GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- Apr 5, 2005
- 6,621
- 2,173
2 yrs, $14 mil for Coco? We couldn't even attempt to offer a similar deal to Willingham? I don't get it.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
- Jan 3, 2011
- 10,371
- 653
- Jan 3, 2011
- 10,371
- 653
- Jan 4, 2012
- 175
- 10
Zambrano to Marlins?
- Jan 4, 2012
- 175
- 10
Zambrano to Marlins?
- Jun 10, 2004
- 6,996
- 127
Zambrano and Ozzie
- Jun 10, 2004
- 6,996
- 127
Zambrano and Ozzie
Well, damn.
Kind of sad to actually see him gone, he was our last link to being good. I had high hopes for him long ago, but it's time.
I don't know Volstad, but he's 5 years younger, and shouldn't punch anybody out. But losing Z means we just lost our best hitter after Starlin.
This is going to be one young @#$ squad next year. Theo, I hope you know what you're doin.
Soriano, you know damn well you are next. Theo will find someone to take him off our hands, and we'll pay a ton of money for him to hit elsewhere.
Kind of sad to actually see him gone, he was our last link to being good. I had high hopes for him long ago, but it's time.
I don't know Volstad, but he's 5 years younger, and shouldn't punch anybody out. But losing Z means we just lost our best hitter after Starlin.
This is going to be one young @#$ squad next year. Theo, I hope you know what you're doin.
Soriano, you know damn well you are next. Theo will find someone to take him off our hands, and we'll pay a ton of money for him to hit elsewhere.
Well, damn.
Kind of sad to actually see him gone, he was our last link to being good. I had high hopes for him long ago, but it's time.
I don't know Volstad, but he's 5 years younger, and shouldn't punch anybody out. But losing Z means we just lost our best hitter after Starlin.
This is going to be one young @#$ squad next year. Theo, I hope you know what you're doin.
Soriano, you know damn well you are next. Theo will find someone to take him off our hands, and we'll pay a ton of money for him to hit elsewhere.
Kind of sad to actually see him gone, he was our last link to being good. I had high hopes for him long ago, but it's time.
I don't know Volstad, but he's 5 years younger, and shouldn't punch anybody out. But losing Z means we just lost our best hitter after Starlin.
This is going to be one young @#$ squad next year. Theo, I hope you know what you're doin.
Soriano, you know damn well you are next. Theo will find someone to take him off our hands, and we'll pay a ton of money for him to hit elsewhere.
Hit what? Dude cannot do anything right anymore. His legs barely allow him to play LF as well. Be glad you'll get out of his contract
Theo is not going to field a completely non-competitive team. It's totally up to your fanbase, need to come to the realization that you'll be somewhat competitive but you're not going to win much the first two seasons. Next step is to cash in on Garza's high value.
Hit what? Dude cannot do anything right anymore. His legs barely allow him to play LF as well. Be glad you'll get out of his contract
Theo is not going to field a completely non-competitive team. It's totally up to your fanbase, need to come to the realization that you'll be somewhat competitive but you're not going to win much the first two seasons. Next step is to cash in on Garza's high value.
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,131
- 9,289
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,131
- 9,289
Rumors.
http://[h3]Money no object for Nats with Fielder[/h3]
10:10AM ET
[h5]Washington Nationals [/h5]
The most prominent team in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, at least for the last day or two, is the Washington Nationals. If there is significant mutual interest, money will not be an object, writes Ken Rosenthal.
Rosenthal notes that Lerner is among the game's wealthiest owners, according to Forbes, and adds that the Nats' local TV revenue is about to increase dramatically. That revenue, reported to be $29 million a year, soon will "double, triple or more," a major-league source tells Rosenthal.
As we mentioned earlier this week, the Nats may not want to hand out more than $20 million a year to Fielder when Ryan Zimmerman's contract needs taken care of sooner than later, and he will command a rather large amount of money, too. But Zimmerman had his best years when he had a prominent hitter in Adam Dunn hitting behind him.
Lerner appears to have the resources to land Fielder, even after committing $126 million to Jayson Werth last winter. It could come down to whether he is willing to pull the trigger.
In Thursday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney discusses the pros and cons of Fielder heading to DC. One drawback for the Nats is the cost down the road:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Fielder in DC?
http://[h3]Hairston back to Queens?[/h3]
10:00AM ET
[h5]Scott Hairston | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets appear to be on the verge of re-signing veteran outfielder Scott Hairston, who hit just .235 in a limited role last season.
Joel Sherman tweets Thursday morning that Hairston flew to New York on Tuesday for a physical and it looks like the 31-year-old will be back in Queens.
Financial concerns likely prevented the Mets from pursuing an upgrade over Hairston, who hit just .195 with six RBI in 48 at-bats as a pinch hitter in 2011.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Setback for Trumbo[/h3]
9:41AM ET
[h5]Mark Trumbo | Angels [/h5]
The megadeal for Albert Pujols means the Los Angeles Angels need to find a new position, if not a new team, for Mark Trumbo, who hit 29 homers and drove in 87 runs as the Halos' primary first baseman in 2011.
Trumbo's role for 2012 is more uncertain with word from Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times that a stress fracture in Trumbo's right foot will take about five months to heal, a timetable that will push his rehabilitation to the start of spring training in late February.
Trumbo says he is several weeks from resuming baseball activities. DiGiovanna says the setback could delay a potential move to third base, where Alberto Callaspo is now atop the depth chart.
With Kendrys Morales also on the roster, Trumbo's name has popped up as trade bait, but any deal may now have to wait until Trumbo comes to camp and proves he is healthy. The Angels may be looking to add a reliever, and this could eliminate a bargaining chip.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]-backs not looking to deal Parra[/h3]
9:21AM ET
[h5]Gerardo Parra | Diamondbacks [/h5]
Arizona general manager Kevin Towers does not appear motivated to trade Gerardo Parra simply because the D-backs have a relative surplus of outfielders.
The surprising signing of http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6102/jason-kubelJason Kubel last month appeared to make Parra expendable, but Towers tells Nick Piecoro there are still plenty of at-bats left for the 24-year-old who hit .292 last season.
Towers seens Parra seeing more time in center field and right field as a way of resting starters http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6073/chris-youngChris Young and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28841/justin-uptonJustin Upton. Kubel will get the lion's share of the time in left field.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Aoki to work out for Brewers[/h3]
9:01AM ET
[h5]Ryan Braun | Brewers [/h5]
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28721/ryan-braunRyan Braun's appeal of a positive drug test and pending 50-game suspension will be heard later this month, and the timing could have an impact on the Milwaukee Brewers' pursuit of Norichika Aoki.
The Brewers have until January 17 to reach a deal with Aoki after winning negotiating rights to the Japanese outfielder last month. If the suspension is upheld, the Brewers would have more playing time to offer Aoki, a three-time batting champion in Japan. The Brewers already have in place a center field platoon of Nyjer Morgan and Carlos Gomez.
Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel reports the Brewers will work Aoki this weekend in Phoenix to determine whether they will pursue signing him. The workout will be closed to the media and fans.
Earlier this week, Haudricourt talked to an official familiar with the appeals process who was not overly optimistic about Braun's chances of winning.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Who replaces Torre at MLB?[/h3]
8:11AM ET
[h5]Joe Torre [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Joe Torre stepped down as MLB's executive VP of baseball operations Wednesday to join a prospective ownership group that will be among those competing to buy the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Early speculation on a Torre successor has centered on Tony La Russa, who recently retired from the Cardinals after winning the World Series, and Andy MacPhail, who recently resigned as head of baseball operations for the Orioles. A report in the New York Daily News says Bud Selig wants another high-profile name to replace Torre, who was hired after Sandy Alderson left to become GM of the New York Mets.
Both La Russa and MacPhail would qualify on that front, but that might eliminate former Dodgers assistant GM Kim Ng, who was hired as a Senior VP by Torre.
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun predicts MacPhail will get back in the game at some point, but not right now.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]No deal for Nakajima?[/h3]
7:42AM ET
[h5]Hiroyuki Nakajima [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The Yankees may have a few more days to sign Hiroyuki Nakajima than originally thought, but there are no signs that a deal is imminent, and Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger tweeted Tuesday that it appears a deal is unlikely.
Nakajima wants to play on West Coast and wants money that reflects a role as an everyday player. Since there's no chance he plays every day for the Yankees, the math just doesn't add up to a contract agreement.
The Yankees won the bid for Nakajima last month with a bid of about $2 million.
While the talks are continuing, there are concerns whether Nakajima is a fit in New York, writes Andy Martino in Tuesday's New York Daily News.
If Nakajima signs, he would alter the team's bench, making it less likely the Yankees would re-sign Eric Chavez.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Dan Szymborski[/h5]
Nakajima's value
http://[h3]No multi-year deal for Napoli[/h3]
7:11AM ET
[h5]Mike Napoli | Rangers [/h5]
Mike Napoli was the Texas Rangers' best hitter last season and perhaps the best hitter in baseball from July through the end of the season. That said, it doesn't appear that the catcher is going to get a multi-year pact this offseason, reports T.R. Sullivan.
Napoli made $5.8 million in 2011 and figures o get a substantial raise, perhaps more than $8 million. "We love Mike and we're not closing the door on anything but right now we are focused on a one-year deal," GM Jon Daniels said.
Napoli will be a free agent after next season without a long-term extension so it appears he'll hit the open market next winter where he's likely to be among the more coveted hitters.
- Jason A. Churchill
Remaining needs for all teams.
Washington's end game for Fielder.
MLB's invisible salary floor line.
Top 10 MLB storylines for 2012.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Reds have upper hand with Cordero[/h3]
11:04AM ET
[h5]Francisco Cordero | Reds [/h5]
Francisco Cordero waited too long before signing a deal, and that has given the Cincinnati Reds the upper hand in negotiations to bring back their closer, says John Fay of the Enquirer.
Fay says Cordero, who at one point reportedly turned down a two-year, $14 million offer, may have to "swallow his pride" and accept a one-year deal for less than what he would have gotten per year under the two-year deal.
Cordero and Ryan Madson are the two viable closers still left on the market. The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers may be interested in adding another late-inning arm, but the Rangers appear out on the pricey versions, which would eliminate Cordero and Madson.
The Twins also could look for a closer upgrade, but may be willing to settle on Matt Capps, who blew nine save chances last season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Crisp almost landed in Tampa[/h3]
10:45AM ET
[h5]Coco Crisp | Athletics [/h5]
Coco Crisp almost signed with the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend before deciding to remain in Oakland once the A's stepped up their offer, reports Susan Slusser of the %u201D<a href=/www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/05/SPUM1ML01V.DTL%u201D">http://www.sfgate.com/cgi.../05/SPUM1ML01V.DTL%u201D" target=new>San Francisco Chronicle.
The veteran outfielder tells Slusser he was intrigued with the possibility of playing for Rays manager Joe Maddon in a competitive division, but a more lucrative contract from Oakland and the chance to be closer to his family on the West Coast won out. Crisp agreed to a two-year, $14 million deal, which includes a $7.5 million team option for 2014.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Murphy a fit in Tampa?[/h3]
10:33AM ET
[h5]Daniel Murphy | Mets [/h5]
We mentioned earlier this week there are plenty of free agent first basemen left on the market who are simply waiting for Prince Fielder to make up his mind before making a move of their own. That list includes Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney says the Tampa Bay Rays are among the teams looking for a first baseman and a DH.
Olney suggests one option among many is the Mets' Daniel Murphy, which seems to be a logical fit given the Mets' quest for young solid pitching. Murphy may not hit for power, but can but the ball in play, a trait that would be attractive to a Rays team that values on-base percentage.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Impact of Big Z to Miami[/h3]
10:15AM ET
[h5]Carlos Zambrano | Cubs [/h5]
The moment Ozzie Guillen was hired by the Marlins, the speculation began that he might like to take a crack at solving Carlos Zambrano.
Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reported Wednesday evening that the deal is done and will send right-hander Chris Volstad to the Cubs.
Zambrano is due $18 million guaranteed over the next two seasons -- nearly $40 million if his option vests, though that appears highly unlikely -- and Levine adds that the Cubs will cover $15 million of that total.
If the Cubs also deal http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28528/matt-garzaMatt Garza, their starting rotation would consist of http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3845/ryan-dempsterRyan Dempster, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28943/randy-wellsRandy Wells and Volstad. Candidates for the final two spots include http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30515/travis-woodTravis Wood, Casey Coleman and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30134/andrew-cashnerAndrew Cashner. A Garza deal is likely to bring some pitching back, as the Cubs have indicated that is their preferred return package.
Dave van Dyck writes in Thursday's Chicago Tribune that Cubs president Theo Epstein did not want to chance another meltdown by the volatile Zambrano.
Zambrano likely represents the final starting pitching addition of the offseason for the Marlins, who could insert Zambrano into the No. 4 or 5 spot and hope he returns to form.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Deal makes sense for Fish
11:04AM ET
[h5]Francisco Cordero | Reds [/h5]
Francisco Cordero waited too long before signing a deal, and that has given the Cincinnati Reds the upper hand in negotiations to bring back their closer, says John Fay of the Enquirer.
Fay says Cordero, who at one point reportedly turned down a two-year, $14 million offer, may have to "swallow his pride" and accept a one-year deal for less than what he would have gotten per year under the two-year deal.
Cordero and Ryan Madson are the two viable closers still left on the market. The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers may be interested in adding another late-inning arm, but the Rangers appear out on the pricey versions, which would eliminate Cordero and Madson.
The Twins also could look for a closer upgrade, but may be willing to settle on Matt Capps, who blew nine save chances last season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Crisp almost landed in Tampa[/h3]
10:45AM ET
[h5]Coco Crisp | Athletics [/h5]
Coco Crisp almost signed with the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend before deciding to remain in Oakland once the A's stepped up their offer, reports Susan Slusser of the %u201D<a href=/www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/05/SPUM1ML01V.DTL%u201D">http://www.sfgate.com/cgi.../05/SPUM1ML01V.DTL%u201D" target=new>San Francisco Chronicle.
The veteran outfielder tells Slusser he was intrigued with the possibility of playing for Rays manager Joe Maddon in a competitive division, but a more lucrative contract from Oakland and the chance to be closer to his family on the West Coast won out. Crisp agreed to a two-year, $14 million deal, which includes a $7.5 million team option for 2014.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Murphy a fit in Tampa?[/h3]
10:33AM ET
[h5]Daniel Murphy | Mets [/h5]
We mentioned earlier this week there are plenty of free agent first basemen left on the market who are simply waiting for Prince Fielder to make up his mind before making a move of their own. That list includes Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney says the Tampa Bay Rays are among the teams looking for a first baseman and a DH.
Olney suggests one option among many is the Mets' Daniel Murphy, which seems to be a logical fit given the Mets' quest for young solid pitching. Murphy may not hit for power, but can but the ball in play, a trait that would be attractive to a Rays team that values on-base percentage.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Impact of Big Z to Miami[/h3]
10:15AM ET
[h5]Carlos Zambrano | Cubs [/h5]
The moment Ozzie Guillen was hired by the Marlins, the speculation began that he might like to take a crack at solving Carlos Zambrano.
Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reported Wednesday evening that the deal is done and will send right-hander Chris Volstad to the Cubs.
Zambrano is due $18 million guaranteed over the next two seasons -- nearly $40 million if his option vests, though that appears highly unlikely -- and Levine adds that the Cubs will cover $15 million of that total.
If the Cubs also deal http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28528/matt-garzaMatt Garza, their starting rotation would consist of http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3845/ryan-dempsterRyan Dempster, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28943/randy-wellsRandy Wells and Volstad. Candidates for the final two spots include http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30515/travis-woodTravis Wood, Casey Coleman and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30134/andrew-cashnerAndrew Cashner. A Garza deal is likely to bring some pitching back, as the Cubs have indicated that is their preferred return package.
Dave van Dyck writes in Thursday's Chicago Tribune that Cubs president Theo Epstein did not want to chance another meltdown by the volatile Zambrano.
Zambrano likely represents the final starting pitching addition of the offseason for the Marlins, who could insert Zambrano into the No. 4 or 5 spot and hope he returns to form.
- Jason A. Churchill
Deal makes sense for Fish
10:10AM ET
[h5]Washington Nationals [/h5]
The most prominent team in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, at least for the last day or two, is the Washington Nationals. If there is significant mutual interest, money will not be an object, writes Ken Rosenthal.
Rosenthal notes that Lerner is among the game's wealthiest owners, according to Forbes, and adds that the Nats' local TV revenue is about to increase dramatically. That revenue, reported to be $29 million a year, soon will "double, triple or more," a major-league source tells Rosenthal.
As we mentioned earlier this week, the Nats may not want to hand out more than $20 million a year to Fielder when Ryan Zimmerman's contract needs taken care of sooner than later, and he will command a rather large amount of money, too. But Zimmerman had his best years when he had a prominent hitter in Adam Dunn hitting behind him.
Lerner appears to have the resources to land Fielder, even after committing $126 million to Jayson Werth last winter. It could come down to whether he is willing to pull the trigger.
In Thursday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney discusses the pros and cons of Fielder heading to DC. One drawback for the Nats is the cost down the road:
- Doug Mittler
Fielder in DC?
http://[h3]Hairston back to Queens?[/h3]
10:00AM ET
[h5]Scott Hairston | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets appear to be on the verge of re-signing veteran outfielder Scott Hairston, who hit just .235 in a limited role last season.
Joel Sherman tweets Thursday morning that Hairston flew to New York on Tuesday for a physical and it looks like the 31-year-old will be back in Queens.
Financial concerns likely prevented the Mets from pursuing an upgrade over Hairston, who hit just .195 with six RBI in 48 at-bats as a pinch hitter in 2011.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Setback for Trumbo[/h3]
9:41AM ET
[h5]Mark Trumbo | Angels [/h5]
The megadeal for Albert Pujols means the Los Angeles Angels need to find a new position, if not a new team, for Mark Trumbo, who hit 29 homers and drove in 87 runs as the Halos' primary first baseman in 2011.
Trumbo's role for 2012 is more uncertain with word from Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times that a stress fracture in Trumbo's right foot will take about five months to heal, a timetable that will push his rehabilitation to the start of spring training in late February.
Trumbo says he is several weeks from resuming baseball activities. DiGiovanna says the setback could delay a potential move to third base, where Alberto Callaspo is now atop the depth chart.
With Kendrys Morales also on the roster, Trumbo's name has popped up as trade bait, but any deal may now have to wait until Trumbo comes to camp and proves he is healthy. The Angels may be looking to add a reliever, and this could eliminate a bargaining chip.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]-backs not looking to deal Parra[/h3]
9:21AM ET
[h5]Gerardo Parra | Diamondbacks [/h5]
Arizona general manager Kevin Towers does not appear motivated to trade Gerardo Parra simply because the D-backs have a relative surplus of outfielders.
The surprising signing of http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6102/jason-kubelJason Kubel last month appeared to make Parra expendable, but Towers tells Nick Piecoro there are still plenty of at-bats left for the 24-year-old who hit .292 last season.
Towers seens Parra seeing more time in center field and right field as a way of resting starters http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6073/chris-youngChris Young and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28841/justin-uptonJustin Upton. Kubel will get the lion's share of the time in left field.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Aoki to work out for Brewers[/h3]
9:01AM ET
[h5]Ryan Braun | Brewers [/h5]
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28721/ryan-braunRyan Braun's appeal of a positive drug test and pending 50-game suspension will be heard later this month, and the timing could have an impact on the Milwaukee Brewers' pursuit of Norichika Aoki.
The Brewers have until January 17 to reach a deal with Aoki after winning negotiating rights to the Japanese outfielder last month. If the suspension is upheld, the Brewers would have more playing time to offer Aoki, a three-time batting champion in Japan. The Brewers already have in place a center field platoon of Nyjer Morgan and Carlos Gomez.
Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel reports the Brewers will work Aoki this weekend in Phoenix to determine whether they will pursue signing him. The workout will be closed to the media and fans.
Earlier this week, Haudricourt talked to an official familiar with the appeals process who was not overly optimistic about Braun's chances of winning.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Who replaces Torre at MLB?[/h3]
8:11AM ET
[h5]Joe Torre [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Joe Torre stepped down as MLB's executive VP of baseball operations Wednesday to join a prospective ownership group that will be among those competing to buy the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Early speculation on a Torre successor has centered on Tony La Russa, who recently retired from the Cardinals after winning the World Series, and Andy MacPhail, who recently resigned as head of baseball operations for the Orioles. A report in the New York Daily News says Bud Selig wants another high-profile name to replace Torre, who was hired after Sandy Alderson left to become GM of the New York Mets.
Both La Russa and MacPhail would qualify on that front, but that might eliminate former Dodgers assistant GM Kim Ng, who was hired as a Senior VP by Torre.
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun predicts MacPhail will get back in the game at some point, but not right now.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]No deal for Nakajima?[/h3]
7:42AM ET
[h5]Hiroyuki Nakajima [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The Yankees may have a few more days to sign Hiroyuki Nakajima than originally thought, but there are no signs that a deal is imminent, and Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger tweeted Tuesday that it appears a deal is unlikely.
Nakajima wants to play on West Coast and wants money that reflects a role as an everyday player. Since there's no chance he plays every day for the Yankees, the math just doesn't add up to a contract agreement.
The Yankees won the bid for Nakajima last month with a bid of about $2 million.
While the talks are continuing, there are concerns whether Nakajima is a fit in New York, writes Andy Martino in Tuesday's New York Daily News.
If Nakajima signs, he would alter the team's bench, making it less likely the Yankees would re-sign Eric Chavez.
- Doug Mittler
Nakajima's value
http://[h3]No multi-year deal for Napoli[/h3]
7:11AM ET
[h5]Mike Napoli | Rangers [/h5]
Mike Napoli was the Texas Rangers' best hitter last season and perhaps the best hitter in baseball from July through the end of the season. That said, it doesn't appear that the catcher is going to get a multi-year pact this offseason, reports T.R. Sullivan.
Napoli made $5.8 million in 2011 and figures o get a substantial raise, perhaps more than $8 million. "We love Mike and we're not closing the door on anything but right now we are focused on a one-year deal," GM Jon Daniels said.
Napoli will be a free agent after next season without a long-term extension so it appears he'll hit the open market next winter where he's likely to be among the more coveted hitters.
- Jason A. Churchill
Remaining needs for all teams.
Spoiler [+]
Baseball's winter meetings are now a month gone and most of the remaining big free agents have signed. But with more than 100 major league free agents remaining (and even more minor league free agents), the Hot Stove season has a lot of action remaining.
With only a handful of true stars available for teams this winter on the market, most teams still have a lot of work ahead of them -- not everybody can sign Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson and call it a winter.
So which teams have the most things on their to-do list? Every team will do at least something in the seven weeks until spring training starts, but some clearly have a ways to go in preparing for the 2012 season. Here's a rundown of what all 30 teams could still use before pitchers and catchers report, ranked by teams that figure to be most active to least:
[h3]1. Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nationals have shown a willingness to spend big money this offseason and have been in the conversation for every star free agent, but they were unable to land any of them. Prince Fielder is still out there, and Washington is the likely favorite for him with Michael Morse shifting back to the outfield.
Gio Gonzalez may not be a true ace, but he fills a big hole in the rotation. If the Nats can add Fielder, then they become a serious wild-card contender along with the other upstart in the division, the Miami Marlins. Any big moves remaining will likely have to be done with cash, as Bryce Harper remains untouchable and Washington unloaded half of its top prospects to bring in Gonzalez.
[h3]2. Boston Red Sox[/h3]
The waiting may be the hardest part, but the Red Sox came out very well at closer, getting Andrew Bailey for Josh Reddick -- who is more likely to be a fourth outfielder down the road than a starter -- and two lesser prospects. The team still needs to consider options in right field -- Ryan Sweeney is a nice throw-in, but he's a versatile role player rather than a starter in a corner spot.
Boston could use another starter but is unlikely to go after Edwin Jackson. The Red Sox should try to get Roy Oswalt on a short-term deal with performance incentives.
[h3]3. New York Yankees[/h3]
Keeping CC Sabathia was the team's biggest offseason priority. The Yankees closed the deal quickly and have been pretty quiet since, giving out only $4 million in free agent contracts thus far, or about 1/80th of the Angels' payout. The Yankees should also be in on Oswalt and still have a few more days to negotiate with Seibu Lions shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Nakajima's more interesting down the road (if signed), as he becomes at least a short-term option as a Derek Jeter successor, especially considering Eduardo Nunez's inconsistent defense last year.
[h3]4. Atlanta Braves[/h3]
The Braves have done practically nothing this offseason, their biggest moves being the signing of minor league free agents Adam Russell, Josh Wilson and Drew Sutton. That's likely to change, with Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens remaining on the trade block. Given the depth of their system and the packages fetched for Mat Latos and Gonzalez, the Braves are in a good position to get value for Jurrjens.
I don't expect them to trade Tim Hudson, but dealing him later this winter could fetch quite a bit and bring in some much-needed depth.
[h3]5. Chicago Cubs[/h3]
Theo Epstein's running the show in Chicago, but he hasn't given much indication to what direction the Cubs will be going the next few years. While the trade of Matt Garza is likely and they haven't replaced Aramis Ramirez at third, the Cubs have given enough hints of interest in Prince Fielder to make their motivation unclear. The Braves aren't the only team salivating at the haul that Latos and Gonzalez fetched, and it's hard to seriously push for 2012 with a mediocre roster and the possibility of getting that much back for Garza.
David DeJesus is a terrific value signing for any team. I expect Chicago to continue a moderate rebuild, as opposed to the more extreme Oakland-type rebuilding job.
[h3]6. Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
The Blue Jays are in that awkward place in which they have too much talent to simply rip the team apart and not enough to seriously challenge the Big Three in the AL East. The team did go after Yu Darvish but fell short in the auction for his negotiation rights, so Toronto will almost certainly increase its efforts to bring in Fielder.
It would also be helpful if the Jays made some decisions on what to do with their less stellar 1B/DH/LF types, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind and Travis Snider.
[h3]7. San Diego Padres[/h3]
It would be very surprising if the Padres were finished following the Carlos Quentin trade, given that the team now has Quentin, Yonder Alonso, Jesus Guzman, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Blanks and Will Venable for three starting jobs. The team's set with a preliminary rotation of some combination of Edinson Volquez, Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Dustin Moseley and Cory Luebke, but those arms are more precarious than their ERAs suggest.
They are all helped by Petco Park, and thanks to the continued decline in league offense, a league-average ERA in Petco in 2011 was down to 3.54. But some teams are inevitably going to lose out on Fielder and even Carlos Pena, and the Padres need to have a Plan B.
[h3]8. Texas Rangers[/h3]
The Angels' moves necessitated the team doing something, and something they did, winning the bidding for the exclusive rights to negotiate with the best prospect ever from Japan in Darvish.
