[h3]1.
Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
There's a lot that the Rays
don't know about their 2012 lineup -- the identity of the first baseman, for example, or the designated hitter. They could use another catcher. But here's what the Rays do know: Barring injury, they will throw out a starting pitcher capable of dominance on most days.
Dominance.
This is not a rotation of 4 2/3 innings and four-run performances; this is a rotation that led the AL in
starters' ERA last year despite inhabiting the same division as three of the nine highest-scoring lineups in the majors. Tampa Bay's starters led the American League in strikeouts, innings and WHIP, and held opponents to a .235 batting average. This is a rotation that has
James Shields,
David Price and AL Rookie of the Year
Jeremy Hellickson.
And into this mix the Rays will now add
Matt Moore, who has the numbers and the ability of
Stephen Strasburg but hasn't had the advance hype. It's worth reviewing all the numbers he put up in 2011, in the minors (155 innings) and majors (19.1, regular season and playoffs) combined:
Innings: 174.1
Hits: 113
Walks: 52
Strikeouts: 233
ERA: 1.91
The Rays won't have a dynamic offense, but they will (as usual) have one of the best defenses, and they should benefit from having
Evan Longoria healthy in the first half of the year -- he was greatly hampered last season -- as well as a full season of
Desmond Jennings, who had an
OPS-plus of 128 in 63 games last summer.
Look, the limitations for the Rays are inherent within the confines of their relatively miniscule payroll. A major injury to one of their core position players -- Longoria or
Ben Zobrist -- would be crushing. The
New York Yankees and
Boston Red Sox will probably add more before the trade deadline than the Rays, as they usually do. But the Rays' starting pitching makes them extremely dangerous, and as we sit here on New Year's Day 2012, they are the best team in the majors.
The
coming weeks will get interesting for the Rays, writes Marc Topkin.
[h3]2.
Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies won't have
Ryan Howard until sometime in midseason, and given the streaky nature of his production, they really don't know how much they'll get out of him after he comes back.
They would love to find an alternative to the oft-injured
Placido Polanco.
But as we saw in 2011, great pitching cures a lot of other ills, and the Phillies have the three monsters --
Roy Halladay,
Cliff Lee and
Cole Hamels -- and a new and established closer in
Jonathan Papelbon.
[h3]3. Texas Rangers[/h3]
The Rangers probably have more depth than any other organization, and they will be needed this year as they sort through new rotation and bullpen alignments.
Yu Darvish is not yet signed, but rival executives don't believe he has much leverage and will eventually work out a deal.
[h3]4. New York Yankees[/h3]
A year ago, the Yankees had major rotation questions, which prompted the rash signing of
Rafael Soriano -- and New York went on to win a league-high 97 games.
Ivan Nova is now established, and the Yankees feel good about the chances of
Phil Hughes rebounding.
The promotion of
Jesus Montero into the big leagues should provide a boost for an offense that finished second in run production last year.
And the Yankees continue to hoard the prospects of an improving farm system and wait for a deal for a big-time starting pitcher to develop.
[h3]5.
Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
The Diamondbacks' signature now is depth -- in its rotation, in its lineup, in its bullpen, in its stash of young pitching prospects.
It's an organization on the rise.
[h3]6. Boston Red Sox[/h3]
For all of its trouble, Boston should continue to be a strong regular-season team because of its extraordinary run production.
How far the Red Sox advance, in the summer and perhaps into October, will depend largely on how Bobby Valentine's pitching staff comes together.
Daniel Bard could be a major addition for the rotation, but an innings-eater for the rotation is needed.
[h3]7.
St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]
They won the World Series after running down the
Atlanta Braves for the wild card, and as hard as it is to imagine now that
Albert Pujols has left, the Cardinals might actually be a better team in 2012.
Adam Wainwright is back, the bullpen is settled, and the emergence of
David Freese and the addition of
Carlos Beltran should bolster the offense.
[h3]8. Detroit Tigers[/h3]
They are built around two superstars,
Justin Verlander and
Miguel Cabrera, who have a solid supporting cast -- catcher
Alex Avila, closer
Jose Valverde, designated hitter
Victor Martinez and
Brennan Boesch.
It doesn't hurt, either, that the Tigers play in one of the weakest divisions in baseball.
[h3]9.
Los Angeles Angels[/h3]
The Angels' rotation is spectacular, with
Jered Weaver,
Dan Haren,
C.J. Wilson and
Ervin Santana.
But there are questions at the back end of the bullpen, and some scouts wonder if the right-handedness of the everyday lineup will eventually become a serious problem.
Kendrys Morales could help balance the lineup, but it's unknown when or if he'll be back in the lineup.
[h3]10.
San Francisco Giants[/h3]
The Giants continue to have an excellent rotation and bullpen, and
Buster Posey is back at catcher.
