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Cp3 is a defensive liability
The Official NBA PG Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by airmaxpenny1,
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Cp3 is a defensive liability
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Seems to me that you're finding flaws in every advanced stat simply because it doesn't agree with your opinion.
Go ahead and use those surface statistics like points, assists, and rebounds, but you're simply doing yourself a disservice.
All these advanced metrics simply attempt to fill the holes present in the basic stats by accounting for minutes, turnovers, possessions used, game pace, etc. If a player is averaging 20 points per on 45% shooting in 36 minutes, and there is another player averaging 15 per on 50% in 25 minutes, who is the better scorer? It's not that hard to find the flaws.
So whats the logic of using the stats that tell you strictly one piece of data, when you can use a metric like PER or win shares which are all-encompassing? Metrics that, I may add, all grade Paul not only as the top point guard, but as one of the top players overall.
One may say they dislike stats in favor of "watching the games" as if they are mutually exclusive. Well I'd say what exactly do you see Paul doing on the floor that is so bad? Dudes make it seem like he's Tyrone Lue out there for some reason. He runs the pick and roll as good as anyone, he barely wastes any possessions, he takes GOOD shots, always finds the open man, etc.
As for your arbitrary arguments claiming Paul is a horrible defender ill say this:
You're not an NBA scout, nor are you any sort of talent evaluator. So ill take the advanced metrics over your pretend scouting any day.
- 4,201
- 141
Seems to me that you're finding flaws in every advanced stat simply because it doesn't agree with your opinion.
Go ahead and use those surface statistics like points, assists, and rebounds, but you're simply doing yourself a disservice.
All these advanced metrics simply attempt to fill the holes present in the basic stats by accounting for minutes, turnovers, possessions used, game pace, etc. If a player is averaging 20 points per on 45% shooting in 36 minutes, and there is another player averaging 15 per on 50% in 25 minutes, who is the better scorer? It's not that hard to find the flaws.
So whats the logic of using the stats that tell you strictly one piece of data, when you can use a metric like PER or win shares which are all-encompassing? Metrics that, I may add, all grade Paul not only as the top point guard, but as one of the top players overall.
One may say they dislike stats in favor of "watching the games" as if they are mutually exclusive. Well I'd say what exactly do you see Paul doing on the floor that is so bad? Dudes make it seem like he's Tyrone Lue out there for some reason. He runs the pick and roll as good as anyone, he barely wastes any possessions, he takes GOOD shots, always finds the open man, etc.
As for your arbitrary arguments claiming Paul is a horrible defender ill say this:
You're not an NBA scout, nor are you any sort of talent evaluator. So ill take the advanced metrics over your pretend scouting any day.
everysingletime
formerly amel223
- 42,963
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I hope you know that not every scout and talent evaluator use advanced statistics.
And even if they do then there's something wrong cuz teams make draft mistakes all the time.
Part of telling how good a player is, is just by watching them.
If you can break everything about the value of a player just by complicated math then scouts, etc. wouldn't bother attending games to watch a prospect.
And no, no one is saying he's a like Tyrone Lue. The dude is a helluva lot better than Tyrone Lue.
And it's nice to see how you have Deron Williams as your number 2 guard but Russell Westbrook has better WS and PER numbers
By your logic that would make Westbrook the number 2 guard wouldn't it?
everysingletime
formerly amel223
- 42,963
- 15,346
I hope you know that not every scout and talent evaluator use advanced statistics.
And even if they do then there's something wrong cuz teams make draft mistakes all the time.
Part of telling how good a player is, is just by watching them.
If you can break everything about the value of a player just by complicated math then scouts, etc. wouldn't bother attending games to watch a prospect.
And no, no one is saying he's a like Tyrone Lue. The dude is a helluva lot better than Tyrone Lue.
And it's nice to see how you have Deron Williams as your number 2 guard but Russell Westbrook has better WS and PER numbers
By your logic that would make Westbrook the number 2 guard wouldn't it?
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Obviously they do not, but they know what to look for when evaluating defense, seeing as how most scouts have either played at the highest levels before, or been around the game for decades. Because you and I do not qualify as a scout in either aspect, we are forced to use the methods of evaluation we do have, namely advanced metrics and basic eye tests.
I've never said anything about not watching basketball. I watch all the time, and I can see that Chris Paul, Deron, Russ, Rose, etc. are all great players. They all run offenses well, they all score well, they defend, and generally all have significant impacts on the game.Can I tell some players do certain things better then others? Yes, but not to what extent, and certainly not how big a difference it is in the overall context of each players' game.
But can you really tell the difference between the two players by watching them? What do you do, take notes about every defensive assignment missed, every slow rotation, every wrong offensive decision by each player for each game, and then compare them? No you do not, so why not use the metrics that do it for you?
