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Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith Jr. and the mystery that surrounded the NBA draft's No. 1 pick
Around midnight the evening before the NBA draft, Orlando Magic president Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond walked together to their cars, talking about the event -- and decision -- that could change the course of their franchise. Less than 24 hours before the team's first No. 1 pick since 2004, the Magic's top two basketball executives weren't quite at peace.
That day, in meetings with their scouts and personnel specialists, the group had reached a tentative decision to go with Paolo Banchero, the powerful 19-year-old big man from Duke. Probably.
"If you told me Jeff would've walked into the office with a different decision in the morning," Hammond said, "I wouldn't have been shocked."
That next day, the Magic created a modern rarity: genuine surprise with the top pick on draft night. They selected Banchero after most of the league had for weeks believed they were leaning toward Jabari Smith Jr., a sweet-shooting, defensive-minded forward from Auburn.
The late reveal was a jolt to Smith, who had been preparing to join the Magic after a workout in Orlando in early June. And Banchero, who bypassed an offer to travel to Orlando for formal meetings because he wasn't sure the team was seriously considering him. And the Houston Rockets, who had prepared to pick Banchero with the third pick.
All the primary characters come together Thursday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN) as Banchero and the Magic face off against Smith and the Rockets at Las Vegas Summer League, hoping to shake off the awkwardness of the draft-night drama.
"We didn't know [Orlando was taking Banchero] until 10 minutes before the draft," Rockets general manager Rafael Stone said.
"I didn't hear from the Magic telling me for sure until a few minutes before," said Mike Miller, Banchero's agent and a 17-year NBA veteran.
And as Banchero said, "I didn't find out I was actually getting picked until about 20 seconds before the commissioner got on the stage."
The initial theory was that the Magic had run a misdirection on the rest of the league, and particularly Houston, by hiding their intentions. But multiple members of the Magic said it was merely the product of a grueling process to choose between top prospects that also included Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren.
Weltman, who has led Orlando's front office since 2017, is known for being both tight-lipped and fastidious. If there was a decision-maker in the league who could conduct such an operation, Weltman would be on the short list.
"There's a lot of strategy that goes into the draft," Weltman said. "There's a lot of secret-keeping; there's a lot of misdirection."
He and the Magic simply didn't dissuade anyone when mock drafts were formed and league intelligence percolated with the common belief that it would be Smith at No. 1, even if the team hadn't internally made the call.
"Orlando never committed to taking Jabari first," said Wallace Prather, Smith's agent. "Obviously, the internet and social media creates narratives and creates stories, and we all know it's a TV show. Orlando kept things close to the cuff."
When Weltman met with staff members shortly before the draft on June 23, he commended them for staying airtight as an organization, as their plans hadn't leaked.
"I think it's the best way to do business," Weltman said. "It's important people know information is managed discreetly with us."
Then there was the mystery of the sportsbooks. Many of the top casinos went from lowering Banchero's odds in the few days leading up to the draft to outright making him the favorite -- overnight.
While the Magic investigated -- the team came to the conclusion social media might've played a role -- the Rockets began to react.
"When [the odds] shifted, we noted it," Stone said. "If people are willing to put their money on it, especially when you see a big swing like that, it feels like maybe somebody knows something."
The Rockets reached out to Prather, a veteran agent who has a long history with the organization. Houston hadn't met with Smith before the draft, though they'd done extensive scouting and research on him. With the growing uncertainty of what the Magic might do, Prather gave the Rockets Smith's pre-draft medical reports.
This personal data, which includes previous injury history, is often closely held by players and agents. Secrecy sometimes is used as a tactic to guide players away from certain teams. It's also often not shared if an agent is confident the client will be off the board before that team picks, as was thought to be the case in this instance. The Rockets didn't have full medicals on Holmgren, either; he had only provided them to the Magic and the Oklahoma City Thunder, who had the No. 2 pick.
With the draft fast approaching, veteran agent Bill Duffy, who represents Holmgren, told the Rockets that if he got an indication the Magic and Thunder were passing on his client, he would give Holmgren's medical reports to Houston so it could prepare.
The Thunder's long-standing interest in Holmgren was known across the league, but in the hours leading up to the draft, there was apprehension that nothing might be what it seemed.
