- 217
- 11
should we wait for a little bounce before we start shorting?
Official Stock Market & Economy Thread
- Thread in 'General' Thread starter Started by dey know yayo,
- Start date
- 4,215
- 40
looks like its time for me to go long.
FDIC given a 500Billion increase in credit limit? something is about to go down.
What does anyone think about silver miners?
- 968
- 11
too extended to short here imo. i'm goign to be heading into the weekend 50% cash and 50% betting against the euro with a VERY tight stoploss.
- 35
- 10
Too you see next week with the fed buying many treasuries as hurting the dollar?
cronicmole
Banned
- 854
- 11
- 21,365
- 812
man oh man, FAZ is ridic!
- 1,296
- 11
I hate to call you out on this Yayo but you told people including yourself to go all cash during inauguration week when there was massive intervention,liquidating your commercial real estate holdings. There's no denial though that commercial real estate will fall even further and harder than the rest,except for maybe insurers.
- 4,215
- 40
Yup going to be a lot of defaults on bonds coming down the pipe.
- 2,028
- 19
okay i'm a first time invester, should I invest in gold coins? i'm just interested as to how you guys started? i'm in the UK so it may be differentover here in London
- 1,296
- 11
Yes you should. The pound isn't the same anymore, Britain's in a lot of trouble, so moving your wealth from the pound to gold is a solidplay. I'm not too familiar with British companies, but shorting British Banks right now is a great play, Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyd's. Ithink DKY had a list of European companies to short, look for that.
- 8,172
- 5,370
Tell me about it. Got into FAZ at 58 and I'm riding this mutha all the way.
I got in at SRS at 67 a while back then sold at 75 for some good profit...
Unfortunately it kept going up and up and up and I've been waiting for an opening to get back in but I bit the bullet and just got in @ 100today...
Hoping it doesn't come back to hurt me...
...
- 968
- 11
Total truth. Everything I've said can be found by a simple search and I definitely did leave the shorting commercial real estate idea for along time. I also became bullish on the market February 6, expecting a braek of the 50DMA after a small pullback. That can be found in previous posts.
But then the "pullback" was a big breakdown on big volume and I turned neutral waitign for an opportunity. February 17 I turned bearish on the biggap down and breakdown below the descending triangle I had been posting. That's when I told everyone to turn 100% bearish against the stocks I always listas bearish, including commercial real estate.
If you are playing stocks longer term, willing to hold longs and shorts for months at a time, what I said about commercial real estate never lost relevance.The liquidation I recommended during inauguration week was strictly timing. The thesis remained, I jsut said we'd have to wait off for the big move down tocome and if you are trading time sensitive securities like options, you can't just hold and wait.
I wanted to clear this up in case people thought I was getting whipsawed with my ideas. I've been wrong about timing all the time,and I don't claim tobe a perfect trader. But when the big moves do come, I'm right on the money and also my ideas behind what will happen on the long term do come through.
reigndrop, i appreciate you saying that and you were 100% right about what i said. the transparency is there-- look through the thread, everything i'vesaid is still there.
my point though is this--
i may not have been clear about this before, but this is how it goes with following my advice:
when i make a big, repeated trade thesis, like commercial real estate, i wholly believe it will occur eventually. timing it is a matter of technical analysisand sometimes i will be right and sometimes i will be wrong. if you trade quick moving time-sensitive securities like options, you have to be very precise. ifyou are an active trader, shorting and holding is an opportunity cost for the bounce you could have been playing. but for the more passive investor, when iwrite an article or make a speficic, repeated thesis, i expect you to profit big from it eventually if you follow that thesis the day i tell you about it.
also, when big moves are coming, you will notice i start getting excited and more and more right with everything i say and more and mroe willing to makespecific target points as well as putting more into positions and making more money. tihs is one of those times. the last time i felt this confident about themarket was the lehman brothers collapse and subsequent stock market crash.
insurers are toast and even if you short all the way down here, eventually it will be very profitable. but i think you can time it even better if you wait fora couple days' bounce. that's an example of what i'm trying to say.
my outlook from here... the 6500 support level did indeed hold up, like i expected. i expect a bounce early next week into mid next week. what i'm hopingfor are small up days monday-wedensday/thursday, with maybe one or two small down days in between. just make a bear flag. then friday a big drop, gap down onmonday (a week from this coming monday), and mini-crash. if we hit panic mode this weekend because of something, we will have a big down move on monday and illbe shorting right at open next week.
i also think that very bearish news for europe will occur in the next 2-3 weekends. i'm really expecting it to occur a week from this coming weekend. thisshold cause the euro to go down very much very fasst. something along the lines of:
- eastern european nation default or debt restructuring
- ECB annnounces quantitative easing to finance eastern european bailout
- IMF bails out an eastern european nation via ECB quantitative easing proxy
- western european bank with eastern european exposure goes under or is nationalized by at least 80%
on september 17, when lehman collapsed, gold skyrocketed in value as people flocked out of government-issued securities (sovereign debt and fiat currencies)and all that excess liquidity went into gold. if one of the european situations i listed above happens, that cuold happen again with gold, a big move up forone day and then a sell off back to original levels.
airlines, insurers, commercial real estate, american banks, european banks, educations, and securities exchanges are the best stocks to short.