As far as Deron and Russ are concerned, yes Russ has indeed outperformed and outproduced him this season. But the difference is minute by most measures, and in PER the difference is only <half a point. Also, the sample size thus far is only ~20 games, so a strict conclusion shouldn't be drawn.
Any further questions?
I've never said anything about not watching basketball. I watch all the time, and I can see that Chris Paul, Deron, Russ, Rose, etc. are all great players. They all run offenses well, they all score well, they defend, and generally all have significant impacts on the game.Can I tell some players do certain things better then others? Yes, but not to what extent, and certainly not how big a difference it is in the overall context of each players' game.
But can you really tell the difference between the two players by watching them? What do you do, take notes about every defensive assignment missed, every slow rotation, every wrong offensive decision by each player for each game, and then compare them? No you do not, so why not use the metrics that do it for you?
As far as Deron and Russ are concerned, yes Russ has indeed outperformed and outproduced him this season. But the difference is minute by most measures, and in PER the difference is only <half a point. Also, the sample size thus far is only ~20 games, so a strict conclusion shouldn't be drawn.
Any further questions?
- 4,201
- 141
Obviously they do not, but they know what to look for when evaluating defense, seeing as how most scouts have either played at the highest levels before, or been around the game for decades. Because you and I do not qualify as a scout in either aspect, we are forced to use the methods of evaluation we do have, namely advanced metrics and basic eye tests.
I've never said anything about not watching basketball. I watch all the time, and I can see that Chris Paul, Deron, Russ, Rose, etc. are all great players. They all run offenses well, they all score well, they defend, and generally all have significant impacts on the game.Can I tell some players do certain things better then others? Yes, but not to what extent, and certainly not how big a difference it is in the overall context of each players' game.
But can you really tell the difference between the two players by watching them? What do you do, take notes about every defensive assignment missed, every slow rotation, every wrong offensive decision by each player for each game, and then compare them? No you do not, so why not use the metrics that do it for you?
As far as Deron and Russ are concerned, yes Russ has indeed outperformed and outproduced him this season. But the difference is minute by most measures, and in PER the difference is only <half a point. Also, the sample size thus far is only ~20 games, so a strict conclusion shouldn't be drawn.
Any further questions?
I've never said anything about not watching basketball. I watch all the time, and I can see that Chris Paul, Deron, Russ, Rose, etc. are all great players. They all run offenses well, they all score well, they defend, and generally all have significant impacts on the game.Can I tell some players do certain things better then others? Yes, but not to what extent, and certainly not how big a difference it is in the overall context of each players' game.
But can you really tell the difference between the two players by watching them? What do you do, take notes about every defensive assignment missed, every slow rotation, every wrong offensive decision by each player for each game, and then compare them? No you do not, so why not use the metrics that do it for you?
As far as Deron and Russ are concerned, yes Russ has indeed outperformed and outproduced him this season. But the difference is minute by most measures, and in PER the difference is only <half a point. Also, the sample size thus far is only ~20 games, so a strict conclusion shouldn't be drawn.
Any further questions?
- 1,930
- 11
You sure as hell have been clinging to your conclusions though, using advanced stats because that's really all you have, but then when it doesn't align with your opinion now the sample size is too small and the difference is too minute but you were the one talking about "far and away."
According to , our best lineup is Royal Ivey, Morris Peterson, Kevin Durant, DJ White, BJ Mullens and we'd win by 85.
You don't have to be a scout or have played basketball previously to see he is not getting into the paint at will anymore. I don't think you have to be a scout to see a guy is getting his ++# busted, or that he is being shut down, especially when that guy then comes out and validates it himself.
84% of his shots are jump shots, compared to 63% for Russell Westbrook, 71% for Deron Williams, and 71% for Derrick Rose. He's not getting into the paint at will anymore. Here is an article about his knee, how they removed his meniscus, and it's affect on his explosiveness. http://richiez23.wordpres...future-of-all-star-paul/
Last 2 teams to start a season 8-0 made the finals. If this Hornet's team fails to make the playoffs entirely, at some point people are going to have to come to grips with it, dude is declining, can't really take over games the same anymore, and join us in the present.
According to , our best lineup is Royal Ivey, Morris Peterson, Kevin Durant, DJ White, BJ Mullens and we'd win by 85.
You don't have to be a scout or have played basketball previously to see he is not getting into the paint at will anymore. I don't think you have to be a scout to see a guy is getting his ++# busted, or that he is being shut down, especially when that guy then comes out and validates it himself.
84% of his shots are jump shots, compared to 63% for Russell Westbrook, 71% for Deron Williams, and 71% for Derrick Rose. He's not getting into the paint at will anymore. Here is an article about his knee, how they removed his meniscus, and it's affect on his explosiveness. http://richiez23.wordpres...future-of-all-star-paul/
Last 2 teams to start a season 8-0 made the finals. If this Hornet's team fails to make the playoffs entirely, at some point people are going to have to come to grips with it, dude is declining, can't really take over games the same anymore, and join us in the present.
