2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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- Jan 8, 2005
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Originally Posted by dland24
Wait. Im sorry if I am missing something. But are you saying that the key to your team being able to compete with the Cardinals is Drew Stubbs not striking out as much?Originally Posted by RKO2004
We'll just have to wait and see. Drew Stubby cuts his strikeouts down and we'll be right up there IMO.Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN
Co-signs
*waits for delusional Reds fans to come in and post the contrary.*
Joey Votto is money but he can't do it by himself. I'm looking for Jay Bruce to improve even further. We have some other pieces in place. Still need a left fielder and consistency at SS and 3rd. Pitching had an off year but I look for the staff to rebound.
His stats form 2010-2011 are pretty comparable. The major issue with him is his hit selection resulting in swinging at bad pitches. That leads to strikeouts and easy outs for the opposition. 168 strikeouts in 2010 and 205 in 2011. His home runs were down too.
Drew Stubbs needs to become a more reliable player. He had 205 strikeouts. If he can cut those down and turn some of those strikeouts into base hits/ RBI's, wouldn't that give the Reds another reliable offensive weapon?
Drew Stubbs stepping his game up will take pressure off the rest of the line up. If he learns to select pitches better, work the count and get more productive at bats. Everyone wins.
- Jan 8, 2005
- 17,144
- 1,167
Originally Posted by dland24
Wait. Im sorry if I am missing something. But are you saying that the key to your team being able to compete with the Cardinals is Drew Stubbs not striking out as much?Originally Posted by RKO2004
We'll just have to wait and see. Drew Stubby cuts his strikeouts down and we'll be right up there IMO.Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN
Co-signs
*waits for delusional Reds fans to come in and post the contrary.*
Joey Votto is money but he can't do it by himself. I'm looking for Jay Bruce to improve even further. We have some other pieces in place. Still need a left fielder and consistency at SS and 3rd. Pitching had an off year but I look for the staff to rebound.
His stats form 2010-2011 are pretty comparable. The major issue with him is his hit selection resulting in swinging at bad pitches. That leads to strikeouts and easy outs for the opposition. 168 strikeouts in 2010 and 205 in 2011. His home runs were down too.
Drew Stubbs needs to become a more reliable player. He had 205 strikeouts. If he can cut those down and turn some of those strikeouts into base hits/ RBI's, wouldn't that give the Reds another reliable offensive weapon?
Drew Stubbs stepping his game up will take pressure off the rest of the line up. If he learns to select pitches better, work the count and get more productive at bats. Everyone wins.
- Jan 8, 2005
- 17,144
- 1,167
Yeah Bruce is very key. He was on fire in May then sputtered out for a little while and somewhat picked back up.
- Jan 8, 2005
- 17,144
- 1,167
Yeah Bruce is very key. He was on fire in May then sputtered out for a little while and somewhat picked back up.
- Feb 21, 2010
- 613
- 70
With the move to San Jose, will the A's become the San Jose A's or would they still be the Oakland A's? I've looked up stuff on this, but I couldn't find anything. All I've found is "A's fans rejoice... Blah Blah Blah... New Stadium... Blah Blah Blah... San Jose." I wish they would have been able to stay in Oakland, of course with a new stadium though. It sucks how people don't go to the games here in Oakland.
- Feb 21, 2010
- 613
- 70
With the move to San Jose, will the A's become the San Jose A's or would they still be the Oakland A's? I've looked up stuff on this, but I couldn't find anything. All I've found is "A's fans rejoice... Blah Blah Blah... New Stadium... Blah Blah Blah... San Jose." I wish they would have been able to stay in Oakland, of course with a new stadium though. It sucks how people don't go to the games here in Oakland.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- Apr 5, 2005
- 6,621
- 2,173
There is still no move to San Jose, it's all rumors. If it did happen, I'm sure they would change there name to the San Jose A's.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- Apr 5, 2005
- 6,621
- 2,173
There is still no move to San Jose, it's all rumors. If it did happen, I'm sure they would change there name to the San Jose A's.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- Apr 5, 2005
- 6,621
- 2,173
Dominican or Cuban?Originally Posted by ShaunHillFTW49
Wheres the domincan guyOriginally Posted by bbllplaya23
Best of luck to Gio. I hope he tears it up there. As far as the prospects we got? I don't care for it anymore. Just give me a damn stadium and hopefully people will start showing up. I'll be shocked if we don't lose a 100 games next year.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- Apr 5, 2005
- 6,621
- 2,173
Dominican or Cuban?Originally Posted by ShaunHillFTW49
Wheres the domincan guyOriginally Posted by bbllplaya23
Best of luck to Gio. I hope he tears it up there. As far as the prospects we got? I don't care for it anymore. Just give me a damn stadium and hopefully people will start showing up. I'll be shocked if we don't lose a 100 games next year.
Biggest prospect flops of 2011.
Top 10 bullpens in MLB.
Top 10 rotations in MLB.
Which active players are going to Cooperstown?
Spoiler [+]
It was a very good year, it was a very bad year.
That's how any prospect follower can feel when reviewing where a prospect stood in the industry.
Here are 10 players who might like to forget what happened in 2011 and hope that a change of the calendar can help them turn it around in 2012.
[h3]Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The last time we saw the good version of Brown was mid-2010. Since then, he was called up to the big leagues but given inconsistent playing time, had a horrible spring training while trying to adjust his swing and didn't play especially well at any level in 2011.
"I think it will happen for him, but I don't think it will happen in Philly," said a rival National League executive. "I bet he's gone by midseason in their next big trade."
[h3]Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
Drabek entered the 2011 season as the Blue Jays' best prospect and a Rookie of the Year candidate but struggled with command and went backward following a demotion to Triple-A.
Still, his stuff -- including a plus fastball and plus-plus curveball -- is still there.
"I still like him a lot," said one scouting executive, adding that a move to the bullpen might better suit his pitch inefficiency and fiery makeup.
[h3]Wilmer Flores, SS, New York Mets[/h3]
Flores has long been seen as one of the Mets' top prospects, but that's mostly been because of his age and level.
In 2011, he proved to still be more potential than reality, and nobody thinks he can stay at shortstop long-term, putting even more pressure on the bat.
"Sure he was good in the Sally League at 17, but he hasn't done much since," said one evaluator. "The tools don't even profile for a corner, which is where people will think he'll end up."
[h3]Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins[/h3]
Few prospects in baseball draw more diverse opinions than Hicks, who provides top-of-the-line tools and precious little to show for it on the stat sheet.
With more than 1,500 minor league plate appearances, the 2008 first-round pick has hit .266/.377/.407 without reaching the upper levels. But while some are ready to give up on him, others have yet to waver in their belief.
"I'd take him in a second," said one exec. "There are three things that never slump: patience, power and defense, and he has all three."
[h3]Jose Iglesias, SS, Boston Red Sox[/h3]
When the Red Sox gave big money to the Cuban defector in 2009, the praise was universal for his glove work but there were plenty of questions about his bat.
Iglesias shocked the industry by hitting .295 in 2010, but after a miserable .235/.285/.269 line at Triple-A Pawtucket in 2011, all of the concerns are back, even with the best defensive skills in the minors.
"Sure he's a great defender, but he just can't hit a lick," said one scouting official. "For me, he's just Rey Ordonez, Part II."
[h3]Trey McNutt, RHP, Chicago Cubs[/h3]
McNutt came out of nowhere in 2010, leaving scouts wondering how a big-framed power right-hander who can touch the upper 90s and back it up with a plus slider could last into the 32nd round.
Spending the entire year in Double-A, McNutt struggled with a variety of maladies and didn't pitch well when healthy, finishing with a 4.55 ERA while allowing 120 hits in 95 innings.
"I like him as a bounce-back candidate because he has really good stuff," said a scouting executive. "But our people had concerns about why he suddenly stopped missing bats."
[h3]Mike Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals[/h3]
The Royals entered 2011 with a quartet of impressive left-handers in the upper levels. While Danny Duffy had his moments in the big leagues, the other three went backward, as John Lamb had Tommy John surgery and Chris Dwyer and Montgomery scuffled with their mechanics (and therefore their command and control).
Still, the stuff is still there, and that's what scouts look for.
"I still like him a lot and think he could be in the Royals rotation at some point in 2012," said one scout, who added that his upside is more middle of the rotation than that of a future star. "More John Danks than Cole Hamels."
[h3]Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Red Sox[/h3]
Ranaudo entered the spring of 2010 as the best college pitcher in the country according to some, but elbow problems hurt his draft status, leading to him pitching his way to a $2.55 million bonus with a strong showing in the Cape Cod League. He impressed last year in the South Atlantic League, but scouting reports matched his substandard showing following a promotion to High-A.
"He's overrated because of the bonus, the Cape showing, the size, the Red Sox, just everything," said one executive. "He maybe has a chance as a bottom rotation guy, but he isn't anything special."
Another scout was even lower on him, pegging him as a future middle reliever. "His fastball is just good, no other pitch is plus, and if you had no idea of his background, he'd be just another guy."
[h3]Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
No prospect in the Pirates system took a bigger hit in 2011 than Sanchez, who entered the year with a shot at making the big leagues quickly but never got out of Double-A while limping to the finish with a batting line of .241/.340/.318.
"He's a good defender, a great makeup guy, but the fact remains that he's just a fringy bat," said one scout. "I could see him one day playing every day for Pittsburgh, but he's not going to be a difference-maker."
[h3]Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Texas Rangers[/h3]
The point at which Scheppers went south is clear. He started the 2010 season by dominating out of the bullpen and was on the verge of the big leagues when the Rangers decided to see if he could work as a starter.
He's simply never been the same since, and a return to the bullpen has not brought his stuff all the way back to 2010 levels.
"I think he's still a potential seventh- or eighth-inning guy, but I'd be wary of him in a deal," said one front office member. "There are a lot of red flags, from the control, the delivery, and most of all the injury history."
That's how any prospect follower can feel when reviewing where a prospect stood in the industry.
Here are 10 players who might like to forget what happened in 2011 and hope that a change of the calendar can help them turn it around in 2012.
[h3]Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The last time we saw the good version of Brown was mid-2010. Since then, he was called up to the big leagues but given inconsistent playing time, had a horrible spring training while trying to adjust his swing and didn't play especially well at any level in 2011.
"I think it will happen for him, but I don't think it will happen in Philly," said a rival National League executive. "I bet he's gone by midseason in their next big trade."
[h3]Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
Drabek entered the 2011 season as the Blue Jays' best prospect and a Rookie of the Year candidate but struggled with command and went backward following a demotion to Triple-A.
Still, his stuff -- including a plus fastball and plus-plus curveball -- is still there.
"I still like him a lot," said one scouting executive, adding that a move to the bullpen might better suit his pitch inefficiency and fiery makeup.
[h3]Wilmer Flores, SS, New York Mets[/h3]
Flores has long been seen as one of the Mets' top prospects, but that's mostly been because of his age and level.
