Rip Hamilton worth a shot, but Bulls shouldn’t expect too much of an impact
At the very good
stats-based blog Wages of Wins, Andres Alvarez argues that the Bulls are basically wasting their money on shooting guard Richard Hamilton with a two-year, $10 million deal that carries a team option for a third season. Hamilton has the lowest Wins Produced (a stat the site’s esteemed author, David Berri, created) among all of Chicago’s options at the position, Alvarez points out. Why would you pay someone $10 million over two years if he’s worse by the numbers than Keith Bogans, Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer?
There’s no question that Hamilton, who turns 34 in February, is on the decline. He’s a below-average shooter now, and though the numbers continue to grade him out as a neutral presence on defense, he’ll slip there, too, as his quickness goes. But context is everything, and in the context of the Bulls, Hamilton is worth a flier, even if takes them to the edge of the luxury tax.
The Bulls did not have a shooting guard who was dependable on both ends of the floor last season. Brewer is a fierce defender and fine cutter on offense, but he can’t shoot. Having two players on the court (Brewer and a center, whether it’s Joakim Noah or Omer Asik) who lack range can squeeze any offense to death. Chicago scored
nearly seven fewer points per 100 possessions with Brewer on the floor last season, and while you can’t pin that all on him given the teammates he most often played alongside, he didn’t help.
Korver might be the best pure shooter in the league. But coach Tom Thibodeau did not trust his defense, and the Bulls worked to hide him on an opponent’s least-threatening player. Bogans can shoot stand-still jumpers and defend, but he is perhaps the most static offensive player in the NBA. He can’t catch-and-shoot off screens like Korver and Hamilton, and he’s not a cutter like Brewer. And even at this one offensive skill — three-point shooting — Bogans checks in at about the league average (35.5 percent for his career, after making 38 percent last season).
So the Bulls have taken a flier on someone who might be able to combine Korver’s catch-and-shoot skills with respectable defense, solid passing skills, an off-the-dribble game he can use in a pinch and (against the right opponents) an ability to back up the poor, overworked Luol Deng at small forward.
It
is a flier, though. Hamilton shot only 39 percent last season coming off screens, according to Synergy Sports. He was much better as a spot-up shooter, something that might reflect the aging process a bit. And the Bulls actually use the catch-and-shoot game a ton already, mostly because Korver and Deng are both comfortable jetting around picks. Nearly 7 percent of Chicago’s possessions ended with a shot taken by a player who had just come off as screen, per Synergy; only five teams ended a greater share of their possessions this way. What more can Hamilton bring? Hamilton prefers 20-footers to threes, so won’t the Bulls be running the same stuff they run for Korver, but in a tighter space?
I’ll get to that in a second, but as an aside: Chicago, compared to the rest of the league, ran few traditional post-up plays and rarely got out on the break. Only two teams finished fewer possessions via post-ups, and only eight were in transition less often. If the Bulls want to add more spice to their offense, these are two places to look. Carlos Boozer is an efficient post scorer, and Noah looked ready to make a leap on offense early last season before hurting his thumb.
Hamilton would appear to be unhelpful in these areas, but basketball is a complex thing. For instance: When Korver catches the ball off of screens, his two main options are to shoot or pass to the big man who set the final screen, presuming that player’s defender has jumped out to help on Korver.
A third option exists, but it’s outside of Korver’s skill set: Catch the ball, dribble into the paint and either launch a floater or dish to an open man somewhere else.
Korver essentially never shoots inside of 20 feet; Hamilton has typically attempted about 5.5 such shots per game, and he makes them at a better-than-average rate. He is also the best passer among these four shooting guards, though Brewer has improved his passing, and Korver is very smart at throwing that initial mass mentioned above.
It’s possible that Hamilton’s off-the-bounce game, if used selectively, could create openings that don’t currently exist in Chicago’s offense. It’s also possible that Hamilton makes no difference at all. As Alvarez notes, all of Hamilton’s numbers are trending down, and his preference for mid-ranges shots over three-pointers might create spacing issues that torpedo a lot of possible openings before they happen.
But if Hamilton helps on offense while holding his own on defense, he could provide a small nudge to a team that doesn’t need much more to chase a title. And it’s not as if the Bulls had their pick of everyone on the market. The best shooting guard options — including Arron Afflalo and Jason Richardson, — were restricted free agents and/or out of Chicago’s price range. The Bulls are over the cap, and thus can only offer the full mid-level exception, worth $5 million per season. It looks now as if they could have made a run at Jamal Crawford for that, but he’s a combo guard who loves to shoot, has trouble on defense and can’t spell Deng. A true small forward could have helped, but the best of those have also fallen above Chicago’s price point, and you still need someone to log minutes at shooting guard.
Hamilton fits decently and comes at the right price. He may not be a difference-maker, but when you’re this close to a title, you reach for the right piece — and make sure you can cut bait in short order if it turns out to be the wrong one.
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