As speculation ebbed and flowed, the Magic stayed mum. Miller, Banchero's agent, saw the swinging sportsbook odds and communicated with Orlando throughout the day, naturally wanting to vet the situation. The Magic divulged nothing.
"When you're playing poker," Weltman said, "you don't put your cards on the table."
The Rockets and Thunder deepened their information gathering.
Hours passed. Once the Rockets were convinced Orlando was going with Banchero, Houston reached out to the Magic to make a trade offer to get up to the top pick, sources said.
The Rockets wouldn't have made an offer if they were certain Smith would slide to them, sources said, but they were concerned about having to make a decision on Holmgren without time to digest his medical information.
Teams drafting near each other routinely carry out due diligence, feeling out pick availability and values. Perhaps the Magic, the thinking went, were running a smoke screen -- an effort to force last-minute trade offers only to move back and take the player they had allegedly been leaning toward all along is a game as old as the draft itself.
In 2017, the Boston Celtics famously traded the No. 1 pick for the No. 3 pick as the Philadelphia 76ers moved up to draft Markelle Fultz. The Celtics had Jayson Tatum No. 1 on their draft board all along, so they got their player and an extra future pick.
But that Celtics-Sixers trade happened three days before the draft. Had the Magic truly wanted to trade this No. 1 pick and move back, they'd have made the decision a few days earlier, sources said.
So the Magic listened to the Rockets' offer but firmly passed. The negotiation was brief, and the Rockets got the message: A deal was highly unlikely.
"You never know what is going to come up," Weltman said. "You never know what other teams are trying to do behind you."
And when the time came, Weltman didn't wait around. Within moments of being put on the clock by NBA commissioner Adam Silver, the Magic called in their selection, well ahead of the five-minute time limit. Any last-minute offers would have been moot.
Banchero and Smith were left to their twisting emotions, their early careers likely to be tied to that moment in Brooklyn.
"Jabari ended up in a place that fits who he is," Prather said. "There was nothing but excitement on Jabari's part about going to Houston. We love their young core. We love the city. We love the passion of their fan base."
After wiping away tears upon hearing his name called first, any unease over the way it played out faded for Banchero.
"No, this isn't even a dream. I feel like this is a fantasy," Banchero said. "I dreamed of being in the NBA, but being the No. 1 overall pick, this is crazy."
Around midnight the evening before the NBA draft, Orlando Magic president Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond walked together to their cars, talking about the event -- and decision -- that could change the course of their franchise. Less than 24 hours before the team's first No. 1 pick since 2004, the Magic's top two basketball executives weren't quite at peace.
That day, in meetings with their scouts and personnel specialists, the group had reached a tentative decision to go with Paolo Banchero, the powerful 19-year-old big man from Duke. Probably.
"If you told me Jeff would've walked into the office with a different decision in the morning," Hammond said, "I wouldn't have been shocked."
That next day, the Magic created a modern rarity: genuine surprise with the top pick on draft night. They selected Banchero after most of the league had for weeks believed they were leaning toward Jabari Smith Jr., a sweet-shooting, defensive-minded forward from Auburn.
The late reveal was a jolt to Smith, who had been preparing to join the Magic after a workout in Orlando in early June. And Banchero, who bypassed an offer to travel to Orlando for formal meetings because he wasn't sure the team was seriously considering him. And the Houston Rockets, who had prepared to pick Banchero with the third pick.
All the primary characters come together Thursday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN) as Banchero and the Magic face off against Smith and the Rockets at Las Vegas Summer League, hoping to shake off the awkwardness of the draft-night drama.
"We didn't know [Orlando was taking Banchero] until 10 minutes before the draft," Rockets general manager Rafael Stone said.
"I didn't hear from the Magic telling me for sure until a few minutes before," said Mike Miller, Banchero's agent and a 17-year NBA veteran.
And as Banchero said, "I didn't find out I was actually getting picked until about 20 seconds before the commissioner got on the stage."
The initial theory was that the Magic had run a misdirection on the rest of the league, and particularly Houston, by hiding their intentions. But multiple members of the Magic said it was merely the product of a grueling process to choose between top prospects that also included Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren.
Weltman, who has led Orlando's front office since 2017, is known for being both tight-lipped and fastidious. If there was a decision-maker in the league who could conduct such an operation, Weltman would be on the short list.
"There's a lot of strategy that goes into the draft," Weltman said. "There's a lot of secret-keeping; there's a lot of misdirection."
