[h2]Cohan, Stoudemire, and the complicated Warriors motivations[/h2]
Posted by
Tim Kawakami on July 7th, 2009 at 7:55 am | Categorized as
NBA,
Warriors
* 3:49 p.m. update: I forgot to add one interesting note from the same executive. He said that the person hoping hardest for Cohan to sell the Warriors is Commissioner David Stern, who loves and understands the Bay Area market and has quietly (or maybe not so quietly) been hoping for an active Warriors owner to fully embrace and take advantage of the huge NBA audience here.
Also: I've been seeking any kind of comment-or even an official no comment-from a Warriors spokesman on a potential Cohan sale. No response. That's OK. It's not like Cohan is going to tell his employees about his readiness to sell and it's not like he'd want an employee talking to the media about it if he did.
* 11:05 a.m. update: A Chris Cohan vs. the IRS de-briefer, from Mark Fainaru-Wada's story in the Chronicle two years ago. That's a lot of money to be shiedling from the Feds!
First, what I just heard:
Warriors owner Chris Cohan recently engaged in serious discussions with a buyer for the franchise, possibly agreeing in general terms, but talks broke off when the final price couldn't be agreed to, according to an executive with broad ownership contacts.
The executive referred to my blog item last Friday, which reported that Cohan is believed to be ready to consider selling his 80% stake in the franchise.
This executive-who was not a source for the original item-said that it is generally understood in the sports community that Cohan is having "severe financial problems," related to his IRS battle, dwindling ticket revenues and flat local TV and radio payments, and is therefore extremely motivated to sell.
The executive said that he heard Cohan had all but agreed to sell the team to one of the candidates mentioned in the Friday item before the negotiations broke off, but would not say which named candidate was the almost-buyer.
The only two I specifically mentioned as speculated buyers: Oracle billionaire Larry Ellison (serious candidate) and filmmaker George Lucas (semi-serious candidate I threw in there).
Let's see if Ellison's name comes up again, since Oracle already is sinking money into the area, since Ellison has expressed interest in owning a professional franchise, and since he has loads of money.
It is also believed that the four minority owners, who bought a 20% stake in 2004, could emerge as a potential ownership group, but they apparently hold no option on purchasing control. That, and the price tag, is solely up to Cohan.
-OK, how does this relate to the off-on-off-on Amare Stoudemire trade situation?
Cohan's potentially quickening sale desires could change the dynamics of a Stoudemire trade.
Basically, Cohan might have reason to trade for Stoudemire, even if Stoudemire has little interest in signing a long-term extension with the Warriors.
That scenario had generally been considered to be a deal-breaker for the Warriors, as generally discussed by Larry Riley, since it could be devastating to the long-term talent base. But if Cohan needs an instant money boost…
* Adding Stoudemire for the short-term would give the franchise a burst of fan excitement, which might translate to an up-tick in ticket sales, and that is apparently now crucial to Cohan's immediate bottom line.
* Stoudemire, if he's at top form, teamed with Monta Ellis, Anthony Randolph and Stephen Jackson, might even give the Warriors a shot at the playoffs-and home playoff dates are worth about $1M per game. Again, every dollar is crucial to the Cohan financial situation.
Plus, prospective buyers like to take over exciting, entertaining, popular teams.
* If Stoudemire does not sign long-term, he could leave as a free agent next summer, but that might not be a disaster in Cohan's eyes as he readies for sale.
(Though it would be a fiasco for Warriors supporters, since it would mean trading Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright and Marco Belinelli, possibly and more, for nothing in 2010-2011).
Stoudemire walking away as a free agent would erase enormous money from the payroll-basically, subtracting Biedrins' long-term deal for free, and getting one year of Stoudemire as a bonus.
It would be a major talent loss, but, for Cohan and a potential buyer, it would more importantly clean the books for 2010-'11, when the Warriors would only have a handful of signed players and less than $40M committed.
* Or, Cohan could believe that a new buyer would be so enamored of having Stoudemire that he wouldn't mind Cohan signing him long-term, if Stoudemire would take it.
I asked the executive if a prospective owner would want A) Biedrins, Wright and Belinelli on the roster, but not Stoudemire; B) Stoudemire on the roster, without a long-term deal; or C) Stoudemire on the roster, signed for $20M a year for five years.
The executive said different ownership candidates would choose differently. It's impossible to know which would provide larger value to a potential buyer.