2009: BUY GOLD. NOW.

[dc sounds]

Originally Posted by LazyJ10

Lots to learn still, but the generic is:

Options are contracts, but not obligations, to buy stock at a date in the future.

Meaning, the contract itself trades...

You can have calls/puts on them.

Originally created as a hedge strategy, I believe.

Volatile, but less capital required initially.

thats true. options are financial derivatives. but they derive their value as a contract to buy stock in the future at a fixed price, usually, the grant date.For example, I grant you an option today 12/31/08, the stock is trading $5/share, the option is a contract for the right to buy that stock for a set term inthe future at $5/share. Basically you want to own that option if you are speculating that the stock will rise in value, to say, $8/share, by owning thatoption, you have the right, not the obligation, to buy it at $5 share and thus you have an intrinsic value of $3.

 

[dey know yayo]

i don't exercise options, i trade them.

 

[lazyj10]

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by LazyJ10

Lots to learn still, but the generic is:

Options are contracts, but not obligations, to buy stock at a date in the future.

Meaning, the contract itself trades...

You can have calls/puts on them.

Originally created as a hedge strategy, I believe.

Volatile, but less capital required initially.

Options trading has been lucrative the past few months with all of the volatility.
As soon as I moved out of equities the 1st of September I just went into options.

Gold is a good investment but it also involves plenty of manipulation by Central Banks. I think Gold will trade in the $1300-$1500 range towards the latter half of 2009.
I doubt it'll hit 10k though even in 3-5 years time. Gold hitting 10k means a complete collapse of the global monetary system; not only the USD.

My money is tied up, so that's essentially what I did. Learned a lot, lost some, got some...life goes on.

Trying to learn more about it.....I just know with the .VIX as high as it was, made a lot of sense to take advantage of the volatility (and it cost me, sometoo).

 

[dey know yayo]

the Vix is a derivative of a derivative of a derivative. high volatility only does you good in the first few weeks of it. after that, implied volatility makesoption premiums ridiculously high. you'd probably have an easier time shorting options than buying them since mid-october.

 

[dc sounds]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

property acquisition? in the middle of a real estate bubble burst? real estate isn't even close to bottoming.

i'm just curious tho. if you are speculating that the dollar is going to be so weak that gold will be $10k/oz in 2 years, if you were to buy a house andget a mortgage today, that mortgage would look like a joke in 2 years based on your speculation of the dollar

 

[nicefro]

DKY, what do you expect from the ultrashorts for the month of jan. specifically skf and srs?

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

the manipulation is the reason it's so low right now and the manipulation is stopping as the Fed starts the devaluation of the USD against gold to prop up the economy and set up a new monetary order globally. the backwardation of gold this month is evidence of the fact that the naked shorts are no longer going to be supported by the Fed and private banks.

i expect a reversion to convertibility within 5-10 years, it is an economic imperative.

The manipulation may be easing. However, manipulation never stops when it comes to Central Banks.

Backwardation doesn't necessarily signal anything huge. Backwardations occur all the time. It is rare in Gold but if it would happens it's at a timewhere the Global monetary system was on the brink of complete chaos the day that a MM fund 'broke the buck' and the world is slipping into a depressionfor all intents and purposes.

Gold will edge higher as the USD ceases to be the world's sole reserve currency but 10k is a stretch.

 

[lazyj10]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

the Vix is a derivative of a derivative of a derivative. high volatility only does you good in the first few weeks of it. after that, implied volatility makes option premiums ridiculously high. you'd probably have an easier time shorting options than buying them since mid-october.

Right, I don't exercise them either....My losses off-set my gains, which help my TR anyhow.

I played Molson ahead of earnings, and did ok. Trust me, I'm not talking huge amounts of money like you.

Bought V calls when we had a huge dow loss, which knocked the price of V down...part of this was just luck, I had Nov and Jan calls originally.

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by nicefro

DKY, what do you expect from the ultrashorts for the month of jan. specifically skf and srs?

They're only useful for day trading. One can make some pretty sizable returns day trading ultrashort's.
They shouldn't be used as investment vehicles though. Especially in this market.
You will get burned if you use them as investment vehicles.