Fielder's definitely on the back burner now -- unless negotiations with Darvish turn sour -- but it doesn't mean the Rangers should stop looking at an upgrade at first, with Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman still out there.
[h3]9. Miami Marlins[/h3]
Even with the additions of Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes, the Fish may not be done yet, competing with the Detroit Tigers to land Matt Garza from the Cubs.
Miami has been scouting Vicente Padilla to compete for a job, and one of its biggest moves may not even be an acquisition, but getting Hanley Ramirez to be at peace with his much-needed move to third base.
[h3]10. Colorado Rockies[/h3]
The Rockies haven't been connected with any of the big-name free agents (I didn't forget Michael Cuddyer) but are likely to move Seth Smith -- who was made obsolete with the signing of Cuddyer -- and have been connected with several of the remaining trade possibilities.
Colorado's still targeting Martin Prado for a supersub role and is in the running to bring in Garza. While a blockbuster is unlikely, the team does have some flexibility and could move anyone not named Troy or Carlos for the right deal, as shown by the speed in which they cashed in Ubaldo Jimenez last season for prospects.
[h3]11. Baltimore Orioles[/h3]
After last year's ill-fated attempt to hot-shot a .500 season, the Orioles have been very quiet this season and will likely remain so. Joe Saunders remains a possibility for the team given that the O's have a sore need for an innings-eater. And while the Orioles put their toe into the Fielder waters, that's extremely unlikely.
The O's are more likely to sign Japanese pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma and need to either come to terms with Adam Jones on a long-term contract or start exploring a trade.
[h3]12. Detroit Tigers[/h3]
The Tigers remain in win-now mode and are right to be willing to part with Jacob Turner if they can bring in Garza -- Turner's not quite ready to be a solid major league starter, and the Tigers aren't a young team.
Garza's the main target, but if the Cubs hang on to him or trade him elsewhere, Edwin Jackson is the most promising name left and Detroit already knows him.
[h3]13. Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
While I'm not a fan of bringing in Aramis Ramirez when the Brewers have Taylor Green and Mat Gamel at the corners and nothing comparable at short, he's still a solid bat, though not remotely to the level of the departed Fielder.
Milwaukee won the rights to sign Norichika Aoki, but he's not a must-sign the way Darvish was. The team still could use another outfielder, given that it seems very likely that Ryan Braun will lose his appeal and miss 50 games.
[h3]14. Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The Rays will likely spend the rest of the winter making a few low-key moves, with Pena the best replacement for Kotchman left in the market. Tampa Bay didn't pull the trigger on any trades during the winter meetings, but it's still likely as the Rays have a surplus of talent. With San Diego accumulating first basemen for some reason, it may be a good opportunity to snag Anthony Rizzo in a buy-low opportunity that would be consistent with the team's moves in the past.
They should probably at least call the Giants about Brandon Belt, given that team's baffling fascination with Brett Pill, though that's a long shot.
[h3]15. Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
As exciting as it was for Pirates fans for their team to be relevant for a brief period in midseason last year, the Pirates aren't finished rebuilding and the front office seems to realize that rather than make a premature push.
Pittsburgh made a great value signing in Erik Bedard and will probably sign a few more players to similar deals. The Pirates really need to get moving and get Andrew McCutchen signed to a long-term contract.
[h3]16. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
Arizona may overpay for utility players, but the core of the surprising 2011 squad returns in 2012, with Saunders replaced with the far more intriguing Trevor Cahill. While I think Arizona made a mistake in signing Jason Kubel -- considering Gerardo Parra's stellar defensive numbers -- it's still poised to be one of the NL West favorites in 2012, along with the Rockies and Giants.
With a repeat performance, the Diamondbacks may be in a position to have a very interesting offseason next year, as only Miguel Montero is unsigned for 2013 (Stephen Drew and Chris Young have 2013 options). The ZiPS projection system sees Paul Goldschmidt as a league-average player (though not a star), so Arizona doesn't even need to make a move at first unless some huge opportunity arises.
[h3]17. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
In my opinion, no team has had a worse offseason than the Giants. With a team that just missed the playoffs and its weakest positions being almost custom-fit for some of the biggest players available in the market, San Francisco passed on Jose Reyes with barely a raised eyebrow and showed almost no interest in bringing back Carlos Beltran or pursuing Jimmy Rollins. Sure, Melky Cabrera is a better hitter than Aaron Rowand, but he's a defensive liability in center and has nowhere near the potential with the bat that Brandon Belt would have in left.
The Giants also have made little progress on the Matt Cain extension, though I guess they did have time to put in a bid for Willie Bloomquist. With most of the players that would really help the Giants' offense gone, don't expect much of significance to happen in January.
[h3]18. Seattle Mariners[/h3]
Without Fielder, the Mariners are likely to be pretty ugly in 2012. With Fielder, the Mariners are likely to be pretty ugly in 2012. Washington missing out on Wilson and Buehrle may be the best thing for the Mariners, as the Nationals are now going hard after Fielder.
This team doesn't have the talent to compete in the short term, so as large an improvement as Fielder is over the player they were sending out there last year, the Mariners should be looking at younger guys with upside rather than a quick non-fix.
[h3]19. Cleveland Indians[/h3]
Bringing Grady Sizemore back at a contract with upside for Cleveland was a big priority. With that accomplished, the Indians didn't lose any of their key players to free agency. They also signed Jose Lopez to a minor league contract, and while Lopez was horrific the past two years, he's still just 28 and brings little risk to camp.
The Indians will probably make more moves in that vein, but nothing major.
[h3]20. Minnesota Twins[/h3]
The Twins made a good pseudo-swap, bringing in Josh Willingham while letting Cuddyer go, but they have a lot to fix and going after guys like Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick won't be enough to make them relevant.
Jason Marquis can eat innings, but the Twins have too much lousy pitching. Problem is, there's too little good pitching available.
[h3]21. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
Los Angeles had to make a decision on Matt Kemp, and after trade rumors surrounding the should-have-been-MVP, it signed him to an eight-year, $160 million contract. The Dodgers followed that up with a flurry of third-tier signings, enough that they have spent the fourth-most in the free-agent market ($42.9 million).
Only problem is, most of these aforementioned signings (Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Mark Ellis, Adam Kennedy, Juan Rivera) seem geared to making the Dodgers the NL West favorite … for the 2006 season.
[h3]22. Oakland Athletics[/h3]
If you have an offer for anybody, the A's will listen at this point. After trading Cahill, Gonzalez and Bailey so far this winter, it's clear that no player on the roster can't be had in a deal that helps the A's move closer to contention a few seasons from now.
The plan appears to be to go for the full slash-and-burn rebuild and hope their aspirations to land a new ballpark in San Jose are fulfilled.
[h3]23. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies are still looking at Cuban imports Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler. With Jonathan Papelbon signed for $50 million, Rollins back, and Jim Thome and Brian Schneider filling out the roster, they're most likely just making moves on the margins from here on out.
Philadelphia will be without Ryan Howard for most, if not all, of 2012, but acquiring another first baseman at this point in the offseason seems unlikely.
[h3]24. Chicago White Sox[/h3]
While the White Sox gave John Danks the long-term deal he was looking for, they are clearly retooling by trading Quentin, Sergio Santos and Jason Frasor and not resigning their longtime ace in Buehrle.
The Sox are more likely to trade Gavin Floyd at this point than re-sign him and will probably be conservative about any other signings this offseason.
[h3]25. New York Mets[/h3]
With the Mets' ownership so light for cash that they might want to consider busking in the subway to bring in some dough, the Mets will continue to primarily be sellers the rest of the winter.
If they can't keep David Wright long-term, there's little point in keeping him around to hit in the middle of the order for a fifth-place team. With few third base options available, Wright's value is unlikely to increase later.
[h3]26. St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]
They get Adam Wainwright back, essentially an "addition" as good as anything else they could do at this point, The Cardinals made the signings they needed to, getting Beltran for a very reasonable figure and keeping Rafael Furcal.
Outside of finding a medical cure for their partiality to Skip Schumaker, the Cardinals' 2012 roster is mostly completed.
[h3]27. Cincinnati Reds[/h3]
Naturally, a day after I suggest that the Reds mainly stand pat this winter, they turn around and pull off a big swap for Padres hurler Mat Latos. They've offered only one year to Francisco Cordero and turned down any suggestion of Ryan Madson, so it seems unlikely the Reds will be big players in January.
They have a point -- the Cardinals lost Pujols, the Brewers (unofficially) lost Fielder, and the Reds still retain their MVP candidate in Joey Votto.
[h3]28. Kansas City Royals[/h3]
The rebuilding continues. Kansas City will continue to bring in dollar-store bargains, especially pitchers, and probably won't land anyone bigger than, say, Paul Maholm. Hiroki Kuroda is still out there and would probably be a shorter-term commitment than Edwin Jackson.
Problem is, Kuroda reportedly wants to stay on the West Coast if at all possible, and despite the Pacific Coast League featuring teams in Omaha and Iowa, the beach is a long drive from Kansas City.
[h3]29. Houston Astros[/h3]
Now comes the non-fun part of a big rebuild, when you've already traded everyone of value. Wandy Rodriguez has value, but it's hard to expect too much in return while teams still chase Garza.
Otherwise, this appears to be a quiet winter for Houston without many players worth trading.
[h3]30. Los Angeles Angels[/h3]
They got their holiday shopping done early, giving out $334.5 million to free agents this winter. That's more than the next three biggest spenders (Miami, Philadelphia, L.A. Dodgers) combined at $326 million. The AL West should be a whole lot more fun, but the Angels will probably have a quiet January and February.
Outside of stealing a third baseman like Taylor Green from the Brewers, the Angels will give Mark Trumbo every opportunity to try to handle the hot corner.
With only a handful of true stars available for teams this winter on the market, most teams still have a lot of work ahead of them -- not everybody can sign Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson and call it a winter.
So which teams have the most things on their to-do list? Every team will do at least something in the seven weeks until spring training starts, but some clearly have a ways to go in preparing for the 2012 season. Here's a rundown of what all 30 teams could still use before pitchers and catchers report, ranked by teams that figure to be most active to least:
[h3]1. Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nationals have shown a willingness to spend big money this offseason and have been in the conversation for every star free agent, but they were unable to land any of them. Prince Fielder is still out there, and Washington is the likely favorite for him with Michael Morse shifting back to the outfield.
Gio Gonzalez may not be a true ace, but he fills a big hole in the rotation. If the Nats can add Fielder, then they become a serious wild-card contender along with the other upstart in the division, the Miami Marlins. Any big moves remaining will likely have to be done with cash, as Bryce Harper remains untouchable and Washington unloaded half of its top prospects to bring in Gonzalez.
[h3]2. Boston Red Sox[/h3]
The waiting may be the hardest part, but the Red Sox came out very well at closer, getting Andrew Bailey for Josh Reddick -- who is more likely to be a fourth outfielder down the road than a starter -- and two lesser prospects. The team still needs to consider options in right field -- Ryan Sweeney is a nice throw-in, but he's a versatile role player rather than a starter in a corner spot.
Boston could use another starter but is unlikely to go after Edwin Jackson. The Red Sox should try to get Roy Oswalt on a short-term deal with performance incentives.
[h3]3. New York Yankees[/h3]
Keeping CC Sabathia was the team's biggest offseason priority. The Yankees closed the deal quickly and have been pretty quiet since, giving out only $4 million in free agent contracts thus far, or about 1/80th of the Angels' payout. The Yankees should also be in on Oswalt and still have a few more days to negotiate with Seibu Lions shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Nakajima's more interesting down the road (if signed), as he becomes at least a short-term option as a Derek Jeter successor, especially considering Eduardo Nunez's inconsistent defense last year.
[h3]4. Atlanta Braves[/h3]
The Braves have done practically nothing this offseason, their biggest moves being the signing of minor league free agents Adam Russell, Josh Wilson and Drew Sutton. That's likely to change, with Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens remaining on the trade block. Given the depth of their system and the packages fetched for Mat Latos and Gonzalez, the Braves are in a good position to get value for Jurrjens.
I don't expect them to trade Tim Hudson, but dealing him later this winter could fetch quite a bit and bring in some much-needed depth.
[h3]5. Chicago Cubs[/h3]
Theo Epstein's running the show in Chicago, but he hasn't given much indication to what direction the Cubs will be going the next few years. While the trade of Matt Garza is likely and they haven't replaced Aramis Ramirez at third, the Cubs have given enough hints of interest in Prince Fielder to make their motivation unclear. The Braves aren't the only team salivating at the haul that Latos and Gonzalez fetched, and it's hard to seriously push for 2012 with a mediocre roster and the possibility of getting that much back for Garza.
David DeJesus is a terrific value signing for any team. I expect Chicago to continue a moderate rebuild, as opposed to the more extreme Oakland-type rebuilding job.
[h3]6. Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
The Blue Jays are in that awkward place in which they have too much talent to simply rip the team apart and not enough to seriously challenge the Big Three in the AL East. The team did go after Yu Darvish but fell short in the auction for his negotiation rights, so Toronto will almost certainly increase its efforts to bring in Fielder.
It would also be helpful if the Jays made some decisions on what to do with their less stellar 1B/DH/LF types, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind and Travis Snider.
[h3]7. San Diego Padres[/h3]
It would be very surprising if the Padres were finished following the Carlos Quentin trade, given that the team now has Quentin, Yonder Alonso, Jesus Guzman, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Blanks and Will Venable for three starting jobs. The team's set with a preliminary rotation of some combination of Edinson Volquez, Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Dustin Moseley and Cory Luebke, but those arms are more precarious than their ERAs suggest.
They are all helped by Petco Park, and thanks to the continued decline in league offense, a league-average ERA in Petco in 2011 was down to 3.54. But some teams are inevitably going to lose out on Fielder and even Carlos Pena, and the Padres need to have a Plan B.
[h3]8. Texas Rangers[/h3]
The Angels' moves necessitated the team doing something, and something they did, winning the bidding for the exclusive rights to negotiate with the best prospect ever from Japan in Darvish.
Fielder's definitely on the back burner now -- unless negotiations with Darvish turn sour -- but it doesn't mean the Rangers should stop looking at an upgrade at first, with Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman still out there.
[h3]9. Miami Marlins[/h3]
Even with the additions of Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes, the Fish may not be done yet, competing with the Detroit Tigers to land Matt Garza from the Cubs.
Miami has been scouting Vicente Padilla to compete for a job, and one of its biggest moves may not even be an acquisition, but getting Hanley Ramirez to be at peace with his much-needed move to third base.
[h3]10. Colorado Rockies[/h3]
The Rockies haven't been connected with any of the big-name free agents (I didn't forget Michael Cuddyer) but are likely to move Seth Smith -- who was made obsolete with the signing of Cuddyer -- and have been connected with several of the remaining trade possibilities.
Colorado's still targeting Martin Prado for a supersub role and is in the running to bring in Garza. While a blockbuster is unlikely, the team does have some flexibility and could move anyone not named Troy or Carlos for the right deal, as shown by the speed in which they cashed in Ubaldo Jimenez last season for prospects.
[h3]11. Baltimore Orioles[/h3]
After last year's ill-fated attempt to hot-shot a .500 season, the Orioles have been very quiet this season and will likely remain so. Joe Saunders remains a possibility for the team given that the O's have a sore need for an innings-eater. And while the Orioles put their toe into the Fielder waters, that's extremely unlikely.
The O's are more likely to sign Japanese pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma and need to either come to terms with Adam Jones on a long-term contract or start exploring a trade.
[h3]12. Detroit Tigers[/h3]
The Tigers remain in win-now mode and are right to be willing to part with Jacob Turner if they can bring in Garza -- Turner's not quite ready to be a solid major league starter, and the Tigers aren't a young team.
Garza's the main target, but if the Cubs hang on to him or trade him elsewhere, Edwin Jackson is the most promising name left and Detroit already knows him.
[h3]13. Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
While I'm not a fan of bringing in Aramis Ramirez when the Brewers have Taylor Green and Mat Gamel at the corners and nothing comparable at short, he's still a solid bat, though not remotely to the level of the departed Fielder.
Milwaukee won the rights to sign Norichika Aoki, but he's not a must-sign the way Darvish was. The team still could use another outfielder, given that it seems very likely that Ryan Braun will lose his appeal and miss 50 games.
[h3]14. Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The Rays will likely spend the rest of the winter making a few low-key moves, with Pena the best replacement for Kotchman left in the market. Tampa Bay didn't pull the trigger on any trades during the winter meetings, but it's still likely as the Rays have a surplus of talent. With San Diego accumulating first basemen for some reason, it may be a good opportunity to snag Anthony Rizzo in a buy-low opportunity that would be consistent with the team's moves in the past.
They should probably at least call the Giants about Brandon Belt, given that team's baffling fascination with Brett Pill, though that's a long shot.
[h3]15. Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
As exciting as it was for Pirates fans for their team to be relevant for a brief period in midseason last year, the Pirates aren't finished rebuilding and the front office seems to realize that rather than make a premature push.
Pittsburgh made a great value signing in Erik Bedard and will probably sign a few more players to similar deals. The Pirates really need to get moving and get Andrew McCutchen signed to a long-term contract.
[h3]16. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
Arizona may overpay for utility players, but the core of the surprising 2011 squad returns in 2012, with Saunders replaced with the far more intriguing Trevor Cahill. While I think Arizona made a mistake in signing Jason Kubel -- considering Gerardo Parra's stellar defensive numbers -- it's still poised to be one of the NL West favorites in 2012, along with the Rockies and Giants.
With a repeat performance, the Diamondbacks may be in a position to have a very interesting offseason next year, as only Miguel Montero is unsigned for 2013 (Stephen Drew and Chris Young have 2013 options). The ZiPS projection system sees Paul Goldschmidt as a league-average player (though not a star), so Arizona doesn't even need to make a move at first unless some huge opportunity arises.
[h3]17. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
In my opinion, no team has had a worse offseason than the Giants. With a team that just missed the playoffs and its weakest positions being almost custom-fit for some of the biggest players available in the market, San Francisco passed on Jose Reyes with barely a raised eyebrow and showed almost no interest in bringing back Carlos Beltran or pursuing Jimmy Rollins. Sure, Melky Cabrera is a better hitter than Aaron Rowand, but he's a defensive liability in center and has nowhere near the potential with the bat that Brandon Belt would have in left.
The Giants also have made little progress on the Matt Cain extension, though I guess they did have time to put in a bid for Willie Bloomquist. With most of the players that would really help the Giants' offense gone, don't expect much of significance to happen in January.
[h3]18. Seattle Mariners[/h3]
Without Fielder, the Mariners are likely to be pretty ugly in 2012. With Fielder, the Mariners are likely to be pretty ugly in 2012. Washington missing out on Wilson and Buehrle may be the best thing for the Mariners, as the Nationals are now going hard after Fielder.
This team doesn't have the talent to compete in the short term, so as large an improvement as Fielder is over the player they were sending out there last year, the Mariners should be looking at younger guys with upside rather than a quick non-fix.
[h3]19. Cleveland Indians[/h3]
Bringing Grady Sizemore back at a contract with upside for Cleveland was a big priority. With that accomplished, the Indians didn't lose any of their key players to free agency. They also signed Jose Lopez to a minor league contract, and while Lopez was horrific the past two years, he's still just 28 and brings little risk to camp.
The Indians will probably make more moves in that vein, but nothing major.
[h3]20. Minnesota Twins[/h3]
The Twins made a good pseudo-swap, bringing in Josh Willingham while letting Cuddyer go, but they have a lot to fix and going after guys like Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick won't be enough to make them relevant.
Jason Marquis can eat innings, but the Twins have too much lousy pitching. Problem is, there's too little good pitching available.
[h3]21. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
Los Angeles had to make a decision on Matt Kemp, and after trade rumors surrounding the should-have-been-MVP, it signed him to an eight-year, $160 million contract. The Dodgers followed that up with a flurry of third-tier signings, enough that they have spent the fourth-most in the free-agent market ($42.9 million).
Only problem is, most of these aforementioned signings (Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Mark Ellis, Adam Kennedy, Juan Rivera) seem geared to making the Dodgers the NL West favorite … for the 2006 season.
[h3]22. Oakland Athletics[/h3]
If you have an offer for anybody, the A's will listen at this point. After trading Cahill, Gonzalez and Bailey so far this winter, it's clear that no player on the roster can't be had in a deal that helps the A's move closer to contention a few seasons from now.
The plan appears to be to go for the full slash-and-burn rebuild and hope their aspirations to land a new ballpark in San Jose are fulfilled.
[h3]23. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies are still looking at Cuban imports Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler. With Jonathan Papelbon signed for $50 million, Rollins back, and Jim Thome and Brian Schneider filling out the roster, they're most likely just making moves on the margins from here on out.
Philadelphia will be without Ryan Howard for most, if not all, of 2012, but acquiring another first baseman at this point in the offseason seems unlikely.
[h3]24. Chicago White Sox[/h3]
While the White Sox gave John Danks the long-term deal he was looking for, they are clearly retooling by trading Quentin, Sergio Santos and Jason Frasor and not resigning their longtime ace in Buehrle.
The Sox are more likely to trade Gavin Floyd at this point than re-sign him and will probably be conservative about any other signings this offseason.
[h3]25. New York Mets[/h3]
With the Mets' ownership so light for cash that they might want to consider busking in the subway to bring in some dough, the Mets will continue to primarily be sellers the rest of the winter.
If they can't keep David Wright long-term, there's little point in keeping him around to hit in the middle of the order for a fifth-place team. With few third base options available, Wright's value is unlikely to increase later.
[h3]26. St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]
They get Adam Wainwright back, essentially an "addition" as good as anything else they could do at this point, The Cardinals made the signings they needed to, getting Beltran for a very reasonable figure and keeping Rafael Furcal.
Outside of finding a medical cure for their partiality to Skip Schumaker, the Cardinals' 2012 roster is mostly completed.
[h3]27. Cincinnati Reds[/h3]
Naturally, a day after I suggest that the Reds mainly stand pat this winter, they turn around and pull off a big swap for Padres hurler Mat Latos. They've offered only one year to Francisco Cordero and turned down any suggestion of Ryan Madson, so it seems unlikely the Reds will be big players in January.
They have a point -- the Cardinals lost Pujols, the Brewers (unofficially) lost Fielder, and the Reds still retain their MVP candidate in Joey Votto.
[h3]28. Kansas City Royals[/h3]
The rebuilding continues. Kansas City will continue to bring in dollar-store bargains, especially pitchers, and probably won't land anyone bigger than, say, Paul Maholm. Hiroki Kuroda is still out there and would probably be a shorter-term commitment than Edwin Jackson.
Problem is, Kuroda reportedly wants to stay on the West Coast if at all possible, and despite the Pacific Coast League featuring teams in Omaha and Iowa, the beach is a long drive from Kansas City.
[h3]29. Houston Astros[/h3]
Now comes the non-fun part of a big rebuild, when you've already traded everyone of value. Wandy Rodriguez has value, but it's hard to expect too much in return while teams still chase Garza.
Otherwise, this appears to be a quiet winter for Houston without many players worth trading.
[h3]30. Los Angeles Angels[/h3]
They got their holiday shopping done early, giving out $334.5 million to free agents this winter. That's more than the next three biggest spenders (Miami, Philadelphia, L.A. Dodgers) combined at $326 million. The AL West should be a whole lot more fun, but the Angels will probably have a quiet January and February.
Outside of stealing a third baseman like Taylor Green from the Brewers, the Angels will give Mark Trumbo every opportunity to try to handle the hot corner.
Washington's end game for Fielder.
Spoiler [+]
You can imagine Washington Nationals executives sitting around a conference table, weighing all the pros and cons of signing Prince Fielder, all the possible rewards, all the risks.
Put yourself in their place and think about all of these factors.
The pros:
1. Fielder's immediate impact on the lineup could be extraordinary and turn the Nationals into a power right away -- in the standings, and as a box-office draw and a boon to television ratings. During the past six seasons, Fielder has averaged 38 homers and 108 RBIs per year. His on-base percentage climbed to a career-high .415 last season. This is what the Nationals' lineup could look like by Aug. 1:
RF -- Jayson Werth
CF -- Bryce Harper
3B -- Ryan Zimmerman
1B -- Prince Fielder
LF -- Michael Morse
2B -- Danny Espinosa
C -- Wilson Ramos
SS -- Ian Desmond
This might be the best lineup in the National League, and if the Nationals' rotation "Big Three" -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg -- all stay healthy, this team could be good enough to play deep into the postseason.
2. The addition of Fielder would immediately boost the Nationals into a different place in the eyes of future free agents. Remember when Zack Greinke turned down tens of millions of dollars and a possible trade to Washington because he thought the team wasn't good enough? Well, instead, the Nationals would become a team that elite players would want to play for, the way the Philadelphia Phillies have been a preferred landing spot in recent years.
3. Fielder would fit the Nationals' big-picture plan because he's relatively young, and he would be on what is generally a very young team.
4. Quite simply, the addition of Fielder would make the Nationals eminently watchable. To borrow a phrase from Dustin Pedroia, imagine the laser show Washington could provide daily, with Fielder, Harper, etc. All of Major League Baseball's broadcast partners would fight to air their games.
The cons:
1. The cost for Fielder could hang on the Nationals for years. Presumably, the Nationals would have to pay him somewhere in the range of $24 million-$28 million for at least seven years. In 2016 and 2017, the Nationals would be on the hook for about $45 million annually for Fielder in his mid-30s and Werth in his late 30s -- a hell of a lot of money. History tells us that these enormous long-term contracts almost always become a major problem for franchises.
2. Signing Fielder leaves Washington no positional alternative with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, whose ability to make throws has become something of an issue. Some folks in the organization have thought that Zimmerman could eventually shift from third to first, but if Fielder comes on board, that can't happen. Zimmerman is set to make $12 million this year and $14 million next year, before becoming eligible for free agency.
3. Fielder's defense -- already considered subpar by a lot of scouts -- is more likely to regress than improve during the term of his contract. Part of the allure of a Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez is that they are excellent two-way players. This cannot be said of Fielder, and remember, the Nationals allowed Adam Dunn to walk away partly because they thought his defensive deficiencies eventually had a significant impact on the rest of the infield.
4. The Nationals would have to eat the money owed to Adam LaRoche, perhaps as part of a trade with a team like the Tampa Bay Rays, who are looking for a first baseman. This is really not that big a deal; if you are willing to spend $150-plus million on Fielder, the $9 million owed to LaRoche is not going to be an impediment.
For the readers: If you were in Mike Rizzo's shoes, and you faced this crossroads decision, what would you do?
I emailed some rival evaluators and asked them to assess the possible impact of the Nationals signing Fielder. Their responses:
From an AL evaluator: "Prince would be a nice addition for Washington, considering they were in the bottom half of the league in pretty much every significant category offensively last year. Even outlaying $20M+ per year this year wouldn't seem to restrict them too much in terms of their payroll, though 6-7 years down the line that kind of commitment to someone with his physical makeup could end up hurting them, especially if they choose to pay guys like Zimmerman and Strasburg moving forward (and Werth's contract becomes more costly).
