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something i need to learn as well
Official Stock Market & Economy Thread
- Thread in 'General' Thread starter Started by dey know yayo,
- Start date
Originally Posted by theone2401
Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by reigndrop
I'm not gonna even bother arguing. Sure, the focus of his Ph.D was on the Great Depression, and he was a great pupil of Milton Friedman, who blamed the Depression on deflation, but we've put $10 trillion into this mess. That's almost 100% of GDP. We aren't Iceland but we soon will be when our creditors dump out treasuries and bonds.Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by reigndrop
Might want to check this post
http://market-ticker.denn...ntitative-Easing-QE.html
Bernanke got smoked out of this one. He needs to stop living in the 1930's and move to the 21st century.
We're doomed, literally. What are you slurping on?Who cares if the equities rally anymore, will they be able to outpace inflation in the long term??
@ the "we're doomed". And how exactly did Bernanke get "smoked"?
We aren't Iceland AND I didn't mention anything about long term growth in the stock market.
BTW, the great thing is that Bernanke studied the Great Depression. You should read some of his speeches some time. The smartest move Bush made in his entire presidency was to appoint Bernanke Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Who's going to dump treasuries, and what are they going to buy instead?
Who China? Won't happen. China wouldn't like us putting a quotas and tariffs on their goods in retaliation. Or if we made it much more "difficult" for our large corporations to outsource.
India? Also won't happen
This is very foolish. Who is going to dump treasuries? EVERYONE because the government has promised to overpay for them. You would be an idiot not to sell them. Interest rates are going to rise because no one is going to jip themselves buying treasuries for no return because the rates are being held down by Bernanke when the currency is losing value. Bernanke's knowledge of the Great Depression obviously hasnt been that beneficial because all he is doing is ensuring we have another one. So now debt is going to increase exponentially until the bond market pukes because you cannot borrow to prosperity or it wont puke and he is just going to crowd out private investment. It's not that complicatied. The kind of "inflation" Bernanke is trying to start is not going to benefit anyone who saved dollars how could anyone even believe such nonsense. There is no free lunch this is a insolvency crisis not liquidity. The common cliche is "pushing on a string".
Big +!%#+*# Deal people can refinance at 4% besides the fact most people cannot afford that anyway...unless the government is going to subsidize this interest rate ETERNALLY when those people sell rates will be higher and they will get raped on the back end. All of this will be paid for one way or the other at the expense of growth.
No one is going to dump treasuries and debt is not increasing exponentially as a result of the Fed's open market transactions. Stop crying, there is noGreat Depression coming despite how loud you scream. There hasn't been one since the 1930's.
Please let me know when one person "dumps" treasuries. I'll still be here.
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You do realize quantitative easing has never worked, even if it is of the credit market variety?
What follows quantitative easing is never pretty.
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Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by theone2401
Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by reigndrop
I'm not gonna even bother arguing. Sure, the focus of his Ph.D was on the Great Depression, and he was a great pupil of Milton Friedman, who blamed the Depression on deflation, but we've put $10 trillion into this mess. That's almost 100% of GDP. We aren't Iceland but we soon will be when our creditors dump out treasuries and bonds.Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by reigndrop
Might want to check this post
http://market-ticker.denn...ntitative-Easing-QE.html
Bernanke got smoked out of this one. He needs to stop living in the 1930's and move to the 21st century.
We're doomed, literally. What are you slurping on?Who cares if the equities rally anymore, will they be able to outpace inflation in the long term??
@ the "we're doomed". And how exactly did Bernanke get "smoked"?
We aren't Iceland AND I didn't mention anything about long term growth in the stock market.
BTW, the great thing is that Bernanke studied the Great Depression. You should read some of his speeches some time. The smartest move Bush made in his entire presidency was to appoint Bernanke Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Who's going to dump treasuries, and what are they going to buy instead?
Who China? Won't happen. China wouldn't like us putting a quotas and tariffs on their goods in retaliation. Or if we made it much more "difficult" for our large corporations to outsource.
India? Also won't happen
This is very foolish. Who is going to dump treasuries? EVERYONE because the government has promised to overpay for them. You would be an idiot not to sell them. Interest rates are going to rise because no one is going to jip themselves buying treasuries for no return because the rates are being held down by Bernanke when the currency is losing value. Bernanke's knowledge of the Great Depression obviously hasnt been that beneficial because all he is doing is ensuring we have another one. So now debt is going to increase exponentially until the bond market pukes because you cannot borrow to prosperity or it wont puke and he is just going to crowd out private investment. It's not that complicatied. The kind of "inflation" Bernanke is trying to start is not going to benefit anyone who saved dollars how could anyone even believe such nonsense. There is no free lunch this is a insolvency crisis not liquidity. The common cliche is "pushing on a string".