He and the Magic simply didn't dissuade anyone when mock drafts were formed and league intelligence percolated with the common belief that it would be Smith at No. 1, even if the team hadn't internally made the call.
"Orlando never committed to taking Jabari first," said Wallace Prather, Smith's agent. "Obviously, the internet and social media creates narratives and creates stories, and we all know it's a TV show. Orlando kept things close to the cuff."
When Weltman met with staff members shortly before the draft on June 23, he commended them for staying airtight as an organization, as their plans hadn't leaked.
"I think it's the best way to do business," Weltman said. "It's important people know information is managed discreetly with us."
Then there was the mystery of the sportsbooks. Many of the top casinos went from lowering Banchero's odds in the few days leading up to the draft to outright making him the favorite -- overnight.
While the Magic investigated -- the team came to the conclusion social media might've played a role -- the Rockets began to react.
"When [the odds] shifted, we noted it," Stone said. "If people are willing to put their money on it, especially when you see a big swing like that, it feels like maybe somebody knows something."
The Rockets reached out to Prather, a veteran agent who has a long history with the organization. Houston hadn't met with Smith before the draft, though they'd done extensive scouting and research on him. With the growing uncertainty of what the Magic might do, Prather gave the Rockets Smith's pre-draft medical reports.
This personal data, which includes previous injury history, is often closely held by players and agents. Secrecy sometimes is used as a tactic to guide players away from certain teams. It's also often not shared if an agent is confident the client will be off the board before that team picks, as was thought to be the case in this instance. The Rockets didn't have full medicals on Holmgren, either; he had only provided them to the Magic and the Oklahoma City Thunder, who had the No. 2 pick.
With the draft fast approaching, veteran agent Bill Duffy, who represents Holmgren, told the Rockets that if he got an indication the Magic and Thunder were passing on his client, he would give Holmgren's medical reports to Houston so it could prepare.
The Thunder's long-standing interest in Holmgren was known across the league, but in the hours leading up to the draft, there was apprehension that nothing might be what it seemed.
As speculation ebbed and flowed, the Magic stayed mum. Miller, Banchero's agent, saw the swinging sportsbook odds and communicated with Orlando throughout the day, naturally wanting to vet the situation. The Magic divulged nothing.
"When you're playing poker," Weltman said, "you don't put your cards on the table."
The Rockets and Thunder deepened their information gathering.
Hours passed. Once the Rockets were convinced Orlando was going with Banchero, Houston reached out to the Magic to make a trade offer to get up to the top pick, sources said.
The Rockets wouldn't have made an offer if they were certain Smith would slide to them, sources said, but they were concerned about having to make a decision on Holmgren without time to digest his medical information.
Teams drafting near each other routinely carry out due diligence, feeling out pick availability and values. Perhaps the Magic, the thinking went, were running a smoke screen -- an effort to force last-minute trade offers only to move back and take the player they had allegedly been leaning toward all along is a game as old as the draft itself.
In 2017, the Boston Celtics famously traded the No. 1 pick for the No. 3 pick as the Philadelphia 76ers moved up to draft Markelle Fultz. The Celtics had Jayson Tatum No. 1 on their draft board all along, so they got their player and an extra future pick.
But that Celtics-Sixers trade happened three days before the draft. Had the Magic truly wanted to trade this No. 1 pick and move back, they'd have made the decision a few days earlier, sources said.
So the Magic listened to the Rockets' offer but firmly passed. The negotiation was brief, and the Rockets got the message: A deal was highly unlikely.
"You never know what is going to come up," Weltman said. "You never know what other teams are trying to do behind you."
And when the time came, Weltman didn't wait around. Within moments of being put on the clock by NBA commissioner Adam Silver, the Magic called in their selection, well ahead of the five-minute time limit. Any last-minute offers would have been moot.
Banchero and Smith were left to their twisting emotions, their early careers likely to be tied to that moment in Brooklyn.
"Jabari ended up in a place that fits who he is," Prather said. "There was nothing but excitement on Jabari's part about going to Houston. We love their young core. We love the city. We love the passion of their fan base."
After wiping away tears upon hearing his name called first, any unease over the way it played out faded for Banchero.
"No, this isn't even a dream. I feel like this is a fantasy," Banchero said. "I dreamed of being in the NBA, but being the No. 1 overall pick, this is crazy."
