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(nice avy
Xavier and Duke are for personal reasons
The College Basketball Post
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by allen3xis,
- Start date
(nice avy
Xavier and Duke are for personal reasons
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I'm going to the Syracuse and Nova game tomorrow. Catch me in the Nova student's section rocking a McNamara tee. Gotta rep them Scranton boys, andcontinue to express my hate for the Nova basketball team.
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So, Wiggins back in, Dyson still suspended....
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Saturday's Games to Watch
by Caleb Peiffer
Matchup: Maryland (13-8, 3-3 Atlantic Coast) at Georgia Tech (10-9, 3-3), 12:00 p.m. EST
Rankings: Maryland, #39 in Pomeroy Ratings (4th of 12 in ACC); Georgia Tech, #55 (7th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Georgia Tech, 77-76 in 75 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 44%
Prospectus: After starting the conference schedule 0-3, the Yellowjackets have won three straight, and two in a row on the road, to climb back into thepostseason picture. Both these teams are stuck in the great morass in the middle of the ACC standings, as six squads currently have three losses, with fivesitting at 3-3. So much for all that talk of the Duke-UNC stranglehold on the ACC having been broken. The Terrapins do an outstanding job of making theiropponent miss shots, but are prevented from possessing an elite defense by an inability to force turnovers or prevent offensive rebounds. Georgia Tech andMaryland are the two unluckiest teams in the ACC, which each having won more than a game less than would be expected by their point scored/allowed totals, butone team will turn that luck around in what should be a very close game.
Matchup: Pittsburgh (17-4, 5-3 Big East) at Connecticut (15-5, 5-3), 1:00
Rankings: Pittsburgh, #30 in Pomeroy Ratings (7th of 16 in Big East); Connecticut, #26 (6th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Connecticut, 76-71 in 69 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 32%
Prospectus: This week's Team to Watch has surged while playing without its most prolific points-per-game scorer, sophomore guard Jerome Dyson, asConnecticut has beaten Indiana and Louisville in his absence. Now Dyson is out until March after failing a drug test. Pittsburgh certainly won't be weepingfor the Huskies, however, considering the Panthers are missing junior guard Levance Fields, arguably their best offensive player, and senior Mike Cook, who isout for the year. The Pitt offense is still formidable, as forwards Sam Young and DeJuan Blair use most of the team's possessions, and use them well. Onpaper, however, it appears that the Panthers will be in deep trouble against the monstrous Huskies, which have four players taller than anyone Pittsburgh canthrow in the mix, including the 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet.
Matchup: MD Baltimore County (13-7, 6-2 America East) at Vermont (11-9, 6-2), 1:00
Rankings: MD Baltimore County, #131 in Pomeroy Ratings (1st of 9 in America East); Vermont, #195 (3rd)
Pomeroy Prediction: MD Baltimore County, 77-76 in 70 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 44%
Prospectus: These two teams are tied for first atop the America East standings along with Binghampton. The Retrievers of Baltimore County beat the Catamountsat home by 18 back on January 9, but now have to travel to the claustrophobic little gym in Burlington, where Vermont is 6-1 on the season. The Catamounts havewon five straight conference games after staring 1-2. Maryland Baltimore County hasn't had a winning season since 2002, when the squad played in theNortheast Conference. This year, the Retrievers have a terrific offense--14th in the nation in raw efficiency, at 1.13 points per possession--but a very shakydefense. The Retrievers are also notable for the fact that they have just a seven man rotation, with four starters each receiving 80 percent or more of theplaying time.
Matchup: Kansas St. (15-4, 5-0 Big 12) at Missouri (12-9, 2-4), 1:30
Rankings: Kansas St., #7 in Pomeroy Ratings (2nd of 12 in Big 12); Missouri, #31 (6th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Kansas St., 81-78 in 80 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 38%
Prospectus: The Wildcats play their first game as sole possessors of first place in the Big 12 after knocking off the undefeated Jayhawks at home. Kansas St.should have a tougher time than many would expect against the Tigers, however--Missouri has been the second most unlucky team in the nation, losing 3.2 moregames than expected. Both teams are in the top-20 nationally in raw tempo, so this one should be a run-and-gun affair. Thanks to freshman Michael Beasley, theWildcats are the best offensive rebounding team in the nation, and they could particularly kill a weak-rebounding Missouri team on the boards. The Tigers do agreat job of shutting down the three-point attack, but Kansas St. gets a relatively low percentage of its offense from downtown.