Big +!%#+*# Deal people can refinance at 4% besides the fact most people cannot afford that anyway...unless the government is going to subsidize this interest rate ETERNALLY when those people sell rates will be higher and they will get raped on the back end. All of this will be paid for one way or the other at the expense of growth.
No one is going to dump treasuries and debt is not increasing exponentially as a result of the Fed's open market transactions. Stop crying, there is no Great Depression coming despite how loud you scream. There hasn't been one since the 1930's.
Please let me know when one person "dumps" treasuries. I'll still be here.
cguy ... the Chinese Premier warned the US that it is worried about its overspending and devaluing of the dollar. They can definitely start dumpingtreasury bonds, call in their debt, and refuse to take fiat currency as payment. Do YOU have any clue how the Federal Reserve works? Inflation is a directresult of the Federal Reserve inflating the money supply. Not anything else. Bernanke is trying to put out a fire with gasoline. It's not going to work. We MIGHT see a huge boom, followed by an even bigger bust. Over, and over. Bernanke still has no clue what got us in the Great Depression, or what finallygot us out.
Originally Posted by CUE45
Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by theone2401
Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by reigndrop
I'm not gonna even bother arguing. Sure, the focus of his Ph.D was on the Great Depression, and he was a great pupil of Milton Friedman, who blamed the Depression on deflation, but we've put $10 trillion into this mess. That's almost 100% of GDP. We aren't Iceland but we soon will be when our creditors dump out treasuries and bonds.Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by reigndrop
Might want to check this post
http://market-ticker.denn...ntitative-Easing-QE.html
Bernanke got smoked out of this one. He needs to stop living in the 1930's and move to the 21st century.
We're doomed, literally. What are you slurping on?Who cares if the equities rally anymore, will they be able to outpace inflation in the long term??
@ the "we're doomed". And how exactly did Bernanke get "smoked"?
We aren't Iceland AND I didn't mention anything about long term growth in the stock market.
BTW, the great thing is that Bernanke studied the Great Depression. You should read some of his speeches some time. The smartest move Bush made in his entire presidency was to appoint Bernanke Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Who's going to dump treasuries, and what are they going to buy instead?
Who China? Won't happen. China wouldn't like us putting a quotas and tariffs on their goods in retaliation. Or if we made it much more "difficult" for our large corporations to outsource.
India? Also won't happen
This is very foolish. Who is going to dump treasuries? EVERYONE because the government has promised to overpay for them. You would be an idiot not to sell them. Interest rates are going to rise because no one is going to jip themselves buying treasuries for no return because the rates are being held down by Bernanke when the currency is losing value. Bernanke's knowledge of the Great Depression obviously hasnt been that beneficial because all he is doing is ensuring we have another one. So now debt is going to increase exponentially until the bond market pukes because you cannot borrow to prosperity or it wont puke and he is just going to crowd out private investment. It's not that complicatied. The kind of "inflation" Bernanke is trying to start is not going to benefit anyone who saved dollars how could anyone even believe such nonsense. There is no free lunch this is a insolvency crisis not liquidity. The common cliche is "pushing on a string".
Big +!%#+*# Deal people can refinance at 4% besides the fact most people cannot afford that anyway...unless the government is going to subsidize this interest rate ETERNALLY when those people sell rates will be higher and they will get raped on the back end. All of this will be paid for one way or the other at the expense of growth.
No one is going to dump treasuries and debt is not increasing exponentially as a result of the Fed's open market transactions. Stop crying, there is no Great Depression coming despite how loud you scream. There hasn't been one since the 1930's.
Please let me know when one person "dumps" treasuries. I'll still be here.
cguy ... the Chinese Premier warned the US that it is worried about its overspending and devaluing of the dollar. They can definitely start dumping treasury bonds, call in their debt, and refuse to take fiat currency as payment. Do YOU have any clue how the Federal Reserve works? Inflation is a direct result of the Federal Reserve inflating the money supply. Not anything else. Bernanke is trying to put out a fire with gasoline. It's not going to work. We MIGHT see a huge boom, followed by an even bigger bust. Over, and over. Bernanke still has no clue what got us in the Great Depression, or what finally got us out.
Not even worth responding to.
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Can someone explain in elementary terms what happened today and what the ramifications will or could be?