- 1,930
- 11
You sure as hell have been clinging to your conclusions though, using advanced stats because that's really all you have, but then when it doesn't align with your opinion now the sample size is too small and the difference is too minute but you were the one talking about "far and away."
According to , our best lineup is Royal Ivey, Morris Peterson, Kevin Durant, DJ White, BJ Mullens and we'd win by 85.
You don't have to be a scout or have played basketball previously to see he is not getting into the paint at will anymore. I don't think you have to be a scout to see a guy is getting his ++# busted, or that he is being shut down, especially when that guy then comes out and validates it himself.
84% of his shots are jump shots, compared to 63% for Russell Westbrook, 71% for Deron Williams, and 71% for Derrick Rose. He's not getting into the paint at will anymore. Here is an article about his knee, how they removed his meniscus, and it's affect on his explosiveness. http://richiez23.wordpres...future-of-all-star-paul/
Last 2 teams to start a season 8-0 made the finals. If this Hornet's team fails to make the playoffs entirely, at some point people are going to have to come to grips with it, dude is declining, can't really take over games the same anymore, and join us in the present.
According to , our best lineup is Royal Ivey, Morris Peterson, Kevin Durant, DJ White, BJ Mullens and we'd win by 85.
You don't have to be a scout or have played basketball previously to see he is not getting into the paint at will anymore. I don't think you have to be a scout to see a guy is getting his ++# busted, or that he is being shut down, especially when that guy then comes out and validates it himself.
84% of his shots are jump shots, compared to 63% for Russell Westbrook, 71% for Deron Williams, and 71% for Derrick Rose. He's not getting into the paint at will anymore. Here is an article about his knee, how they removed his meniscus, and it's affect on his explosiveness. http://richiez23.wordpres...future-of-all-star-paul/
Last 2 teams to start a season 8-0 made the finals. If this Hornet's team fails to make the playoffs entirely, at some point people are going to have to come to grips with it, dude is declining, can't really take over games the same anymore, and join us in the present.
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He was solid on defense before the injury.....imo i think Paul has been surpassed by Will, Rose and Westbrook. CP's injury and his team are his liability.
- 11,385
- 31
He was solid on defense before the injury.....imo i think Paul has been surpassed by Will, Rose and Westbrook. CP's injury and his team are his liability.
- 1,930
- 11
New stats show Suns excel on D, Pistons on offense
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Archive
Editor's note: Today we are introducing live, daily updates of John Hollinger's key statistical measures for NBA teams.
To go directly to the new Hollinger Team Stats page, click here.
Or click here for ESPN.com's Hollinger Player Statistics.
Mention the Phoenix Suns to anyone who follows the NBA, and the first words that come to mind are all about offense: running and gunning, 3-point shooting, slick passing and alley-oops. Just in case that image wasn't already cemented in our heads, the Suns went out and hung 47 on Miami in the first quarter of Friday's ESPN game against the Heat.
Dig a little deeper, however, and you'll discover something different: Defense, not offense, is what's carrying the Suns so far.
That's a surprise if you look only at per-game scoring stats.
The Suns are the league's highest-scoring team at 104.0 points per game, nearly two points ahead of their closest competitor. But in terms of points allowed, they rank only 16th at 96.9 per game. Clearly, one would think, the Suns had hardly changed their stripes from the score-first-ask-questions-later approach of a year ago.
However, that analysis ignores a very important fact: Phoenix games feature more possessions for each team than typical NBA contests. Because Steve Nash is pushing the ball up court so quickly and the other Suns are so ready to launch it, the average Suns game has an estimated 98.2 possessions for each team.
OUR NEW NUMBERS
HOLLINGER STATS
• Pace Factor
• Assist Ratio
• Turnover Ratio
• Offensive Rebound Rate
• Defensive Rebound Rate
• Rebound Rate
• Effective Field-Goal Percentage
• True Shooting Percentage
• Offensive Efficiency
• Defensive Efficiency
I know that from a statistic I use called Pace Factor, which measures how many possessions a team uses per 48 minutes. And it turns out that Phoenix leads the league in that department by a wide margin, using about five extra possessions per game compared to the average team.
Because of that, we should expect Phoenix's stats to be inflated. In any given game, those five extra possessions provide five more chances for each team to score, explaining why the score of a typical Suns game is so much higher than it is for the rest of the league.
It also means we have to adjust our perceptions of the Suns on both sides of the ball. Offensively, because of their blazing fast pace, they may not be quite as good as their gaudy points-per-game average makes things appear. And defensively, because their opponents get more opportunities, the Suns could be substantially better than their per-game average shows.