-airlines have mad debt, very little equity (just emerged from bankruptcies in 2007), and have a huge unfrotunate bad exposure to falling crude prices (theyhave a ton of crude future positions as hedges from rising oil prices during the oil bubble)
-insurers have huge exposure to falling american treasuries as well as equity funds, and are basically run like banks, with huge debt collateralized with toxicassets. prudential got its credit rating cut lately, disqualifying it from commercial paper funding facility (CPFF), which is essentially the lifeline toinsolvent financials. prudential (pru), allstate (all), hartford (hig), and metlife (met) are all possible AIGs.
-commercial real estate faces a wave of defaults soon as debts mature. because of the credit crisis, WACC is rising, so cap rates are rising, causing propertyvalues to decline even more. the problem with REITs is they are essentially extremely overleveraged CDOs. the D from CDO, debt, is massive in REITs, andexponentially more considering the leverage. teh C, collateral, is the commerical real estate property itself, which like i said is tanking in value because ofrising cap rates and because of retailers going out of business.
-american banks... if you don't know by now, yuo probably should get out of this thread.
-european banks have two problems: 1. they of course have their domestic subprime and credit crisis issues. on top of that, europan banks (mainly westerneuropean) have leveraged exposure to eastern european toxic assets. western european banks have 16.3 trillion pounds worth of toxic eastern european assets.that amoutns to a lot of equity decline once that is realized/written off. this is occurring as eastern europe is in crisis and loses value even more.
-education stocks are a group not being talked abuot. a good example of a stock i think is oging to tank is apollo group (apol). it owns univ of phoenix.people who enrolled in these types of schools were older people who never got competetive eductations before, people who arel ooking for an alternative tonormal college, and people who work by day and want to get a night-school degree. much of this was financed by student loans, as people were jumping into thisidea because they had a little extra cash. no one has cash left, no one has time (everyone is tryign to work as much as possible instead o ftaking time off fora dregree), and the studentloan crisis is just gettign under way and will hit the less afluent worst, which is what these education comanies mainly caters to.imagine a driven, motivated 25 year old in a poorer, rural area. this person took out a subprime loan so he could get a house, and took out a student loan sohe could go to school by night and work by day. now that subprime has collapsed, he's losing his house, he has no money, he's working overtime to paythe bills, and an extra degree is the last of his priorities.
- securities exchanges operate and profit off of market liquidity. the moer transactions occur, the more money they make. as more and more people flock out ofequities, liquidity goes down and exchanges lose value. this will really become an issue once the ETF bubble collapses, as many of them are ponzi schemes thatwill eventually be uncovered (USO is already under investigation, in fact).
bullish on:
- precious metals miners... duh.
- eventually certain commodities, like oil and ags/ferts. eventually. defnitely not yet. although oil is coming around and maybe a good play in just a fewweeks' time.
- 968
- 11
the best stocks to short, all those industries i listed above, are all essentially the same...
they are one big CDO with massive debt, massive leverage multiplying the debt, and toxic assets with tanking value collateralizing the massive debt.
i'm expecting SRS to pullback to around 88-90 and it's goign to take off to 140+ from there imo. SKF a pullback to 210 would be great. FAZ pullback to80 would be great. great buy poitns.
once the VIX hits 75-80ish again (if it does, that would require a big move down, which i am looking for), I'll get SKF puts and go long. that shuold be anintermediate term bottom.
they are one big CDO with massive debt, massive leverage multiplying the debt, and toxic assets with tanking value collateralizing the massive debt.
i'm expecting SRS to pullback to around 88-90 and it's goign to take off to 140+ from there imo. SKF a pullback to 210 would be great. FAZ pullback to80 would be great. great buy poitns.
once the VIX hits 75-80ish again (if it does, that would require a big move down, which i am looking for), I'll get SKF puts and go long. that shuold be anintermediate term bottom.
- 2,028
- 19
so for instance if i was to short on American Airlines, how much lower would you go points wise?
(if i sound ridiculous it's because i am a total novice, i am just appreciating your knowledgeable words)
(if i sound ridiculous it's because i am a total novice, i am just appreciating your knowledgeable words)
- 968
- 11
who knows, AMR is down huge already. eventually definitely could be below $1 though. might take a while for that.
- 2,028
- 19
have you already got money invested in gold? where did you choose to do it online?
- 35
- 10
Yayo, how much did you end up selling the Euro? And what price did you get in at?
- 2,028
- 19
last question for awhile, what is the best broker for shorting US stocks? which i can use as i live in London.
- 1,296
- 11
No, don't take it personally, I completely understand what you're saying and I still have a great deal of respect for you. You have beenright on just about everything, and the fact that your off here and there on timing just shows a little bit of your human side haha. I never thought you weregetting whipsawed, just wanted to point that out. BTW, you'd be great addition to our team if you ever decide to change your mind and not do corporatelaw.