In 2011, he proved to still be more potential than reality, and nobody thinks he can stay at shortstop long-term, putting even more pressure on the bat.
"Sure he was good in the Sally League at 17, but he hasn't done much since," said one evaluator. "The tools don't even profile for a corner, which is where people will think he'll end up."
[h3]Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins[/h3]
Few prospects in baseball draw more diverse opinions than Hicks, who provides top-of-the-line tools and precious little to show for it on the stat sheet.
With more than 1,500 minor league plate appearances, the 2008 first-round pick has hit .266/.377/.407 without reaching the upper levels. But while some are ready to give up on him, others have yet to waver in their belief.
"I'd take him in a second," said one exec. "There are three things that never slump: patience, power and defense, and he has all three."
[h3]Jose Iglesias, SS, Boston Red Sox[/h3]
When the Red Sox gave big money to the Cuban defector in 2009, the praise was universal for his glove work but there were plenty of questions about his bat.
Iglesias shocked the industry by hitting .295 in 2010, but after a miserable .235/.285/.269 line at Triple-A Pawtucket in 2011, all of the concerns are back, even with the best defensive skills in the minors.
"Sure he's a great defender, but he just can't hit a lick," said one scouting official. "For me, he's just Rey Ordonez, Part II."
[h3]Trey McNutt, RHP, Chicago Cubs[/h3]
McNutt came out of nowhere in 2010, leaving scouts wondering how a big-framed power right-hander who can touch the upper 90s and back it up with a plus slider could last into the 32nd round.
Spending the entire year in Double-A, McNutt struggled with a variety of maladies and didn't pitch well when healthy, finishing with a 4.55 ERA while allowing 120 hits in 95 innings.
"I like him as a bounce-back candidate because he has really good stuff," said a scouting executive. "But our people had concerns about why he suddenly stopped missing bats."
[h3]Mike Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals[/h3]
The Royals entered 2011 with a quartet of impressive left-handers in the upper levels. While Danny Duffy had his moments in the big leagues, the other three went backward, as John Lamb had Tommy John surgery and Chris Dwyer and Montgomery scuffled with their mechanics (and therefore their command and control).
Still, the stuff is still there, and that's what scouts look for.
"I still like him a lot and think he could be in the Royals rotation at some point in 2012," said one scout, who added that his upside is more middle of the rotation than that of a future star. "More John Danks than Cole Hamels."
[h3]Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Red Sox[/h3]
Ranaudo entered the spring of 2010 as the best college pitcher in the country according to some, but elbow problems hurt his draft status, leading to him pitching his way to a $2.55 million bonus with a strong showing in the Cape Cod League. He impressed last year in the South Atlantic League, but scouting reports matched his substandard showing following a promotion to High-A.
"He's overrated because of the bonus, the Cape showing, the size, the Red Sox, just everything," said one executive. "He maybe has a chance as a bottom rotation guy, but he isn't anything special."
Another scout was even lower on him, pegging him as a future middle reliever. "His fastball is just good, no other pitch is plus, and if you had no idea of his background, he'd be just another guy."
[h3]Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
No prospect in the Pirates system took a bigger hit in 2011 than Sanchez, who entered the year with a shot at making the big leagues quickly but never got out of Double-A while limping to the finish with a batting line of .241/.340/.318.
"He's a good defender, a great makeup guy, but the fact remains that he's just a fringy bat," said one scout. "I could see him one day playing every day for Pittsburgh, but he's not going to be a difference-maker."
[h3]Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Texas Rangers[/h3]
The point at which Scheppers went south is clear. He started the 2010 season by dominating out of the bullpen and was on the verge of the big leagues when the Rangers decided to see if he could work as a starter.
He's simply never been the same since, and a return to the bullpen has not brought his stuff all the way back to 2010 levels.
"I think he's still a potential seventh- or eighth-inning guy, but I'd be wary of him in a deal," said one front office member. "There are a lot of red flags, from the control, the delivery, and most of all the injury history."
Top 10 bullpens in MLB.
Spoiler [+]
[h3]1. Atlanta Braves[/h3]
At the end of the season, it got very ugly for this bullpen, as all of the young Atlanta relievers appeared to wear down under the strain of a staggering workload. Typically, the bullpens that rack up the most innings are those attached to terrible rotations, but incredibly, Atlanta compiled almost 50 more innings than any team that made the playoffs -- and remember, the Braves nearly won the NL wild card. Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty and Craig Kimbrel all pitched in more games in 2011 than either Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman pitched in any season of their entire careers. That's crazy. Venters threw 88 innings in 85 games, and Kimbrel had 77 innings in 79 games.
But for most of the season, the Atlanta relief was spectacular. The Braves' bullpen was No. 1 in relief ERA in 2011, and there's no reason to think the Braves' pitchers can't repeat that performance. Kimbrel and Venters have ridiculous stuff, and presumably, with the benefit of hindsight, Atlanta's staff will make adjustments on how their three primary relievers are utilized. This year, Kris Medlen -- now fully recovered from elbow surgery -- will join the group. And the Braves also got great work out of two waiver claims, Cristhian Martinez (who had an 0.97 WHIP) and Anthony Varvaro (1.08 WHIP).
[h3]2. New York Yankees[/h3]
There will be a day when Rivera will walk away from baseball, when the greatest closer in history will finally retire; No. 42 just turned 42 years old. But he's got one year left on his contract and there are still no major signs of regression in his performance -- with his fastball in the 89-92 mph range, he held opponents to a .534 OPS last year. David Robertson is to right-handed setup men what Venters is to lefties: arguably the best going. He allowed one homer in 235 at-bats last season, and with the bases loaded, opposing hitters were 1-for-19 with 14 strikeouts. Rafael Soriano is probably overpaid for his position on the team, but he pitched more effectively in the second half of the year, and sometime this season Joba Chamberlain will probably join to split the work in the middle innings. The Yankees don't have a shut-down lefty, as the Braves do, but their right-handers are excellent against lefties.
[h3]3. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
They ranked second in the majors in bullpen ERA, despite the intermittent physical troubles of closer Brian Wilson. Sergio Romo averaged 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and right-handers had a .177 on-base percentage against him last season. And the Giants have balance, too, with Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt.
[h3]4. Cleveland Indians[/h3]
Chris Perez was an All-Star closer, racking up 36 saves, and he is surrounded by a dangerous and diverse group -- Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez and Nick Hagadone.
The Indians' bullpen may well benefit from a solid (if unspectacular) rotation that should consistently take the ball into the sixth and seventh innings.
[h3]5. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
The D-backs have gone from having perhaps the thinnest bullpen to having arguably the deepest. Takashi Saito and Craig Breslow will join a relief corps that already has J.J. Putz, the underrated David Hernandez, Brad Ziegler, Joe Paterson and Bryan Shaw. The health of Putz will be crucial, as it was last year, because his presence as closer creates a structure.
[h3]6. Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
John Axford is firmly entrenched as an elite closer now, after collecting 46 saves and 86 strikeouts last season, and now Francisco Rodriguez is gritting his teeth and agreeing to come back to be a setup man. K-Rod was something of a distraction when he popped off about his role late in the year, and that overshadowed just how well he pitched for the Brewers. Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin places a lot of emphasis on the bullpen, and so it figures this group will improve as the season progresses.
[h3]7. St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]
At the end of the regular season, the Cardinals ranked 17th in bullpen ERA. But this was a group that evolved during the course of the season, as young relievers settled in, and by the time the Cardinals got to the World Series, it was a very different bullpen than it was in the frustrating days of early September. Jason Motte was never formally named the closer under Tony La Russa; maybe he'll get that title from Mike Matheny. Marc Rzepczynski is viewed as an untapped gem, and maybe with a full season working under pitching coach Dave Duncan, he'll become a dominant setup man.
[h3]8. Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nationals finished fifth in the majors in bullpen ERA, and a lot of that success was because of the work of Tyler Clippard, who had an 0.84 WHIP and held opponents to a .535 OPS. Clippard had the lowest BABIP among relievers with at least 60 innings last season, at .187, almost 100 points lower than in 2010, a sign that there could be some regression in 2012. But either way, Clippard is an effective setup man for Drew Storen, good anchors for what should be a good bullpen.
[h3]9. Miami Marlins[/h3]
The turnaround for this group last year was remarkable, and now Heath Bell steps in for the closer formerly known as Leo Nunez. He is surrounded by Mike Dunn, Edward Mujica, Ryan Webb and Randy Choate -- and remember, the Marlins' new ballpark is thought to be favorable for pitchers.
[h3]10a. Texas Rangers[/h3]
They've got a lot of great pieces and this could be a special group, depending on how a few things shake out:
A. Can Joe Nathan get back to being a frontline closer, as he takes over for Neftali Feliz?
B. Can Koji Uehara bounce back, after pitching terribly for the Rangers following a midseason trade?
C. Will the Rangers add another bullpen piece -- perhaps Alexi Ogando, if Texas chooses to shift him back to a relief role, or Andrew Bailey, who has been the subject of Rangers-Athletics trade talks?
[h3]10b. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies' relievers have an enormous advantage over other bullpens because, generally speaking, their workload is limited by the huge number of innings contributed by the front part of the team's rotation; because of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, no NL bullpen threw fewer innings than Philadelphia's Jonathan Papelbon, who takes over as the Phillies' closer, and while Antonio Bastardo appeared to tire in his first full season as a reliever, he was dominant for most of the summer. Michael Stutes and David Herndon were effective, as well, and it's possible that Brad Lidge will come back in a middle relief role.
[h3]10c. Cincinnati Reds[/h3]
The Reds have a lot of weapons, and they've added Sean Marshall, who is one of the best lefty relievers. But with Francisco Cordero still in free agency, the structure of the Cincinnati bullpen is still uncertain. Will Aroldis Chapman be a setup man? Who will be the closer? How will some of the Reds' relievers bounce back after a year of heavy work?
At the end of the season, it got very ugly for this bullpen, as all of the young Atlanta relievers appeared to wear down under the strain of a staggering workload. Typically, the bullpens that rack up the most innings are those attached to terrible rotations, but incredibly, Atlanta compiled almost 50 more innings than any team that made the playoffs -- and remember, the Braves nearly won the NL wild card. Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty and Craig Kimbrel all pitched in more games in 2011 than either Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman pitched in any season of their entire careers. That's crazy. Venters threw 88 innings in 85 games, and Kimbrel had 77 innings in 79 games.
But for most of the season, the Atlanta relief was spectacular. The Braves' bullpen was No. 1 in relief ERA in 2011, and there's no reason to think the Braves' pitchers can't repeat that performance. Kimbrel and Venters have ridiculous stuff, and presumably, with the benefit of hindsight, Atlanta's staff will make adjustments on how their three primary relievers are utilized. This year, Kris Medlen -- now fully recovered from elbow surgery -- will join the group. And the Braves also got great work out of two waiver claims, Cristhian Martinez (who had an 0.97 WHIP) and Anthony Varvaro (1.08 WHIP).