Fortunately, we have a simple way of making that adjustment. I keep track of two statistics called Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency that eliminate the impact of pace by measuring points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions. By doing so, it allows us to make apples-to-apples comparisons of fast-paced teams like Phoenix with plodders like Indiana or Detroit.
And once we make the adjustment, the results might raise a few eyebrows. The Suns still are a quality offensive team -- they rank seventh in the league in Offensive Efficiency through Monday's games. (Incidentally, all these rankings are now available to ESPN Insiders.) But defensively, they're even better, ranking second overall in the league -- barely behind No. 1 San Antonio and well ahead of third-ranked Indiana.
Since this conclusion flies so completely in the face of conventional wisdom, let me introduce a few numbers to back up my contention. For starters, the Suns are fifth in the league in opponent field-goal percentage at 43.1 percent. But that number looks a lot better once you consider how rarely Phoenix's opponents get freebies: Per opponent field-goal attempt, the Suns give up fewer free-throw attempts than any team except Detroit.
Additionally, Phoenix allows a below-average number of 3-point attempts (only 18.0 percent of opponent tries are from downtown, compared to the league average of 19.4 percent), and permit a below-average number to go in (33.9 percent instead of the league's 35.5 percent).
Thus, while the Suns may not fit our stereotype of a physical, grind-it-out defensive team, they have defended better than 28 of the other 29 teams in 2005-06.
Phoenix's example covers one end of the pace spectrum, but there's an equally compelling story among slow-paced clubs, because a team we associate with grind-it-out defense has been a mirror image of the Suns this season, also in unexpected ways.
The Detroit Pistons won a championship and came within a whisker of a second behind a suffocating defense, and at first glance you might think little had changed this year. The Pistons allow only 91.7 points per game, ranking them seventh in the league in that category, while their offensive average of 99.3 points is "only" ninth.
But evaluating Detroit has the opposite problem that we discussed with evaluating Phoenix: The Pistons walk it up the court nearly every possession and routinely grind the clock down to single digits before shooting.
As a result, the Pistons are the league's second slowest-paced team at 88.6 possessions per game -- only Memphis is slower. And looking at the league Pace Factor standings, you'll see that they use nearly 10 possessions per game fewer than the Suns.
Considering that information, it's hardly surprising that Phoenix's per-game averages of points scored and points allowed are so much greater than Detroit's. Only by evaluating these teams on a per-possession basis, using Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, can we make a relevant comparison between the two teams.
And once we do, we reach a surprising conclusion -- the Pistons are a better offensive team than the Suns. In fact, they're better than everybody. Detroit averages an amazing 110.1 points per 100 possessions, more than two points better than their closest rivals, Cleveland and Dallas.
Similarly, Detroit's vaunted defense appears to have taken a step back. The Pistons rank a surprisingly poor 16th in Defensive Efficiency, below even the Charlotte Bobcats.
Again, this might be shocking given the Pistons' reputation, but the numbers don't lie. Detroit has suffered from a puzzling inability to cover the defensive boards -- only Portland is worse in Defensive Rebound Rate -- and their opponent field-goal percentage of 44.8 percent barely beats the league average of 45.0 percent.
So for the first 30 games, at least, our stereotypes have been turned on their heads.
The plodding, grind-it-out Pistons actually have used an unstoppable offensive attack to help cover for a mediocre defense, while the blazing fast Suns are the ones winning with a suffocating defense. It's almost as if the two franchises switched rosters and decided not to tell anybody.
But thanks to tools like Pace Factor, Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency, we can easily spot the trends that, in many cases, simple per-game averages mask.
In this case, it means we should think again about who the league's defensive and offensive stalwarts are, because it's the opposite of what we've been led to believe.
LINK
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Archive
Editor's note: Today we are introducing live, daily updates of John Hollinger's key statistical measures for NBA teams.
To go directly to the new Hollinger Team Stats page, click here.
Or click here for ESPN.com's Hollinger Player Statistics.
Mention the Phoenix Suns to anyone who follows the NBA, and the first words that come to mind are all about offense: running and gunning, 3-point shooting, slick passing and alley-oops. Just in case that image wasn't already cemented in our heads, the Suns went out and hung 47 on Miami in the first quarter of Friday's ESPN game against the Heat.
Dig a little deeper, however, and you'll discover something different: Defense, not offense, is what's carrying the Suns so far.
That's a surprise if you look only at per-game scoring stats.
The Suns are the league's highest-scoring team at 104.0 points per game, nearly two points ahead of their closest competitor. But in terms of points allowed, they rank only 16th at 96.9 per game. Clearly, one would think, the Suns had hardly changed their stripes from the score-first-ask-questions-later approach of a year ago.
