NBA Draft Thread 2011

[osh kosh bosh]

Brandon Knight is not an NBA level point guard at all, people who believe he is the most ready are in for a rude awakening, he's going to have to learn how to run an offense, something he proved to be largely incompetent at during his whole season at Kentucky.

He showed some improvement but to me besides the fact that he's young, has a nice frame I fail to see the optimism about his NBA prospects beyond being a mediocre combo guard.

John Hollingers draft rater seems interesting?

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Brandon Knight is not an NBA level point guard at all, people who believe he is the most ready are in for a rude awakening, he's going to have to learn how to run an offense, something he proved to be largely incompetent at during his whole season at Kentucky.

He showed some improvement but to me besides the fact that he's young, has a nice frame I fail to see the optimism about his NBA prospects beyond being a mediocre combo guard.

John Hollingers draft rater seems interesting?

 

[proshares]

Draft rater.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

It's a fool's errand, but let's do it anyway.

Yep, it's time for the Draft Rater. There are inherent limitations in trying to pore through a player's statistics and project what he'll be capable of five years down the road. The things the stats don't tell us -- about his dedication, eating habits, off-court life, the system his team runs, and 10,000 other things -- badly outnumber what the stats do tell us.

Yet, surprisingly, the stats seem able to tell us quite a bit. That's the premise behind the Draft Rater, my annual data-driven guide to the draft, and this year we have better clues than ever as to how it can help us and how it can't.

To review, my Draft Rater is a regression analysis comparing 16 variables to a player's NBA player efficiency rating, using the average of their top three seasons in their first seven years as a pro. Some haven't played three seasons yet or won't ever, so we take their career PER. We've also set a PER floor of 4.0 for those who couldn't make the league, and 5.0 for those who barely made it.

I've once again rebuilt it from the bottom up this year. Along with this year's revisions, the Rater was already getting smarter every year as it got more data and more NBA results from players already drafted. As a result, we can see with greater specificity which statistics translate to the pro game and which ones don't.

Second, we've seen the particular ways in which it fails. The most obvious one is on all the squishy stuff -- character, dedication, conditioning, etc. Michael Beasley, Michael Sweetney and DeMarcus Cousins all got huge marks from the Draft Rater, but one could justify passing on them on draft day given the other red flags. Similarly, we don't have a good measure for injury-proneness either -- Curtis Borchardt, Brandan Wright and Greg Oden, take a bow.

But more particularly, in back testing this year's Draft Rater, it's become obvious where it succeeds and where it falters. To wit:

• One-and-done gives it trouble. This isn't a fatal weakness, but players who stay only one year don't give the Rater enough information to develop a reliable estimate ... especially ones who improve rapidly through their freshman season, as Derrick Rose did in his one season at Memphis. Rose still finished with a strong rating, but if we'd based it solely on the second half of his freshman season it would have been much higher.

• UCLA messes it up. For some reason, every Ben Howland product massively outperformed his estimate as a pro. This is over a period of seven years involving 13 NBA prospects, and all of them except Josh Shipp outperformed; many of them did so by wide margins. Given the consistency of the disparity, I included a "Howland" variable in this year's model. One can argue that this is a case overfitting the model to past results, so we'll see how it projects this year with Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee.

• It's way better with perimeter players. This is probably the biggest realization from looking at back data on the draft rater. Perimeter players with high ratings all become stars. All of them. The big guys? Not so much. Some of them have become superstars -- Love, Blake Griffin, Chris Bosh. Many others, however, have merely been decent players. A couple with fairly high ratings haven't been able to play at all.

I believe there are two reasons for this.

The first is off the court. Looking back, if I could tag the stats with additional variables like "doesn't like basketball," "space cadet" or "pothead," I could make the projection for big men considerably more accurate.

This isn't a factor for perimeter players because it's very difficult to have such glaring red flags and succeed as a wing or a point guard -- there are too many other people of the same size and too many skills required that can be developed with only a certain level of dedication.

For big men it's a different game, however, especially at the college level. The biggest and most athletic ones can dominate the glass and shoot 65 percent on dunks and layups without developing much of anything else in the way of basketball skills.