They'll move sideways most of January.

 

[nicefro]

I'm getting burned as we speak.

 

[TheGodFresco]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo


My prediction: gold breaks $2000/oz in 2009 and $10,000/oz by 2012.

It is currenctly about $850/oz. Save your financial future from collapse. BUY GOLD NOW.

If this is true, my family would be very wealthy.

 

[fifthname]

There are some smart cats on this board. I'm reading every post, not even really getting whats going on

Props

 

[bonafide hustla]

bumping for the said challenge and informational purposes

 

[dey know yayo]

dc sounds- a mortgage now won't offset the REAL decline in real estate prices (which will be a hell of a lot more than the nominal decline). however, ifyou own a house, refinance asap. mortgage rates are at ridiculous lows.

nicefro- i think they'll do quite well. i'll be buying huge positions in SRS on friday. commercial real estate stocks look terrible. they're goodfor daytrading and swing trading, but bad investments for the long term. i still think SRS gets above 150 easily though.

but once we hit november lows, i'll be closing my bearish positions and going long gold stocks and bullion on margin.

 

[dey know yayo]

the Fed is going to stop supporting naked shorts. the Fed wants gold to rise in massive amounts. it prevents domestic hyperinflation and allows for all thisexcess liquidity to be soaked up without the public's notice. if the Fed doesn't let gold rise big, we're going to have huge price increases inconsumer goods, which is going to spark a public uproar. inflation is a tax. the Fed's job is to hide it from the public.

 

[prmj23]

The article was a so so read but Im against converting all your savings into one assest. For the peeps here that have an extra 100k gold def would be a goodinvestment at least until the fed stops printing money. But the valuations that Dey put seem a little to high. Not saying it cant happen but damn that would bea huge gain. I myself started buying started buying a few gold miners stock but i dont expect a huge upside as you detailed

 

[nicefro]

A slow steady decline like in November would be ideal for these ultrashorts. That way we could see SKF and SRS 250+ again. Highly unlikely though.

 

[dey know yayo]

ps oil seems to be wanting to put in a bottom.

 

[dey know yayo]

right now all your savings ARE in one asset- the US Dollar. which is on the brink of collapse.

ps- ben baller where are you, accept my bet.

 

[prmj23]

oh yeah csco @ around 16, hmmmmm

 

[prmj23]

That is true but do you really believe our dollar is going to collapse to the brink of 3rd world status? It is true we are in a messed up economy now bailingout of the dollar seems a little to bearish for me.

I dont think Ben is going to take that bet, dude is focused on growing him own dollar built company

 

[springfieldxd]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

right now all your savings ARE in one asset- the US Dollar. which is on the brink of collapse.

ps- ben baller where are you, accept my bet.

side bets anyone?

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

the Fed is going to stop supporting naked shorts. the Fed wants gold to rise in massive amounts. it prevents domestic hyperinflation and allows for all this excess liquidity to be soaked up without the public's notice. if the Fed doesn't let gold rise big, we're going to have huge price increases in consumer goods, which is going to spark a public uproar. inflation is a tax. the Fed's job is to hide it from the public.

That would be the case if you believe that deflation can be mitigated., which you do.

The vast majority of paper that the Fed has made available has no velocity to it. It's sitting at the banks to guard against further write downs anddevaluations.

The Fed will print plenty of money for Obama's stimulus but at 500b/year that's not enough for hyperinflation.
The US population has lost $8 trillion in 'wealth' the past year alone. They would have to first replace that and than add unto it in large amounts.

I believe that deflation will continue into the majority of next year at least. The Fed is trying to prevent that ( lower prices are bad for Centralbankers

) but in reality they can only slow it down. Slowing down thecorrection will only lead to a longer #%#%** economy than there needs to be.

 

[thagreatj]

Originally Posted by LazyJ10

Lots to learn still, but the generic is:

Options are contracts, but not obligations, to buy stock at a date in the future.

Meaning, the contract itself trades...

You can have calls/puts on them.

Originally created as a hedge strategy, I believe.

Volatile, but less capital required initially.

thank you. was just curious.

 

[memphisboi55]

yayo,


ill throw 10k in.