Best of the rest: The Nationals, who would jump into the top 10 if they signed Fielder.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The
San Diego Padres traded for
Carlos Quentin. Josh Byrnes wanted
another threat for his lineup, writes Dan Hayes.
Some talent evaluators are saying that the Padres gave up almost nothing in the way of prospects with upside for Quentin, so for the
Chicago White Sox, the primary benefit of moving Quentin -- whose market value has dropped precipitously in the past three seasons because of the injuries that limited him to just 348 games in the 2009-2011 seasons -- is to shave payroll.
For San Diego, Quentin could be a short-term experiment. It's possible that the Padres could negotiate a very team-friendly two- or three-year deal with the slugger in the next six weeks, as it goes through the arbitration process, but it's hard to imagine San Diego would invest heavily in Quentin until it gauges how long he can stay on the field and how his power translates to Petco Park.
It's now
make-or-break time for Chicago's
Dayan Viciedo, writes Phil Rogers. Ken Williams envisions both prospects he got
pitching in the big leagues this year.
• The
Chicago Cubs are talking with a number of teams about Garza, but no deal is imminent as of now. The Tigers and
Miami Marlins are among those; Detroit has indicated a willingness to trade top prospect
Jacob Turner for the right pitcher, and Miami's most marketable player may be
Logan Morrison. A lot of scouts are not wild about the quality and depth of the Marlins' farm system, but as always, the only opinion that really matters is that of the seller -- if they see something they like, they can find a match.
• You can understand the frustration of
Oakland Athletics fans, who have seen their team's roster turn over time and again, most recently with the trades of
Trevor Cahill,
Gio Gonzalez and
Andrew Bailey. But those who criticize owner Lew Wolff are assuming that he is willfully ignoring an obvious solution in Oakland or maintaining that he should personally absorb the loss of tens of millions of dollars annually on behalf of the franchise.
Question No. 1: What is the great ballpark solution in Oakland, where attendance has been abysmal during the past
two decades, even in those years when the team ranked among the best in the majors?
Question No. 2: Other than the Tigers' Mike Ilitch, what owner in professional sports willfully operates his franchise at a loss?
Sports owners are not obligated to be willing to lose money, any more than fans are obligated to attend the games.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Without Fielder, the
Seattle Mariners are
really not that interesting, writes Steve Kelley. It may be that Fielder's best financial offer could come from the Mariners, but it's an open question whether Fielder is interested in playing in Seattle; some of his friends in the game say they can't see it.
2. The
Toronto Blue Jays added Aaron Laffey.
3.
Edwin Jackson would be a really nice fit for the
Colorado Rockies as an innings-eater, but as of today, there is no room within the Rockies' budget for him.
4. For the Phillies,
talent is more important than age, writes Bob Brookover.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• There is awful news about Kathy Porter, the wife of Atlanta Braves trainer Jeff Porter; she was
killed in a tragic accident. The Braves
released a statement. Here is
more on Jeff.
• The Diamondbacks are
poised to win the allegiance of fans in the valley, writes Dan Bickley. Within the column, Kirk Gibson addresses Ryan Braun's positive test, which reportedly took place in the midst of the Arizona-Milwaukee series:
- Today, there's renewed controversy surrounding the end of the 2011 season. Brewers star Ryan Braun destroyed the Diamondbacks in Games 1 and 2, during a series where he allegedly tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs.
- That can't sit well with an old-school guy like Gibson.
- "It is what it is, OK?" Gibson said about Braun. "We lost. We had our opportunities regardless of all that. I don't make alibis. We had our chances. We just didn't close it out. My job is to be part of the team, help us stay together and try to win the World Series. We did that under the rules."
- Can you say the same thing about the Brewers? That's a question and a regret many Diamondbacks fans currently harbor.
- "Put it this way: I understand your question," Gibson said.
- And that's all he would say, which is part of his charm.
Look, I don't know the specifics of Braun's case, or what his precise defense will be during the appeal process. But generally speaking, it would be enormously difficult for Major League Baseball and the Players Association to allow a player to come in with a doctor's note
after a positive test, because of the precedent it would establish.
Players are required under the current testing system to get approval for any substance or medication
before taking it. Some players say that when they are given any kind of prescription, internal alarm bells sound.
"My first call is to the union," said one National Leaguer last month. "I'm not putting anything into my body before I call the PA."
If the Players Association and MLB structured a system in which players could get medical waivers
after a positive test, they would create the biggest testing loophole in professional sports. Because any millionaire with a Victor Conte and a personal physician willing to act on his behalf could justify any positive test after the fact.
This is why, under current rules, players are essentially regarded as guilty until proven innocent -- not the other way around -- after a positive test.