[h4]Top-rated point guards, 2002-2011[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rate[/th][/tr][tr][td]Chris Paul[/td][td]15.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kyrie Irving[/td][td]15.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Farmar[/td][td]14.80[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jrue Holiday[/td][td]14.04[/td][/tr][tr][td]T.J. Ford[/td][td]13.65[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jay Williams[/td][td]13.38[/td][/tr][tr][td]Russell Westbrook[/td][td]13.24[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Conley[/td][td]13.07[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jameer Nelson[/td][td]13.05[/td][/tr][tr][td]Derrick Rose[/td][td]12.99[/td][/tr][tr][td]John Wall[/td][td]12.89[/td][/tr][/table]

Second, I believe the stats translate better for perimeter players because it's very hard to get true one-on-one post-up chances at the college level, but this is a major part of the diet for most NBA big men -- especially the ones that are drafted in the lottery. So for perimeter players, the college stats are a much more apples-to-apples translation.

• It skews higher for big men. This, in retrospect, is not a "problem" as much as something to keep in mind. In any draft, most of the early picks are big men, and there's a good reason for this -- first because size is rare, and second because bigs in general have a greater disparity between good and bad.

Second, historically power forwards have had the easiest time racking up a solid PER, and most of the big men on the board on draft day are power forwards rather than centers. As a result, in any given season there will be more highly rated bigs than perimeter players.

So, to review, it ain't perfect. But we can still learn a ton from it. Let's take a look at this year's Rater and see what it says about the top college prospects:
[h3]Kyrie Irving is the one sure thing[/h3]
If I had to put my money on one player in the draft becoming a star, it would be Kyrie Irving.

OK, no shock there.

But here's the logic -- Irving's rating of 15.12 is the best of any perimeter player. While he compiled that in just 312 minutes, his low minute total actually hurts him in the Draft Rater (minutes played are a positive indicator of future success). And he's in pretty exclusive company. The other perimeter players to post a rating of more than 15 all became stars -- since 2002, the six perimeter players to do so are Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Dwyane Wade, Danny Granger and Rudy Gay. Based on those comparables, I like my chances if I'm Cleveland.

[h4]Top-rated point guards, 2002-2011[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Chris Paul[/td][td]15.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kyrie Irving[/td][td]15.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Farmar[/td][td]14.80[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jrue Holiday[/td][td]14.04[/td][/tr][tr][td]T.J. Ford[/td][td]13.65[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jay Williams[/td][td]13.38[/td][/tr][tr][td]Russell Westbrook[/td][td]13.24[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Conley[/td][td]13.07[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jameer Nelson[/td][td]13.05[/td][/tr][tr][td]Derrick Rose[/td][td]12.99[/td][/tr][tr][td]John Wall[/td][td]12.89[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Two more perimeter players to like[/h3]
If I had to peg two other perimeter players that I would guarantee to at least become solid rotation players, it would be Kemba Walker and Kawhi Leonard. While this year's draft doesn't project to have a lot of star talent at the perimeter positions, Walker and Leonard are the two who rate above 12 -- which, historically, has been a guarantee of at least being decent.

Of the 13 point guards to rate above 12, the list includes Paul, Jordan Farmar, T.J. Ford, Jay Williams, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Jameer Nelson, Derrick Rose, John Wall, Frank Williams, Ty Lawson, Ray Felton and Darren Collison. Jay Williams had a bad injury, of course, but of those 12 only Frank Williams couldn't play. The others were all decent-to-great, which means Walker, at 12.75, looks fairly bust-proof.

Similarly, of the 14 wings to rate better than 12, the list includes Durant, Wade, Anthony, Granger, Gay, Luol Deng, Josh Childress, Mike Dunleavy, Dajuan Wagner, Rashad McCants, Evan Turner, Delonte West, Caron Butler and Ben Gordon. Only Wagner and McCants failed, and each pretty clearly had NBA talent. So Leonard, at 13.21 with no injury or character red flags, looks like a very, very safe play.

