OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[jjs]

Tempted to cop some TTD at ~250, but i don’t feel comfortable buying anything in this market lol

 

[206to813]

That reddit post is scary.
Don’t know if any of you guys were around during the 2008 fiasco but if it were to happen again what should we do to protect our 401k and Roth IRA’s

I second this question

Do we change our 401k allocations? Im all in a 2045 target plan right now

want to preserve if/when things keep going south

 

[tkthafm]

I second this question

Do we change our 401k allocations? Im all in a 2045 target plan right now

want to preserve if/when things keep going south

Since you are so far away from touching the money I'd say you're better off doing nothing. If it declines just buy more.

 

[アミーゴ]

I second this question

Do we change our 401k allocations? Im all in a 2045 target plan right now

want to preserve if/when things keep going south

Yeah why not? I moved from super aggressive to a lot of bonds but it’s not needed. I’d also make sure you are set liquidity to buy

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I’m gonna put the cash I’m using for my daughter’s college fund into the account and just waiting for much lower prices before I buy anything. 401k you could probably add some exposure to treasuries they have been killing it.

 

[shibadekobe]

WH panicking over downturn in the economy in coming weeks due to Covid-19, considering stimulus aid to specific sectors - CNBC

 

[tay1]

Stimulus aid again huh?

 

[southernhospita]

Calls bought on expiration date with swing like this are clutch 200% gains left and right you can build a small account to something special with opportunities like this

Calls loaded for next week on LK that got ER next week might get a run up so I can close before it though

 

[degenerate423]

I’m gonna put the cash I’m using for my daughter’s college fund into the account and just waiting for much lower prices before I buy anything. 401k you could probably add some exposure to treasuries they have been killing it.

Hold up, you have a daughter?!

 

[Canadian Destroyer]

I think his name was bridgewater

Yep it was Bridgewater I remember reading that

Yeah why not? I moved from super aggressive to a lot of bonds but it’s not needed. I’d also make sure you are set liquidity to buy

What does that mean

 

[noskey]

Hold up, you have a daughter?!

*** seriously when did this happen Frank??

 

[wballz]

Yep it was Bridgewater I remember reading that

What does that mean

Be mostly cash.

The rest would be in super conservative assets.

 

[アミーゴ]

Yep it was Bridgewater I remember reading that

What does that mean

Checkout some YT videos

 

[johnnyredstorm]

*** seriously when did this happen Frank??

Wife is due in September lol

 

[jjs]

Wife is due in September lol

Congratz

 

[アミーゴ]

Wife is due in September lol

529 setup soon? I’m good for a 50

 

[coolcool]

johnnyredstorm congrats and gl!

question for experienced, if tsla continues crazy growth andkeeps beating guidance and estimates, in this market we are in, will ppl still buy or is the market too much to overcome?

 

[noskey]

Wife is due in September lol

Congrats bro

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Thanks guys. I’ve got some questions about a 529. If they get a full scholarship let’s say, what happens to that money? At the moment my intention was using a regular account so I can create some money for her either for college, an eventual down payment for a house, or some money for a wedding. If I do 529 is that tied up strictly for schooling? What are the tax benefits?

on the flip side

So interesting enough I was very critical of Elon offering $2 billion of stock at the peak, but man he looks like a genius right now by using that money to pay off debt in this very uncertain climate where too much debt can wind up killing companies. I was looking at an article from 2019 about the companies with the most debt. The top ten is filled with all the telecoms and spectrum companies, so debt sucks but those services are much needed and they won’t be allowed to collapse. But then I came across ford’s monster debt levels $55 bill short term, $100 bill long term and they have major credit exposure due to their credit wing. And when going deeper into car loans, I’ve learned the gigantic risk associated with them as a result of people defaulting and being encouraged to do so in a lot of case in order to get a new car. This makes me think Ford is going to go bankrupt as a result of covid potentially. Will America let them? Also Ge is a major debt holder too. And although a lot of companies leveraged their debt for buybacks, like Apple and Microsoft, ge and f aren’t making anywhere near the money or have the cash reserves that those two behemoths do.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

johnnyredstorm congrats and gl!

question for experienced, if tsla continues crazy growth andkeeps beating guidance and estimates, in this market we are in, will ppl still buy or is the market too much to overcome?