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You mind listing the instances where quant easing has worked/is working?
If quant easing is a policy of "last resort" than ummmm..........why the *%$@ is it the "policy of last resort" if it has worked so well?
Shouldn't it be the policy of "first resort"?
If quant easing has worked for such a "long time" then why has quant easing led to disastrous consequences at least since the French Revolution?
Quantitative easing is about as successful as 0% fractional reserve banking.
You can't beat deflation (natural correction) without serious consequences. Quant easing attempts top reflate bubbles. A bit of an irony, isn' it?
Of course you won't see the consequences in the very near term. Everything will be peachy!
You have so much faith in your government and central bank.
Originally Posted by wawaweewa
You mind listing the instances where quant easing has worked/is working?
If quant easing is a policy of "last resort" than ummmm..........why the *%$@ is it the "policy of last resort" if it has worked so well?
Shouldn't it be the policy of "first resort"?
If quant easing has worked for such a "long time" then why has quant easing led to disastrous consequences at least since the French Revolution?
Quantitative easing is about as successful as 0% fractional reserve banking.
You can't beat deflation (natural correction) without serious consequences. Quant easing attempts top reflate bubbles. A bit of an irony, isn' it?
Of course you won't see the consequences in the very near term. Everything will be peachy!
You have so much faith in your government and central bank.
Quantitative easing has been proven to lower interest rates and increase/inflate the money supply. http://www.realtor.org/research/commentary_lower_mtg_rates
Could you give some examples of these "disasters" caused by quantitative easing. And isn't that what we want, for things to be peachy in thenear term?
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Who gives a @*#@ about lower interest rates? Of course fraud Realtors love this ++%%. They perpetrated mass fraud for close to 5 years during thebubble. They're good at it by now.
This garbage is theater for the public.
You can have 0% interest and if people are losing their jobs, worried about losing their jobs, taking wage cuts, or taking cuts in hours (another form of wagecuts) then they won't borrow no matter the rate.
Same goes for banks lending to insolvent consumers or insolvent banks lending to insolvent consumers.
This is not a problem about consumer credit, deflating housing market, or tightened lending rules. The end of the housing bubble facilitated this crash but thecause of our current problems are the previous bubbles themselves. It's a problem that can only be solved throughthe natural corrective process of deflation.
To see what quant easing does look at the French Revolution (issuance of Assignants) and Japanese stagnation from '01 easing onward among others and these2 are some of the "better" scenarios.
Quantitative easing is a desperation measure to ward of deflation.
However, you can't 'beat' deflation because if you do ward off deflation you'll have nasty inflation and a stagnant economy for years.
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For quant easing to work in this case the Fed will have to buy trillions upon trillions in US debt in the coming years.
This was a global bubble of epic proportions.
This was a global bubble of epic proportions.
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Why would you hold on to a short for six months?
Financials are way up again in after market trading. I'm tempted to get in, because I think this will continue for a little bit. Could make a decent profitin a short time.
This has to come to an end though. I can't believe it's already gone on this long.
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Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by CUE45
Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by theone2401
Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by reigndrop
I'm not gonna even bother arguing. Sure, the focus of his Ph.D was on the Great Depression, and he was a great pupil of Milton Friedman, who blamed the Depression on deflation, but we've put $10 trillion into this mess. That's almost 100% of GDP. We aren't Iceland but we soon will be when our creditors dump out treasuries and bonds.Originally Posted by cguy610
Originally Posted by reigndrop
Might want to check this post
http://market-ticker.denn...ntitative-Easing-QE.html
Bernanke got smoked out of this one. He needs to stop living in the 1930's and move to the 21st century.
We're doomed, literally. What are you slurping on?Who cares if the equities rally anymore, will they be able to outpace inflation in the long term??
@ the "we're doomed". And how exactly did Bernanke get "smoked"?
We aren't Iceland AND I didn't mention anything about long term growth in the stock market.
BTW, the great thing is that Bernanke studied the Great Depression. You should read some of his speeches some time. The smartest move Bush made in his entire presidency was to appoint Bernanke Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Who's going to dump treasuries, and what are they going to buy instead?
Who China? Won't happen. China wouldn't like us putting a quotas and tariffs on their goods in retaliation. Or if we made it much more "difficult" for our large corporations to outsource.
