Top 10 small forwards for 2013-14.
Because we're extrapolating from a half-season of real results, the methodology was a little bit different from our forecast-based summer rankings. See the explainer at the end of the article for how these rankings were derived.
Durant
1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
TrueWARP: 20.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 8.8 | Overall Rank: 1
It's not news that Durant retains his stranglehold on the top spot in the small forward rankings. My colleague Tom Haberstroh already did a great job of detailing the increase in Durant's value this season, so I won't repeat that here. This summer, Durant's projected WARP (18.3) was more than twice as high as the No. 2 player on the list, Paul Pierce (8.6). The emergence of Paul George has at least brought someone else into the periphery of the conversation, but unless LeBron James goes back to the 3, Durant will remain the NBA's top small forward for many years to come.
George
2. Paul George, Indiana Pacers
TrueWARP: 14.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 6.7 | Overall Rank: 6
What can you say about the incredible progress of George? He won the NBA Most Improved Player award last season, and has gotten exponentially better since. George's usage rate is up nearly 5 percent, his true shooting percentage is up from .531 to .585, and his turnover rate has fallen by 3.4 percent. It's a combination of upgrades that you just don't see, not at this volume of usage. So while his No. 7 ranking this summer now looks silly, in my defense I'll re-print the words I wrote at the time: "Speaking of George, his playoff breakout isn't represented here, and subjectively, I do see that performance as a coming-of-age rather than a fluke. So while I can't get ATH to replicate the effect, I think George will soar near the top of these rankings and will supplant [Danny] Granger in the former Indiana offensive hierarchy."
Batum
3. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 9.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.9 | Overall Rank: 21
In his sixth season, we have to give up on the idea that Batum is going to put up the kind of offensive numbers you expect from a true foundation player. Instead, he's become one of the NBA's elite role players, and the ascension of Wesley Matthews as Batum's wing partner makes that more than OK for the Trail Blazers. Batum has been used as more of a playmaker, soaking up some of that responsibility from Damian Lillard, but his spike in assists has been somewhat undermined by an uptick in turnovers.
Leonard
4. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 7.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.8 | Overall Rank: 49
Leonard has fallen one place in the ratings, but that's more a product of a brutal underranking of George than anything Leonard has done. Leonard in fact has played the best ball of his career. Scoring, rebounding, passing, making plays on defense -- Leonard is doing all of these things more frequently than in his first two seasons. And best of all for Spurs fans, he still seems capable of doing so much more. None of the San Antonio's veteran stars has slipped to the point where Leonard really has to take that next step. His numbers likely will improve this season as his 30.7 percent shooting from deep regresses to his career standard.
Smith
5. Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons
TrueWARP: 7.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.4 | Overall Rank: 111
Smith was the No. 8 power forward in the summer rankings. That he ranks three spots higher as a 3 despite a brutal start to the season -- well, that tells you a lot about the state of the position in today's NBA. Smith's ability hasn't waned, nor, as best I can tell, has his effort. He's just not being used in a way that's conducive to efficient play. He's averaging 3.8 3-point attempts per game while shooting 24.8 percent from that distance. How can that happen?
Pierce
6. Paul Pierce, Brooklyn Nets
TrueWARP: 7.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 0.8 | Overall Rank: 164
Pierce's TrueWARP is coasting along on fumes at this point, as his rating is almost entirely made up by his forecast: He ranked second at the position in the summer version of this series. At 36 years old, it's highly likely that Pierce's 2014-15 forecast will be marked by pessimism. The Nets' dysfunction makes it hard to read just how Pierce has skidded to a career-worst 13.5 PER. However, it's troubling that even as Brooklyn has picked up its pace as a team, Pierce's production continues to flounder.
Parsons
7. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
TrueWARP: 7.0 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.0 | Overall Rank: 40
Parsons is one of the better glue players in the NBA. He has a full range of skills, ranging from perimeter defense to playmaking to long-range shooting. He can swing between both forward positions, and is a vocal leader in the locker room. He also just keeps getting better. Parsons is one of the biggest values to emerge out of the second round in the past decade.
Iguodala
8. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
TrueWARP: 6.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.8 | Overall Rank: 89
Iguodala has proven to be a perfect fit with the Warriors. It's no surprise. The dominant trait of Golden State's perimeter players was their elite ability to shoot from the outside. That's the weak part of Iguodala's game, but he does everything else well, and has graciously accepted his status as a complementary player. Iguodala's shortcoming used to be a propensity for holding the ball, but that's not an issue with the Warriors. Now he just finishes when needed, and his true shooting percentage has soared to .640. It's no coincidence that Golden State is 19-7 with Iggy in the lineup.