[h3]2. New York Yankees[/h3]
There will be a day when Rivera will walk away from baseball, when the greatest closer in history will finally retire; No. 42 just turned 42 years old. But he's got one year left on his contract and there are still no major signs of regression in his performance -- with his fastball in the 89-92 mph range, he held opponents to a .534 OPS last year. David Robertson is to right-handed setup men what Venters is to lefties: arguably the best going. He allowed one homer in 235 at-bats last season, and with the bases loaded, opposing hitters were 1-for-19 with 14 strikeouts. Rafael Soriano is probably overpaid for his position on the team, but he pitched more effectively in the second half of the year, and sometime this season Joba Chamberlain will probably join to split the work in the middle innings. The Yankees don't have a shut-down lefty, as the Braves do, but their right-handers are excellent against lefties.
[h3]3. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
They ranked second in the majors in bullpen ERA, despite the intermittent physical troubles of closer Brian Wilson. Sergio Romo averaged 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and right-handers had a .177 on-base percentage against him last season. And the Giants have balance, too, with Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt.
[h3]4. Cleveland Indians[/h3]
Chris Perez was an All-Star closer, racking up 36 saves, and he is surrounded by a dangerous and diverse group -- Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez and Nick Hagadone.
The Indians' bullpen may well benefit from a solid (if unspectacular) rotation that should consistently take the ball into the sixth and seventh innings.
[h3]5. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
The D-backs have gone from having perhaps the thinnest bullpen to having arguably the deepest. Takashi Saito and Craig Breslow will join a relief corps that already has J.J. Putz, the underrated David Hernandez, Brad Ziegler, Joe Paterson and Bryan Shaw. The health of Putz will be crucial, as it was last year, because his presence as closer creates a structure.
[h3]6. Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
John Axford is firmly entrenched as an elite closer now, after collecting 46 saves and 86 strikeouts last season, and now Francisco Rodriguez is gritting his teeth and agreeing to come back to be a setup man. K-Rod was something of a distraction when he popped off about his role late in the year, and that overshadowed just how well he pitched for the Brewers. Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin places a lot of emphasis on the bullpen, and so it figures this group will improve as the season progresses.
[h3]7. St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]
At the end of the regular season, the Cardinals ranked 17th in bullpen ERA. But this was a group that evolved during the course of the season, as young relievers settled in, and by the time the Cardinals got to the World Series, it was a very different bullpen than it was in the frustrating days of early September. Jason Motte was never formally named the closer under Tony La Russa; maybe he'll get that title from Mike Matheny. Marc Rzepczynski is viewed as an untapped gem, and maybe with a full season working under pitching coach Dave Duncan, he'll become a dominant setup man.
[h3]8. Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nationals finished fifth in the majors in bullpen ERA, and a lot of that success was because of the work of Tyler Clippard, who had an 0.84 WHIP and held opponents to a .535 OPS. Clippard had the lowest BABIP among relievers with at least 60 innings last season, at .187, almost 100 points lower than in 2010, a sign that there could be some regression in 2012. But either way, Clippard is an effective setup man for Drew Storen, good anchors for what should be a good bullpen.
[h3]9. Miami Marlins[/h3]
The turnaround for this group last year was remarkable, and now Heath Bell steps in for the closer formerly known as Leo Nunez. He is surrounded by Mike Dunn, Edward Mujica, Ryan Webb and Randy Choate -- and remember, the Marlins' new ballpark is thought to be favorable for pitchers.
[h3]10a. Texas Rangers[/h3]
They've got a lot of great pieces and this could be a special group, depending on how a few things shake out:
A. Can Joe Nathan get back to being a frontline closer, as he takes over for Neftali Feliz?
B. Can Koji Uehara bounce back, after pitching terribly for the Rangers following a midseason trade?
C. Will the Rangers add another bullpen piece -- perhaps Alexi Ogando, if Texas chooses to shift him back to a relief role, or Andrew Bailey, who has been the subject of Rangers-Athletics trade talks?
[h3]10b. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies' relievers have an enormous advantage over other bullpens because, generally speaking, their workload is limited by the huge number of innings contributed by the front part of the team's rotation; because of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, no NL bullpen threw fewer innings than Philadelphia's Jonathan Papelbon, who takes over as the Phillies' closer, and while Antonio Bastardo appeared to tire in his first full season as a reliever, he was dominant for most of the summer. Michael Stutes and David Herndon were effective, as well, and it's possible that Brad Lidge will come back in a middle relief role.
[h3]10c. Cincinnati Reds[/h3]
The Reds have a lot of weapons, and they've added Sean Marshall, who is one of the best lefty relievers. But with Francisco Cordero still in free agency, the structure of the Cincinnati bullpen is still uncertain. Will Aroldis Chapman be a setup man? Who will be the closer? How will some of the Reds' relievers bounce back after a year of heavy work?
Top 10 rotations in MLB.
Spoiler [+]
If you want to start a fight the day after Christmas, just ask this question: What are the best rotations in the majors?
I asked that question on Twitter this morning, and given the passion built into the answers, you would've thought the question was about Democrats and Republicans, or the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street movement.
With just about all the best starting pitchers off the board -- Edwin Jackson is still out there, like the best thing on the shelf at the mall the day after Christmas -- we can make a fair assessment about how the Nationals' acquisition of Gio Gonzalez changes Washington, or how C.J. Wilson could augment the Angels. So here they are, the 10 best rotations in baseball:
[h3]1. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies lived up to the hype in 2011, leading the majors in starters' ERA by a little less than half a run. Roy Halladay is going to the Hall of Fame regardless of whether he throws another pitch, Cliff Lee was intermittently the most dominant pitcher in the majors during parts of the 2011 season, and Cole Hamels is exceptional and will be on a mission next season, as he prepares for free agency. When Roy Oswalt had back trouble, Vance Worley stepped in and held opponents to a .666 OPS (as a starting pitcher).
[h3]2. Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The Rays could have traded James Shields -- and it's still possible that they will -- but he is such a hugely important part of the staff's emotional core that Tampa Bay clung to him, knowing what this group could accomplish together. The Rays ranked first in the AL in rotation ERA in 2011, which is pretty incredible given the relative strength of the AL East's offenses. (Three AL East teams ranked in MLB's top six in runs scored.) Shields had a tremendous bounce-back season, finishing third in the AL in ERA. David Price is among the most dominant lefties in the majors -- CC Sabathia was the only southpaw with more strikeouts -- and Jeremy Hellickson was merely the AL Rookie of the Year. Now Matt Moore slides into this group, after frightening AL hitters in '11; it's a small sample, but Moore whiffed 15 in 9.1 innings with his easy power stuff.
The Rays are expected to trade either Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann sometime before the start of the 2012 season, but no matter who stays or who goes, it figures that Tampa Bay will have one of the most durable rotations in the AL next season. One hundred forty-eight of Tampa Bay's 162 starts in 2011 were made by the five guys projected to be in their rotation at the start of the season, a performance which is in keeping with the Rays' recent history. Whether it's because of age or the Rays' maintenance program or their scouting, Tampa Bay's starters take the ball.
[h3]3. Los Angeles Angels[/h3]
There were times in 2011 when C.J. Wilson hoisted the Rangers' staff onto his back, especially during the blistering days of August and early September, but he will not have to do that with the Angels, who have extraordinary depth and experience. Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana will probably slot in around Wilson at Nos. 1, 2 and 4 -- three starters who are capable of dominance on a given day. Santana seemed to grow as a pitcher in the second half of the season, as he refined the use of his breaking ball, and his 2.78 ERA after the All-Star break ranked fifth in the AL. It'll be interesting to see how No. 5 Jerome Williams fares after his nice showing late in the 2011 season; he's just 30 years old.
[h3]4. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
The Giants finished second to the Phillies in rotation ERA, with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and All-Star Ryan Vogelsong leading the way; Madison Bumgarner appears ready to climb into the next level of starters, based on his month-by-month ERA:
April: 6.17
May: 2.21
June: 4.28
July: 3.69
August: 2.30
September: 2.01
With Jonathan Sanchez gone, Eric Surkamp figures to battle Barry Zito for the No. 5 spot in the rotation; Zito is down to the final two years of his seven-year, $126 million contract.
[h3]5. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
It's a deep group that thrived in 2011 despite working in a park generally viewed as a hitters' haven. Ian Kennedy finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting this year, as he learned to use his fastball. And Daniel Hudson demonstrated great command, walking only 50 in 222 innings -- and now the Diamondbacks have added ground-ball machine Trevor Cahill in a trade with the Oakland Athletics. Scouts say that Cahill seemed to lose some sink on his fastball in 2011, along with his mechanical consistency, and there is optimism in the Arizona organization that Cahill will work well with pitching coach Charles Nagy. Josh Collmenter is lined up as Arizona's No. 4, with the No. 5 starter still to be determined, but part of what should make this rotation great is the strength around it -- the Diamondbacks have an excellent pipeline of talent on the way, and a deep bullpen, as well.
[h3]6. Texas Rangers[/h3]C.J. Wilson's contributions to the Texas rotation were very underrated, but so too are the pitchers who will now make the starts. Derek Holland, long seen as a talented and erratic lefty, appeared to grow before our eyes in October, his confidence exploding as he threw well against the Cardinals. Colby Lewis is the plow horse of the group, slow and steady, while Neftali Feliz faces an adjustment period as he goes back to starting and again utilizes all of his pitches. Matt Harrison had a 3.39 ERA and made 30 starts, and Alexi Ogando had dominant stuff. To this mix, the Rangers are adding Yu Darvish, who is projected to be anywhere from a No. 2 starter to, at worst, a No. 4 type of innings eater, because of the natural sink on his fastball. By the way: It's not a done deal that the Rangers will trade one of their six starters, because they know as well as anyone that teams almost never get through a season with just five guys.
[h3]7. Detroit Tigers[/h3]
Justin Verlander is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and Most Valuable Player, yet he didn't even post the best ERA on his own team in the second half of the season. That belonged to Doug Fister, who thrived with Detroit after a midseason trade from Seattle; he had a 2.47 ERA after the All-Star break. Max Scherzer was better than his ERA indicated -- his bad starts were awful, and he had a lot of great starts -- and like Derek Holland, Rick Porcello appeared to learn some stuff about himself in the postseason; remember, Porcello doesn't turn 23 until Tuesday.
[h3]8. Washington Nationals[/h3]
In Jordan Zimmermann's first full season after Tommy John surgery, he threw 161.1 innings, and that's the kind of workload the Nationals envision for Stephen Strasburg in 2012, as Strasburg continues to progress from his elbow reconstruction. Given that dynamic, you aren't going to see a bunch of eight-inning outings from Zimmermann and Strasburg -- but they figure to be overpowering whenever they pitch. Zimmermann allowed just 31 walks, for a 4.00 K/BB ratio, and in Strasburg's 92 innings in the majors, he has 116 strikeouts and 19 walks, for a 6.11 K/BB ratio. And now the Nationals have Gio Gonzalez, who has emerged as one of the best young lefties in the game. It's possible that a year from now, we will view the front three of the Washington rotation as the best in the majors.