However, that analysis ignores a very important fact: Phoenix games feature more possessions for each team than typical NBA contests. Because Steve Nash is pushing the ball up court so quickly and the other Suns are so ready to launch it, the average Suns game has an estimated 98.2 possessions for each team.
OUR NEW NUMBERS
HOLLINGER STATS
• Pace Factor
• Assist Ratio
• Turnover Ratio
• Offensive Rebound Rate
• Defensive Rebound Rate
• Rebound Rate
• Effective Field-Goal Percentage
• True Shooting Percentage
• Offensive Efficiency
• Defensive Efficiency
I know that from a statistic I use called Pace Factor, which measures how many possessions a team uses per 48 minutes. And it turns out that Phoenix leads the league in that department by a wide margin, using about five extra possessions per game compared to the average team.
Because of that, we should expect Phoenix's stats to be inflated. In any given game, those five extra possessions provide five more chances for each team to score, explaining why the score of a typical Suns game is so much higher than it is for the rest of the league.
It also means we have to adjust our perceptions of the Suns on both sides of the ball. Offensively, because of their blazing fast pace, they may not be quite as good as their gaudy points-per-game average makes things appear. And defensively, because their opponents get more opportunities, the Suns could be substantially better than their per-game average shows.
Fortunately, we have a simple way of making that adjustment. I keep track of two statistics called Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency that eliminate the impact of pace by measuring points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions. By doing so, it allows us to make apples-to-apples comparisons of fast-paced teams like Phoenix with plodders like Indiana or Detroit.
And once we make the adjustment, the results might raise a few eyebrows. The Suns still are a quality offensive team -- they rank seventh in the league in Offensive Efficiency through Monday's games. (Incidentally, all these rankings are now available to ESPN Insiders.) But defensively, they're even better, ranking second overall in the league -- barely behind No. 1 San Antonio and well ahead of third-ranked Indiana.
Since this conclusion flies so completely in the face of conventional wisdom, let me introduce a few numbers to back up my contention. For starters, the Suns are fifth in the league in opponent field-goal percentage at 43.1 percent. But that number looks a lot better once you consider how rarely Phoenix's opponents get freebies: Per opponent field-goal attempt, the Suns give up fewer free-throw attempts than any team except Detroit.
Additionally, Phoenix allows a below-average number of 3-point attempts (only 18.0 percent of opponent tries are from downtown, compared to the league average of 19.4 percent), and permit a below-average number to go in (33.9 percent instead of the league's 35.5 percent).
Thus, while the Suns may not fit our stereotype of a physical, grind-it-out defensive team, they have defended better than 28 of the other 29 teams in 2005-06.
Phoenix's example covers one end of the pace spectrum, but there's an equally compelling story among slow-paced clubs, because a team we associate with grind-it-out defense has been a mirror image of the Suns this season, also in unexpected ways.
The Detroit Pistons won a championship and came within a whisker of a second behind a suffocating defense, and at first glance you might think little had changed this year. The Pistons allow only 91.7 points per game, ranking them seventh in the league in that category, while their offensive average of 99.3 points is "only" ninth.
But evaluating Detroit has the opposite problem that we discussed with evaluating Phoenix: The Pistons walk it up the court nearly every possession and routinely grind the clock down to single digits before shooting.
As a result, the Pistons are the league's second slowest-paced team at 88.6 possessions per game -- only Memphis is slower. And looking at the league Pace Factor standings, you'll see that they use nearly 10 possessions per game fewer than the Suns.
Considering that information, it's hardly surprising that Phoenix's per-game averages of points scored and points allowed are so much greater than Detroit's. Only by evaluating these teams on a per-possession basis, using Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, can we make a relevant comparison between the two teams.
And once we do, we reach a surprising conclusion -- the Pistons are a better offensive team than the Suns. In fact, they're better than everybody. Detroit averages an amazing 110.1 points per 100 possessions, more than two points better than their closest rivals, Cleveland and Dallas.
Similarly, Detroit's vaunted defense appears to have taken a step back. The Pistons rank a surprisingly poor 16th in Defensive Efficiency, below even the Charlotte Bobcats.
Again, this might be shocking given the Pistons' reputation, but the numbers don't lie. Detroit has suffered from a puzzling inability to cover the defensive boards -- only Portland is worse in Defensive Rebound Rate -- and their opponent field-goal percentage of 44.8 percent barely beats the league average of 45.0 percent.
So for the first 30 games, at least, our stereotypes have been turned on their heads.
The plodding, grind-it-out Pistons actually have used an unstoppable offensive attack to help cover for a mediocre defense, while the blazing fast Suns are the ones winning with a suffocating defense. It's almost as if the two franchises switched rosters and decided not to tell anybody.
