The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

Projecting The Top 50 Players In The 2015 NBA Draft Class

paine-bradshaw-nba-draft-model.png


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/
 
If Towns keeps on wearing those stupid ******* glasses, it will make losing him on the Knicks a lot easier 
 
Cavs look to upgrade by shopping Brendan Haywood, draft pick

Days after the end of the Finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers are working on upgrading their roster by shopping the potentially valuable contract of Brendan Haywood, and -- in some cases -- offering it along with the 24th overall pick in Thursday's draft, sources told ESPN.com.

Haywood's $10.5 million contract is not guaranteed for next season if he's waived by Aug. 2. This could be attractive to a team looking to either offload salary now or use it as part of another deal that could be executed during free agency in July.

The Cavs have tested the market in swapping Haywood either for a player or a future draft pick, sources said. On their wish list is a facilitating guard they can bring in to either back up or play alongside Kyrie Irving. The Cavs have a number of free agents, including backup point guard Matthew Dellavedova and starting shooting guard Iman Shumpert.

General manager David Griffin said Thursday he'd be looking to add more facilitators this summer, especially after the Golden State Warriors hurt the Cavs in the Finals with their various playmakers.

"The one thing that we did see in Golden State, and it was something that was very difficult for us to deal with, is they have an incredibly versatile team of multiple facilitating playmakers," Griffin said. "That's something we're going to continue to work upon. The more playmaking facilitators you have that know how to play the game, the better off you are, and I think you saw the value of that in the team that ultimately did win."

Any trade involving the Cavs' first-round pick could not be executed until after the draft. They are precluded from trading their pick before making the selection because they already traded their 2016 first-round pick in the deal to acquire Kevin Love last summer. That pick now belongs to Philadelphia.

Another asset the Cavs could use in a deal this summer are the rights to Russian center Sasha Kaun. The 30-year-old Kaun, who played at Kansas, was drafted in the second round in 2008. He played the last seven seasons for CSKA Moscow but is now a free agent and wants to come to the NBA. He averaged 9.9 points and 4.5 rebounds in 30 Euroleague games this season and projects as a backup in the NBA.
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http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/1...ade-brendan-haywood-draft-pick-upgrade-roster
 
I don't see any way D'Angelo Russell isn't a star. Too savvy, too skilled, and too good a shooter not to. Instincts that can't be taught. Not to mention excellent size to play either position in the backcourt.
 
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6 MAN said:
I don't see any way D'Angelo Russell isn't a star. Too savvy, too skilled, and too good a shooter not to. Instincts that can't be taught. Not to mention excellent size to play either position in the backcourt.
Click to expand...
You never know what can happen with any of these players given the unpredictability of the draft process. But I agree that DLo has as good/better of a chance than anybody to be a star in this league, and it would surprise me very much if he didnt pan out.

Saying that he has more "Bust %" than "Starter %" is an absolute joke IMO.
 
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How the pros do it: Ranking NBA draft prospects by tiers

Consensus is a word that should be used carefully when you talk about the NBA draft.

Occasionally a prospect emerges who is so clearly better than anyone else in the draft (see Anthony Davis in 2012, Blake Griffin in 2009, LeBron James in 2003, Yao Ming in 2002, Tim Duncan in 1997, Shaquille O'Neal in 1992), but more often, if you put 10 GMs into a room and ask them who the best player in the draft is, you'll get three or four answers.

The debates get louder and more diverse as you move further down the draft.

This year is no exception. With less than a week to go before the draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves are debating whom to take at No. 1 -- Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor or D'Angelo Russell. If the Wolves, who employ dozens of full-time pros who work at this all year, can't figure it out, how can we create a consensus ranking?

We want to believe that there's a Big Board in the sky that knows all. It doesn't exist. Reasonable minds can differ on prospects, and as much as we all love ranking players 1-100, it's not the best or most preferred way to do it.

This year, five players have a case to be picked No. 1 -- Towns, Okafor, Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay and Kristaps Porzingis.

Whom do you choose to draft? And how?

NBA teams watch prospects play thousands of hours of games. They go to practice and camps. Hire guys from MIT to create statistical solutions. Work out players, give them psychological tests, do background checks and conduct personal interviews. And, still, there is very little consensus.

Factor in the debate between taking the best player available and which player a team needs most, and the situation further muddies itself.

To make sense of all this, the past few years I've chronicled a draft ranking system called the tier system, which several teams employ.

By this method, teams group players into tiers based on overall talent, then rank the players in each tier based on team need. A more detailed explanation of how the system works can be found here.

So how do things break down? After I talked to several GMs and scouts whose teams employ this system, here is how the tiers look this year.

Players are listed alphabetically in each tier.

