[h2]West's pecking order has familiar flavor[/h2]By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
OK, hungry fans, it's time to turn our attention to the Western side of the menu, after Monday's look at
the new pecking order in the East.
I'm not sure the pecking order in the West is quite so "new;" less changed in these parts since the end of last season. But I'm here tobreak it down all the same. Much like the East, the West can be broken into five distinct groups. Make that five and a half, actually, as there's oneadditional category we didn't have in the East.
And, like yesterday, we'll be sticking with an epicurean theme. Without further ado, here's how it lays out.
[h3]Group IA: The Chef's Special[/h3]
There's a lot of good stuff on the menu, but this one looks a cut above. Sure, it costs more, but the reviewers all say it's worth every cent.You'll be talking about this meal for weeks.
Los Angeles Lakers
Consider this: The defending champs won a title despite getting virtually nothing from
Andrew Bynum during the postseason. If he comes back and plays to his capabilitiesthey're going to be scary good.
Of more immediate interest, however, is their de facto swap of
Trevor Ariza for
Ron Artest. Artest is nuts and lost a step at the offensive end last season, buthe's still an elite defensive player and he's a better spot-up shooter than Ariza. (For those who watched only the playoffs, I'll remind you thatAriza was a 29.9 percent career 3-point shooter when the postseason began. Let's not get carried away with a well-timed hot streak.)
Committing to Artest for five years was foolish, but the swap makes the Lakers better in the short term. With
Lamar Odom and
ShannonBrown re-signed at very reasonable prices and Phil Jackson coming back, L.A. has quietly (for them) had a strong offseason.
Of course, the greatest break for the Lakers is that they're still in the Western Conference. While the East is top-heavy with Orlando, Cleveland andBoston all loading up, L.A. remains the clear favorite to oppose one of those three in the Finals.
[h3]Group I: The Entrees[/h3]
Oh sure, you'll eat the free bread and order a side dish or two. But realistically, these will be the last and most memorable items on your plate atthe end of the season.
San Antonio Spurs
On paper, the Spurs look like the most legitimate aspirant to the Lakers' Western crown. They've added
Richard Jefferson and
Antonio McDyess without surrendering anyone important, giving the starting five a badly neededinfusion of scoring. Throw in the second-round theft of
DeJuan Blair and a returnfrom injury from
Ian Mahinmi and the Spurs should be deeper, too.
But all this depends on their stars carrying the mail.
Tim Duncan and
Manu Ginobili both broke down at the end of last season and, at their age, one wonders if theycan regain their previous form and sustain it through an entire season. Without knowing the answer to that major question, the Spurs merely rank as another ofthe West's hopefuls.
Denver Nuggets
Last spring, the Nuggets had the Lakers sweating bullets for four games and most of a fifth, so theoretically they entered the offseason on near-equal footing.However, money matters have prevented them from keeping up with the arms race among the other contenders. Denver isn't a high-revenue team despite itssuccess last season and is already over the luxury-tax threshold, so it had to manage its money carefully. As a result,
Linas Kleiza and
Dahntay Jones won't be back, and
Anthony Carter might not be either.
But the Nuggets' top six players return, including a re-signed
Chris Andersen,and trades brought in some younger help in rookie
Ty Lawson (one of my draftfavorites) and
Arron Afflalo. There isn't a huge margin of safety here, but ifthe Nuggets are healthy they'll still be really good.
Portland Trail Blazers
Nobody talks about the Blazers as serious contenders in the West, but we should. Portland had the best scoring margin in basketball after the All-Star breaklast season, and as I keep repeating, scoring margin predicts future success better than winning percentage.
Yes, they went one-and-done in the playoffs, but this team should be better this time around. The Blazers added
Andre Miller, vastly improving their backcourt depth, and returned
Martell Webster from injury. The only departure was
Channing Frye, who fell to the fringes of the rotation by the end of last season. Mostimportantly, one of the league's youngest nuclei gained a valuable year of experience and cut its playoff teeth. Watch out for these guys.
[h3]Group II: The Tasty Hors D'oeuvres[/h3]
Scrumptious in small doses, these clubs are hoping to steal your attention from the centerpiece, and at times it seems they might succeed. But eachlacks a key ingredient to keep it on our plate 'til June.
Utah Jazz
It's hard to get too jazzed up about a ride on the Utah bandwagon when it was healthy for the final 23 games of last season and went 8-15. The Jazz haveeffectively stood pat thus far this summer, drafting a backup point guard in
EricMaynor and retaining
Paul Millsap by matching Portland's offer sheet. Theymay also lose a breaking-down
Matt Harpring to retirement.