Matchup: Baylor (16-3, 4-1 Big 12) at Texas (16-4, 3-2), 1:45
Rankings: Baylor, #44 in Pomeroy Ratings (7th of 12 in Big 12); Texas, #25 (4th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Texas, 81-72 in 69 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 22%
Prospectus: Coach Scott Drew has built the Bears back up after the terrible situation centered around the murder of team member Patrick Dennehy four and a halfyears ago. Baylor, profiled this week in Sports Illustrated, has cracked the AP Top 25 two years after the team played no non-conference games as punishmentfor its transgressions. The Bears are a team well balanced between offense and defense that plays at a fast pace yet doesn't turn the ball over. Texasplays at a deliberate pace, and runs a lethally-efficient offense--the best in the nation at protecting the basketball--which is led by sub-six-foot guardsD.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams. The Longhorns defense, however, struggles to force turnovers and defend the three-point line.
Matchup: Rider (16-6, 9-2 Metro Atlantic) at Siena (13-7, 8-2), 2:00
Rankings: Rider, #113 in Pomeroy Ratings (2nd of 10 in MAAC); Siena, #110 (1st)
Pomeroy Prediction: Siena, 80-75 in 73 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 33%
Prospectus: The Rider Broncs knocked off Marist on Wednesday to move to the top of the MAAC standings and set up this showdown with the Saints, who stand onlya half-game back. The Broncs ride into Albany having won eight straight games, all in conference play. They have feasted on a light schedule, however, andthings now get tougher, as Rider plays Siena in a home-and-home series with fourth-place Niagra sandwiched in between. The Saints will look to create enoughtakeaways on defense (fifth nationally in steal percentage) to throw the MAAC's best offense off balance and take over first place.
Matchup: Stanford (17-3, 6-2 Pacific 10) at Washington St. (17-3, 5-3), 3:00
Rankings: Stanford, #13 in Pomeroy Ratings (3rd of 10 in Pac 10); Washington St., #10 (2nd)
Pomeroy Prediction: Washington St., 57-54 in 57 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 33%
Prospectus: Winners of four straight, the Cardinal will try to complete a Washington road sweep when it takes on the Cougars in what should be an "everypossession counts" game between two very slow teams with stalwart defenses. Some of the shine has come off Washington St.'s season of late, as theteam has lost two of its last three, and had its previously-stout defense exposed in the process. Stanford's limited offense does not match up all thatwell against Washington St., however, as the Cougars can nearly match the size of the Lopez twins inside with 6'10" big men Robbie Cowgill and AronBaynes. No one is talking about the Cardinal, but the team sports the fifth best defense by adjusted efficiency in D-I.
Matchup: Florida (18-3, 5-1 Southeastern) at Arkansas (15-5, 4-2), 3:05
Rankings: Florida, #29 in Pomeroy Ratings (2nd of 12 in SEC); Arkansas, #34 (4th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Arkansas, 70-68 in 68 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 42%
Prospectus: The Gators are young, but they sure can shoot, with a raw efficiency that's second-to-none in D-I. Florida smoked Vanderbilt last Sunday,running out to a 34-6 lead before cruising to victory, and hasn't put up less than 1.14 points per possession in its last eight games. The Gators, however,will now go up against a Razorbacks defense which is the best they have faced since playing Ohio St. on December 22, a loss in which they scored only 0.78points per possession. Arkansas is in many ways the opposite of Florida, as the Razorbacks have a much stronger defense than offense, and are one of the oldestsquads in the country, with four of their top five in minutes played being seniors. Those contrasts should make for an outstanding game at Bud Walton Arena.
