- May 30, 2006
- 25,384
- 13,416
Danks was also north of 5.0 fWar in '08... So he's right at 10 over the last three... He's rock solid mid-rotation guy... Not a bad deal at all.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
- May 30, 2006
- 25,384
- 13,416
Danks was also north of 5.0 fWar in '08... So he's right at 10 over the last three... He's rock solid mid-rotation guy... Not a bad deal at all.
Originally Posted by Stringer Bell 32
Originally Posted by Proshares
John Danks got a five-year, $65 million extension with the CWS.
They wanted the world for that kid.
Since 2008 he's accured 15.6 fWAR which is ninth best over that time period for AL starters.
Oh don't get me wrong String, I think he's a good pitcher. But worth a top hitting + a top pitching prospect? I don't think so.
A's robbed the Nationals blind
Originally Posted by Stringer Bell 32
Originally Posted by Proshares
John Danks got a five-year, $65 million extension with the CWS.
They wanted the world for that kid.
Since 2008 he's accured 15.6 fWAR which is ninth best over that time period for AL starters.
Oh don't get me wrong String, I think he's a good pitcher. But worth a top hitting + a top pitching prospect? I don't think so.
A's robbed the Nationals blind
- Jan 8, 2005
- 17,144
- 1,167
Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN
- Jan 8, 2005
- 17,144
- 1,167
Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,131
- 9,289
I think its a great signing for the Cards. The fact that you guys have so many outfielders (when you get healthy) should help Beltran stay healthy by not having to play him every day. I know you lost Pujols, but your team should easily win the division.
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,131
- 9,289
I think its a great signing for the Cards. The fact that you guys have so many outfielders (when you get healthy) should help Beltran stay healthy by not having to play him every day. I know you lost Pujols, but your team should easily win the division.
Rumors.
http://[h3]What's next for Oakland?[/h3]
11:36AM ET
[h5]Oakland Athletics [/h5]
The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics have now traded forty percent of their 2011 starting rotation in http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30054/trevor-cahillTrevor Cahill and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalezGio Gonzalez. They may not be done.
General manager Billy Beane has acquired key pieces including right-handers http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29806/jarrod-parkerJarrod Parker, Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole, as well as a future catcher in Derek Norris ... which brings us to the possibility that closer http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30096/andrew-baileyAndrew Bailey may not be the only significant piece still available.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney speculated Friday that http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28802/kurt-suzukiKurt Suzuki could also be a part of the franchise's fire sale.
The 28-year-old Suzuki's production has been trending south the past three years, but he's still a proven starting catcher -- one of the more rare commodities in baseball -- and he's under contract through 2013 at a reasonable $12.1 million (with a club option for 2014).
Bailey, meanwhile, has been linked to the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels and all three of the Athletics' division rivals.
While the A's have brought in starting pitchers and a catcher so far, they still haven't done much to address their holes in the outfield and third base, which were considered top priorities by Beane heading into the offseason.
- Jason Catania
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
A's get frontline arm for Gio
http://[h3]Will Prince's price plummet?[/h3]
11:21AM ET
[h5]Prince Fielder | Brewers | Interested: Mariners?, Cubs? [/h5]
And then there was one.
With Carlos Beltran's agreement in place to play for the St. Louis Cardinals, Prince Fielder is now all by his lonesome as the last remaining big-time impact bat.
At least a half-dozen clubs have shown interest so far in what has been a long, drawn-out process -- intentionally so, given agent Scott Boras' reputation. FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal tweeted that he wouldn't be surprised if Boras was shooting for a deal for Fielder with an average annual salary of $25.5 million. In other words, just north of what Albert Pujols is getting on average (10 years, $254 million) from the Los Angeles Angels. But the teams in play for Fielder appear to be hesitant to offer such a large amount or come close to the 10-year deal he's apparently seeking.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported Wednesday morning the Fielder Derby is heating up and the Mariners, Nationals and Orioles are among about six teams eyeing the first baseman. The Cubs, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins and Brewers also have been mentioned as possibilities, though there are also reports that the Cubs are not players.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney mentioned via Twitter Wednesday that it appears the teams after Fielder are all in the same boat for the moment -- hoping the price tag will drop before loading up their shopping cart. Still, as Olney qualifies, it only takes one team to make a big offer. In this case, that's still nearly a given, considering that Boras is known for getting every last dollar for his clients.
Heyman tweeted Tuesday that the Seattle Mariners have made an offer, adding that the M's want to sign Fielder, but there are limits as to what they would pay.
Same goes for the Baltimore Orioles, according to Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com.
The Chicago Cubs -- if they're even in the mix -- are taking the same cautious approach. Buster Olney tweeted they've done some background work on Fielder, and they would like him, but again, only on their terms.
History says never to count out Boras, and all we have to do is look back a year ago when http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4262/jayson-werthhttp://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4262/jayson-werthJayson Werth, a player not in same offensive ballpark as Fielder, landed a $126 million deal in Washington.
Boras also does not use the holidays as a bench mark for reaching a deal. A few years ago, he waited until January before reaching a mega deal for Carlos Beltran with the New York Mets.
Olney has more on Fielder in Thursday's blog and in this video:
- Jason Catania
[h5]Matt Meyers[/h5]
The Nats should strike big
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Pricing Prince
http://[h3]Indians after Swisher?[/h3]
11:08AM ET
[h5]Nick Swisher | Yankees [/h5]
The Cleveland Indians have been targeting help in the outfield and at first base all offseason, but the only return they have to show for their efforts so far is bringing back Grady Sizemore. After missing out on Josh Willingham and Michael Cuddyer, could the club be making a push to trade for Nick Swisher?
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported Thursday that Cleveland is one of several clubs who have checked in on the availability of the Yankees' switch-hitting right fielder.
GM Brian Cashman, though, doesn't seem all that interested in moving the 31-year-old who sports a career .360 OBP and has notched 20-plus homers for seven straight seasons. The Yanks picked up Swisher's 2012 option for $10.25 million earlier in the offseason.
Another reason Swisher would be hard to get? The Yanks lack any serviceable backup or major-league ready outfield prospects. They have been linked to Cuban star Yoenis Cespedes, but with the team up against its reported payroll limit, it seems unlikely they would be able to afford the $30 million (or more) it could take to land Cespedes.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Details on Wood-for-Marshall deal[/h3]
10:53AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
We're still awaiting official word on the the trade between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds that will send lefty reliever http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6489/sean-marshallSean Marshall to Cincinnati for left-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30515/travis-woodTravis Wood and two minor leaguers, but we now know the identities of the prospects.
Thanks to ESPN Insider Keith Law, the two players are outfielder Dave Sappelt and infielder Ronald Torreyes. Sappelt, 24, hit .243 in his first 38 games as a big-leaguer in 2011 and profiles as a solid defender who can handle all three outfield spots, making him a good fit as a fourth outfielder. Torreyes is just 19 and all of 5'9", 140, but the second-base prospect owns a career .364 average through his first two pro seasons. Neither player projects to be a star, but they're also not throwaways, either.
The deal was initially reported by Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.
The 29-year-old Marshall went 6-6 with 2.20 ERA and had 34 holds, tied for second in the majors among left-handed relievers. The loss of Marshall means http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30388/john-gaubJohn Gaub, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30592/james-russellJames Russell and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30952/scott-maineScott Maine will have an opportunity to move up as a primary setup man from the left side.
Reds GM Walt Jocketty made bullpen help a priority after acquiring http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30196/mat-latosMat Latos in a deal with the San Diego Padres last week. Marshall could make it easier for the Reds to move http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30442/aroldis-chapmanAroldis Chapman into the rotation.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Who's in on Saunders?[/h3]
10:33AM ET
[h5]Joe Saunders | Diamondbacks [/h5]
While he won't return to Arizona, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Saunders has options.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweeted Friday that the Miami Marlins should be added to the list of teams (below) that are considering Saunders.
The 30-year-old lefty has already been linked to the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds, and he may be a fit for the Detroit Tigers now that they missed out on Gio Gonzalez. The Washington Nationals could also have interest, as could the Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres.
Saunders was rumored to have been in talks with the D-Backs on a two-year deal before the club non-tendered him. His deal could influence the market for right-handers Edwin Jackson and Rich Harden and fellow lefties Jeff Francis and Paul Maholm.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Rizzo fits with Rays, Cubs[/h3]
10:24AM ET
[h5]Anthony Rizzo | Padres [/h5]
After acquiring http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30016/yonder-alonsoYonder Alonso in the trade that sent right-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30196/mat-latosMat Latos to the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-redsCincinnati Reds last week, the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sd/san-diego-padresSan Diego Padres could shop first base prospect http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30782/anthony-rizzoAnthony Rizzo to help the club fill other holes, perhaps in the starting pitching department.
Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune chatted about the best fits for Rizzo. His take? The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs are the most interested parties.
Neither of those clubs have a long-term solution at first base, so Rizzo makes sense as a nearly-ready elite prospect. As Dan Hayes of the North County Times reported, the Rays could offer http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28957/wade-davisWade Davis as part of a package.
Meanwhile, the Cubs may not have a young, cheap starter to match Davis' upside, but they do have some young talent, including centerfielder Brett Jackson. And if the Padres were interested in Matt Garza, that could be a match, too. Remember the Cubs' new front office knows Rizzo well.
Other potentially interested clubs could include the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/wsh/washington-nationalsWashington Nationals, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-piratesPittsburgh Pirates, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewersMilwaukee Brewers and http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-indiansCleveland Indians.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Mariners like Francis[/h3]
10:09AM ET
[h5]Jeff Francis | Royals [/h5]
There's been plenty of speculation about the Seattle Mariners getting involved in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, but word also has it that Jeff Francis is on their radar, too.
The M's like Francis, a 30-year-old southpaw who posted a 4.82 ERA for the Kansas City Royals last year, as a veteran presence in their rotation who can keep a spot warm until their key pitching prospects are ready to contribute, Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported.
Seattle's projected starting five as of right now includes Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Jason Vargas, Blake Beavan and Charlie Furbush. The team does have three high-ceiling arms on the way, though, in right-hander Taijuan Walker and lefties James Paxton and Danny Hultzen, who was the No. 2 overall pick in last June's draft.
Walker is a few years out, but Paxton could make his debut by mid-2012, and there has been speculation that Hultzen could make the team out of camp. Bringing in a vet like Francis, though, would allow the Mariners to exercise a little more patience with their prized pitching prospects.
Other teams that have been linked to Francis include the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Boston's plan of (in)action[/h3]
9:35AM ET
[h5]Boston Red Sox [/h5]
The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-soxBoston Red Sox were in on http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalezGio Gonzalez before the Washington Nationals acquired the left-hander from the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics Thursday. The Sox still have needs -- starting pitching and closer among them -- so where do they turn now?
In terms of rotation help, right-handers http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5842/edwin-jacksonEdwin Jackson and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4575/roy-oswaltRoy Oswalt, and lefty http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6383/joe-saundersJoe Saunders, head the free-agent crop. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5588/rich-hardenRich Harden was a target of the club last summer and also sits on the open market.
With http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28508/john-danksJohn Danks signed long term in Chicago, the White Sox could use right-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5922/gavin-floydGavin Floyd as bait to acquire more pieces and the Red Sox could be a fit.
Whether or not http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28528/matt-garzaMatt Garza is a player the Sox may chase remains to be seen, but the Cubs appear willing to discuss the right-hander. The Rays have been rumored to be open to moving http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6243/jeff-niemannJeff Niemann or http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28957/wade-davisWade Davis -- and perhaps http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28474/james-shieldsJames Shields under the right circumstances -- but whether they'd deal with a division rival is unclear.
As for a back-of-the-bullpen arm, the Sox are rumored to be after everyone from the A's Andrew Bailey to the Seattle Mariners' Brandon League to even Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals.
Judging by how GM Ben Cherington has approached this offseason so far, and reading between the lines a bit, it seems that Boston is more interested in trading for upgrades rather than spending more money on free agents -- especially with the news that they and the New York Yankees are the only two MLB teams who were hit with a luxury tax bill.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Fallout from Beltran to Cards[/h3]
9:18AM ET
[h5]Carlos Beltran | Cardinals [/h5]
The second-best available free agent bat came off the market when Carlos Beltran agreed to terms with the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday night.
Beltran's deal is reportedly worth $26 million over 2 years, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.
Getting Beltran should help compensate for some of the middle-of-the-lineup production the Cards lost when Albert Pujols bolted for the Los Angeles Angels. Even though he's aging (34) and still battles occasional knee issues, Beltran is coming off a very productive 2011, when he batted .300 with 22 home runs, 84 RBIs and a .385 OBP.
As for the impact this has on St. Louis' depth chart? We'd expect Beltran to be the regular right fielder, with Lance Berkman moving to first base to cover Pujols' former spot. That leaves postseason hero Allen Craig, who is likely to miss the first month of 2012 while recovering from offseason knee surgery, to handle a backup role at the outfield corners and possibly first base. Given that both Beltran and Berkman aren't exactly bastions of health, Craig will be used to rest those two often.
With Beltran gone, the only big bat remaining in free agency is Prince Fielder, which is just the way agent Scott Boras likes to operate. There's now no fallback option if a team misses out on Fielder, so the 27-year-old lefty slugger just picked up a little more leverage in his quest for a gigantic contract that could potentially be worth upward of $200 million over 8-10 years.
ESPN Insider Jim Bowden called Beltran the No. 1 most undervalued remaining free agent in his GM's office column last week:
- Jason Catania
[h5] [/h5]
Nationals move ahead of schedule.
A's add top prospects.
Bernie in the Hall.
New parks, new numbers.
The great Yu Darvish myth.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Bailey's trade market[/h3]
12:47PM ET
[h5]Andrew Bailey | Athletics [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics have already dealt starting pitcher Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, but closer Andrew Bailey is still an employee in the East Bay. That may not last for long, so let's summarize bailey's trade market.
We've heard reports that the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels have interest in Bailey, as well as the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners. The Cincinnati Reds have a need at closer and could see Bailey as an alternative to Francisco Cordero.
The Red Sox appear to be out of payroll space, so a trade for a closer, especially one under club control like Bailey, seems more likely than signing Ryan Madson or Cordero.
The Nationals, who landed Gonzalez Thursday, could still use Drew Storen as trade bait to land a centerfielder, and in that case could find themselves in the market for Madson or Bailey.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Cespedes update[/h3]
12:35PM ET
[h5]Yoenis Cespedes [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
[h5]Clubs linked to Cespedes[/h5]
Yoenis Cespedes has finally established residency in the Dominican Republic and could be granted free agency any day, which could spur a bidding war between a a number of interested clubs.
Kevin Goldstein tweets that the New York Yankees are "BIG" on the outfielder, which could make for a domino effect, as the club has three starting outfielders in Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.
Gardner or Swisher could be traded, or used in multiple roles in the outfield and the designated hitter spot.
After losing out on Yu Darvish, the Jays may step up their efforts toward other pitching options, which could put them on the outside looking in on Cespedes.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Prince could follow Gio[/h3]
11:59AM ET
[h5]Washington Nationals [/h5]
Now that the Washington Nationals have landed their top priority this offseason -- a front-end lefty starting pitcher -- in getting Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland Athletics, they're done making big moves, right?
Not necessarily. As Scott Miller of CBSSports.com reported Thursday, there could be room for Prince Fielder in D.C.
The Washington Post's Dave Sheinin echoed that sentiment, noting that getting Gonzalez didn't cost the club much in salary, so it shouldn't eliminate them from the Fielder sweepstakes.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney has much more on the impact of the Nationals' acquisition of Gonzalez -- and what it might mean for a certain lefty-slugging first baseman -- in Friday's column:
- Jason Catania
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Gio's got stuff
[h5]Matt Meyers[/h5]
Nats need to go all-in
12:47PM ET
[h5]Andrew Bailey | Athletics [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics have already dealt starting pitcher Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, but closer Andrew Bailey is still an employee in the East Bay. That may not last for long, so let's summarize bailey's trade market.
We've heard reports that the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels have interest in Bailey, as well as the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners. The Cincinnati Reds have a need at closer and could see Bailey as an alternative to Francisco Cordero.
The Red Sox appear to be out of payroll space, so a trade for a closer, especially one under club control like Bailey, seems more likely than signing Ryan Madson or Cordero.
The Nationals, who landed Gonzalez Thursday, could still use Drew Storen as trade bait to land a centerfielder, and in that case could find themselves in the market for Madson or Bailey.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Cespedes update[/h3]
12:35PM ET
[h5]Yoenis Cespedes [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
[h5]Clubs linked to Cespedes[/h5]
- Miami Marlins
- Washington Nationals
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Cleveland Indians
- New York Yankees
- Oakland Athletics
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Detroit Tigers
- Chicago Cubs
- Boston Red Sox
- Baltimore Orioles
- Toronto Blue Jays
Yoenis Cespedes has finally established residency in the Dominican Republic and could be granted free agency any day, which could spur a bidding war between a a number of interested clubs.
Kevin Goldstein tweets that the New York Yankees are "BIG" on the outfielder, which could make for a domino effect, as the club has three starting outfielders in Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.
Gardner or Swisher could be traded, or used in multiple roles in the outfield and the designated hitter spot.
After losing out on Yu Darvish, the Jays may step up their efforts toward other pitching options, which could put them on the outside looking in on Cespedes.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Prince could follow Gio[/h3]
11:59AM ET
[h5]Washington Nationals [/h5]
Now that the Washington Nationals have landed their top priority this offseason -- a front-end lefty starting pitcher -- in getting Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland Athletics, they're done making big moves, right?
Not necessarily. As Scott Miller of CBSSports.com reported Thursday, there could be room for Prince Fielder in D.C.
The Washington Post's Dave Sheinin echoed that sentiment, noting that getting Gonzalez didn't cost the club much in salary, so it shouldn't eliminate them from the Fielder sweepstakes.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney has much more on the impact of the Nationals' acquisition of Gonzalez -- and what it might mean for a certain lefty-slugging first baseman -- in Friday's column:
- Jason Catania
Gio's got stuff
Nats need to go all-in
11:36AM ET
[h5]Oakland Athletics [/h5]
The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics have now traded forty percent of their 2011 starting rotation in http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30054/trevor-cahillTrevor Cahill and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalezGio Gonzalez. They may not be done.
General manager Billy Beane has acquired key pieces including right-handers http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29806/jarrod-parkerJarrod Parker, Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole, as well as a future catcher in Derek Norris ... which brings us to the possibility that closer http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30096/andrew-baileyAndrew Bailey may not be the only significant piece still available.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney speculated Friday that http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28802/kurt-suzukiKurt Suzuki could also be a part of the franchise's fire sale.
The 28-year-old Suzuki's production has been trending south the past three years, but he's still a proven starting catcher -- one of the more rare commodities in baseball -- and he's under contract through 2013 at a reasonable $12.1 million (with a club option for 2014).
Bailey, meanwhile, has been linked to the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels and all three of the Athletics' division rivals.
While the A's have brought in starting pitchers and a catcher so far, they still haven't done much to address their holes in the outfield and third base, which were considered top priorities by Beane heading into the offseason.
- Jason Catania
A's get frontline arm for Gio
http://[h3]Will Prince's price plummet?[/h3]
11:21AM ET
[h5]Prince Fielder | Brewers | Interested: Mariners?, Cubs? [/h5]
And then there was one.
With Carlos Beltran's agreement in place to play for the St. Louis Cardinals, Prince Fielder is now all by his lonesome as the last remaining big-time impact bat.
At least a half-dozen clubs have shown interest so far in what has been a long, drawn-out process -- intentionally so, given agent Scott Boras' reputation. FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal tweeted that he wouldn't be surprised if Boras was shooting for a deal for Fielder with an average annual salary of $25.5 million. In other words, just north of what Albert Pujols is getting on average (10 years, $254 million) from the Los Angeles Angels. But the teams in play for Fielder appear to be hesitant to offer such a large amount or come close to the 10-year deal he's apparently seeking.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported Wednesday morning the Fielder Derby is heating up and the Mariners, Nationals and Orioles are among about six teams eyeing the first baseman. The Cubs, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins and Brewers also have been mentioned as possibilities, though there are also reports that the Cubs are not players.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney mentioned via Twitter Wednesday that it appears the teams after Fielder are all in the same boat for the moment -- hoping the price tag will drop before loading up their shopping cart. Still, as Olney qualifies, it only takes one team to make a big offer. In this case, that's still nearly a given, considering that Boras is known for getting every last dollar for his clients.
Heyman tweeted Tuesday that the Seattle Mariners have made an offer, adding that the M's want to sign Fielder, but there are limits as to what they would pay.
Same goes for the Baltimore Orioles, according to Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com.
The Chicago Cubs -- if they're even in the mix -- are taking the same cautious approach. Buster Olney tweeted they've done some background work on Fielder, and they would like him, but again, only on their terms.
History says never to count out Boras, and all we have to do is look back a year ago when http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4262/jayson-werthhttp://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4262/jayson-werthJayson Werth, a player not in same offensive ballpark as Fielder, landed a $126 million deal in Washington.
Boras also does not use the holidays as a bench mark for reaching a deal. A few years ago, he waited until January before reaching a mega deal for Carlos Beltran with the New York Mets.
Olney has more on Fielder in Thursday's blog and in this video:
- Jason Catania
The Nats should strike big
Pricing Prince
http://[h3]Indians after Swisher?[/h3]
11:08AM ET
[h5]Nick Swisher | Yankees [/h5]
The Cleveland Indians have been targeting help in the outfield and at first base all offseason, but the only return they have to show for their efforts so far is bringing back Grady Sizemore. After missing out on Josh Willingham and Michael Cuddyer, could the club be making a push to trade for Nick Swisher?
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported Thursday that Cleveland is one of several clubs who have checked in on the availability of the Yankees' switch-hitting right fielder.
GM Brian Cashman, though, doesn't seem all that interested in moving the 31-year-old who sports a career .360 OBP and has notched 20-plus homers for seven straight seasons. The Yanks picked up Swisher's 2012 option for $10.25 million earlier in the offseason.
Another reason Swisher would be hard to get? The Yanks lack any serviceable backup or major-league ready outfield prospects. They have been linked to Cuban star Yoenis Cespedes, but with the team up against its reported payroll limit, it seems unlikely they would be able to afford the $30 million (or more) it could take to land Cespedes.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Details on Wood-for-Marshall deal[/h3]
10:53AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
We're still awaiting official word on the the trade between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds that will send lefty reliever http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6489/sean-marshallSean Marshall to Cincinnati for left-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30515/travis-woodTravis Wood and two minor leaguers, but we now know the identities of the prospects.
Thanks to ESPN Insider Keith Law, the two players are outfielder Dave Sappelt and infielder Ronald Torreyes. Sappelt, 24, hit .243 in his first 38 games as a big-leaguer in 2011 and profiles as a solid defender who can handle all three outfield spots, making him a good fit as a fourth outfielder. Torreyes is just 19 and all of 5'9", 140, but the second-base prospect owns a career .364 average through his first two pro seasons. Neither player projects to be a star, but they're also not throwaways, either.
The deal was initially reported by Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.
The 29-year-old Marshall went 6-6 with 2.20 ERA and had 34 holds, tied for second in the majors among left-handed relievers. The loss of Marshall means http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30388/john-gaubJohn Gaub, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30592/james-russellJames Russell and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30952/scott-maineScott Maine will have an opportunity to move up as a primary setup man from the left side.
Reds GM Walt Jocketty made bullpen help a priority after acquiring http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30196/mat-latosMat Latos in a deal with the San Diego Padres last week. Marshall could make it easier for the Reds to move http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30442/aroldis-chapmanAroldis Chapman into the rotation.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Who's in on Saunders?[/h3]
10:33AM ET
[h5]Joe Saunders | Diamondbacks [/h5]
While he won't return to Arizona, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Saunders has options.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweeted Friday that the Miami Marlins should be added to the list of teams (below) that are considering Saunders.
The 30-year-old lefty has already been linked to the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds, and he may be a fit for the Detroit Tigers now that they missed out on Gio Gonzalez. The Washington Nationals could also have interest, as could the Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres.
Saunders was rumored to have been in talks with the D-Backs on a two-year deal before the club non-tendered him. His deal could influence the market for right-handers Edwin Jackson and Rich Harden and fellow lefties Jeff Francis and Paul Maholm.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Rizzo fits with Rays, Cubs[/h3]
10:24AM ET
[h5]Anthony Rizzo | Padres [/h5]
After acquiring http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30016/yonder-alonsoYonder Alonso in the trade that sent right-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30196/mat-latosMat Latos to the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-redsCincinnati Reds last week, the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sd/san-diego-padresSan Diego Padres could shop first base prospect http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30782/anthony-rizzoAnthony Rizzo to help the club fill other holes, perhaps in the starting pitching department.
Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune chatted about the best fits for Rizzo. His take? The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs are the most interested parties.
Neither of those clubs have a long-term solution at first base, so Rizzo makes sense as a nearly-ready elite prospect. As Dan Hayes of the North County Times reported, the Rays could offer http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28957/wade-davisWade Davis as part of a package.