However, we're still waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Carlos Boozerdismayed everyone by opting in for the final year of his contract, leaving the Jazz well over the luxury-tax line. Pretty much everyone assumes they'lltrade him, and if Utah can score a quality wing player in the deal it could move up a class. Utah owns one other huge asset as well: the completely unprotected2010 first-round pick belonging to the Knicks.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs bought when everyone else sold, retaining
Jason Kidd and adding
Shawn Marion,
DrewGooden,
Kris Humphries,
Tim Thomas and
QuintonRoss this offseason. They are well into the tax and overpaid for Kidd especially (three years and $25 million at 36?), but if paying luxury tax doesn'tbother Mark Cuban then it's really not a problem.
Despite their age, the Mavs will try to play small and fast, with Kidd,
JasonTerry,
Josh Howard, Marion and
Dirk Nowitzki playing as a run-and-gun unit in crunch time. That could give them apuncher's chance at a playoff upset, but it's tough to see how they can match up physically against the powerful frontcourts the top contenderspossess.
Because of Cuban's willingness to spend, they're a far more intriguing team a year from now thanks to what may become the league's most covetedasset:
Erick Dampier's expiring, non-guaranteed $12 million in 2010-11. Casualfans may not realize how valuable this is in the current economy. Next summer a financially struggling team could trade a highly paid player to Dallas forDampier, waive him immediately and wipe their books totally clean. And given the current economic conditions, I have a feeling some teams will be willing to doit.
New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets didn't spend any money this summer and, based on recent history, maybe that's good thing. A series of bad free-agent contracts (
Peja Stojakovic,
MorrisPeterson,
James Posey) have tied the Hornets' hands and put them in taxterritory, though they did manage a slight upgrade at center with the
TysonChandler-
Emeka Okafor swap.
Chris Paul makes them a playoff team on his own, and offseason pickups
Darren Collison and
IkeDiogu might improve what was among the league's worst benches last season. But the Hornets might still try to shed a contract or two to get under thetax, and as things stand now they're going to get miserable production from the wings.
[h3]Group III: The Mystery Meat[/h3]
These teams are the equivalent of going to a foreign country and ordering blindly off a menu in another language. It might be awesome, it might beterrible; really, you have no idea. But it will definitely be different, and you'll probably walk away with a good story or two.
Los Angeles Clippers
They stunk last season, plus they're the Clippers, which means they could screw this up at a moment's notice. But the offseason certainly pleased theClipper faithful. First overall pick
Blake Griffin should be a double-double guyimmediately, and the trade of
Zach Randolph for
Quentin Richardson gives the Clips cap space for a free-agent run next year. Better yet, theyparlayed Richardson into frontcourt depth with a second deal with Minnesota for underrated forward
Craig Smith.
But the biggest reason to like the Clips is because they were going to be better anyway.
Baron Davis,
ChrisKaman and
Ricky Davis should all be in much better physical condition for thisgo-round, and second-year pro
Eric Gordon should improve, too. Whether it'senough for a playoff run remains to be seen, but this version of the Clips should keep us entertained.
Phoenix Suns
Thanks to a reluctance to pay luxury tax and some horrific cap management in prior offseasons, the Suns keep shedding personnel. Phoenix traded
Shaquille O'Neal for straight cap relief -- plus the already-released
Ben Wallace and the soon-to-be-released
Sasha Pavlovic -- when he came off an All-Star season. But instead of launching a fulltear-down operation they extended
Steve Nash, signed Channing Frye and re-signed
Grant Hill, which means they could still make the playoffs if
Amare Stoudemire is healthy.
We have no idea how well he'll recover from his eye injury or what the implications are for his game if the eye gives him problems. But if he's notplaying to his usual standard the Suns could embark on a long ride down. One quick note to file away if that happens: Oklahoma City has Phoenix's draftpick from the
Kurt Thomas salary dump in 2007, and there's no lottery protectionwhatsoever.
Oklahoma City Thunder
I think the Thunder are ready to move up the standings this season, but I'm just not sure how far. They opted to hold back on spending this summer and saveit for next year, when they'll have about $15 million in space under the cap. So any improvement this season will result from internal development by thecore of
Kevin Durant,
Jeff Green and
RussellWestbrook and the addition of draft pick
James Harden.