Matchup: Oklahoma (15-5, 3-2 Big 12) at Texas A&M (17-4, 3-3), 4:00
Rankings: Oklahoma, #28 in Pomeroy Ratings (5th of 12 in Big 12); Texas A&M, #17 (2rd)
Pomeroy Prediction: Texas A&M, 69-63 in 64 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 26%
Prospectus: The Sooners had a brutal beginning to their conference schedule, playing Kansas St. and Kansas, but since those two losses have won three straightheading into this matchup in College Station against an Aggies squad coming off a big home blowout win over Texas. Oklahoma boasts one of the best frontcourtsin the nation in the 6'11" Longar Longar and 6'10" Blake Griffin. The freshman Griffin has a terrificly well-rounded game, as he ranks in thetop-500 nationally in every Pomeroy statistic except assist rate. Griffin will have a tough task scoring down low against 7'0" freshman DeAndre Jordanand company, who help hold Texas A&M opponents to 40 percent shooting on twos.
Matchup: Winthrop (14-7, 5-1 Big South) at NC Asheville (17-4, 6-0), 4:30
Rankings: Winthrop, #91 in Pomeroy Ratings (1st of 8 in Big South); NC Asheville, #145 (2nd)
Pomeroy Prediction: Winthrop, 64-62 in 62 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 38%
Prospectus: The top two teams in the Big South hook up in a pivotal battle for this one-bid conference. The Eagles of Winthrop cannot afford to fall two gamesbehind the Bulldogs, as there are just seven games left for each team to play after this one. NC Asheville employs the services of the 7'7", 360 lb.Kenny George, he of the size 26 feet. George leads all of Division I in block percentage, as he sends back more than one out of every five of hisopponents' shots when standing on the court. Despite being a force on both ends, George has only been able to play 45 percent of his team's minutes.Asheville will need him to penetrate Winthrop's tough defense, which is the best in the Big South.
Matchup: Tennessee (18-2, 5-1 Southeastern) at Mississippi St. (14-6, 5-1), 7:00
Rankings: Tennessee, #12 in Pomeroy Ratings (1st of 12 in SEC); Mississippi St., #32 (3rd)
Pomeroy Prediction: Tennessee, 74-73 in 76 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 48%
Prospectus: The Volunteers, tied for first with Florida in the East division of the SEC, travel to take on the Bulldogs, who are alone in first in the West.Mississippi St. is coming off a spanking at the hands of Arkansas last Wednesday, a 20-point loss which snapped its string of five-straight wins to beginconference play. Tennessee, which sports the fourth best defense at creating turnovers, forced a sure-handed Alabama offense into a high percentage of miscuesin Tuesday's victory, and will look to do the same against a Bulldogs team that is not adept at protecting the ball. On the other side of the court, whichwill give way--Tennessee's highly-efficient shooting (53 eFG%) or Mississippi St.'s impenetrable defense (41 eFG% allowed)?
Matchup: Davidson (14-6, 12-0 Southern) at Chattanooga (14-7, 9-2), 7:00
Rankings: Davidson, #57 in Pomeroy Ratings (1st of 11 in Southern); Chattanooga, #119 (2nd)
Pomeroy Prediction: Davidson, 79-76 in 76 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 39%
Prospectus: The first place team in the South division of the Southern Conference travels to take on the first place team in the North division of the SouthernConference. Got it? The Wildcats of Davidson have won 10 games in a row after getting off to a slow start brought on by losses to North Carolina, Duke, andUCLA--all games in which the Wildcats were competitive. The Mocs represent the biggest challenge to Davidson's reign in the Southern, and Chattanooga willhave a chance on its home court to avenge a 27-point loss to the Wildcats two weeks ago. Davidson is led by stellar sophomore guard Stephen Curry, son offormer NBA player Dell. The younger Curry is using even more possessions than he did last season, and doing a great job with them, shooting 57 percent fromtwo-point range and 41 percent from three.