[h4]Top 10 wings, 2002-2011[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Kevin Durant[/td][td]17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dwyane Wade[/td][td]17.05[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carmelo Anthony[/td][td]16.63[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Granger[/td][td]15.43[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rudy Gay[/td][td]15.10[/td][/tr][tr][td]Luol Deng[/td][td]14.46[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Childress[/td][td]13.37[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kawhi Leonard[/td][td]13.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Dunleavy[/td][td]12.95[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dajuan Wagner[/td][td]12.72[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]The mystery man[/h3]
Tyler Honeycutt of UCLA is the player I'm most interested in watching in this draft (and this coming season). His rating of 12.56 rates him as a quality rotation player on the wing and a lottery pick.

However, much of his rating stems from the fact that he's a Howland product; eliminating that fact from the database knocked him down several pegs. Again, if we're guilty of overfitting the model to past results, he shouldn't be this high. He's projected to go late in the first round right now and could represent good value based on the overachieving history of other players from his school. Since I'm still apprehensive about the UCLA adjustment I have him 13th on my board.
[h3]Two Euros to watch[/h3]
My Euroleague translations say two players in this year's draft, Jonas Valanciunas and Nikola Mirotic, would be rotation players immediately if they came to the States. Valanciunas rated higher, with a translated PER of 14.70 (albeit in limited minutes) compare to 13.66 for Mirotic. Of perhaps more importance is that Mirotic is contractually bound to stay in Europe for a few more years. He'd be a top-10 pick on my board if it weren't for that; as it is, I've dropped him behind all the players I consider relatively safe bets.

[h4]Translated PER from Euroleague games[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jonas Valanciunas[/td][td]14.70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Giorgi Shermadini[/td][td]14.63[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nikola Mirotic[/td][td]13.66[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jan Vesely[/td][td]10.72[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bojan Bogdanovic[/td][td]10.40[/td][/tr][/table]

The other top European prospect, Czech forward Jan Vesely, doesn't grade out nearly as well. His first-year PER translates to 10.72; while one supposes he would improve further from that point given his youth and athleticism, it still makes him somewhere south of a sure thing. I've listed him as a top-20 pick based on potential and the general weakness of this draft, but taking him in the top five or 10 would be a mistake.

Two other internationals who warrant mentioning are Giorgi Shermadini and Bojan Bogdanovic. Shermadini, a 7-footer from the Republic of Georgia, forecasts as a sleeper with a 14.63 translated PER; however, he played in just 249 minutes, so we should take that with a grain of salt. He's an intriguing second-round play nonetheless. Bogdanovic is a more traditional second-round hopeful -- probably not good enough to play in the NBA now, but maybe he improves on somebody else's dime over the next few years.
[h3]No numbers here[/h3]
There are four international men of mystery in this draft who did not play in the Euroleague last season and thus have no translated stats for me to discuss: Bismack Biyombo, Enes Kanter, Donatas Motiejunas, and Davis Bertans.

Fortunately, I've seen all three at the Hoop Summit the past two seasons. Biyombo has scouts worried because he can't shoot at all, but he's a dominating defensive force in the paint; at the absolute worst he's going to be better than Ekpe Udoh. I slotted him 11th on my board, behind all the players the Draft Rater is really gung-ho about. He's going to be a rotation player based on defense and rebounding alone; the question is if he can finish enough plays at the basket to start.

Kanter is sort of the anti-Biyombo; He's not much of an athlete and will be suspect at the defensive end, but has such a high skill level offensively that he's going to score relatively easily. A good comparable might be fellow Turk Mehmet Okur, except Kanter is probably more skilled with the ball.

Motiejunas and Bertans are worthwhile choices later in the first round; each is high on skill but suspect in terms of strength and athleticism. An American who was last seen in Europe, Jeremy Tyler, falls into the same category.
[h3]Two point guards on the fence[/h3]
Brandon Knight could go as high as the third pick, while Jimmer Fredette is also a likely lottery selection. Draft Rater is pretty lukewarm on both of them. Knight rates at 10.02 and Fredette rates at 10.45; unheralded Norris Cole of Cleveland State has a better rating than both. Each projects to have a career, but probably as a third guard or marginal starter.