India? Also won't happen
This is very foolish. Who is going to dump treasuries? EVERYONE because the government has promised to overpay for them. You would be an idiot not to sell them. Interest rates are going to rise because no one is going to jip themselves buying treasuries for no return because the rates are being held down by Bernanke when the currency is losing value. Bernanke's knowledge of the Great Depression obviously hasnt been that beneficial because all he is doing is ensuring we have another one. So now debt is going to increase exponentially until the bond market pukes because you cannot borrow to prosperity or it wont puke and he is just going to crowd out private investment. It's not that complicatied. The kind of "inflation" Bernanke is trying to start is not going to benefit anyone who saved dollars how could anyone even believe such nonsense. There is no free lunch this is a insolvency crisis not liquidity. The common cliche is "pushing on a string".
Big +!%#+*# Deal people can refinance at 4% besides the fact most people cannot afford that anyway...unless the government is going to subsidize this interest rate ETERNALLY when those people sell rates will be higher and they will get raped on the back end. All of this will be paid for one way or the other at the expense of growth.
No one is going to dump treasuries and debt is not increasing exponentially as a result of the Fed's open market transactions. Stop crying, there is no Great Depression coming despite how loud you scream. There hasn't been one since the 1930's.
Please let me know when one person "dumps" treasuries. I'll still be here.
cguy ... the Chinese Premier warned the US that it is worried about its overspending and devaluing of the dollar. They can definitely start dumping treasury bonds, call in their debt, and refuse to take fiat currency as payment. Do YOU have any clue how the Federal Reserve works? Inflation is a direct result of the Federal Reserve inflating the money supply. Not anything else. Bernanke is trying to put out a fire with gasoline. It's not going to work. We MIGHT see a huge boom, followed by an even bigger bust. Over, and over. Bernanke still has no clue what got us in the Great Depression, or what finally got us out.
Not even worth responding to.
Way to dodge the second part of that comment. Just like Bernanke!
All I gotta say is: Nikkei close at 38,915.90 in 1989. What is it trading at today? Oh yeah, just shy below 8000! That is what deficit spending, government intervention, inflation by the Fed, and artificial lowering of interest rates by the Fed will likely do to our stockmarket. Think it can't/won't happen here?
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Im wishing i bought more shares of citi at 99 cents
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Cats on hear swear their economists and understand monetary policy its actually hilarious to sit back and see. Read a few articles on inflation and the greatdepression and instantly their mini Milton Friedmans
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If this is bad for financials, they will be much lower 6 months from now, right? You don't like to make money?
Bank of America up 20% yesterday and another 4% today in premarket trading.
SKF down 20% yesterday.
...because shorting in a bear market rally (which usually extends as far as 25%) is suicidal.
On the other hand, the vast majority of longs will overstay their welcome and watch their gains evaporate in a matter of days.
Bear market rallies are spectacles of mass delusion and when the bulls realize, "oh !%*%, it ain't good at all", they'll sell their holdingsfaster than the the onset of the upcoming currency and trade wars.
I'm long a bit btw. I'll try not to overstay my welcome.
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Anyone else trying to play Citi? This thing is moving around so crazy this morning..no idea what to do. Just trying to break even (reached 3.80 a hour agonow down to 3.34 @ 10:27)...but the thing is moving all over the place. Must be all the hedge funds playing this..
Did anyone get in when it was at 0.97 cents? Wish I had..
Did anyone get in when it was at 0.97 cents? Wish I had..
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i got it at 99 cents....but its whatever im losing so much money its good to see some change literally
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Originally Posted by NostrandAve68
Cats onhearhere sweartheirthey're economists and understand monetary policy its actually hilarious to sit back and see. Read a few articles on inflation and the great depression and instantly their mini Milton Friedmans
You might want to do some reading yourself. A basic grammar book, perhaps?
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Being an "intellectual/professor" economist is not a good thing.Originally Posted by NostrandAve68
Cats on hear swear their economists and understand monetary policy its actually hilarious to sit back and see. Read a few articles on inflation and the great depression and instantly their mini Milton Friedmans
Show me even a few economists that actually made loads of money in real world markets. Most individuals who made tons of coin in markets were far from yourtypical "intellectual" economists who push *+!%$%$! theories and delusional formulas that do not take into account how markets/ human psychologyactually work.
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Seriously, all this doom and gloom is for a different thread.
BTW, I'm out FAS. I had planned to wait near close, but the early dropped convinced me to get out while I still had a profit.
BTW, I'm out FAS. I had planned to wait near close, but the early dropped convinced me to get out while I still had a profit.
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Since when does commentary on the market(s) equal "doom and gloom".
There will be a crash starting in 2-3 months that will put the SnP around the 500 level eventually. In the meantime we have ourselves a bear rally.