Matchup: Arizona (15-6, 5-3 Pacific 10) at UCLA (19-2, 7-1), 9:00
Rankings: Arizona, #15 in Pomeroy Ratings (4th of 10 in Pac 10); UCLA, #4 (1st)
Pomeroy Prediction: UCLA, 73-64 in 63 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 18%
Prospectus: The Wildcats are prowling, having won four straight Pac 10 games, including an impressive 80-69 beating of Southern California on the roadThursday. Taking down both LA schools in the City of Angels is a tall task, but Arizona's offense is absolutely humming, with efficiency's ranging from121 to 137 during the winning streak. UCLA has the type of defense that could slow them down, and on the other end of the court the Bruins' potent offenseshould give an Arizona team that can't force turnovers fits. If 6'9" sophomore Jordan Hill can manage to limit Kevin Love's exposure to theoffensive boards, the Wildcats will give the Bruins a good fight.
Matchup: Nevada (13-7, 5-2 Western Athletic) at Utah St. (15-6, 5-1), 9:05
Rankings: Nevada, #103 in Pomeroy Ratings (1st of 9 in WAC); Utah St., #130 (4th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Utah St., 75-73 in 68 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 45%
Prospectus: The Aggies of Utah St. are an overrated first-place team, as they have had the eighth-best luck in the country, leading to about two extra wins.Utah St. is a squad of extremes--it shoots exceptionally well from both two- and three-point range, thanks mostly to the sublime guardplay of 6'2"senior Jaycee Carroll, but the team's offense is prevented from being an elite unit by a propensity to turn it over, while the Aggies defense is poor upand down the board. The Wolfpack, contrastingly, are well balanced between offense and defense, and solid-if-unspectacular in both regards. Nevada is fourthnationally in average minutes-weighted height, thanks primarily to 6'11" JaVale McGee as well as 7'1" David Ellis, which the team should beable to take advantage of against a Utah St. squad that is not vertically gifted.
Matchup: Cal St. Fullerton (13-6, 6-2 Big West) at Cal St. Northridge (15-4, 7-0), 10:05
Rankings: Cal St. Fullerton, #120 in Pomeroy Ratings (3rd of 9 in Big West); Cal St. Northridge, #111 (1st)
Pomeroy Prediction: Cal St. Northridge, 88-82 in 83 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 32%
Prospectus: A matchup between the first and second place teams in the Big West. Both squads love to push the tempo, as the Titans of Fullerton and the Matadorsrank 10/11 in D-I, respectively, in adjusted tempo. Fullerton is second-to-last in the nation in average minutes-weighted height, with no player taller than6'6" and three shorter than 6'0". As might be expected from such a disparity, the Titans get a large proportion of their offense from longrange, shooting an outstanding 42.2 percent on three-pointers, the third best rate in D-I. The Matadors, however, have the best defense in the Big West, andhold opponents to just 31 percent from long range.
Caleb Peiffer is a contributor to Basketball Prospectus. He can be reached here.
by Caleb Peiffer
Matchup: Maryland (13-8, 3-3 Atlantic Coast) at Georgia Tech (10-9, 3-3), 12:00 p.m. EST
Rankings: Maryland, #39 in Pomeroy Ratings (4th of 12 in ACC); Georgia Tech, #55 (7th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Georgia Tech, 77-76 in 75 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 44%
Prospectus: After starting the conference schedule 0-3, the Yellowjackets have won three straight, and two in a row on the road, to climb back into thepostseason picture. Both these teams are stuck in the great morass in the middle of the ACC standings, as six squads currently have three losses, with fivesitting at 3-3. So much for all that talk of the Duke-UNC stranglehold on the ACC having been broken. The Terrapins do an outstanding job of making theiropponent miss shots, but are prevented from possessing an elite defense by an inability to force turnovers or prevent offensive rebounds. Georgia Tech andMaryland are the two unluckiest teams in the ACC, which each having won more than a game less than would be expected by their point scored/allowed totals, butone team will turn that luck around in what should be a very close game.