Meanwhile, the Cubs may not have a young, cheap starter to match Davis' upside, but they do have some young talent, including centerfielder Brett Jackson. And if the Padres were interested in Matt Garza, that could be a match, too. Remember the Cubs' new front office knows Rizzo well.
Other potentially interested clubs could include the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/wsh/washington-nationalsWashington Nationals, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-piratesPittsburgh Pirates, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewersMilwaukee Brewers and http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-indiansCleveland Indians.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Mariners like Francis[/h3]
10:09AM ET
[h5]Jeff Francis | Royals [/h5]
There's been plenty of speculation about the Seattle Mariners getting involved in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, but word also has it that Jeff Francis is on their radar, too.
The M's like Francis, a 30-year-old southpaw who posted a 4.82 ERA for the Kansas City Royals last year, as a veteran presence in their rotation who can keep a spot warm until their key pitching prospects are ready to contribute, Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported.
Seattle's projected starting five as of right now includes Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Jason Vargas, Blake Beavan and Charlie Furbush. The team does have three high-ceiling arms on the way, though, in right-hander Taijuan Walker and lefties James Paxton and Danny Hultzen, who was the No. 2 overall pick in last June's draft.
Walker is a few years out, but Paxton could make his debut by mid-2012, and there has been speculation that Hultzen could make the team out of camp. Bringing in a vet like Francis, though, would allow the Mariners to exercise a little more patience with their prized pitching prospects.
Other teams that have been linked to Francis include the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Boston's plan of (in)action[/h3]
9:35AM ET
[h5]Boston Red Sox [/h5]
The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-soxBoston Red Sox were in on http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalezGio Gonzalez before the Washington Nationals acquired the left-hander from the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics Thursday. The Sox still have needs -- starting pitching and closer among them -- so where do they turn now?
In terms of rotation help, right-handers http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5842/edwin-jacksonEdwin Jackson and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4575/roy-oswaltRoy Oswalt, and lefty http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6383/joe-saundersJoe Saunders, head the free-agent crop. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5588/rich-hardenRich Harden was a target of the club last summer and also sits on the open market.
With http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28508/john-danksJohn Danks signed long term in Chicago, the White Sox could use right-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5922/gavin-floydGavin Floyd as bait to acquire more pieces and the Red Sox could be a fit.
Whether or not http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28528/matt-garzaMatt Garza is a player the Sox may chase remains to be seen, but the Cubs appear willing to discuss the right-hander. The Rays have been rumored to be open to moving http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6243/jeff-niemannJeff Niemann or http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28957/wade-davisWade Davis -- and perhaps http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28474/james-shieldsJames Shields under the right circumstances -- but whether they'd deal with a division rival is unclear.
As for a back-of-the-bullpen arm, the Sox are rumored to be after everyone from the A's Andrew Bailey to the Seattle Mariners' Brandon League to even Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals.
Judging by how GM Ben Cherington has approached this offseason so far, and reading between the lines a bit, it seems that Boston is more interested in trading for upgrades rather than spending more money on free agents -- especially with the news that they and the New York Yankees are the only two MLB teams who were hit with a luxury tax bill.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Fallout from Beltran to Cards[/h3]
9:18AM ET
[h5]Carlos Beltran | Cardinals [/h5]
The second-best available free agent bat came off the market when Carlos Beltran agreed to terms with the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday night.
Beltran's deal is reportedly worth $26 million over 2 years, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.
Getting Beltran should help compensate for some of the middle-of-the-lineup production the Cards lost when Albert Pujols bolted for the Los Angeles Angels. Even though he's aging (34) and still battles occasional knee issues, Beltran is coming off a very productive 2011, when he batted .300 with 22 home runs, 84 RBIs and a .385 OBP.
As for the impact this has on St. Louis' depth chart? We'd expect Beltran to be the regular right fielder, with Lance Berkman moving to first base to cover Pujols' former spot. That leaves postseason hero Allen Craig, who is likely to miss the first month of 2012 while recovering from offseason knee surgery, to handle a backup role at the outfield corners and possibly first base. Given that both Beltran and Berkman aren't exactly bastions of health, Craig will be used to rest those two often.
With Beltran gone, the only big bat remaining in free agency is Prince Fielder, which is just the way agent Scott Boras likes to operate. There's now no fallback option if a team misses out on Fielder, so the 27-year-old lefty slugger just picked up a little more leverage in his quest for a gigantic contract that could potentially be worth upward of $200 million over 8-10 years.
ESPN Insider Jim Bowden called Beltran the No. 1 most undervalued remaining free agent in his GM's office column last week:
- Jason Catania
[h5] [/h5]
Nationals move ahead of schedule.
Spoiler [+]
Gio Gonzalez was out with family when his phone started blowing up Thursday afternoon. "It's been going crazy," he said. "I haven't heard anything, though."
[+] Enlarge
Greg Fiume/Getty ImagesMike Rizzo and Davey Johnson don't appear to be in the mood to wait.
Within minutes, he did get word of the deal, and, assuming that Gonzalez is able to pass his physical -- and part of the attraction of trading for the 26-year-old lefty is that he has a virtually pristine medical history -- he will join a rotation that already has Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg. Hitters will go into a series against Washington knowing they will be in for extremely difficult at-bats, facing guys with nasty stuff.
Gonzalez had some control problems last year, walking 91 in 202 innings for Oakland, but he limited the damage against him, holding opponents to a .336 slugging percentage -- seventh-best in the big leagues -- meaning few hitters were taking comfortable swings against him. And Gonzalez now shifts to the easier league, where he can work through some jams by taking advantage of the presence of the pitcher's spot in the lineup.
In Strasburg's 92 innings in the big leagues, opposing hitters have an OPS of .547. Against Zimmermann, hitters posted a .671 OPS. The Nationals might have some more growing to do, as Strasburg becomes more durable and increases his innings total and as Bryce Harper eventually ascends to the big leagues. But they already will be a dangerous team with Gonzalez anchoring their rotation.
They paid heavily for Gonzalez, according to rival scouts. Oakland never got deeply into talks with Cincinnati about Gonzalez, but the Athletics would not have traded the lefty to Cincinnati for the package the Reds gave up for Mat Latos; the A's feel as if they got more from the Nationals, especially after Washington agreed on Thursday morning to include Tom Milone and Brad Peacock in the deal. Peacock went 15-3 with a 2.39 ERA in 2011, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, and a talent evaluator who saw him in the summer said the right-hander reminded him of Brad Radke -- because of his command and because of his feel for pitching. In two years, the evaluator believes, it's possible that Peacock will be a better pitcher than Gonzalez.
A.J. Cole, 19, was drafted in the fourth round in 2010, and he had a good season in Class A, striking out 108 battings in 89 innings for Hagerstown. And Derek Norris, a 22-year-old catcher, who was drafted by Washington in the fourth round in 2007, had a .367 on-base percentage in Double-A this past year, with 20 homers.
You wonder whether the trade for Norris eventually will lead to the trade of Kurt Suzuki, who is signed through the 2013 season -- with an option for 2014 -- for a total of $12.1 million. Oakland is clearly loading up on players who will be around in 2014 and 2015, when the Athletics hope to be in a new ballpark in San Jose. Suzuki is 28 years old, and although he is coming off a year in which he hit .237, there will be interest in the veteran at a time when catching is scarce.
• The reaction in the Bay Area to the Oakland trade was strong, and angry, with frustrated fans asking when the Athletics will stop turning over players and start trying to win. It's evident from the actions of owner Lew Wolff and general manager Billy Beane that, with the current stadium situation, the Athletics can't win -- at least not until the club moves into a ballpark that will help generate more revenue and compete with the Angels and Rangers.
The Athletics are probably going to be awful in 2012 and may well lose more games than any other team in the majors, and some fans might not bother showing up anymore. But it's not as if they've been showing up anyway; even when Oakland won regularly a decade ago, the team drew little more than 2 million fans -- and the Athletics haven't hit 2 million in attendance since 2005.
The migration of Oakland starters continued, writes Susan Slusser. The trade for Gonzalez will renew speculation that the Nationals are in position to make a hard run at Prince Fielder, Dave Sheinin writes within this story -- the reason being that Washington is spending relative pennies on its rotation.
[h3]The Beltran deal[/h3]
• The Cardinals wrapped up their negotiations with Carlos Beltran, who is being projected as a No. 2 hitter for St. Louis. The Indians were among the teams Beltran turned down.
Warning: A small sample alert. In his career, Carlos Beltran has hit .340, with a 1.088 OPS, at the new Busch Stadium, with eight extra-base hits in 54 plate appearances.
From Justin Havens, Katie Sharp and Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Information, some stuff on Beltran:
Although he's no longer a borderline MVP candidate, Beltran's track record of productivity can be matched by few in the National League since 2005. Beltran ranks sixth in the NL among position players in WAR (wins above replacement) in that span. Consider his most wins above replacement ranking among NL position players since the start of the 2005 season:
Albert Pujols: 55.7
Chase Utley: 48.6
David Wright: 36.8
Matt Holliday: 35.2
Chipper Jones: 32.3
Carlos Beltran: 32.2
Besides his offensive and defensive skills, Beltran has a history of excelling in the postseason. No player in MLB history has a higher OPS in the postseason than Beltran (minimum 75 PA):
Carlos Beltran: 1.302
Babe Ruth: 1.211
Lou Gehrig: 1.208
Last season was the first since 2008 in which Beltran played at least 100 games. Although he has missed significant time in two of the past three seasons, Beltran, even at age 34, still has been a highly productive player when healthy. If you averaged him over a 162-game season, he'd bat .298 with a .8881 OPS, 22 HRs and 90 RBIs.
With Beltran joining the Cardinals, St. Louis has the two best offensive switch-hitters in the majors from last season in OPS:
Lance Berkman: .959
Carlos Beltran: .910
Jose Reyes: .877
Victor Martinez: .850
Shane Victorino: .847
Clearly, it would be aggressive to suggest that Beltran will fill the hole created by Albert Pujols' departure. However, when you look at how productive they were in 2011 alone, it's much closer than one might think. Beltran hit .300, Pujols .299. Beltran had a higher OBP (.385 to .366), was close in slugging (.525 to .541) and had a similar WAR (4.7 to 5.1).
According to reports, Beltran will play right field for the Cardinals until Allen Craig -- whose exact return date is up in the air after knee surgery -- returns and will shift to center to replace Jon Jay once Craig returns. Beltran represents a potentially huge upgrade on Craig and/or Jay. Beltran was one of the best defensive outfielders in the majors in his first three seasons with the Mets (2006-0
. His 44 defensive runs saved were the second most among all outfielders. Since then, though, he has been just about league average.
Playing in right field for the first time in his career last season, Beltran struggled on routine balls hit into his "fielding zone". He converted just 90.6 percent of balls hit into his zone into outs. Among 29 right fielders who played at least 500 innings last year, that ranked 22nd.
• We have a reasonable sample of completed $100 million contracts to compare to Beltran's now-completed $100 million contract. Not only does Beltran look pretty good relative to the contract he signed but he also comes out looking quite strong relative to other $100 million contracts. We know how much each player was paid in the course of the contract, and we know the wins above replacement each player accumulated in the same span. Consequently, we can figure out how many dollars-per-win each player cost during the contract and, thus, which contracts provided the best and worst value. Note: If a player was traded midcontract, the original value of the contract remained intact for this analysis.
[h4]One Hundred Million Club[/h4]
Dollars spent per win above replacement in completed $100 million contracts, through 2011:
[th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Contract[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][th=""]$/WAR[/th]
• As you can see, Beltran's return on investment ranks as the third best fully completed $100M-plus contract, behind only the steal the St. Louis Cardinals got on Pujols' deal and Alex Rodriguez's record-breaking (at the time) contract.
• Beltran is the third high-profile corner outfielder free agent to come off the board, following Josh Willingham's signing with Minnesota and Michael Cuddyer's leaving the Twins to sign with Colorado. Despite Beltran being both the oldest and considered to be the least durable, his average annual value exceeds that of the contracts received by his counterparts. Cuddyer got $10.5M a year, Willingham $7M per year.
[+] Enlarge
Greg Fiume/Getty ImagesMike Rizzo and Davey Johnson don't appear to be in the mood to wait.
Within minutes, he did get word of the deal, and, assuming that Gonzalez is able to pass his physical -- and part of the attraction of trading for the 26-year-old lefty is that he has a virtually pristine medical history -- he will join a rotation that already has Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg. Hitters will go into a series against Washington knowing they will be in for extremely difficult at-bats, facing guys with nasty stuff.
Gonzalez had some control problems last year, walking 91 in 202 innings for Oakland, but he limited the damage against him, holding opponents to a .336 slugging percentage -- seventh-best in the big leagues -- meaning few hitters were taking comfortable swings against him. And Gonzalez now shifts to the easier league, where he can work through some jams by taking advantage of the presence of the pitcher's spot in the lineup.
In Strasburg's 92 innings in the big leagues, opposing hitters have an OPS of .547. Against Zimmermann, hitters posted a .671 OPS. The Nationals might have some more growing to do, as Strasburg becomes more durable and increases his innings total and as Bryce Harper eventually ascends to the big leagues. But they already will be a dangerous team with Gonzalez anchoring their rotation.
They paid heavily for Gonzalez, according to rival scouts. Oakland never got deeply into talks with Cincinnati about Gonzalez, but the Athletics would not have traded the lefty to Cincinnati for the package the Reds gave up for Mat Latos; the A's feel as if they got more from the Nationals, especially after Washington agreed on Thursday morning to include Tom Milone and Brad Peacock in the deal. Peacock went 15-3 with a 2.39 ERA in 2011, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, and a talent evaluator who saw him in the summer said the right-hander reminded him of Brad Radke -- because of his command and because of his feel for pitching. In two years, the evaluator believes, it's possible that Peacock will be a better pitcher than Gonzalez.
A.J. Cole, 19, was drafted in the fourth round in 2010, and he had a good season in Class A, striking out 108 battings in 89 innings for Hagerstown. And Derek Norris, a 22-year-old catcher, who was drafted by Washington in the fourth round in 2007, had a .367 on-base percentage in Double-A this past year, with 20 homers.
You wonder whether the trade for Norris eventually will lead to the trade of Kurt Suzuki, who is signed through the 2013 season -- with an option for 2014 -- for a total of $12.1 million. Oakland is clearly loading up on players who will be around in 2014 and 2015, when the Athletics hope to be in a new ballpark in San Jose. Suzuki is 28 years old, and although he is coming off a year in which he hit .237, there will be interest in the veteran at a time when catching is scarce.
• The reaction in the Bay Area to the Oakland trade was strong, and angry, with frustrated fans asking when the Athletics will stop turning over players and start trying to win. It's evident from the actions of owner Lew Wolff and general manager Billy Beane that, with the current stadium situation, the Athletics can't win -- at least not until the club moves into a ballpark that will help generate more revenue and compete with the Angels and Rangers.
The Athletics are probably going to be awful in 2012 and may well lose more games than any other team in the majors, and some fans might not bother showing up anymore. But it's not as if they've been showing up anyway; even when Oakland won regularly a decade ago, the team drew little more than 2 million fans -- and the Athletics haven't hit 2 million in attendance since 2005.
The migration of Oakland starters continued, writes Susan Slusser. The trade for Gonzalez will renew speculation that the Nationals are in position to make a hard run at Prince Fielder, Dave Sheinin writes within this story -- the reason being that Washington is spending relative pennies on its rotation.
[h3]The Beltran deal[/h3]
• The Cardinals wrapped up their negotiations with Carlos Beltran, who is being projected as a No. 2 hitter for St. Louis. The Indians were among the teams Beltran turned down.
Warning: A small sample alert. In his career, Carlos Beltran has hit .340, with a 1.088 OPS, at the new Busch Stadium, with eight extra-base hits in 54 plate appearances.
From Justin Havens, Katie Sharp and Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Information, some stuff on Beltran:
Although he's no longer a borderline MVP candidate, Beltran's track record of productivity can be matched by few in the National League since 2005. Beltran ranks sixth in the NL among position players in WAR (wins above replacement) in that span. Consider his most wins above replacement ranking among NL position players since the start of the 2005 season:
Albert Pujols: 55.7
Chase Utley: 48.6
David Wright: 36.8
Matt Holliday: 35.2
Chipper Jones: 32.3
Carlos Beltran: 32.2
Besides his offensive and defensive skills, Beltran has a history of excelling in the postseason. No player in MLB history has a higher OPS in the postseason than Beltran (minimum 75 PA):
Carlos Beltran: 1.302
Babe Ruth: 1.211
Lou Gehrig: 1.208
Last season was the first since 2008 in which Beltran played at least 100 games. Although he has missed significant time in two of the past three seasons, Beltran, even at age 34, still has been a highly productive player when healthy. If you averaged him over a 162-game season, he'd bat .298 with a .8881 OPS, 22 HRs and 90 RBIs.
With Beltran joining the Cardinals, St. Louis has the two best offensive switch-hitters in the majors from last season in OPS:
Lance Berkman: .959
Carlos Beltran: .910
Jose Reyes: .877
Victor Martinez: .850
Shane Victorino: .847
Clearly, it would be aggressive to suggest that Beltran will fill the hole created by Albert Pujols' departure. However, when you look at how productive they were in 2011 alone, it's much closer than one might think. Beltran hit .300, Pujols .299. Beltran had a higher OBP (.385 to .366), was close in slugging (.525 to .541) and had a similar WAR (4.7 to 5.1).
According to reports, Beltran will play right field for the Cardinals until Allen Craig -- whose exact return date is up in the air after knee surgery -- returns and will shift to center to replace Jon Jay once Craig returns. Beltran represents a potentially huge upgrade on Craig and/or Jay. Beltran was one of the best defensive outfielders in the majors in his first three seasons with the Mets (2006-0
. His 44 defensive runs saved were the second most among all outfielders. Since then, though, he has been just about league average.Playing in right field for the first time in his career last season, Beltran struggled on routine balls hit into his "fielding zone". He converted just 90.6 percent of balls hit into his zone into outs. Among 29 right fielders who played at least 500 innings last year, that ranked 22nd.
• We have a reasonable sample of completed $100 million contracts to compare to Beltran's now-completed $100 million contract. Not only does Beltran look pretty good relative to the contract he signed but he also comes out looking quite strong relative to other $100 million contracts. We know how much each player was paid in the course of the contract, and we know the wins above replacement each player accumulated in the same span. Consequently, we can figure out how many dollars-per-win each player cost during the contract and, thus, which contracts provided the best and worst value. Note: If a player was traded midcontract, the original value of the contract remained intact for this analysis.
[h4]One Hundred Million Club[/h4]
Dollars spent per win above replacement in completed $100 million contracts, through 2011:
| Albert Pujols | 7-year/$100M | 59.0 | $1.70M |
| Alex Rodriguez | 10-year/$252M | 71.6 | $3.52M |
| Carlos Beltran | 7-year/$119M | 32.2 | $3.70M |
| Derek Jeter | 10-year/$189M | 48.0 | $3.94M |
| Kevin Brown | 7-year/$105M | 26.2 | $4.01M |
| Todd Helton | 9-year/$141.5M | 32.9 | $4.30M |
| Manny Ramirez | 8-year/$160M | 34.2 | $4.68M |
| Jason Giambi | 7-year/$120M | 21.9 | $5.48M |
| Ken Griffey, Jr | 9-year/$116.5M | 11.7 | $9.96M |
| Mike Hampton | 8-year/$121M | 10.7 | $11.31M |
• As you can see, Beltran's return on investment ranks as the third best fully completed $100M-plus contract, behind only the steal the St. Louis Cardinals got on Pujols' deal and Alex Rodriguez's record-breaking (at the time) contract.
• Beltran is the third high-profile corner outfielder free agent to come off the board, following Josh Willingham's signing with Minnesota and Michael Cuddyer's leaving the Twins to sign with Colorado. Despite Beltran being both the oldest and considered to be the least durable, his average annual value exceeds that of the contracts received by his counterparts. Cuddyer got $10.5M a year, Willingham $7M per year.
A's add top prospects.
Spoiler [+]
The Washington Nationals made it clear they want to try and win sooner rather than later by trading four prospects (right-handers Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole, left-hander Tom Milone and catcher Derek Norris) to the Oakland Athletics for left-hander Gio Gonzalez.
The Nationals get some starting rotation depth, but at a pretty significant cost in prospects, pinned to the hope that Gonzalez' moderate success these last two years wasn't just a function of him playing his home games in Oakland's pitcher-friendly park. The A's, on the other hand, get a substantial reward for taking in Gonzalez -- who struggled with two other organizations -- and building up his value beyond what I think it would have become in most other ballparks.
Washington has its ace in Stephen Strasburg and a near-ace behind him in Jordan Zimmermann, with some pitching coming up through its system to fill out the rotation in the coming years, so I'm not sure why they'd deal for Gonzalez at this point unless they believe he's a lot better than I think he is.
He has racked up strikeouts the last few years despite below-average command and control that have led to high walk totals, and would likely have led to higher ERAs but for a great ballpark and Oakland's generally strong defenses. The 26-year-old has always had questions about his on-field makeup, particularly his ability to respond to adversity on the mound, something that I'm told is still a concern with him going forward. What Gio does bring is stuff. He'll show you a grade-55 fastball, a big-breaking curveball, and a fringe-average changeup, but not the command to get maximum results from his repertoire. I did think if he was traded to the wrong environment, like Yankee Stadium, he had disaster potential, but in Washington he's more likely to maintain some value (say, 2-2.5 wins above replacement) while leaving the club frustrated that he's not better.
Oakland gets a future ace, a starting catcher, a strong reliever who might be a back-end starter, and an up-and-down arm. Cole is the prize here, a potential No. 1 starter who ranked 36th on my midseason top prospects update and was the No. 2 prospect in Washington's system behind Bryce Harper.
Cole is now Oakland's top prospect, sitting in the mid-90s with much better fastball command than he showed as an amateur. He acquired a reputation in high school for disinterest on the mound and fell to the fourth round of the 2010 draft, but he was a new man this year and many scouts felt in hindsight he should have gone in the first round. He's primarily fastball-slider now and needs to improve his changeup (and just use it more), as he had a big platoon split at low Class A Hagerstown. He turns 20 next month and is about two full years away from the majors.
Norris broke his wrist following the 2009 season and has struggled to hit for average the last two years, but his secondary skills remain intact and he has plenty of arm to add value on defense. The 22-year-old has a sound swing with good hip rotation for average or slightly better pull power, and his eye at the plate has always been outstanding. So even if he hits .240 in the majors, he'll be a valuable offensive catcher. Behind the dish, Norris is a fair receiver but has arm strength with sub-2.00 pop times (throwing to second base), so he should continue to control the running game as he has in the minors, nailing 41 percent of runners over the last four seasons.
Peacock, 23, is a 6-foot right-hander with a lot of effort in his delivery, but he brings the heat with above-average velocity as a starter that would be plus out of the pen. His curve and change are both fringy, and between the effort in his delivery and lack of plane on his fastball (making him fly ball-prone), I think he's best suited for the pen. Milone, 24, is a finesse lefty with a below-average fastball and no out pitch; he might survive as an emergency guy in a big ballpark like Oakland's, but they can and will do better for the back of their rotation.
The Nationals get some starting rotation depth, but at a pretty significant cost in prospects, pinned to the hope that Gonzalez' moderate success these last two years wasn't just a function of him playing his home games in Oakland's pitcher-friendly park. The A's, on the other hand, get a substantial reward for taking in Gonzalez -- who struggled with two other organizations -- and building up his value beyond what I think it would have become in most other ballparks.
Washington has its ace in Stephen Strasburg and a near-ace behind him in Jordan Zimmermann, with some pitching coming up through its system to fill out the rotation in the coming years, so I'm not sure why they'd deal for Gonzalez at this point unless they believe he's a lot better than I think he is.
He has racked up strikeouts the last few years despite below-average command and control that have led to high walk totals, and would likely have led to higher ERAs but for a great ballpark and Oakland's generally strong defenses. The 26-year-old has always had questions about his on-field makeup, particularly his ability to respond to adversity on the mound, something that I'm told is still a concern with him going forward. What Gio does bring is stuff. He'll show you a grade-55 fastball, a big-breaking curveball, and a fringe-average changeup, but not the command to get maximum results from his repertoire. I did think if he was traded to the wrong environment, like Yankee Stadium, he had disaster potential, but in Washington he's more likely to maintain some value (say, 2-2.5 wins above replacement) while leaving the club frustrated that he's not better.
Oakland gets a future ace, a starting catcher, a strong reliever who might be a back-end starter, and an up-and-down arm. Cole is the prize here, a potential No. 1 starter who ranked 36th on my midseason top prospects update and was the No. 2 prospect in Washington's system behind Bryce Harper.
