Hide Ya Wives, Hide Ya Kids: Worldwide Coronavirus Pandemic!

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NEW YORK REPORTS 1600 NEW COVID-19 CASES - CUOMO
778 NEW DEATHS REPORTED vs 671 prior
NEW YORK STATEWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS INCREASE TO 10,834 FROM 10,056 A DAY EARLIER - GOVERNOR CUOMO
NEW YORK STATEWIDE NEW COVID HOSPITALIZATIONS TOTALS ABOUT 1,600 ON APRIL 13, DOWN FROM 1,958 A DAY EARLIER - GOVERNOR CUOMO
 
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[RTRS] - U.S. HEALTH EXPERT FAUCI SAYS MAY 1 TARGET DATE FOR REOPENING ECONOMY "OVERLY OPTIMISTIC" FOR MANY PARTS OF U.S. -AP INTERVIEW

FAUCI SAYS U.S. DOES NOT HAVE CRITICAL TESTING AND TRACING PROCEDURES NEEDED TO REOPEN ECONOMY -AP INTERVIEW
 
casper90403 said:
I'm just curious how the model came to 95% infection rate. To me, its saying the **** hasn't hit the fan yet for Cali?
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With unmitigated spread and the lack of immunity in the population, pretty much everyone would get it. Asymptomatic spreaders makes it worse. It doubles every 5 days or so without precautions in place, so 1 infection leads to 1000 within 7 weeks, which leads to 1000000 in 14 weeks. Cali is already at 25,000 diagnosed cases (so probably 100k to 500k people infected). In a month that would be up in the range of 3-10 million if people went back to normal.

That said, it's hard to say what would happen once we go from ~5% infected to ~25% infected and higher. Cruise ships are a good case study to look at. For the Diamond Princess, it was something like 700 out of 3000. But it's unclear if the remaining 2300 were exposed and if they would've tested positive had the cruise gone on longer (or if some of them were infected and recovered already).

People keep citing Sweden as a model. Sweden is still social distancing. They shut down any large gatherings and sporting events. You can eat at a restaurant but not at the bar. I think high schools and colleges are closed. So I think that's what it will look like when we start reopening.
 
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promac said:
is that the same model that said 2 million Americans were going to die from this?
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i would have to say no. Wasn't the 2M model one Trump and administration "made up" so that he can say he saved the day when we see less than 100k deaths?

The Cali model seems to go against what he wants to happen
 
whywesteppin said:
It's fairly standard. With unmitigated spread and the lack of immunity in the population, pretty much everyone would get it. Asymptomatic spreaders makes it worse. It doubles every 5 days or so without precautions in place, so 1 infection leads to 1000 within 7 weeks, which leads to 1000000 in 14 weeks.

Cali is already at 25,000 diagnosed cases (so probably 100k to 500k people infected). In a month that would be up in the range of 3-10 million if people went back to normal.

People keep citing Sweden as a model. Sweden is still social distancing. They shut down any large gatherings and sporting events. You can eat at a restaurant but not at the bar. I think high schools and colleges are closed. So I think that's what it will look like when we start reopening.
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