Tier 1

Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky

Note: Ahead of last year's draft, we had three players in this category: Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker. This category usually is reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players. Just three other players since we started this column in 2009 -- Griffin, John Wall and Davis -- have been ranked in this slot. You have to be elite to get here.

This year was one of the toughest yet. Five players were nominated for Tier 1 by various teams. However, only one player was consistently mentioned by all of them: Towns. Although some teams don't see major separation between him and the players in Tier 2, others feel that there's a gap and that he's the only one in the draft who has the potential to be a top-10 player in the league.

Tier 2

Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Congo

Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke

Kristaps Porzingis, F/C, Latvia

D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State

Note: This is a very strong Tier 2. Mudiay, Okafor, Porzingis and Russell all have a claim to be the No. 1 pick. In fact, Okafor was the favorite to be the No. 1 pick since July, and several teams put Russell on par with Towns. Both received votes for Tier 1 but not enough to move them up.

Tier 2 is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player on the list has a weakness that some teams feel will keep them from being a superstar. For Mudiay, it's shooting. For Okafor and Russell, it's athleticism and defense. For Porzingis, it's a thin body and questionable position. Nevertheless, each of the four has a strength that should propel him to an All-Star Game in his career.

One fun note: Last year we wrote the column before Porzingis, then regarded as a Tier 4 prospect, had withdrawn from the draft. So he's jumped up two tiers.

Tier 3

Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Kentucky

Mario Hezonja, G/F, Croatia

Justise Winslow, G/F, Duke

Note: This is a very strong Tier 3, as well. Hezonja and Winslow received Tier 2 votes from teams. However, both fell just short of the cut.

This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers. All three players should go in the top 10. Hezonja, especially, has some star appeal. Having eight players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft, but not quite as strong as the 2014 draft, which had 12 players in the first three tiers.

Tier 4

Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky

Sam Dekker, F, Wisconsin

Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame

Stanley Johnson, G/F, Arizona

Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin

Kevon Looney, F, UCLA

Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky

Kelly Oubre, G/F, Kansas

Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State

Bobby Portis, PF, Arkanas

Myles Turner, F/C, Texas

Note: Tier 4 typically is late-lottery to mid-first-round selections in a normal draft -- selections 10 through 20. This year, that tier is roughly 9-19 on our Big Board. Lots of talented players in this tier project to be starters or high-level rotation players.

Here, even the consensus in tiers starts to break down.

Guys really are all over the place. Booker, Kaminsky, Lyles and Turner each scored a few votes for Tier 3. Payne also picked up a Tier 3 vote. Still, the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Oubre, Grant and Looney had some Tier 5 votes, but most of their votes were in Tier 4.

Tier 5

Justin Anderson, SG, Virginia

Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, Arizona

R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State

Tyus Jones, PG, Duke

Terry Rozier, G, Louisville

Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV

Delon Wright, PG, Utah

Note: This next group is one of the smaller Tier 5s we've had and shows the drop-off in talent as we get into the 20s. By pick 25 or so, teams really struggle to come up with players who they think can make the league.

This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players: They're unlikely to start for good teams but could become solid role players off the bench. A few teams had Hollis-Jefferson, Hunter, Jones and Vaughn in Tier 4, but that's not quite enough for them to make the cut. Rozier, Harrell and Wright got a few Tier 6 votes.

Tier 6

Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas

Anthony Brown, SG, Stanford

Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse

Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky

Olivier Hanlan, G, Boston College

Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Spain

Jarell Martin, PF, LSU

Chris McCullough, F, Syracuse

Cedi Osman, F, Turkey

Robert Upshaw, C, Washington

Christian Wood, PF, UNLV

Joseph Young, G, Oregon

Note: In this tier are the players whom at least one team ranked in their top 30. A few -- Brown, Martin and McCullough -- got Tier 5 votes. The rest are likely second-round picks. This list is typically quite a bit longer. Again, the talent level of the draft drops off a cliff as we get into these lower tiers.

Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But the teams that run it have found success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool for gauging which players a team should draft.
Click to expand...
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...nba-draft-how-pros-do-ranking-prospects-tiers
 
PMatic said:
Projecting The Top 50 Players In The 2015 NBA Draft Class

paine-bradshaw-nba-draft-model.png


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/
Click to expand...


I always go with the Bill James rule for new metrics. 70% should confirm what you know, 30% should challenge what you believe.

This list fits in with that.


I love Dangelo, but so much of his potential is going to be in his 3 point shooting, he isn't a dead eye shooter, not certain he's a harden level shooter so I see the bust potential.
 
I don't feel good about Winslow. Not sure if I want him at fourth pick.

Mudiay or Russell. Wish we had first overall pick so we can have Towns. Damn that dude Langston. :lol:
 
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