Cole is now Oakland's top prospect, sitting in the mid-90s with much better fastball command than he showed as an amateur. He acquired a reputation in high school for disinterest on the mound and fell to the fourth round of the 2010 draft, but he was a new man this year and many scouts felt in hindsight he should have gone in the first round. He's primarily fastball-slider now and needs to improve his changeup (and just use it more), as he had a big platoon split at low Class A Hagerstown. He turns 20 next month and is about two full years away from the majors.
Norris broke his wrist following the 2009 season and has struggled to hit for average the last two years, but his secondary skills remain intact and he has plenty of arm to add value on defense. The 22-year-old has a sound swing with good hip rotation for average or slightly better pull power, and his eye at the plate has always been outstanding. So even if he hits .240 in the majors, he'll be a valuable offensive catcher. Behind the dish, Norris is a fair receiver but has arm strength with sub-2.00 pop times (throwing to second base), so he should continue to control the running game as he has in the minors, nailing 41 percent of runners over the last four seasons.
Peacock, 23, is a 6-foot right-hander with a lot of effort in his delivery, but he brings the heat with above-average velocity as a starter that would be plus out of the pen. His curve and change are both fringy, and between the effort in his delivery and lack of plane on his fastball (making him fly ball-prone), I think he's best suited for the pen. Milone, 24, is a finesse lefty with a below-average fastball and no out pitch; he might survive as an emergency guy in a big ballpark like Oakland's, but they can and will do better for the back of their rotation.
Bernie in the Hall.
Spoiler [+]
In a couple of weeks, the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce its newest members (if any). As Jim Caple writes today, this year's class is not particularly strong, and there is a lot of talk that not a single member of it will ever be enshrined in Cooperstown. That would be a mistake. One of our generation's best center fielders, Bernie Williams, is a member of the 2012 group, and he is every bit deserving of a spot in the Hall.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the advantage a player receives from playing for the New York Yankees, in Hall of Fame balloting, tends to be fairly insignificant. There are a lot of Yankees, especially from the first half of the century, in the Hall of Fame, but that's hardly surprising considering how many games those teams won. Playing in pinstripes didn't keep Willie Randolph (12th among second basemen in wins above replacement) or Graig Nettles (10th among third basemen in WAR) from getting tossed off the ballot in perfunctory fashion. Phil Rizzuto probably was a mistake by the veterans committee, but it has made strange inductions all over the place. Williams looks to be the latest star to get limited consideration by the Hall of Fame.
Given a cursory glance, Williams' career numbers don't look all that impressive. He hit 30 home runs in a season only once and failed to get to 300 for his career. And his 2,336 hits and .297 batting average aren't usually numbers that scream legend. Even his 47.3 career WAR isn't an overwhelming number, but it is more than those of players taken much more seriously, such as Jack Morris and Jim Rice, who was inducted into Cooperstown in 2009.
However, greatness isn't necessarily simply a function of career length. Some stars shine a long time, but some shine brighter. Historically, the Hall of Fame has rewarded not just those with long, very good careers, but also those who for a slice of time displayed real greatness, Hack Wilson being a prime example among center fielders.
[h4]Hall Pass[/h4]
If you look at five-year peak in terms of wins above replacement, Bernie Williams stacks up very well against the 17 center fielders in the Hall of Fame.
[th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Peak WAR[/th]
During his peak years, from 1994 to 2002, Williams was one of the best players in the game, hitting .319/.404/.525 (BA/OBP/SLG), making five All-Star teams and amassing 44 WAR by baseball-reference.com's reckoning. For a decade, Williams, while playing a position at which sluggers are hard to come by, hit like a star first baseman would. While Gold Gloves can be greatly overrated, Williams' winning four of them during that period certainly can't hurt his case for being a major superstar.
There are 17 players in the Hall of Fame who were primarily center fielders during their careers and inducted for their play in Major League Baseball. For each of these 17 players, I took their five best WAR seasons and compared them to Williams. For Williams, I used his zone rating numbers, as they are the most detailed defensive statistic available for the time period in question.
How does Williams fare? Quite well actually, with a peak that ranks eighth of the 17 Hall of Fame center fielders (see table). Williams, at his best, didn't touch Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays, but if the Hall of Fame consisted only of players such as them, there would be maybe 20 players in the Hall. Incidentally, Dale Murphy fares just as well; I'd put him in the Hall, too, but that's an argument for another day.
There's also the issue of Williams' postseason play. While the expanded playoff format gave Williams a lot more opportunities to rack up stats, nobody can doubt that he made the most of them, hitting .275/.371/.480 with 22 homers in 545 plate appearances. Even if you consider postseason play no more important than a regular-season game -- a difficult proposition, considering the desire every team and every fan has to win the World Series -- that's yet another star season tacked onto his résumé.
What will it take to get Williams into the Hall of Fame? At this point, he probably needs a miracle, such as a drastic change in how the Hall of Fame inducts players. It's unfortunate, too, because Williams was a better player than many Cooperstown inductees and deserves his own plaque.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the advantage a player receives from playing for the New York Yankees, in Hall of Fame balloting, tends to be fairly insignificant. There are a lot of Yankees, especially from the first half of the century, in the Hall of Fame, but that's hardly surprising considering how many games those teams won. Playing in pinstripes didn't keep Willie Randolph (12th among second basemen in wins above replacement) or Graig Nettles (10th among third basemen in WAR) from getting tossed off the ballot in perfunctory fashion. Phil Rizzuto probably was a mistake by the veterans committee, but it has made strange inductions all over the place. Williams looks to be the latest star to get limited consideration by the Hall of Fame.
Given a cursory glance, Williams' career numbers don't look all that impressive. He hit 30 home runs in a season only once and failed to get to 300 for his career. And his 2,336 hits and .297 batting average aren't usually numbers that scream legend. Even his 47.3 career WAR isn't an overwhelming number, but it is more than those of players taken much more seriously, such as Jack Morris and Jim Rice, who was inducted into Cooperstown in 2009.
However, greatness isn't necessarily simply a function of career length. Some stars shine a long time, but some shine brighter. Historically, the Hall of Fame has rewarded not just those with long, very good careers, but also those who for a slice of time displayed real greatness, Hack Wilson being a prime example among center fielders.
[h4]Hall Pass[/h4]
If you look at five-year peak in terms of wins above replacement, Bernie Williams stacks up very well against the 17 center fielders in the Hall of Fame.
| Mickey Mantle | 56.6 |
| Ty Cobb | 56.0 |
| Willie Mays | 52.4 |
| Tris Speaker | 48.1 |
| Joe DiMaggio | 42.0 |
| Duke Snider | 39.4 |
| Billy Hamilton | 35.3 |
| Bernie Williams | 30.8 |
| Richie Ashburn | 30.7 |
| Hack Wilson | 30.2 |
| Larry Doby | 29.9 |
| Earl Averill | 28.3 |
| Earle Combs | 28.0 |
| Kirby Puckett | 27.6 |
| Hugh Duffy | 27.5 |
| Edd Roush | 26.2 |
| Max Carey | 23.8 |
| Lloyd Waner | 17.0 |
During his peak years, from 1994 to 2002, Williams was one of the best players in the game, hitting .319/.404/.525 (BA/OBP/SLG), making five All-Star teams and amassing 44 WAR by baseball-reference.com's reckoning. For a decade, Williams, while playing a position at which sluggers are hard to come by, hit like a star first baseman would. While Gold Gloves can be greatly overrated, Williams' winning four of them during that period certainly can't hurt his case for being a major superstar.
There are 17 players in the Hall of Fame who were primarily center fielders during their careers and inducted for their play in Major League Baseball. For each of these 17 players, I took their five best WAR seasons and compared them to Williams. For Williams, I used his zone rating numbers, as they are the most detailed defensive statistic available for the time period in question.
How does Williams fare? Quite well actually, with a peak that ranks eighth of the 17 Hall of Fame center fielders (see table). Williams, at his best, didn't touch Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays, but if the Hall of Fame consisted only of players such as them, there would be maybe 20 players in the Hall. Incidentally, Dale Murphy fares just as well; I'd put him in the Hall, too, but that's an argument for another day.
There's also the issue of Williams' postseason play. While the expanded playoff format gave Williams a lot more opportunities to rack up stats, nobody can doubt that he made the most of them, hitting .275/.371/.480 with 22 homers in 545 plate appearances. Even if you consider postseason play no more important than a regular-season game -- a difficult proposition, considering the desire every team and every fan has to win the World Series -- that's yet another star season tacked onto his résumé.
What will it take to get Williams into the Hall of Fame? At this point, he probably needs a miracle, such as a drastic change in how the Hall of Fame inducts players. It's unfortunate, too, because Williams was a better player than many Cooperstown inductees and deserves his own plaque.
New parks, new numbers.
Spoiler [+]
For Edinson Volquez, Jason Kubel, and Travis Wood, Christmas came a few days early this year. While each struggled through the 2011 season, all of them have received a fresh start with a new organization, and perhaps more importantly, all three have traded in home ballparks that were terrible fits for their individual skills in exchange for environments that should prove far more friendly.
Perhaps no one is going to make a larger upgrade in surroundings this winter than Volquez, who is moving from a bandbox in Cincinnati to the pitcher's paradise that is San Diego. In fact, for a pitcher whose primary problem last year was allowing home runs, it's hard to find a better upgrade than moving from Great American Ballpark to Petco Park. For comparison, there were 209 home runs hit in Cincinnati last year -- third most in baseball -- while just 100 were hit in San Diego, the second lowest total of any park.
This change in location should produce a significant benefit for Volquez, who saw 20.7 percent of his fly balls go for home runs in 2011, the highest total of any pitcher who threw 100 or more innings last year. For contrast, San Diego's pitchers posted a HR/FB rate of 9.0 percent overall, and just 7.1 percent while pitching in the friendly confines of their home ballpark. Even with his command problems, Petco should neutralize Volquez's struggles with home runs, and the new ballpark may allow him to appear like he's finally figured out how to harness his stuff.
Like Volquez, Wood is also escaping from Cincinnati, though his landing spot in Chicago isn't quite as friendly to pitchers. However, Wrigley Field is predominantly friendly to left-handed home run hitters, and is only just a tick above average for right-handed batters who pull the ball out to left field. As a soft-tossing left-handed fly ball pitcher, these are the types of hitters who most often give Wood trouble. In fact, 17 of the 19 home runs he's allowed in his career have been to right-handed hitters -- the guys who get the most benefit from being able to pull the ball over the short left field fence in Cincinnati.
It's not just pitchers leaving Ohio who are going to be celebrating their new digs next season. When Kubel accepted a two-year, $15 million contract from the Arizona Diamondbacks, he also gave himself a very nice opportunity to see his numbers increase next season. While the Metrodome was kind to Kubel (and all other left-handed hitters), his numbers in Minnesota plummeted with the opening of Target Field. After hitting .294/.346/.495 at the Twins old digs, he's managed just a .254/.321/.403 mark in two seasons at their new ballpark, launching just 12 home runs in 448 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, left-handed power hitters thrive in the desert, hitting 14 percent more home runs at Chase Field than in an average ballpark. While the warm air leads to more home runs, the park's size also allows it to be generous on both doubles and triples as well, making it one of the best places to hit in baseball. Kubel will be trading in a park that is among the toughest in the sport on left-handed hitters for one that is among the most beneficial. Adjust your fantasy rankings accordingly.
Those three aren't the only ones who could really use a change of scenery this winter, however. With the Texas Rangers acquiring the rights to Yu Darvish, they are likely to have six starting pitchers for just five spots, and speculation has primarily focused on the team moving Alexi Ogando back to the bullpen or trading Matt Harrison. However, the player who could perhaps benefit most from leaving Texas is Colby Lewis.
Lewis has been a valuable asset for the Rangers since returning from Japan, but last year, he didn't exactly get along well with Texas' home ballpark. An extreme fly ball pitcher, Lewis saw 15.7 percent of his fly balls go over the fences in Arlington, leading to an American League leading 22 home runs allowed while pitching in his home ballpark. Due to these long ball problems, his home ERA was 5.54, two full runs higher than the 3.43 mark he posted on the road.
While Lewis is still a bargain in the final year of his contract -- he'll earn just $3.25 million in 2012 -- the Rangers could likely get a decent return for him, and his style of pitching doesn't really fit their environment anyway. Of all their starters, he's the one with the least amount of long-term value and the one who would benefit the most from pitching elsewhere next year.
If Lewis is on Santa's nice list, perhaps the Rangers will find him a new home next year as well.
Perhaps no one is going to make a larger upgrade in surroundings this winter than Volquez, who is moving from a bandbox in Cincinnati to the pitcher's paradise that is San Diego. In fact, for a pitcher whose primary problem last year was allowing home runs, it's hard to find a better upgrade than moving from Great American Ballpark to Petco Park. For comparison, there were 209 home runs hit in Cincinnati last year -- third most in baseball -- while just 100 were hit in San Diego, the second lowest total of any park.
This change in location should produce a significant benefit for Volquez, who saw 20.7 percent of his fly balls go for home runs in 2011, the highest total of any pitcher who threw 100 or more innings last year. For contrast, San Diego's pitchers posted a HR/FB rate of 9.0 percent overall, and just 7.1 percent while pitching in the friendly confines of their home ballpark. Even with his command problems, Petco should neutralize Volquez's struggles with home runs, and the new ballpark may allow him to appear like he's finally figured out how to harness his stuff.
Like Volquez, Wood is also escaping from Cincinnati, though his landing spot in Chicago isn't quite as friendly to pitchers. However, Wrigley Field is predominantly friendly to left-handed home run hitters, and is only just a tick above average for right-handed batters who pull the ball out to left field. As a soft-tossing left-handed fly ball pitcher, these are the types of hitters who most often give Wood trouble. In fact, 17 of the 19 home runs he's allowed in his career have been to right-handed hitters -- the guys who get the most benefit from being able to pull the ball over the short left field fence in Cincinnati.
It's not just pitchers leaving Ohio who are going to be celebrating their new digs next season. When Kubel accepted a two-year, $15 million contract from the Arizona Diamondbacks, he also gave himself a very nice opportunity to see his numbers increase next season. While the Metrodome was kind to Kubel (and all other left-handed hitters), his numbers in Minnesota plummeted with the opening of Target Field. After hitting .294/.346/.495 at the Twins old digs, he's managed just a .254/.321/.403 mark in two seasons at their new ballpark, launching just 12 home runs in 448 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, left-handed power hitters thrive in the desert, hitting 14 percent more home runs at Chase Field than in an average ballpark. While the warm air leads to more home runs, the park's size also allows it to be generous on both doubles and triples as well, making it one of the best places to hit in baseball. Kubel will be trading in a park that is among the toughest in the sport on left-handed hitters for one that is among the most beneficial. Adjust your fantasy rankings accordingly.
Those three aren't the only ones who could really use a change of scenery this winter, however. With the Texas Rangers acquiring the rights to Yu Darvish, they are likely to have six starting pitchers for just five spots, and speculation has primarily focused on the team moving Alexi Ogando back to the bullpen or trading Matt Harrison. However, the player who could perhaps benefit most from leaving Texas is Colby Lewis.
Lewis has been a valuable asset for the Rangers since returning from Japan, but last year, he didn't exactly get along well with Texas' home ballpark. An extreme fly ball pitcher, Lewis saw 15.7 percent of his fly balls go over the fences in Arlington, leading to an American League leading 22 home runs allowed while pitching in his home ballpark. Due to these long ball problems, his home ERA was 5.54, two full runs higher than the 3.43 mark he posted on the road.
While Lewis is still a bargain in the final year of his contract -- he'll earn just $3.25 million in 2012 -- the Rangers could likely get a decent return for him, and his style of pitching doesn't really fit their environment anyway. Of all their starters, he's the one with the least amount of long-term value and the one who would benefit the most from pitching elsewhere next year.
If Lewis is on Santa's nice list, perhaps the Rangers will find him a new home next year as well.
The great Yu Darvish myth.
Spoiler [+]
You probably could operate a small nation with the number of work hours that big league executives have exhausted trying to figure out how to handle the bid process for Japanese players, a system that one AL official referred to last week as "weird."
AP Photo/Shizuo KambayashiHow badly did Texas pummel the competition in bidding for Yu Darvish? Maybe by a ton.
There's no way to know how much any other team has bid; no way to know whether your bid might be $30 million short, or just by a nickel. It's like playing poker without seeing your cards or knowing how much money is in the game. So club executives have argued for years about what the right numbers should be -- for a Daisuke Matsuzaka, for a Yu Darvish. When the Red Sox bid $51 million for Dice-K, they decided to tack on a few extra dollars, just in case -- hence their final bid of $51,111,111.11. Just in case the Yankees bid $51 million, the Red Sox wanted to have a bid with a tiebreaker built in.
Earlier this week, the Rangers -- who probably had put in more time evaluating and scouting Darvish than any other team -- posted a bid of $51.7 million.
Since then, there have been reports that the Toronto Blue Jays barely missed out, with a bid of little over $50 million, and knowing how carefully general managers and their assistants think about this stuff, my first thought was: no way.
There's no way Toronto made a bid at those numbers. And the educated guess here is that Texas blew everybody else out of the water, including the Blue Jays.
Going into the Darvish bidding, executives with all teams understood that for a high-end talent like a Matsuzaka, or a Darvish, the bar had been set by the Red Sox offer. If anyone intended to be aggressive, to make sure they would win, they would probably need to place a beyond north of Boston's bid. It's logical.
So it would have been completely illogical for the Jays to bid $50 million. That would be like the Marlins tendering an offer of $100 million to Albert Pujols at the winter meetings, well below what St. Louis had offered last winter, or if the Yankees had offered C.J. Wilson three years and $45 million. If the Blue Jays were jacked up and flush with money and were going all out to win, they would have bid $51.5 million, or $55 million, or $60 million.
But they didn't. And it's probably because the front office is not in a position to do that.
Alex Anthopoulos, the Blue Jays' general manager, has a reputation among his peers for being earnest, for being a straight shooter. With reporters, he has demonstrated that he will not answer a question rather than to attempting deceive. He is always careful with his words, and after the Blue Jays traded prospect Nestor Molina for closer Sergio Santos during the winter meetings, Anthopoulos made references to working within payroll parameters.
Think about that for a moment.
This offseason has been absolutely flush with a wide range of free-agent closers, from high-end relievers like Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon to veterans who are less costly, from Joe Nathan to Francisco Cordero to Brad Lidge. And instead, Anthopoulos took the cheapest route, trading Molina for Santos, who makes very little money and is under control for years.
If Anthopoulos had a lot of money to spend, he could have easily grabbed one of the free-agent relievers. On Tuesday morning, Anthopoulos was on a conference call again with reporters, after the Darvish winner was announced. And again, he used words that are typically code for limited budget, like "parameters" and "creative," and he mentioned that since the winter meetings -- when he made the modest financial investment in Santos -- nothing had changed since the winter meetings -- a time frame in which he posted a bid on Darvish.
Within this answer, Anthopoulos addressed the question of how much the Jays bid on Darvish:
Scouts with other teams went into the Darvish bidding thinking that Texas and Toronto had the most enthusiasm about the right-hander from Japan. But that doesn't mean the Blue Jays came close to winning the bidding -- and in fact, the guess here is that they were closer to the Yankees' bid, of around $20 million, than to the Rangers' bid of $51.7 million.
---
Elsewhere, Jeff Blair also came away from Anthopoulos' conference call thinking that the Jays are not operating with as much money as speculation suggests.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• It's possible that a team could emerge in the Prince Fielder bidding, as the Angels did for Albert Pujols. But for now, it appears that several teams are waiting for the price tag to come down. Some executives say Fielder is looking for a 10-year deal, but the interest level for some clubs is closer to a six-year deal.
The Orioles aren't ruling out Fielder, but they probably aren't in big, either, writes Peter Schmuck.
• The Indians, who tried but failed to land Josh Willingham, are in the bidding for Carlos Beltran, sources say.
• Rival executives say the asking price for John Danks was extraordinarily high, equivalent to what the Rockies had asked for Ubaldo Jimenez. And when the White Sox weren't able to extricate that from any of the interested the teams, they decided, in the end, to invest long-term in Danks. Maybe they looked at the upcoming free-agent markets and figured that, inevitably, they would be looking for a pitcher just like Danks -- and wouldn't be able to find one, unless they joined the frenzied bidding that will probably swirl around Cole Hamels next fall.
But it's hard to square the Danks signing with Chicago's decision to move closer Sergio Santos at the winter meetings, where GM Ken Williams said that the rebuilding had begun.
With Danks off the board, the best available starters in the trade market are now Gio Gonzalez and Matt Garza, with Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis also in the discussions.
Second-tier free-agent starters won't help the Jays, writes Richard Griffin.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Royals signed a lefty reliever.
2. The Padres got a reliever.
3. Bobby Valentine's coaching staff is near completion.
4. The Twins are close to adding a starter.
5. The Braves tried to land Adam Jones.
6. The Nationals' ownership is starting to backslide, writes Thomas Boswell.
7. The Reds and Cubs finished the Sean Marshall/Travis Wood trade.
8. Andruw Jones is talking with the Red Sox, writes Mark Feinsand.
9. The Rangers picked up a catcher.
10. The Indians signed an infielder.
11. The Brewers signed Cesar Izturis.
12. Francisco Cordero doesn't interest the Red Sox. This makes it more likely Cordero will go back to Cincinnati.
13. The Brewers -- masters of marketing momentum -- announced they have already sold a million tickets.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• The Bill Conlin allegations have left the Hall of Fame in a difficult position. From Andrew Keh's story:
It does feel like trashing Betancourt has become Internet sport, like everybody sitting in a lunch room making fun of the odd-looking kid with glasses. We get it; he's not as good as other players. But it's not as if Kansas City gave him a $60 million contract.
AP Photo/Shizuo KambayashiHow badly did Texas pummel the competition in bidding for Yu Darvish? Maybe by a ton.
There's no way to know how much any other team has bid; no way to know whether your bid might be $30 million short, or just by a nickel. It's like playing poker without seeing your cards or knowing how much money is in the game. So club executives have argued for years about what the right numbers should be -- for a Daisuke Matsuzaka, for a Yu Darvish. When the Red Sox bid $51 million for Dice-K, they decided to tack on a few extra dollars, just in case -- hence their final bid of $51,111,111.11. Just in case the Yankees bid $51 million, the Red Sox wanted to have a bid with a tiebreaker built in.
Earlier this week, the Rangers -- who probably had put in more time evaluating and scouting Darvish than any other team -- posted a bid of $51.7 million.
Since then, there have been reports that the Toronto Blue Jays barely missed out, with a bid of little over $50 million, and knowing how carefully general managers and their assistants think about this stuff, my first thought was: no way.
There's no way Toronto made a bid at those numbers. And the educated guess here is that Texas blew everybody else out of the water, including the Blue Jays.
Going into the Darvish bidding, executives with all teams understood that for a high-end talent like a Matsuzaka, or a Darvish, the bar had been set by the Red Sox offer. If anyone intended to be aggressive, to make sure they would win, they would probably need to place a beyond north of Boston's bid. It's logical.
So it would have been completely illogical for the Jays to bid $50 million. That would be like the Marlins tendering an offer of $100 million to Albert Pujols at the winter meetings, well below what St. Louis had offered last winter, or if the Yankees had offered C.J. Wilson three years and $45 million. If the Blue Jays were jacked up and flush with money and were going all out to win, they would have bid $51.5 million, or $55 million, or $60 million.
But they didn't. And it's probably because the front office is not in a position to do that.
Alex Anthopoulos, the Blue Jays' general manager, has a reputation among his peers for being earnest, for being a straight shooter. With reporters, he has demonstrated that he will not answer a question rather than to attempting deceive. He is always careful with his words, and after the Blue Jays traded prospect Nestor Molina for closer Sergio Santos during the winter meetings, Anthopoulos made references to working within payroll parameters.
Think about that for a moment.
This offseason has been absolutely flush with a wide range of free-agent closers, from high-end relievers like Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon to veterans who are less costly, from Joe Nathan to Francisco Cordero to Brad Lidge. And instead, Anthopoulos took the cheapest route, trading Molina for Santos, who makes very little money and is under control for years.
If Anthopoulos had a lot of money to spend, he could have easily grabbed one of the free-agent relievers. On Tuesday morning, Anthopoulos was on a conference call again with reporters, after the Darvish winner was announced. And again, he used words that are typically code for limited budget, like "parameters" and "creative," and he mentioned that since the winter meetings -- when he made the modest financial investment in Santos -- nothing had changed since the winter meetings -- a time frame in which he posted a bid on Darvish.
Within this answer, Anthopoulos addressed the question of how much the Jays bid on Darvish:
- "I know [at the winter meetings] in Dallas we talked about payroll and parameters and balance, and … that means having to be creative. That doesn't mean our payroll isn't going up and so on, but I said it before: It's not a bottomless pit. I have what I have available, and I'm going to make that work, and we're going to try to put a competitive and world championship club on the field. We're operating in the offseason the way we have since the winter meetings. I know people have speculated that that isn't the case …
- "I think we have plenty. I think we have plenty to work with. We've been given a ton of money to sign players in the draft, we've been given a ton of money to bump up our staffing and so on. And again, is it a limitless amount of money? No. But do we have enough? Absolutely. Does it make us have to be a little more creative and look at other avenues and other ways of doing things? Sure, but that's fine, and it absolutely can be done. … We have plenty of resources, and I feel like we have enough creativity in the front office to make things work."