Is it possible Durant blows up, averages in the high 20s and leads these guys to the playoffs? Absolutely. But they depend an awful lot on one guy for theoffense, and that one guy has yet to demonstrate he can take high-percentage shots or create meaningful opportunities for others. And if injuries hit,there's not a lot of depth here.
[h3]Group IV: Can I Send This Plate Back?[/h3]
Sure, they look like decent appetizers at first glance. But once you have a few bites, it turns out there's something half-baked about each of theseclubs.
Golden State Warriors
Based on talent, the Warriors shouldn't be down here. They have plenty of offensive firepower with the return of
Monta Ellis and the addition of
Stephen Curry to go with the likes of
Corey Maggette,
AndrisBiedrins,
Stephen Jackson and summer-league star
Anthony Randolph.
Unfortunately, we already know they'll screw this up somehow. The dysfunctional mess of a front office is too busy running Don Nelson'sleast-favored players out of town to bother acquiring pieces that fit.
Al Harrington,
Jamal Crawford and
Marco Belinelli already departed with nothing to show for it, and
Brandan Wright's got next. With this roster and Nelson's basic M.O. of playing sevenshooting guards 30 minutes each, the Warriors are guaranteed to be among the worst defensive teams in the league, so if the offense isn't lights-outthey're gong to struggle.
Houston Rockets
Medical problems pretty much ended Houston's season before it started, as
YaoMing and
Tracy McGrady went under the knife and will contribute little, ifanything. Meanwhile, the de facto swap of Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza bodes well for Houston's future but doesn't alter its present outlook much.
That was the only major offseason move. Otherwise, Houston tried to supplement its future with the biggest run of property acquisitions since the LouisianaPurchase. Houston paid nearly $9 million to acquire the rights to Jermaine Taylor, Chase Budinger, Sergio Llull and David Andersen -- not their salaries, mindyou, just the right to be the ones paying them -- but only Andersen is likely to be in the rotation this season.
If the Rockets stay healthy and get bust-out years from
Aaron Brooks and
Carl Landry it's possible they can stay on the fringes of the playoff race, but it'smore likely they'll struggle too much to score.
[h3]Group V: Roadkill[/h3]
I'm pretty sure this is meat, but it tastes like an animal not normally served in restaurants, and I think I see a tread mark. We're outta here…
Memphis Grizzlies
Chris Wallace's nameplate still says general manager, but it's obvious that owner Michael Heisley is calling the shots on personnel. As usual when anowner meddles, the results have been disastrous. What kind of a buffoon trades
PauGasol for pennies on the dollar and then a year later acquires Zach Randolph at the same money? The same kind that prefers trading for Randolph to tradingfor Carlos Boozer, or to making a run at
David Lee, or to just setting $16 million onfire. Oh, and he wants
Allen Iverson too. Great.
Despite a near-empty arena, the Griz still make money. That's partly because they'll do anything for $3 million, even trading a useful player(
Darko Milicic) for a finished one (Quentin Richardson). But the few fans left inMemphis will get to see two of the league's biggest ball hogs fight it out for shots every night when Randolph and
Rudy Gay take the court. One almost wants to see them add Iverson to the mix just to see ifthey could go an entire game without an assist.
Minnesota Timberwolves
While other teams have gained more attention as belt-tighteners, the T'pups have quietly joined their ranks. Trading Craig Smith just to be rid of a $2.7million obligation to
Sebastian Telfair next year has to qualify as a low point, andone gets the impression they're pretty happy to defer a $3 million obligation to Ricky Rubio a couple years into the future. They dumped
Mike Miller and
RandyFoye, eventually acquiring a non-guaranteed player they can waive (
Chucky Atkins),and their only foray into free agency was a low-wattage bid for
Ryan Hollins.
If
Al Jefferson returns to his All-Star-caliber level of the first half of lastseason it lifts Minnesota half a notch above doormat status, but the Wolves leaked a lot of talent since their strong January last season.
Sacramento Kings
Shell-shocked by increasingly horrific economics in Sacto and the woefully outdated Arco Arena, the Kings locked down financially while they wait to find outwhere their next home will be. If it's a new building in Sacramento, great, but if not, San Jose, Anaheim, Kansas City and others await with open arms.Either way, they won't spend a nickel without some certainty on this front.
The Kings did pick up a potential star in the draft in
Tyreke Evans and alow-budget breakout possibility in
Sergio Rodriguez, plus
Kevin Martin should be healthier. That should keep them run-of-the-mill bad rather thanhistorically awful, but optimists won't find a lot of ammunition here.
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