Matchup: Pittsburgh (17-4, 5-3 Big East) at Connecticut (15-5, 5-3), 1:00
Rankings: Pittsburgh, #30 in Pomeroy Ratings (7th of 16 in Big East); Connecticut, #26 (6th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Connecticut, 76-71 in 69 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 32%
Prospectus: This week's Team to Watch has surged while playing without its most prolific points-per-game scorer, sophomore guard Jerome Dyson, asConnecticut has beaten Indiana and Louisville in his absence. Now Dyson is out until March after failing a drug test. Pittsburgh certainly won't be weepingfor the Huskies, however, considering the Panthers are missing junior guard Levance Fields, arguably their best offensive player, and senior Mike Cook, who isout for the year. The Pitt offense is still formidable, as forwards Sam Young and DeJuan Blair use most of the team's possessions, and use them well. Onpaper, however, it appears that the Panthers will be in deep trouble against the monstrous Huskies, which have four players taller than anyone Pittsburgh canthrow in the mix, including the 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet.
Matchup: MD Baltimore County (13-7, 6-2 America East) at Vermont (11-9, 6-2), 1:00
Rankings: MD Baltimore County, #131 in Pomeroy Ratings (1st of 9 in America East); Vermont, #195 (3rd)
Pomeroy Prediction: MD Baltimore County, 77-76 in 70 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 44%
Prospectus: These two teams are tied for first atop the America East standings along with Binghampton. The Retrievers of Baltimore County beat the Catamountsat home by 18 back on January 9, but now have to travel to the claustrophobic little gym in Burlington, where Vermont is 6-1 on the season. The Catamounts havewon five straight conference games after staring 1-2. Maryland Baltimore County hasn't had a winning season since 2002, when the squad played in theNortheast Conference. This year, the Retrievers have a terrific offense--14th in the nation in raw efficiency, at 1.13 points per possession--but a very shakydefense. The Retrievers are also notable for the fact that they have just a seven man rotation, with four starters each receiving 80 percent or more of theplaying time.
Matchup: Kansas St. (15-4, 5-0 Big 12) at Missouri (12-9, 2-4), 1:30
Rankings: Kansas St., #7 in Pomeroy Ratings (2nd of 12 in Big 12); Missouri, #31 (6th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Kansas St., 81-78 in 80 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 38%
Prospectus: The Wildcats play their first game as sole possessors of first place in the Big 12 after knocking off the undefeated Jayhawks at home. Kansas St.should have a tougher time than many would expect against the Tigers, however--Missouri has been the second most unlucky team in the nation, losing 3.2 moregames than expected. Both teams are in the top-20 nationally in raw tempo, so this one should be a run-and-gun affair. Thanks to freshman Michael Beasley, theWildcats are the best offensive rebounding team in the nation, and they could particularly kill a weak-rebounding Missouri team on the boards. The Tigers do agreat job of shutting down the three-point attack, but Kansas St. gets a relatively low percentage of its offense from downtown.
Matchup: Baylor (16-3, 4-1 Big 12) at Texas (16-4, 3-2), 1:45
Rankings: Baylor, #44 in Pomeroy Ratings (7th of 12 in Big 12); Texas, #25 (4th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Texas, 81-72 in 69 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 22%
Prospectus: Coach Scott Drew has built the Bears back up after the terrible situation centered around the murder of team member Patrick Dennehy four and a halfyears ago. Baylor, profiled this week in Sports Illustrated, has cracked the AP Top 25 two years after the team played no non-conference games as punishmentfor its transgressions. The Bears are a team well balanced between offense and defense that plays at a fast pace yet doesn't turn the ball over. Texasplays at a deliberate pace, and runs a lethally-efficient offense--the best in the nation at protecting the basketball--which is led by sub-six-foot guardsD.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams. The Longhorns defense, however, struggles to force turnovers and defend the three-point line.
Matchup: Rider (16-6, 9-2 Metro Atlantic) at Siena (13-7, 8-2), 2:00
Rankings: Rider, #113 in Pomeroy Ratings (2nd of 10 in MAAC); Siena, #110 (1st)
Pomeroy Prediction: Siena, 80-75 in 73 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 33%
Prospectus: The Rider Broncs knocked off Marist on Wednesday to move to the top of the MAAC standings and set up this showdown with the Saints, who stand onlya half-game back. The Broncs ride into Albany having won eight straight games, all in conference play. They have feasted on a light schedule, however, andthings now get tougher, as Rider plays Siena in a home-and-home series with fourth-place Niagra sandwiched in between. The Saints will look to create enoughtakeaways on defense (fifth nationally in steal percentage) to throw the MAAC's best offense off balance and take over first place.