[h4]Draft Rater top-rated perimeter players[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Kyrie Irving[/td][td]15.14[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kawhi Leonard[/td][td]13.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kemba Walker[/td][td]12.75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyler Honeycutt[/td][td]12.56[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Hamilton[/td][td]11.90[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alec Burks[/td][td]11.87[/td][/tr][tr][td]Klay Thompson[/td][td]10.88[/td][/tr][tr][td]Norris Cole[/td][td]10.85[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jimmer Fredette[/td][td]10.45[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Singleton[/td][td]10.15[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Knight[/td][td]10.02[/td][/tr][tr][td]Darius Morris[/td][td]9.57[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Wanamaker[/td][td]9.57[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reggie Jackson[/td][td]9.45[/td][/tr][tr][td]Damian Saunders[/td][td]9.20[/td][/tr][/table]

In Knight's case, as a one-and-done we have to acknowledge that the system hasn't rated players like him as accurately, although it has done very well with guards as a whole. Fredette has a slightly better rating in a larger body of work.

Among point guards to rate between 10 and 11, the historical comps aren't great: One All-Star (Rajon Rondo), one really good player (Kyle Lowry), several halfway decent players (Luke Ridnour, .J. Augustin, Jerryd Bayless, Mario Chalmers), and some end-of-bench filler (Darius Washington, Marcus Banks).

I moved Knight up to 12th on my board to reflect that his one-and-done status may result in his being undervalued; on sheer rating he'd be in the 20s. Fredette I've left at 19 ... two spots behind Cole.
[h3]Guards who don't make the cut[/h3]
Probably the most suspect candidate, according to Draft Rater, is Marshon Brooks; his 7.88 rating was 27th among perimeter players. The Providence guard put up huge stats, but his average is hugely padded by two factors: First, the Friars played the fastest pace of any major Division I team; second, Brooks played nearly every minute of every game, averaging 36.5 per game -- remember, they play only 40 in college. Let all the air out and his numbers look a lot more ordinary -- his usage rate, which is his most alluring stat, ranks only ninth among prospects. Given his age (22 and five months) and his relative inefficiency, I'm not sure there's a ton to see here. Draft Rater sees him as a second rounder.

Kansas' Josh Selby rated even worse -- 7.69, 30th among perimeter players. I moved him up my board a bit to account for his one-and-done status, but his raw numbers were rather poor. In particular, a point guard with a -1.11 pure point rating should send talent evaluators shrieking. It was easily the worst of any point guard prospect, and worse than all but five wings as well.
[h3]The big man conundrum[/h3]
As I noted above, the Draft Rater has been really solid on perimeter players. On interior players, the results have been a bit more scattered. The problem has been "false positives." It has picked out all the guys who could play; it has just picked out a lot of other guys a long with them.

[h4]Top rated bigs, 2002-2011[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Kevin Love[/td][td]20.78[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Beasley[/td][td]18.36[/td][/tr][tr][td]Greg Oden[/td][td]17.69[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyrus Thomas[/td][td]17.25[/td][/tr][tr][td]Blake Griffin[/td][td]17.14[/td][/tr][tr][td]Andrew Bogut[/td][td]16.90[/td][/tr][tr][td]DeMarcus Cousins[/td][td]16.86[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Sweetney[/td][td]16.70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tristan Thompson [/td][td]16.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Curtis Borchardt[/td][td]16.01[/td][/tr][tr][td]Derrick Williams [/td][td]15.97[/td][/tr][tr][td]Greg Monroe[/td][td]15.77[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jared Jeffries[/td][td]15.65[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Bosh[/td][td]15.57[/td][/tr][tr][td]Derrick Favors[/td][td]15.51[/td][/tr][/table]

For that reason, we want to tread a little more carefully with the frontcourt players. However, two players in particular warrant our attention: Tristan Thompson and Derrick Williams.

Thompson and Williams had the highest ratings of any player in the Draft Rater this year, and while that doesn't come with the same assurances it does for Kyrie Irving, they both appear to be very solid prospects. Of the 13 players who rated at 15.5 or above in previous iterations, most were very successful as pros, and the ones that weren't tended to fail due to injuries and lack of professionalism -- issues that shouldn't be factors for Thompson and Williams. The one true miss was Jared Jeffries.