But thanks to tools like Pace Factor, Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency, we can easily spot the trends that, in many cases, simple per-game averages mask.
In this case, it means we should think again about who the league's defensive and offensive stalwarts are, because it's the opposite of what we've been led to believe.
LINK
- 1,930
- 11
New stats show Suns excel on D, Pistons on offense
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Archive
Editor's note: Today we are introducing live, daily updates of John Hollinger's key statistical measures for NBA teams.
To go directly to the new Hollinger Team Stats page, click here.
Or click here for ESPN.com's Hollinger Player Statistics.
Mention the Phoenix Suns to anyone who follows the NBA, and the first words that come to mind are all about offense: running and gunning, 3-point shooting, slick passing and alley-oops. Just in case that image wasn't already cemented in our heads, the Suns went out and hung 47 on Miami in the first quarter of Friday's ESPN game against the Heat.
Dig a little deeper, however, and you'll discover something different: Defense, not offense, is what's carrying the Suns so far.
That's a surprise if you look only at per-game scoring stats.
The Suns are the league's highest-scoring team at 104.0 points per game, nearly two points ahead of their closest competitor. But in terms of points allowed, they rank only 16th at 96.9 per game. Clearly, one would think, the Suns had hardly changed their stripes from the score-first-ask-questions-later approach of a year ago.
However, that analysis ignores a very important fact: Phoenix games feature more possessions for each team than typical NBA contests. Because Steve Nash is pushing the ball up court so quickly and the other Suns are so ready to launch it, the average Suns game has an estimated 98.2 possessions for each team.
OUR NEW NUMBERS
HOLLINGER STATS
• Pace Factor
• Assist Ratio
• Turnover Ratio
• Offensive Rebound Rate
• Defensive Rebound Rate
• Rebound Rate
• Effective Field-Goal Percentage
• True Shooting Percentage
• Offensive Efficiency
• Defensive Efficiency
I know that from a statistic I use called Pace Factor, which measures how many possessions a team uses per 48 minutes. And it turns out that Phoenix leads the league in that department by a wide margin, using about five extra possessions per game compared to the average team.
Because of that, we should expect Phoenix's stats to be inflated. In any given game, those five extra possessions provide five more chances for each team to score, explaining why the score of a typical Suns game is so much higher than it is for the rest of the league.
It also means we have to adjust our perceptions of the Suns on both sides of the ball. Offensively, because of their blazing fast pace, they may not be quite as good as their gaudy points-per-game average makes things appear. And defensively, because their opponents get more opportunities, the Suns could be substantially better than their per-game average shows.
Fortunately, we have a simple way of making that adjustment. I keep track of two statistics called Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency that eliminate the impact of pace by measuring points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions. By doing so, it allows us to make apples-to-apples comparisons of fast-paced teams like Phoenix with plodders like Indiana or Detroit.
And once we make the adjustment, the results might raise a few eyebrows. The Suns still are a quality offensive team -- they rank seventh in the league in Offensive Efficiency through Monday's games. (Incidentally, all these rankings are now available to ESPN Insiders.) But defensively, they're even better, ranking second overall in the league -- barely behind No. 1 San Antonio and well ahead of third-ranked Indiana.
Since this conclusion flies so completely in the face of conventional wisdom, let me introduce a few numbers to back up my contention. For starters, the Suns are fifth in the league in opponent field-goal percentage at 43.1 percent. But that number looks a lot better once you consider how rarely Phoenix's opponents get freebies: Per opponent field-goal attempt, the Suns give up fewer free-throw attempts than any team except Detroit.
Additionally, Phoenix allows a below-average number of 3-point attempts (only 18.0 percent of opponent tries are from downtown, compared to the league average of 19.4 percent), and permit a below-average number to go in (33.9 percent instead of the league's 35.5 percent).
Thus, while the Suns may not fit our stereotype of a physical, grind-it-out defensive team, they have defended better than 28 of the other 29 teams in 2005-06.
Phoenix's example covers one end of the pace spectrum, but there's an equally compelling story among slow-paced clubs, because a team we associate with grind-it-out defense has been a mirror image of the Suns this season, also in unexpected ways.
The Detroit Pistons won a championship and came within a whisker of a second behind a suffocating defense, and at first glance you might think little had changed this year. The Pistons allow only 91.7 points per game, ranking them seventh in the league in that category, while their offensive average of 99.3 points is "only" ninth.
But evaluating Detroit has the opposite problem that we discussed with evaluating Phoenix: The Pistons walk it up the court nearly every possession and routinely grind the clock down to single digits before shooting.
As a result, the Pistons are the league's second slowest-paced team at 88.6 possessions per game -- only Memphis is slower. And looking at the league Pace Factor standings, you'll see that they use nearly 10 possessions per game fewer than the Suns.
