There's a method behind the Cubs' Tuesday madness
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The Cubs acquired Ben Zobrist and Adam Warren in separate moves Tuesday. USA TODAY Sports
Keith Law, ESPN Senior Writer
The Chicago Cubs upgraded their infield in a pair of moves Tuesday. They dumped Starlin Castro's once-promising contract on the Yankees and signed longtime super-sub Ben Zobrist to a four-year deal to play second base. It's a stunning fall from grace for Castro and a huge commitment to a 34-year-old hitter who is already showing signs of decline. It makes the Cubs better, but I'm not sure it's "better" enough to justify the money spent.
Castro has posted a sub-.300 OBP twice in the past three years and was (mercifully) moved off shortstop this summer. He then played second base for the first time in his career. His approach at the plate hasn't improved a whit since his rookie season and actually showed signs of getting even worse in 2015, which is unacceptable for a player 900 games into his big league career. This is just what Castro is, unfortunately, and he's not worth what he's being paid. The New York Yankees had a void at second base -- Robert Refsnyder, for all the hype he has received, just can't handle the position defensively -- so Castro will actually make them better, even if he's just a one-win player.
Starlin Castro showed promise in his early years, but he has been unable to eclipse 2.0 WAR since 2012. Jake Roth/USA TODAY Sports
I like Adam Warren for what he became in 2015: an old-fashioned swingman, with 17 starts and 25 relief appearances for 131 total innings of a 3.29 ERA and much better numbers in the bullpen than in the rotation. The Cubs don't need a starter, but every team needs an Adam Warren to handle spot starts and provide value in long relief. The Cubs could go with two such swingmen with Warren and Travis Wood or swap one of them to fill a different need. But with the rising trend of pulling starters after three times through the order, having two long guys on the roster is a strength -- not a liability.
As for the Zobrist signing, he makes the Cubs a couple wins better in 2016, but that contract could look very ugly in year four. Zobrist will play his age 35 to 38 seasons under this deal, and he has already slipped defensively, according to advanced metrics. He's still a very disciplined hitter whom pitchers can't beat in the zone, so he should maintain his OBP skills for much of the contract, but by ages 37 and 38, he'll likely have dropped off there as well. In fact, ESPN colleague Dan Szymborski's projections have Zobrist at OBPs in those years of .333 and .322, respectively -- he was at .359 in 2015 -- and overall, he rates as a below-average regular at 37 and bench player at best at 38. The Cubs have to hope Zobrist is so good the next two years that they're willing to live with what will probably be $14 million of dead money in 2019.
The move could work out in their favor, anyway. Few teams can look at a contract that way, but the Cubs are in the right position for it: contenders right now with a specific hole to fill. Zobrist makes them two to three wins better right now, and they get a little boost from Warren as well. It's conceivable Zobrist delivers enough production this year and next to justify the fourth year, because the Cubs are in the position that an extra win or two translates to revenue and maybe a lot of revenue because they could play in October. I don't love the deal, but I can at least see a path for the Cubs to end up on top.[\spoiler]
.. first move of the rebuilding process that I'm actually impressed with!