[h3]9. Seattle Mariners[/h3]
Scouts thought Felix Hernandez was a little bored in 2011, as if the frustration he managed to fend off during his Cy Young season of 2010 finally got to him in the Mariners' run-less 2011 season. For example, the opposing stolen bases against him doubled in '11, after Hernandez had worked to cut down on those numbers in the past. But King Felix is still regarded as one of the best in the game, at age 25, and he leads a rotation that has Michael Pineda.
[h3]10a. Atlanta Braves[/h3]
There are a whole lot of questions about the Atlanta rotation, and those start with Tommy Hanson, who was hampered by shoulder problems down the stretch. Were those just minor problems that will disappear or, as rival scouts fear, the first manifestation of Hanson's unusual delivery? Second question: What is Jair Jurrjens? Is he a solid front-of-the-rotation starter, or is he destined to battle injury problems -- and if he is really good, rival executives ask, why are the Braves willing to move him, in the same winter they've already unloaded Derek Lowe? But no matter how their rotation shakes out, they should be good, with Tim Hudson at the front and Brandon Beachy in the middle and a whole lot of talent ascending from the minors.
[h3]10b. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]Oh, sure, some of it's the park, and some of it's the division, and a whole lot of it is Clayton Kershaw, but the Dodgers ranked third in the majors in rotation ERA in 2011. Kershaw is probably the most coveted pitcher in the majors right now, given that he doesn't turn 24 until March and he already has had a season in which he posted baseball's lowest ERA. In the second half of the season, he went 12-1 with a 1.31 ERA, and that's a pretty good guy to have as an anchor to a rotation. Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly are the No. 2 and No. 3 starters for the Dodgers; Hiroki Kuroda will be missed.
The Cardinals could jump into this group, depending on how quickly Adam Wainwright rebounds, and the Brewers -- who had solid work out of their rotation in 2011 -- could, as well, depending on what Zack Greinke gives them.
I asked that question on Twitter this morning, and given the passion built into the answers, you would've thought the question was about Democrats and Republicans, or the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street movement.
With just about all the best starting pitchers off the board -- Edwin Jackson is still out there, like the best thing on the shelf at the mall the day after Christmas -- we can make a fair assessment about how the Nationals' acquisition of Gio Gonzalez changes Washington, or how C.J. Wilson could augment the Angels. So here they are, the 10 best rotations in baseball:
[h3]1. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies lived up to the hype in 2011, leading the majors in starters' ERA by a little less than half a run. Roy Halladay is going to the Hall of Fame regardless of whether he throws another pitch, Cliff Lee was intermittently the most dominant pitcher in the majors during parts of the 2011 season, and Cole Hamels is exceptional and will be on a mission next season, as he prepares for free agency. When Roy Oswalt had back trouble, Vance Worley stepped in and held opponents to a .666 OPS (as a starting pitcher).
[h3]2. Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The Rays could have traded James Shields -- and it's still possible that they will -- but he is such a hugely important part of the staff's emotional core that Tampa Bay clung to him, knowing what this group could accomplish together. The Rays ranked first in the AL in rotation ERA in 2011, which is pretty incredible given the relative strength of the AL East's offenses. (Three AL East teams ranked in MLB's top six in runs scored.) Shields had a tremendous bounce-back season, finishing third in the AL in ERA. David Price is among the most dominant lefties in the majors -- CC Sabathia was the only southpaw with more strikeouts -- and Jeremy Hellickson was merely the AL Rookie of the Year. Now Matt Moore slides into this group, after frightening AL hitters in '11; it's a small sample, but Moore whiffed 15 in 9.1 innings with his easy power stuff.
The Rays are expected to trade either Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann sometime before the start of the 2012 season, but no matter who stays or who goes, it figures that Tampa Bay will have one of the most durable rotations in the AL next season. One hundred forty-eight of Tampa Bay's 162 starts in 2011 were made by the five guys projected to be in their rotation at the start of the season, a performance which is in keeping with the Rays' recent history. Whether it's because of age or the Rays' maintenance program or their scouting, Tampa Bay's starters take the ball.
[h3]3. Los Angeles Angels[/h3]
There were times in 2011 when C.J. Wilson hoisted the Rangers' staff onto his back, especially during the blistering days of August and early September, but he will not have to do that with the Angels, who have extraordinary depth and experience. Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana will probably slot in around Wilson at Nos. 1, 2 and 4 -- three starters who are capable of dominance on a given day. Santana seemed to grow as a pitcher in the second half of the season, as he refined the use of his breaking ball, and his 2.78 ERA after the All-Star break ranked fifth in the AL. It'll be interesting to see how No. 5 Jerome Williams fares after his nice showing late in the 2011 season; he's just 30 years old.
[h3]4. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
The Giants finished second to the Phillies in rotation ERA, with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and All-Star Ryan Vogelsong leading the way; Madison Bumgarner appears ready to climb into the next level of starters, based on his month-by-month ERA:
April: 6.17
May: 2.21
June: 4.28
July: 3.69
August: 2.30
September: 2.01
With Jonathan Sanchez gone, Eric Surkamp figures to battle Barry Zito for the No. 5 spot in the rotation; Zito is down to the final two years of his seven-year, $126 million contract.
[h3]5. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
It's a deep group that thrived in 2011 despite working in a park generally viewed as a hitters' haven. Ian Kennedy finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting this year, as he learned to use his fastball. And Daniel Hudson demonstrated great command, walking only 50 in 222 innings -- and now the Diamondbacks have added ground-ball machine Trevor Cahill in a trade with the Oakland Athletics. Scouts say that Cahill seemed to lose some sink on his fastball in 2011, along with his mechanical consistency, and there is optimism in the Arizona organization that Cahill will work well with pitching coach Charles Nagy. Josh Collmenter is lined up as Arizona's No. 4, with the No. 5 starter still to be determined, but part of what should make this rotation great is the strength around it -- the Diamondbacks have an excellent pipeline of talent on the way, and a deep bullpen, as well.
[h3]6. Texas Rangers[/h3]C.J. Wilson's contributions to the Texas rotation were very underrated, but so too are the pitchers who will now make the starts. Derek Holland, long seen as a talented and erratic lefty, appeared to grow before our eyes in October, his confidence exploding as he threw well against the Cardinals. Colby Lewis is the plow horse of the group, slow and steady, while Neftali Feliz faces an adjustment period as he goes back to starting and again utilizes all of his pitches. Matt Harrison had a 3.39 ERA and made 30 starts, and Alexi Ogando had dominant stuff. To this mix, the Rangers are adding Yu Darvish, who is projected to be anywhere from a No. 2 starter to, at worst, a No. 4 type of innings eater, because of the natural sink on his fastball. By the way: It's not a done deal that the Rangers will trade one of their six starters, because they know as well as anyone that teams almost never get through a season with just five guys.
[h3]7. Detroit Tigers[/h3]
Justin Verlander is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and Most Valuable Player, yet he didn't even post the best ERA on his own team in the second half of the season. That belonged to Doug Fister, who thrived with Detroit after a midseason trade from Seattle; he had a 2.47 ERA after the All-Star break. Max Scherzer was better than his ERA indicated -- his bad starts were awful, and he had a lot of great starts -- and like Derek Holland, Rick Porcello appeared to learn some stuff about himself in the postseason; remember, Porcello doesn't turn 23 until Tuesday.
[h3]8. Washington Nationals[/h3]
In Jordan Zimmermann's first full season after Tommy John surgery, he threw 161.1 innings, and that's the kind of workload the Nationals envision for Stephen Strasburg in 2012, as Strasburg continues to progress from his elbow reconstruction. Given that dynamic, you aren't going to see a bunch of eight-inning outings from Zimmermann and Strasburg -- but they figure to be overpowering whenever they pitch. Zimmermann allowed just 31 walks, for a 4.00 K/BB ratio, and in Strasburg's 92 innings in the majors, he has 116 strikeouts and 19 walks, for a 6.11 K/BB ratio. And now the Nationals have Gio Gonzalez, who has emerged as one of the best young lefties in the game. It's possible that a year from now, we will view the front three of the Washington rotation as the best in the majors.
[h3]9. Seattle Mariners[/h3]
Scouts thought Felix Hernandez was a little bored in 2011, as if the frustration he managed to fend off during his Cy Young season of 2010 finally got to him in the Mariners' run-less 2011 season. For example, the opposing stolen bases against him doubled in '11, after Hernandez had worked to cut down on those numbers in the past. But King Felix is still regarded as one of the best in the game, at age 25, and he leads a rotation that has Michael Pineda.
[h3]10a. Atlanta Braves[/h3]
There are a whole lot of questions about the Atlanta rotation, and those start with Tommy Hanson, who was hampered by shoulder problems down the stretch. Were those just minor problems that will disappear or, as rival scouts fear, the first manifestation of Hanson's unusual delivery? Second question: What is Jair Jurrjens? Is he a solid front-of-the-rotation starter, or is he destined to battle injury problems -- and if he is really good, rival executives ask, why are the Braves willing to move him, in the same winter they've already unloaded Derek Lowe? But no matter how their rotation shakes out, they should be good, with Tim Hudson at the front and Brandon Beachy in the middle and a whole lot of talent ascending from the minors.
[h3]10b. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]Oh, sure, some of it's the park, and some of it's the division, and a whole lot of it is Clayton Kershaw, but the Dodgers ranked third in the majors in rotation ERA in 2011. Kershaw is probably the most coveted pitcher in the majors right now, given that he doesn't turn 24 until March and he already has had a season in which he posted baseball's lowest ERA. In the second half of the season, he went 12-1 with a 1.31 ERA, and that's a pretty good guy to have as an anchor to a rotation. Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly are the No. 2 and No. 3 starters for the Dodgers; Hiroki Kuroda will be missed.
The Cardinals could jump into this group, depending on how quickly Adam Wainwright rebounds, and the Brewers -- who had solid work out of their rotation in 2011 -- could, as well, depending on what Zack Greinke gives them.
Which active players are going to Cooperstown?
Spoiler [+]
Yesterday, we talked about Alan Trammell‘s case for Hall of Fame induction, and if you’ve been surfing the baseball newspapers lately, you’re probably come across arguments for or against most of the other bubble candidates on this year’s ballot. While there’s certainly value in discussing the credentials of guys Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker, we’ve also been having those conversations for several years now, and the facts haven’t changed since the last time we reviewed their candidacy. So, today, I want to turn my Cooperstown-related focus to the guys that are still playing.
Given what we know today, which active players are going to end in the Hall of Fame? And which ones should, but look unlikely to get the necessary support? Is anyone currently playing likely to get inducted that doesn’t actually deserve it? Let’s take a look at the current crop of players and where they’re likely to end up, at least with what we know at the moment.