"That being said, if these guys perform and the club competes, their revenue will surely spike, so in a sense signing Fielder to a six- or seven-year deal perhaps has more upside for their organization in particular than it would for some other clubs."
From an NL evaluator: "If the Nationals sign Prince Fielder, there is no question they become a better team and an immediate threat in the NL East. Compare them to the class of the division in Philadelphia: an infield of Fielder, Espinosa, Desmond and Zimmerman right now is equal to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco; the oldest player in the Nationals' projected infield is Fielder at age 27 whereas the youngest player in the Phillies' infield is 33. Looking at the outfields -- you have Shane Victorino as a free agent after 2012 and Hunter Pence as a free agent after 2013 while Washington has Werth, for better or worse, locked in for the next six years. Wilson Ramos is eight years younger than Carlos Ruiz and he's already a better player under team control for the next five years.
"The difference, in the short run, is the pitching, but again the age vs. youth is striking. The Phillies' Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are 35 and 34, respectively, while Cole Hamels, 28, is a free agent after 2012 while the Nationals' front three of Strasburg-Zimmermann-Gonzalez are 24-26-26 and John Lannan is 27. Same is true in the bullpen with Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, 25 and 27, respectively, significantly younger and with much more fresh arms than Jonathon Papelbon and Jose Contreras, 31 and 40, respectively.
"The other thing, which isn't mentioned as often, is the expansion of the playoffs to include a second wild card bodes well for the Nationals if they sign Fielder. They are putting together a young and formidable club, and even if they can't beat Philadelphia this year or next, more playoffs spots gives them a chance to go in as a young and hungry team with three very good starting pitchers. If Washington gets Fielder, there will be a price to be paid at some point as there is for all free agents, but they become really good really fast."
From an AL evaluator: "If the Nationals sign Prince it accelerates their time table. Fielder would give the Nats a quartet of mega-star caliber players in Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Zimmerman. Couple those anchors with Wilson Ramos, Espinosa, Werth and an above-average pitching staff, along with a burgeoning farm system to add pieces and depth to trade for needs. They are set up for a long, sustained run of excellence. Adding a Prince accelerates the process after the foundation has been grounded."
From an AL official: "Strasburg's future is more important [to the Nationals] than Prince Fielder. Good impact bat for them, but I can't see same numbers for him now that he's out of Milwaukee and NL Central. It's a different story playing in the NL East. Washington has a chance to be pretty good, but will need depth, and if they sign Fielder -- along with Werth's contract -- they are going to need to have a lot coming out of the organization's farm system. This might make it tough for them to keep guys like Zimmerman down the road."
Rumors are circulating about the Nationals and Fielder, writes Amanda Comak.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• There are doubts within the hierarchy of the Miami Marlins about whether Carlos Zambrano has enough zip to ever be a frontline pitcher again, because his fastball velocity has dropped into the 89-90 mph range. Last year, he had No. 5 starter stuff to go along with the temperament that essentially got him launched out of Chicago.
But for almost no risk -- for $2.5 million, according to Juan Rodriguez -- the Marlins figure that, at the very least, he could be an innings-eater in a year in which he's pitching for his next contract and has every reason to hold it together. Volstad had exhausted his opportunities with the Miami organization, and unless he had a major turnaround for them in 2012, he was going to be a non-tender candidate anyway.
The Marlins now have a rotation of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco and Zambrano, as Clark Spencer writes.
For the Chicago Cubs, their Zambrano ordeal is over, writes Dave van Dyck. This is a win for the Cubs, writes Phil Rogers.
Not to place blame at the feet of anyone in particular, but it is incredible how little the Cubs have gotten in return for the most expensive signings in the history of their franchise -- Zambrano, Milton Bradley, Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano, who have cost the franchise something in the range of $300 million.
• The Cubs have talked with other teams about Matt Garza, and so far, the gap between what Chicago wants and what other teams are offering has been sizable, probably for a couple of reasons:
No. 1: The trade return for players within a couple of years of free agency has been plummeting, and Garza is on target to hit the market in the fall of 2013.
No. 2: Many talent evaluators view Garza as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, rather than a No. 1 or No. 2. It might behoove the Cubs to keep Garza in the hope that he pitches well, so they can better market him in the weeks leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.
• The Atlanta Braves have a similar situation with Jair Jurrjens that the Cubs do with Garza -- so far, the Braves haven't been able to get what they believe is an equal offer for a good young pitcher. Jurrjens is eligible for free agency after the 2014 season, he'll turn 26 later this month, and he had an excellent first half of the 2011 season. But rival evaluators are concerned about his injury history, and opposing teams haven't been offering what the Braves want -- a young outfielder who can help the Atlanta lineup right away.
• The Rays continue to look for a first baseman and a designated hitter at a time when the market has Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman and others. One option among many is the Mets' Daniel Murphy -- and on paper, the Rays and Mets would seem to have a possible fit, because New York is looking for young starting pitching, and Murphy is an excellent hitter who doesn't strike out a lot. Given the nature of the Rays' offense -- which relies on on-base percentage and speed -- Murphy's ability to put the ball in play could be viewed by Tampa Bay as a significant asset.
Coco Crisp turned down an offer from the Rays.
• The Hall of Fame voting has created all kinds of logic challenges for the voters, particularly those who believe that any link to performance-enhancing drugs -- either through admission or documentation or mere suspicion -- should eliminate a candidate.
For them, here's an interesting question: If Ryan Braun is suspended for his positive drug test, will writers never again consider Braun for any award during his playing career? In other words, if he's suspended 50 games this year, then passes all subsequent tests and hits 60 homers in 2015, would they leave him off their MVP ballot because of what transpired in 2011-12?
Because that's essentially what a lot of voters are doing with the Hall of Fame candidates. One link -- even a suspected link -- is enough to earn a lifetime ban in the eyes of those voters.
• Joe Torre resigned from his job with Major League Baseball to be part of a group that includes developer Rick Caruso.
Torre's group doesn't necessarily have an inside edge, so he is leaving his MLB position without knowing if he actually will wind up as part of the Dodgers' hierarchy. The expectation is that the next owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers will be the group that offers the most money -- pure and simple, almost no politics attached -- and you wonder whether the competition could drive this bidding closer to $1.5 billion. These are serious folks involved with serious money, and they wouldn't get into the process without being committed.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Detroit Tigers signed Eric Patterson.
2. The Tigers don't have Jacob Turner on the trading block, writes Lynn Henning. To be clear: It was never written here that Turner was on the trading block -- only that the Tigers were willing to trade him for the right pitcher, and presumably that list would be very small, because Turner is so highly regarded.
3. The St. Louis Cardinals hired a scouting director.
4. Dealing Seth Smith would help the Colorado Rockies pay for pitching, and he has drawn interest from the Oakland Athletics.
5. The Cincinnati Reds and Francisco Cordero seemed destined to work something out.
6. Bobby Jenks just became a giant question mark for the Boston Red Sox.
7. The Pittsburgh Pirates signed Logan Kensing.
8. Not surprisingly, the New York Yankees aren't going to sign a shortstop from Japan; there just wasn't enough playing time in it for him.
9. The Arizona Diamondbacks are not motivated to trade Gerardo Parra, writes Nick Piecoro.
10. Mark Trumbo's injury still hasn't healed, writes Mark DiGiovanna. Not good.
11. The Texas Rangers are focusing on a one-year deal with Mike Napoli, for now, as Evan Grant writes.
12. The Milwaukee Brewers are going to check out an outfielder from Japan this weekend.
13. Fernando Rodney apologized to the Tampa Bay media, 2½ years after the fact.
14. Francisco Liriano is going to pitch in winter ball after all.
Put yourself in their place and think about all of these factors.
The pros:
1. Fielder's immediate impact on the lineup could be extraordinary and turn the Nationals into a power right away -- in the standings, and as a box-office draw and a boon to television ratings. During the past six seasons, Fielder has averaged 38 homers and 108 RBIs per year. His on-base percentage climbed to a career-high .415 last season. This is what the Nationals' lineup could look like by Aug. 1:
RF -- Jayson Werth
CF -- Bryce Harper
3B -- Ryan Zimmerman
1B -- Prince Fielder
LF -- Michael Morse
2B -- Danny Espinosa
C -- Wilson Ramos
SS -- Ian Desmond
This might be the best lineup in the National League, and if the Nationals' rotation "Big Three" -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg -- all stay healthy, this team could be good enough to play deep into the postseason.
2. The addition of Fielder would immediately boost the Nationals into a different place in the eyes of future free agents. Remember when Zack Greinke turned down tens of millions of dollars and a possible trade to Washington because he thought the team wasn't good enough? Well, instead, the Nationals would become a team that elite players would want to play for, the way the Philadelphia Phillies have been a preferred landing spot in recent years.
3. Fielder would fit the Nationals' big-picture plan because he's relatively young, and he would be on what is generally a very young team.
4. Quite simply, the addition of Fielder would make the Nationals eminently watchable. To borrow a phrase from Dustin Pedroia, imagine the laser show Washington could provide daily, with Fielder, Harper, etc. All of Major League Baseball's broadcast partners would fight to air their games.
The cons:
1. The cost for Fielder could hang on the Nationals for years. Presumably, the Nationals would have to pay him somewhere in the range of $24 million-$28 million for at least seven years. In 2016 and 2017, the Nationals would be on the hook for about $45 million annually for Fielder in his mid-30s and Werth in his late 30s -- a hell of a lot of money. History tells us that these enormous long-term contracts almost always become a major problem for franchises.
2. Signing Fielder leaves Washington no positional alternative with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, whose ability to make throws has become something of an issue. Some folks in the organization have thought that Zimmerman could eventually shift from third to first, but if Fielder comes on board, that can't happen. Zimmerman is set to make $12 million this year and $14 million next year, before becoming eligible for free agency.
3. Fielder's defense -- already considered subpar by a lot of scouts -- is more likely to regress than improve during the term of his contract. Part of the allure of a Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez is that they are excellent two-way players. This cannot be said of Fielder, and remember, the Nationals allowed Adam Dunn to walk away partly because they thought his defensive deficiencies eventually had a significant impact on the rest of the infield.
4. The Nationals would have to eat the money owed to Adam LaRoche, perhaps as part of a trade with a team like the Tampa Bay Rays, who are looking for a first baseman. This is really not that big a deal; if you are willing to spend $150-plus million on Fielder, the $9 million owed to LaRoche is not going to be an impediment.
For the readers: If you were in Mike Rizzo's shoes, and you faced this crossroads decision, what would you do?
I emailed some rival evaluators and asked them to assess the possible impact of the Nationals signing Fielder. Their responses:
From an AL evaluator: "Prince would be a nice addition for Washington, considering they were in the bottom half of the league in pretty much every significant category offensively last year. Even outlaying $20M+ per year this year wouldn't seem to restrict them too much in terms of their payroll, though 6-7 years down the line that kind of commitment to someone with his physical makeup could end up hurting them, especially if they choose to pay guys like Zimmerman and Strasburg moving forward (and Werth's contract becomes more costly).
"That being said, if these guys perform and the club competes, their revenue will surely spike, so in a sense signing Fielder to a six- or seven-year deal perhaps has more upside for their organization in particular than it would for some other clubs."
From an NL evaluator: "If the Nationals sign Prince Fielder, there is no question they become a better team and an immediate threat in the NL East. Compare them to the class of the division in Philadelphia: an infield of Fielder, Espinosa, Desmond and Zimmerman right now is equal to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco; the oldest player in the Nationals' projected infield is Fielder at age 27 whereas the youngest player in the Phillies' infield is 33. Looking at the outfields -- you have Shane Victorino as a free agent after 2012 and Hunter Pence as a free agent after 2013 while Washington has Werth, for better or worse, locked in for the next six years. Wilson Ramos is eight years younger than Carlos Ruiz and he's already a better player under team control for the next five years.
"The difference, in the short run, is the pitching, but again the age vs. youth is striking. The Phillies' Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are 35 and 34, respectively, while Cole Hamels, 28, is a free agent after 2012 while the Nationals' front three of Strasburg-Zimmermann-Gonzalez are 24-26-26 and John Lannan is 27. Same is true in the bullpen with Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, 25 and 27, respectively, significantly younger and with much more fresh arms than Jonathon Papelbon and Jose Contreras, 31 and 40, respectively.
"The other thing, which isn't mentioned as often, is the expansion of the playoffs to include a second wild card bodes well for the Nationals if they sign Fielder. They are putting together a young and formidable club, and even if they can't beat Philadelphia this year or next, more playoffs spots gives them a chance to go in as a young and hungry team with three very good starting pitchers. If Washington gets Fielder, there will be a price to be paid at some point as there is for all free agents, but they become really good really fast."
From an AL evaluator: "If the Nationals sign Prince it accelerates their time table. Fielder would give the Nats a quartet of mega-star caliber players in Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Zimmerman. Couple those anchors with Wilson Ramos, Espinosa, Werth and an above-average pitching staff, along with a burgeoning farm system to add pieces and depth to trade for needs. They are set up for a long, sustained run of excellence. Adding a Prince accelerates the process after the foundation has been grounded."
From an AL official: "Strasburg's future is more important [to the Nationals] than Prince Fielder. Good impact bat for them, but I can't see same numbers for him now that he's out of Milwaukee and NL Central. It's a different story playing in the NL East. Washington has a chance to be pretty good, but will need depth, and if they sign Fielder -- along with Werth's contract -- they are going to need to have a lot coming out of the organization's farm system. This might make it tough for them to keep guys like Zimmerman down the road."
Rumors are circulating about the Nationals and Fielder, writes Amanda Comak.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• There are doubts within the hierarchy of the Miami Marlins about whether Carlos Zambrano has enough zip to ever be a frontline pitcher again, because his fastball velocity has dropped into the 89-90 mph range. Last year, he had No. 5 starter stuff to go along with the temperament that essentially got him launched out of Chicago.
But for almost no risk -- for $2.5 million, according to Juan Rodriguez -- the Marlins figure that, at the very least, he could be an innings-eater in a year in which he's pitching for his next contract and has every reason to hold it together. Volstad had exhausted his opportunities with the Miami organization, and unless he had a major turnaround for them in 2012, he was going to be a non-tender candidate anyway.
The Marlins now have a rotation of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco and Zambrano, as Clark Spencer writes.
For the Chicago Cubs, their Zambrano ordeal is over, writes Dave van Dyck. This is a win for the Cubs, writes Phil Rogers.
Not to place blame at the feet of anyone in particular, but it is incredible how little the Cubs have gotten in return for the most expensive signings in the history of their franchise -- Zambrano, Milton Bradley, Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano, who have cost the franchise something in the range of $300 million.
• The Cubs have talked with other teams about Matt Garza, and so far, the gap between what Chicago wants and what other teams are offering has been sizable, probably for a couple of reasons:
No. 1: The trade return for players within a couple of years of free agency has been plummeting, and Garza is on target to hit the market in the fall of 2013.
No. 2: Many talent evaluators view Garza as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, rather than a No. 1 or No. 2. It might behoove the Cubs to keep Garza in the hope that he pitches well, so they can better market him in the weeks leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.
• The Atlanta Braves have a similar situation with Jair Jurrjens that the Cubs do with Garza -- so far, the Braves haven't been able to get what they believe is an equal offer for a good young pitcher. Jurrjens is eligible for free agency after the 2014 season, he'll turn 26 later this month, and he had an excellent first half of the 2011 season. But rival evaluators are concerned about his injury history, and opposing teams haven't been offering what the Braves want -- a young outfielder who can help the Atlanta lineup right away.
• The Rays continue to look for a first baseman and a designated hitter at a time when the market has Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman and others. One option among many is the Mets' Daniel Murphy -- and on paper, the Rays and Mets would seem to have a possible fit, because New York is looking for young starting pitching, and Murphy is an excellent hitter who doesn't strike out a lot. Given the nature of the Rays' offense -- which relies on on-base percentage and speed -- Murphy's ability to put the ball in play could be viewed by Tampa Bay as a significant asset.
Coco Crisp turned down an offer from the Rays.
• The Hall of Fame voting has created all kinds of logic challenges for the voters, particularly those who believe that any link to performance-enhancing drugs -- either through admission or documentation or mere suspicion -- should eliminate a candidate.
For them, here's an interesting question: If Ryan Braun is suspended for his positive drug test, will writers never again consider Braun for any award during his playing career? In other words, if he's suspended 50 games this year, then passes all subsequent tests and hits 60 homers in 2015, would they leave him off their MVP ballot because of what transpired in 2011-12?
Because that's essentially what a lot of voters are doing with the Hall of Fame candidates. One link -- even a suspected link -- is enough to earn a lifetime ban in the eyes of those voters.
• Joe Torre resigned from his job with Major League Baseball to be part of a group that includes developer Rick Caruso.
Torre's group doesn't necessarily have an inside edge, so he is leaving his MLB position without knowing if he actually will wind up as part of the Dodgers' hierarchy. The expectation is that the next owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers will be the group that offers the most money -- pure and simple, almost no politics attached -- and you wonder whether the competition could drive this bidding closer to $1.5 billion. These are serious folks involved with serious money, and they wouldn't get into the process without being committed.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Detroit Tigers signed Eric Patterson.
2. The Tigers don't have Jacob Turner on the trading block, writes Lynn Henning. To be clear: It was never written here that Turner was on the trading block -- only that the Tigers were willing to trade him for the right pitcher, and presumably that list would be very small, because Turner is so highly regarded.
3. The St. Louis Cardinals hired a scouting director.
4. Dealing Seth Smith would help the Colorado Rockies pay for pitching, and he has drawn interest from the Oakland Athletics.
5. The Cincinnati Reds and Francisco Cordero seemed destined to work something out.
6. Bobby Jenks just became a giant question mark for the Boston Red Sox.
7. The Pittsburgh Pirates signed Logan Kensing.
8. Not surprisingly, the New York Yankees aren't going to sign a shortstop from Japan; there just wasn't enough playing time in it for him.
9. The Arizona Diamondbacks are not motivated to trade Gerardo Parra, writes Nick Piecoro.
10. Mark Trumbo's injury still hasn't healed, writes Mark DiGiovanna. Not good.
11. The Texas Rangers are focusing on a one-year deal with Mike Napoli, for now, as Evan Grant writes.
12. The Milwaukee Brewers are going to check out an outfielder from Japan this weekend.
13. Fernando Rodney apologized to the Tampa Bay media, 2½ years after the fact.
14. Francisco Liriano is going to pitch in winter ball after all.
MLB's invisible salary floor line.
Spoiler [+]
There is no hard salary floor established in the labor agreement, no specific minimum dollar amount that teams are required to spend. But there is an understanding between Major League Baseball and the players' association that the 30 teams will at least participate in the process and won't consistently work to field a bunch of minimum-wage players.
The Oakland Athletics signed Coco Crisp for $14 million during the next two seasons, and that may help the Athletics avoid getting slapped on the wrist by MLB and the union, which rendered that punishment a few years ago to the Florida Marlins.
The Athletics' strategy this winter is transparent: Because the team doesn't believe it can compete with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, given the current circumstances, Oakland decided to invest its assets to fight another day. Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey were swapped for prospects who may blossom in 2015 or 2016, by which time the Athletics hope to inhabit a new ballpark in San Jose.
The Athletics opened 2011 with a payroll of about $67 million, but through the free-agent departures of players like Josh Willingham and the trades of players like Mark Ellis, Oakland has dramatically slashed its payroll.
Kurt Suzuki earns $5 million this season, as part of his deal that runs through 2013, and Brett Anderson will make $3 million this year. Brian Fuentes is set to make $5 million in the upcoming season, Grant Balfour will earn $4 million, Daric Barton will make $1.1 million, Adam Rosales will make $600,000 and Dallas Braden negotiated a $3.35 million deal. That's about $22 million in payroll obligations to go along with the cost of Oakland's arbitration-eligible players like Brandon McCarthy.
With the signing of Crisp, Oakland will have at least $30 million in payroll obligations, and with other moves, the Athletics figure to move closer to $40 million -- which, some executives believe, is the unofficial budget floor that MLB and the union would like to see from its teams.
Billy Beane isn't to blame for the sad state of the Athletics, writes Bruce Jenkins. Within this piece, he writes Oakland's payroll will be around $55 million. Other Oakland players are glad to have Crisp back, as Susan Slusser writes.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Washington Nationals have met with Prince Fielder's agent, Scott Boras, writes Bill Ladson.
The Seattle Mariners are in a holding pattern as they wait for Fielder to make his decision, writes Geoff Baker.
• The Houston Astros feel like they made a ground-breaking hire: a director of decision sciences.
• Earlier in this offseason, some executives say, the perceived asking price for Edwin Jackson was in the range of the John Lackey and A.J. Burnett deals -- in the $80 million range. This has since come down, they say.
Running to catch an early flight this morning, so we'll hit the links.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Los Angeles Dodgers' bid deadline has been backed up.
2. The Minnesota Twins have invited a whole lot of folks to spring training.
3. Carlos Silva is among those going to spring training with the Boston Red Sox.
4. Dan Connelly examines the Baltimore Orioles' dilemma with marketing Adam Jones.
Here's the bottom line: Unless his OPS and offensive production changes dramatically, Jones' value in the trade market will go down markedly every year before he becomes eligible for free agency. He is a respected talent, but rival scouts do have questions about his approach at the plate. If he were to have a breakout year in 2012, the Orioles could get the impact-type of pitcher for him that they seek.
Jones: OBP/BB/K
2009: .335/36/93
2010: .325/23/119
2011: .319/29/113
5. A young Colorado Rockies infielder is eager for his shot at the second-base job, writes Troy Renck.
6. The New York Yankees are setting their sights on the free-agent class of next fall, writes Tyler Kepner.
They're hanging onto the resources until they can go after the right pitcher -- a strategy that worked in the year they landed CC Sabathia, and one that didn't pay off in the year that Cliff Lee went into free agency.
7. Money matters to the Red Sox, reports the Associated Press.
8. The Philadelphia Phillies are content with what they have, writes Jim Salisbury.
9. The New York Mets signed a shortstop with a PED past, writes Andy Martino.
10. The Miami Marlins re-signed Greg Dobbs.
11. Yu Darvish is on a tour of Texas; no deal has been reached. It'd be a shocker if he fails to sign.
12. The Tampa Bay Rays are close to a deal with Fernando Rodney.
The Oakland Athletics signed Coco Crisp for $14 million during the next two seasons, and that may help the Athletics avoid getting slapped on the wrist by MLB and the union, which rendered that punishment a few years ago to the Florida Marlins.
The Athletics' strategy this winter is transparent: Because the team doesn't believe it can compete with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, given the current circumstances, Oakland decided to invest its assets to fight another day. Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey were swapped for prospects who may blossom in 2015 or 2016, by which time the Athletics hope to inhabit a new ballpark in San Jose.
The Athletics opened 2011 with a payroll of about $67 million, but through the free-agent departures of players like Josh Willingham and the trades of players like Mark Ellis, Oakland has dramatically slashed its payroll.
Kurt Suzuki earns $5 million this season, as part of his deal that runs through 2013, and Brett Anderson will make $3 million this year. Brian Fuentes is set to make $5 million in the upcoming season, Grant Balfour will earn $4 million, Daric Barton will make $1.1 million, Adam Rosales will make $600,000 and Dallas Braden negotiated a $3.35 million deal. That's about $22 million in payroll obligations to go along with the cost of Oakland's arbitration-eligible players like Brandon McCarthy.
With the signing of Crisp, Oakland will have at least $30 million in payroll obligations, and with other moves, the Athletics figure to move closer to $40 million -- which, some executives believe, is the unofficial budget floor that MLB and the union would like to see from its teams.
Billy Beane isn't to blame for the sad state of the Athletics, writes Bruce Jenkins. Within this piece, he writes Oakland's payroll will be around $55 million. Other Oakland players are glad to have Crisp back, as Susan Slusser writes.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Washington Nationals have met with Prince Fielder's agent, Scott Boras, writes Bill Ladson.
The Seattle Mariners are in a holding pattern as they wait for Fielder to make his decision, writes Geoff Baker.
• The Houston Astros feel like they made a ground-breaking hire: a director of decision sciences.
• Earlier in this offseason, some executives say, the perceived asking price for Edwin Jackson was in the range of the John Lackey and A.J. Burnett deals -- in the $80 million range. This has since come down, they say.
Running to catch an early flight this morning, so we'll hit the links.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Los Angeles Dodgers' bid deadline has been backed up.
2. The Minnesota Twins have invited a whole lot of folks to spring training.
3. Carlos Silva is among those going to spring training with the Boston Red Sox.
4. Dan Connelly examines the Baltimore Orioles' dilemma with marketing Adam Jones.
Here's the bottom line: Unless his OPS and offensive production changes dramatically, Jones' value in the trade market will go down markedly every year before he becomes eligible for free agency. He is a respected talent, but rival scouts do have questions about his approach at the plate. If he were to have a breakout year in 2012, the Orioles could get the impact-type of pitcher for him that they seek.
Jones: OBP/BB/K
2009: .335/36/93
2010: .325/23/119
2011: .319/29/113
5. A young Colorado Rockies infielder is eager for his shot at the second-base job, writes Troy Renck.
6. The New York Yankees are setting their sights on the free-agent class of next fall, writes Tyler Kepner.
They're hanging onto the resources until they can go after the right pitcher -- a strategy that worked in the year they landed CC Sabathia, and one that didn't pay off in the year that Cliff Lee went into free agency.
7. Money matters to the Red Sox, reports the Associated Press.
8. The Philadelphia Phillies are content with what they have, writes Jim Salisbury.
9. The New York Mets signed a shortstop with a PED past, writes Andy Martino.
10. The Miami Marlins re-signed Greg Dobbs.
11. Yu Darvish is on a tour of Texas; no deal has been reached. It'd be a shocker if he fails to sign.
12. The Tampa Bay Rays are close to a deal with Fernando Rodney.
Top 10 MLB storylines for 2012.
Spoiler [+]
We have already ranked the top 10 teams, lineups, infields, outfields, bullpens and rotations heading into the 2012 season.
As we wait for Prince Fielder to make his decision, here are the top 10 stories for 2012:
1. The attempted rebranding of the Miami Marlins
They are baseball's great gamblers, having bet heavily on a complete overhaul of the organization: A new ballpark, a new color scheme, new uniforms, a new manager, a new shortstop in Jose Reyes, a new rotation leader in Mark Buehrle, and a new closer in Heath Bell. Some baseball executives fret over the strategy, but it's worked for other teams, such as the San Francisco Giants. If the Marlins rush to the top of the standings next season and immediately establish a new era, this has a chance to be an extraordinary success. If the Marlins flame out early and fans don't show up, epitaphs for the franchise will be written.