Considering that information, it's hardly surprising that Phoenix's per-game averages of points scored and points allowed are so much greater than Detroit's. Only by evaluating these teams on a per-possession basis, using Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, can we make a relevant comparison between the two teams.
And once we do, we reach a surprising conclusion -- the Pistons are a better offensive team than the Suns. In fact, they're better than everybody. Detroit averages an amazing 110.1 points per 100 possessions, more than two points better than their closest rivals, Cleveland and Dallas.
Similarly, Detroit's vaunted defense appears to have taken a step back. The Pistons rank a surprisingly poor 16th in Defensive Efficiency, below even the Charlotte Bobcats.
Again, this might be shocking given the Pistons' reputation, but the numbers don't lie. Detroit has suffered from a puzzling inability to cover the defensive boards -- only Portland is worse in Defensive Rebound Rate -- and their opponent field-goal percentage of 44.8 percent barely beats the league average of 45.0 percent.
So for the first 30 games, at least, our stereotypes have been turned on their heads.
The plodding, grind-it-out Pistons actually have used an unstoppable offensive attack to help cover for a mediocre defense, while the blazing fast Suns are the ones winning with a suffocating defense. It's almost as if the two franchises switched rosters and decided not to tell anybody.
But thanks to tools like Pace Factor, Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency, we can easily spot the trends that, in many cases, simple per-game averages mask.
In this case, it means we should think again about who the league's defensive and offensive stalwarts are, because it's the opposite of what we've been led to believe.
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By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
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Mention the Phoenix Suns to anyone who follows the NBA, and the first words that come to mind are all about offense: running and gunning, 3-point shooting, slick passing and alley-oops. Just in case that image wasn't already cemented in our heads, the Suns went out and hung 47 on Miami in the first quarter of Friday's ESPN game against the Heat.
Dig a little deeper, however, and you'll discover something different: Defense, not offense, is what's carrying the Suns so far.
That's a surprise if you look only at per-game scoring stats.
The Suns are the league's highest-scoring team at 104.0 points per game, nearly two points ahead of their closest competitor. But in terms of points allowed, they rank only 16th at 96.9 per game. Clearly, one would think, the Suns had hardly changed their stripes from the score-first-ask-questions-later approach of a year ago.
However, that analysis ignores a very important fact: Phoenix games feature more possessions for each team than typical NBA contests. Because Steve Nash is pushing the ball up court so quickly and the other Suns are so ready to launch it, the average Suns game has an estimated 98.2 possessions for each team.
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HOLLINGER STATS
• Pace Factor
• Assist Ratio
• Turnover Ratio
• Offensive Rebound Rate
• Defensive Rebound Rate
• Rebound Rate
• Effective Field-Goal Percentage
• True Shooting Percentage
• Offensive Efficiency
• Defensive Efficiency
I know that from a statistic I use called Pace Factor, which measures how many possessions a team uses per 48 minutes. And it turns out that Phoenix leads the league in that department by a wide margin, using about five extra possessions per game compared to the average team.
Because of that, we should expect Phoenix's stats to be inflated. In any given game, those five extra possessions provide five more chances for each team to score, explaining why the score of a typical Suns game is so much higher than it is for the rest of the league.
It also means we have to adjust our perceptions of the Suns on both sides of the ball. Offensively, because of their blazing fast pace, they may not be quite as good as their gaudy points-per-game average makes things appear. And defensively, because their opponents get more opportunities, the Suns could be substantially better than their per-game average shows.
Fortunately, we have a simple way of making that adjustment. I keep track of two statistics called Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency that eliminate the impact of pace by measuring points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions. By doing so, it allows us to make apples-to-apples comparisons of fast-paced teams like Phoenix with plodders like Indiana or Detroit.
And once we make the adjustment, the results might raise a few eyebrows. The Suns still are a quality offensive team -- they rank seventh in the league in Offensive Efficiency through Monday's games. (Incidentally, all these rankings are now available to ESPN Insiders.) But defensively, they're even better, ranking second overall in the league -- barely behind No. 1 San Antonio and well ahead of third-ranked Indiana.
Since this conclusion flies so completely in the face of conventional wisdom, let me introduce a few numbers to back up my contention. For starters, the Suns are fifth in the league in opponent field-goal percentage at 43.1 percent. But that number looks a lot better once you consider how rarely Phoenix's opponents get freebies: Per opponent field-goal attempt, the Suns give up fewer free-throw attempts than any team except Detroit.
Additionally, Phoenix allows a below-average number of 3-point attempts (only 18.0 percent of opponent tries are from downtown, compared to the league average of 19.4 percent), and permit a below-average number to go in (33.9 percent instead of the league's 35.5 percent).
Thus, while the Suns may not fit our stereotype of a physical, grind-it-out defensive team, they have defended better than 28 of the other 29 teams in 2005-06.