Scouts with other teams went into the Darvish bidding thinking that Texas and Toronto had the most enthusiasm about the right-hander from Japan. But that doesn't mean the Blue Jays came close to winning the bidding -- and in fact, the guess here is that they were closer to the Yankees' bid, of around $20 million, than to the Rangers' bid of $51.7 million.
---
Elsewhere, Jeff Blair also came away from Anthopoulos' conference call thinking that the Jays are not operating with as much money as speculation suggests.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• It's possible that a team could emerge in the Prince Fielder bidding, as the Angels did for Albert Pujols. But for now, it appears that several teams are waiting for the price tag to come down. Some executives say Fielder is looking for a 10-year deal, but the interest level for some clubs is closer to a six-year deal.
The Orioles aren't ruling out Fielder, but they probably aren't in big, either, writes Peter Schmuck.
• The Indians, who tried but failed to land Josh Willingham, are in the bidding for Carlos Beltran, sources say.
• Rival executives say the asking price for John Danks was extraordinarily high, equivalent to what the Rockies had asked for Ubaldo Jimenez. And when the White Sox weren't able to extricate that from any of the interested the teams, they decided, in the end, to invest long-term in Danks. Maybe they looked at the upcoming free-agent markets and figured that, inevitably, they would be looking for a pitcher just like Danks -- and wouldn't be able to find one, unless they joined the frenzied bidding that will probably swirl around Cole Hamels next fall.
But it's hard to square the Danks signing with Chicago's decision to move closer Sergio Santos at the winter meetings, where GM Ken Williams said that the rebuilding had begun.
With Danks off the board, the best available starters in the trade market are now Gio Gonzalez and Matt Garza, with Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis also in the discussions.
Second-tier free-agent starters won't help the Jays, writes Richard Griffin.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Royals signed a lefty reliever.
2. The Padres got a reliever.
3. Bobby Valentine's coaching staff is near completion.
4. The Twins are close to adding a starter.
5. The Braves tried to land Adam Jones.
6. The Nationals' ownership is starting to backslide, writes Thomas Boswell.
7. The Reds and Cubs finished the Sean Marshall/Travis Wood trade.
8. Andruw Jones is talking with the Red Sox, writes Mark Feinsand.
9. The Rangers picked up a catcher.
10. The Indians signed an infielder.
11. The Brewers signed Cesar Izturis.
12. Francisco Cordero doesn't interest the Red Sox. This makes it more likely Cordero will go back to Cincinnati.
13. The Brewers -- masters of marketing momentum -- announced they have already sold a million tickets.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• The Bill Conlin allegations have left the Hall of Fame in a difficult position. From Andrew Keh's story:
- Craig Muder, a spokesman for the Hall of Fame, said the organization would not comment on Conlin or his future inclusion in the exhibit, which is designed to remain until a new Spink recipient is installed next summer. Muder noted, though, that recipients of the Spink award were not actual members of the Hall.
Speaking generally, Muder said no person in any category had ever been removed from the Hall of Fame and that there was no mechanism in place to do so.
On Wednesday, though, some wondered whether such action might eventually be necessary.
Ross Newhan, a former columnist for the Los Angeles Times, was part of the three-person screening committee that nominated Conlin for the award early last year. Conlin was announced as the winner during the 2010 winter meetings and was presented with the award during the Hall of Fame induction ceremonies in July.
Newhan, who has known Conlin for more than 30 years, said he was stunned to read of the allegations, but emphasized that he was reserving judgment until more facts emerged.
But Newhan, who won the award in 2000, said that if the allegations were true, he would feel uneasy about allowing Conlin to keep the award and remain in the Hall.
"If he was guilty of molestation, then probably we should consider stripping him of the honor," Newhan said in an interview Wednesday. "What more abhorrent act is there, short of murder?"
It does feel like trashing Betancourt has become Internet sport, like everybody sitting in a lunch room making fun of the odd-looking kid with glasses. We get it; he's not as good as other players. But it's not as if Kansas City gave him a $60 million contract.
Rumors.
http://[h3]What's next for Oakland?[/h3]
11:36AM ET
[h5]Oakland Athletics [/h5]
The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics have now traded forty percent of their 2011 starting rotation in http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30054/trevor-cahillTrevor Cahill and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalezGio Gonzalez. They may not be done.
General manager Billy Beane has acquired key pieces including right-handers http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29806/jarrod-parkerJarrod Parker, Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole, as well as a future catcher in Derek Norris ... which brings us to the possibility that closer http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30096/andrew-baileyAndrew Bailey may not be the only significant piece still available.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney speculated Friday that http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28802/kurt-suzukiKurt Suzuki could also be a part of the franchise's fire sale.
The 28-year-old Suzuki's production has been trending south the past three years, but he's still a proven starting catcher -- one of the more rare commodities in baseball -- and he's under contract through 2013 at a reasonable $12.1 million (with a club option for 2014).
Bailey, meanwhile, has been linked to the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels and all three of the Athletics' division rivals.
While the A's have brought in starting pitchers and a catcher so far, they still haven't done much to address their holes in the outfield and third base, which were considered top priorities by Beane heading into the offseason.
- Jason Catania
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
A's get frontline arm for Gio
http://[h3]Will Prince's price plummet?[/h3]
11:21AM ET
[h5]Prince Fielder | Brewers | Interested: Mariners?, Cubs? [/h5]
And then there was one.
With Carlos Beltran's agreement in place to play for the St. Louis Cardinals, Prince Fielder is now all by his lonesome as the last remaining big-time impact bat.
At least a half-dozen clubs have shown interest so far in what has been a long, drawn-out process -- intentionally so, given agent Scott Boras' reputation. FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal tweeted that he wouldn't be surprised if Boras was shooting for a deal for Fielder with an average annual salary of $25.5 million. In other words, just north of what Albert Pujols is getting on average (10 years, $254 million) from the Los Angeles Angels. But the teams in play for Fielder appear to be hesitant to offer such a large amount or come close to the 10-year deal he's apparently seeking.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported Wednesday morning the Fielder Derby is heating up and the Mariners, Nationals and Orioles are among about six teams eyeing the first baseman. The Cubs, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins and Brewers also have been mentioned as possibilities, though there are also reports that the Cubs are not players.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney mentioned via Twitter Wednesday that it appears the teams after Fielder are all in the same boat for the moment -- hoping the price tag will drop before loading up their shopping cart. Still, as Olney qualifies, it only takes one team to make a big offer. In this case, that's still nearly a given, considering that Boras is known for getting every last dollar for his clients.
Heyman tweeted Tuesday that the Seattle Mariners have made an offer, adding that the M's want to sign Fielder, but there are limits as to what they would pay.
Same goes for the Baltimore Orioles, according to Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com.
The Chicago Cubs -- if they're even in the mix -- are taking the same cautious approach. Buster Olney tweeted they've done some background work on Fielder, and they would like him, but again, only on their terms.
History says never to count out Boras, and all we have to do is look back a year ago when http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4262/jayson-werthhttp://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4262/jayson-werthJayson Werth, a player not in same offensive ballpark as Fielder, landed a $126 million deal in Washington.
Boras also does not use the holidays as a bench mark for reaching a deal. A few years ago, he waited until January before reaching a mega deal for Carlos Beltran with the New York Mets.
Olney has more on Fielder in Thursday's blog and in this video:
- Jason Catania
[h5]Matt Meyers[/h5]
The Nats should strike big
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Pricing Prince
http://[h3]Indians after Swisher?[/h3]
11:08AM ET
[h5]Nick Swisher | Yankees [/h5]
The Cleveland Indians have been targeting help in the outfield and at first base all offseason, but the only return they have to show for their efforts so far is bringing back Grady Sizemore. After missing out on Josh Willingham and Michael Cuddyer, could the club be making a push to trade for Nick Swisher?
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported Thursday that Cleveland is one of several clubs who have checked in on the availability of the Yankees' switch-hitting right fielder.
GM Brian Cashman, though, doesn't seem all that interested in moving the 31-year-old who sports a career .360 OBP and has notched 20-plus homers for seven straight seasons. The Yanks picked up Swisher's 2012 option for $10.25 million earlier in the offseason.
Another reason Swisher would be hard to get? The Yanks lack any serviceable backup or major-league ready outfield prospects. They have been linked to Cuban star Yoenis Cespedes, but with the team up against its reported payroll limit, it seems unlikely they would be able to afford the $30 million (or more) it could take to land Cespedes.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Details on Wood-for-Marshall deal[/h3]
10:53AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
We're still awaiting official word on the the trade between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds that will send lefty reliever http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6489/sean-marshallSean Marshall to Cincinnati for left-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30515/travis-woodTravis Wood and two minor leaguers, but we now know the identities of the prospects.
Thanks to ESPN Insider Keith Law, the two players are outfielder Dave Sappelt and infielder Ronald Torreyes. Sappelt, 24, hit .243 in his first 38 games as a big-leaguer in 2011 and profiles as a solid defender who can handle all three outfield spots, making him a good fit as a fourth outfielder. Torreyes is just 19 and all of 5'9", 140, but the second-base prospect owns a career .364 average through his first two pro seasons. Neither player projects to be a star, but they're also not throwaways, either.
The deal was initially reported by Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.
The 29-year-old Marshall went 6-6 with 2.20 ERA and had 34 holds, tied for second in the majors among left-handed relievers. The loss of Marshall means http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30388/john-gaubJohn Gaub, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30592/james-russellJames Russell and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30952/scott-maineScott Maine will have an opportunity to move up as a primary setup man from the left side.
Reds GM Walt Jocketty made bullpen help a priority after acquiring http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30196/mat-latosMat Latos in a deal with the San Diego Padres last week. Marshall could make it easier for the Reds to move http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30442/aroldis-chapmanAroldis Chapman into the rotation.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Who's in on Saunders?[/h3]
10:33AM ET
[h5]Joe Saunders | Diamondbacks [/h5]
While he won't return to Arizona, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Saunders has options.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweeted Friday that the Miami Marlins should be added to the list of teams (below) that are considering Saunders.
The 30-year-old lefty has already been linked to the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds, and he may be a fit for the Detroit Tigers now that they missed out on Gio Gonzalez. The Washington Nationals could also have interest, as could the Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres.
Saunders was rumored to have been in talks with the D-Backs on a two-year deal before the club non-tendered him. His deal could influence the market for right-handers Edwin Jackson and Rich Harden and fellow lefties Jeff Francis and Paul Maholm.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Rizzo fits with Rays, Cubs[/h3]
10:24AM ET
[h5]Anthony Rizzo | Padres [/h5]
After acquiring http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30016/yonder-alonsoYonder Alonso in the trade that sent right-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30196/mat-latosMat Latos to the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-redsCincinnati Reds last week, the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sd/san-diego-padresSan Diego Padres could shop first base prospect http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30782/anthony-rizzoAnthony Rizzo to help the club fill other holes, perhaps in the starting pitching department.
Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune chatted about the best fits for Rizzo. His take? The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs are the most interested parties.
Neither of those clubs have a long-term solution at first base, so Rizzo makes sense as a nearly-ready elite prospect. As Dan Hayes of the North County Times reported, the Rays could offer http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28957/wade-davisWade Davis as part of a package.
Meanwhile, the Cubs may not have a young, cheap starter to match Davis' upside, but they do have some young talent, including centerfielder Brett Jackson. And if the Padres were interested in Matt Garza, that could be a match, too. Remember the Cubs' new front office knows Rizzo well.
Other potentially interested clubs could include the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/wsh/washington-nationalsWashington Nationals, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-piratesPittsburgh Pirates, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewersMilwaukee Brewers and http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-indiansCleveland Indians.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Mariners like Francis[/h3]
10:09AM ET
[h5]Jeff Francis | Royals [/h5]
There's been plenty of speculation about the Seattle Mariners getting involved in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, but word also has it that Jeff Francis is on their radar, too.
The M's like Francis, a 30-year-old southpaw who posted a 4.82 ERA for the Kansas City Royals last year, as a veteran presence in their rotation who can keep a spot warm until their key pitching prospects are ready to contribute, Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported.
Seattle's projected starting five as of right now includes Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Jason Vargas, Blake Beavan and Charlie Furbush. The team does have three high-ceiling arms on the way, though, in right-hander Taijuan Walker and lefties James Paxton and Danny Hultzen, who was the No. 2 overall pick in last June's draft.
Walker is a few years out, but Paxton could make his debut by mid-2012, and there has been speculation that Hultzen could make the team out of camp. Bringing in a vet like Francis, though, would allow the Mariners to exercise a little more patience with their prized pitching prospects.
Other teams that have been linked to Francis include the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Boston's plan of (in)action[/h3]
9:35AM ET
[h5]Boston Red Sox [/h5]
The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-soxBoston Red Sox were in on http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalezGio Gonzalez before the Washington Nationals acquired the left-hander from the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics Thursday. The Sox still have needs -- starting pitching and closer among them -- so where do they turn now?
In terms of rotation help, right-handers http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5842/edwin-jacksonEdwin Jackson and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4575/roy-oswaltRoy Oswalt, and lefty http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6383/joe-saundersJoe Saunders, head the free-agent crop. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5588/rich-hardenRich Harden was a target of the club last summer and also sits on the open market.
With http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28508/john-danksJohn Danks signed long term in Chicago, the White Sox could use right-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5922/gavin-floydGavin Floyd as bait to acquire more pieces and the Red Sox could be a fit.
Whether or not http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28528/matt-garzaMatt Garza is a player the Sox may chase remains to be seen, but the Cubs appear willing to discuss the right-hander. The Rays have been rumored to be open to moving http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6243/jeff-niemannJeff Niemann or http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28957/wade-davisWade Davis -- and perhaps http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28474/james-shieldsJames Shields under the right circumstances -- but whether they'd deal with a division rival is unclear.
As for a back-of-the-bullpen arm, the Sox are rumored to be after everyone from the A's Andrew Bailey to the Seattle Mariners' Brandon League to even Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals.
Judging by how GM Ben Cherington has approached this offseason so far, and reading between the lines a bit, it seems that Boston is more interested in trading for upgrades rather than spending more money on free agents -- especially with the news that they and the New York Yankees are the only two MLB teams who were hit with a luxury tax bill.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Fallout from Beltran to Cards[/h3]
9:18AM ET
[h5]Carlos Beltran | Cardinals [/h5]
The second-best available free agent bat came off the market when Carlos Beltran agreed to terms with the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday night.
Beltran's deal is reportedly worth $26 million over 2 years, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.
Getting Beltran should help compensate for some of the middle-of-the-lineup production the Cards lost when Albert Pujols bolted for the Los Angeles Angels. Even though he's aging (34) and still battles occasional knee issues, Beltran is coming off a very productive 2011, when he batted .300 with 22 home runs, 84 RBIs and a .385 OBP.
As for the impact this has on St. Louis' depth chart? We'd expect Beltran to be the regular right fielder, with Lance Berkman moving to first base to cover Pujols' former spot. That leaves postseason hero Allen Craig, who is likely to miss the first month of 2012 while recovering from offseason knee surgery, to handle a backup role at the outfield corners and possibly first base. Given that both Beltran and Berkman aren't exactly bastions of health, Craig will be used to rest those two often.
With Beltran gone, the only big bat remaining in free agency is Prince Fielder, which is just the way agent Scott Boras likes to operate. There's now no fallback option if a team misses out on Fielder, so the 27-year-old lefty slugger just picked up a little more leverage in his quest for a gigantic contract that could potentially be worth upward of $200 million over 8-10 years.
ESPN Insider Jim Bowden called Beltran the No. 1 most undervalued remaining free agent in his GM's office column last week:
- Jason Catania
[h5] [/h5]
Nationals move ahead of schedule.
A's add top prospects.
Bernie in the Hall.
New parks, new numbers.
The great Yu Darvish myth.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Bailey's trade market[/h3]
12:47PM ET
[h5]Andrew Bailey | Athletics [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics have already dealt starting pitcher Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, but closer Andrew Bailey is still an employee in the East Bay. That may not last for long, so let's summarize bailey's trade market.
We've heard reports that the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels have interest in Bailey, as well as the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners. The Cincinnati Reds have a need at closer and could see Bailey as an alternative to Francisco Cordero.
The Red Sox appear to be out of payroll space, so a trade for a closer, especially one under club control like Bailey, seems more likely than signing Ryan Madson or Cordero.
The Nationals, who landed Gonzalez Thursday, could still use Drew Storen as trade bait to land a centerfielder, and in that case could find themselves in the market for Madson or Bailey.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Cespedes update[/h3]
12:35PM ET
[h5]Yoenis Cespedes [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
[h5]Clubs linked to Cespedes[/h5]
Yoenis Cespedes has finally established residency in the Dominican Republic and could be granted free agency any day, which could spur a bidding war between a a number of interested clubs.
Kevin Goldstein tweets that the New York Yankees are "BIG" on the outfielder, which could make for a domino effect, as the club has three starting outfielders in Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.
Gardner or Swisher could be traded, or used in multiple roles in the outfield and the designated hitter spot.
After losing out on Yu Darvish, the Jays may step up their efforts toward other pitching options, which could put them on the outside looking in on Cespedes.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Prince could follow Gio[/h3]
11:59AM ET
[h5]Washington Nationals [/h5]
Now that the Washington Nationals have landed their top priority this offseason -- a front-end lefty starting pitcher -- in getting Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland Athletics, they're done making big moves, right?
Not necessarily. As Scott Miller of CBSSports.com reported Thursday, there could be room for Prince Fielder in D.C.
The Washington Post's Dave Sheinin echoed that sentiment, noting that getting Gonzalez didn't cost the club much in salary, so it shouldn't eliminate them from the Fielder sweepstakes.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney has much more on the impact of the Nationals' acquisition of Gonzalez -- and what it might mean for a certain lefty-slugging first baseman -- in Friday's column:
- Jason Catania
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Gio's got stuff
[h5]Matt Meyers[/h5]
Nats need to go all-in
12:47PM ET
[h5]Andrew Bailey | Athletics [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics have already dealt starting pitcher Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, but closer Andrew Bailey is still an employee in the East Bay. That may not last for long, so let's summarize bailey's trade market.
We've heard reports that the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels have interest in Bailey, as well as the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners. The Cincinnati Reds have a need at closer and could see Bailey as an alternative to Francisco Cordero.
The Red Sox appear to be out of payroll space, so a trade for a closer, especially one under club control like Bailey, seems more likely than signing Ryan Madson or Cordero.
The Nationals, who landed Gonzalez Thursday, could still use Drew Storen as trade bait to land a centerfielder, and in that case could find themselves in the market for Madson or Bailey.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Cespedes update[/h3]
12:35PM ET
[h5]Yoenis Cespedes [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
[h5]Clubs linked to Cespedes[/h5]
- Miami Marlins
- Washington Nationals
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Cleveland Indians
- New York Yankees
- Oakland Athletics
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Detroit Tigers
- Chicago Cubs
- Boston Red Sox
- Baltimore Orioles
- Toronto Blue Jays
Yoenis Cespedes has finally established residency in the Dominican Republic and could be granted free agency any day, which could spur a bidding war between a a number of interested clubs.
Kevin Goldstein tweets that the New York Yankees are "BIG" on the outfielder, which could make for a domino effect, as the club has three starting outfielders in Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.
Gardner or Swisher could be traded, or used in multiple roles in the outfield and the designated hitter spot.
After losing out on Yu Darvish, the Jays may step up their efforts toward other pitching options, which could put them on the outside looking in on Cespedes.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Prince could follow Gio[/h3]
11:59AM ET
[h5]Washington Nationals [/h5]
Now that the Washington Nationals have landed their top priority this offseason -- a front-end lefty starting pitcher -- in getting Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland Athletics, they're done making big moves, right?
Not necessarily. As Scott Miller of CBSSports.com reported Thursday, there could be room for Prince Fielder in D.C.
The Washington Post's Dave Sheinin echoed that sentiment, noting that getting Gonzalez didn't cost the club much in salary, so it shouldn't eliminate them from the Fielder sweepstakes.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney has much more on the impact of the Nationals' acquisition of Gonzalez -- and what it might mean for a certain lefty-slugging first baseman -- in Friday's column:
- Jason Catania
Gio's got stuff
Nats need to go all-in
11:36AM ET
[h5]Oakland Athletics [/h5]
The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics have now traded forty percent of their 2011 starting rotation in http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30054/trevor-cahillTrevor Cahill and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalezGio Gonzalez. They may not be done.
General manager Billy Beane has acquired key pieces including right-handers http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29806/jarrod-parkerJarrod Parker, Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole, as well as a future catcher in Derek Norris ... which brings us to the possibility that closer http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30096/andrew-baileyAndrew Bailey may not be the only significant piece still available.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney speculated Friday that http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28802/kurt-suzukiKurt Suzuki could also be a part of the franchise's fire sale.
The 28-year-old Suzuki's production has been trending south the past three years, but he's still a proven starting catcher -- one of the more rare commodities in baseball -- and he's under contract through 2013 at a reasonable $12.1 million (with a club option for 2014).
Bailey, meanwhile, has been linked to the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels and all three of the Athletics' division rivals.
While the A's have brought in starting pitchers and a catcher so far, they still haven't done much to address their holes in the outfield and third base, which were considered top priorities by Beane heading into the offseason.
- Jason Catania
A's get frontline arm for Gio
http://[h3]Will Prince's price plummet?[/h3]
11:21AM ET
[h5]Prince Fielder | Brewers | Interested: Mariners?, Cubs? [/h5]
And then there was one.
With Carlos Beltran's agreement in place to play for the St. Louis Cardinals, Prince Fielder is now all by his lonesome as the last remaining big-time impact bat.
At least a half-dozen clubs have shown interest so far in what has been a long, drawn-out process -- intentionally so, given agent Scott Boras' reputation. FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal tweeted that he wouldn't be surprised if Boras was shooting for a deal for Fielder with an average annual salary of $25.5 million. In other words, just north of what Albert Pujols is getting on average (10 years, $254 million) from the Los Angeles Angels. But the teams in play for Fielder appear to be hesitant to offer such a large amount or come close to the 10-year deal he's apparently seeking.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported Wednesday morning the Fielder Derby is heating up and the Mariners, Nationals and Orioles are among about six teams eyeing the first baseman. The Cubs, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins and Brewers also have been mentioned as possibilities, though there are also reports that the Cubs are not players.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney mentioned via Twitter Wednesday that it appears the teams after Fielder are all in the same boat for the moment -- hoping the price tag will drop before loading up their shopping cart. Still, as Olney qualifies, it only takes one team to make a big offer. In this case, that's still nearly a given, considering that Boras is known for getting every last dollar for his clients.
Heyman tweeted Tuesday that the Seattle Mariners have made an offer, adding that the M's want to sign Fielder, but there are limits as to what they would pay.
Same goes for the Baltimore Orioles, according to Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com.
The Chicago Cubs -- if they're even in the mix -- are taking the same cautious approach. Buster Olney tweeted they've done some background work on Fielder, and they would like him, but again, only on their terms.
History says never to count out Boras, and all we have to do is look back a year ago when http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4262/jayson-werthhttp://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4262/jayson-werthJayson Werth, a player not in same offensive ballpark as Fielder, landed a $126 million deal in Washington.
Boras also does not use the holidays as a bench mark for reaching a deal. A few years ago, he waited until January before reaching a mega deal for Carlos Beltran with the New York Mets.
Olney has more on Fielder in Thursday's blog and in this video:
- Jason Catania
The Nats should strike big
Pricing Prince
http://[h3]Indians after Swisher?[/h3]
11:08AM ET
[h5]Nick Swisher | Yankees [/h5]
The Cleveland Indians have been targeting help in the outfield and at first base all offseason, but the only return they have to show for their efforts so far is bringing back Grady Sizemore. After missing out on Josh Willingham and Michael Cuddyer, could the club be making a push to trade for Nick Swisher?
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported Thursday that Cleveland is one of several clubs who have checked in on the availability of the Yankees' switch-hitting right fielder.
GM Brian Cashman, though, doesn't seem all that interested in moving the 31-year-old who sports a career .360 OBP and has notched 20-plus homers for seven straight seasons. The Yanks picked up Swisher's 2012 option for $10.25 million earlier in the offseason.
Another reason Swisher would be hard to get? The Yanks lack any serviceable backup or major-league ready outfield prospects. They have been linked to Cuban star Yoenis Cespedes, but with the team up against its reported payroll limit, it seems unlikely they would be able to afford the $30 million (or more) it could take to land Cespedes.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Details on Wood-for-Marshall deal[/h3]
10:53AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
We're still awaiting official word on the the trade between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds that will send lefty reliever http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6489/sean-marshallSean Marshall to Cincinnati for left-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30515/travis-woodTravis Wood and two minor leaguers, but we now know the identities of the prospects.