A Marlins official maintained at the winter meetings that Hanley Ramirez was all warm and fuzzy about moving to third base. But maybe he's getting the memo today that a month later, Ramirez has decided he's OK with the switch. Ramirez also said there is no problem between him and Reyes. There is a new Hanley, Ramirez says.
2. Albert Pujols has left the building
A year ago, Pujols and Derek Jeter seemed like the two superstars most likely to play their entire careers with one team. But now Pujols has left the St. Louis Cardinals for the Los Angeles Angels, for whom he will stoke baseball's best new rivalry.
The Angels have a great rotation, some dynamic young outfielders and now Pujols, and the Texas Rangers have arguably the best depth of any organization in the majors.
3. Rangers try to push the rock back up the hill, again
Texas came within one strike of winning the World Series, twice, and instead the Rangers had their guts ripped out in October for the second straight year. Right after their Game 7 loss to St. Louis, the Texas players held a brief meeting to talk about setting goals for 2012 -- but the attempt at yet another climb back to the World Series will undoubtedly be excruciating at times.
They'll have to answer a whole lot of questions with references to the Buffalo Bills, and the Angels should be improved with the additions of Pujols and C.J. Wilson. The wide expectation around the sport is that the Rangers eventually will work out a deal with Yu Darvish, along the same lines of the deal that Daisuke Matsuzaka got with the Boston Red Sox.
4. Bobby Valentine rides to the rescue (or at least that's what the blueprint says)
The Red Sox are coming off the greatest collapse in history, and ownership reacted strongly by dumping Terry Francona, allowing Theo Epstein to walk out the door, and then hiring Valentine. New general manager Ben Cherington has shuffled the bullpen and the back end of the rotation.
Now the question is: How will the players react? Will Josh Beckett and Jon Lester rebound after their September struggles? Will Carl Crawford bounce back?
And here's another one: How will Boston react? If the team struggles early, how much patience will the Fenway faithful have?
5. Will our nation's capital become baseball's capital?
The Washington Nationals are widely regarded as a team on the rise with the most renowned young pitcher in Stephen Strasburg and the most heralded position prospect in Bryce Harper, who figures to make a very loud major league debut sometime in 2012.
If Washington were to get Fielder, the Nationals may well vault into the ranks of baseball's powers.
Wrote here last week that the Nationals are considered by some to be the presumptive landing spot for Fielder. Adam Kilgore has more, and so does Tom Haudricourt.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers fans, rejoice
The ownership of Frank McCourt is likely in its final days, barring some unforeseen events, and a new sheriff will be riding into town -- and the impact figures to be immediate.
The Dodgers' real payroll (dollars spent on the 2012 team and not the salary deferrals) is actually about $90 million for the upcoming season, which means that the next owner will likely come and have a lot of room to increase the budget -- for someone like Southern California's own Cole Hamels, who will be the most coveted free agent next fall if he stays healthy through the upcoming season.
7. The fate of the Oakland Athletics
By trading the likes of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey, the Athletics are clearly positioning their roster for a possible launch in 2015 or 2016 -- or about the same time they hope to be in a new ballpark in San Jose. If the commissioner does announce a move from Oakland to San Jose, it may well set off a legal response from the San Francisco Giants, who claim territorial rights.
If the commissioner doesn't announce the move of the Athletics, there figures to be some tangible shift in the team's ownership, with the Athletics perhaps becoming a new version of the Montreal Expos -- property of Major League Baseball.
8. What will the Cincinnati Reds do with Joey Votto?
The Reds have fended off all trade inquiries about their All-Star first baseman, with Walt Jocketty stating flatly that the team is trying to win and keeping the club's best player -- and Votto is arguably among the sport's two or three best players -- is part of that strategy. But other clubs continue to circle the Reds like sharks, believing that eventually the financial reality that Cincinnati will struggle to keep Votto may manifest itself; Votto is in line to earn $25 million a year, or more, with his next contract, which would represent about 30 percent of Cincinnati's budget.
If the Reds contend this summer, of course, there is no chance he would be traded during the season.
9. Milestones
If healthy, Alex Rodriguez will be climbing past a lot of legends this summer. He needs one homer to tie Ken Griffey Jr. at 630 for his career, and with 31 homers, Rodriguez would tie Willie Mays. A-Rod needs 76 runs for 1,900 in his career, which would place him 10th all time, right behind Stan Musial and just ahead of Lou Gehrig. With 60 RBIs, Rodriguez will move into sixth place all time.
Paul Konerko needs four homers for 400 in his career. With 155 hits, Derek Jeter would climb from 20th all time in career hits to 13th, passing Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn and his childhood favorite, Dave Winfield.
10. The dreaded Hall of Fame candidates of 2013 will be submitted for history's approval
Barry Bonds will appear on the ballot, and so will Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and others suspected of steroid use. Let the never-ending debate rage over this question: Do they belong in the Hall of Fame?
And a bonus selection: Ryan Braun's appeal. No major league player has ever successfully challenged a positive test, so the decision will be historic, either way. Braun will either become the first reigning MVP to be suspended -- for 50 games, under the current rules -- or he will create a precedent for future testing.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Baltimore Orioles are talking to Coco Crisp and discussing an Adam Jones trade with the Atlanta Braves. Crisp is ready to choose, writes Susan Slusser.
2. The Red Sox are looking for bargains for their rotation, writes Peter Abraham. The New York Yankees are in the same mode: They'd like a starter but only at the right (read: inexpensive) price.
3. Boston has eight arbitration cases coming up, including Jacoby Ellsbury.
4. The Toronto Blue Jays picked up Jason Frasor.
5. The San Diego Padres could be looking at some contract extensions, writes Bill Center.
As we wait for Prince Fielder to make his decision, here are the top 10 stories for 2012:
1. The attempted rebranding of the Miami Marlins
They are baseball's great gamblers, having bet heavily on a complete overhaul of the organization: A new ballpark, a new color scheme, new uniforms, a new manager, a new shortstop in Jose Reyes, a new rotation leader in Mark Buehrle, and a new closer in Heath Bell. Some baseball executives fret over the strategy, but it's worked for other teams, such as the San Francisco Giants. If the Marlins rush to the top of the standings next season and immediately establish a new era, this has a chance to be an extraordinary success. If the Marlins flame out early and fans don't show up, epitaphs for the franchise will be written.
A Marlins official maintained at the winter meetings that Hanley Ramirez was all warm and fuzzy about moving to third base. But maybe he's getting the memo today that a month later, Ramirez has decided he's OK with the switch. Ramirez also said there is no problem between him and Reyes. There is a new Hanley, Ramirez says.
2. Albert Pujols has left the building
A year ago, Pujols and Derek Jeter seemed like the two superstars most likely to play their entire careers with one team. But now Pujols has left the St. Louis Cardinals for the Los Angeles Angels, for whom he will stoke baseball's best new rivalry.
The Angels have a great rotation, some dynamic young outfielders and now Pujols, and the Texas Rangers have arguably the best depth of any organization in the majors.
3. Rangers try to push the rock back up the hill, again
Texas came within one strike of winning the World Series, twice, and instead the Rangers had their guts ripped out in October for the second straight year. Right after their Game 7 loss to St. Louis, the Texas players held a brief meeting to talk about setting goals for 2012 -- but the attempt at yet another climb back to the World Series will undoubtedly be excruciating at times.
They'll have to answer a whole lot of questions with references to the Buffalo Bills, and the Angels should be improved with the additions of Pujols and C.J. Wilson. The wide expectation around the sport is that the Rangers eventually will work out a deal with Yu Darvish, along the same lines of the deal that Daisuke Matsuzaka got with the Boston Red Sox.
4. Bobby Valentine rides to the rescue (or at least that's what the blueprint says)
The Red Sox are coming off the greatest collapse in history, and ownership reacted strongly by dumping Terry Francona, allowing Theo Epstein to walk out the door, and then hiring Valentine. New general manager Ben Cherington has shuffled the bullpen and the back end of the rotation.
Now the question is: How will the players react? Will Josh Beckett and Jon Lester rebound after their September struggles? Will Carl Crawford bounce back?
And here's another one: How will Boston react? If the team struggles early, how much patience will the Fenway faithful have?
5. Will our nation's capital become baseball's capital?
The Washington Nationals are widely regarded as a team on the rise with the most renowned young pitcher in Stephen Strasburg and the most heralded position prospect in Bryce Harper, who figures to make a very loud major league debut sometime in 2012.
If Washington were to get Fielder, the Nationals may well vault into the ranks of baseball's powers.
Wrote here last week that the Nationals are considered by some to be the presumptive landing spot for Fielder. Adam Kilgore has more, and so does Tom Haudricourt.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers fans, rejoice
The ownership of Frank McCourt is likely in its final days, barring some unforeseen events, and a new sheriff will be riding into town -- and the impact figures to be immediate.
The Dodgers' real payroll (dollars spent on the 2012 team and not the salary deferrals) is actually about $90 million for the upcoming season, which means that the next owner will likely come and have a lot of room to increase the budget -- for someone like Southern California's own Cole Hamels, who will be the most coveted free agent next fall if he stays healthy through the upcoming season.
7. The fate of the Oakland Athletics
By trading the likes of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey, the Athletics are clearly positioning their roster for a possible launch in 2015 or 2016 -- or about the same time they hope to be in a new ballpark in San Jose. If the commissioner does announce a move from Oakland to San Jose, it may well set off a legal response from the San Francisco Giants, who claim territorial rights.
If the commissioner doesn't announce the move of the Athletics, there figures to be some tangible shift in the team's ownership, with the Athletics perhaps becoming a new version of the Montreal Expos -- property of Major League Baseball.
8. What will the Cincinnati Reds do with Joey Votto?
The Reds have fended off all trade inquiries about their All-Star first baseman, with Walt Jocketty stating flatly that the team is trying to win and keeping the club's best player -- and Votto is arguably among the sport's two or three best players -- is part of that strategy. But other clubs continue to circle the Reds like sharks, believing that eventually the financial reality that Cincinnati will struggle to keep Votto may manifest itself; Votto is in line to earn $25 million a year, or more, with his next contract, which would represent about 30 percent of Cincinnati's budget.
If the Reds contend this summer, of course, there is no chance he would be traded during the season.
9. Milestones
If healthy, Alex Rodriguez will be climbing past a lot of legends this summer. He needs one homer to tie Ken Griffey Jr. at 630 for his career, and with 31 homers, Rodriguez would tie Willie Mays. A-Rod needs 76 runs for 1,900 in his career, which would place him 10th all time, right behind Stan Musial and just ahead of Lou Gehrig. With 60 RBIs, Rodriguez will move into sixth place all time.
Paul Konerko needs four homers for 400 in his career. With 155 hits, Derek Jeter would climb from 20th all time in career hits to 13th, passing Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn and his childhood favorite, Dave Winfield.
10. The dreaded Hall of Fame candidates of 2013 will be submitted for history's approval
Barry Bonds will appear on the ballot, and so will Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and others suspected of steroid use. Let the never-ending debate rage over this question: Do they belong in the Hall of Fame?
And a bonus selection: Ryan Braun's appeal. No major league player has ever successfully challenged a positive test, so the decision will be historic, either way. Braun will either become the first reigning MVP to be suspended -- for 50 games, under the current rules -- or he will create a precedent for future testing.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Baltimore Orioles are talking to Coco Crisp and discussing an Adam Jones trade with the Atlanta Braves. Crisp is ready to choose, writes Susan Slusser.
2. The Red Sox are looking for bargains for their rotation, writes Peter Abraham. The New York Yankees are in the same mode: They'd like a starter but only at the right (read: inexpensive) price.
3. Boston has eight arbitration cases coming up, including Jacoby Ellsbury.
4. The Toronto Blue Jays picked up Jason Frasor.
5. The San Diego Padres could be looking at some contract extensions, writes Bill Center.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Money no object for Nats with Fielder[/h3]
10:10AM ET
[h5]Washington Nationals [/h5]
The most prominent team in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, at least for the last day or two, is the Washington Nationals. If there is significant mutual interest, money will not be an object, writes Ken Rosenthal.
Rosenthal notes that Lerner is among the game's wealthiest owners, according to Forbes, and adds that the Nats' local TV revenue is about to increase dramatically. That revenue, reported to be $29 million a year, soon will "double, triple or more," a major-league source tells Rosenthal.
As we mentioned earlier this week, the Nats may not want to hand out more than $20 million a year to Fielder when Ryan Zimmerman's contract needs taken care of sooner than later, and he will command a rather large amount of money, too. But Zimmerman had his best years when he had a prominent hitter in Adam Dunn hitting behind him.
Lerner appears to have the resources to land Fielder, even after committing $126 million to Jayson Werth last winter. It could come down to whether he is willing to pull the trigger.
In Thursday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney discusses the pros and cons of Fielder heading to DC. One drawback for the Nats is the cost down the road:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Fielder in DC?
http://[h3]Hairston back to Queens?[/h3]
10:00AM ET
[h5]Scott Hairston | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets appear to be on the verge of re-signing veteran outfielder Scott Hairston, who hit just .235 in a limited role last season.
Joel Sherman tweets Thursday morning that Hairston flew to New York on Tuesday for a physical and it looks like the 31-year-old will be back in Queens.
Financial concerns likely prevented the Mets from pursuing an upgrade over Hairston, who hit just .195 with six RBI in 48 at-bats as a pinch hitter in 2011.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Setback for Trumbo[/h3]
9:41AM ET
[h5]Mark Trumbo | Angels [/h5]
The megadeal for Albert Pujols means the Los Angeles Angels need to find a new position, if not a new team, for Mark Trumbo, who hit 29 homers and drove in 87 runs as the Halos' primary first baseman in 2011.
Trumbo's role for 2012 is more uncertain with word from Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times that a stress fracture in Trumbo's right foot will take about five months to heal, a timetable that will push his rehabilitation to the start of spring training in late February.
Trumbo says he is several weeks from resuming baseball activities. DiGiovanna says the setback could delay a potential move to third base, where Alberto Callaspo is now atop the depth chart.
With Kendrys Morales also on the roster, Trumbo's name has popped up as trade bait, but any deal may now have to wait until Trumbo comes to camp and proves he is healthy. The Angels may be looking to add a reliever, and this could eliminate a bargaining chip.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]-backs not looking to deal Parra[/h3]
9:21AM ET
[h5]Gerardo Parra | Diamondbacks [/h5]
Arizona general manager Kevin Towers does not appear motivated to trade Gerardo Parra simply because the D-backs have a relative surplus of outfielders.
The surprising signing of http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6102/jason-kubelJason Kubel last month appeared to make Parra expendable, but Towers tells Nick Piecoro there are still plenty of at-bats left for the 24-year-old who hit .292 last season.
Towers seens Parra seeing more time in center field and right field as a way of resting starters http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6073/chris-youngChris Young and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28841/justin-uptonJustin Upton. Kubel will get the lion's share of the time in left field.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Aoki to work out for Brewers[/h3]
9:01AM ET
[h5]Ryan Braun | Brewers [/h5]
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28721/ryan-braunRyan Braun's appeal of a positive drug test and pending 50-game suspension will be heard later this month, and the timing could have an impact on the Milwaukee Brewers' pursuit of Norichika Aoki.
The Brewers have until January 17 to reach a deal with Aoki after winning negotiating rights to the Japanese outfielder last month. If the suspension is upheld, the Brewers would have more playing time to offer Aoki, a three-time batting champion in Japan. The Brewers already have in place a center field platoon of Nyjer Morgan and Carlos Gomez.
Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel reports the Brewers will work Aoki this weekend in Phoenix to determine whether they will pursue signing him. The workout will be closed to the media and fans.
Earlier this week, Haudricourt talked to an official familiar with the appeals process who was not overly optimistic about Braun's chances of winning.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Who replaces Torre at MLB?[/h3]
8:11AM ET
[h5]Joe Torre [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Joe Torre stepped down as MLB's executive VP of baseball operations Wednesday to join a prospective ownership group that will be among those competing to buy the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Early speculation on a Torre successor has centered on Tony La Russa, who recently retired from the Cardinals after winning the World Series, and Andy MacPhail, who recently resigned as head of baseball operations for the Orioles. A report in the New York Daily News says Bud Selig wants another high-profile name to replace Torre, who was hired after Sandy Alderson left to become GM of the New York Mets.
Both La Russa and MacPhail would qualify on that front, but that might eliminate former Dodgers assistant GM Kim Ng, who was hired as a Senior VP by Torre.
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun predicts MacPhail will get back in the game at some point, but not right now.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]No deal for Nakajima?[/h3]
7:42AM ET
[h5]Hiroyuki Nakajima [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The Yankees may have a few more days to sign Hiroyuki Nakajima than originally thought, but there are no signs that a deal is imminent, and Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger tweeted Tuesday that it appears a deal is unlikely.
Nakajima wants to play on West Coast and wants money that reflects a role as an everyday player. Since there's no chance he plays every day for the Yankees, the math just doesn't add up to a contract agreement.
The Yankees won the bid for Nakajima last month with a bid of about $2 million.
While the talks are continuing, there are concerns whether Nakajima is a fit in New York, writes Andy Martino in Tuesday's New York Daily News.
If Nakajima signs, he would alter the team's bench, making it less likely the Yankees would re-sign Eric Chavez.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Dan Szymborski[/h5]
Nakajima's value
http://[h3]No multi-year deal for Napoli[/h3]
7:11AM ET
[h5]Mike Napoli | Rangers [/h5]
Mike Napoli was the Texas Rangers' best hitter last season and perhaps the best hitter in baseball from July through the end of the season. That said, it doesn't appear that the catcher is going to get a multi-year pact this offseason, reports T.R. Sullivan.
Napoli made $5.8 million in 2011 and figures o get a substantial raise, perhaps more than $8 million. "We love Mike and we're not closing the door on anything but right now we are focused on a one-year deal," GM Jon Daniels said.
Napoli will be a free agent after next season without a long-term extension so it appears he'll hit the open market next winter where he's likely to be among the more coveted hitters.
- Jason A. Churchill
Remaining needs for all teams.
Washington's end game for Fielder.
MLB's invisible salary floor line.
Top 10 MLB storylines for 2012.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Reds have upper hand with Cordero[/h3]
11:04AM ET
[h5]Francisco Cordero | Reds [/h5]
Francisco Cordero waited too long before signing a deal, and that has given the Cincinnati Reds the upper hand in negotiations to bring back their closer, says John Fay of the Enquirer.
Fay says Cordero, who at one point reportedly turned down a two-year, $14 million offer, may have to "swallow his pride" and accept a one-year deal for less than what he would have gotten per year under the two-year deal.
Cordero and Ryan Madson are the two viable closers still left on the market. The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers may be interested in adding another late-inning arm, but the Rangers appear out on the pricey versions, which would eliminate Cordero and Madson.
The Twins also could look for a closer upgrade, but may be willing to settle on Matt Capps, who blew nine save chances last season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Crisp almost landed in Tampa[/h3]
10:45AM ET
[h5]Coco Crisp | Athletics [/h5]
Coco Crisp almost signed with the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend before deciding to remain in Oakland once the A's stepped up their offer, reports Susan Slusser of the %u201D<a href=/www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/05/SPUM1ML01V.DTL%u201D">http://www.sfgate.com/cgi.../05/SPUM1ML01V.DTL%u201D" target=new>San Francisco Chronicle.
The veteran outfielder tells Slusser he was intrigued with the possibility of playing for Rays manager Joe Maddon in a competitive division, but a more lucrative contract from Oakland and the chance to be closer to his family on the West Coast won out. Crisp agreed to a two-year, $14 million deal, which includes a $7.5 million team option for 2014.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Murphy a fit in Tampa?[/h3]
10:33AM ET
[h5]Daniel Murphy | Mets [/h5]
We mentioned earlier this week there are plenty of free agent first basemen left on the market who are simply waiting for Prince Fielder to make up his mind before making a move of their own. That list includes Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney says the Tampa Bay Rays are among the teams looking for a first baseman and a DH.
Olney suggests one option among many is the Mets' Daniel Murphy, which seems to be a logical fit given the Mets' quest for young solid pitching. Murphy may not hit for power, but can but the ball in play, a trait that would be attractive to a Rays team that values on-base percentage.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Impact of Big Z to Miami[/h3]
10:15AM ET
[h5]Carlos Zambrano | Cubs [/h5]
The moment Ozzie Guillen was hired by the Marlins, the speculation began that he might like to take a crack at solving Carlos Zambrano.
Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reported Wednesday evening that the deal is done and will send right-hander Chris Volstad to the Cubs.
Zambrano is due $18 million guaranteed over the next two seasons -- nearly $40 million if his option vests, though that appears highly unlikely -- and Levine adds that the Cubs will cover $15 million of that total.
If the Cubs also deal http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28528/matt-garzaMatt Garza, their starting rotation would consist of http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3845/ryan-dempsterRyan Dempster, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28943/randy-wellsRandy Wells and Volstad. Candidates for the final two spots include http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30515/travis-woodTravis Wood, Casey Coleman and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30134/andrew-cashnerAndrew Cashner. A Garza deal is likely to bring some pitching back, as the Cubs have indicated that is their preferred return package.
Dave van Dyck writes in Thursday's Chicago Tribune that Cubs president Theo Epstein did not want to chance another meltdown by the volatile Zambrano.
Zambrano likely represents the final starting pitching addition of the offseason for the Marlins, who could insert Zambrano into the No. 4 or 5 spot and hope he returns to form.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Deal makes sense for Fish
11:04AM ET
[h5]Francisco Cordero | Reds [/h5]
Francisco Cordero waited too long before signing a deal, and that has given the Cincinnati Reds the upper hand in negotiations to bring back their closer, says John Fay of the Enquirer.
Fay says Cordero, who at one point reportedly turned down a two-year, $14 million offer, may have to "swallow his pride" and accept a one-year deal for less than what he would have gotten per year under the two-year deal.
Cordero and Ryan Madson are the two viable closers still left on the market. The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers may be interested in adding another late-inning arm, but the Rangers appear out on the pricey versions, which would eliminate Cordero and Madson.
The Twins also could look for a closer upgrade, but may be willing to settle on Matt Capps, who blew nine save chances last season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Crisp almost landed in Tampa[/h3]
10:45AM ET
[h5]Coco Crisp | Athletics [/h5]
Coco Crisp almost signed with the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend before deciding to remain in Oakland once the A's stepped up their offer, reports Susan Slusser of the %u201D<a href=/www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/05/SPUM1ML01V.DTL%u201D">http://www.sfgate.com/cgi.../05/SPUM1ML01V.DTL%u201D" target=new>San Francisco Chronicle.
The veteran outfielder tells Slusser he was intrigued with the possibility of playing for Rays manager Joe Maddon in a competitive division, but a more lucrative contract from Oakland and the chance to be closer to his family on the West Coast won out. Crisp agreed to a two-year, $14 million deal, which includes a $7.5 million team option for 2014.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Murphy a fit in Tampa?[/h3]
10:33AM ET
[h5]Daniel Murphy | Mets [/h5]
We mentioned earlier this week there are plenty of free agent first basemen left on the market who are simply waiting for Prince Fielder to make up his mind before making a move of their own. That list includes Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney says the Tampa Bay Rays are among the teams looking for a first baseman and a DH.
Olney suggests one option among many is the Mets' Daniel Murphy, which seems to be a logical fit given the Mets' quest for young solid pitching. Murphy may not hit for power, but can but the ball in play, a trait that would be attractive to a Rays team that values on-base percentage.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Impact of Big Z to Miami[/h3]
10:15AM ET
[h5]Carlos Zambrano | Cubs [/h5]
The moment Ozzie Guillen was hired by the Marlins, the speculation began that he might like to take a crack at solving Carlos Zambrano.
Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reported Wednesday evening that the deal is done and will send right-hander Chris Volstad to the Cubs.
Zambrano is due $18 million guaranteed over the next two seasons -- nearly $40 million if his option vests, though that appears highly unlikely -- and Levine adds that the Cubs will cover $15 million of that total.
If the Cubs also deal http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28528/matt-garzaMatt Garza, their starting rotation would consist of http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3845/ryan-dempsterRyan Dempster, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28943/randy-wellsRandy Wells and Volstad. Candidates for the final two spots include http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30515/travis-woodTravis Wood, Casey Coleman and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30134/andrew-cashnerAndrew Cashner. A Garza deal is likely to bring some pitching back, as the Cubs have indicated that is their preferred return package.
Dave van Dyck writes in Thursday's Chicago Tribune that Cubs president Theo Epstein did not want to chance another meltdown by the volatile Zambrano.
Zambrano likely represents the final starting pitching addition of the offseason for the Marlins, who could insert Zambrano into the No. 4 or 5 spot and hope he returns to form.
- Jason A. Churchill
Deal makes sense for Fish
10:10AM ET
[h5]Washington Nationals [/h5]
The most prominent team in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, at least for the last day or two, is the Washington Nationals. If there is significant mutual interest, money will not be an object, writes Ken Rosenthal.
Rosenthal notes that Lerner is among the game's wealthiest owners, according to Forbes, and adds that the Nats' local TV revenue is about to increase dramatically. That revenue, reported to be $29 million a year, soon will "double, triple or more," a major-league source tells Rosenthal.
As we mentioned earlier this week, the Nats may not want to hand out more than $20 million a year to Fielder when Ryan Zimmerman's contract needs taken care of sooner than later, and he will command a rather large amount of money, too. But Zimmerman had his best years when he had a prominent hitter in Adam Dunn hitting behind him.
Lerner appears to have the resources to land Fielder, even after committing $126 million to Jayson Werth last winter. It could come down to whether he is willing to pull the trigger.
In Thursday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney discusses the pros and cons of Fielder heading to DC. One drawback for the Nats is the cost down the road:
- Doug Mittler
Fielder in DC?
http://[h3]Hairston back to Queens?[/h3]
10:00AM ET
[h5]Scott Hairston | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets appear to be on the verge of re-signing veteran outfielder Scott Hairston, who hit just .235 in a limited role last season.
Joel Sherman tweets Thursday morning that Hairston flew to New York on Tuesday for a physical and it looks like the 31-year-old will be back in Queens.
Financial concerns likely prevented the Mets from pursuing an upgrade over Hairston, who hit just .195 with six RBI in 48 at-bats as a pinch hitter in 2011.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Setback for Trumbo[/h3]
9:41AM ET
[h5]Mark Trumbo | Angels [/h5]
The megadeal for Albert Pujols means the Los Angeles Angels need to find a new position, if not a new team, for Mark Trumbo, who hit 29 homers and drove in 87 runs as the Halos' primary first baseman in 2011.
Trumbo's role for 2012 is more uncertain with word from Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times that a stress fracture in Trumbo's right foot will take about five months to heal, a timetable that will push his rehabilitation to the start of spring training in late February.
Trumbo says he is several weeks from resuming baseball activities. DiGiovanna says the setback could delay a potential move to third base, where Alberto Callaspo is now atop the depth chart.