I saw a post on Reddit this morning that echoed the same sentiments but used Apple in 2008/9 as a point of reference. Apple got crushed and took a whole year to recover despite being a dominant force with a monster pipeline. If the market is tanking, everything comes down with it. So I wouldn’t go crazy being overweight Tesla now if we continue lower, but you can probably expect a great buying opportunity to take advantage of then.

 

[tkthafm]

Two scenarios I’m preparing for in my mind: A) this is all temporary and economic numbers rebound shortly and we are back to ‘normal’ B) this is actually the start of something very ugly and sustained

In case of A) it’s very simple, I will heavily long the things that fell the most during this scare, as the headlines fade, particularly BRZU, will probably open the largest position in my life on it with a price target of 30+, maybe even with max leverage. If it hits I will make multi-millions.

If B) Just day trade the swings and patiently await scooping up the deals of a lifetime on quality companies.

Ofcourse there’s no way to tell which scenario will be right, i’m maybe 60% to 70% leaning towards B) due to all the underlying structural problems in the repo and bond markets but the real tells will be the jobs numbers, forward guidance, and retail sales numbers in the next month or two.

 

[shibadekobe]

Two scenarios I’m preparing for in my mind: A) this is all temporary and economic numbers rebound shortly and we are back to ‘normal’ B) this is actually the start of something very ugly and sustained

In case of A) it’s very simple, I will heavily long the things that fell the most during this scare, as the headlines fade, particularly BRZU, will probably open the largest position in my life on it with a price target of 30+, maybe even with max leverage. If it hits I will make multi-millions.

If B) Just day trade the swings and patiently await scooping up the deals of a lifetime on quality companies.

Ofcourse there’s no way to tell which scenario will be right, i’m maybe 60% to 70% leaning towards B) due to all the underlying structural problems in the repo and bond markets but the real tells will be the jobs numbers, forward guidance, and retail sales numbers in the next month or two.

JAY POWELL says Scenario A.

 

[tkthafm]

JAY POWELL says Scenario A.

Sounds familiar. I mean the FED does have an amazing track record...

https://money.cnn.com/2008/02/14/news/economy/bernanke_paulson/index.htm

 

[shibadekobe]

Sounds familiar. I mean the FED does have an amazing track record...

https://money.cnn.com/2008/02/14/news/economy/bernanke_paulson/index.htm

"Subprime is contained"

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Two scenarios I’m preparing for in my mind: A) this is all temporary and economic numbers rebound shortly and we are back to ‘normal’ B) this is actually the start of something very ugly and sustained

In case of A) it’s very simple, I will heavily long the things that fell the most during this scare, as the headlines fade, particularly BRZU, will probably open the largest position in my life on it with a price target of 30+, maybe even with max leverage. If it hits I will make multi-millions.

If B) Just day trade the swings and patiently await scooping up the deals of a lifetime on quality companies.

Ofcourse there’s no way to tell which scenario will be right, i’m maybe 60% to 70% leaning towards B) due to all the underlying structural problems in the repo and bond markets but the real tells will be the jobs numbers, forward guidance, and retail sales numbers in the next month or two.

I’m down to the same two ideas as well. When looking at the charts of the holdings inside my funds, a lot of these growth companies are nearing points of support that should encourage either a short term bounce or even a reset of the uptrend. I plan on setting limit orders and alerts at these levels and adding a little bit when they reach to anticipate a bounce, but if we get a break down, it’s going to be option B all the way down. I’m thinking we see downside pressure for another week or two, test these support levels and then we’ll get clarity. Ironically, that’ll probably line up with the next fed meeting and QE.