Matchup: Stanford (17-3, 6-2 Pacific 10) at Washington St. (17-3, 5-3), 3:00
Rankings: Stanford, #13 in Pomeroy Ratings (3rd of 10 in Pac 10); Washington St., #10 (2nd)
Pomeroy Prediction: Washington St., 57-54 in 57 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 33%
Prospectus: Winners of four straight, the Cardinal will try to complete a Washington road sweep when it takes on the Cougars in what should be an "everypossession counts" game between two very slow teams with stalwart defenses. Some of the shine has come off Washington St.'s season of late, as theteam has lost two of its last three, and had its previously-stout defense exposed in the process. Stanford's limited offense does not match up all thatwell against Washington St., however, as the Cougars can nearly match the size of the Lopez twins inside with 6'10" big men Robbie Cowgill and AronBaynes. No one is talking about the Cardinal, but the team sports the fifth best defense by adjusted efficiency in D-I.
Matchup: Florida (18-3, 5-1 Southeastern) at Arkansas (15-5, 4-2), 3:05
Rankings: Florida, #29 in Pomeroy Ratings (2nd of 12 in SEC); Arkansas, #34 (4th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Arkansas, 70-68 in 68 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 42%
Prospectus: The Gators are young, but they sure can shoot, with a raw efficiency that's second-to-none in D-I. Florida smoked Vanderbilt last Sunday,running out to a 34-6 lead before cruising to victory, and hasn't put up less than 1.14 points per possession in its last eight games. The Gators, however,will now go up against a Razorbacks defense which is the best they have faced since playing Ohio St. on December 22, a loss in which they scored only 0.78points per possession. Arkansas is in many ways the opposite of Florida, as the Razorbacks have a much stronger defense than offense, and are one of the oldestsquads in the country, with four of their top five in minutes played being seniors. Those contrasts should make for an outstanding game at Bud Walton Arena.
Matchup: Oklahoma (15-5, 3-2 Big 12) at Texas A&M (17-4, 3-3), 4:00
Rankings: Oklahoma, #28 in Pomeroy Ratings (5th of 12 in Big 12); Texas A&M, #17 (2rd)
Pomeroy Prediction: Texas A&M, 69-63 in 64 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 26%
Prospectus: The Sooners had a brutal beginning to their conference schedule, playing Kansas St. and Kansas, but since those two losses have won three straightheading into this matchup in College Station against an Aggies squad coming off a big home blowout win over Texas. Oklahoma boasts one of the best frontcourtsin the nation in the 6'11" Longar Longar and 6'10" Blake Griffin. The freshman Griffin has a terrificly well-rounded game, as he ranks in thetop-500 nationally in every Pomeroy statistic except assist rate. Griffin will have a tough task scoring down low against 7'0" freshman DeAndre Jordanand company, who help hold Texas A&M opponents to 40 percent shooting on twos.
Matchup: Winthrop (14-7, 5-1 Big South) at NC Asheville (17-4, 6-0), 4:30
Rankings: Winthrop, #91 in Pomeroy Ratings (1st of 8 in Big South); NC Asheville, #145 (2nd)
Pomeroy Prediction: Winthrop, 64-62 in 62 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 38%
Prospectus: The top two teams in the Big South hook up in a pivotal battle for this one-bid conference. The Eagles of Winthrop cannot afford to fall two gamesbehind the Bulldogs, as there are just seven games left for each team to play after this one. NC Asheville employs the services of the 7'7", 360 lb.Kenny George, he of the size 26 feet. George leads all of Division I in block percentage, as he sends back more than one out of every five of hisopponents' shots when standing on the court. Despite being a force on both ends, George has only been able to play 45 percent of his team's minutes.Asheville will need him to penetrate Winthrop's tough defense, which is the best in the Big South.