With Kendrys Morales also on the roster, Trumbo's name has popped up as trade bait, but any deal may now have to wait until Trumbo comes to camp and proves he is healthy. The Angels may be looking to add a reliever, and this could eliminate a bargaining chip.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]-backs not looking to deal Parra[/h3]
9:21AM ET
[h5]Gerardo Parra | Diamondbacks [/h5]
Arizona general manager Kevin Towers does not appear motivated to trade Gerardo Parra simply because the D-backs have a relative surplus of outfielders.
The surprising signing of http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6102/jason-kubelJason Kubel last month appeared to make Parra expendable, but Towers tells Nick Piecoro there are still plenty of at-bats left for the 24-year-old who hit .292 last season.
Towers seens Parra seeing more time in center field and right field as a way of resting starters http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6073/chris-youngChris Young and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28841/justin-uptonJustin Upton. Kubel will get the lion's share of the time in left field.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Aoki to work out for Brewers[/h3]
9:01AM ET
[h5]Ryan Braun | Brewers [/h5]
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28721/ryan-braunRyan Braun's appeal of a positive drug test and pending 50-game suspension will be heard later this month, and the timing could have an impact on the Milwaukee Brewers' pursuit of Norichika Aoki.
The Brewers have until January 17 to reach a deal with Aoki after winning negotiating rights to the Japanese outfielder last month. If the suspension is upheld, the Brewers would have more playing time to offer Aoki, a three-time batting champion in Japan. The Brewers already have in place a center field platoon of Nyjer Morgan and Carlos Gomez.
Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel reports the Brewers will work Aoki this weekend in Phoenix to determine whether they will pursue signing him. The workout will be closed to the media and fans.
Earlier this week, Haudricourt talked to an official familiar with the appeals process who was not overly optimistic about Braun's chances of winning.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Who replaces Torre at MLB?[/h3]
8:11AM ET
[h5]Joe Torre [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Joe Torre stepped down as MLB's executive VP of baseball operations Wednesday to join a prospective ownership group that will be among those competing to buy the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Early speculation on a Torre successor has centered on Tony La Russa, who recently retired from the Cardinals after winning the World Series, and Andy MacPhail, who recently resigned as head of baseball operations for the Orioles. A report in the New York Daily News says Bud Selig wants another high-profile name to replace Torre, who was hired after Sandy Alderson left to become GM of the New York Mets.
Both La Russa and MacPhail would qualify on that front, but that might eliminate former Dodgers assistant GM Kim Ng, who was hired as a Senior VP by Torre.
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun predicts MacPhail will get back in the game at some point, but not right now.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]No deal for Nakajima?[/h3]
7:42AM ET
[h5]Hiroyuki Nakajima [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The Yankees may have a few more days to sign Hiroyuki Nakajima than originally thought, but there are no signs that a deal is imminent, and Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger tweeted Tuesday that it appears a deal is unlikely.
Nakajima wants to play on West Coast and wants money that reflects a role as an everyday player. Since there's no chance he plays every day for the Yankees, the math just doesn't add up to a contract agreement.
The Yankees won the bid for Nakajima last month with a bid of about $2 million.
While the talks are continuing, there are concerns whether Nakajima is a fit in New York, writes Andy Martino in Tuesday's New York Daily News.
If Nakajima signs, he would alter the team's bench, making it less likely the Yankees would re-sign Eric Chavez.
- Doug Mittler
Nakajima's value
http://[h3]No multi-year deal for Napoli[/h3]
7:11AM ET
[h5]Mike Napoli | Rangers [/h5]
Mike Napoli was the Texas Rangers' best hitter last season and perhaps the best hitter in baseball from July through the end of the season. That said, it doesn't appear that the catcher is going to get a multi-year pact this offseason, reports T.R. Sullivan.
Napoli made $5.8 million in 2011 and figures o get a substantial raise, perhaps more than $8 million. "We love Mike and we're not closing the door on anything but right now we are focused on a one-year deal," GM Jon Daniels said.
Napoli will be a free agent after next season without a long-term extension so it appears he'll hit the open market next winter where he's likely to be among the more coveted hitters.
- Jason A. Churchill
Remaining needs for all teams.
Spoiler [+]
Baseball's winter meetings are now a month gone and most of the remaining big free agents have signed. But with more than 100 major league free agents remaining (and even more minor league free agents), the Hot Stove season has a lot of action remaining.
With only a handful of true stars available for teams this winter on the market, most teams still have a lot of work ahead of them -- not everybody can sign Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson and call it a winter.
So which teams have the most things on their to-do list? Every team will do at least something in the seven weeks until spring training starts, but some clearly have a ways to go in preparing for the 2012 season. Here's a rundown of what all 30 teams could still use before pitchers and catchers report, ranked by teams that figure to be most active to least:
[h3]1. Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nationals have shown a willingness to spend big money this offseason and have been in the conversation for every star free agent, but they were unable to land any of them. Prince Fielder is still out there, and Washington is the likely favorite for him with Michael Morse shifting back to the outfield.
Gio Gonzalez may not be a true ace, but he fills a big hole in the rotation. If the Nats can add Fielder, then they become a serious wild-card contender along with the other upstart in the division, the Miami Marlins. Any big moves remaining will likely have to be done with cash, as Bryce Harper remains untouchable and Washington unloaded half of its top prospects to bring in Gonzalez.
[h3]2. Boston Red Sox[/h3]
The waiting may be the hardest part, but the Red Sox came out very well at closer, getting Andrew Bailey for Josh Reddick -- who is more likely to be a fourth outfielder down the road than a starter -- and two lesser prospects. The team still needs to consider options in right field -- Ryan Sweeney is a nice throw-in, but he's a versatile role player rather than a starter in a corner spot.
Boston could use another starter but is unlikely to go after Edwin Jackson. The Red Sox should try to get Roy Oswalt on a short-term deal with performance incentives.
[h3]3. New York Yankees[/h3]
Keeping CC Sabathia was the team's biggest offseason priority. The Yankees closed the deal quickly and have been pretty quiet since, giving out only $4 million in free agent contracts thus far, or about 1/80th of the Angels' payout. The Yankees should also be in on Oswalt and still have a few more days to negotiate with Seibu Lions shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Nakajima's more interesting down the road (if signed), as he becomes at least a short-term option as a Derek Jeter successor, especially considering Eduardo Nunez's inconsistent defense last year.
[h3]4. Atlanta Braves[/h3]
The Braves have done practically nothing this offseason, their biggest moves being the signing of minor league free agents Adam Russell, Josh Wilson and Drew Sutton. That's likely to change, with Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens remaining on the trade block. Given the depth of their system and the packages fetched for Mat Latos and Gonzalez, the Braves are in a good position to get value for Jurrjens.
I don't expect them to trade Tim Hudson, but dealing him later this winter could fetch quite a bit and bring in some much-needed depth.
[h3]5. Chicago Cubs[/h3]
Theo Epstein's running the show in Chicago, but he hasn't given much indication to what direction the Cubs will be going the next few years. While the trade of Matt Garza is likely and they haven't replaced Aramis Ramirez at third, the Cubs have given enough hints of interest in Prince Fielder to make their motivation unclear. The Braves aren't the only team salivating at the haul that Latos and Gonzalez fetched, and it's hard to seriously push for 2012 with a mediocre roster and the possibility of getting that much back for Garza.
David DeJesus is a terrific value signing for any team. I expect Chicago to continue a moderate rebuild, as opposed to the more extreme Oakland-type rebuilding job.
[h3]6. Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
The Blue Jays are in that awkward place in which they have too much talent to simply rip the team apart and not enough to seriously challenge the Big Three in the AL East. The team did go after Yu Darvish but fell short in the auction for his negotiation rights, so Toronto will almost certainly increase its efforts to bring in Fielder.
It would also be helpful if the Jays made some decisions on what to do with their less stellar 1B/DH/LF types, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind and Travis Snider.
[h3]7. San Diego Padres[/h3]
It would be very surprising if the Padres were finished following the Carlos Quentin trade, given that the team now has Quentin, Yonder Alonso, Jesus Guzman, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Blanks and Will Venable for three starting jobs. The team's set with a preliminary rotation of some combination of Edinson Volquez, Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Dustin Moseley and Cory Luebke, but those arms are more precarious than their ERAs suggest.
They are all helped by Petco Park, and thanks to the continued decline in league offense, a league-average ERA in Petco in 2011 was down to 3.54. But some teams are inevitably going to lose out on Fielder and even Carlos Pena, and the Padres need to have a Plan B.
[h3]8. Texas Rangers[/h3]
The Angels' moves necessitated the team doing something, and something they did, winning the bidding for the exclusive rights to negotiate with the best prospect ever from Japan in Darvish.
Fielder's definitely on the back burner now -- unless negotiations with Darvish turn sour -- but it doesn't mean the Rangers should stop looking at an upgrade at first, with Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman still out there.
[h3]9. Miami Marlins[/h3]
Even with the additions of Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes, the Fish may not be done yet, competing with the Detroit Tigers to land Matt Garza from the Cubs.
Miami has been scouting Vicente Padilla to compete for a job, and one of its biggest moves may not even be an acquisition, but getting Hanley Ramirez to be at peace with his much-needed move to third base.
[h3]10. Colorado Rockies[/h3]
The Rockies haven't been connected with any of the big-name free agents (I didn't forget Michael Cuddyer) but are likely to move Seth Smith -- who was made obsolete with the signing of Cuddyer -- and have been connected with several of the remaining trade possibilities.
Colorado's still targeting Martin Prado for a supersub role and is in the running to bring in Garza. While a blockbuster is unlikely, the team does have some flexibility and could move anyone not named Troy or Carlos for the right deal, as shown by the speed in which they cashed in Ubaldo Jimenez last season for prospects.
[h3]11. Baltimore Orioles[/h3]
After last year's ill-fated attempt to hot-shot a .500 season, the Orioles have been very quiet this season and will likely remain so. Joe Saunders remains a possibility for the team given that the O's have a sore need for an innings-eater. And while the Orioles put their toe into the Fielder waters, that's extremely unlikely.
The O's are more likely to sign Japanese pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma and need to either come to terms with Adam Jones on a long-term contract or start exploring a trade.
[h3]12. Detroit Tigers[/h3]
The Tigers remain in win-now mode and are right to be willing to part with Jacob Turner if they can bring in Garza -- Turner's not quite ready to be a solid major league starter, and the Tigers aren't a young team.
Garza's the main target, but if the Cubs hang on to him or trade him elsewhere, Edwin Jackson is the most promising name left and Detroit already knows him.
[h3]13. Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
While I'm not a fan of bringing in Aramis Ramirez when the Brewers have Taylor Green and Mat Gamel at the corners and nothing comparable at short, he's still a solid bat, though not remotely to the level of the departed Fielder.
Milwaukee won the rights to sign Norichika Aoki, but he's not a must-sign the way Darvish was. The team still could use another outfielder, given that it seems very likely that Ryan Braun will lose his appeal and miss 50 games.
[h3]14. Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The Rays will likely spend the rest of the winter making a few low-key moves, with Pena the best replacement for Kotchman left in the market. Tampa Bay didn't pull the trigger on any trades during the winter meetings, but it's still likely as the Rays have a surplus of talent. With San Diego accumulating first basemen for some reason, it may be a good opportunity to snag Anthony Rizzo in a buy-low opportunity that would be consistent with the team's moves in the past.
They should probably at least call the Giants about Brandon Belt, given that team's baffling fascination with Brett Pill, though that's a long shot.
[h3]15. Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
As exciting as it was for Pirates fans for their team to be relevant for a brief period in midseason last year, the Pirates aren't finished rebuilding and the front office seems to realize that rather than make a premature push.
Pittsburgh made a great value signing in Erik Bedard and will probably sign a few more players to similar deals. The Pirates really need to get moving and get Andrew McCutchen signed to a long-term contract.
[h3]16. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
Arizona may overpay for utility players, but the core of the surprising 2011 squad returns in 2012, with Saunders replaced with the far more intriguing Trevor Cahill. While I think Arizona made a mistake in signing Jason Kubel -- considering Gerardo Parra's stellar defensive numbers -- it's still poised to be one of the NL West favorites in 2012, along with the Rockies and Giants.
With a repeat performance, the Diamondbacks may be in a position to have a very interesting offseason next year, as only Miguel Montero is unsigned for 2013 (Stephen Drew and Chris Young have 2013 options). The ZiPS projection system sees Paul Goldschmidt as a league-average player (though not a star), so Arizona doesn't even need to make a move at first unless some huge opportunity arises.
[h3]17. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
In my opinion, no team has had a worse offseason than the Giants. With a team that just missed the playoffs and its weakest positions being almost custom-fit for some of the biggest players available in the market, San Francisco passed on Jose Reyes with barely a raised eyebrow and showed almost no interest in bringing back Carlos Beltran or pursuing Jimmy Rollins. Sure, Melky Cabrera is a better hitter than Aaron Rowand, but he's a defensive liability in center and has nowhere near the potential with the bat that Brandon Belt would have in left.
The Giants also have made little progress on the Matt Cain extension, though I guess they did have time to put in a bid for Willie Bloomquist. With most of the players that would really help the Giants' offense gone, don't expect much of significance to happen in January.
[h3]18. Seattle Mariners[/h3]
Without Fielder, the Mariners are likely to be pretty ugly in 2012. With Fielder, the Mariners are likely to be pretty ugly in 2012. Washington missing out on Wilson and Buehrle may be the best thing for the Mariners, as the Nationals are now going hard after Fielder.
This team doesn't have the talent to compete in the short term, so as large an improvement as Fielder is over the player they were sending out there last year, the Mariners should be looking at younger guys with upside rather than a quick non-fix.
[h3]19. Cleveland Indians[/h3]
Bringing Grady Sizemore back at a contract with upside for Cleveland was a big priority. With that accomplished, the Indians didn't lose any of their key players to free agency. They also signed Jose Lopez to a minor league contract, and while Lopez was horrific the past two years, he's still just 28 and brings little risk to camp.
The Indians will probably make more moves in that vein, but nothing major.
[h3]20. Minnesota Twins[/h3]
The Twins made a good pseudo-swap, bringing in Josh Willingham while letting Cuddyer go, but they have a lot to fix and going after guys like Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick won't be enough to make them relevant.
Jason Marquis can eat innings, but the Twins have too much lousy pitching. Problem is, there's too little good pitching available.
[h3]21. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
Los Angeles had to make a decision on Matt Kemp, and after trade rumors surrounding the should-have-been-MVP, it signed him to an eight-year, $160 million contract. The Dodgers followed that up with a flurry of third-tier signings, enough that they have spent the fourth-most in the free-agent market ($42.9 million).
Only problem is, most of these aforementioned signings (Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Mark Ellis, Adam Kennedy, Juan Rivera) seem geared to making the Dodgers the NL West favorite … for the 2006 season.
[h3]22. Oakland Athletics[/h3]
If you have an offer for anybody, the A's will listen at this point. After trading Cahill, Gonzalez and Bailey so far this winter, it's clear that no player on the roster can't be had in a deal that helps the A's move closer to contention a few seasons from now.
The plan appears to be to go for the full slash-and-burn rebuild and hope their aspirations to land a new ballpark in San Jose are fulfilled.
[h3]23. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies are still looking at Cuban imports Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler. With Jonathan Papelbon signed for $50 million, Rollins back, and Jim Thome and Brian Schneider filling out the roster, they're most likely just making moves on the margins from here on out.
Philadelphia will be without Ryan Howard for most, if not all, of 2012, but acquiring another first baseman at this point in the offseason seems unlikely.
[h3]24. Chicago White Sox[/h3]
While the White Sox gave John Danks the long-term deal he was looking for, they are clearly retooling by trading Quentin, Sergio Santos and Jason Frasor and not resigning their longtime ace in Buehrle.
The Sox are more likely to trade Gavin Floyd at this point than re-sign him and will probably be conservative about any other signings this offseason.
[h3]25. New York Mets[/h3]
With the Mets' ownership so light for cash that they might want to consider busking in the subway to bring in some dough, the Mets will continue to primarily be sellers the rest of the winter.
If they can't keep David Wright long-term, there's little point in keeping him around to hit in the middle of the order for a fifth-place team. With few third base options available, Wright's value is unlikely to increase later.
[h3]26. St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]
They get Adam Wainwright back, essentially an "addition" as good as anything else they could do at this point, The Cardinals made the signings they needed to, getting Beltran for a very reasonable figure and keeping Rafael Furcal.
Outside of finding a medical cure for their partiality to Skip Schumaker, the Cardinals' 2012 roster is mostly completed.
[h3]27. Cincinnati Reds[/h3]
Naturally, a day after I suggest that the Reds mainly stand pat this winter, they turn around and pull off a big swap for Padres hurler Mat Latos. They've offered only one year to Francisco Cordero and turned down any suggestion of Ryan Madson, so it seems unlikely the Reds will be big players in January.
They have a point -- the Cardinals lost Pujols, the Brewers (unofficially) lost Fielder, and the Reds still retain their MVP candidate in Joey Votto.
[h3]28. Kansas City Royals[/h3]
The rebuilding continues. Kansas City will continue to bring in dollar-store bargains, especially pitchers, and probably won't land anyone bigger than, say, Paul Maholm. Hiroki Kuroda is still out there and would probably be a shorter-term commitment than Edwin Jackson.
Problem is, Kuroda reportedly wants to stay on the West Coast if at all possible, and despite the Pacific Coast League featuring teams in Omaha and Iowa, the beach is a long drive from Kansas City.
[h3]29. Houston Astros[/h3]
Now comes the non-fun part of a big rebuild, when you've already traded everyone of value. Wandy Rodriguez has value, but it's hard to expect too much in return while teams still chase Garza.
Otherwise, this appears to be a quiet winter for Houston without many players worth trading.
[h3]30. Los Angeles Angels[/h3]
They got their holiday shopping done early, giving out $334.5 million to free agents this winter. That's more than the next three biggest spenders (Miami, Philadelphia, L.A. Dodgers) combined at $326 million. The AL West should be a whole lot more fun, but the Angels will probably have a quiet January and February.
Outside of stealing a third baseman like Taylor Green from the Brewers, the Angels will give Mark Trumbo every opportunity to try to handle the hot corner.
With only a handful of true stars available for teams this winter on the market, most teams still have a lot of work ahead of them -- not everybody can sign Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson and call it a winter.
So which teams have the most things on their to-do list? Every team will do at least something in the seven weeks until spring training starts, but some clearly have a ways to go in preparing for the 2012 season. Here's a rundown of what all 30 teams could still use before pitchers and catchers report, ranked by teams that figure to be most active to least:
[h3]1. Washington Nationals[/h3]
The Nationals have shown a willingness to spend big money this offseason and have been in the conversation for every star free agent, but they were unable to land any of them. Prince Fielder is still out there, and Washington is the likely favorite for him with Michael Morse shifting back to the outfield.
Gio Gonzalez may not be a true ace, but he fills a big hole in the rotation. If the Nats can add Fielder, then they become a serious wild-card contender along with the other upstart in the division, the Miami Marlins. Any big moves remaining will likely have to be done with cash, as Bryce Harper remains untouchable and Washington unloaded half of its top prospects to bring in Gonzalez.
[h3]2. Boston Red Sox[/h3]
The waiting may be the hardest part, but the Red Sox came out very well at closer, getting Andrew Bailey for Josh Reddick -- who is more likely to be a fourth outfielder down the road than a starter -- and two lesser prospects. The team still needs to consider options in right field -- Ryan Sweeney is a nice throw-in, but he's a versatile role player rather than a starter in a corner spot.
Boston could use another starter but is unlikely to go after Edwin Jackson. The Red Sox should try to get Roy Oswalt on a short-term deal with performance incentives.
[h3]3. New York Yankees[/h3]
Keeping CC Sabathia was the team's biggest offseason priority. The Yankees closed the deal quickly and have been pretty quiet since, giving out only $4 million in free agent contracts thus far, or about 1/80th of the Angels' payout. The Yankees should also be in on Oswalt and still have a few more days to negotiate with Seibu Lions shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Nakajima's more interesting down the road (if signed), as he becomes at least a short-term option as a Derek Jeter successor, especially considering Eduardo Nunez's inconsistent defense last year.
[h3]4. Atlanta Braves[/h3]
The Braves have done practically nothing this offseason, their biggest moves being the signing of minor league free agents Adam Russell, Josh Wilson and Drew Sutton. That's likely to change, with Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens remaining on the trade block. Given the depth of their system and the packages fetched for Mat Latos and Gonzalez, the Braves are in a good position to get value for Jurrjens.
I don't expect them to trade Tim Hudson, but dealing him later this winter could fetch quite a bit and bring in some much-needed depth.
[h3]5. Chicago Cubs[/h3]
Theo Epstein's running the show in Chicago, but he hasn't given much indication to what direction the Cubs will be going the next few years. While the trade of Matt Garza is likely and they haven't replaced Aramis Ramirez at third, the Cubs have given enough hints of interest in Prince Fielder to make their motivation unclear. The Braves aren't the only team salivating at the haul that Latos and Gonzalez fetched, and it's hard to seriously push for 2012 with a mediocre roster and the possibility of getting that much back for Garza.
David DeJesus is a terrific value signing for any team. I expect Chicago to continue a moderate rebuild, as opposed to the more extreme Oakland-type rebuilding job.
[h3]6. Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
The Blue Jays are in that awkward place in which they have too much talent to simply rip the team apart and not enough to seriously challenge the Big Three in the AL East. The team did go after Yu Darvish but fell short in the auction for his negotiation rights, so Toronto will almost certainly increase its efforts to bring in Fielder.
It would also be helpful if the Jays made some decisions on what to do with their less stellar 1B/DH/LF types, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind and Travis Snider.
[h3]7. San Diego Padres[/h3]
It would be very surprising if the Padres were finished following the Carlos Quentin trade, given that the team now has Quentin, Yonder Alonso, Jesus Guzman, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Blanks and Will Venable for three starting jobs. The team's set with a preliminary rotation of some combination of Edinson Volquez, Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Dustin Moseley and Cory Luebke, but those arms are more precarious than their ERAs suggest.
They are all helped by Petco Park, and thanks to the continued decline in league offense, a league-average ERA in Petco in 2011 was down to 3.54. But some teams are inevitably going to lose out on Fielder and even Carlos Pena, and the Padres need to have a Plan B.
[h3]8. Texas Rangers[/h3]
The Angels' moves necessitated the team doing something, and something they did, winning the bidding for the exclusive rights to negotiate with the best prospect ever from Japan in Darvish.
Fielder's definitely on the back burner now -- unless negotiations with Darvish turn sour -- but it doesn't mean the Rangers should stop looking at an upgrade at first, with Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman still out there.
[h3]9. Miami Marlins[/h3]
Even with the additions of Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes, the Fish may not be done yet, competing with the Detroit Tigers to land Matt Garza from the Cubs.
Miami has been scouting Vicente Padilla to compete for a job, and one of its biggest moves may not even be an acquisition, but getting Hanley Ramirez to be at peace with his much-needed move to third base.
[h3]10. Colorado Rockies[/h3]
The Rockies haven't been connected with any of the big-name free agents (I didn't forget Michael Cuddyer) but are likely to move Seth Smith -- who was made obsolete with the signing of Cuddyer -- and have been connected with several of the remaining trade possibilities.
Colorado's still targeting Martin Prado for a supersub role and is in the running to bring in Garza. While a blockbuster is unlikely, the team does have some flexibility and could move anyone not named Troy or Carlos for the right deal, as shown by the speed in which they cashed in Ubaldo Jimenez last season for prospects.
[h3]11. Baltimore Orioles[/h3]
After last year's ill-fated attempt to hot-shot a .500 season, the Orioles have been very quiet this season and will likely remain so. Joe Saunders remains a possibility for the team given that the O's have a sore need for an innings-eater. And while the Orioles put their toe into the Fielder waters, that's extremely unlikely.
The O's are more likely to sign Japanese pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma and need to either come to terms with Adam Jones on a long-term contract or start exploring a trade.
[h3]12. Detroit Tigers[/h3]
The Tigers remain in win-now mode and are right to be willing to part with Jacob Turner if they can bring in Garza -- Turner's not quite ready to be a solid major league starter, and the Tigers aren't a young team.
Garza's the main target, but if the Cubs hang on to him or trade him elsewhere, Edwin Jackson is the most promising name left and Detroit already knows him.
[h3]13. Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
While I'm not a fan of bringing in Aramis Ramirez when the Brewers have Taylor Green and Mat Gamel at the corners and nothing comparable at short, he's still a solid bat, though not remotely to the level of the departed Fielder.
Milwaukee won the rights to sign Norichika Aoki, but he's not a must-sign the way Darvish was. The team still could use another outfielder, given that it seems very likely that Ryan Braun will lose his appeal and miss 50 games.
[h3]14. Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The Rays will likely spend the rest of the winter making a few low-key moves, with Pena the best replacement for Kotchman left in the market. Tampa Bay didn't pull the trigger on any trades during the winter meetings, but it's still likely as the Rays have a surplus of talent. With San Diego accumulating first basemen for some reason, it may be a good opportunity to snag Anthony Rizzo in a buy-low opportunity that would be consistent with the team's moves in the past.
They should probably at least call the Giants about Brandon Belt, given that team's baffling fascination with Brett Pill, though that's a long shot.
[h3]15. Pittsburgh Pirates[/h3]
As exciting as it was for Pirates fans for their team to be relevant for a brief period in midseason last year, the Pirates aren't finished rebuilding and the front office seems to realize that rather than make a premature push.
Pittsburgh made a great value signing in Erik Bedard and will probably sign a few more players to similar deals. The Pirates really need to get moving and get Andrew McCutchen signed to a long-term contract.
[h3]16. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
Arizona may overpay for utility players, but the core of the surprising 2011 squad returns in 2012, with Saunders replaced with the far more intriguing Trevor Cahill. While I think Arizona made a mistake in signing Jason Kubel -- considering Gerardo Parra's stellar defensive numbers -- it's still poised to be one of the NL West favorites in 2012, along with the Rockies and Giants.
With a repeat performance, the Diamondbacks may be in a position to have a very interesting offseason next year, as only Miguel Montero is unsigned for 2013 (Stephen Drew and Chris Young have 2013 options). The ZiPS projection system sees Paul Goldschmidt as a league-average player (though not a star), so Arizona doesn't even need to make a move at first unless some huge opportunity arises.
[h3]17. San Francisco Giants[/h3]
In my opinion, no team has had a worse offseason than the Giants. With a team that just missed the playoffs and its weakest positions being almost custom-fit for some of the biggest players available in the market, San Francisco passed on Jose Reyes with barely a raised eyebrow and showed almost no interest in bringing back Carlos Beltran or pursuing Jimmy Rollins. Sure, Melky Cabrera is a better hitter than Aaron Rowand, but he's a defensive liability in center and has nowhere near the potential with the bat that Brandon Belt would have in left.