Thanks to ESPN Insider Keith Law, the two players are outfielder Dave Sappelt and infielder Ronald Torreyes. Sappelt, 24, hit .243 in his first 38 games as a big-leaguer in 2011 and profiles as a solid defender who can handle all three outfield spots, making him a good fit as a fourth outfielder. Torreyes is just 19 and all of 5'9", 140, but the second-base prospect owns a career .364 average through his first two pro seasons. Neither player projects to be a star, but they're also not throwaways, either.
The deal was initially reported by Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.
The 29-year-old Marshall went 6-6 with 2.20 ERA and had 34 holds, tied for second in the majors among left-handed relievers. The loss of Marshall means http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30388/john-gaubJohn Gaub, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30592/james-russellJames Russell and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30952/scott-maineScott Maine will have an opportunity to move up as a primary setup man from the left side.
Reds GM Walt Jocketty made bullpen help a priority after acquiring http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30196/mat-latosMat Latos in a deal with the San Diego Padres last week. Marshall could make it easier for the Reds to move http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30442/aroldis-chapmanAroldis Chapman into the rotation.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Who's in on Saunders?[/h3]
10:33AM ET
[h5]Joe Saunders | Diamondbacks [/h5]
While he won't return to Arizona, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Saunders has options.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweeted Friday that the Miami Marlins should be added to the list of teams (below) that are considering Saunders.
The 30-year-old lefty has already been linked to the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds, and he may be a fit for the Detroit Tigers now that they missed out on Gio Gonzalez. The Washington Nationals could also have interest, as could the Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres.
Saunders was rumored to have been in talks with the D-Backs on a two-year deal before the club non-tendered him. His deal could influence the market for right-handers Edwin Jackson and Rich Harden and fellow lefties Jeff Francis and Paul Maholm.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Rizzo fits with Rays, Cubs[/h3]
10:24AM ET
[h5]Anthony Rizzo | Padres [/h5]
After acquiring http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30016/yonder-alonsoYonder Alonso in the trade that sent right-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30196/mat-latosMat Latos to the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-redsCincinnati Reds last week, the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sd/san-diego-padresSan Diego Padres could shop first base prospect http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30782/anthony-rizzoAnthony Rizzo to help the club fill other holes, perhaps in the starting pitching department.
Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune chatted about the best fits for Rizzo. His take? The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs are the most interested parties.
Neither of those clubs have a long-term solution at first base, so Rizzo makes sense as a nearly-ready elite prospect. As Dan Hayes of the North County Times reported, the Rays could offer http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28957/wade-davisWade Davis as part of a package.
Meanwhile, the Cubs may not have a young, cheap starter to match Davis' upside, but they do have some young talent, including centerfielder Brett Jackson. And if the Padres were interested in Matt Garza, that could be a match, too. Remember the Cubs' new front office knows Rizzo well.
Other potentially interested clubs could include the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/wsh/washington-nationalsWashington Nationals, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-piratesPittsburgh Pirates, http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewersMilwaukee Brewers and http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-indiansCleveland Indians.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Mariners like Francis[/h3]
10:09AM ET
[h5]Jeff Francis | Royals [/h5]
There's been plenty of speculation about the Seattle Mariners getting involved in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, but word also has it that Jeff Francis is on their radar, too.
The M's like Francis, a 30-year-old southpaw who posted a 4.82 ERA for the Kansas City Royals last year, as a veteran presence in their rotation who can keep a spot warm until their key pitching prospects are ready to contribute, Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported.
Seattle's projected starting five as of right now includes Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Jason Vargas, Blake Beavan and Charlie Furbush. The team does have three high-ceiling arms on the way, though, in right-hander Taijuan Walker and lefties James Paxton and Danny Hultzen, who was the No. 2 overall pick in last June's draft.
Walker is a few years out, but Paxton could make his debut by mid-2012, and there has been speculation that Hultzen could make the team out of camp. Bringing in a vet like Francis, though, would allow the Mariners to exercise a little more patience with their prized pitching prospects.
Other teams that have been linked to Francis include the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Boston's plan of (in)action[/h3]
9:35AM ET
[h5]Boston Red Sox [/h5]
The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-soxBoston Red Sox were in on http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalezGio Gonzalez before the Washington Nationals acquired the left-hander from the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athleticsOakland Athletics Thursday. The Sox still have needs -- starting pitching and closer among them -- so where do they turn now?
In terms of rotation help, right-handers http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5842/edwin-jacksonEdwin Jackson and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4575/roy-oswaltRoy Oswalt, and lefty http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6383/joe-saundersJoe Saunders, head the free-agent crop. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5588/rich-hardenRich Harden was a target of the club last summer and also sits on the open market.
With http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28508/john-danksJohn Danks signed long term in Chicago, the White Sox could use right-hander http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5922/gavin-floydGavin Floyd as bait to acquire more pieces and the Red Sox could be a fit.
Whether or not http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28528/matt-garzaMatt Garza is a player the Sox may chase remains to be seen, but the Cubs appear willing to discuss the right-hander. The Rays have been rumored to be open to moving http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6243/jeff-niemannJeff Niemann or http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28957/wade-davisWade Davis -- and perhaps http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28474/james-shieldsJames Shields under the right circumstances -- but whether they'd deal with a division rival is unclear.
As for a back-of-the-bullpen arm, the Sox are rumored to be after everyone from the A's Andrew Bailey to the Seattle Mariners' Brandon League to even Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals.
Judging by how GM Ben Cherington has approached this offseason so far, and reading between the lines a bit, it seems that Boston is more interested in trading for upgrades rather than spending more money on free agents -- especially with the news that they and the New York Yankees are the only two MLB teams who were hit with a luxury tax bill.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Fallout from Beltran to Cards[/h3]
9:18AM ET
[h5]Carlos Beltran | Cardinals [/h5]
The second-best available free agent bat came off the market when Carlos Beltran agreed to terms with the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday night.
Beltran's deal is reportedly worth $26 million over 2 years, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.
Getting Beltran should help compensate for some of the middle-of-the-lineup production the Cards lost when Albert Pujols bolted for the Los Angeles Angels. Even though he's aging (34) and still battles occasional knee issues, Beltran is coming off a very productive 2011, when he batted .300 with 22 home runs, 84 RBIs and a .385 OBP.
As for the impact this has on St. Louis' depth chart? We'd expect Beltran to be the regular right fielder, with Lance Berkman moving to first base to cover Pujols' former spot. That leaves postseason hero Allen Craig, who is likely to miss the first month of 2012 while recovering from offseason knee surgery, to handle a backup role at the outfield corners and possibly first base. Given that both Beltran and Berkman aren't exactly bastions of health, Craig will be used to rest those two often.
With Beltran gone, the only big bat remaining in free agency is Prince Fielder, which is just the way agent Scott Boras likes to operate. There's now no fallback option if a team misses out on Fielder, so the 27-year-old lefty slugger just picked up a little more leverage in his quest for a gigantic contract that could potentially be worth upward of $200 million over 8-10 years.
ESPN Insider Jim Bowden called Beltran the No. 1 most undervalued remaining free agent in his GM's office column last week:
- Jason Catania
[h5] [/h5]
Nationals move ahead of schedule.
Spoiler [+]
Gio Gonzalez was out with family when his phone started blowing up Thursday afternoon. "It's been going crazy," he said. "I haven't heard anything, though."
[+] Enlarge
Greg Fiume/Getty ImagesMike Rizzo and Davey Johnson don't appear to be in the mood to wait.
Within minutes, he did get word of the deal, and, assuming that Gonzalez is able to pass his physical -- and part of the attraction of trading for the 26-year-old lefty is that he has a virtually pristine medical history -- he will join a rotation that already has Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg. Hitters will go into a series against Washington knowing they will be in for extremely difficult at-bats, facing guys with nasty stuff.
Gonzalez had some control problems last year, walking 91 in 202 innings for Oakland, but he limited the damage against him, holding opponents to a .336 slugging percentage -- seventh-best in the big leagues -- meaning few hitters were taking comfortable swings against him. And Gonzalez now shifts to the easier league, where he can work through some jams by taking advantage of the presence of the pitcher's spot in the lineup.
In Strasburg's 92 innings in the big leagues, opposing hitters have an OPS of .547. Against Zimmermann, hitters posted a .671 OPS. The Nationals might have some more growing to do, as Strasburg becomes more durable and increases his innings total and as Bryce Harper eventually ascends to the big leagues. But they already will be a dangerous team with Gonzalez anchoring their rotation.
They paid heavily for Gonzalez, according to rival scouts. Oakland never got deeply into talks with Cincinnati about Gonzalez, but the Athletics would not have traded the lefty to Cincinnati for the package the Reds gave up for Mat Latos; the A's feel as if they got more from the Nationals, especially after Washington agreed on Thursday morning to include Tom Milone and Brad Peacock in the deal. Peacock went 15-3 with a 2.39 ERA in 2011, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, and a talent evaluator who saw him in the summer said the right-hander reminded him of Brad Radke -- because of his command and because of his feel for pitching. In two years, the evaluator believes, it's possible that Peacock will be a better pitcher than Gonzalez.
A.J. Cole, 19, was drafted in the fourth round in 2010, and he had a good season in Class A, striking out 108 battings in 89 innings for Hagerstown. And Derek Norris, a 22-year-old catcher, who was drafted by Washington in the fourth round in 2007, had a .367 on-base percentage in Double-A this past year, with 20 homers.
You wonder whether the trade for Norris eventually will lead to the trade of Kurt Suzuki, who is signed through the 2013 season -- with an option for 2014 -- for a total of $12.1 million. Oakland is clearly loading up on players who will be around in 2014 and 2015, when the Athletics hope to be in a new ballpark in San Jose. Suzuki is 28 years old, and although he is coming off a year in which he hit .237, there will be interest in the veteran at a time when catching is scarce.
• The reaction in the Bay Area to the Oakland trade was strong, and angry, with frustrated fans asking when the Athletics will stop turning over players and start trying to win. It's evident from the actions of owner Lew Wolff and general manager Billy Beane that, with the current stadium situation, the Athletics can't win -- at least not until the club moves into a ballpark that will help generate more revenue and compete with the Angels and Rangers.
The Athletics are probably going to be awful in 2012 and may well lose more games than any other team in the majors, and some fans might not bother showing up anymore. But it's not as if they've been showing up anyway; even when Oakland won regularly a decade ago, the team drew little more than 2 million fans -- and the Athletics haven't hit 2 million in attendance since 2005.
The migration of Oakland starters continued, writes Susan Slusser. The trade for Gonzalez will renew speculation that the Nationals are in position to make a hard run at Prince Fielder, Dave Sheinin writes within this story -- the reason being that Washington is spending relative pennies on its rotation.
[h3]The Beltran deal[/h3]
• The Cardinals wrapped up their negotiations with Carlos Beltran, who is being projected as a No. 2 hitter for St. Louis. The Indians were among the teams Beltran turned down.
Warning: A small sample alert. In his career, Carlos Beltran has hit .340, with a 1.088 OPS, at the new Busch Stadium, with eight extra-base hits in 54 plate appearances.
From Justin Havens, Katie Sharp and Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Information, some stuff on Beltran:
Although he's no longer a borderline MVP candidate, Beltran's track record of productivity can be matched by few in the National League since 2005. Beltran ranks sixth in the NL among position players in WAR (wins above replacement) in that span. Consider his most wins above replacement ranking among NL position players since the start of the 2005 season:
Albert Pujols: 55.7
Chase Utley: 48.6
David Wright: 36.8
Matt Holliday: 35.2
Chipper Jones: 32.3
Carlos Beltran: 32.2
Besides his offensive and defensive skills, Beltran has a history of excelling in the postseason. No player in MLB history has a higher OPS in the postseason than Beltran (minimum 75 PA):
Carlos Beltran: 1.302
Babe Ruth: 1.211
Lou Gehrig: 1.208
Last season was the first since 2008 in which Beltran played at least 100 games. Although he has missed significant time in two of the past three seasons, Beltran, even at age 34, still has been a highly productive player when healthy. If you averaged him over a 162-game season, he'd bat .298 with a .8881 OPS, 22 HRs and 90 RBIs.
With Beltran joining the Cardinals, St. Louis has the two best offensive switch-hitters in the majors from last season in OPS:
Lance Berkman: .959
Carlos Beltran: .910
Jose Reyes: .877
Victor Martinez: .850
Shane Victorino: .847
Clearly, it would be aggressive to suggest that Beltran will fill the hole created by Albert Pujols' departure. However, when you look at how productive they were in 2011 alone, it's much closer than one might think. Beltran hit .300, Pujols .299. Beltran had a higher OBP (.385 to .366), was close in slugging (.525 to .541) and had a similar WAR (4.7 to 5.1).
According to reports, Beltran will play right field for the Cardinals until Allen Craig -- whose exact return date is up in the air after knee surgery -- returns and will shift to center to replace Jon Jay once Craig returns. Beltran represents a potentially huge upgrade on Craig and/or Jay. Beltran was one of the best defensive outfielders in the majors in his first three seasons with the Mets (2006-0. His 44 defensive runs saved were the second most among all outfielders. Since then, though, he has been just about league average.
Playing in right field for the first time in his career last season, Beltran struggled on routine balls hit into his "fielding zone". He converted just 90.6 percent of balls hit into his zone into outs. Among 29 right fielders who played at least 500 innings last year, that ranked 22nd.
• We have a reasonable sample of completed $100 million contracts to compare to Beltran's now-completed $100 million contract. Not only does Beltran look pretty good relative to the contract he signed but he also comes out looking quite strong relative to other $100 million contracts. We know how much each player was paid in the course of the contract, and we know the wins above replacement each player accumulated in the same span. Consequently, we can figure out how many dollars-per-win each player cost during the contract and, thus, which contracts provided the best and worst value. Note: If a player was traded midcontract, the original value of the contract remained intact for this analysis.
[h4]One Hundred Million Club[/h4]
Dollars spent per win above replacement in completed $100 million contracts, through 2011:
[th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Contract[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][th=""]$/WAR[/th]
• As you can see, Beltran's return on investment ranks as the third best fully completed $100M-plus contract, behind only the steal the St. Louis Cardinals got on Pujols' deal and Alex Rodriguez's record-breaking (at the time) contract.
• Beltran is the third high-profile corner outfielder free agent to come off the board, following Josh Willingham's signing with Minnesota and Michael Cuddyer's leaving the Twins to sign with Colorado. Despite Beltran being both the oldest and considered to be the least durable, his average annual value exceeds that of the contracts received by his counterparts. Cuddyer got $10.5M a year, Willingham $7M per year.
[+] Enlarge
Greg Fiume/Getty ImagesMike Rizzo and Davey Johnson don't appear to be in the mood to wait.
Within minutes, he did get word of the deal, and, assuming that Gonzalez is able to pass his physical -- and part of the attraction of trading for the 26-year-old lefty is that he has a virtually pristine medical history -- he will join a rotation that already has Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg. Hitters will go into a series against Washington knowing they will be in for extremely difficult at-bats, facing guys with nasty stuff.
Gonzalez had some control problems last year, walking 91 in 202 innings for Oakland, but he limited the damage against him, holding opponents to a .336 slugging percentage -- seventh-best in the big leagues -- meaning few hitters were taking comfortable swings against him. And Gonzalez now shifts to the easier league, where he can work through some jams by taking advantage of the presence of the pitcher's spot in the lineup.
In Strasburg's 92 innings in the big leagues, opposing hitters have an OPS of .547. Against Zimmermann, hitters posted a .671 OPS. The Nationals might have some more growing to do, as Strasburg becomes more durable and increases his innings total and as Bryce Harper eventually ascends to the big leagues. But they already will be a dangerous team with Gonzalez anchoring their rotation.
They paid heavily for Gonzalez, according to rival scouts. Oakland never got deeply into talks with Cincinnati about Gonzalez, but the Athletics would not have traded the lefty to Cincinnati for the package the Reds gave up for Mat Latos; the A's feel as if they got more from the Nationals, especially after Washington agreed on Thursday morning to include Tom Milone and Brad Peacock in the deal. Peacock went 15-3 with a 2.39 ERA in 2011, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, and a talent evaluator who saw him in the summer said the right-hander reminded him of Brad Radke -- because of his command and because of his feel for pitching. In two years, the evaluator believes, it's possible that Peacock will be a better pitcher than Gonzalez.
A.J. Cole, 19, was drafted in the fourth round in 2010, and he had a good season in Class A, striking out 108 battings in 89 innings for Hagerstown. And Derek Norris, a 22-year-old catcher, who was drafted by Washington in the fourth round in 2007, had a .367 on-base percentage in Double-A this past year, with 20 homers.
You wonder whether the trade for Norris eventually will lead to the trade of Kurt Suzuki, who is signed through the 2013 season -- with an option for 2014 -- for a total of $12.1 million. Oakland is clearly loading up on players who will be around in 2014 and 2015, when the Athletics hope to be in a new ballpark in San Jose. Suzuki is 28 years old, and although he is coming off a year in which he hit .237, there will be interest in the veteran at a time when catching is scarce.
• The reaction in the Bay Area to the Oakland trade was strong, and angry, with frustrated fans asking when the Athletics will stop turning over players and start trying to win. It's evident from the actions of owner Lew Wolff and general manager Billy Beane that, with the current stadium situation, the Athletics can't win -- at least not until the club moves into a ballpark that will help generate more revenue and compete with the Angels and Rangers.
The Athletics are probably going to be awful in 2012 and may well lose more games than any other team in the majors, and some fans might not bother showing up anymore. But it's not as if they've been showing up anyway; even when Oakland won regularly a decade ago, the team drew little more than 2 million fans -- and the Athletics haven't hit 2 million in attendance since 2005.
The migration of Oakland starters continued, writes Susan Slusser. The trade for Gonzalez will renew speculation that the Nationals are in position to make a hard run at Prince Fielder, Dave Sheinin writes within this story -- the reason being that Washington is spending relative pennies on its rotation.
[h3]The Beltran deal[/h3]
• The Cardinals wrapped up their negotiations with Carlos Beltran, who is being projected as a No. 2 hitter for St. Louis. The Indians were among the teams Beltran turned down.
Warning: A small sample alert. In his career, Carlos Beltran has hit .340, with a 1.088 OPS, at the new Busch Stadium, with eight extra-base hits in 54 plate appearances.
From Justin Havens, Katie Sharp and Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Information, some stuff on Beltran:
Although he's no longer a borderline MVP candidate, Beltran's track record of productivity can be matched by few in the National League since 2005. Beltran ranks sixth in the NL among position players in WAR (wins above replacement) in that span. Consider his most wins above replacement ranking among NL position players since the start of the 2005 season:
Albert Pujols: 55.7
Chase Utley: 48.6
David Wright: 36.8
Matt Holliday: 35.2
Chipper Jones: 32.3
Carlos Beltran: 32.2
Besides his offensive and defensive skills, Beltran has a history of excelling in the postseason. No player in MLB history has a higher OPS in the postseason than Beltran (minimum 75 PA):
Carlos Beltran: 1.302
Babe Ruth: 1.211
Lou Gehrig: 1.208
Last season was the first since 2008 in which Beltran played at least 100 games. Although he has missed significant time in two of the past three seasons, Beltran, even at age 34, still has been a highly productive player when healthy. If you averaged him over a 162-game season, he'd bat .298 with a .8881 OPS, 22 HRs and 90 RBIs.
With Beltran joining the Cardinals, St. Louis has the two best offensive switch-hitters in the majors from last season in OPS:
Lance Berkman: .959
Carlos Beltran: .910
Jose Reyes: .877
Victor Martinez: .850
Shane Victorino: .847
Clearly, it would be aggressive to suggest that Beltran will fill the hole created by Albert Pujols' departure. However, when you look at how productive they were in 2011 alone, it's much closer than one might think. Beltran hit .300, Pujols .299. Beltran had a higher OBP (.385 to .366), was close in slugging (.525 to .541) and had a similar WAR (4.7 to 5.1).
According to reports, Beltran will play right field for the Cardinals until Allen Craig -- whose exact return date is up in the air after knee surgery -- returns and will shift to center to replace Jon Jay once Craig returns. Beltran represents a potentially huge upgrade on Craig and/or Jay. Beltran was one of the best defensive outfielders in the majors in his first three seasons with the Mets (2006-0
. His 44 defensive runs saved were the second most among all outfielders. Since then, though, he has been just about league average.Playing in right field for the first time in his career last season, Beltran struggled on routine balls hit into his "fielding zone". He converted just 90.6 percent of balls hit into his zone into outs. Among 29 right fielders who played at least 500 innings last year, that ranked 22nd.
• We have a reasonable sample of completed $100 million contracts to compare to Beltran's now-completed $100 million contract. Not only does Beltran look pretty good relative to the contract he signed but he also comes out looking quite strong relative to other $100 million contracts. We know how much each player was paid in the course of the contract, and we know the wins above replacement each player accumulated in the same span. Consequently, we can figure out how many dollars-per-win each player cost during the contract and, thus, which contracts provided the best and worst value. Note: If a player was traded midcontract, the original value of the contract remained intact for this analysis.
[h4]One Hundred Million Club[/h4]
Dollars spent per win above replacement in completed $100 million contracts, through 2011:
| Albert Pujols | 7-year/$100M | 59.0 | $1.70M |
| Alex Rodriguez | 10-year/$252M | 71.6 | $3.52M |
| Carlos Beltran | 7-year/$119M | 32.2 | $3.70M |
| Derek Jeter | 10-year/$189M | 48.0 | $3.94M |
| Kevin Brown | 7-year/$105M | 26.2 | $4.01M |
| Todd Helton | 9-year/$141.5M | 32.9 | $4.30M |
| Manny Ramirez | 8-year/$160M | 34.2 | $4.68M |
| Jason Giambi | 7-year/$120M | 21.9 | $5.48M |
| Ken Griffey, Jr | 9-year/$116.5M | 11.7 | $9.96M |
| Mike Hampton | 8-year/$121M | 10.7 | $11.31M |
• As you can see, Beltran's return on investment ranks as the third best fully completed $100M-plus contract, behind only the steal the St. Louis Cardinals got on Pujols' deal and Alex Rodriguez's record-breaking (at the time) contract.
• Beltran is the third high-profile corner outfielder free agent to come off the board, following Josh Willingham's signing with Minnesota and Michael Cuddyer's leaving the Twins to sign with Colorado. Despite Beltran being both the oldest and considered to be the least durable, his average annual value exceeds that of the contracts received by his counterparts. Cuddyer got $10.5M a year, Willingham $7M per year.
A's add top prospects.
Spoiler [+]
The Washington Nationals made it clear they want to try and win sooner rather than later by trading four prospects (right-handers Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole, left-hander Tom Milone and catcher Derek Norris) to the Oakland Athletics for left-hander Gio Gonzalez.
The Nationals get some starting rotation depth, but at a pretty significant cost in prospects, pinned to the hope that Gonzalez' moderate success these last two years wasn't just a function of him playing his home games in Oakland's pitcher-friendly park. The A's, on the other hand, get a substantial reward for taking in Gonzalez -- who struggled with two other organizations -- and building up his value beyond what I think it would have become in most other ballparks.
Washington has its ace in Stephen Strasburg and a near-ace behind him in Jordan Zimmermann, with some pitching coming up through its system to fill out the rotation in the coming years, so I'm not sure why they'd deal for Gonzalez at this point unless they believe he's a lot better than I think he is.
He has racked up strikeouts the last few years despite below-average command and control that have led to high walk totals, and would likely have led to higher ERAs but for a great ballpark and Oakland's generally strong defenses. The 26-year-old has always had questions about his on-field makeup, particularly his ability to respond to adversity on the mound, something that I'm told is still a concern with him going forward. What Gio does bring is stuff. He'll show you a grade-55 fastball, a big-breaking curveball, and a fringe-average changeup, but not the command to get maximum results from his repertoire. I did think if he was traded to the wrong environment, like Yankee Stadium, he had disaster potential, but in Washington he's more likely to maintain some value (say, 2-2.5 wins above replacement) while leaving the club frustrated that he's not better.
Oakland gets a future ace, a starting catcher, a strong reliever who might be a back-end starter, and an up-and-down arm. Cole is the prize here, a potential No. 1 starter who ranked 36th on my midseason top prospects update and was the No. 2 prospect in Washington's system behind Bryce Harper.
Cole is now Oakland's top prospect, sitting in the mid-90s with much better fastball command than he showed as an amateur. He acquired a reputation in high school for disinterest on the mound and fell to the fourth round of the 2010 draft, but he was a new man this year and many scouts felt in hindsight he should have gone in the first round. He's primarily fastball-slider now and needs to improve his changeup (and just use it more), as he had a big platoon split at low Class A Hagerstown. He turns 20 next month and is about two full years away from the majors.
Norris broke his wrist following the 2009 season and has struggled to hit for average the last two years, but his secondary skills remain intact and he has plenty of arm to add value on defense. The 22-year-old has a sound swing with good hip rotation for average or slightly better pull power, and his eye at the plate has always been outstanding. So even if he hits .240 in the majors, he'll be a valuable offensive catcher. Behind the dish, Norris is a fair receiver but has arm strength with sub-2.00 pop times (throwing to second base), so he should continue to control the running game as he has in the minors, nailing 41 percent of runners over the last four seasons.