Ariza
9. Trevor Ariza, Washington Wizards
TrueWARP: 6.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.3 | Overall Rank: 38
Perhaps motivated by the sterling play of reserve Martell Webster and the drafting of fellow wing Otto Porter, Ariza has responded with arguably his finest season. His PER (16.3) is a career best, as is his true shooting percentage (.576). The strength of Washington's mediocre defense is forcing turnovers, especially live-ball miscues off steals that lead to John Wall pushing down the floor in transition. Ariza's ability to play the passing lanes is a big part of that formula.
Smith
10. J.R. Smith, New York Knicks
TrueWARP: 5.2 | 2013-14 WARP: -0.1 | Overall Rank: 293
That's not a misprint -- the frequency with which the Knicks use small lineups has resulted in Smith playing more 3 this season than 2. His best position may be a 6 -- as in not in the game. Smith has shot the ball almost impossibly bad this season. We don't quote raw field goal percentage that often, but when a scorer is shooting 34.8 percent, that tells you all you need to know. It's not getting better, either, as Smith is shooting 31.3 percent in four January games. He still ekes into the top 10 because of the credit he gets for his career baseline, one that's not going to look pretty for next season if things don't turn around.
Next five: Tyreke Evans, New Orleans Pelicans; Luol Deng, Cleveland Cavaliers; Matt Barnes, Los Angeles Clippers; Shawn Marion, Dallas Mavericks; Martell Webster, Washington Wizards.
Deng is often lauded for his intangibles, and he should be. It's impossible to quantify things like locker room chemistry or a player leading by example, but we know these things matter. In what has reportedly been a soap opera-ish Cavaliers locker room this season, the addition of Deng to fill the roster spot of Andrew Bynum could pay exponential dividends on the cohesiveness of the Cleveland roster from top to bottom. His production is pretty good, too, as his 17.4 PER is the best it's been in six years.
Also notable: Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings; Jordan Hamilton, Denver Nuggets; Arron Afflalo, Orlando Magic.
Why did the Raptors want to unload Gay? There are a lot of reasons, but consider that this season, his 0.9 WARP ranks 155th in the NBA, and he's making $17.9 million. That's not a combination of categories you want on your roster. The athletic Hamilton is once again providing the kind of big per-minute production that demands to be examined in a larger regular role. To be fair, Nuggets coach Brian Shaw has nearly doubled Hamilton's court time over last season, but he's still better than players getting a bigger chunk of playing time. For his career, Hamilton, 23, is shooting a league-average rate from deep, and is averaging 16.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Durant
1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
TrueWARP: 20.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 8.8 | Overall Rank: 1
It's not news that Durant retains his stranglehold on the top spot in the small forward rankings. My colleague Tom Haberstroh already did a great job of detailing the increase in Durant's value this season, so I won't repeat that here. This summer, Durant's projected WARP (18.3) was more than twice as high as the No. 2 player on the list, Paul Pierce (8.6). The emergence of Paul George has at least brought someone else into the periphery of the conversation, but unless LeBron James goes back to the 3, Durant will remain the NBA's top small forward for many years to come.
George
2. Paul George, Indiana Pacers
TrueWARP: 14.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 6.7 | Overall Rank: 6
What can you say about the incredible progress of George? He won the NBA Most Improved Player award last season, and has gotten exponentially better since. George's usage rate is up nearly 5 percent, his true shooting percentage is up from .531 to .585, and his turnover rate has fallen by 3.4 percent. It's a combination of upgrades that you just don't see, not at this volume of usage. So while his No. 7 ranking this summer now looks silly, in my defense I'll re-print the words I wrote at the time: "Speaking of George, his playoff breakout isn't represented here, and subjectively, I do see that performance as a coming-of-age rather than a fluke. So while I can't get ATH to replicate the effect, I think George will soar near the top of these rankings and will supplant [Danny] Granger in the former Indiana offensive hierarchy."
Batum
3. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 9.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.9 | Overall Rank: 21
In his sixth season, we have to give up on the idea that Batum is going to put up the kind of offensive numbers you expect from a true foundation player. Instead, he's become one of the NBA's elite role players, and the ascension of Wesley Matthews as Batum's wing partner makes that more than OK for the Trail Blazers. Batum has been used as more of a playmaker, soaking up some of that responsibility from Damian Lillard, but his spike in assists has been somewhat undermined by an uptick in turnovers.
Leonard
4. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 7.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.8 | Overall Rank: 49
Leonard has fallen one place in the ratings, but that's more a product of a brutal underranking of George than anything Leonard has done. Leonard in fact has played the best ball of his career. Scoring, rebounding, passing, making plays on defense -- Leonard is doing all of these things more frequently than in his first two seasons. And best of all for Spurs fans, he still seems capable of doing so much more. None of the San Antonio's veteran stars has slipped to the point where Leonard really has to take that next step. His numbers likely will improve this season as his 30.7 percent shooting from deep regresses to his career standard.