Matchup: Tennessee (18-2, 5-1 Southeastern) at Mississippi St. (14-6, 5-1), 7:00
Rankings: Tennessee, #12 in Pomeroy Ratings (1st of 12 in SEC); Mississippi St., #32 (3rd)
Pomeroy Prediction: Tennessee, 74-73 in 76 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 48%
Prospectus: The Volunteers, tied for first with Florida in the East division of the SEC, travel to take on the Bulldogs, who are alone in first in the West.Mississippi St. is coming off a spanking at the hands of Arkansas last Wednesday, a 20-point loss which snapped its string of five-straight wins to beginconference play. Tennessee, which sports the fourth best defense at creating turnovers, forced a sure-handed Alabama offense into a high percentage of miscuesin Tuesday's victory, and will look to do the same against a Bulldogs team that is not adept at protecting the ball. On the other side of the court, whichwill give way--Tennessee's highly-efficient shooting (53 eFG%) or Mississippi St.'s impenetrable defense (41 eFG% allowed)?
Matchup: Davidson (14-6, 12-0 Southern) at Chattanooga (14-7, 9-2), 7:00
Rankings: Davidson, #57 in Pomeroy Ratings (1st of 11 in Southern); Chattanooga, #119 (2nd)
Pomeroy Prediction: Davidson, 79-76 in 76 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 39%
Prospectus: The first place team in the South division of the Southern Conference travels to take on the first place team in the North division of the SouthernConference. Got it? The Wildcats of Davidson have won 10 games in a row after getting off to a slow start brought on by losses to North Carolina, Duke, andUCLA--all games in which the Wildcats were competitive. The Mocs represent the biggest challenge to Davidson's reign in the Southern, and Chattanooga willhave a chance on its home court to avenge a 27-point loss to the Wildcats two weeks ago. Davidson is led by stellar sophomore guard Stephen Curry, son offormer NBA player Dell. The younger Curry is using even more possessions than he did last season, and doing a great job with them, shooting 57 percent fromtwo-point range and 41 percent from three.
Matchup: Arizona (15-6, 5-3 Pacific 10) at UCLA (19-2, 7-1), 9:00
Rankings: Arizona, #15 in Pomeroy Ratings (4th of 10 in Pac 10); UCLA, #4 (1st)
Pomeroy Prediction: UCLA, 73-64 in 63 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 18%
Prospectus: The Wildcats are prowling, having won four straight Pac 10 games, including an impressive 80-69 beating of Southern California on the roadThursday. Taking down both LA schools in the City of Angels is a tall task, but Arizona's offense is absolutely humming, with efficiency's ranging from121 to 137 during the winning streak. UCLA has the type of defense that could slow them down, and on the other end of the court the Bruins' potent offenseshould give an Arizona team that can't force turnovers fits. If 6'9" sophomore Jordan Hill can manage to limit Kevin Love's exposure to theoffensive boards, the Wildcats will give the Bruins a good fight.
Matchup: Nevada (13-7, 5-2 Western Athletic) at Utah St. (15-6, 5-1), 9:05
Rankings: Nevada, #103 in Pomeroy Ratings (1st of 9 in WAC); Utah St., #130 (4th)
Pomeroy Prediction: Utah St., 75-73 in 68 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 45%
Prospectus: The Aggies of Utah St. are an overrated first-place team, as they have had the eighth-best luck in the country, leading to about two extra wins.Utah St. is a squad of extremes--it shoots exceptionally well from both two- and three-point range, thanks mostly to the sublime guardplay of 6'2"senior Jaycee Carroll, but the team's offense is prevented from being an elite unit by a propensity to turn it over, while the Aggies defense is poor upand down the board. The Wolfpack, contrastingly, are well balanced between offense and defense, and solid-if-unspectacular in both regards. Nevada is fourthnationally in average minutes-weighted height, thanks primarily to 6'11" JaVale McGee as well as 7'1" David Ellis, which the team should beable to take advantage of against a Utah St. squad that is not vertically gifted.