Peacock, 23, is a 6-foot right-hander with a lot of effort in his delivery, but he brings the heat with above-average velocity as a starter that would be plus out of the pen. His curve and change are both fringy, and between the effort in his delivery and lack of plane on his fastball (making him fly ball-prone), I think he's best suited for the pen. Milone, 24, is a finesse lefty with a below-average fastball and no out pitch; he might survive as an emergency guy in a big ballpark like Oakland's, but they can and will do better for the back of their rotation.
The Nationals get some starting rotation depth, but at a pretty significant cost in prospects, pinned to the hope that Gonzalez' moderate success these last two years wasn't just a function of him playing his home games in Oakland's pitcher-friendly park. The A's, on the other hand, get a substantial reward for taking in Gonzalez -- who struggled with two other organizations -- and building up his value beyond what I think it would have become in most other ballparks.
Washington has its ace in Stephen Strasburg and a near-ace behind him in Jordan Zimmermann, with some pitching coming up through its system to fill out the rotation in the coming years, so I'm not sure why they'd deal for Gonzalez at this point unless they believe he's a lot better than I think he is.
He has racked up strikeouts the last few years despite below-average command and control that have led to high walk totals, and would likely have led to higher ERAs but for a great ballpark and Oakland's generally strong defenses. The 26-year-old has always had questions about his on-field makeup, particularly his ability to respond to adversity on the mound, something that I'm told is still a concern with him going forward. What Gio does bring is stuff. He'll show you a grade-55 fastball, a big-breaking curveball, and a fringe-average changeup, but not the command to get maximum results from his repertoire. I did think if he was traded to the wrong environment, like Yankee Stadium, he had disaster potential, but in Washington he's more likely to maintain some value (say, 2-2.5 wins above replacement) while leaving the club frustrated that he's not better.
Oakland gets a future ace, a starting catcher, a strong reliever who might be a back-end starter, and an up-and-down arm. Cole is the prize here, a potential No. 1 starter who ranked 36th on my midseason top prospects update and was the No. 2 prospect in Washington's system behind Bryce Harper.
Cole is now Oakland's top prospect, sitting in the mid-90s with much better fastball command than he showed as an amateur. He acquired a reputation in high school for disinterest on the mound and fell to the fourth round of the 2010 draft, but he was a new man this year and many scouts felt in hindsight he should have gone in the first round. He's primarily fastball-slider now and needs to improve his changeup (and just use it more), as he had a big platoon split at low Class A Hagerstown. He turns 20 next month and is about two full years away from the majors.
Norris broke his wrist following the 2009 season and has struggled to hit for average the last two years, but his secondary skills remain intact and he has plenty of arm to add value on defense. The 22-year-old has a sound swing with good hip rotation for average or slightly better pull power, and his eye at the plate has always been outstanding. So even if he hits .240 in the majors, he'll be a valuable offensive catcher. Behind the dish, Norris is a fair receiver but has arm strength with sub-2.00 pop times (throwing to second base), so he should continue to control the running game as he has in the minors, nailing 41 percent of runners over the last four seasons.
Peacock, 23, is a 6-foot right-hander with a lot of effort in his delivery, but he brings the heat with above-average velocity as a starter that would be plus out of the pen. His curve and change are both fringy, and between the effort in his delivery and lack of plane on his fastball (making him fly ball-prone), I think he's best suited for the pen. Milone, 24, is a finesse lefty with a below-average fastball and no out pitch; he might survive as an emergency guy in a big ballpark like Oakland's, but they can and will do better for the back of their rotation.
Bernie in the Hall.
Spoiler [+]
In a couple of weeks, the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce its newest members (if any). As Jim Caple writes today, this year's class is not particularly strong, and there is a lot of talk that not a single member of it will ever be enshrined in Cooperstown. That would be a mistake. One of our generation's best center fielders, Bernie Williams, is a member of the 2012 group, and he is every bit deserving of a spot in the Hall.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the advantage a player receives from playing for the New York Yankees, in Hall of Fame balloting, tends to be fairly insignificant. There are a lot of Yankees, especially from the first half of the century, in the Hall of Fame, but that's hardly surprising considering how many games those teams won. Playing in pinstripes didn't keep Willie Randolph (12th among second basemen in wins above replacement) or Graig Nettles (10th among third basemen in WAR) from getting tossed off the ballot in perfunctory fashion. Phil Rizzuto probably was a mistake by the veterans committee, but it has made strange inductions all over the place. Williams looks to be the latest star to get limited consideration by the Hall of Fame.
Given a cursory glance, Williams' career numbers don't look all that impressive. He hit 30 home runs in a season only once and failed to get to 300 for his career. And his 2,336 hits and .297 batting average aren't usually numbers that scream legend. Even his 47.3 career WAR isn't an overwhelming number, but it is more than those of players taken much more seriously, such as Jack Morris and Jim Rice, who was inducted into Cooperstown in 2009.
However, greatness isn't necessarily simply a function of career length. Some stars shine a long time, but some shine brighter. Historically, the Hall of Fame has rewarded not just those with long, very good careers, but also those who for a slice of time displayed real greatness, Hack Wilson being a prime example among center fielders.
[h4]Hall Pass[/h4]
If you look at five-year peak in terms of wins above replacement, Bernie Williams stacks up very well against the 17 center fielders in the Hall of Fame.
[th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Peak WAR[/th]
During his peak years, from 1994 to 2002, Williams was one of the best players in the game, hitting .319/.404/.525 (BA/OBP/SLG), making five All-Star teams and amassing 44 WAR by baseball-reference.com's reckoning. For a decade, Williams, while playing a position at which sluggers are hard to come by, hit like a star first baseman would. While Gold Gloves can be greatly overrated, Williams' winning four of them during that period certainly can't hurt his case for being a major superstar.
There are 17 players in the Hall of Fame who were primarily center fielders during their careers and inducted for their play in Major League Baseball. For each of these 17 players, I took their five best WAR seasons and compared them to Williams. For Williams, I used his zone rating numbers, as they are the most detailed defensive statistic available for the time period in question.
How does Williams fare? Quite well actually, with a peak that ranks eighth of the 17 Hall of Fame center fielders (see table). Williams, at his best, didn't touch Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays, but if the Hall of Fame consisted only of players such as them, there would be maybe 20 players in the Hall. Incidentally, Dale Murphy fares just as well; I'd put him in the Hall, too, but that's an argument for another day.
There's also the issue of Williams' postseason play. While the expanded playoff format gave Williams a lot more opportunities to rack up stats, nobody can doubt that he made the most of them, hitting .275/.371/.480 with 22 homers in 545 plate appearances. Even if you consider postseason play no more important than a regular-season game -- a difficult proposition, considering the desire every team and every fan has to win the World Series -- that's yet another star season tacked onto his résumé.
What will it take to get Williams into the Hall of Fame? At this point, he probably needs a miracle, such as a drastic change in how the Hall of Fame inducts players. It's unfortunate, too, because Williams was a better player than many Cooperstown inductees and deserves his own plaque.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the advantage a player receives from playing for the New York Yankees, in Hall of Fame balloting, tends to be fairly insignificant. There are a lot of Yankees, especially from the first half of the century, in the Hall of Fame, but that's hardly surprising considering how many games those teams won. Playing in pinstripes didn't keep Willie Randolph (12th among second basemen in wins above replacement) or Graig Nettles (10th among third basemen in WAR) from getting tossed off the ballot in perfunctory fashion. Phil Rizzuto probably was a mistake by the veterans committee, but it has made strange inductions all over the place. Williams looks to be the latest star to get limited consideration by the Hall of Fame.
Given a cursory glance, Williams' career numbers don't look all that impressive. He hit 30 home runs in a season only once and failed to get to 300 for his career. And his 2,336 hits and .297 batting average aren't usually numbers that scream legend. Even his 47.3 career WAR isn't an overwhelming number, but it is more than those of players taken much more seriously, such as Jack Morris and Jim Rice, who was inducted into Cooperstown in 2009.
However, greatness isn't necessarily simply a function of career length. Some stars shine a long time, but some shine brighter. Historically, the Hall of Fame has rewarded not just those with long, very good careers, but also those who for a slice of time displayed real greatness, Hack Wilson being a prime example among center fielders.
[h4]Hall Pass[/h4]
If you look at five-year peak in terms of wins above replacement, Bernie Williams stacks up very well against the 17 center fielders in the Hall of Fame.
| Mickey Mantle | 56.6 |
| Ty Cobb | 56.0 |
| Willie Mays | 52.4 |
| Tris Speaker | 48.1 |
| Joe DiMaggio | 42.0 |
| Duke Snider | 39.4 |
| Billy Hamilton | 35.3 |
| Bernie Williams | 30.8 |
| Richie Ashburn | 30.7 |
| Hack Wilson | 30.2 |
| Larry Doby | 29.9 |
| Earl Averill | 28.3 |
| Earle Combs | 28.0 |
| Kirby Puckett | 27.6 |
| Hugh Duffy | 27.5 |
| Edd Roush | 26.2 |
| Max Carey | 23.8 |
| Lloyd Waner | 17.0 |
During his peak years, from 1994 to 2002, Williams was one of the best players in the game, hitting .319/.404/.525 (BA/OBP/SLG), making five All-Star teams and amassing 44 WAR by baseball-reference.com's reckoning. For a decade, Williams, while playing a position at which sluggers are hard to come by, hit like a star first baseman would. While Gold Gloves can be greatly overrated, Williams' winning four of them during that period certainly can't hurt his case for being a major superstar.
There are 17 players in the Hall of Fame who were primarily center fielders during their careers and inducted for their play in Major League Baseball. For each of these 17 players, I took their five best WAR seasons and compared them to Williams. For Williams, I used his zone rating numbers, as they are the most detailed defensive statistic available for the time period in question.
How does Williams fare? Quite well actually, with a peak that ranks eighth of the 17 Hall of Fame center fielders (see table). Williams, at his best, didn't touch Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays, but if the Hall of Fame consisted only of players such as them, there would be maybe 20 players in the Hall. Incidentally, Dale Murphy fares just as well; I'd put him in the Hall, too, but that's an argument for another day.
There's also the issue of Williams' postseason play. While the expanded playoff format gave Williams a lot more opportunities to rack up stats, nobody can doubt that he made the most of them, hitting .275/.371/.480 with 22 homers in 545 plate appearances. Even if you consider postseason play no more important than a regular-season game -- a difficult proposition, considering the desire every team and every fan has to win the World Series -- that's yet another star season tacked onto his résumé.
What will it take to get Williams into the Hall of Fame? At this point, he probably needs a miracle, such as a drastic change in how the Hall of Fame inducts players. It's unfortunate, too, because Williams was a better player than many Cooperstown inductees and deserves his own plaque.
New parks, new numbers.
Spoiler [+]
For Edinson Volquez, Jason Kubel, and Travis Wood, Christmas came a few days early this year. While each struggled through the 2011 season, all of them have received a fresh start with a new organization, and perhaps more importantly, all three have traded in home ballparks that were terrible fits for their individual skills in exchange for environments that should prove far more friendly.
Perhaps no one is going to make a larger upgrade in surroundings this winter than Volquez, who is moving from a bandbox in Cincinnati to the pitcher's paradise that is San Diego. In fact, for a pitcher whose primary problem last year was allowing home runs, it's hard to find a better upgrade than moving from Great American Ballpark to Petco Park. For comparison, there were 209 home runs hit in Cincinnati last year -- third most in baseball -- while just 100 were hit in San Diego, the second lowest total of any park.
This change in location should produce a significant benefit for Volquez, who saw 20.7 percent of his fly balls go for home runs in 2011, the highest total of any pitcher who threw 100 or more innings last year. For contrast, San Diego's pitchers posted a HR/FB rate of 9.0 percent overall, and just 7.1 percent while pitching in the friendly confines of their home ballpark. Even with his command problems, Petco should neutralize Volquez's struggles with home runs, and the new ballpark may allow him to appear like he's finally figured out how to harness his stuff.
Like Volquez, Wood is also escaping from Cincinnati, though his landing spot in Chicago isn't quite as friendly to pitchers. However, Wrigley Field is predominantly friendly to left-handed home run hitters, and is only just a tick above average for right-handed batters who pull the ball out to left field. As a soft-tossing left-handed fly ball pitcher, these are the types of hitters who most often give Wood trouble. In fact, 17 of the 19 home runs he's allowed in his career have been to right-handed hitters -- the guys who get the most benefit from being able to pull the ball over the short left field fence in Cincinnati.
It's not just pitchers leaving Ohio who are going to be celebrating their new digs next season. When Kubel accepted a two-year, $15 million contract from the Arizona Diamondbacks, he also gave himself a very nice opportunity to see his numbers increase next season. While the Metrodome was kind to Kubel (and all other left-handed hitters), his numbers in Minnesota plummeted with the opening of Target Field. After hitting .294/.346/.495 at the Twins old digs, he's managed just a .254/.321/.403 mark in two seasons at their new ballpark, launching just 12 home runs in 448 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, left-handed power hitters thrive in the desert, hitting 14 percent more home runs at Chase Field than in an average ballpark. While the warm air leads to more home runs, the park's size also allows it to be generous on both doubles and triples as well, making it one of the best places to hit in baseball. Kubel will be trading in a park that is among the toughest in the sport on left-handed hitters for one that is among the most beneficial. Adjust your fantasy rankings accordingly.
Those three aren't the only ones who could really use a change of scenery this winter, however. With the Texas Rangers acquiring the rights to Yu Darvish, they are likely to have six starting pitchers for just five spots, and speculation has primarily focused on the team moving Alexi Ogando back to the bullpen or trading Matt Harrison. However, the player who could perhaps benefit most from leaving Texas is Colby Lewis.
Lewis has been a valuable asset for the Rangers since returning from Japan, but last year, he didn't exactly get along well with Texas' home ballpark. An extreme fly ball pitcher, Lewis saw 15.7 percent of his fly balls go over the fences in Arlington, leading to an American League leading 22 home runs allowed while pitching in his home ballpark. Due to these long ball problems, his home ERA was 5.54, two full runs higher than the 3.43 mark he posted on the road.
While Lewis is still a bargain in the final year of his contract -- he'll earn just $3.25 million in 2012 -- the Rangers could likely get a decent return for him, and his style of pitching doesn't really fit their environment anyway. Of all their starters, he's the one with the least amount of long-term value and the one who would benefit the most from pitching elsewhere next year.
If Lewis is on Santa's nice list, perhaps the Rangers will find him a new home next year as well.
Perhaps no one is going to make a larger upgrade in surroundings this winter than Volquez, who is moving from a bandbox in Cincinnati to the pitcher's paradise that is San Diego. In fact, for a pitcher whose primary problem last year was allowing home runs, it's hard to find a better upgrade than moving from Great American Ballpark to Petco Park. For comparison, there were 209 home runs hit in Cincinnati last year -- third most in baseball -- while just 100 were hit in San Diego, the second lowest total of any park.
This change in location should produce a significant benefit for Volquez, who saw 20.7 percent of his fly balls go for home runs in 2011, the highest total of any pitcher who threw 100 or more innings last year. For contrast, San Diego's pitchers posted a HR/FB rate of 9.0 percent overall, and just 7.1 percent while pitching in the friendly confines of their home ballpark. Even with his command problems, Petco should neutralize Volquez's struggles with home runs, and the new ballpark may allow him to appear like he's finally figured out how to harness his stuff.
Like Volquez, Wood is also escaping from Cincinnati, though his landing spot in Chicago isn't quite as friendly to pitchers. However, Wrigley Field is predominantly friendly to left-handed home run hitters, and is only just a tick above average for right-handed batters who pull the ball out to left field. As a soft-tossing left-handed fly ball pitcher, these are the types of hitters who most often give Wood trouble. In fact, 17 of the 19 home runs he's allowed in his career have been to right-handed hitters -- the guys who get the most benefit from being able to pull the ball over the short left field fence in Cincinnati.
It's not just pitchers leaving Ohio who are going to be celebrating their new digs next season. When Kubel accepted a two-year, $15 million contract from the Arizona Diamondbacks, he also gave himself a very nice opportunity to see his numbers increase next season. While the Metrodome was kind to Kubel (and all other left-handed hitters), his numbers in Minnesota plummeted with the opening of Target Field. After hitting .294/.346/.495 at the Twins old digs, he's managed just a .254/.321/.403 mark in two seasons at their new ballpark, launching just 12 home runs in 448 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, left-handed power hitters thrive in the desert, hitting 14 percent more home runs at Chase Field than in an average ballpark. While the warm air leads to more home runs, the park's size also allows it to be generous on both doubles and triples as well, making it one of the best places to hit in baseball. Kubel will be trading in a park that is among the toughest in the sport on left-handed hitters for one that is among the most beneficial. Adjust your fantasy rankings accordingly.
Those three aren't the only ones who could really use a change of scenery this winter, however. With the Texas Rangers acquiring the rights to Yu Darvish, they are likely to have six starting pitchers for just five spots, and speculation has primarily focused on the team moving Alexi Ogando back to the bullpen or trading Matt Harrison. However, the player who could perhaps benefit most from leaving Texas is Colby Lewis.
Lewis has been a valuable asset for the Rangers since returning from Japan, but last year, he didn't exactly get along well with Texas' home ballpark. An extreme fly ball pitcher, Lewis saw 15.7 percent of his fly balls go over the fences in Arlington, leading to an American League leading 22 home runs allowed while pitching in his home ballpark. Due to these long ball problems, his home ERA was 5.54, two full runs higher than the 3.43 mark he posted on the road.
While Lewis is still a bargain in the final year of his contract -- he'll earn just $3.25 million in 2012 -- the Rangers could likely get a decent return for him, and his style of pitching doesn't really fit their environment anyway. Of all their starters, he's the one with the least amount of long-term value and the one who would benefit the most from pitching elsewhere next year.
If Lewis is on Santa's nice list, perhaps the Rangers will find him a new home next year as well.
The great Yu Darvish myth.
Spoiler [+]
You probably could operate a small nation with the number of work hours that big league executives have exhausted trying to figure out how to handle the bid process for Japanese players, a system that one AL official referred to last week as "weird."
AP Photo/Shizuo KambayashiHow badly did Texas pummel the competition in bidding for Yu Darvish? Maybe by a ton.
There's no way to know how much any other team has bid; no way to know whether your bid might be $30 million short, or just by a nickel. It's like playing poker without seeing your cards or knowing how much money is in the game. So club executives have argued for years about what the right numbers should be -- for a Daisuke Matsuzaka, for a Yu Darvish. When the Red Sox bid $51 million for Dice-K, they decided to tack on a few extra dollars, just in case -- hence their final bid of $51,111,111.11. Just in case the Yankees bid $51 million, the Red Sox wanted to have a bid with a tiebreaker built in.
Earlier this week, the Rangers -- who probably had put in more time evaluating and scouting Darvish than any other team -- posted a bid of $51.7 million.
Since then, there have been reports that the Toronto Blue Jays barely missed out, with a bid of little over $50 million, and knowing how carefully general managers and their assistants think about this stuff, my first thought was: no way.
There's no way Toronto made a bid at those numbers. And the educated guess here is that Texas blew everybody else out of the water, including the Blue Jays.
Going into the Darvish bidding, executives with all teams understood that for a high-end talent like a Matsuzaka, or a Darvish, the bar had been set by the Red Sox offer. If anyone intended to be aggressive, to make sure they would win, they would probably need to place a beyond north of Boston's bid. It's logical.
So it would have been completely illogical for the Jays to bid $50 million. That would be like the Marlins tendering an offer of $100 million to Albert Pujols at the winter meetings, well below what St. Louis had offered last winter, or if the Yankees had offered C.J. Wilson three years and $45 million. If the Blue Jays were jacked up and flush with money and were going all out to win, they would have bid $51.5 million, or $55 million, or $60 million.
But they didn't. And it's probably because the front office is not in a position to do that.
Alex Anthopoulos, the Blue Jays' general manager, has a reputation among his peers for being earnest, for being a straight shooter. With reporters, he has demonstrated that he will not answer a question rather than to attempting deceive. He is always careful with his words, and after the Blue Jays traded prospect Nestor Molina for closer Sergio Santos during the winter meetings, Anthopoulos made references to working within payroll parameters.
Think about that for a moment.
This offseason has been absolutely flush with a wide range of free-agent closers, from high-end relievers like Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon to veterans who are less costly, from Joe Nathan to Francisco Cordero to Brad Lidge. And instead, Anthopoulos took the cheapest route, trading Molina for Santos, who makes very little money and is under control for years.
If Anthopoulos had a lot of money to spend, he could have easily grabbed one of the free-agent relievers. On Tuesday morning, Anthopoulos was on a conference call again with reporters, after the Darvish winner was announced. And again, he used words that are typically code for limited budget, like "parameters" and "creative," and he mentioned that since the winter meetings -- when he made the modest financial investment in Santos -- nothing had changed since the winter meetings -- a time frame in which he posted a bid on Darvish.
Within this answer, Anthopoulos addressed the question of how much the Jays bid on Darvish:
Scouts with other teams went into the Darvish bidding thinking that Texas and Toronto had the most enthusiasm about the right-hander from Japan. But that doesn't mean the Blue Jays came close to winning the bidding -- and in fact, the guess here is that they were closer to the Yankees' bid, of around $20 million, than to the Rangers' bid of $51.7 million.
---
Elsewhere, Jeff Blair also came away from Anthopoulos' conference call thinking that the Jays are not operating with as much money as speculation suggests.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• It's possible that a team could emerge in the Prince Fielder bidding, as the Angels did for Albert Pujols. But for now, it appears that several teams are waiting for the price tag to come down. Some executives say Fielder is looking for a 10-year deal, but the interest level for some clubs is closer to a six-year deal.
The Orioles aren't ruling out Fielder, but they probably aren't in big, either, writes Peter Schmuck.
• The Indians, who tried but failed to land Josh Willingham, are in the bidding for Carlos Beltran, sources say.
• Rival executives say the asking price for John Danks was extraordinarily high, equivalent to what the Rockies had asked for Ubaldo Jimenez. And when the White Sox weren't able to extricate that from any of the interested the teams, they decided, in the end, to invest long-term in Danks. Maybe they looked at the upcoming free-agent markets and figured that, inevitably, they would be looking for a pitcher just like Danks -- and wouldn't be able to find one, unless they joined the frenzied bidding that will probably swirl around Cole Hamels next fall.
But it's hard to square the Danks signing with Chicago's decision to move closer Sergio Santos at the winter meetings, where GM Ken Williams said that the rebuilding had begun.
With Danks off the board, the best available starters in the trade market are now Gio Gonzalez and Matt Garza, with Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis also in the discussions.
Second-tier free-agent starters won't help the Jays, writes Richard Griffin.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Royals signed a lefty reliever.
2. The Padres got a reliever.
3. Bobby Valentine's coaching staff is near completion.
4. The Twins are close to adding a starter.
5. The Braves tried to land Adam Jones.
6. The Nationals' ownership is starting to backslide, writes Thomas Boswell.
7. The Reds and Cubs finished the Sean Marshall/Travis Wood trade.
8. Andruw Jones is talking with the Red Sox, writes Mark Feinsand.
9. The Rangers picked up a catcher.
10. The Indians signed an infielder.
11. The Brewers signed Cesar Izturis.
12. Francisco Cordero doesn't interest the Red Sox. This makes it more likely Cordero will go back to Cincinnati.
13. The Brewers -- masters of marketing momentum -- announced they have already sold a million tickets.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• The Bill Conlin allegations have left the Hall of Fame in a difficult position. From Andrew Keh's story:
It does feel like trashing Betancourt has become Internet sport, like everybody sitting in a lunch room making fun of the odd-looking kid with glasses. We get it; he's not as good as other players. But it's not as if Kansas City gave him a $60 million contract.
AP Photo/Shizuo KambayashiHow badly did Texas pummel the competition in bidding for Yu Darvish? Maybe by a ton.
There's no way to know how much any other team has bid; no way to know whether your bid might be $30 million short, or just by a nickel. It's like playing poker without seeing your cards or knowing how much money is in the game. So club executives have argued for years about what the right numbers should be -- for a Daisuke Matsuzaka, for a Yu Darvish. When the Red Sox bid $51 million for Dice-K, they decided to tack on a few extra dollars, just in case -- hence their final bid of $51,111,111.11. Just in case the Yankees bid $51 million, the Red Sox wanted to have a bid with a tiebreaker built in.
Earlier this week, the Rangers -- who probably had put in more time evaluating and scouting Darvish than any other team -- posted a bid of $51.7 million.
Since then, there have been reports that the Toronto Blue Jays barely missed out, with a bid of little over $50 million, and knowing how carefully general managers and their assistants think about this stuff, my first thought was: no way.
There's no way Toronto made a bid at those numbers. And the educated guess here is that Texas blew everybody else out of the water, including the Blue Jays.