Smith
5. Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons
TrueWARP: 7.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.4 | Overall Rank: 111
Smith was the No. 8 power forward in the summer rankings. That he ranks three spots higher as a 3 despite a brutal start to the season -- well, that tells you a lot about the state of the position in today's NBA. Smith's ability hasn't waned, nor, as best I can tell, has his effort. He's just not being used in a way that's conducive to efficient play. He's averaging 3.8 3-point attempts per game while shooting 24.8 percent from that distance. How can that happen?
Pierce
6. Paul Pierce, Brooklyn Nets
TrueWARP: 7.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 0.8 | Overall Rank: 164
Pierce's TrueWARP is coasting along on fumes at this point, as his rating is almost entirely made up by his forecast: He ranked second at the position in the summer version of this series. At 36 years old, it's highly likely that Pierce's 2014-15 forecast will be marked by pessimism. The Nets' dysfunction makes it hard to read just how Pierce has skidded to a career-worst 13.5 PER. However, it's troubling that even as Brooklyn has picked up its pace as a team, Pierce's production continues to flounder.
Parsons
7. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
TrueWARP: 7.0 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.0 | Overall Rank: 40
Parsons is one of the better glue players in the NBA. He has a full range of skills, ranging from perimeter defense to playmaking to long-range shooting. He can swing between both forward positions, and is a vocal leader in the locker room. He also just keeps getting better. Parsons is one of the biggest values to emerge out of the second round in the past decade.
Iguodala
8. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
TrueWARP: 6.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.8 | Overall Rank: 89
Iguodala has proven to be a perfect fit with the Warriors. It's no surprise. The dominant trait of Golden State's perimeter players was their elite ability to shoot from the outside. That's the weak part of Iguodala's game, but he does everything else well, and has graciously accepted his status as a complementary player. Iguodala's shortcoming used to be a propensity for holding the ball, but that's not an issue with the Warriors. Now he just finishes when needed, and his true shooting percentage has soared to .640. It's no coincidence that Golden State is 19-7 with Iggy in the lineup.
Ariza
9. Trevor Ariza, Washington Wizards
TrueWARP: 6.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.3 | Overall Rank: 38
Perhaps motivated by the sterling play of reserve Martell Webster and the drafting of fellow wing Otto Porter, Ariza has responded with arguably his finest season. His PER (16.3) is a career best, as is his true shooting percentage (.576). The strength of Washington's mediocre defense is forcing turnovers, especially live-ball miscues off steals that lead to John Wall pushing down the floor in transition. Ariza's ability to play the passing lanes is a big part of that formula.
Smith
10. J.R. Smith, New York Knicks
TrueWARP: 5.2 | 2013-14 WARP: -0.1 | Overall Rank: 293
That's not a misprint -- the frequency with which the Knicks use small lineups has resulted in Smith playing more 3 this season than 2. His best position may be a 6 -- as in not in the game. Smith has shot the ball almost impossibly bad this season. We don't quote raw field goal percentage that often, but when a scorer is shooting 34.8 percent, that tells you all you need to know. It's not getting better, either, as Smith is shooting 31.3 percent in four January games. He still ekes into the top 10 because of the credit he gets for his career baseline, one that's not going to look pretty for next season if things don't turn around.
Next five: Tyreke Evans, New Orleans Pelicans; Luol Deng, Cleveland Cavaliers; Matt Barnes, Los Angeles Clippers; Shawn Marion, Dallas Mavericks; Martell Webster, Washington Wizards.
Deng is often lauded for his intangibles, and he should be. It's impossible to quantify things like locker room chemistry or a player leading by example, but we know these things matter. In what has reportedly been a soap opera-ish Cavaliers locker room this season, the addition of Deng to fill the roster spot of Andrew Bynum could pay exponential dividends on the cohesiveness of the Cleveland roster from top to bottom. His production is pretty good, too, as his 17.4 PER is the best it's been in six years.
Also notable: Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings; Jordan Hamilton, Denver Nuggets; Arron Afflalo, Orlando Magic.
Why did the Raptors want to unload Gay? There are a lot of reasons, but consider that this season, his 0.9 WARP ranks 155th in the NBA, and he's making $17.9 million. That's not a combination of categories you want on your roster. The athletic Hamilton is once again providing the kind of big per-minute production that demands to be examined in a larger regular role. To be fair, Nuggets coach Brian Shaw has nearly doubled Hamilton's court time over last season, but he's still better than players getting a bigger chunk of playing time. For his career, Hamilton, 23, is shooting a league-average rate from deep, and is averaging 16.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per 36 minutes.
i never witness sportscenter say lebron dominated off of 15 pts, you're saying anything