Matchup: Cal St. Fullerton (13-6, 6-2 Big West) at Cal St. Northridge (15-4, 7-0), 10:05
Rankings: Cal St. Fullerton, #120 in Pomeroy Ratings (3rd of 9 in Big West); Cal St. Northridge, #111 (1st)
Pomeroy Prediction: Cal St. Northridge, 88-82 in 83 Possessions
Upset Possibility: 32%
Prospectus: A matchup between the first and second place teams in the Big West. Both squads love to push the tempo, as the Titans of Fullerton and the Matadorsrank 10/11 in D-I, respectively, in adjusted tempo. Fullerton is second-to-last in the nation in average minutes-weighted height, with no player taller than6'6" and three shorter than 6'0". As might be expected from such a disparity, the Titans get a large proportion of their offense from longrange, shooting an outstanding 42.2 percent on three-pointers, the third best rate in D-I. The Matadors, however, have the best defense in the Big West, andhold opponents to just 31 percent from long range.
Caleb Peiffer is a contributor to Basketball Prospectus. He can be reached here.
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Ill be at the Hoyas game today
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- Nov 14, 2007
The pitt game is huge. If Uconn wins , it will really prove how good they are.
Arizona game will be big but ucla and their defense will outlast Arizona
Arizona game will be big but ucla and their defense will outlast Arizona
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- Nov 26, 2007
Headin to that game right now, gotta pull out this upset to get our national swagger back....
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- Jan 13, 2001
This statement sort of bothered me, as I see this as a game Uconn MUST win... a game they should be expected to win at home against a depleted Pittsquad. So I checked out the line and found out in fact, they ARE supposed to win this one according to vegas... 3.5 point favorites.
Uconn SHOULD win today... if they don't, it's a disappointment..
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- Nov 14, 2007
Yea I mean good teams win games they should. So this will prove something to me. I know there favored but they haven't been consistent in forever.
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- Jun 8, 2006
Scoop gettin to play..what a joke
Cincy isn't a giant killer....they are just good right now
Cincy isn't a giant killer....they are just good right now
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- Apr 16, 2007
Nice to see I'm not the only one who agrees although I am a student there.
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- Jun 8, 2006
Honsetly, If that is the way JB woulda handled this if you guys weren't short on players...
then fine, that is the choice of the coach and administration, and although unethical...it's their choice.
but that's not the case, it's out of desperation and it doesn't reflect well on administration or the program..
then fine, that is the choice of the coach and administration, and although unethical...it's their choice.
but that's not the case, it's out of desperation and it doesn't reflect well on administration or the program..
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- Jun 17, 2006
Damn I wish I would have stayed in College Station this weekend, it should be a good game between the Sooners and the Aggies today.
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- Apr 16, 2007
I mentioned that in the official thread. The thing that really irks me is that it's a slap in the face to the student body. He committed identity theft(doesn't matter the degree) which is a federal offense. If any other student did this the university would cooperate with the authorities, then expel thestudent.
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Adrien rejected by the rim
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- Jun 8, 2006
The Jason Thompson and Edwin Ubiles show starts now
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UTEP tryin to actually upset Memphis at home
looks like we gone run em down in 2nd half tho
but damn, the Tigers showin somw weaknesses in defense 2day
looks like we gone run em down in 2nd half tho
but damn, the Tigers showin somw weaknesses in defense 2day
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cuse bout to win. nova lookin' so terrible.
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They are completely lost without Nardi/Sumpter
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Aiyo, our Baylor Bears are up 10 halfway through the first half against Texas... we need this one fellow bear-adopters!
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AJ killin again...
Reynolds and James horrible games
Reynolds and James horrible games
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Glad he didn't play much. I can honestly say we played better without him. The foreign guy ok played good. Harris played great. Good win we neededthat.
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Siena
you can't tell me anyway #1 or #2 seed would wana see Jason Thompson on the opposing side
you can't tell me anyway #1 or #2 seed would wana see Jason Thompson on the opposing side
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your Siena boys looking horrible allen...
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They have...so inconsistent
why they got this bum Josh Duell even gettin minutes I don't know
they should go small with ; Tay, Moore, Hasbrouck, Franklin, Ubiles and they'd run teams off the floor in the MAAC
why they got this bum Josh Duell even gettin minutes I don't know
they should go small with ; Tay, Moore, Hasbrouck, Franklin, Ubiles and they'd run teams off the floor in the MAAC