No-brainer, first ballot, let’s not even bother arguing.
Albert Pujols (+87.8 WAR), Chipper Jones (+87.5 WAR), Derek Jeter (+74.4 WAR), Ivan Rodriguez (+73.4 WAR), Mariano Rivera (+39.0 WAR/+54.6 WPA).
Really, if you don’t think any of these guys belong, you’re a super-small Hall guy and there are only about 10 people in your personal HOF. That’s fine, I guess, but I don’t think that’s the standard most people want to see enforced. Each of these are among the very best to ever play the game at their position.
Would be a no-brainer, but STEROIDS!!!!
Alex Rodriguez (+112.5 WAR).
A-Rod gets his own category. You could maybe put Manny Ramirez (+69.6 WAR) here too, but calling him active is a bit of a stretch, and I’m not sure he’d have gotten in easily even without the PED suspensions. His defense and “Manny Being Manny
Given what we know today, which active players are going to end in the Hall of Fame? And which ones should, but look unlikely to get the necessary support? Is anyone currently playing likely to get inducted that doesn’t actually deserve it? Let’s take a look at the current crop of players and where they’re likely to end up, at least with what we know at the moment.
No-brainer, first ballot, let’s not even bother arguing.
Albert Pujols (+87.8 WAR), Chipper Jones (+87.5 WAR), Derek Jeter (+74.4 WAR), Ivan Rodriguez (+73.4 WAR), Mariano Rivera (+39.0 WAR/+54.6 WPA).
Really, if you don’t think any of these guys belong, you’re a super-small Hall guy and there are only about 10 people in your personal HOF. That’s fine, I guess, but I don’t think that’s the standard most people want to see enforced. Each of these are among the very best to ever play the game at their position.
Would be a no-brainer, but STEROIDS!!!!
Alex Rodriguez (+112.5 WAR).
A-Rod gets his own category. You could maybe put Manny Ramirez (+69.6 WAR) here too, but calling him active is a bit of a stretch, and I’m not sure he’d have gotten in easily even without the PED suspensions. His defense and “Manny Being Manny
Biggest prospect flops of 2011.
Top 10 bullpens in MLB.
Top 10 rotations in MLB.
Which active players are going to Cooperstown?
Spoiler [+]
It was a very good year, it was a very bad year.
That's how any prospect follower can feel when reviewing where a prospect stood in the industry.
Here are 10 players who might like to forget what happened in 2011 and hope that a change of the calendar can help them turn it around in 2012.
[h3]Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The last time we saw the good version of Brown was mid-2010. Since then, he was called up to the big leagues but given inconsistent playing time, had a horrible spring training while trying to adjust his swing and didn't play especially well at any level in 2011.
"I think it will happen for him, but I don't think it will happen in Philly," said a rival National League executive. "I bet he's gone by midseason in their next big trade."
[h3]Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
Drabek entered the 2011 season as the Blue Jays' best prospect and a Rookie of the Year candidate but struggled with command and went backward following a demotion to Triple-A.
Still, his stuff -- including a plus fastball and plus-plus curveball -- is still there.
"I still like him a lot," said one scouting executive, adding that a move to the bullpen might better suit his pitch inefficiency and fiery makeup.
[h3]Wilmer Flores, SS, New York Mets[/h3]
Flores has long been seen as one of the Mets' top prospects, but that's mostly been because of his age and level.
In 2011, he proved to still be more potential than reality, and nobody thinks he can stay at shortstop long-term, putting even more pressure on the bat.
"Sure he was good in the Sally League at 17, but he hasn't done much since," said one evaluator. "The tools don't even profile for a corner, which is where people will think he'll end up."
[h3]Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins[/h3]
Few prospects in baseball draw more diverse opinions than Hicks, who provides top-of-the-line tools and precious little to show for it on the stat sheet.
With more than 1,500 minor league plate appearances, the 2008 first-round pick has hit .266/.377/.407 without reaching the upper levels. But while some are ready to give up on him, others have yet to waver in their belief.
"I'd take him in a second," said one exec. "There are three things that never slump: patience, power and defense, and he has all three."
[h3]Jose Iglesias, SS, Boston Red Sox[/h3]
When the Red Sox gave big money to the Cuban defector in 2009, the praise was universal for his glove work but there were plenty of questions about his bat.
Iglesias shocked the industry by hitting .295 in 2010, but after a miserable .235/.285/.269 line at Triple-A Pawtucket in 2011, all of the concerns are back, even with the best defensive skills in the minors.
"Sure he's a great defender, but he just can't hit a lick," said one scouting official. "For me, he's just Rey Ordonez, Part II."
[h3]Trey McNutt, RHP, Chicago Cubs[/h3]
McNutt came out of nowhere in 2010, leaving scouts wondering how a big-framed power right-hander who can touch the upper 90s and back it up with a plus slider could last into the 32nd round.
Spending the entire year in Double-A, McNutt struggled with a variety of maladies and didn't pitch well when healthy, finishing with a 4.55 ERA while allowing 120 hits in 95 innings.
"I like him as a bounce-back candidate because he has really good stuff," said a scouting executive. "But our people had concerns about why he suddenly stopped missing bats."
[h3]Mike Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals[/h3]
The Royals entered 2011 with a quartet of impressive left-handers in the upper levels. While Danny Duffy had his moments in the big leagues, the other three went backward, as John Lamb had Tommy John surgery and Chris Dwyer and Montgomery scuffled with their mechanics (and therefore their command and control).
Still, the stuff is still there, and that's what scouts look for.
"I still like him a lot and think he could be in the Royals rotation at some point in 2012," said one scout, who added that his upside is more middle of the rotation than that of a future star. "More John Danks than Cole Hamels."
[h3]Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Red Sox[/h3]
Ranaudo entered the spring of 2010 as the best college pitcher in the country according to some, but elbow problems hurt his draft status, leading to him pitching his way to a $2.55 million bonus with a strong showing in the Cape Cod League. He impressed last year in the South Atlantic League, but scouting reports matched his substandard showing following a promotion to High-A.
"He's overrated because of the bonus, the Cape showing, the size, the Red Sox, just everything," said one executive. "He maybe has a chance as a bottom rotation guy, but he isn't anything special."
Another scout was even lower on him, pegging him as a future middle reliever. "His fastball is just good, no other pitch is plus, and if you had no idea of his background, he'd be just another guy."
[h3]Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
No prospect in the Pirates system took a bigger hit in 2011 than Sanchez, who entered the year with a shot at making the big leagues quickly but never got out of Double-A while limping to the finish with a batting line of .241/.340/.318.
"He's a good defender, a great makeup guy, but the fact remains that he's just a fringy bat," said one scout. "I could see him one day playing every day for Pittsburgh, but he's not going to be a difference-maker."
[h3]Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Texas Rangers[/h3]
The point at which Scheppers went south is clear. He started the 2010 season by dominating out of the bullpen and was on the verge of the big leagues when the Rangers decided to see if he could work as a starter.
He's simply never been the same since, and a return to the bullpen has not brought his stuff all the way back to 2010 levels.
"I think he's still a potential seventh- or eighth-inning guy, but I'd be wary of him in a deal," said one front office member. "There are a lot of red flags, from the control, the delivery, and most of all the injury history."
That's how any prospect follower can feel when reviewing where a prospect stood in the industry.
Here are 10 players who might like to forget what happened in 2011 and hope that a change of the calendar can help them turn it around in 2012.
[h3]Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The last time we saw the good version of Brown was mid-2010. Since then, he was called up to the big leagues but given inconsistent playing time, had a horrible spring training while trying to adjust his swing and didn't play especially well at any level in 2011.
"I think it will happen for him, but I don't think it will happen in Philly," said a rival National League executive. "I bet he's gone by midseason in their next big trade."
[h3]Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
Drabek entered the 2011 season as the Blue Jays' best prospect and a Rookie of the Year candidate but struggled with command and went backward following a demotion to Triple-A.
Still, his stuff -- including a plus fastball and plus-plus curveball -- is still there.
"I still like him a lot," said one scouting executive, adding that a move to the bullpen might better suit his pitch inefficiency and fiery makeup.
[h3]Wilmer Flores, SS, New York Mets[/h3]
Flores has long been seen as one of the Mets' top prospects, but that's mostly been because of his age and level.
In 2011, he proved to still be more potential than reality, and nobody thinks he can stay at shortstop long-term, putting even more pressure on the bat.
"Sure he was good in the Sally League at 17, but he hasn't done much since," said one evaluator. "The tools don't even profile for a corner, which is where people will think he'll end up."
[h3]Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins[/h3]
Few prospects in baseball draw more diverse opinions than Hicks, who provides top-of-the-line tools and precious little to show for it on the stat sheet.
With more than 1,500 minor league plate appearances, the 2008 first-round pick has hit .266/.377/.407 without reaching the upper levels. But while some are ready to give up on him, others have yet to waver in their belief.
"I'd take him in a second," said one exec. "There are three things that never slump: patience, power and defense, and he has all three."
[h3]Jose Iglesias, SS, Boston Red Sox[/h3]
When the Red Sox gave big money to the Cuban defector in 2009, the praise was universal for his glove work but there were plenty of questions about his bat.
Iglesias shocked the industry by hitting .295 in 2010, but after a miserable .235/.285/.269 line at Triple-A Pawtucket in 2011, all of the concerns are back, even with the best defensive skills in the minors.
"Sure he's a great defender, but he just can't hit a lick," said one scouting official. "For me, he's just Rey Ordonez, Part II."
[h3]Trey McNutt, RHP, Chicago Cubs[/h3]
McNutt came out of nowhere in 2010, leaving scouts wondering how a big-framed power right-hander who can touch the upper 90s and back it up with a plus slider could last into the 32nd round.
Spending the entire year in Double-A, McNutt struggled with a variety of maladies and didn't pitch well when healthy, finishing with a 4.55 ERA while allowing 120 hits in 95 innings.
"I like him as a bounce-back candidate because he has really good stuff," said a scouting executive. "But our people had concerns about why he suddenly stopped missing bats."
[h3]Mike Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals[/h3]
The Royals entered 2011 with a quartet of impressive left-handers in the upper levels. While Danny Duffy had his moments in the big leagues, the other three went backward, as John Lamb had Tommy John surgery and Chris Dwyer and Montgomery scuffled with their mechanics (and therefore their command and control).
Still, the stuff is still there, and that's what scouts look for.
"I still like him a lot and think he could be in the Royals rotation at some point in 2012," said one scout, who added that his upside is more middle of the rotation than that of a future star. "More John Danks than Cole Hamels."
[h3]Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Red Sox[/h3]
Ranaudo entered the spring of 2010 as the best college pitcher in the country according to some, but elbow problems hurt his draft status, leading to him pitching his way to a $2.55 million bonus with a strong showing in the Cape Cod League. He impressed last year in the South Atlantic League, but scouting reports matched his substandard showing following a promotion to High-A.