The Giants also have made little progress on the Matt Cain extension, though I guess they did have time to put in a bid for Willie Bloomquist. With most of the players that would really help the Giants' offense gone, don't expect much of significance to happen in January.
[h3]18. Seattle Mariners[/h3]
Without Fielder, the Mariners are likely to be pretty ugly in 2012. With Fielder, the Mariners are likely to be pretty ugly in 2012. Washington missing out on Wilson and Buehrle may be the best thing for the Mariners, as the Nationals are now going hard after Fielder.
This team doesn't have the talent to compete in the short term, so as large an improvement as Fielder is over the player they were sending out there last year, the Mariners should be looking at younger guys with upside rather than a quick non-fix.
[h3]19. Cleveland Indians[/h3]
Bringing Grady Sizemore back at a contract with upside for Cleveland was a big priority. With that accomplished, the Indians didn't lose any of their key players to free agency. They also signed Jose Lopez to a minor league contract, and while Lopez was horrific the past two years, he's still just 28 and brings little risk to camp.
The Indians will probably make more moves in that vein, but nothing major.
[h3]20. Minnesota Twins[/h3]
The Twins made a good pseudo-swap, bringing in Josh Willingham while letting Cuddyer go, but they have a lot to fix and going after guys like Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick won't be enough to make them relevant.
Jason Marquis can eat innings, but the Twins have too much lousy pitching. Problem is, there's too little good pitching available.
[h3]21. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
Los Angeles had to make a decision on Matt Kemp, and after trade rumors surrounding the should-have-been-MVP, it signed him to an eight-year, $160 million contract. The Dodgers followed that up with a flurry of third-tier signings, enough that they have spent the fourth-most in the free-agent market ($42.9 million).
Only problem is, most of these aforementioned signings (Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Mark Ellis, Adam Kennedy, Juan Rivera) seem geared to making the Dodgers the NL West favorite … for the 2006 season.
[h3]22. Oakland Athletics[/h3]
If you have an offer for anybody, the A's will listen at this point. After trading Cahill, Gonzalez and Bailey so far this winter, it's clear that no player on the roster can't be had in a deal that helps the A's move closer to contention a few seasons from now.
The plan appears to be to go for the full slash-and-burn rebuild and hope their aspirations to land a new ballpark in San Jose are fulfilled.
[h3]23. Philadelphia Phillies[/h3]
The Phillies are still looking at Cuban imports Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler. With Jonathan Papelbon signed for $50 million, Rollins back, and Jim Thome and Brian Schneider filling out the roster, they're most likely just making moves on the margins from here on out.
Philadelphia will be without Ryan Howard for most, if not all, of 2012, but acquiring another first baseman at this point in the offseason seems unlikely.
[h3]24. Chicago White Sox[/h3]
While the White Sox gave John Danks the long-term deal he was looking for, they are clearly retooling by trading Quentin, Sergio Santos and Jason Frasor and not resigning their longtime ace in Buehrle.
The Sox are more likely to trade Gavin Floyd at this point than re-sign him and will probably be conservative about any other signings this offseason.
[h3]25. New York Mets[/h3]
With the Mets' ownership so light for cash that they might want to consider busking in the subway to bring in some dough, the Mets will continue to primarily be sellers the rest of the winter.
If they can't keep David Wright long-term, there's little point in keeping him around to hit in the middle of the order for a fifth-place team. With few third base options available, Wright's value is unlikely to increase later.
[h3]26. St. Louis Cardinals[/h3]
They get Adam Wainwright back, essentially an "addition" as good as anything else they could do at this point, The Cardinals made the signings they needed to, getting Beltran for a very reasonable figure and keeping Rafael Furcal.
Outside of finding a medical cure for their partiality to Skip Schumaker, the Cardinals' 2012 roster is mostly completed.
[h3]27. Cincinnati Reds[/h3]
Naturally, a day after I suggest that the Reds mainly stand pat this winter, they turn around and pull off a big swap for Padres hurler Mat Latos. They've offered only one year to Francisco Cordero and turned down any suggestion of Ryan Madson, so it seems unlikely the Reds will be big players in January.
They have a point -- the Cardinals lost Pujols, the Brewers (unofficially) lost Fielder, and the Reds still retain their MVP candidate in Joey Votto.
[h3]28. Kansas City Royals[/h3]
The rebuilding continues. Kansas City will continue to bring in dollar-store bargains, especially pitchers, and probably won't land anyone bigger than, say, Paul Maholm. Hiroki Kuroda is still out there and would probably be a shorter-term commitment than Edwin Jackson.
Problem is, Kuroda reportedly wants to stay on the West Coast if at all possible, and despite the Pacific Coast League featuring teams in Omaha and Iowa, the beach is a long drive from Kansas City.
[h3]29. Houston Astros[/h3]
Now comes the non-fun part of a big rebuild, when you've already traded everyone of value. Wandy Rodriguez has value, but it's hard to expect too much in return while teams still chase Garza.
Otherwise, this appears to be a quiet winter for Houston without many players worth trading.
[h3]30. Los Angeles Angels[/h3]
They got their holiday shopping done early, giving out $334.5 million to free agents this winter. That's more than the next three biggest spenders (Miami, Philadelphia, L.A. Dodgers) combined at $326 million. The AL West should be a whole lot more fun, but the Angels will probably have a quiet January and February.
Outside of stealing a third baseman like Taylor Green from the Brewers, the Angels will give Mark Trumbo every opportunity to try to handle the hot corner.
Washington's end game for Fielder.
Spoiler [+]
You can imagine Washington Nationals executives sitting around a conference table, weighing all the pros and cons of signing Prince Fielder, all the possible rewards, all the risks.
Put yourself in their place and think about all of these factors.
The pros:
1. Fielder's immediate impact on the lineup could be extraordinary and turn the Nationals into a power right away -- in the standings, and as a box-office draw and a boon to television ratings. During the past six seasons, Fielder has averaged 38 homers and 108 RBIs per year. His on-base percentage climbed to a career-high .415 last season. This is what the Nationals' lineup could look like by Aug. 1:
RF -- Jayson Werth
CF -- Bryce Harper
3B -- Ryan Zimmerman
1B -- Prince Fielder
LF -- Michael Morse
2B -- Danny Espinosa
C -- Wilson Ramos
SS -- Ian Desmond
This might be the best lineup in the National League, and if the Nationals' rotation "Big Three" -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg -- all stay healthy, this team could be good enough to play deep into the postseason.
2. The addition of Fielder would immediately boost the Nationals into a different place in the eyes of future free agents. Remember when Zack Greinke turned down tens of millions of dollars and a possible trade to Washington because he thought the team wasn't good enough? Well, instead, the Nationals would become a team that elite players would want to play for, the way the Philadelphia Phillies have been a preferred landing spot in recent years.
3. Fielder would fit the Nationals' big-picture plan because he's relatively young, and he would be on what is generally a very young team.
4. Quite simply, the addition of Fielder would make the Nationals eminently watchable. To borrow a phrase from Dustin Pedroia, imagine the laser show Washington could provide daily, with Fielder, Harper, etc. All of Major League Baseball's broadcast partners would fight to air their games.
The cons:
1. The cost for Fielder could hang on the Nationals for years. Presumably, the Nationals would have to pay him somewhere in the range of $24 million-$28 million for at least seven years. In 2016 and 2017, the Nationals would be on the hook for about $45 million annually for Fielder in his mid-30s and Werth in his late 30s -- a hell of a lot of money. History tells us that these enormous long-term contracts almost always become a major problem for franchises.
2. Signing Fielder leaves Washington no positional alternative with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, whose ability to make throws has become something of an issue. Some folks in the organization have thought that Zimmerman could eventually shift from third to first, but if Fielder comes on board, that can't happen. Zimmerman is set to make $12 million this year and $14 million next year, before becoming eligible for free agency.
3. Fielder's defense -- already considered subpar by a lot of scouts -- is more likely to regress than improve during the term of his contract. Part of the allure of a Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez is that they are excellent two-way players. This cannot be said of Fielder, and remember, the Nationals allowed Adam Dunn to walk away partly because they thought his defensive deficiencies eventually had a significant impact on the rest of the infield.
4. The Nationals would have to eat the money owed to Adam LaRoche, perhaps as part of a trade with a team like the Tampa Bay Rays, who are looking for a first baseman. This is really not that big a deal; if you are willing to spend $150-plus million on Fielder, the $9 million owed to LaRoche is not going to be an impediment.
For the readers: If you were in Mike Rizzo's shoes, and you faced this crossroads decision, what would you do?
I emailed some rival evaluators and asked them to assess the possible impact of the Nationals signing Fielder. Their responses:
From an AL evaluator: "Prince would be a nice addition for Washington, considering they were in the bottom half of the league in pretty much every significant category offensively last year. Even outlaying $20M+ per year this year wouldn't seem to restrict them too much in terms of their payroll, though 6-7 years down the line that kind of commitment to someone with his physical makeup could end up hurting them, especially if they choose to pay guys like Zimmerman and Strasburg moving forward (and Werth's contract becomes more costly).
"That being said, if these guys perform and the club competes, their revenue will surely spike, so in a sense signing Fielder to a six- or seven-year deal perhaps has more upside for their organization in particular than it would for some other clubs."
From an NL evaluator: "If the Nationals sign Prince Fielder, there is no question they become a better team and an immediate threat in the NL East. Compare them to the class of the division in Philadelphia: an infield of Fielder, Espinosa, Desmond and Zimmerman right now is equal to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco; the oldest player in the Nationals' projected infield is Fielder at age 27 whereas the youngest player in the Phillies' infield is 33. Looking at the outfields -- you have Shane Victorino as a free agent after 2012 and Hunter Pence as a free agent after 2013 while Washington has Werth, for better or worse, locked in for the next six years. Wilson Ramos is eight years younger than Carlos Ruiz and he's already a better player under team control for the next five years.
"The difference, in the short run, is the pitching, but again the age vs. youth is striking. The Phillies' Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are 35 and 34, respectively, while Cole Hamels, 28, is a free agent after 2012 while the Nationals' front three of Strasburg-Zimmermann-Gonzalez are 24-26-26 and John Lannan is 27. Same is true in the bullpen with Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, 25 and 27, respectively, significantly younger and with much more fresh arms than Jonathon Papelbon and Jose Contreras, 31 and 40, respectively.
"The other thing, which isn't mentioned as often, is the expansion of the playoffs to include a second wild card bodes well for the Nationals if they sign Fielder. They are putting together a young and formidable club, and even if they can't beat Philadelphia this year or next, more playoffs spots gives them a chance to go in as a young and hungry team with three very good starting pitchers. If Washington gets Fielder, there will be a price to be paid at some point as there is for all free agents, but they become really good really fast."
From an AL evaluator: "If the Nationals sign Prince it accelerates their time table. Fielder would give the Nats a quartet of mega-star caliber players in Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Zimmerman. Couple those anchors with Wilson Ramos, Espinosa, Werth and an above-average pitching staff, along with a burgeoning farm system to add pieces and depth to trade for needs. They are set up for a long, sustained run of excellence. Adding a Prince accelerates the process after the foundation has been grounded."
From an AL official: "Strasburg's future is more important [to the Nationals] than Prince Fielder. Good impact bat for them, but I can't see same numbers for him now that he's out of Milwaukee and NL Central. It's a different story playing in the NL East. Washington has a chance to be pretty good, but will need depth, and if they sign Fielder -- along with Werth's contract -- they are going to need to have a lot coming out of the organization's farm system. This might make it tough for them to keep guys like Zimmerman down the road."
Rumors are circulating about the Nationals and Fielder, writes Amanda Comak.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• There are doubts within the hierarchy of the Miami Marlins about whether Carlos Zambrano has enough zip to ever be a frontline pitcher again, because his fastball velocity has dropped into the 89-90 mph range. Last year, he had No. 5 starter stuff to go along with the temperament that essentially got him launched out of Chicago.
But for almost no risk -- for $2.5 million, according to Juan Rodriguez -- the Marlins figure that, at the very least, he could be an innings-eater in a year in which he's pitching for his next contract and has every reason to hold it together. Volstad had exhausted his opportunities with the Miami organization, and unless he had a major turnaround for them in 2012, he was going to be a non-tender candidate anyway.
The Marlins now have a rotation of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco and Zambrano, as Clark Spencer writes.
For the Chicago Cubs, their Zambrano ordeal is over, writes Dave van Dyck. This is a win for the Cubs, writes Phil Rogers.
Not to place blame at the feet of anyone in particular, but it is incredible how little the Cubs have gotten in return for the most expensive signings in the history of their franchise -- Zambrano, Milton Bradley, Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano, who have cost the franchise something in the range of $300 million.
• The Cubs have talked with other teams about Matt Garza, and so far, the gap between what Chicago wants and what other teams are offering has been sizable, probably for a couple of reasons:
No. 1: The trade return for players within a couple of years of free agency has been plummeting, and Garza is on target to hit the market in the fall of 2013.
No. 2: Many talent evaluators view Garza as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, rather than a No. 1 or No. 2. It might behoove the Cubs to keep Garza in the hope that he pitches well, so they can better market him in the weeks leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.
• The Atlanta Braves have a similar situation with Jair Jurrjens that the Cubs do with Garza -- so far, the Braves haven't been able to get what they believe is an equal offer for a good young pitcher. Jurrjens is eligible for free agency after the 2014 season, he'll turn 26 later this month, and he had an excellent first half of the 2011 season. But rival evaluators are concerned about his injury history, and opposing teams haven't been offering what the Braves want -- a young outfielder who can help the Atlanta lineup right away.
• The Rays continue to look for a first baseman and a designated hitter at a time when the market has Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman and others. One option among many is the Mets' Daniel Murphy -- and on paper, the Rays and Mets would seem to have a possible fit, because New York is looking for young starting pitching, and Murphy is an excellent hitter who doesn't strike out a lot. Given the nature of the Rays' offense -- which relies on on-base percentage and speed -- Murphy's ability to put the ball in play could be viewed by Tampa Bay as a significant asset.
Coco Crisp turned down an offer from the Rays.
• The Hall of Fame voting has created all kinds of logic challenges for the voters, particularly those who believe that any link to performance-enhancing drugs -- either through admission or documentation or mere suspicion -- should eliminate a candidate.
For them, here's an interesting question: If Ryan Braun is suspended for his positive drug test, will writers never again consider Braun for any award during his playing career? In other words, if he's suspended 50 games this year, then passes all subsequent tests and hits 60 homers in 2015, would they leave him off their MVP ballot because of what transpired in 2011-12?
Because that's essentially what a lot of voters are doing with the Hall of Fame candidates. One link -- even a suspected link -- is enough to earn a lifetime ban in the eyes of those voters.
• Joe Torre resigned from his job with Major League Baseball to be part of a group that includes developer Rick Caruso.
Torre's group doesn't necessarily have an inside edge, so he is leaving his MLB position without knowing if he actually will wind up as part of the Dodgers' hierarchy. The expectation is that the next owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers will be the group that offers the most money -- pure and simple, almost no politics attached -- and you wonder whether the competition could drive this bidding closer to $1.5 billion. These are serious folks involved with serious money, and they wouldn't get into the process without being committed.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Detroit Tigers signed Eric Patterson.
2. The Tigers don't have Jacob Turner on the trading block, writes Lynn Henning. To be clear: It was never written here that Turner was on the trading block -- only that the Tigers were willing to trade him for the right pitcher, and presumably that list would be very small, because Turner is so highly regarded.
3. The St. Louis Cardinals hired a scouting director.
4. Dealing Seth Smith would help the Colorado Rockies pay for pitching, and he has drawn interest from the Oakland Athletics.
5. The Cincinnati Reds and Francisco Cordero seemed destined to work something out.
6. Bobby Jenks just became a giant question mark for the Boston Red Sox.
7. The Pittsburgh Pirates signed Logan Kensing.
8. Not surprisingly, the New York Yankees aren't going to sign a shortstop from Japan; there just wasn't enough playing time in it for him.
9. The Arizona Diamondbacks are not motivated to trade Gerardo Parra, writes Nick Piecoro.
10. Mark Trumbo's injury still hasn't healed, writes Mark DiGiovanna. Not good.
11. The Texas Rangers are focusing on a one-year deal with Mike Napoli, for now, as Evan Grant writes.
12. The Milwaukee Brewers are going to check out an outfielder from Japan this weekend.
13. Fernando Rodney apologized to the Tampa Bay media, 2½ years after the fact.
14. Francisco Liriano is going to pitch in winter ball after all.
Put yourself in their place and think about all of these factors.
The pros:
1. Fielder's immediate impact on the lineup could be extraordinary and turn the Nationals into a power right away -- in the standings, and as a box-office draw and a boon to television ratings. During the past six seasons, Fielder has averaged 38 homers and 108 RBIs per year. His on-base percentage climbed to a career-high .415 last season. This is what the Nationals' lineup could look like by Aug. 1:
RF -- Jayson Werth
CF -- Bryce Harper
3B -- Ryan Zimmerman
1B -- Prince Fielder
LF -- Michael Morse
2B -- Danny Espinosa
C -- Wilson Ramos
SS -- Ian Desmond
This might be the best lineup in the National League, and if the Nationals' rotation "Big Three" -- Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg -- all stay healthy, this team could be good enough to play deep into the postseason.
2. The addition of Fielder would immediately boost the Nationals into a different place in the eyes of future free agents. Remember when Zack Greinke turned down tens of millions of dollars and a possible trade to Washington because he thought the team wasn't good enough? Well, instead, the Nationals would become a team that elite players would want to play for, the way the Philadelphia Phillies have been a preferred landing spot in recent years.
3. Fielder would fit the Nationals' big-picture plan because he's relatively young, and he would be on what is generally a very young team.
4. Quite simply, the addition of Fielder would make the Nationals eminently watchable. To borrow a phrase from Dustin Pedroia, imagine the laser show Washington could provide daily, with Fielder, Harper, etc. All of Major League Baseball's broadcast partners would fight to air their games.
The cons:
1. The cost for Fielder could hang on the Nationals for years. Presumably, the Nationals would have to pay him somewhere in the range of $24 million-$28 million for at least seven years. In 2016 and 2017, the Nationals would be on the hook for about $45 million annually for Fielder in his mid-30s and Werth in his late 30s -- a hell of a lot of money. History tells us that these enormous long-term contracts almost always become a major problem for franchises.
2. Signing Fielder leaves Washington no positional alternative with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, whose ability to make throws has become something of an issue. Some folks in the organization have thought that Zimmerman could eventually shift from third to first, but if Fielder comes on board, that can't happen. Zimmerman is set to make $12 million this year and $14 million next year, before becoming eligible for free agency.
3. Fielder's defense -- already considered subpar by a lot of scouts -- is more likely to regress than improve during the term of his contract. Part of the allure of a Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez is that they are excellent two-way players. This cannot be said of Fielder, and remember, the Nationals allowed Adam Dunn to walk away partly because they thought his defensive deficiencies eventually had a significant impact on the rest of the infield.
4. The Nationals would have to eat the money owed to Adam LaRoche, perhaps as part of a trade with a team like the Tampa Bay Rays, who are looking for a first baseman. This is really not that big a deal; if you are willing to spend $150-plus million on Fielder, the $9 million owed to LaRoche is not going to be an impediment.
For the readers: If you were in Mike Rizzo's shoes, and you faced this crossroads decision, what would you do?
I emailed some rival evaluators and asked them to assess the possible impact of the Nationals signing Fielder. Their responses:
From an AL evaluator: "Prince would be a nice addition for Washington, considering they were in the bottom half of the league in pretty much every significant category offensively last year. Even outlaying $20M+ per year this year wouldn't seem to restrict them too much in terms of their payroll, though 6-7 years down the line that kind of commitment to someone with his physical makeup could end up hurting them, especially if they choose to pay guys like Zimmerman and Strasburg moving forward (and Werth's contract becomes more costly).
"That being said, if these guys perform and the club competes, their revenue will surely spike, so in a sense signing Fielder to a six- or seven-year deal perhaps has more upside for their organization in particular than it would for some other clubs."
From an NL evaluator: "If the Nationals sign Prince Fielder, there is no question they become a better team and an immediate threat in the NL East. Compare them to the class of the division in Philadelphia: an infield of Fielder, Espinosa, Desmond and Zimmerman right now is equal to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco; the oldest player in the Nationals' projected infield is Fielder at age 27 whereas the youngest player in the Phillies' infield is 33. Looking at the outfields -- you have Shane Victorino as a free agent after 2012 and Hunter Pence as a free agent after 2013 while Washington has Werth, for better or worse, locked in for the next six years. Wilson Ramos is eight years younger than Carlos Ruiz and he's already a better player under team control for the next five years.
"The difference, in the short run, is the pitching, but again the age vs. youth is striking. The Phillies' Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are 35 and 34, respectively, while Cole Hamels, 28, is a free agent after 2012 while the Nationals' front three of Strasburg-Zimmermann-Gonzalez are 24-26-26 and John Lannan is 27. Same is true in the bullpen with Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, 25 and 27, respectively, significantly younger and with much more fresh arms than Jonathon Papelbon and Jose Contreras, 31 and 40, respectively.
"The other thing, which isn't mentioned as often, is the expansion of the playoffs to include a second wild card bodes well for the Nationals if they sign Fielder. They are putting together a young and formidable club, and even if they can't beat Philadelphia this year or next, more playoffs spots gives them a chance to go in as a young and hungry team with three very good starting pitchers. If Washington gets Fielder, there will be a price to be paid at some point as there is for all free agents, but they become really good really fast."
From an AL evaluator: "If the Nationals sign Prince it accelerates their time table. Fielder would give the Nats a quartet of mega-star caliber players in Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Zimmerman. Couple those anchors with Wilson Ramos, Espinosa, Werth and an above-average pitching staff, along with a burgeoning farm system to add pieces and depth to trade for needs. They are set up for a long, sustained run of excellence. Adding a Prince accelerates the process after the foundation has been grounded."
From an AL official: "Strasburg's future is more important [to the Nationals] than Prince Fielder. Good impact bat for them, but I can't see same numbers for him now that he's out of Milwaukee and NL Central. It's a different story playing in the NL East. Washington has a chance to be pretty good, but will need depth, and if they sign Fielder -- along with Werth's contract -- they are going to need to have a lot coming out of the organization's farm system. This might make it tough for them to keep guys like Zimmerman down the road."
Rumors are circulating about the Nationals and Fielder, writes Amanda Comak.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• There are doubts within the hierarchy of the Miami Marlins about whether Carlos Zambrano has enough zip to ever be a frontline pitcher again, because his fastball velocity has dropped into the 89-90 mph range. Last year, he had No. 5 starter stuff to go along with the temperament that essentially got him launched out of Chicago.
But for almost no risk -- for $2.5 million, according to Juan Rodriguez -- the Marlins figure that, at the very least, he could be an innings-eater in a year in which he's pitching for his next contract and has every reason to hold it together. Volstad had exhausted his opportunities with the Miami organization, and unless he had a major turnaround for them in 2012, he was going to be a non-tender candidate anyway.
The Marlins now have a rotation of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco and Zambrano, as Clark Spencer writes.
For the Chicago Cubs, their Zambrano ordeal is over, writes Dave van Dyck. This is a win for the Cubs, writes Phil Rogers.
Not to place blame at the feet of anyone in particular, but it is incredible how little the Cubs have gotten in return for the most expensive signings in the history of their franchise -- Zambrano, Milton Bradley, Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano, who have cost the franchise something in the range of $300 million.
• The Cubs have talked with other teams about Matt Garza, and so far, the gap between what Chicago wants and what other teams are offering has been sizable, probably for a couple of reasons:
No. 1: The trade return for players within a couple of years of free agency has been plummeting, and Garza is on target to hit the market in the fall of 2013.
No. 2: Many talent evaluators view Garza as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, rather than a No. 1 or No. 2. It might behoove the Cubs to keep Garza in the hope that he pitches well, so they can better market him in the weeks leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.
• The Atlanta Braves have a similar situation with Jair Jurrjens that the Cubs do with Garza -- so far, the Braves haven't been able to get what they believe is an equal offer for a good young pitcher. Jurrjens is eligible for free agency after the 2014 season, he'll turn 26 later this month, and he had an excellent first half of the 2011 season. But rival evaluators are concerned about his injury history, and opposing teams haven't been offering what the Braves want -- a young outfielder who can help the Atlanta lineup right away.
• The Rays continue to look for a first baseman and a designated hitter at a time when the market has Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman and others. One option among many is the Mets' Daniel Murphy -- and on paper, the Rays and Mets would seem to have a possible fit, because New York is looking for young starting pitching, and Murphy is an excellent hitter who doesn't strike out a lot. Given the nature of the Rays' offense -- which relies on on-base percentage and speed -- Murphy's ability to put the ball in play could be viewed by Tampa Bay as a significant asset.
Coco Crisp turned down an offer from the Rays.
• The Hall of Fame voting has created all kinds of logic challenges for the voters, particularly those who believe that any link to performance-enhancing drugs -- either through admission or documentation or mere suspicion -- should eliminate a candidate.
For them, here's an interesting question: If Ryan Braun is suspended for his positive drug test, will writers never again consider Braun for any award during his playing career? In other words, if he's suspended 50 games this year, then passes all subsequent tests and hits 60 homers in 2015, would they leave him off their MVP ballot because of what transpired in 2011-12?
Because that's essentially what a lot of voters are doing with the Hall of Fame candidates. One link -- even a suspected link -- is enough to earn a lifetime ban in the eyes of those voters.
• Joe Torre resigned from his job with Major League Baseball to be part of a group that includes developer Rick Caruso.
Torre's group doesn't necessarily have an inside edge, so he is leaving his MLB position without knowing if he actually will wind up as part of the Dodgers' hierarchy. The expectation is that the next owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers will be the group that offers the most money -- pure and simple, almost no politics attached -- and you wonder whether the competition could drive this bidding closer to $1.5 billion. These are serious folks involved with serious money, and they wouldn't get into the process without being committed.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Detroit Tigers signed Eric Patterson.
2. The Tigers don't have Jacob Turner on the trading block, writes Lynn Henning. To be clear: It was never written here that Turner was on the trading block -- only that the Tigers were willing to trade him for the right pitcher, and presumably that list would be very small, because Turner is so highly regarded.
3. The St. Louis Cardinals hired a scouting director.
4. Dealing Seth Smith would help the Colorado Rockies pay for pitching, and he has drawn interest from the Oakland Athletics.
5. The Cincinnati Reds and Francisco Cordero seemed destined to work something out.
6. Bobby Jenks just became a giant question mark for the Boston Red Sox.
7. The Pittsburgh Pirates signed Logan Kensing.
8. Not surprisingly, the New York Yankees aren't going to sign a shortstop from Japan; there just wasn't enough playing time in it for him.