The other strong frontcourt prospect is Tobias Harris of Tennessee with a rating of 14.83. Of the 19 big men to rate between 13.5 and 15.5, a few were dogs, but two became All-Stars (Al Horford and Carlos Boozer) and most became quality players.

Things start getting more iffy at the next level, where we get into the Jon Leuers and Nikola Vucevicses. Also included in that group is unheralded Greg Smith from Fresno State, who could end up as a second-round steal.

[h4]Draft Rater: Top-rated big men[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Tristan Thompson[/td][td]16.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Derrick Williams[/td][td]15.97[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tobias Harris[/td][td]14.83[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jon Leuer[/td][td]13.47[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nikola Vucevic[/td][td]13.32[/td][/tr][tr][td]Greg Smith[/td][td]12.93[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Williams[/td][td]11.87[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rick Jackson[/td][td]11.65[/td][/tr][tr][td]JaJuan Johnson[/td][td]11.54[/td][/tr][tr][td]Malcolm Thomas[/td][td]11.29[/td][/tr][tr][td]Marcus Morris[/td][td]10.93[/td][/tr][tr][td]Matt Howard[/td][td]10.49[/td][/tr][tr][td]Trey Thompkins[/td][td]10.44[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kenneth Faried[/td][td]10.25[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jamie Skeen[/td][td]10.17[/td][/tr][tr][td]Markieff Morris[/td][td]10.03[/td][/tr][tr][td]Justin Harper[/td][td]9.58[/td][/tr][/table]

Big men who rated between 12 and 14, as those three did, have been a mixed bag: Nearly all had careers and some were very good, but several were career backups and a few were just flat-out bad. Of the 29, two became All-Stars (LaMarcus Aldridge and David West), and 15 of the 29 became top-eight rotation players.

Similarly, those who rated between 11 and 12 -- as Malcolm Thomas, Jordan Williams, Rick Jackson and JaJuan Johnson do -- were very much a mixed bag. The takeaway here is to put more credence on scouting reports with players in this range; I've done that on my draft board. Lacking strong evidence one way or the other in this range, we'll go with the subjective opinions.

At the back end, two players who rate surprisingly weak are Marcus and Markieff Morris of Kansas. Historically, big men who rate between 10 and 11 are career backups. Of the 23 who did so, only David Lee became a star; five others became top-eight rotation players, and the rest were bench filler or didn't make the league at all. Based on that information, they're late first- or early second-round selections. On my board, I have the Morrises ahead of the other players in the 10-12 range, but it's tough to justify putting them ahead of similarly rated perimeter players.
[h3]Summing it up[/h3]
Which takes us to the final step -- my draft board. Based on all the information from Draft Rater, the projections of the Europeans, what I've seen in the past three Hoop Summits, and using the general consensus of draftniks as a tie-breaker with the close calls, here's how my board of the top 60 looks.

But first, if you're looking for the CliffsNotes version of my Draft Rater, here are the five big takeaways:

• Marshon Brooks, Josh Selby and the two Morrises appear overvalued.
• Brandon Knight, Jimmer Fredette and Jan Vesely are overvalued, but not as strongly.
• Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams are, rightly, the top two players on the board.
• Tristan Thompson and Tobias Harris are undervalued.
• Jon Leuer, Norris Cole and Greg Smith are your sleepers.

And now, my top 60 heading into Wednesday:
[h3]My board[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Brendan Maloney/US PresswireTristan Thompson rises all the way to No. 3 in the Draft Rater.
1. Kyrie Irving
2. Derrick Williams
3. Tristan Thompson
4. Jonas Valuncianas
5. Kawhi Leonard
6. Enes Kanter
7. Kemba Walker
8. Tobias Harris
9. Alec Burks
10. Jordan Hamilton
11. Bismack Biyombo
12. Brandon Knight
13. Tyler Honeycutt
14. Jon Leuer
15. Nikola Vucevic
16. Chris Singleton
17. Jan Vesely
18. Klay Thompson
19. Norris Cole
20. Iman Shumpert
21. Nikola Mirotic
22. Jimmer Fredette
23. Donatas Motiejunas
24. Greg Smith
25. Marcus Morris
26. JaJuan Johnson
27. Markieff Morris
28. Davis Bertans
29. Kenneth Faried
30. Jeremy Tyler