"He's overrated because of the bonus, the Cape showing, the size, the Red Sox, just everything," said one executive. "He maybe has a chance as a bottom rotation guy, but he isn't anything special."
Another scout was even lower on him, pegging him as a future middle reliever. "His fastball is just good, no other pitch is plus, and if you had no idea of his background, he'd be just another guy."
[h3]Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
No prospect in the Pirates system took a bigger hit in 2011 than Sanchez, who entered the year with a shot at making the big leagues quickly but never got out of Double-A while limping to the finish with a batting line of .241/.340/.318.
"He's a good defender, a great makeup guy, but the fact remains that he's just a fringy bat," said one scout. "I could see him one day playing every day for Pittsburgh, but he's not going to be a difference-maker."
[h3]Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Texas Rangers[/h3]
The point at which Scheppers went south is clear. He started the 2010 season by dominating out of the bullpen and was on the verge of the big leagues when the Rangers decided to see if he could work as a starter.
He's simply never been the same since, and a return to the bullpen has not brought his stuff all the way back to 2010 levels.
"I think he's still a potential seventh- or eighth-inning guy, but I'd be wary of him in a deal," said one front office member. "There are a lot of red flags, from the control, the delivery, and most of all the injury history."
Top 10 bullpens in MLB.
Spoiler [+]
[h3]1. Atlanta Braves[/h3]
At the end of the season, it got very ugly for this bullpen, as all of the young Atlanta relievers appeared to wear down under the strain of a staggering workload. Typically, the bullpens that rack up the most innings are those attached to terrible rotations, but incredibly, Atlanta compiled almost 50 more innings than any team that made the playoffs -- and remember, the Braves nearly won the NL wild card. Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty and Craig Kimbrel all pitched in more games in 2011 than either Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman pitched in any season of their entire careers. That's crazy. Venters threw 88 innings in 85 games, and Kimbrel had 77 innings in 79 games.
But for most of the season, the Atlanta relief was spectacular. The Braves' bullpen was No. 1 in relief ERA in 2011, and there's no reason to think the Braves' pitchers can't repeat that performance. Kimbrel and Venters have ridiculous stuff, and presumably, with the benefit of hindsight, Atlanta's staff will make adjustments on how their three primary relievers are utilized. This year, Kris Medlen -- now fully recovered from elbow surgery -- will join the group. And the Braves also got great work out of two waiver claims, Cristhian Martinez (who had an 0.97 WHIP) and Anthony Varvaro (1.08 WHIP).
[h3]2. New York Yankees[/h3]
There will be a day when Rivera will walk away from baseball, when the greatest closer in history will finally retire; No. 42 just turned 42 years old. But he's got one year left on his contract and there are still no major signs of regression in his performance -- with his fastball in the 89-92 mph range, he held opponents to a .534 OPS last year. David Robertson is to right-handed setup men what Venters is to lefties: arguably the best going. He allowed one homer in 235 at-bats last season, and with the bases loaded, opposing hitters were 1-for-19 with 14 strikeouts. Rafael Soriano is probably overpaid for his position on the team, but he pitched more effectively in the second half of the year, and sometime this season Joba Chamberlain will probably join to split the work in the middle innings. The Yankees don't have a shut-down lefty, as the Braves do, but their right-handers are excellent against lefties.
[h3]3. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
They ranked second in the majors in bullpen ERA, despite the intermittent physical troubles of closer Brian Wilson. Sergio Romo averaged 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and right-handers had a .177 on-base percentage against him last season. And the Giants have balance, too, with Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt.
[h3]4. Cleveland Indians[/h3]
Chris Perez was an All-Star closer, racking up 36 saves, and he is surrounded by a dangerous and diverse group -- Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez and Nick Hagadone.
The Indians' bullpen may well benefit from a solid (if unspectacular) rotation that should consistently take the ball into the sixth and seventh innings.
[h3]5. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
The D-backs have gone from having perhaps the thinnest bullpen to having arguably the deepest. Takashi Saito and Craig Breslow will join a relief corps that already has J.J. Putz, the underrated David Hernandez, Brad Ziegler, Joe Paterson and Bryan Shaw. The health of Putz will be crucial, as it was last year, because his presence as closer creates a structure.
[h3]6. Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
John Axford is firmly entrenched as an elite closer now, after collecting 46 saves and 86 strikeouts last season, and now Francisco Rodriguez is gritting his teeth and agreeing to come back to be a setup man. K-Rod was something of a distraction when he popped off about his role late in the year, and that overshadowed just how well he pitched for the Brewers. Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin places a lot of emphasis on the bullpen, and so it figures this group will improve as the season progresses.
[h3]7. St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]
At the end of the regular season, the Cardinals ranked 17th in bullpen ERA. But this was a group that evolved during the course of the season, as young relievers settled in, and by the time the Cardinals got to the World Series, it was a very different bullpen than it was in the frustrating days of early September. Jason Motte was never formally named the closer under Tony La Russa; maybe he'll get that title from Mike Matheny. Marc Rzepczynski is viewed as an untapped gem, and maybe with a full season working under pitching coach Dave Duncan, he'll become a dominant setup man.
[h3]8. Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nationals finished fifth in the majors in bullpen ERA, and a lot of that success was because of the work of Tyler Clippard, who had an 0.84 WHIP and held opponents to a .535 OPS. Clippard had the lowest BABIP among relievers with at least 60 innings last season, at .187, almost 100 points lower than in 2010, a sign that there could be some regression in 2012. But either way, Clippard is an effective setup man for Drew Storen, good anchors for what should be a good bullpen.
[h3]9. Miami Marlins[/h3]
The turnaround for this group last year was remarkable, and now Heath Bell steps in for the closer formerly known as Leo Nunez. He is surrounded by Mike Dunn, Edward Mujica, Ryan Webb and Randy Choate -- and remember, the Marlins' new ballpark is thought to be favorable for pitchers.
[h3]10a. Texas Rangers[/h3]
They've got a lot of great pieces and this could be a special group, depending on how a few things shake out:
A. Can Joe Nathan get back to being a frontline closer, as he takes over for Neftali Feliz?
B. Can Koji Uehara bounce back, after pitching terribly for the Rangers following a midseason trade?
C. Will the Rangers add another bullpen piece -- perhaps Alexi Ogando, if Texas chooses to shift him back to a relief role, or Andrew Bailey, who has been the subject of Rangers-Athletics trade talks?
[h3]10b. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies' relievers have an enormous advantage over other bullpens because, generally speaking, their workload is limited by the huge number of innings contributed by the front part of the team's rotation; because of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, no NL bullpen threw fewer innings than Philadelphia's Jonathan Papelbon, who takes over as the Phillies' closer, and while Antonio Bastardo appeared to tire in his first full season as a reliever, he was dominant for most of the summer. Michael Stutes and David Herndon were effective, as well, and it's possible that Brad Lidge will come back in a middle relief role.
[h3]10c. Cincinnati Reds[/h3]
The Reds have a lot of weapons, and they've added Sean Marshall, who is one of the best lefty relievers. But with Francisco Cordero still in free agency, the structure of the Cincinnati bullpen is still uncertain. Will Aroldis Chapman be a setup man? Who will be the closer? How will some of the Reds' relievers bounce back after a year of heavy work?
At the end of the season, it got very ugly for this bullpen, as all of the young Atlanta relievers appeared to wear down under the strain of a staggering workload. Typically, the bullpens that rack up the most innings are those attached to terrible rotations, but incredibly, Atlanta compiled almost 50 more innings than any team that made the playoffs -- and remember, the Braves nearly won the NL wild card. Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty and Craig Kimbrel all pitched in more games in 2011 than either Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman pitched in any season of their entire careers. That's crazy. Venters threw 88 innings in 85 games, and Kimbrel had 77 innings in 79 games.
But for most of the season, the Atlanta relief was spectacular. The Braves' bullpen was No. 1 in relief ERA in 2011, and there's no reason to think the Braves' pitchers can't repeat that performance. Kimbrel and Venters have ridiculous stuff, and presumably, with the benefit of hindsight, Atlanta's staff will make adjustments on how their three primary relievers are utilized. This year, Kris Medlen -- now fully recovered from elbow surgery -- will join the group. And the Braves also got great work out of two waiver claims, Cristhian Martinez (who had an 0.97 WHIP) and Anthony Varvaro (1.08 WHIP).
[h3]2. New York Yankees[/h3]
There will be a day when Rivera will walk away from baseball, when the greatest closer in history will finally retire; No. 42 just turned 42 years old. But he's got one year left on his contract and there are still no major signs of regression in his performance -- with his fastball in the 89-92 mph range, he held opponents to a .534 OPS last year. David Robertson is to right-handed setup men what Venters is to lefties: arguably the best going. He allowed one homer in 235 at-bats last season, and with the bases loaded, opposing hitters were 1-for-19 with 14 strikeouts. Rafael Soriano is probably overpaid for his position on the team, but he pitched more effectively in the second half of the year, and sometime this season Joba Chamberlain will probably join to split the work in the middle innings. The Yankees don't have a shut-down lefty, as the Braves do, but their right-handers are excellent against lefties.
[h3]3. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
They ranked second in the majors in bullpen ERA, despite the intermittent physical troubles of closer Brian Wilson. Sergio Romo averaged 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and right-handers had a .177 on-base percentage against him last season. And the Giants have balance, too, with Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt.
[h3]4. Cleveland Indians[/h3]
Chris Perez was an All-Star closer, racking up 36 saves, and he is surrounded by a dangerous and diverse group -- Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez and Nick Hagadone.
The Indians' bullpen may well benefit from a solid (if unspectacular) rotation that should consistently take the ball into the sixth and seventh innings.
[h3]5. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
The D-backs have gone from having perhaps the thinnest bullpen to having arguably the deepest. Takashi Saito and Craig Breslow will join a relief corps that already has J.J. Putz, the underrated David Hernandez, Brad Ziegler, Joe Paterson and Bryan Shaw. The health of Putz will be crucial, as it was last year, because his presence as closer creates a structure.
[h3]6. Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
John Axford is firmly entrenched as an elite closer now, after collecting 46 saves and 86 strikeouts last season, and now Francisco Rodriguez is gritting his teeth and agreeing to come back to be a setup man. K-Rod was something of a distraction when he popped off about his role late in the year, and that overshadowed just how well he pitched for the Brewers. Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin places a lot of emphasis on the bullpen, and so it figures this group will improve as the season progresses.
[h3]7. St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]
At the end of the regular season, the Cardinals ranked 17th in bullpen ERA. But this was a group that evolved during the course of the season, as young relievers settled in, and by the time the Cardinals got to the World Series, it was a very different bullpen than it was in the frustrating days of early September. Jason Motte was never formally named the closer under Tony La Russa; maybe he'll get that title from Mike Matheny. Marc Rzepczynski is viewed as an untapped gem, and maybe with a full season working under pitching coach Dave Duncan, he'll become a dominant setup man.