9. The Arizona Diamondbacks are not motivated to trade Gerardo Parra, writes Nick Piecoro.
10. Mark Trumbo's injury still hasn't healed, writes Mark DiGiovanna. Not good.
11. The Texas Rangers are focusing on a one-year deal with Mike Napoli, for now, as Evan Grant writes.
12. The Milwaukee Brewers are going to check out an outfielder from Japan this weekend.
13. Fernando Rodney apologized to the Tampa Bay media, 2½ years after the fact.
14. Francisco Liriano is going to pitch in winter ball after all.
MLB's invisible salary floor line.
Spoiler [+]
There is no hard salary floor established in the labor agreement, no specific minimum dollar amount that teams are required to spend. But there is an understanding between Major League Baseball and the players' association that the 30 teams will at least participate in the process and won't consistently work to field a bunch of minimum-wage players.
The Oakland Athletics signed Coco Crisp for $14 million during the next two seasons, and that may help the Athletics avoid getting slapped on the wrist by MLB and the union, which rendered that punishment a few years ago to the Florida Marlins.
The Athletics' strategy this winter is transparent: Because the team doesn't believe it can compete with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, given the current circumstances, Oakland decided to invest its assets to fight another day. Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey were swapped for prospects who may blossom in 2015 or 2016, by which time the Athletics hope to inhabit a new ballpark in San Jose.
The Athletics opened 2011 with a payroll of about $67 million, but through the free-agent departures of players like Josh Willingham and the trades of players like Mark Ellis, Oakland has dramatically slashed its payroll.
Kurt Suzuki earns $5 million this season, as part of his deal that runs through 2013, and Brett Anderson will make $3 million this year. Brian Fuentes is set to make $5 million in the upcoming season, Grant Balfour will earn $4 million, Daric Barton will make $1.1 million, Adam Rosales will make $600,000 and Dallas Braden negotiated a $3.35 million deal. That's about $22 million in payroll obligations to go along with the cost of Oakland's arbitration-eligible players like Brandon McCarthy.
With the signing of Crisp, Oakland will have at least $30 million in payroll obligations, and with other moves, the Athletics figure to move closer to $40 million -- which, some executives believe, is the unofficial budget floor that MLB and the union would like to see from its teams.
Billy Beane isn't to blame for the sad state of the Athletics, writes Bruce Jenkins. Within this piece, he writes Oakland's payroll will be around $55 million. Other Oakland players are glad to have Crisp back, as Susan Slusser writes.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Washington Nationals have met with Prince Fielder's agent, Scott Boras, writes Bill Ladson.
The Seattle Mariners are in a holding pattern as they wait for Fielder to make his decision, writes Geoff Baker.
• The Houston Astros feel like they made a ground-breaking hire: a director of decision sciences.
• Earlier in this offseason, some executives say, the perceived asking price for Edwin Jackson was in the range of the John Lackey and A.J. Burnett deals -- in the $80 million range. This has since come down, they say.
Running to catch an early flight this morning, so we'll hit the links.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Los Angeles Dodgers' bid deadline has been backed up.
2. The Minnesota Twins have invited a whole lot of folks to spring training.
3. Carlos Silva is among those going to spring training with the Boston Red Sox.
4. Dan Connelly examines the Baltimore Orioles' dilemma with marketing Adam Jones.
Here's the bottom line: Unless his OPS and offensive production changes dramatically, Jones' value in the trade market will go down markedly every year before he becomes eligible for free agency. He is a respected talent, but rival scouts do have questions about his approach at the plate. If he were to have a breakout year in 2012, the Orioles could get the impact-type of pitcher for him that they seek.
Jones: OBP/BB/K
2009: .335/36/93
2010: .325/23/119
2011: .319/29/113
5. A young Colorado Rockies infielder is eager for his shot at the second-base job, writes Troy Renck.
6. The New York Yankees are setting their sights on the free-agent class of next fall, writes Tyler Kepner.
They're hanging onto the resources until they can go after the right pitcher -- a strategy that worked in the year they landed CC Sabathia, and one that didn't pay off in the year that Cliff Lee went into free agency.
7. Money matters to the Red Sox, reports the Associated Press.
8. The Philadelphia Phillies are content with what they have, writes Jim Salisbury.
9. The New York Mets signed a shortstop with a PED past, writes Andy Martino.
10. The Miami Marlins re-signed Greg Dobbs.
11. Yu Darvish is on a tour of Texas; no deal has been reached. It'd be a shocker if he fails to sign.
12. The Tampa Bay Rays are close to a deal with Fernando Rodney.
The Oakland Athletics signed Coco Crisp for $14 million during the next two seasons, and that may help the Athletics avoid getting slapped on the wrist by MLB and the union, which rendered that punishment a few years ago to the Florida Marlins.
The Athletics' strategy this winter is transparent: Because the team doesn't believe it can compete with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, given the current circumstances, Oakland decided to invest its assets to fight another day. Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey were swapped for prospects who may blossom in 2015 or 2016, by which time the Athletics hope to inhabit a new ballpark in San Jose.
The Athletics opened 2011 with a payroll of about $67 million, but through the free-agent departures of players like Josh Willingham and the trades of players like Mark Ellis, Oakland has dramatically slashed its payroll.
Kurt Suzuki earns $5 million this season, as part of his deal that runs through 2013, and Brett Anderson will make $3 million this year. Brian Fuentes is set to make $5 million in the upcoming season, Grant Balfour will earn $4 million, Daric Barton will make $1.1 million, Adam Rosales will make $600,000 and Dallas Braden negotiated a $3.35 million deal. That's about $22 million in payroll obligations to go along with the cost of Oakland's arbitration-eligible players like Brandon McCarthy.
With the signing of Crisp, Oakland will have at least $30 million in payroll obligations, and with other moves, the Athletics figure to move closer to $40 million -- which, some executives believe, is the unofficial budget floor that MLB and the union would like to see from its teams.
Billy Beane isn't to blame for the sad state of the Athletics, writes Bruce Jenkins. Within this piece, he writes Oakland's payroll will be around $55 million. Other Oakland players are glad to have Crisp back, as Susan Slusser writes.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Washington Nationals have met with Prince Fielder's agent, Scott Boras, writes Bill Ladson.
The Seattle Mariners are in a holding pattern as they wait for Fielder to make his decision, writes Geoff Baker.
• The Houston Astros feel like they made a ground-breaking hire: a director of decision sciences.
• Earlier in this offseason, some executives say, the perceived asking price for Edwin Jackson was in the range of the John Lackey and A.J. Burnett deals -- in the $80 million range. This has since come down, they say.
Running to catch an early flight this morning, so we'll hit the links.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Los Angeles Dodgers' bid deadline has been backed up.
2. The Minnesota Twins have invited a whole lot of folks to spring training.
3. Carlos Silva is among those going to spring training with the Boston Red Sox.
4. Dan Connelly examines the Baltimore Orioles' dilemma with marketing Adam Jones.
Here's the bottom line: Unless his OPS and offensive production changes dramatically, Jones' value in the trade market will go down markedly every year before he becomes eligible for free agency. He is a respected talent, but rival scouts do have questions about his approach at the plate. If he were to have a breakout year in 2012, the Orioles could get the impact-type of pitcher for him that they seek.
Jones: OBP/BB/K
2009: .335/36/93
2010: .325/23/119
2011: .319/29/113
5. A young Colorado Rockies infielder is eager for his shot at the second-base job, writes Troy Renck.
6. The New York Yankees are setting their sights on the free-agent class of next fall, writes Tyler Kepner.
They're hanging onto the resources until they can go after the right pitcher -- a strategy that worked in the year they landed CC Sabathia, and one that didn't pay off in the year that Cliff Lee went into free agency.
7. Money matters to the Red Sox, reports the Associated Press.
8. The Philadelphia Phillies are content with what they have, writes Jim Salisbury.
9. The New York Mets signed a shortstop with a PED past, writes Andy Martino.
10. The Miami Marlins re-signed Greg Dobbs.
11. Yu Darvish is on a tour of Texas; no deal has been reached. It'd be a shocker if he fails to sign.
12. The Tampa Bay Rays are close to a deal with Fernando Rodney.
Top 10 MLB storylines for 2012.
Spoiler [+]
We have already ranked the top 10 teams, lineups, infields, outfields, bullpens and rotations heading into the 2012 season.
As we wait for Prince Fielder to make his decision, here are the top 10 stories for 2012:
1. The attempted rebranding of the Miami Marlins
They are baseball's great gamblers, having bet heavily on a complete overhaul of the organization: A new ballpark, a new color scheme, new uniforms, a new manager, a new shortstop in Jose Reyes, a new rotation leader in Mark Buehrle, and a new closer in Heath Bell. Some baseball executives fret over the strategy, but it's worked for other teams, such as the San Francisco Giants. If the Marlins rush to the top of the standings next season and immediately establish a new era, this has a chance to be an extraordinary success. If the Marlins flame out early and fans don't show up, epitaphs for the franchise will be written.
A Marlins official maintained at the winter meetings that Hanley Ramirez was all warm and fuzzy about moving to third base. But maybe he's getting the memo today that a month later, Ramirez has decided he's OK with the switch. Ramirez also said there is no problem between him and Reyes. There is a new Hanley, Ramirez says.
2. Albert Pujols has left the building
A year ago, Pujols and Derek Jeter seemed like the two superstars most likely to play their entire careers with one team. But now Pujols has left the St. Louis Cardinals for the Los Angeles Angels, for whom he will stoke baseball's best new rivalry.
The Angels have a great rotation, some dynamic young outfielders and now Pujols, and the Texas Rangers have arguably the best depth of any organization in the majors.
3. Rangers try to push the rock back up the hill, again
Texas came within one strike of winning the World Series, twice, and instead the Rangers had their guts ripped out in October for the second straight year. Right after their Game 7 loss to St. Louis, the Texas players held a brief meeting to talk about setting goals for 2012 -- but the attempt at yet another climb back to the World Series will undoubtedly be excruciating at times.
They'll have to answer a whole lot of questions with references to the Buffalo Bills, and the Angels should be improved with the additions of Pujols and C.J. Wilson. The wide expectation around the sport is that the Rangers eventually will work out a deal with Yu Darvish, along the same lines of the deal that Daisuke Matsuzaka got with the Boston Red Sox.
4. Bobby Valentine rides to the rescue (or at least that's what the blueprint says)
The Red Sox are coming off the greatest collapse in history, and ownership reacted strongly by dumping Terry Francona, allowing Theo Epstein to walk out the door, and then hiring Valentine. New general manager Ben Cherington has shuffled the bullpen and the back end of the rotation.
Now the question is: How will the players react? Will Josh Beckett and Jon Lester rebound after their September struggles? Will Carl Crawford bounce back?
And here's another one: How will Boston react? If the team struggles early, how much patience will the Fenway faithful have?
5. Will our nation's capital become baseball's capital?
The Washington Nationals are widely regarded as a team on the rise with the most renowned young pitcher in Stephen Strasburg and the most heralded position prospect in Bryce Harper, who figures to make a very loud major league debut sometime in 2012.
If Washington were to get Fielder, the Nationals may well vault into the ranks of baseball's powers.
Wrote here last week that the Nationals are considered by some to be the presumptive landing spot for Fielder. Adam Kilgore has more, and so does Tom Haudricourt.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers fans, rejoice
The ownership of Frank McCourt is likely in its final days, barring some unforeseen events, and a new sheriff will be riding into town -- and the impact figures to be immediate.
The Dodgers' real payroll (dollars spent on the 2012 team and not the salary deferrals) is actually about $90 million for the upcoming season, which means that the next owner will likely come and have a lot of room to increase the budget -- for someone like Southern California's own Cole Hamels, who will be the most coveted free agent next fall if he stays healthy through the upcoming season.
7. The fate of the Oakland Athletics
By trading the likes of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey, the Athletics are clearly positioning their roster for a possible launch in 2015 or 2016 -- or about the same time they hope to be in a new ballpark in San Jose. If the commissioner does announce a move from Oakland to San Jose, it may well set off a legal response from the San Francisco Giants, who claim territorial rights.
If the commissioner doesn't announce the move of the Athletics, there figures to be some tangible shift in the team's ownership, with the Athletics perhaps becoming a new version of the Montreal Expos -- property of Major League Baseball.
8. What will the Cincinnati Reds do with Joey Votto?
The Reds have fended off all trade inquiries about their All-Star first baseman, with Walt Jocketty stating flatly that the team is trying to win and keeping the club's best player -- and Votto is arguably among the sport's two or three best players -- is part of that strategy. But other clubs continue to circle the Reds like sharks, believing that eventually the financial reality that Cincinnati will struggle to keep Votto may manifest itself; Votto is in line to earn $25 million a year, or more, with his next contract, which would represent about 30 percent of Cincinnati's budget.
If the Reds contend this summer, of course, there is no chance he would be traded during the season.
9. Milestones
If healthy, Alex Rodriguez will be climbing past a lot of legends this summer. He needs one homer to tie Ken Griffey Jr. at 630 for his career, and with 31 homers, Rodriguez would tie Willie Mays. A-Rod needs 76 runs for 1,900 in his career, which would place him 10th all time, right behind Stan Musial and just ahead of Lou Gehrig. With 60 RBIs, Rodriguez will move into sixth place all time.
Paul Konerko needs four homers for 400 in his career. With 155 hits, Derek Jeter would climb from 20th all time in career hits to 13th, passing Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn and his childhood favorite, Dave Winfield.
10. The dreaded Hall of Fame candidates of 2013 will be submitted for history's approval
Barry Bonds will appear on the ballot, and so will Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and others suspected of steroid use. Let the never-ending debate rage over this question: Do they belong in the Hall of Fame?
And a bonus selection: Ryan Braun's appeal. No major league player has ever successfully challenged a positive test, so the decision will be historic, either way. Braun will either become the first reigning MVP to be suspended -- for 50 games, under the current rules -- or he will create a precedent for future testing.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Baltimore Orioles are talking to Coco Crisp and discussing an Adam Jones trade with the Atlanta Braves. Crisp is ready to choose, writes Susan Slusser.
2. The Red Sox are looking for bargains for their rotation, writes Peter Abraham. The New York Yankees are in the same mode: They'd like a starter but only at the right (read: inexpensive) price.
3. Boston has eight arbitration cases coming up, including Jacoby Ellsbury.
4. The Toronto Blue Jays picked up Jason Frasor.
5. The San Diego Padres could be looking at some contract extensions, writes Bill Center.
As we wait for Prince Fielder to make his decision, here are the top 10 stories for 2012:
1. The attempted rebranding of the Miami Marlins
They are baseball's great gamblers, having bet heavily on a complete overhaul of the organization: A new ballpark, a new color scheme, new uniforms, a new manager, a new shortstop in Jose Reyes, a new rotation leader in Mark Buehrle, and a new closer in Heath Bell. Some baseball executives fret over the strategy, but it's worked for other teams, such as the San Francisco Giants. If the Marlins rush to the top of the standings next season and immediately establish a new era, this has a chance to be an extraordinary success. If the Marlins flame out early and fans don't show up, epitaphs for the franchise will be written.
A Marlins official maintained at the winter meetings that Hanley Ramirez was all warm and fuzzy about moving to third base. But maybe he's getting the memo today that a month later, Ramirez has decided he's OK with the switch. Ramirez also said there is no problem between him and Reyes. There is a new Hanley, Ramirez says.
2. Albert Pujols has left the building
A year ago, Pujols and Derek Jeter seemed like the two superstars most likely to play their entire careers with one team. But now Pujols has left the St. Louis Cardinals for the Los Angeles Angels, for whom he will stoke baseball's best new rivalry.
The Angels have a great rotation, some dynamic young outfielders and now Pujols, and the Texas Rangers have arguably the best depth of any organization in the majors.
3. Rangers try to push the rock back up the hill, again
Texas came within one strike of winning the World Series, twice, and instead the Rangers had their guts ripped out in October for the second straight year. Right after their Game 7 loss to St. Louis, the Texas players held a brief meeting to talk about setting goals for 2012 -- but the attempt at yet another climb back to the World Series will undoubtedly be excruciating at times.
They'll have to answer a whole lot of questions with references to the Buffalo Bills, and the Angels should be improved with the additions of Pujols and C.J. Wilson. The wide expectation around the sport is that the Rangers eventually will work out a deal with Yu Darvish, along the same lines of the deal that Daisuke Matsuzaka got with the Boston Red Sox.
4. Bobby Valentine rides to the rescue (or at least that's what the blueprint says)
The Red Sox are coming off the greatest collapse in history, and ownership reacted strongly by dumping Terry Francona, allowing Theo Epstein to walk out the door, and then hiring Valentine. New general manager Ben Cherington has shuffled the bullpen and the back end of the rotation.
Now the question is: How will the players react? Will Josh Beckett and Jon Lester rebound after their September struggles? Will Carl Crawford bounce back?
And here's another one: How will Boston react? If the team struggles early, how much patience will the Fenway faithful have?
5. Will our nation's capital become baseball's capital?
The Washington Nationals are widely regarded as a team on the rise with the most renowned young pitcher in Stephen Strasburg and the most heralded position prospect in Bryce Harper, who figures to make a very loud major league debut sometime in 2012.
If Washington were to get Fielder, the Nationals may well vault into the ranks of baseball's powers.
Wrote here last week that the Nationals are considered by some to be the presumptive landing spot for Fielder. Adam Kilgore has more, and so does Tom Haudricourt.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers fans, rejoice
The ownership of Frank McCourt is likely in its final days, barring some unforeseen events, and a new sheriff will be riding into town -- and the impact figures to be immediate.
The Dodgers' real payroll (dollars spent on the 2012 team and not the salary deferrals) is actually about $90 million for the upcoming season, which means that the next owner will likely come and have a lot of room to increase the budget -- for someone like Southern California's own Cole Hamels, who will be the most coveted free agent next fall if he stays healthy through the upcoming season.
7. The fate of the Oakland Athletics
By trading the likes of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey, the Athletics are clearly positioning their roster for a possible launch in 2015 or 2016 -- or about the same time they hope to be in a new ballpark in San Jose. If the commissioner does announce a move from Oakland to San Jose, it may well set off a legal response from the San Francisco Giants, who claim territorial rights.
If the commissioner doesn't announce the move of the Athletics, there figures to be some tangible shift in the team's ownership, with the Athletics perhaps becoming a new version of the Montreal Expos -- property of Major League Baseball.
8. What will the Cincinnati Reds do with Joey Votto?
The Reds have fended off all trade inquiries about their All-Star first baseman, with Walt Jocketty stating flatly that the team is trying to win and keeping the club's best player -- and Votto is arguably among the sport's two or three best players -- is part of that strategy. But other clubs continue to circle the Reds like sharks, believing that eventually the financial reality that Cincinnati will struggle to keep Votto may manifest itself; Votto is in line to earn $25 million a year, or more, with his next contract, which would represent about 30 percent of Cincinnati's budget.
If the Reds contend this summer, of course, there is no chance he would be traded during the season.
9. Milestones
If healthy, Alex Rodriguez will be climbing past a lot of legends this summer. He needs one homer to tie Ken Griffey Jr. at 630 for his career, and with 31 homers, Rodriguez would tie Willie Mays. A-Rod needs 76 runs for 1,900 in his career, which would place him 10th all time, right behind Stan Musial and just ahead of Lou Gehrig. With 60 RBIs, Rodriguez will move into sixth place all time.
Paul Konerko needs four homers for 400 in his career. With 155 hits, Derek Jeter would climb from 20th all time in career hits to 13th, passing Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn and his childhood favorite, Dave Winfield.
10. The dreaded Hall of Fame candidates of 2013 will be submitted for history's approval
Barry Bonds will appear on the ballot, and so will Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and others suspected of steroid use. Let the never-ending debate rage over this question: Do they belong in the Hall of Fame?
And a bonus selection: Ryan Braun's appeal. No major league player has ever successfully challenged a positive test, so the decision will be historic, either way. Braun will either become the first reigning MVP to be suspended -- for 50 games, under the current rules -- or he will create a precedent for future testing.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Baltimore Orioles are talking to Coco Crisp and discussing an Adam Jones trade with the Atlanta Braves. Crisp is ready to choose, writes Susan Slusser.
2. The Red Sox are looking for bargains for their rotation, writes Peter Abraham. The New York Yankees are in the same mode: They'd like a starter but only at the right (read: inexpensive) price.
3. Boston has eight arbitration cases coming up, including Jacoby Ellsbury.
4. The Toronto Blue Jays picked up Jason Frasor.
5. The San Diego Padres could be looking at some contract extensions, writes Bill Center.
How much of Zambrano is left for Miami?
Volstad heads to Chicago.
Eternal returns: Coco Crisp and Athletic rebuilding.
Spoiler [+]
The dream NotGraphs roster has officially been assembled. On top of Logan Morrison and Ozzie Guillen together in the same clubhouse and on the same Twitter, Miami will now house the other noted Chicago fireball, Carlos Zambrano. The Cubs ate $15 million of Zambrano’s $18 million salary for the privilege to ship him down to Florida in exchange for former top prospect and current disappointment Chris Volstad.
With Miami building a contender this offseason through the acquisitions of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle but still ostensibly looking up at Philadelphia and Atlanta for the NL East, the addition of Zambrano on the cheap could be what pushes the Marlins into the playoffs — that is, if he has anything left in the tank.
We often hear the narrative of a player quitting on his team. Rarely do we ever see it actually happen, but Carlos Zambrano literally quit on the Cubs, packing up his locker and leaving after a rough start on August 12th. That particular last-straw start saw Zambrano yield a whopping five home runs, an especially uncharacteristic game for a player like Zambrano who so specialized in keeping the ball in the ballpark. From 2002 through 2010 — his official rookie season onward — Zambrano had never allowed more than 1.0 HR/9 until 2011, and specifically never until that final start. Without those 4.1 innings and five home runs, Zambrano allowed 14 home runs in 141.1 innings, or 0.89 per nine innings.
Although Zambrano has been something of a poster boy for why the Cubs franchise has failed over the past few years, he hasn’t been a failure on the level of a Barry Zito (bad) or Mike Hampton (constantly injured). He simply hasn’t been good enough to justify the massive five-year, $91.5 million contract extension he received in 2008, and honestly, very few pitchers have been worth the roughly 4.5 WAR per season the contract called for. Until 2011, Zambrano’s performance was still good enough to make him a top-half-of-the-rotation starter for most teams. From 2008 through 2010 Zambrano was good for at least 2.0 WAR per season and consistently outperformed his peripherals, keeping his ERA below 4.00 (ERA- below 90) in every season despite K/BB ratios under 2.0 and ground ball rates in the mid-40s.
It’s possible these mediocre peripherals or aging or his well-documented volatile mentality finally got to Zambrano in 2011, his age-30 season. Maybe he can’t do whatever it is that has allowed him to induce such weak contact over the course of his career any more. But the upside here is tremendous. Any sort of rediscovery of his previous talents could give the Marlins yet another above-average pitcher to go with Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Mark Buehrle and Ricky Nolasco. It’s no Four Aces and a Blanton (or Worley), but it’s a very competitive, very good starting rotation.
Of course, Zambrano is no guarantee. As much as the opportunity to play with Ozzie Guillen may excite him, the intense environment could lead to another meltdown for Big Z, or he simply may not rediscover what made him so good in his 20s. Still, at a mere $3 million and at the cost of a struggling young pitcher in Chris Volstad who may not yet be ready to contribute to a winning team, the logistics make sense for Florida. This is the kind of risk teams who are close to the playoffs need to make, and if it pays off we could very well see some October baseball in Jeffrey Loria’s fancy new digs.
With Miami building a contender this offseason through the acquisitions of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle but still ostensibly looking up at Philadelphia and Atlanta for the NL East, the addition of Zambrano on the cheap could be what pushes the Marlins into the playoffs — that is, if he has anything left in the tank.
We often hear the narrative of a player quitting on his team. Rarely do we ever see it actually happen, but Carlos Zambrano literally quit on the Cubs, packing up his locker and leaving after a rough start on August 12th. That particular last-straw start saw Zambrano yield a whopping five home runs, an especially uncharacteristic game for a player like Zambrano who so specialized in keeping the ball in the ballpark. From 2002 through 2010 — his official rookie season onward — Zambrano had never allowed more than 1.0 HR/9 until 2011, and specifically never until that final start. Without those 4.1 innings and five home runs, Zambrano allowed 14 home runs in 141.1 innings, or 0.89 per nine innings.
Although Zambrano has been something of a poster boy for why the Cubs franchise has failed over the past few years, he hasn’t been a failure on the level of a Barry Zito (bad) or Mike Hampton (constantly injured). He simply hasn’t been good enough to justify the massive five-year, $91.5 million contract extension he received in 2008, and honestly, very few pitchers have been worth the roughly 4.5 WAR per season the contract called for. Until 2011, Zambrano’s performance was still good enough to make him a top-half-of-the-rotation starter for most teams. From 2008 through 2010 Zambrano was good for at least 2.0 WAR per season and consistently outperformed his peripherals, keeping his ERA below 4.00 (ERA- below 90) in every season despite K/BB ratios under 2.0 and ground ball rates in the mid-40s.
It’s possible these mediocre peripherals or aging or his well-documented volatile mentality finally got to Zambrano in 2011, his age-30 season. Maybe he can’t do whatever it is that has allowed him to induce such weak contact over the course of his career any more. But the upside here is tremendous. Any sort of rediscovery of his previous talents could give the Marlins yet another above-average pitcher to go with Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Mark Buehrle and Ricky Nolasco. It’s no Four Aces and a Blanton (or Worley), but it’s a very competitive, very good starting rotation.
Of course, Zambrano is no guarantee. As much as the opportunity to play with Ozzie Guillen may excite him, the intense environment could lead to another meltdown for Big Z, or he simply may not rediscover what made him so good in his 20s. Still, at a mere $3 million and at the cost of a struggling young pitcher in Chris Volstad who may not yet be ready to contribute to a winning team, the logistics make sense for Florida. This is the kind of risk teams who are close to the playoffs need to make, and if it pays off we could very well see some October baseball in Jeffrey Loria’s fancy new digs.
Volstad heads to Chicago.
Spoiler [+]
Let the Theo Epstein overhaul continue.
Matt Garza might have been the most popular name tossed around this off-season in Wrigleyville, but Carlos Zambrano was the first Chicago Cubs pitcher to be traded. After three injury riddled season — and a ton of headaches — the Cubs elected to deal the sole survivor of the Dusty Baker era to the Miami Marlins. In return, the Cubs get 25-year-old Chris Volstad. While Volstad hasn’t established himself as a top of the line pitcher in the majors, this deal might just work out in the Cubs’ favor.
Chicago had lots of reasons to deal Zambrano. While his frequent mound blowups and inability to control his emotions likely fed into the decision, Zambrano’s contract and his declining performance were more likely the main reasons behind the move.
Over the past two seasons, in fact, Zambrano has barely been better than Volstad.
*This isn’t entirely fair. If you include 2009, Zambrano out-WARs Volstad 6.8 to 3.4. Volstad was awful that season, however, and has improved since. Zambrano has been in decline since 2009, which is why I compared their past two seasons.