Phoenix's example covers one end of the pace spectrum, but there's an equally compelling story among slow-paced clubs, because a team we associate with grind-it-out defense has been a mirror image of the Suns this season, also in unexpected ways.
The Detroit Pistons won a championship and came within a whisker of a second behind a suffocating defense, and at first glance you might think little had changed this year. The Pistons allow only 91.7 points per game, ranking them seventh in the league in that category, while their offensive average of 99.3 points is "only" ninth.
But evaluating Detroit has the opposite problem that we discussed with evaluating Phoenix: The Pistons walk it up the court nearly every possession and routinely grind the clock down to single digits before shooting.
As a result, the Pistons are the league's second slowest-paced team at 88.6 possessions per game -- only Memphis is slower. And looking at the league Pace Factor standings, you'll see that they use nearly 10 possessions per game fewer than the Suns.
Considering that information, it's hardly surprising that Phoenix's per-game averages of points scored and points allowed are so much greater than Detroit's. Only by evaluating these teams on a per-possession basis, using Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, can we make a relevant comparison between the two teams.
And once we do, we reach a surprising conclusion -- the Pistons are a better offensive team than the Suns. In fact, they're better than everybody. Detroit averages an amazing 110.1 points per 100 possessions, more than two points better than their closest rivals, Cleveland and Dallas.
Similarly, Detroit's vaunted defense appears to have taken a step back. The Pistons rank a surprisingly poor 16th in Defensive Efficiency, below even the Charlotte Bobcats.
Again, this might be shocking given the Pistons' reputation, but the numbers don't lie. Detroit has suffered from a puzzling inability to cover the defensive boards -- only Portland is worse in Defensive Rebound Rate -- and their opponent field-goal percentage of 44.8 percent barely beats the league average of 45.0 percent.
So for the first 30 games, at least, our stereotypes have been turned on their heads.
The plodding, grind-it-out Pistons actually have used an unstoppable offensive attack to help cover for a mediocre defense, while the blazing fast Suns are the ones winning with a suffocating defense. It's almost as if the two franchises switched rosters and decided not to tell anybody.
But thanks to tools like Pace Factor, Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency, we can easily spot the trends that, in many cases, simple per-game averages mask.
In this case, it means we should think again about who the league's defensive and offensive stalwarts are, because it's the opposite of what we've been led to believe.
LINK
- 17,676
- 24,081
- 17,676
- 24,081
- 1,930
- 11
You're really not trying to understand or look at things from another angle, so just forget it. I already said that using numbers for a guy who has played 22 minutes in the entire season is pointless, so I don't know why you ignored that.
And therefore exposes its flaw and why using it as an indicator of anything is futile. Kevin Durant has the worst plus minus of those 5, Russell Westbrook's is negative though in many circles he is seen as our most important player. most of these advanced stats are stupid. PAR (points + assists + rebounds) would be a better indication of productivity though I might even take it a step further and give you points for blocks too, subtract 1 for turnover and fouls and it would just give you the net amount of positive things you did. These advance stats are garbage though, they create more wholes and misconceptions than they fill.
- 1,930
- 11
You're really not trying to understand or look at things from another angle, so just forget it. I already said that using numbers for a guy who has played 22 minutes in the entire season is pointless, so I don't know why you ignored that.
And therefore exposes its flaw and why using it as an indicator of anything is futile. Kevin Durant has the worst plus minus of those 5, Russell Westbrook's is negative though in many circles he is seen as our most important player. most of these advanced stats are stupid. PAR (points + assists + rebounds) would be a better indication of productivity though I might even take it a step further and give you points for blocks too, subtract 1 for turnover and fouls and it would just give you the net amount of positive things you did. These advance stats are garbage though, they create more wholes and misconceptions than they fill.
- 3,160
- 10
In summary ...
We're only in a quarter of the season.
Chris Paul isn't playing better than Will, Rose, nor Westbrook.
Look at it for what it is ... until he proves otherwise, RIGHT NOW ... he doesn't have that #1 spot.
We're only in a quarter of the season.
Chris Paul isn't playing better than Will, Rose, nor Westbrook.
Look at it for what it is ... until he proves otherwise, RIGHT NOW ... he doesn't have that #1 spot.
- 3,160
- 10
In summary ...
We're only in a quarter of the season.
Chris Paul isn't playing better than Will, Rose, nor Westbrook.
Look at it for what it is ... until he proves otherwise, RIGHT NOW ... he doesn't have that #1 spot.
We're only in a quarter of the season.
Chris Paul isn't playing better than Will, Rose, nor Westbrook.
Look at it for what it is ... until he proves otherwise, RIGHT NOW ... he doesn't have that #1 spot.
- 92,276
- 127,801
Who really uses plus minus though?