[h3]8. Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nationals finished fifth in the majors in bullpen ERA, and a lot of that success was because of the work of Tyler Clippard, who had an 0.84 WHIP and held opponents to a .535 OPS. Clippard had the lowest BABIP among relievers with at least 60 innings last season, at .187, almost 100 points lower than in 2010, a sign that there could be some regression in 2012. But either way, Clippard is an effective setup man for Drew Storen, good anchors for what should be a good bullpen.
[h3]9. Miami Marlins[/h3]
The turnaround for this group last year was remarkable, and now Heath Bell steps in for the closer formerly known as Leo Nunez. He is surrounded by Mike Dunn, Edward Mujica, Ryan Webb and Randy Choate -- and remember, the Marlins' new ballpark is thought to be favorable for pitchers.
[h3]10a. Texas Rangers[/h3]
They've got a lot of great pieces and this could be a special group, depending on how a few things shake out:
A. Can Joe Nathan get back to being a frontline closer, as he takes over for Neftali Feliz?
B. Can Koji Uehara bounce back, after pitching terribly for the Rangers following a midseason trade?
C. Will the Rangers add another bullpen piece -- perhaps Alexi Ogando, if Texas chooses to shift him back to a relief role, or Andrew Bailey, who has been the subject of Rangers-Athletics trade talks?
[h3]10b. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies' relievers have an enormous advantage over other bullpens because, generally speaking, their workload is limited by the huge number of innings contributed by the front part of the team's rotation; because of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, no NL bullpen threw fewer innings than Philadelphia's Jonathan Papelbon, who takes over as the Phillies' closer, and while Antonio Bastardo appeared to tire in his first full season as a reliever, he was dominant for most of the summer. Michael Stutes and David Herndon were effective, as well, and it's possible that Brad Lidge will come back in a middle relief role.
[h3]10c. Cincinnati Reds[/h3]
The Reds have a lot of weapons, and they've added Sean Marshall, who is one of the best lefty relievers. But with Francisco Cordero still in free agency, the structure of the Cincinnati bullpen is still uncertain. Will Aroldis Chapman be a setup man? Who will be the closer? How will some of the Reds' relievers bounce back after a year of heavy work?
Top 10 rotations in MLB.
Spoiler [+]
If you want to start a fight the day after Christmas, just ask this question: What are the best rotations in the majors?
I asked that question on Twitter this morning, and given the passion built into the answers, you would've thought the question was about Democrats and Republicans, or the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street movement.
With just about all the best starting pitchers off the board -- Edwin Jackson is still out there, like the best thing on the shelf at the mall the day after Christmas -- we can make a fair assessment about how the Nationals' acquisition of Gio Gonzalez changes Washington, or how C.J. Wilson could augment the Angels. So here they are, the 10 best rotations in baseball:
[h3]1. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies lived up to the hype in 2011, leading the majors in starters' ERA by a little less than half a run. Roy Halladay is going to the Hall of Fame regardless of whether he throws another pitch, Cliff Lee was intermittently the most dominant pitcher in the majors during parts of the 2011 season, and Cole Hamels is exceptional and will be on a mission next season, as he prepares for free agency. When Roy Oswalt had back trouble, Vance Worley stepped in and held opponents to a .666 OPS (as a starting pitcher).
[h3]2. Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The Rays could have traded James Shields -- and it's still possible that they will -- but he is such a hugely important part of the staff's emotional core that Tampa Bay clung to him, knowing what this group could accomplish together. The Rays ranked first in the AL in rotation ERA in 2011, which is pretty incredible given the relative strength of the AL East's offenses. (Three AL East teams ranked in MLB's top six in runs scored.) Shields had a tremendous bounce-back season, finishing third in the AL in ERA. David Price is among the most dominant lefties in the majors -- CC Sabathia was the only southpaw with more strikeouts -- and Jeremy Hellickson was merely the AL Rookie of the Year. Now Matt Moore slides into this group, after frightening AL hitters in '11; it's a small sample, but Moore whiffed 15 in 9.1 innings with his easy power stuff.
The Rays are expected to trade either Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann sometime before the start of the 2012 season, but no matter who stays or who goes, it figures that Tampa Bay will have one of the most durable rotations in the AL next season. One hundred forty-eight of Tampa Bay's 162 starts in 2011 were made by the five guys projected to be in their rotation at the start of the season, a performance which is in keeping with the Rays' recent history. Whether it's because of age or the Rays' maintenance program or their scouting, Tampa Bay's starters take the ball.
[h3]3. Los Angeles Angels[/h3]
There were times in 2011 when C.J. Wilson hoisted the Rangers' staff onto his back, especially during the blistering days of August and early September, but he will not have to do that with the Angels, who have extraordinary depth and experience. Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana will probably slot in around Wilson at Nos. 1, 2 and 4 -- three starters who are capable of dominance on a given day. Santana seemed to grow as a pitcher in the second half of the season, as he refined the use of his breaking ball, and his 2.78 ERA after the All-Star break ranked fifth in the AL. It'll be interesting to see how No. 5 Jerome Williams fares after his nice showing late in the 2011 season; he's just 30 years old.
[h3]4. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
The Giants finished second to the Phillies in rotation ERA, with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and All-Star Ryan Vogelsong leading the way; Madison Bumgarner appears ready to climb into the next level of starters, based on his month-by-month ERA:
April: 6.17
May: 2.21
June: 4.28
July: 3.69
August: 2.30
September: 2.01
With Jonathan Sanchez gone, Eric Surkamp figures to battle Barry Zito for the No. 5 spot in the rotation; Zito is down to the final two years of his seven-year, $126 million contract.
[h3]5. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
It's a deep group that thrived in 2011 despite working in a park generally viewed as a hitters' haven. Ian Kennedy finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting this year, as he learned to use his fastball. And Daniel Hudson demonstrated great command, walking only 50 in 222 innings -- and now the Diamondbacks have added ground-ball machine Trevor Cahill in a trade with the Oakland Athletics. Scouts say that Cahill seemed to lose some sink on his fastball in 2011, along with his mechanical consistency, and there is optimism in the Arizona organization that Cahill will work well with pitching coach Charles Nagy. Josh Collmenter is lined up as Arizona's No. 4, with the No. 5 starter still to be determined, but part of what should make this rotation great is the strength around it -- the Diamondbacks have an excellent pipeline of talent on the way, and a deep bullpen, as well.
[h3]6. Texas Rangers[/h3]C.J. Wilson's contributions to the Texas rotation were very underrated, but so too are the pitchers who will now make the starts. Derek Holland, long seen as a talented and erratic lefty, appeared to grow before our eyes in October, his confidence exploding as he threw well against the Cardinals. Colby Lewis is the plow horse of the group, slow and steady, while Neftali Feliz faces an adjustment period as he goes back to starting and again utilizes all of his pitches. Matt Harrison had a 3.39 ERA and made 30 starts, and Alexi Ogando had dominant stuff. To this mix, the Rangers are adding Yu Darvish, who is projected to be anywhere from a No. 2 starter to, at worst, a No. 4 type of innings eater, because of the natural sink on his fastball. By the way: It's not a done deal that the Rangers will trade one of their six starters, because they know as well as anyone that teams almost never get through a season with just five guys.
[h3]7. Detroit Tigers[/h3]
Justin Verlander is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and Most Valuable Player, yet he didn't even post the best ERA on his own team in the second half of the season. That belonged to Doug Fister, who thrived with Detroit after a midseason trade from Seattle; he had a 2.47 ERA after the All-Star break. Max Scherzer was better than his ERA indicated -- his bad starts were awful, and he had a lot of great starts -- and like Derek Holland, Rick Porcello appeared to learn some stuff about himself in the postseason; remember, Porcello doesn't turn 23 until Tuesday.
[h3]8. Washington Nationals[/h3]
In Jordan Zimmermann's first full season after Tommy John surgery, he threw 161.1 innings, and that's the kind of workload the Nationals envision for Stephen Strasburg in 2012, as Strasburg continues to progress from his elbow reconstruction. Given that dynamic, you aren't going to see a bunch of eight-inning outings from Zimmermann and Strasburg -- but they figure to be overpowering whenever they pitch. Zimmermann allowed just 31 walks, for a 4.00 K/BB ratio, and in Strasburg's 92 innings in the majors, he has 116 strikeouts and 19 walks, for a 6.11 K/BB ratio. And now the Nationals have Gio Gonzalez, who has emerged as one of the best young lefties in the game. It's possible that a year from now, we will view the front three of the Washington rotation as the best in the majors.
[h3]9. Seattle Mariners[/h3]
Scouts thought Felix Hernandez was a little bored in 2011, as if the frustration he managed to fend off during his Cy Young season of 2010 finally got to him in the Mariners' run-less 2011 season. For example, the opposing stolen bases against him doubled in '11, after Hernandez had worked to cut down on those numbers in the past. But King Felix is still regarded as one of the best in the game, at age 25, and he leads a rotation that has Michael Pineda.
[h3]10a. Atlanta Braves[/h3]
There are a whole lot of questions about the Atlanta rotation, and those start with Tommy Hanson, who was hampered by shoulder problems down the stretch. Were those just minor problems that will disappear or, as rival scouts fear, the first manifestation of Hanson's unusual delivery? Second question: What is Jair Jurrjens? Is he a solid front-of-the-rotation starter, or is he destined to battle injury problems -- and if he is really good, rival executives ask, why are the Braves willing to move him, in the same winter they've already unloaded Derek Lowe? But no matter how their rotation shakes out, they should be good, with Tim Hudson at the front and Brandon Beachy in the middle and a whole lot of talent ascending from the minors.
[h3]10b. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]Oh, sure, some of it's the park, and some of it's the division, and a whole lot of it is Clayton Kershaw, but the Dodgers ranked third in the majors in rotation ERA in 2011. Kershaw is probably the most coveted pitcher in the majors right now, given that he doesn't turn 24 until March and he already has had a season in which he posted baseball's lowest ERA. In the second half of the season, he went 12-1 with a 1.31 ERA, and that's a pretty good guy to have as an anchor to a rotation. Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly are the No. 2 and No. 3 starters for the Dodgers; Hiroki Kuroda will be missed.
The Cardinals could jump into this group, depending on how quickly Adam Wainwright rebounds, and the Brewers -- who had solid work out of their rotation in 2011 -- could, as well, depending on what Zack Greinke gives them.
I asked that question on Twitter this morning, and given the passion built into the answers, you would've thought the question was about Democrats and Republicans, or the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street movement.