While Zambrano is better at preventing home runs and racking up strikeouts, he’s only thrown 275.1 innings in the past two seasons. Some of that is due to injuries, some is due to team-imposed suspensions and some is due to an ill-fated move to the bullpen during the 2010 season. Plus, he hasn’t shown the same durability he flashed earlier in his career — when he had five straight seasons of at least 200 innings pitched.
Volstad might not strike out many batters, but he limits walks much better than Zambrano. Volstad hasn’t been the most durable pitcher, either — but he’s still thrown 60-plus more innings than Zambrano during the past two seasons. Their ERAs might not show it, but Volstad has been nearly as good since 2010. Zambrano’s lead in FIP is a slim 4.17 to 4.33, and Volstad actually posted a superior xFIP (4.05) in that period.
Volstad’s ability to outperform his ERA points to a trend for Cubs pitchers this upcoming season. All five of the Cubs’ current starters — Volstad, Travis Wood, Randy Wells, Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza — posted stronger xFIPs when compared to their ERAs. Four out of the five — Wells being the outlier — posted a lower FIP, as well. Volstad’s acquisition marks the second pitcher Epstein has acquired this off-season with this statistical trait. Perhaps Epstein thinks Volstad’s peripherals are more indicative of his talent than his ERA suggests.
Zambrano — who is owed $19 million this season — will come cheap for the Marlins, as the Cubs are rumored to be paying a significant portion of his salary. At the same time, Volstad will be entering his first year of arbitration and won’t be due to receive a significant raise. He’ll also be under team control for two more seasons, while Zambrano is a free agent after 2012. The Cubs still will be paying Zambrano far more than Volstad next season, but that matters little to Epstein, who inherited Big Z’s bad contract.
All told, the Cubs and Marlins swapped fifth starters. Zambrano just hasn’t been all that good — or consistent –over the past couple of seasons. And he caused huge headaches for his coaching staff and the Cubs’ front office. Volstad might offer little upside, but he’s been nearly as good as Zambrano — minus the drama. At the very least, Epstein spends less money on Tylenol this season. At best, he also gets the better pitcher.
Matt Garza might have been the most popular name tossed around this off-season in Wrigleyville, but Carlos Zambrano was the first Chicago Cubs pitcher to be traded. After three injury riddled season — and a ton of headaches — the Cubs elected to deal the sole survivor of the Dusty Baker era to the Miami Marlins. In return, the Cubs get 25-year-old Chris Volstad. While Volstad hasn’t established himself as a top of the line pitcher in the majors, this deal might just work out in the Cubs’ favor.
Chicago had lots of reasons to deal Zambrano. While his frequent mound blowups and inability to control his emotions likely fed into the decision, Zambrano’s contract and his declining performance were more likely the main reasons behind the move.
Over the past two seasons, in fact, Zambrano has barely been better than Volstad.
*This isn’t entirely fair. If you include 2009, Zambrano out-WARs Volstad 6.8 to 3.4. Volstad was awful that season, however, and has improved since. Zambrano has been in decline since 2009, which is why I compared their past two seasons.
While Zambrano is better at preventing home runs and racking up strikeouts, he’s only thrown 275.1 innings in the past two seasons. Some of that is due to injuries, some is due to team-imposed suspensions and some is due to an ill-fated move to the bullpen during the 2010 season. Plus, he hasn’t shown the same durability he flashed earlier in his career — when he had five straight seasons of at least 200 innings pitched.
Volstad might not strike out many batters, but he limits walks much better than Zambrano. Volstad hasn’t been the most durable pitcher, either — but he’s still thrown 60-plus more innings than Zambrano during the past two seasons. Their ERAs might not show it, but Volstad has been nearly as good since 2010. Zambrano’s lead in FIP is a slim 4.17 to 4.33, and Volstad actually posted a superior xFIP (4.05) in that period.
Volstad’s ability to outperform his ERA points to a trend for Cubs pitchers this upcoming season. All five of the Cubs’ current starters — Volstad, Travis Wood, Randy Wells, Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza — posted stronger xFIPs when compared to their ERAs. Four out of the five — Wells being the outlier — posted a lower FIP, as well. Volstad’s acquisition marks the second pitcher Epstein has acquired this off-season with this statistical trait. Perhaps Epstein thinks Volstad’s peripherals are more indicative of his talent than his ERA suggests.
Zambrano — who is owed $19 million this season — will come cheap for the Marlins, as the Cubs are rumored to be paying a significant portion of his salary. At the same time, Volstad will be entering his first year of arbitration and won’t be due to receive a significant raise. He’ll also be under team control for two more seasons, while Zambrano is a free agent after 2012. The Cubs still will be paying Zambrano far more than Volstad next season, but that matters little to Epstein, who inherited Big Z’s bad contract.
All told, the Cubs and Marlins swapped fifth starters. Zambrano just hasn’t been all that good — or consistent –over the past couple of seasons. And he caused huge headaches for his coaching staff and the Cubs’ front office. Volstad might offer little upside, but he’s been nearly as good as Zambrano — minus the drama. At the very least, Epstein spends less money on Tylenol this season. At best, he also gets the better pitcher.
Eternal returns: Coco Crisp and Athletic rebuilding.
Spoiler [+]
Not everyone from the 2011 Oakland Athletics is leaving town. Last night Buster Olney reported that the As had re-signed their center fielder from previous two seasons, Coco Crisp, to a two-year deal guaranteeing the 32-year old $14 million dollars with an option for a third season. Some may doubt whether Crisp is really worth the money, particularly given his health record, but the more interesting question is what this means for the As seemingly-eternal rebuilding effort and future.
Some recent takes on Coco Crisp might leave you with the impression that the idea is that he has been generally unproductive the last few seasons due to mediocre hitting and poor health. Thus, it might be surprising to see that he has averaged over two Wins Above Replacement the last two seasons, which is about what an average major leaguer might be expected to produce. And Crisp has done that while averaging less than 100 games a season. Of course, that lack of playing time is what makes Crisp something of an enigma.
Crisp is generally thought of as a defense-first center fielder, but he has been better on offense in recent seasons than some seem to think. His three slash may not look that impressive the last couple of seasons, but it is important to keep in mind the recent decline in league offense and a Crisp’s very pitcher-friendly home park in 2010 and 2011. While Crisp excels on the bases (32 of 35 in 2010, 49 of 58 in 2011), it is not all of his offense, and he had a 127 wRC+ in 2010 and 100 wRC+ in 2011. Crisp’s career walk and strikeout numbers make him look like a bit of a hacker, but in some recent seasons (2009 and 2010) he has taken a few more walks while maintaining a good rate of contact, and has hit for a bit more power despite a home park that suppresses it.
Crisp has also been good for adding a few runs a season by doing a good job taking the extra base. Oliver projects him for a park-neutral.272/.329/.408 line (.322 wOBA) in 2012. That will come down a bit once the line is changed to reflect his home park, but that production is acceptable for even an average defensive center fielder. It is worth noting that the switch-hitting Crisp has hit right- (94 wRC+) and left-handed (97 wRC+) pitching almost equally well during his career.
Fielding is likely where Oakland sees much of Crisp’s value. The problem is that is also something that is hard to pin down, given that even the strongest defenders of current, publicly-available defensive metrics admit that they have a long way to go in terms of reliability. Moreover, in Crisp’s particular case his performance as measured by metrics seems to vary a fair bit from season-to-season and from park-to-park. The general take of most visual observers seems to match that of the metrics: Crisp has a lousy arm and good range. What that comes to in terms of runs saved makes a pretty big difference in his overall value.
If you think that Crisp is merely an average overall fielder at this point in his career, then with his projected hitting, base running, and positional adjustment, he is probably worth around 2.5 wins (understood as “between two and three wins
Some recent takes on Coco Crisp might leave you with the impression that the idea is that he has been generally unproductive the last few seasons due to mediocre hitting and poor health. Thus, it might be surprising to see that he has averaged over two Wins Above Replacement the last two seasons, which is about what an average major leaguer might be expected to produce. And Crisp has done that while averaging less than 100 games a season. Of course, that lack of playing time is what makes Crisp something of an enigma.
Crisp is generally thought of as a defense-first center fielder, but he has been better on offense in recent seasons than some seem to think. His three slash may not look that impressive the last couple of seasons, but it is important to keep in mind the recent decline in league offense and a Crisp’s very pitcher-friendly home park in 2010 and 2011. While Crisp excels on the bases (32 of 35 in 2010, 49 of 58 in 2011), it is not all of his offense, and he had a 127 wRC+ in 2010 and 100 wRC+ in 2011. Crisp’s career walk and strikeout numbers make him look like a bit of a hacker, but in some recent seasons (2009 and 2010) he has taken a few more walks while maintaining a good rate of contact, and has hit for a bit more power despite a home park that suppresses it.
Crisp has also been good for adding a few runs a season by doing a good job taking the extra base. Oliver projects him for a park-neutral.272/.329/.408 line (.322 wOBA) in 2012. That will come down a bit once the line is changed to reflect his home park, but that production is acceptable for even an average defensive center fielder. It is worth noting that the switch-hitting Crisp has hit right- (94 wRC+) and left-handed (97 wRC+) pitching almost equally well during his career.
Fielding is likely where Oakland sees much of Crisp’s value. The problem is that is also something that is hard to pin down, given that even the strongest defenders of current, publicly-available defensive metrics admit that they have a long way to go in terms of reliability. Moreover, in Crisp’s particular case his performance as measured by metrics seems to vary a fair bit from season-to-season and from park-to-park. The general take of most visual observers seems to match that of the metrics: Crisp has a lousy arm and good range. What that comes to in terms of runs saved makes a pretty big difference in his overall value.
If you think that Crisp is merely an average overall fielder at this point in his career, then with his projected hitting, base running, and positional adjustment, he is probably worth around 2.5 wins (understood as “between two and three wins
How much of Zambrano is left for Miami?
Volstad heads to Chicago.
Eternal returns: Coco Crisp and Athletic rebuilding.
Spoiler [+]
The dream NotGraphs roster has officially been assembled. On top of Logan Morrison and Ozzie Guillen together in the same clubhouse and on the same Twitter, Miami will now house the other noted Chicago fireball, Carlos Zambrano. The Cubs ate $15 million of Zambrano’s $18 million salary for the privilege to ship him down to Florida in exchange for former top prospect and current disappointment Chris Volstad.
With Miami building a contender this offseason through the acquisitions of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle but still ostensibly looking up at Philadelphia and Atlanta for the NL East, the addition of Zambrano on the cheap could be what pushes the Marlins into the playoffs — that is, if he has anything left in the tank.
We often hear the narrative of a player quitting on his team. Rarely do we ever see it actually happen, but Carlos Zambrano literally quit on the Cubs, packing up his locker and leaving after a rough start on August 12th. That particular last-straw start saw Zambrano yield a whopping five home runs, an especially uncharacteristic game for a player like Zambrano who so specialized in keeping the ball in the ballpark. From 2002 through 2010 — his official rookie season onward — Zambrano had never allowed more than 1.0 HR/9 until 2011, and specifically never until that final start. Without those 4.1 innings and five home runs, Zambrano allowed 14 home runs in 141.1 innings, or 0.89 per nine innings.
Although Zambrano has been something of a poster boy for why the Cubs franchise has failed over the past few years, he hasn’t been a failure on the level of a Barry Zito (bad) or Mike Hampton (constantly injured). He simply hasn’t been good enough to justify the massive five-year, $91.5 million contract extension he received in 2008, and honestly, very few pitchers have been worth the roughly 4.5 WAR per season the contract called for. Until 2011, Zambrano’s performance was still good enough to make him a top-half-of-the-rotation starter for most teams. From 2008 through 2010 Zambrano was good for at least 2.0 WAR per season and consistently outperformed his peripherals, keeping his ERA below 4.00 (ERA- below 90) in every season despite K/BB ratios under 2.0 and ground ball rates in the mid-40s.
It’s possible these mediocre peripherals or aging or his well-documented volatile mentality finally got to Zambrano in 2011, his age-30 season. Maybe he can’t do whatever it is that has allowed him to induce such weak contact over the course of his career any more. But the upside here is tremendous. Any sort of rediscovery of his previous talents could give the Marlins yet another above-average pitcher to go with Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Mark Buehrle and Ricky Nolasco. It’s no Four Aces and a Blanton (or Worley), but it’s a very competitive, very good starting rotation.
Of course, Zambrano is no guarantee. As much as the opportunity to play with Ozzie Guillen may excite him, the intense environment could lead to another meltdown for Big Z, or he simply may not rediscover what made him so good in his 20s. Still, at a mere $3 million and at the cost of a struggling young pitcher in Chris Volstad who may not yet be ready to contribute to a winning team, the logistics make sense for Florida. This is the kind of risk teams who are close to the playoffs need to make, and if it pays off we could very well see some October baseball in Jeffrey Loria’s fancy new digs.
With Miami building a contender this offseason through the acquisitions of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle but still ostensibly looking up at Philadelphia and Atlanta for the NL East, the addition of Zambrano on the cheap could be what pushes the Marlins into the playoffs — that is, if he has anything left in the tank.
We often hear the narrative of a player quitting on his team. Rarely do we ever see it actually happen, but Carlos Zambrano literally quit on the Cubs, packing up his locker and leaving after a rough start on August 12th. That particular last-straw start saw Zambrano yield a whopping five home runs, an especially uncharacteristic game for a player like Zambrano who so specialized in keeping the ball in the ballpark. From 2002 through 2010 — his official rookie season onward — Zambrano had never allowed more than 1.0 HR/9 until 2011, and specifically never until that final start. Without those 4.1 innings and five home runs, Zambrano allowed 14 home runs in 141.1 innings, or 0.89 per nine innings.
Although Zambrano has been something of a poster boy for why the Cubs franchise has failed over the past few years, he hasn’t been a failure on the level of a Barry Zito (bad) or Mike Hampton (constantly injured). He simply hasn’t been good enough to justify the massive five-year, $91.5 million contract extension he received in 2008, and honestly, very few pitchers have been worth the roughly 4.5 WAR per season the contract called for. Until 2011, Zambrano’s performance was still good enough to make him a top-half-of-the-rotation starter for most teams. From 2008 through 2010 Zambrano was good for at least 2.0 WAR per season and consistently outperformed his peripherals, keeping his ERA below 4.00 (ERA- below 90) in every season despite K/BB ratios under 2.0 and ground ball rates in the mid-40s.
It’s possible these mediocre peripherals or aging or his well-documented volatile mentality finally got to Zambrano in 2011, his age-30 season. Maybe he can’t do whatever it is that has allowed him to induce such weak contact over the course of his career any more. But the upside here is tremendous. Any sort of rediscovery of his previous talents could give the Marlins yet another above-average pitcher to go with Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Mark Buehrle and Ricky Nolasco. It’s no Four Aces and a Blanton (or Worley), but it’s a very competitive, very good starting rotation.
Of course, Zambrano is no guarantee. As much as the opportunity to play with Ozzie Guillen may excite him, the intense environment could lead to another meltdown for Big Z, or he simply may not rediscover what made him so good in his 20s. Still, at a mere $3 million and at the cost of a struggling young pitcher in Chris Volstad who may not yet be ready to contribute to a winning team, the logistics make sense for Florida. This is the kind of risk teams who are close to the playoffs need to make, and if it pays off we could very well see some October baseball in Jeffrey Loria’s fancy new digs.
Volstad heads to Chicago.
Spoiler [+]
Let the Theo Epstein overhaul continue.
Matt Garza might have been the most popular name tossed around this off-season in Wrigleyville, but Carlos Zambrano was the first Chicago Cubs pitcher to be traded. After three injury riddled season — and a ton of headaches — the Cubs elected to deal the sole survivor of the Dusty Baker era to the Miami Marlins. In return, the Cubs get 25-year-old Chris Volstad. While Volstad hasn’t established himself as a top of the line pitcher in the majors, this deal might just work out in the Cubs’ favor.
Chicago had lots of reasons to deal Zambrano. While his frequent mound blowups and inability to control his emotions likely fed into the decision, Zambrano’s contract and his declining performance were more likely the main reasons behind the move.
Over the past two seasons, in fact, Zambrano has barely been better than Volstad.
*This isn’t entirely fair. If you include 2009, Zambrano out-WARs Volstad 6.8 to 3.4. Volstad was awful that season, however, and has improved since. Zambrano has been in decline since 2009, which is why I compared their past two seasons.
While Zambrano is better at preventing home runs and racking up strikeouts, he’s only thrown 275.1 innings in the past two seasons. Some of that is due to injuries, some is due to team-imposed suspensions and some is due to an ill-fated move to the bullpen during the 2010 season. Plus, he hasn’t shown the same durability he flashed earlier in his career — when he had five straight seasons of at least 200 innings pitched.
Volstad might not strike out many batters, but he limits walks much better than Zambrano. Volstad hasn’t been the most durable pitcher, either — but he’s still thrown 60-plus more innings than Zambrano during the past two seasons. Their ERAs might not show it, but Volstad has been nearly as good since 2010. Zambrano’s lead in FIP is a slim 4.17 to 4.33, and Volstad actually posted a superior xFIP (4.05) in that period.
Volstad’s ability to outperform his ERA points to a trend for Cubs pitchers this upcoming season. All five of the Cubs’ current starters — Volstad, Travis Wood, Randy Wells, Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza — posted stronger xFIPs when compared to their ERAs. Four out of the five — Wells being the outlier — posted a lower FIP, as well. Volstad’s acquisition marks the second pitcher Epstein has acquired this off-season with this statistical trait. Perhaps Epstein thinks Volstad’s peripherals are more indicative of his talent than his ERA suggests.
Zambrano — who is owed $19 million this season — will come cheap for the Marlins, as the Cubs are rumored to be paying a significant portion of his salary. At the same time, Volstad will be entering his first year of arbitration and won’t be due to receive a significant raise. He’ll also be under team control for two more seasons, while Zambrano is a free agent after 2012. The Cubs still will be paying Zambrano far more than Volstad next season, but that matters little to Epstein, who inherited Big Z’s bad contract.
All told, the Cubs and Marlins swapped fifth starters. Zambrano just hasn’t been all that good — or consistent –over the past couple of seasons. And he caused huge headaches for his coaching staff and the Cubs’ front office. Volstad might offer little upside, but he’s been nearly as good as Zambrano — minus the drama. At the very least, Epstein spends less money on Tylenol this season. At best, he also gets the better pitcher.
Matt Garza might have been the most popular name tossed around this off-season in Wrigleyville, but Carlos Zambrano was the first Chicago Cubs pitcher to be traded. After three injury riddled season — and a ton of headaches — the Cubs elected to deal the sole survivor of the Dusty Baker era to the Miami Marlins. In return, the Cubs get 25-year-old Chris Volstad. While Volstad hasn’t established himself as a top of the line pitcher in the majors, this deal might just work out in the Cubs’ favor.
Chicago had lots of reasons to deal Zambrano. While his frequent mound blowups and inability to control his emotions likely fed into the decision, Zambrano’s contract and his declining performance were more likely the main reasons behind the move.
Over the past two seasons, in fact, Zambrano has barely been better than Volstad.
*This isn’t entirely fair. If you include 2009, Zambrano out-WARs Volstad 6.8 to 3.4. Volstad was awful that season, however, and has improved since. Zambrano has been in decline since 2009, which is why I compared their past two seasons.
While Zambrano is better at preventing home runs and racking up strikeouts, he’s only thrown 275.1 innings in the past two seasons. Some of that is due to injuries, some is due to team-imposed suspensions and some is due to an ill-fated move to the bullpen during the 2010 season. Plus, he hasn’t shown the same durability he flashed earlier in his career — when he had five straight seasons of at least 200 innings pitched.
Volstad might not strike out many batters, but he limits walks much better than Zambrano. Volstad hasn’t been the most durable pitcher, either — but he’s still thrown 60-plus more innings than Zambrano during the past two seasons. Their ERAs might not show it, but Volstad has been nearly as good since 2010. Zambrano’s lead in FIP is a slim 4.17 to 4.33, and Volstad actually posted a superior xFIP (4.05) in that period.
Volstad’s ability to outperform his ERA points to a trend for Cubs pitchers this upcoming season. All five of the Cubs’ current starters — Volstad, Travis Wood, Randy Wells, Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza — posted stronger xFIPs when compared to their ERAs. Four out of the five — Wells being the outlier — posted a lower FIP, as well. Volstad’s acquisition marks the second pitcher Epstein has acquired this off-season with this statistical trait. Perhaps Epstein thinks Volstad’s peripherals are more indicative of his talent than his ERA suggests.
Zambrano — who is owed $19 million this season — will come cheap for the Marlins, as the Cubs are rumored to be paying a significant portion of his salary. At the same time, Volstad will be entering his first year of arbitration and won’t be due to receive a significant raise. He’ll also be under team control for two more seasons, while Zambrano is a free agent after 2012. The Cubs still will be paying Zambrano far more than Volstad next season, but that matters little to Epstein, who inherited Big Z’s bad contract.
All told, the Cubs and Marlins swapped fifth starters. Zambrano just hasn’t been all that good — or consistent –over the past couple of seasons. And he caused huge headaches for his coaching staff and the Cubs’ front office. Volstad might offer little upside, but he’s been nearly as good as Zambrano — minus the drama. At the very least, Epstein spends less money on Tylenol this season. At best, he also gets the better pitcher.
Eternal returns: Coco Crisp and Athletic rebuilding.
Spoiler [+]
Not everyone from the 2011 Oakland Athletics is leaving town. Last night Buster Olney reported that the As had re-signed their center fielder from previous two seasons, Coco Crisp, to a two-year deal guaranteeing the 32-year old $14 million dollars with an option for a third season. Some may doubt whether Crisp is really worth the money, particularly given his health record, but the more interesting question is what this means for the As seemingly-eternal rebuilding effort and future.
Some recent takes on Coco Crisp might leave you with the impression that the idea is that he has been generally unproductive the last few seasons due to mediocre hitting and poor health. Thus, it might be surprising to see that he has averaged over two Wins Above Replacement the last two seasons, which is about what an average major leaguer might be expected to produce. And Crisp has done that while averaging less than 100 games a season. Of course, that lack of playing time is what makes Crisp something of an enigma.
Crisp is generally thought of as a defense-first center fielder, but he has been better on offense in recent seasons than some seem to think. His three slash may not look that impressive the last couple of seasons, but it is important to keep in mind the recent decline in league offense and a Crisp’s very pitcher-friendly home park in 2010 and 2011. While Crisp excels on the bases (32 of 35 in 2010, 49 of 58 in 2011), it is not all of his offense, and he had a 127 wRC+ in 2010 and 100 wRC+ in 2011. Crisp’s career walk and strikeout numbers make him look like a bit of a hacker, but in some recent seasons (2009 and 2010) he has taken a few more walks while maintaining a good rate of contact, and has hit for a bit more power despite a home park that suppresses it.
Crisp has also been good for adding a few runs a season by doing a good job taking the extra base. Oliver projects him for a park-neutral.272/.329/.408 line (.322 wOBA) in 2012. That will come down a bit once the line is changed to reflect his home park, but that production is acceptable for even an average defensive center fielder. It is worth noting that the switch-hitting Crisp has hit right- (94 wRC+) and left-handed (97 wRC+) pitching almost equally well during his career.
Fielding is likely where Oakland sees much of Crisp’s value. The problem is that is also something that is hard to pin down, given that even the strongest defenders of current, publicly-available defensive metrics admit that they have a long way to go in terms of reliability. Moreover, in Crisp’s particular case his performance as measured by metrics seems to vary a fair bit from season-to-season and from park-to-park. The general take of most visual observers seems to match that of the metrics: Crisp has a lousy arm and good range. What that comes to in terms of runs saved makes a pretty big difference in his overall value.
If you think that Crisp is merely an average overall fielder at this point in his career, then with his projected hitting, base running, and positional adjustment, he is probably worth around 2.5 wins (understood as “between two and three wins
Some recent takes on Coco Crisp might leave you with the impression that the idea is that he has been generally unproductive the last few seasons due to mediocre hitting and poor health. Thus, it might be surprising to see that he has averaged over two Wins Above Replacement the last two seasons, which is about what an average major leaguer might be expected to produce. And Crisp has done that while averaging less than 100 games a season. Of course, that lack of playing time is what makes Crisp something of an enigma.
Crisp is generally thought of as a defense-first center fielder, but he has been better on offense in recent seasons than some seem to think. His three slash may not look that impressive the last couple of seasons, but it is important to keep in mind the recent decline in league offense and a Crisp’s very pitcher-friendly home park in 2010 and 2011. While Crisp excels on the bases (32 of 35 in 2010, 49 of 58 in 2011), it is not all of his offense, and he had a 127 wRC+ in 2010 and 100 wRC+ in 2011. Crisp’s career walk and strikeout numbers make him look like a bit of a hacker, but in some recent seasons (2009 and 2010) he has taken a few more walks while maintaining a good rate of contact, and has hit for a bit more power despite a home park that suppresses it.
Crisp has also been good for adding a few runs a season by doing a good job taking the extra base. Oliver projects him for a park-neutral.272/.329/.408 line (.322 wOBA) in 2012. That will come down a bit once the line is changed to reflect his home park, but that production is acceptable for even an average defensive center fielder. It is worth noting that the switch-hitting Crisp has hit right- (94 wRC+) and left-handed (97 wRC+) pitching almost equally well during his career.
Fielding is likely where Oakland sees much of Crisp’s value. The problem is that is also something that is hard to pin down, given that even the strongest defenders of current, publicly-available defensive metrics admit that they have a long way to go in terms of reliability. Moreover, in Crisp’s particular case his performance as measured by metrics seems to vary a fair bit from season-to-season and from park-to-park. The general take of most visual observers seems to match that of the metrics: Crisp has a lousy arm and good range. What that comes to in terms of runs saved makes a pretty big difference in his overall value.
If you think that Crisp is merely an average overall fielder at this point in his career, then with his projected hitting, base running, and positional adjustment, he is probably worth around 2.5 wins (understood as “between two and three wins
- Dec 17, 2003
- 9,530
- 91
The Cards killer Zambrano is out of the Central, great news!
- Dec 17, 2003
- 9,530
- 91
The Cards killer Zambrano is out of the Central, great news!
- Aug 21, 2005
- 8,139
- 88
You can pencil Miami in for about 80 wins now
- Aug 21, 2005
- 8,139
- 88
You can pencil Miami in for about 80 wins now
- Jan 19, 2002
- 23,475
- 5,603
Originally Posted by wildKYcat
Zambrano and Ozzie
Is Miami taking his whole contract too? The Marlins are soon going to become all Latin, no white guys or blacks
- Jan 19, 2002
- 23,475
- 5,603
Originally Posted by wildKYcat
Zambrano and Ozzie
Is Miami taking his whole contract too? The Marlins are soon going to become all Latin, no white guys or blacks
- Status