- 1,296
- 11
Anybody's guess at this point. FYI, learn to play percentage gains/losses, not points. It'll help you out a great deal in the future.
- 21,365
- 812
check out the perth mint, they have distributors that sell gold. i chose one that's local.
- 5,485
- 14
Yayo,
What do you think about this March 12th mark to market hearing. The timing is pretty nutty considering that we're on the verge of a massive drop again.
I doubt they suspend M2M before a crash but if they do, do you think it'll be bullish for the market considering it won't change anything fundamentallyin relation to actual debt levels and insolvency. Asset levels aren't coming anywhere near peak levels for decades (in real terms). Or do you believe thatthe event that catalyzes a crash will overshadow.
I might be nuts but I think they know a crash is coming and they'll suspend M2M after the crash to put in a somewhat sustainable bottom.
It's interesting that after all these months they have set a hearing now for M2M which is telling.
What do you think about this March 12th mark to market hearing. The timing is pretty nutty considering that we're on the verge of a massive drop again.
I doubt they suspend M2M before a crash but if they do, do you think it'll be bullish for the market considering it won't change anything fundamentallyin relation to actual debt levels and insolvency. Asset levels aren't coming anywhere near peak levels for decades (in real terms). Or do you believe thatthe event that catalyzes a crash will overshadow.
I might be nuts but I think they know a crash is coming and they'll suspend M2M after the crash to put in a somewhat sustainable bottom.
It's interesting that after all these months they have set a hearing now for M2M which is telling.
- 1,296
- 11
Funny how I was emailing a colleague about this this morning, and I have my doubts about them suspending it also. First off, if they do indeedsuspend it next Friday, what will they revert too then to value assets? This administration has proven that it has no plan yet in regards to the banks, so forit to have some sort of plan in regards to M2M would be eyepopping. That's the biggest pet peave right now, they might suspend it, but unless they haveplan to revert to some other method of accounting in the near term, the market will not be bullish.
- 6,870
- 16,756
DKY, damn man you and Peter Shiff and other Austrian school investors are scaring me.
It is one thing to hear predictions of doom and gloom pundits and politicians, who tend to have an incentive to be pessimistic instead of accurate but whenpeople who are Austrian school economists and investors say that things will be getting worse for a while, it is cause for concern. Thanks for the heads up onthese things though.
I agree with your approach to economics and I really like your approach to looking at finance. You think logically, look at the big picture, analyzedispassionately and best of all you do not treat investment like some ultra macho species of gambling or sports betting, you do not claim that you can predicteverything with pin point accuracy and you are not dazzled by financial gimmicks and mathematical formulae that have not basis in economics or common sense.
Keep up the good work, general clairvoyance is far better than baseless and blustery claims of perfect prognostication.
It is one thing to hear predictions of doom and gloom pundits and politicians, who tend to have an incentive to be pessimistic instead of accurate but whenpeople who are Austrian school economists and investors say that things will be getting worse for a while, it is cause for concern. Thanks for the heads up onthese things though.
I agree with your approach to economics and I really like your approach to looking at finance. You think logically, look at the big picture, analyzedispassionately and best of all you do not treat investment like some ultra macho species of gambling or sports betting, you do not claim that you can predicteverything with pin point accuracy and you are not dazzled by financial gimmicks and mathematical formulae that have not basis in economics or common sense.
Keep up the good work, general clairvoyance is far better than baseless and blustery claims of perfect prognostication.
- 78
- 10
It's hard to believe that they'll have anything planned. Wasn't the lack of mark to market the reason financials got in trouble inthe first place? If anything I think that a suspension will only cause a minor bear rally then crash. A suspension would be temporary good news for themarket, but I think capitulation will come following more bad news.
Quoted from house.gov:
Washington, DC - Congressman Paul E. Kanjorski (D-PA), Chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and GovernmentSponsored Enterprises, today announced that the Subcommittee will hold a hearing to examine the mark-to-market accounting rules that many contend haveexacerbated the current troubles in the financial industry and in the broader economy. The standard requires companies to value assets they hold at currentmarket values. For assets that are frozen and have a diminished current market value but may recover value in the future, the standard has proven problematic.Companies are then forced to write-down billions in assets, which can lead to further write-downs elsewhere.
"Illiquid markets have resulted in greatdifficulty in valuing sizable assets. Some have therefore complained about fair value accounting and sought to eliminate it. While companies need stability,investors still need accurate information. We therefore cannot allow for fantasy accounting that wishes away bad assets by merely concealing them," saidChairman Kanjorski. "As a result, we will seek at this hearing to engage in a constructive, thoughtful conversation with a diverse range of viewpointsaimed at identifying fair-minded, incremental, and achievable fixes to this problem. In short, I want to find a way - within the existing independentstandard-setting structure - to still provide investors with the information needed to make effective decisions without continuing to impose undue burdens onfinancial institutions. Each of our anticipated witnesses will have the opportunity to contribute as we all pursue consensus solutions together to thisthorny, contentious issue."