Going into the Darvish bidding, executives with all teams understood that for a high-end talent like a Matsuzaka, or a Darvish, the bar had been set by the Red Sox offer. If anyone intended to be aggressive, to make sure they would win, they would probably need to place a beyond north of Boston's bid. It's logical.
So it would have been completely illogical for the Jays to bid $50 million. That would be like the Marlins tendering an offer of $100 million to Albert Pujols at the winter meetings, well below what St. Louis had offered last winter, or if the Yankees had offered C.J. Wilson three years and $45 million. If the Blue Jays were jacked up and flush with money and were going all out to win, they would have bid $51.5 million, or $55 million, or $60 million.
But they didn't. And it's probably because the front office is not in a position to do that.
Alex Anthopoulos, the Blue Jays' general manager, has a reputation among his peers for being earnest, for being a straight shooter. With reporters, he has demonstrated that he will not answer a question rather than to attempting deceive. He is always careful with his words, and after the Blue Jays traded prospect Nestor Molina for closer Sergio Santos during the winter meetings, Anthopoulos made references to working within payroll parameters.
Think about that for a moment.
This offseason has been absolutely flush with a wide range of free-agent closers, from high-end relievers like Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon to veterans who are less costly, from Joe Nathan to Francisco Cordero to Brad Lidge. And instead, Anthopoulos took the cheapest route, trading Molina for Santos, who makes very little money and is under control for years.
If Anthopoulos had a lot of money to spend, he could have easily grabbed one of the free-agent relievers. On Tuesday morning, Anthopoulos was on a conference call again with reporters, after the Darvish winner was announced. And again, he used words that are typically code for limited budget, like "parameters" and "creative," and he mentioned that since the winter meetings -- when he made the modest financial investment in Santos -- nothing had changed since the winter meetings -- a time frame in which he posted a bid on Darvish.
Within this answer, Anthopoulos addressed the question of how much the Jays bid on Darvish:
- "I know [at the winter meetings] in Dallas we talked about payroll and parameters and balance, and … that means having to be creative. That doesn't mean our payroll isn't going up and so on, but I said it before: It's not a bottomless pit. I have what I have available, and I'm going to make that work, and we're going to try to put a competitive and world championship club on the field. We're operating in the offseason the way we have since the winter meetings. I know people have speculated that that isn't the case …
- "I think we have plenty. I think we have plenty to work with. We've been given a ton of money to sign players in the draft, we've been given a ton of money to bump up our staffing and so on. And again, is it a limitless amount of money? No. But do we have enough? Absolutely. Does it make us have to be a little more creative and look at other avenues and other ways of doing things? Sure, but that's fine, and it absolutely can be done. … We have plenty of resources, and I feel like we have enough creativity in the front office to make things work."
Scouts with other teams went into the Darvish bidding thinking that Texas and Toronto had the most enthusiasm about the right-hander from Japan. But that doesn't mean the Blue Jays came close to winning the bidding -- and in fact, the guess here is that they were closer to the Yankees' bid, of around $20 million, than to the Rangers' bid of $51.7 million.
---
Elsewhere, Jeff Blair also came away from Anthopoulos' conference call thinking that the Jays are not operating with as much money as speculation suggests.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• It's possible that a team could emerge in the Prince Fielder bidding, as the Angels did for Albert Pujols. But for now, it appears that several teams are waiting for the price tag to come down. Some executives say Fielder is looking for a 10-year deal, but the interest level for some clubs is closer to a six-year deal.
The Orioles aren't ruling out Fielder, but they probably aren't in big, either, writes Peter Schmuck.
• The Indians, who tried but failed to land Josh Willingham, are in the bidding for Carlos Beltran, sources say.
• Rival executives say the asking price for John Danks was extraordinarily high, equivalent to what the Rockies had asked for Ubaldo Jimenez. And when the White Sox weren't able to extricate that from any of the interested the teams, they decided, in the end, to invest long-term in Danks. Maybe they looked at the upcoming free-agent markets and figured that, inevitably, they would be looking for a pitcher just like Danks -- and wouldn't be able to find one, unless they joined the frenzied bidding that will probably swirl around Cole Hamels next fall.
But it's hard to square the Danks signing with Chicago's decision to move closer Sergio Santos at the winter meetings, where GM Ken Williams said that the rebuilding had begun.
With Danks off the board, the best available starters in the trade market are now Gio Gonzalez and Matt Garza, with Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis also in the discussions.
Second-tier free-agent starters won't help the Jays, writes Richard Griffin.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Royals signed a lefty reliever.
2. The Padres got a reliever.
3. Bobby Valentine's coaching staff is near completion.
4. The Twins are close to adding a starter.
5. The Braves tried to land Adam Jones.
6. The Nationals' ownership is starting to backslide, writes Thomas Boswell.
7. The Reds and Cubs finished the Sean Marshall/Travis Wood trade.
8. Andruw Jones is talking with the Red Sox, writes Mark Feinsand.
9. The Rangers picked up a catcher.
10. The Indians signed an infielder.
11. The Brewers signed Cesar Izturis.
12. Francisco Cordero doesn't interest the Red Sox. This makes it more likely Cordero will go back to Cincinnati.
13. The Brewers -- masters of marketing momentum -- announced they have already sold a million tickets.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• The Bill Conlin allegations have left the Hall of Fame in a difficult position. From Andrew Keh's story:
- Craig Muder, a spokesman for the Hall of Fame, said the organization would not comment on Conlin or his future inclusion in the exhibit, which is designed to remain until a new Spink recipient is installed next summer. Muder noted, though, that recipients of the Spink award were not actual members of the Hall.
Speaking generally, Muder said no person in any category had ever been removed from the Hall of Fame and that there was no mechanism in place to do so.
On Wednesday, though, some wondered whether such action might eventually be necessary.
Ross Newhan, a former columnist for the Los Angeles Times, was part of the three-person screening committee that nominated Conlin for the award early last year. Conlin was announced as the winner during the 2010 winter meetings and was presented with the award during the Hall of Fame induction ceremonies in July.
Newhan, who has known Conlin for more than 30 years, said he was stunned to read of the allegations, but emphasized that he was reserving judgment until more facts emerged.
But Newhan, who won the award in 2000, said that if the allegations were true, he would feel uneasy about allowing Conlin to keep the award and remain in the Hall.
"If he was guilty of molestation, then probably we should consider stripping him of the honor," Newhan said in an interview Wednesday. "What more abhorrent act is there, short of murder?"
It does feel like trashing Betancourt has become Internet sport, like everybody sitting in a lunch room making fun of the odd-looking kid with glasses. We get it; he's not as good as other players. But it's not as if Kansas City gave him a $60 million contract.
- Dec 17, 2003
- 9,530
- 91
Co-signs
*waits for delusional Reds fans to come in and post the contrary.*
- Dec 17, 2003
- 9,530
- 91
Co-signs
*waits for delusional Reds fans to come in and post the contrary.*
Eh, for some reason my post above has the Inception thing going on. Click on the spoiler and after the rumors are the spoilers for the rest of the articles.
Top 15 prospects: Boston Red Sox.
Top 15 prospects: Boston Red Sox.
Spoiler [+]
The Boston Red Sox top prospects list has undergone an upheaval over last season’s like no other. Only one player in the Top 10 (Ryan Lavarnway) appeared on the list a year ago, which accounts for an unprecedented amount of movement. The list lost just one prospect to graduation (Josh Reddick) while the other eight players either lost value or were surpassed by more promising talent. The good news for the system is that it still has a fair bit of depth and some of the players who stumbled in 2011 could rebuild their prospect value in ’12.
1. Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS
BORN: Dec. 1, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Given his young age, Bogaerts’ season was a massive success. He displayed an advanced approach that should lead to him hitting for average down the line and he has good bat speed, which generates above-average power. Defensively he plays a solid shortstop but he’s expected to slow down and shift over to third base before he reaches the Majors. An interesting side note: Bogaerts’ twin Jair Bogaert spent 2011 playing for Boston Dominican Summer League team (He hit .288 in 47 games).
YEAR IN REVIEW: Bogaerts played the 2011 season in low-A ball at the age of 18 – although he spent the first half of the year in extended spring training. He showed uncanny power for his age with an ISO rate of .249, as well as impressive patience (8.4 BB%). He still has rough edges in his game and struggles with breaking balls, which helped lead to a strikeout rate of 24%.
YEAR AHEAD: The infielder could spend 2012 in high-A ball as a teenager, if Boston wants to continue to be aggressive with him. He’ll look to curb his strikeouts while ironing out the rough edges in his game. If he keeps up this pace Bogaerts could be playing in the Majors by the time he’s 21 years old.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Bogaerts has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order threat with 30+ home runs a possibility. He should remain on the left side of the infield but it probably won’t be at shortstop. The Aruba native will be a fun prospect to watch in 2012 and I imagine Boston considers him virtually untouchable.
2. Will Middlebrooks, 3B
BORN: Sept. 9, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 5th round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Middlebrook entered 2011 as a sleeper and he exited the season as a top prospect. He began his pro career a little behind the eight ball because he was such a good pitcher in high school, as well as a talented football player. Now that he’s had time to acclimatize himself, Middlebrooks shows the ability to hit for both average and power, although his pitch selection and overall aggressiveness need work. Defensively, he’s a good fielder and has a strong arm.
YEAR IN REVIEW: The third baseman spent the year in double-A and hit .302 while also showing increased power with an ISO rate of .218. On the downside, his strikeouts remained high (24%) and his walk rate tied his career low mark of 5.3%. After slugging 23 home runs during the regular season he added four more in the Arizona Fall League (56 at-bats), although he hit just .250 and again struggled with Ks.
YEAR AHEAD: Middlebrooks received a brief taste – 56 at-bats – of triple-A in 2011 and he’ll return there in 2012. He could spend the entire year there with an eye on replacing the aging Kevin Youkilis for the ’13 season.
CAREER OUTLOOK: The former fifth-round pick looks like he’ll develop into at least an average offensive third baseman. If he can trim his strikeouts and maintain the increased power output then he has a chance to be an all-star at the hot corner.
3. Garin Cecchini, 3B
BORN: April 20, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 4th round, Louisiana HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: If you consider that Xander Bogaerts is likely headed for the hot corner down the road, Boston’s Top 3 prospects are all future third basemen. Cecchini displays an advanced approach for his age and projects to hit for both average and power. He also shows a solid defensive game at third. He likely would have been a first rounder in ’10 if he had not blown out his knee in high school, requiring major surgery. Cecchini’s younger brother Gavin Cecchini, a prep shortstop, could be a first round draft pick in 2012.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Playing against older competition in the New York Penn League, Cecchini more than held his own in 2011. He hit .298 and displayed gap power that resulted in 12 doubles and three homers in just 114 at-bats. He also walked just shy of 13% of the time – and struck out only 14% of the time.
YEAR AHEAD: Cecchini will most certainly move up to low-A in 2012 and could hit his way to high-A by mid-season. There is no reason for the organization to put any undue pressure on him , though, with fellow third base prospect Will Middlebrooks at triple-A.
CAREER OUTLOOK: When all is said and done, Cecchini could end up as a better third baseman than Middlebrooks, although both have considerable talent. The younger prospect still has a long way to climb, though, despite his impressive start to his pro career.
4. Blake Swihart, C
BORN: April 3, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (26th overall), New Mexico HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Signed away from the University of Texas for $2.5 million, Swihart is a promising offensive catcher in the Wil Myers mold. Like the top Royals prospect, this New Mexico native could move much more quickly through the system if he were to be moved to another position. Swihart shows promise behind the plate, thanks to his athleticism, but he’s only been catching for a few years – and rarely on a full-time basis. He’s a switch-hitter that shows above-average power and even the potential to hit for average.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Swihart received just six Rookie ball at-bats after signing and failed to record his first pro hit.
YEAR AHEAD: The catcher will likely stick in extended spring training to work on both his defense and his offense. Like catching, he’s fairly new to switch-hitting. If he remains behind the dish, Swihart will probably need four to five seasons in the minors.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Swihart has the potential to develop into an all-star catcher. He’ll obviously lose a little bit of value if he moves to third base or right field but his bat has a chance to be special. With no clear cut ‘catcher of the future’ in the system, Boston will be patient.
5. Matt Barnes, RHP
BORN: June 17, 1990
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (19th overall), U of Connecticut
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: There was some talk that Barnes could potentially be popped in the Top 10 during the 2011 draft so Boston was no doubt happy to land the Connecticut native with the 19th overall selection. The right-hander has a good pitcher’s frame with room to fill out even more. His fastball currently ranges from 91-97 mph and he also possesses a curveball, cutter and changeup.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Barnes did not pitch after signing. He had an outstanding junior year of college and pitched 116.2 innings, giving up just 71 hits and four home runs. His ERA dropped significantly over the past three seasons from 5.43 to 3.92 to 1.70.
YEAR AHEAD: Even though he has yet to pitch in a pro game, Barnes has shown enough to potential to begin 2012 in high-A ball. If his secondary stuff continues to develop he could reach the Majors within two to three years.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Barnes has the necessary ingredients to be a No. 2 or 3 starter at the Major League level. Once he firms up one of his secondary pitches into a plus pitch – most likely his curveball – he could really take off.
6. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP
BORN: Sept. 9, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 supplemental 1st round, Louisiana State U
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Ranaudo’s 2011 performance received mixed reviews. His numbers were solid but scouts were less enamored with him than expected. The right-hander struggled with injuries in college – including a stress fracture in his throwing elbow – and his stuff was not as good in his first pro season as it was in college. When he’s going well, Ranaudo throws 90-95 mph with a plus curveball and changeup. He fought his mechanics and command in his first pro season.
YEAR IN REVIEW: The right-hander began the year in low-A ball but was moved up to high-A after just 46 innings. Ranaudo pitched 81 innings at the senior level but he allowed two more hits per nine innings and his strikeout rate dropped from 9.78 to 7.44 K/9.
YEAR AHEAD: Ranaudo did not exactly dominate high-A ball but his FIP was decent at 3.95 (4.33 ERA) so he will probably open 2012 in double-A. He could spend the entire season there unless he suddenly becomes more consistent and his pitches become more crisp.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Even if he doesn’t become the No. 2 pitcher that some people predict, Ranaudo has the strong frame necessary to become a workhorse in the rotation as a No. 3 or 4 pitcher – assuming his elbow holds up. My gut feeling is that he’ll have a good – but not great – career in Boston.
7. Jackie Bradley, OF
BORN: April 19, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, South Carolina
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: With four selections before the second round during the 2011 draft, the Boston Red Sox organization acquired a lot of exciting talent and Bradley could end up being a true steal as the 40th overall pick. He slid after struggling on offense early in the college season and then he had wrist surgery. The South Carolina native is a plus defender with a plus arm. Although he’s struggled with his consistency as a hitter, Bradley has good bat speed and did not strike out much in his college career.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Bradley was healthy enough to play 10 pro games after signing with Boston, topping out at low-A Greenville. After hitting .368/.473/.587 in his sophomore season, the outfielder slumped to .247/.346/.432 in his junior year.
YEAR AHEAD: Bradley will probably open 2012 in low-A ball while working on becoming more consistent with the bat. If he can stay within himself and acknowledge his own strengths and weaknesses then he could see a lot of success and even reach high-A at some point in the year. Bradley should focus on the skills necessary to be a two-hole hitter.
CAREER OUTLOOK: At worst, Bradley should be an outstanding fourth outfielder or second-division starter. Because he brings so much to the table and has a lot of drive I fully expect him to get the most out of his abilities and improve significantly with the bat.
8. Ryan Lavarnway, C
BORN: Aug. 7, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 4 seas0ns
ACQUIRED: 2008 6th round, Yale University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 10th
SCOUTING REPORT: Lavarnway doesn’t have quite the offensive potential that New York’s Jesus Montero does but he’s in a similar situation as an offensive-minded catcher who may or may not be able to stick at the position. He’s shown enough defensively, though, to at least provide back-up duties at the position while also playing first base or acting as the DH. You can’t argue with Lavarnway’s offense. He hits for a solid average and has above-average power all over the field. He is not your typical grip-and-rip power hitter and is a smart baseball player (He’s a Yale Alum).
YEAR IN REVIEW: The catcher slugged 34 home runs over three levels (AA, AAA, MLB) in 2011 and hit .290 at the minor league level. He showed a patient approach (12.1 BB% at AAA) and struck out at a reasonable (but not great) rate for a power hitter. Lavarnway threw out 37% of base stealers while squatting behind the plate in the minors.
YEAR AHEAD: Lavarnway is probably ready for The Show but the return of DH David Ortiz could throw a wrench into the works. The catcher may have to bide his time at triple-A until an injury occurs to Ortiz or starting catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The club will want to carry a stronger defender as the back-up catcher, which is why veteran Kelly Shoppach was brought back.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Lavarnway has the potential to be a better offensive player than Saltalamacchia but he may not be any better defensively. It’s possible that he could end up replacing Ortiz as the full-time DH in 2013 but, either way, he should be an above-average hitter with 20+ home run potential.
9. Henry Owens, LHP
BORN: July 21, 1992
EXPERIENCE: Prep
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Owens is a tall (6’6
1. Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS
BORN: Dec. 1, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Given his young age, Bogaerts’ season was a massive success. He displayed an advanced approach that should lead to him hitting for average down the line and he has good bat speed, which generates above-average power. Defensively he plays a solid shortstop but he’s expected to slow down and shift over to third base before he reaches the Majors. An interesting side note: Bogaerts’ twin Jair Bogaert spent 2011 playing for Boston Dominican Summer League team (He hit .288 in 47 games).
YEAR IN REVIEW: Bogaerts played the 2011 season in low-A ball at the age of 18 – although he spent the first half of the year in extended spring training. He showed uncanny power for his age with an ISO rate of .249, as well as impressive patience (8.4 BB%). He still has rough edges in his game and struggles with breaking balls, which helped lead to a strikeout rate of 24%.
YEAR AHEAD: The infielder could spend 2012 in high-A ball as a teenager, if Boston wants to continue to be aggressive with him. He’ll look to curb his strikeouts while ironing out the rough edges in his game. If he keeps up this pace Bogaerts could be playing in the Majors by the time he’s 21 years old.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Bogaerts has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order threat with 30+ home runs a possibility. He should remain on the left side of the infield but it probably won’t be at shortstop. The Aruba native will be a fun prospect to watch in 2012 and I imagine Boston considers him virtually untouchable.
2. Will Middlebrooks, 3B
BORN: Sept. 9, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 5th round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Middlebrook entered 2011 as a sleeper and he exited the season as a top prospect. He began his pro career a little behind the eight ball because he was such a good pitcher in high school, as well as a talented football player. Now that he’s had time to acclimatize himself, Middlebrooks shows the ability to hit for both average and power, although his pitch selection and overall aggressiveness need work. Defensively, he’s a good fielder and has a strong arm.
YEAR IN REVIEW: The third baseman spent the year in double-A and hit .302 while also showing increased power with an ISO rate of .218. On the downside, his strikeouts remained high (24%) and his walk rate tied his career low mark of 5.3%. After slugging 23 home runs during the regular season he added four more in the Arizona Fall League (56 at-bats), although he hit just .250 and again struggled with Ks.
YEAR AHEAD: Middlebrooks received a brief taste – 56 at-bats – of triple-A in 2011 and he’ll return there in 2012. He could spend the entire year there with an eye on replacing the aging Kevin Youkilis for the ’13 season.
CAREER OUTLOOK: The former fifth-round pick looks like he’ll develop into at least an average offensive third baseman. If he can trim his strikeouts and maintain the increased power output then he has a chance to be an all-star at the hot corner.
3. Garin Cecchini, 3B
BORN: April 20, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 4th round, Louisiana HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: If you consider that Xander Bogaerts is likely headed for the hot corner down the road, Boston’s Top 3 prospects are all future third basemen. Cecchini displays an advanced approach for his age and projects to hit for both average and power. He also shows a solid defensive game at third. He likely would have been a first rounder in ’10 if he had not blown out his knee in high school, requiring major surgery. Cecchini’s younger brother Gavin Cecchini, a prep shortstop, could be a first round draft pick in 2012.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Playing against older competition in the New York Penn League, Cecchini more than held his own in 2011. He hit .298 and displayed gap power that resulted in 12 doubles and three homers in just 114 at-bats. He also walked just shy of 13% of the time – and struck out only 14% of the time.
YEAR AHEAD: Cecchini will most certainly move up to low-A in 2012 and could hit his way to high-A by mid-season. There is no reason for the organization to put any undue pressure on him , though, with fellow third base prospect Will Middlebrooks at triple-A.
CAREER OUTLOOK: When all is said and done, Cecchini could end up as a better third baseman than Middlebrooks, although both have considerable talent. The younger prospect still has a long way to climb, though, despite his impressive start to his pro career.
4. Blake Swihart, C
BORN: April 3, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (26th overall), New Mexico HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Signed away from the University of Texas for $2.5 million, Swihart is a promising offensive catcher in the Wil Myers mold. Like the top Royals prospect, this New Mexico native could move much more quickly through the system if he were to be moved to another position. Swihart shows promise behind the plate, thanks to his athleticism, but he’s only been catching for a few years – and rarely on a full-time basis. He’s a switch-hitter that shows above-average power and even the potential to hit for average.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Swihart received just six Rookie ball at-bats after signing and failed to record his first pro hit.
YEAR AHEAD: The catcher will likely stick in extended spring training to work on both his defense and his offense. Like catching, he’s fairly new to switch-hitting. If he remains behind the dish, Swihart will probably need four to five seasons in the minors.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Swihart has the potential to develop into an all-star catcher. He’ll obviously lose a little bit of value if he moves to third base or right field but his bat has a chance to be special. With no clear cut ‘catcher of the future’ in the system, Boston will be patient.
5. Matt Barnes, RHP
BORN: June 17, 1990
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (19th overall), U of Connecticut
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: There was some talk that Barnes could potentially be popped in the Top 10 during the 2011 draft so Boston was no doubt happy to land the Connecticut native with the 19th overall selection. The right-hander has a good pitcher’s frame with room to fill out even more. His fastball currently ranges from 91-97 mph and he also possesses a curveball, cutter and changeup.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Barnes did not pitch after signing. He had an outstanding junior year of college and pitched 116.2 innings, giving up just 71 hits and four home runs. His ERA dropped significantly over the past three seasons from 5.43 to 3.92 to 1.70.
YEAR AHEAD: Even though he has yet to pitch in a pro game, Barnes has shown enough to potential to begin 2012 in high-A ball. If his secondary stuff continues to develop he could reach the Majors within two to three years.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Barnes has the necessary ingredients to be a No. 2 or 3 starter at the Major League level. Once he firms up one of his secondary pitches into a plus pitch – most likely his curveball – he could really take off.
6. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP
BORN: Sept. 9, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 supplemental 1st round, Louisiana State U
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Ranaudo’s 2011 performance received mixed reviews. His numbers were solid but scouts were less enamored with him than expected. The right-hander struggled with injuries in college – including a stress fracture in his throwing elbow – and his stuff was not as good in his first pro season as it was in college. When he’s going well, Ranaudo throws 90-95 mph with a plus curveball and changeup. He fought his mechanics and command in his first pro season.
YEAR IN REVIEW: The right-hander began the year in low-A ball but was moved up to high-A after just 46 innings. Ranaudo pitched 81 innings at the senior level but he allowed two more hits per nine innings and his strikeout rate dropped from 9.78 to 7.44 K/9.
YEAR AHEAD: Ranaudo did not exactly dominate high-A ball but his FIP was decent at 3.95 (4.33 ERA) so he will probably open 2012 in double-A. He could spend the entire season there unless he suddenly becomes more consistent and his pitches become more crisp.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Even if he doesn’t become the No. 2 pitcher that some people predict, Ranaudo has the strong frame necessary to become a workhorse in the rotation as a No. 3 or 4 pitcher – assuming his elbow holds up. My gut feeling is that he’ll have a good – but not great – career in Boston.
7. Jackie Bradley, OF
BORN: April 19, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, South Carolina
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: With four selections before the second round during the 2011 draft, the Boston Red Sox organization acquired a lot of exciting talent and Bradley could end up being a true steal as the 40th overall pick. He slid after struggling on offense early in the college season and then he had wrist surgery. The South Carolina native is a plus defender with a plus arm. Although he’s struggled with his consistency as a hitter, Bradley has good bat speed and did not strike out much in his college career.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Bradley was healthy enough to play 10 pro games after signing with Boston, topping out at low-A Greenville. After hitting .368/.473/.587 in his sophomore season, the outfielder slumped to .247/.346/.432 in his junior year.
YEAR AHEAD: Bradley will probably open 2012 in low-A ball while working on becoming more consistent with the bat. If he can stay within himself and acknowledge his own strengths and weaknesses then he could see a lot of success and even reach high-A at some point in the year. Bradley should focus on the skills necessary to be a two-hole hitter.
