[h2]
A Modest Proposal[/h2]
Posted by
Adam Lauridsen on July 18th, 2009 at 6:57 pm | Categorized as
Summer League 2009 | Tagged as
Anthony Morrow,
Anthony Randolph,
Don Nelson,
Monta Ellis,
Stephen Jackson
In his 1729 classic A Modest Proposal, Jonathan Swift argues that the poor of Ireland might find a solution to their economic troubles in selling their children to the rich - as food. The Golden State Warriors would never engage in such barbaric behavior. They've also been comfortable selling their young players - or letting them walk away - in exchange for unwanted veterans, cap space or the simply the warm, altruistic feeling of expecting nothing in return. With Anthony Randolph and Anthony Morrow setting the Vegas Summer League on fire, we've been given the clearest glimpse yet of just how good our two second-year players might become. All Vegas dominance should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism (see Belinelli, Marco), but the Anthonys have a track record of statement games that stretches back to the final month of last season. The single biggest question that will hang over the next few months is whether Nelson will find a way to showcase the skills of both players when the team isn't tanking, veterans aren't on forced vacations, and Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson are both back, wanting 20-plus shots a night.
The cautious optimism over Randolph and Morrow's performances in Vegas is well deserved, given the Warriors' past experiences with desert mirages. But the Anthonys are different - they've nearly matched their best Vegas performances in the regular season when they were given significant minutes and touches. A brief historical recap:
Anthony Morrow played 42 minutes on November 15, torching the Clippers for 37 points in his starting debut. He played 36 and 34 minutes the next two nights - then had to wait two months before he was given a chance to play more than 30 minutes again. In his top ten outings in terms of minutes, he managed:
- April 10 (L Hou) - 46 mins, 4-14 FG, 2-5 3PT, 6 rebs, 16 pts
- April 5 (W Sac) - 45 mins, 7-14 FG, 4-8 3PT, 18 pts
- April 15 (L Pho) - 44 mins, 13-22 FG, 3-5 3PT, 12 rebs, 33 pts
- April 13 (L SA) - 44 mins, 3-10 FG, 0-3 3PT, 8 rebs, 10 pts
- April 3 (W NO) - 43 mins, 8-13 FG, 5-9 3PT, 5 rebs, 24 pts
- November 15 (W LAC) - 42 mins, 15-20 FG, 4-5 3PT, 11 rebs, 37 pts
- January 25 (W LAC) - 39 mins, 6-15 FG, 3-8 3PT, 4 asts 17 pts
- March 25 (L Dal) - 36 mins, 10-11 FG, 3-4 3PT, 29 pts
- November 18 (W Por) - 36 mins, 8-12 FG, 4-5 3PT, 4 rebs, 25 pts
- March 28 (L Den) - 36 mins, 7-14 FG, 4-8 3PT, 18 pts
Anthony Randolph had to wait until March 6 to break the 30-minute threshold, in the infamous Detroit game where Nelson played Randolph until - and after - his legs cramped up. Randolph's minutes in that game were largely due to an in-game injury by Turiaf, leaving Kurz and Davidson as the only other available big men. Randolph's minutes immediate dropped until the end of the month - long after the team had thrown in the towel for the season - when Nelson finally set him loose on the NBA. His top ten outings by minutes played:
- March 6 (L Det) - 47 mins, 5-13 FG, 8 rebs, 3 blks, 17 pts
- April 13 (L SA) - 45 mins, 10-18 FG, 16 rebs, 4 stls, 4 asts, 24 pts
- April 3 (W NO) - 39 mins, 8-17 FG, 15 rebs, 20 pts
- March 30 (L Mem) - 38 mins, 3-4 FG, 12 rebs, 3 blks, 8 pts
- April 15 (L Pho) - 35 mins, 6-15 FG, 8 rebs, 14 pts
- April 10 (L Hou) - 33 mins, 7-15, 4 rebs, 17 pts
- March 25 (L Dal) - 31 mins, 4-8 FG, 6 rebs, 10 pts
- March 28 (L Den) - 30 mins, 4-11 FG, 14 rebs, 3 stls, 4 blks, 10 pts
- April 5 (W Sac) - 30 mins, 4-14 FG, 13 rebs, 2 blks, 4 stls, 8 pts
- April 11 (W Uth) - 29 mins, 3-5 FG, 8 rebs, 11 pts
A few things are shocking and ominous about the numbers above:
- There's a strong argument to be made that Morrow could have put up performances like he managed in March and April all season long. His numbers from his initial November outburst were very similar to those later in the year. His playing time dried up, however, when Jamal Crawford joined the team. Those thinking that Morrow is a lock for minutes given his summer performance should take this as a cautionary tale - Jackson, Ellis and even Azubuike will expect to play heavy minutes, and I have a hard time seeing Nelson giving Morrow equivalent minutes to any of them, other than potentially Azubuike.
- Randolph got almost no touches in the Warriors' offense. Stephen Jackson averaged 17 shots a game - at 41% shooting - while Randolph only managed two games in which he matched or exceeded Jackson's average. The absence of any true point guard play kept Randolph from getting the ball where he could do damage. His summer league performances showed what he's capable of offensively when he gets even minimal attention from the person running the offense. I'm not holding out much hope that either Ellis or Jackson get him the ball more frequently this season - and I have even less hope that Nelson will adjust his offense to feature Randolph. Curry gained some experience feeding Anthony during the summer league, but it remains to be seen whether he'll be able to get around bigger, quicker point guards to execute the drop-down pass or attack the rim for the drive-and-kick.
- The chemistry between Randolph and Morrow - likely a product of working out constantly together for the last two months - was one of the most enjoyable aspects of watching the often-ugly summer league play. To make the most of that chemistry, however, they'll have to have a chance to play together. Randolph should be a lock for power forward minutes (although I wince every time Riley mentions looking for a veteran PF given Nelson's rotation proclivities). Morrow, however, has to fight through Ellis, Jackson, Azubuike and potentially Curry to get minutes. The minute mix gets even messier if we match Watson's offer sheet from Orlando. Since both Ellis and Jackson expect to play major minutes, the ideal solution would seem to be starting Morrow at the SG spot, spelling him with a mix of Curry at 1/2 and Azubuike at 2/3. Morrow's defense was a liability at times early last season, but was improving at the end of last season and looked even better during the summer league. Also, as long as Ellis gets minutes, defense is not a viable justification for sitting anyone. The only problem with the Ellis/Morrow/Jackson trio is that it almost guarantees, like last year, that Morrow and Randolph will be the distant third and fourth options in the offense. If the team goes super small with Curry/Ellis/Morrow, Jackson throws a tantrum and we get abused even more on defense. It's hard to find a scenario - other than the one to end last season with both Ellis and Jackson out - where Morrow and Jackson manage 30-plus minutes on the court together. And that's a problem.
The good news: the Warriors have two of the most exciting, fun-to-watch players in the NBA in Randolph and Morrow. They're young, they're hungry, and they're only getting better. The bad news: it's not clear that with our current roster and coach, they'll be getting major minutes together on the court next year. If we plan on truly committing to yet another promising young core of players (09-10 edition - Curry, Morrow, Randolph), we can give major minutes to Jackson or Ellis, but not both. If Randolph and Morrow get the minutes they're proving that they deserve, we'll likely be dealing with an unhappy Ellis or Jackson by the middle of next year. Then again, Nelson could just continue playing Ellis and Jackson 40 minutes a night and Riley/Rowell/Cohan can sell Morrow to the one of the NBA's elites. I'm sure they wouldn't use him for food.
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/warriors/2009/07/18/a-modest-proposal/