With just about all the best starting pitchers off the board -- Edwin Jackson is still out there, like the best thing on the shelf at the mall the day after Christmas -- we can make a fair assessment about how the Nationals' acquisition of Gio Gonzalez changes Washington, or how C.J. Wilson could augment the Angels. So here they are, the 10 best rotations in baseball:
[h3]1. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies lived up to the hype in 2011, leading the majors in starters' ERA by a little less than half a run. Roy Halladay is going to the Hall of Fame regardless of whether he throws another pitch, Cliff Lee was intermittently the most dominant pitcher in the majors during parts of the 2011 season, and Cole Hamels is exceptional and will be on a mission next season, as he prepares for free agency. When Roy Oswalt had back trouble, Vance Worley stepped in and held opponents to a .666 OPS (as a starting pitcher).
[h3]2. Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The Rays could have traded James Shields -- and it's still possible that they will -- but he is such a hugely important part of the staff's emotional core that Tampa Bay clung to him, knowing what this group could accomplish together. The Rays ranked first in the AL in rotation ERA in 2011, which is pretty incredible given the relative strength of the AL East's offenses. (Three AL East teams ranked in MLB's top six in runs scored.) Shields had a tremendous bounce-back season, finishing third in the AL in ERA. David Price is among the most dominant lefties in the majors -- CC Sabathia was the only southpaw with more strikeouts -- and Jeremy Hellickson was merely the AL Rookie of the Year. Now Matt Moore slides into this group, after frightening AL hitters in '11; it's a small sample, but Moore whiffed 15 in 9.1 innings with his easy power stuff.
The Rays are expected to trade either Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann sometime before the start of the 2012 season, but no matter who stays or who goes, it figures that Tampa Bay will have one of the most durable rotations in the AL next season. One hundred forty-eight of Tampa Bay's 162 starts in 2011 were made by the five guys projected to be in their rotation at the start of the season, a performance which is in keeping with the Rays' recent history. Whether it's because of age or the Rays' maintenance program or their scouting, Tampa Bay's starters take the ball.
[h3]3. Los Angeles Angels[/h3]
There were times in 2011 when C.J. Wilson hoisted the Rangers' staff onto his back, especially during the blistering days of August and early September, but he will not have to do that with the Angels, who have extraordinary depth and experience. Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana will probably slot in around Wilson at Nos. 1, 2 and 4 -- three starters who are capable of dominance on a given day. Santana seemed to grow as a pitcher in the second half of the season, as he refined the use of his breaking ball, and his 2.78 ERA after the All-Star break ranked fifth in the AL. It'll be interesting to see how No. 5 Jerome Williams fares after his nice showing late in the 2011 season; he's just 30 years old.
[h3]4. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
The Giants finished second to the Phillies in rotation ERA, with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and All-Star Ryan Vogelsong leading the way; Madison Bumgarner appears ready to climb into the next level of starters, based on his month-by-month ERA:
April: 6.17
May: 2.21
June: 4.28
July: 3.69
August: 2.30
September: 2.01
With Jonathan Sanchez gone, Eric Surkamp figures to battle Barry Zito for the No. 5 spot in the rotation; Zito is down to the final two years of his seven-year, $126 million contract.
[h3]5. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
It's a deep group that thrived in 2011 despite working in a park generally viewed as a hitters' haven. Ian Kennedy finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting this year, as he learned to use his fastball. And Daniel Hudson demonstrated great command, walking only 50 in 222 innings -- and now the Diamondbacks have added ground-ball machine Trevor Cahill in a trade with the Oakland Athletics. Scouts say that Cahill seemed to lose some sink on his fastball in 2011, along with his mechanical consistency, and there is optimism in the Arizona organization that Cahill will work well with pitching coach Charles Nagy. Josh Collmenter is lined up as Arizona's No. 4, with the No. 5 starter still to be determined, but part of what should make this rotation great is the strength around it -- the Diamondbacks have an excellent pipeline of talent on the way, and a deep bullpen, as well.
[h3]6. Texas Rangers[/h3]C.J. Wilson's contributions to the Texas rotation were very underrated, but so too are the pitchers who will now make the starts. Derek Holland, long seen as a talented and erratic lefty, appeared to grow before our eyes in October, his confidence exploding as he threw well against the Cardinals. Colby Lewis is the plow horse of the group, slow and steady, while Neftali Feliz faces an adjustment period as he goes back to starting and again utilizes all of his pitches. Matt Harrison had a 3.39 ERA and made 30 starts, and Alexi Ogando had dominant stuff. To this mix, the Rangers are adding Yu Darvish, who is projected to be anywhere from a No. 2 starter to, at worst, a No. 4 type of innings eater, because of the natural sink on his fastball. By the way: It's not a done deal that the Rangers will trade one of their six starters, because they know as well as anyone that teams almost never get through a season with just five guys.
[h3]7. Detroit Tigers[/h3]
Justin Verlander is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and Most Valuable Player, yet he didn't even post the best ERA on his own team in the second half of the season. That belonged to Doug Fister, who thrived with Detroit after a midseason trade from Seattle; he had a 2.47 ERA after the All-Star break. Max Scherzer was better than his ERA indicated -- his bad starts were awful, and he had a lot of great starts -- and like Derek Holland, Rick Porcello appeared to learn some stuff about himself in the postseason; remember, Porcello doesn't turn 23 until Tuesday.
[h3]8. Washington Nationals[/h3]
In Jordan Zimmermann's first full season after Tommy John surgery, he threw 161.1 innings, and that's the kind of workload the Nationals envision for Stephen Strasburg in 2012, as Strasburg continues to progress from his elbow reconstruction. Given that dynamic, you aren't going to see a bunch of eight-inning outings from Zimmermann and Strasburg -- but they figure to be overpowering whenever they pitch. Zimmermann allowed just 31 walks, for a 4.00 K/BB ratio, and in Strasburg's 92 innings in the majors, he has 116 strikeouts and 19 walks, for a 6.11 K/BB ratio. And now the Nationals have Gio Gonzalez, who has emerged as one of the best young lefties in the game. It's possible that a year from now, we will view the front three of the Washington rotation as the best in the majors.
[h3]9. Seattle Mariners[/h3]
Scouts thought Felix Hernandez was a little bored in 2011, as if the frustration he managed to fend off during his Cy Young season of 2010 finally got to him in the Mariners' run-less 2011 season. For example, the opposing stolen bases against him doubled in '11, after Hernandez had worked to cut down on those numbers in the past. But King Felix is still regarded as one of the best in the game, at age 25, and he leads a rotation that has Michael Pineda.
[h3]10a. Atlanta Braves[/h3]
There are a whole lot of questions about the Atlanta rotation, and those start with Tommy Hanson, who was hampered by shoulder problems down the stretch. Were those just minor problems that will disappear or, as rival scouts fear, the first manifestation of Hanson's unusual delivery? Second question: What is Jair Jurrjens? Is he a solid front-of-the-rotation starter, or is he destined to battle injury problems -- and if he is really good, rival executives ask, why are the Braves willing to move him, in the same winter they've already unloaded Derek Lowe? But no matter how their rotation shakes out, they should be good, with Tim Hudson at the front and Brandon Beachy in the middle and a whole lot of talent ascending from the minors.
[h3]10b. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]Oh, sure, some of it's the park, and some of it's the division, and a whole lot of it is Clayton Kershaw, but the Dodgers ranked third in the majors in rotation ERA in 2011. Kershaw is probably the most coveted pitcher in the majors right now, given that he doesn't turn 24 until March and he already has had a season in which he posted baseball's lowest ERA. In the second half of the season, he went 12-1 with a 1.31 ERA, and that's a pretty good guy to have as an anchor to a rotation. Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly are the No. 2 and No. 3 starters for the Dodgers; Hiroki Kuroda will be missed.
The Cardinals could jump into this group, depending on how quickly Adam Wainwright rebounds, and the Brewers -- who had solid work out of their rotation in 2011 -- could, as well, depending on what Zack Greinke gives them.
Which active players are going to Cooperstown?
Spoiler [+]
Yesterday, we talked about Alan Trammell‘s case for Hall of Fame induction, and if you’ve been surfing the baseball newspapers lately, you’re probably come across arguments for or against most of the other bubble candidates on this year’s ballot. While there’s certainly value in discussing the credentials of guys Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker, we’ve also been having those conversations for several years now, and the facts haven’t changed since the last time we reviewed their candidacy. So, today, I want to turn my Cooperstown-related focus to the guys that are still playing.
Given what we know today, which active players are going to end in the Hall of Fame? And which ones should, but look unlikely to get the necessary support? Is anyone currently playing likely to get inducted that doesn’t actually deserve it? Let’s take a look at the current crop of players and where they’re likely to end up, at least with what we know at the moment.
No-brainer, first ballot, let’s not even bother arguing.
Albert Pujols (+87.8 WAR), Chipper Jones (+87.5 WAR), Derek Jeter (+74.4 WAR), Ivan Rodriguez (+73.4 WAR), Mariano Rivera (+39.0 WAR/+54.6 WPA).
Really, if you don’t think any of these guys belong, you’re a super-small Hall guy and there are only about 10 people in your personal HOF. That’s fine, I guess, but I don’t think that’s the standard most people want to see enforced. Each of these are among the very best to ever play the game at their position.
Would be a no-brainer, but STEROIDS!!!!
Alex Rodriguez (+112.5 WAR).
A-Rod gets his own category. You could maybe put Manny Ramirez (+69.6 WAR) here too, but calling him active is a bit of a stretch, and I’m not sure he’d have gotten in easily even without the PED suspensions. His defense and “Manny Being Manny
Given what we know today, which active players are going to end in the Hall of Fame? And which ones should, but look unlikely to get the necessary support? Is anyone currently playing likely to get inducted that doesn’t actually deserve it? Let’s take a look at the current crop of players and where they’re likely to end up, at least with what we know at the moment.
No-brainer, first ballot, let’s not even bother arguing.
Albert Pujols (+87.8 WAR), Chipper Jones (+87.5 WAR), Derek Jeter (+74.4 WAR), Ivan Rodriguez (+73.4 WAR), Mariano Rivera (+39.0 WAR/+54.6 WPA).
Really, if you don’t think any of these guys belong, you’re a super-small Hall guy and there are only about 10 people in your personal HOF. That’s fine, I guess, but I don’t think that’s the standard most people want to see enforced. Each of these are among the very best to ever play the game at their position.
Would be a no-brainer, but STEROIDS!!!!
Alex Rodriguez (+112.5 WAR).
A-Rod gets his own category. You could maybe put Manny Ramirez (+69.6 WAR) here too, but calling him active is a bit of a stretch, and I’m not sure he’d have gotten in easily even without the PED suspensions. His defense and “Manny Being Manny
- Dec 1, 2009
- 8,406
- 41
I meant Michael Inoa,. Bye bailey
- Dec 1, 2009
- 8,406
- 41
I meant Michael Inoa,. Bye bailey
- Apr 15, 2005
- 11,588
- 837
Who does those top 10 lists?
- Apr 15, 2005
- 11,588
- 837
Who does those top 10 lists?
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
A's fire sale continues. Lew Wolfe gonna be cheap til they move to San Jose
- Status