CAREER OUTLOOK: At worst, Bradley should be an outstanding fourth outfielder or second-division starter. Because he brings so much to the table and has a lot of drive I fully expect him to get the most out of his abilities and improve significantly with the bat.
8. Ryan Lavarnway, C
BORN: Aug. 7, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 4 seas0ns
ACQUIRED: 2008 6th round, Yale University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 10th
SCOUTING REPORT: Lavarnway doesn’t have quite the offensive potential that New York’s Jesus Montero does but he’s in a similar situation as an offensive-minded catcher who may or may not be able to stick at the position. He’s shown enough defensively, though, to at least provide back-up duties at the position while also playing first base or acting as the DH. You can’t argue with Lavarnway’s offense. He hits for a solid average and has above-average power all over the field. He is not your typical grip-and-rip power hitter and is a smart baseball player (He’s a Yale Alum).
YEAR IN REVIEW: The catcher slugged 34 home runs over three levels (AA, AAA, MLB) in 2011 and hit .290 at the minor league level. He showed a patient approach (12.1 BB% at AAA) and struck out at a reasonable (but not great) rate for a power hitter. Lavarnway threw out 37% of base stealers while squatting behind the plate in the minors.
YEAR AHEAD: Lavarnway is probably ready for The Show but the return of DH David Ortiz could throw a wrench into the works. The catcher may have to bide his time at triple-A until an injury occurs to Ortiz or starting catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The club will want to carry a stronger defender as the back-up catcher, which is why veteran Kelly Shoppach was brought back.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Lavarnway has the potential to be a better offensive player than Saltalamacchia but he may not be any better defensively. It’s possible that he could end up replacing Ortiz as the full-time DH in 2013 but, either way, he should be an above-average hitter with 20+ home run potential.
9. Henry Owens, LHP
BORN: July 21, 1992
EXPERIENCE: Prep
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Owens is a tall (6’6
Eh, for some reason my post above has the Inception thing going on. Click on the spoiler and after the rumors are the spoilers for the rest of the articles.
Top 15 prospects: Boston Red Sox.
Top 15 prospects: Boston Red Sox.
Spoiler [+]
The Boston Red Sox top prospects list has undergone an upheaval over last season’s like no other. Only one player in the Top 10 (Ryan Lavarnway) appeared on the list a year ago, which accounts for an unprecedented amount of movement. The list lost just one prospect to graduation (Josh Reddick) while the other eight players either lost value or were surpassed by more promising talent. The good news for the system is that it still has a fair bit of depth and some of the players who stumbled in 2011 could rebuild their prospect value in ’12.
1. Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS
BORN: Dec. 1, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Given his young age, Bogaerts’ season was a massive success. He displayed an advanced approach that should lead to him hitting for average down the line and he has good bat speed, which generates above-average power. Defensively he plays a solid shortstop but he’s expected to slow down and shift over to third base before he reaches the Majors. An interesting side note: Bogaerts’ twin Jair Bogaert spent 2011 playing for Boston Dominican Summer League team (He hit .288 in 47 games).
YEAR IN REVIEW: Bogaerts played the 2011 season in low-A ball at the age of 18 – although he spent the first half of the year in extended spring training. He showed uncanny power for his age with an ISO rate of .249, as well as impressive patience (8.4 BB%). He still has rough edges in his game and struggles with breaking balls, which helped lead to a strikeout rate of 24%.
YEAR AHEAD: The infielder could spend 2012 in high-A ball as a teenager, if Boston wants to continue to be aggressive with him. He’ll look to curb his strikeouts while ironing out the rough edges in his game. If he keeps up this pace Bogaerts could be playing in the Majors by the time he’s 21 years old.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Bogaerts has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order threat with 30+ home runs a possibility. He should remain on the left side of the infield but it probably won’t be at shortstop. The Aruba native will be a fun prospect to watch in 2012 and I imagine Boston considers him virtually untouchable.
2. Will Middlebrooks, 3B
BORN: Sept. 9, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 5th round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Middlebrook entered 2011 as a sleeper and he exited the season as a top prospect. He began his pro career a little behind the eight ball because he was such a good pitcher in high school, as well as a talented football player. Now that he’s had time to acclimatize himself, Middlebrooks shows the ability to hit for both average and power, although his pitch selection and overall aggressiveness need work. Defensively, he’s a good fielder and has a strong arm.
YEAR IN REVIEW: The third baseman spent the year in double-A and hit .302 while also showing increased power with an ISO rate of .218. On the downside, his strikeouts remained high (24%) and his walk rate tied his career low mark of 5.3%. After slugging 23 home runs during the regular season he added four more in the Arizona Fall League (56 at-bats), although he hit just .250 and again struggled with Ks.
YEAR AHEAD: Middlebrooks received a brief taste – 56 at-bats – of triple-A in 2011 and he’ll return there in 2012. He could spend the entire year there with an eye on replacing the aging Kevin Youkilis for the ’13 season.
CAREER OUTLOOK: The former fifth-round pick looks like he’ll develop into at least an average offensive third baseman. If he can trim his strikeouts and maintain the increased power output then he has a chance to be an all-star at the hot corner.
3. Garin Cecchini, 3B
BORN: April 20, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 4th round, Louisiana HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: If you consider that Xander Bogaerts is likely headed for the hot corner down the road, Boston’s Top 3 prospects are all future third basemen. Cecchini displays an advanced approach for his age and projects to hit for both average and power. He also shows a solid defensive game at third. He likely would have been a first rounder in ’10 if he had not blown out his knee in high school, requiring major surgery. Cecchini’s younger brother Gavin Cecchini, a prep shortstop, could be a first round draft pick in 2012.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Playing against older competition in the New York Penn League, Cecchini more than held his own in 2011. He hit .298 and displayed gap power that resulted in 12 doubles and three homers in just 114 at-bats. He also walked just shy of 13% of the time – and struck out only 14% of the time.
YEAR AHEAD: Cecchini will most certainly move up to low-A in 2012 and could hit his way to high-A by mid-season. There is no reason for the organization to put any undue pressure on him , though, with fellow third base prospect Will Middlebrooks at triple-A.
CAREER OUTLOOK: When all is said and done, Cecchini could end up as a better third baseman than Middlebrooks, although both have considerable talent. The younger prospect still has a long way to climb, though, despite his impressive start to his pro career.
4. Blake Swihart, C
BORN: April 3, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (26th overall), New Mexico HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Signed away from the University of Texas for $2.5 million, Swihart is a promising offensive catcher in the Wil Myers mold. Like the top Royals prospect, this New Mexico native could move much more quickly through the system if he were to be moved to another position. Swihart shows promise behind the plate, thanks to his athleticism, but he’s only been catching for a few years – and rarely on a full-time basis. He’s a switch-hitter that shows above-average power and even the potential to hit for average.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Swihart received just six Rookie ball at-bats after signing and failed to record his first pro hit.
YEAR AHEAD: The catcher will likely stick in extended spring training to work on both his defense and his offense. Like catching, he’s fairly new to switch-hitting. If he remains behind the dish, Swihart will probably need four to five seasons in the minors.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Swihart has the potential to develop into an all-star catcher. He’ll obviously lose a little bit of value if he moves to third base or right field but his bat has a chance to be special. With no clear cut ‘catcher of the future’ in the system, Boston will be patient.
5. Matt Barnes, RHP
BORN: June 17, 1990
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (19th overall), U of Connecticut
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: There was some talk that Barnes could potentially be popped in the Top 10 during the 2011 draft so Boston was no doubt happy to land the Connecticut native with the 19th overall selection. The right-hander has a good pitcher’s frame with room to fill out even more. His fastball currently ranges from 91-97 mph and he also possesses a curveball, cutter and changeup.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Barnes did not pitch after signing. He had an outstanding junior year of college and pitched 116.2 innings, giving up just 71 hits and four home runs. His ERA dropped significantly over the past three seasons from 5.43 to 3.92 to 1.70.
YEAR AHEAD: Even though he has yet to pitch in a pro game, Barnes has shown enough to potential to begin 2012 in high-A ball. If his secondary stuff continues to develop he could reach the Majors within two to three years.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Barnes has the necessary ingredients to be a No. 2 or 3 starter at the Major League level. Once he firms up one of his secondary pitches into a plus pitch – most likely his curveball – he could really take off.
6. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP
BORN: Sept. 9, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 supplemental 1st round, Louisiana State U
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Ranaudo’s 2011 performance received mixed reviews. His numbers were solid but scouts were less enamored with him than expected. The right-hander struggled with injuries in college – including a stress fracture in his throwing elbow – and his stuff was not as good in his first pro season as it was in college. When he’s going well, Ranaudo throws 90-95 mph with a plus curveball and changeup. He fought his mechanics and command in his first pro season.
YEAR IN REVIEW: The right-hander began the year in low-A ball but was moved up to high-A after just 46 innings. Ranaudo pitched 81 innings at the senior level but he allowed two more hits per nine innings and his strikeout rate dropped from 9.78 to 7.44 K/9.
YEAR AHEAD: Ranaudo did not exactly dominate high-A ball but his FIP was decent at 3.95 (4.33 ERA) so he will probably open 2012 in double-A. He could spend the entire season there unless he suddenly becomes more consistent and his pitches become more crisp.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Even if he doesn’t become the No. 2 pitcher that some people predict, Ranaudo has the strong frame necessary to become a workhorse in the rotation as a No. 3 or 4 pitcher – assuming his elbow holds up. My gut feeling is that he’ll have a good – but not great – career in Boston.
7. Jackie Bradley, OF
BORN: April 19, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, South Carolina
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: With four selections before the second round during the 2011 draft, the Boston Red Sox organization acquired a lot of exciting talent and Bradley could end up being a true steal as the 40th overall pick. He slid after struggling on offense early in the college season and then he had wrist surgery. The South Carolina native is a plus defender with a plus arm. Although he’s struggled with his consistency as a hitter, Bradley has good bat speed and did not strike out much in his college career.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Bradley was healthy enough to play 10 pro games after signing with Boston, topping out at low-A Greenville. After hitting .368/.473/.587 in his sophomore season, the outfielder slumped to .247/.346/.432 in his junior year.
YEAR AHEAD: Bradley will probably open 2012 in low-A ball while working on becoming more consistent with the bat. If he can stay within himself and acknowledge his own strengths and weaknesses then he could see a lot of success and even reach high-A at some point in the year. Bradley should focus on the skills necessary to be a two-hole hitter.
CAREER OUTLOOK: At worst, Bradley should be an outstanding fourth outfielder or second-division starter. Because he brings so much to the table and has a lot of drive I fully expect him to get the most out of his abilities and improve significantly with the bat.
8. Ryan Lavarnway, C
BORN: Aug. 7, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 4 seas0ns
ACQUIRED: 2008 6th round, Yale University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 10th
SCOUTING REPORT: Lavarnway doesn’t have quite the offensive potential that New York’s Jesus Montero does but he’s in a similar situation as an offensive-minded catcher who may or may not be able to stick at the position. He’s shown enough defensively, though, to at least provide back-up duties at the position while also playing first base or acting as the DH. You can’t argue with Lavarnway’s offense. He hits for a solid average and has above-average power all over the field. He is not your typical grip-and-rip power hitter and is a smart baseball player (He’s a Yale Alum).
YEAR IN REVIEW: The catcher slugged 34 home runs over three levels (AA, AAA, MLB) in 2011 and hit .290 at the minor league level. He showed a patient approach (12.1 BB% at AAA) and struck out at a reasonable (but not great) rate for a power hitter. Lavarnway threw out 37% of base stealers while squatting behind the plate in the minors.
YEAR AHEAD: Lavarnway is probably ready for The Show but the return of DH David Ortiz could throw a wrench into the works. The catcher may have to bide his time at triple-A until an injury occurs to Ortiz or starting catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The club will want to carry a stronger defender as the back-up catcher, which is why veteran Kelly Shoppach was brought back.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Lavarnway has the potential to be a better offensive player than Saltalamacchia but he may not be any better defensively. It’s possible that he could end up replacing Ortiz as the full-time DH in 2013 but, either way, he should be an above-average hitter with 20+ home run potential.
9. Henry Owens, LHP
BORN: July 21, 1992
EXPERIENCE: Prep
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Owens is a tall (6’6
1. Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS
BORN: Dec. 1, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Given his young age, Bogaerts’ season was a massive success. He displayed an advanced approach that should lead to him hitting for average down the line and he has good bat speed, which generates above-average power. Defensively he plays a solid shortstop but he’s expected to slow down and shift over to third base before he reaches the Majors. An interesting side note: Bogaerts’ twin Jair Bogaert spent 2011 playing for Boston Dominican Summer League team (He hit .288 in 47 games).
YEAR IN REVIEW: Bogaerts played the 2011 season in low-A ball at the age of 18 – although he spent the first half of the year in extended spring training. He showed uncanny power for his age with an ISO rate of .249, as well as impressive patience (8.4 BB%). He still has rough edges in his game and struggles with breaking balls, which helped lead to a strikeout rate of 24%.
YEAR AHEAD: The infielder could spend 2012 in high-A ball as a teenager, if Boston wants to continue to be aggressive with him. He’ll look to curb his strikeouts while ironing out the rough edges in his game. If he keeps up this pace Bogaerts could be playing in the Majors by the time he’s 21 years old.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Bogaerts has the potential to develop into a middle-of-the-order threat with 30+ home runs a possibility. He should remain on the left side of the infield but it probably won’t be at shortstop. The Aruba native will be a fun prospect to watch in 2012 and I imagine Boston considers him virtually untouchable.
2. Will Middlebrooks, 3B
BORN: Sept. 9, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 5th round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Middlebrook entered 2011 as a sleeper and he exited the season as a top prospect. He began his pro career a little behind the eight ball because he was such a good pitcher in high school, as well as a talented football player. Now that he’s had time to acclimatize himself, Middlebrooks shows the ability to hit for both average and power, although his pitch selection and overall aggressiveness need work. Defensively, he’s a good fielder and has a strong arm.
YEAR IN REVIEW: The third baseman spent the year in double-A and hit .302 while also showing increased power with an ISO rate of .218. On the downside, his strikeouts remained high (24%) and his walk rate tied his career low mark of 5.3%. After slugging 23 home runs during the regular season he added four more in the Arizona Fall League (56 at-bats), although he hit just .250 and again struggled with Ks.
YEAR AHEAD: Middlebrooks received a brief taste – 56 at-bats – of triple-A in 2011 and he’ll return there in 2012. He could spend the entire year there with an eye on replacing the aging Kevin Youkilis for the ’13 season.
CAREER OUTLOOK: The former fifth-round pick looks like he’ll develop into at least an average offensive third baseman. If he can trim his strikeouts and maintain the increased power output then he has a chance to be an all-star at the hot corner.
3. Garin Cecchini, 3B
BORN: April 20, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 4th round, Louisiana HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: If you consider that Xander Bogaerts is likely headed for the hot corner down the road, Boston’s Top 3 prospects are all future third basemen. Cecchini displays an advanced approach for his age and projects to hit for both average and power. He also shows a solid defensive game at third. He likely would have been a first rounder in ’10 if he had not blown out his knee in high school, requiring major surgery. Cecchini’s younger brother Gavin Cecchini, a prep shortstop, could be a first round draft pick in 2012.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Playing against older competition in the New York Penn League, Cecchini more than held his own in 2011. He hit .298 and displayed gap power that resulted in 12 doubles and three homers in just 114 at-bats. He also walked just shy of 13% of the time – and struck out only 14% of the time.
YEAR AHEAD: Cecchini will most certainly move up to low-A in 2012 and could hit his way to high-A by mid-season. There is no reason for the organization to put any undue pressure on him , though, with fellow third base prospect Will Middlebrooks at triple-A.
CAREER OUTLOOK: When all is said and done, Cecchini could end up as a better third baseman than Middlebrooks, although both have considerable talent. The younger prospect still has a long way to climb, though, despite his impressive start to his pro career.
4. Blake Swihart, C
BORN: April 3, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (26th overall), New Mexico HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Signed away from the University of Texas for $2.5 million, Swihart is a promising offensive catcher in the Wil Myers mold. Like the top Royals prospect, this New Mexico native could move much more quickly through the system if he were to be moved to another position. Swihart shows promise behind the plate, thanks to his athleticism, but he’s only been catching for a few years – and rarely on a full-time basis. He’s a switch-hitter that shows above-average power and even the potential to hit for average.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Swihart received just six Rookie ball at-bats after signing and failed to record his first pro hit.
YEAR AHEAD: The catcher will likely stick in extended spring training to work on both his defense and his offense. Like catching, he’s fairly new to switch-hitting. If he remains behind the dish, Swihart will probably need four to five seasons in the minors.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Swihart has the potential to develop into an all-star catcher. He’ll obviously lose a little bit of value if he moves to third base or right field but his bat has a chance to be special. With no clear cut ‘catcher of the future’ in the system, Boston will be patient.
5. Matt Barnes, RHP
BORN: June 17, 1990
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (19th overall), U of Connecticut
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: There was some talk that Barnes could potentially be popped in the Top 10 during the 2011 draft so Boston was no doubt happy to land the Connecticut native with the 19th overall selection. The right-hander has a good pitcher’s frame with room to fill out even more. His fastball currently ranges from 91-97 mph and he also possesses a curveball, cutter and changeup.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Barnes did not pitch after signing. He had an outstanding junior year of college and pitched 116.2 innings, giving up just 71 hits and four home runs. His ERA dropped significantly over the past three seasons from 5.43 to 3.92 to 1.70.
YEAR AHEAD: Even though he has yet to pitch in a pro game, Barnes has shown enough to potential to begin 2012 in high-A ball. If his secondary stuff continues to develop he could reach the Majors within two to three years.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Barnes has the necessary ingredients to be a No. 2 or 3 starter at the Major League level. Once he firms up one of his secondary pitches into a plus pitch – most likely his curveball – he could really take off.
6. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP
BORN: Sept. 9, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 supplemental 1st round, Louisiana State U
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Ranaudo’s 2011 performance received mixed reviews. His numbers were solid but scouts were less enamored with him than expected. The right-hander struggled with injuries in college – including a stress fracture in his throwing elbow – and his stuff was not as good in his first pro season as it was in college. When he’s going well, Ranaudo throws 90-95 mph with a plus curveball and changeup. He fought his mechanics and command in his first pro season.
YEAR IN REVIEW: The right-hander began the year in low-A ball but was moved up to high-A after just 46 innings. Ranaudo pitched 81 innings at the senior level but he allowed two more hits per nine innings and his strikeout rate dropped from 9.78 to 7.44 K/9.
YEAR AHEAD: Ranaudo did not exactly dominate high-A ball but his FIP was decent at 3.95 (4.33 ERA) so he will probably open 2012 in double-A. He could spend the entire season there unless he suddenly becomes more consistent and his pitches become more crisp.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Even if he doesn’t become the No. 2 pitcher that some people predict, Ranaudo has the strong frame necessary to become a workhorse in the rotation as a No. 3 or 4 pitcher – assuming his elbow holds up. My gut feeling is that he’ll have a good – but not great – career in Boston.
7. Jackie Bradley, OF
BORN: April 19, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, South Carolina
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: With four selections before the second round during the 2011 draft, the Boston Red Sox organization acquired a lot of exciting talent and Bradley could end up being a true steal as the 40th overall pick. He slid after struggling on offense early in the college season and then he had wrist surgery. The South Carolina native is a plus defender with a plus arm. Although he’s struggled with his consistency as a hitter, Bradley has good bat speed and did not strike out much in his college career.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Bradley was healthy enough to play 10 pro games after signing with Boston, topping out at low-A Greenville. After hitting .368/.473/.587 in his sophomore season, the outfielder slumped to .247/.346/.432 in his junior year.
YEAR AHEAD: Bradley will probably open 2012 in low-A ball while working on becoming more consistent with the bat. If he can stay within himself and acknowledge his own strengths and weaknesses then he could see a lot of success and even reach high-A at some point in the year. Bradley should focus on the skills necessary to be a two-hole hitter.
CAREER OUTLOOK: At worst, Bradley should be an outstanding fourth outfielder or second-division starter. Because he brings so much to the table and has a lot of drive I fully expect him to get the most out of his abilities and improve significantly with the bat.
8. Ryan Lavarnway, C
BORN: Aug. 7, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 4 seas0ns
ACQUIRED: 2008 6th round, Yale University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 10th
SCOUTING REPORT: Lavarnway doesn’t have quite the offensive potential that New York’s Jesus Montero does but he’s in a similar situation as an offensive-minded catcher who may or may not be able to stick at the position. He’s shown enough defensively, though, to at least provide back-up duties at the position while also playing first base or acting as the DH. You can’t argue with Lavarnway’s offense. He hits for a solid average and has above-average power all over the field. He is not your typical grip-and-rip power hitter and is a smart baseball player (He’s a Yale Alum).
YEAR IN REVIEW: The catcher slugged 34 home runs over three levels (AA, AAA, MLB) in 2011 and hit .290 at the minor league level. He showed a patient approach (12.1 BB% at AAA) and struck out at a reasonable (but not great) rate for a power hitter. Lavarnway threw out 37% of base stealers while squatting behind the plate in the minors.
YEAR AHEAD: Lavarnway is probably ready for The Show but the return of DH David Ortiz could throw a wrench into the works. The catcher may have to bide his time at triple-A until an injury occurs to Ortiz or starting catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The club will want to carry a stronger defender as the back-up catcher, which is why veteran Kelly Shoppach was brought back.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Lavarnway has the potential to be a better offensive player than Saltalamacchia but he may not be any better defensively. It’s possible that he could end up replacing Ortiz as the full-time DH in 2013 but, either way, he should be an above-average hitter with 20+ home run potential.
9. Henry Owens, LHP
BORN: July 21, 1992
EXPERIENCE: Prep
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Owens is a tall (6’6
- Jan 8, 2005
- 17,144
- 1,167
We'll just have to wait and see. Drew Stubby cuts his strikeouts down and we'll be right up there IMO.Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN
Co-signs
*waits for delusional Reds fans to come in and post the contrary.*
- Jan 8, 2005
- 17,144
- 1,167
We'll just have to wait and see. Drew Stubby cuts his strikeouts down and we'll be right up there IMO.Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN
Co-signs
*waits for delusional Reds fans to come in and post the contrary.*
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,131
- 9,289
Wait. Im sorry if I am missing something. But are you saying that the key to your team being able to compete with the Cardinals is Drew Stubbs not striking out as much?Originally Posted by RKO2004
We'll just have to wait and see. Drew Stubby cuts his strikeouts down and we'll be right up there IMO.Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN
Co-signs
*waits for delusional Reds fans to come in and post the contrary.*
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,131
- 9,289
Wait. Im sorry if I am missing something. But are you saying that the key to your team being able to compete with the Cardinals is Drew Stubbs not striking out as much?Originally Posted by RKO2004
We'll just have to wait and see. Drew Stubby cuts his strikeouts down and we'll be right up there IMO.Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN
Co-signs
*waits for delusional Reds fans to come in and post the contrary.*
- Dec 17, 2003
- 9,530
- 91
Originally Posted by dland24
Wait. Im sorry if I am missing something. But are you saying that the key to your team being able to compete with the Cardinals is Drew Stubbs not striking out as much?Originally Posted by RKO2004
We'll just have to wait and see. Drew Stubby cuts his strikeouts down and we'll be right up there IMO.Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN
Co-signs
*waits for delusional Reds fans to come in and post the contrary.*
- Dec 17, 2003
- 9,530
- 91
Originally Posted by dland24
Wait. Im sorry if I am missing something. But are you saying that the key to your team being able to compete with the Cardinals is Drew Stubbs not striking out as much?Originally Posted by RKO2004
We'll just have to wait and see. Drew Stubby cuts his strikeouts down and we'll be right up there IMO.Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN
Co-signs
*waits for delusional Reds fans to come in and post the contrary.*
- Jan 7, 2004
- 28,043
- 10,466
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to Pro and all my baseball regulars! May the Cleveland Indians win the AL Central in 2012.
- Jan 7, 2004
- 28,043
- 10,466
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to Pro and all my baseball regulars! May the Cleveland Indians win the AL Central in 2012.
- Dec 1, 2009
- 8,406
- 41
Wheres the domincan guyOriginally Posted by bbllplaya23
Best of luck to Gio. I hope he tears it up there. As far as the prospects we got? I don't care for it anymore. Just give me a damn stadium and hopefully people will start showing up. I'll be shocked if we don't lose a 100 games next year.
- Dec 1, 2009
- 8,406
- 41
Wheres the domincan guyOriginally Posted by bbllplaya23
Best of luck to Gio. I hope he tears it up there. As far as the prospects we got? I don't care for it anymore. Just give me a damn stadium and hopefully people will start showing up. I'll be shocked if we don't lose a 100 games next year.
- Dec 1, 2009
- 8,406
- 41
Wheres the domincan guyOriginally Posted by bbllplaya23
Best of luck to Gio. I hope he tears it up there. As far as the prospects we got? I don't care for it anymore. Just give me a damn stadium and hopefully people will start showing up. I'll be shocked if we don't lose a 100 games next year.
- Status