[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/David RichardNorris Cole gets a good bump up the boards in Draft Rater's book.
31. Jordan Williams
32. Bojan Bogdanovic
33. Darius Morris
34. Giorgi Shermadini
35. Reggie Jackson
36. Rick Jackson
37. Brad Wanamaker
38. Damian Saunders
39. Nolan Smith
40. Malcolm Thomas
41. Travis Leslie
42. Trey Thompkins
43. Malcolm Lee
44. Charles Jenkins
45. Cory Joseph
46. E'Twaun Moore
47. Josh Selby
48. Jacob Pullen
49. Justin Harper
50. Jimmy Butler
51. Matt Howard
52. Jamie Skeen
53. Jereme Richmond
54. Keith Benson
55. D.J. Kennedy
56. Marshon Brooks
57. Isaiah Thomas
58. Andrew Goudelouck
59. Lavoy Allen
60. Shelvin Mack

 

[proshares]

Draft rater.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

It's a fool's errand, but let's do it anyway.

Yep, it's time for the Draft Rater. There are inherent limitations in trying to pore through a player's statistics and project what he'll be capable of five years down the road. The things the stats don't tell us -- about his dedication, eating habits, off-court life, the system his team runs, and 10,000 other things -- badly outnumber what the stats do tell us.

Yet, surprisingly, the stats seem able to tell us quite a bit. That's the premise behind the Draft Rater, my annual data-driven guide to the draft, and this year we have better clues than ever as to how it can help us and how it can't.

To review, my Draft Rater is a regression analysis comparing 16 variables to a player's NBA player efficiency rating, using the average of their top three seasons in their first seven years as a pro. Some haven't played three seasons yet or won't ever, so we take their career PER. We've also set a PER floor of 4.0 for those who couldn't make the league, and 5.0 for those who barely made it.

I've once again rebuilt it from the bottom up this year. Along with this year's revisions, the Rater was already getting smarter every year as it got more data and more NBA results from players already drafted. As a result, we can see with greater specificity which statistics translate to the pro game and which ones don't.

Second, we've seen the particular ways in which it fails. The most obvious one is on all the squishy stuff -- character, dedication, conditioning, etc. Michael Beasley, Michael Sweetney and DeMarcus Cousins all got huge marks from the Draft Rater, but one could justify passing on them on draft day given the other red flags. Similarly, we don't have a good measure for injury-proneness either -- Curtis Borchardt, Brandan Wright and Greg Oden, take a bow.

But more particularly, in back testing this year's Draft Rater, it's become obvious where it succeeds and where it falters. To wit:

• One-and-done gives it trouble. This isn't a fatal weakness, but players who stay only one year don't give the Rater enough information to develop a reliable estimate ... especially ones who improve rapidly through their freshman season, as Derrick Rose did in his one season at Memphis. Rose still finished with a strong rating, but if we'd based it solely on the second half of his freshman season it would have been much higher.

• UCLA messes it up. For some reason, every Ben Howland product massively outperformed his estimate as a pro. This is over a period of seven years involving 13 NBA prospects, and all of them except Josh Shipp outperformed; many of them did so by wide margins. Given the consistency of the disparity, I included a "Howland" variable in this year's model. One can argue that this is a case overfitting the model to past results, so we'll see how it projects this year with Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee.

• It's way better with perimeter players. This is probably the biggest realization from looking at back data on the draft rater. Perimeter players with high ratings all become stars. All of them. The big guys? Not so much. Some of them have become superstars -- Love, Blake Griffin, Chris Bosh. Many others, however, have merely been decent players. A couple with fairly high ratings haven't been able to play at all.

I believe there are two reasons for this.

The first is off the court. Looking back, if I could tag the stats with additional variables like "doesn't like basketball," "space cadet" or "pothead," I could make the projection for big men considerably more accurate.

This isn't a factor for perimeter players because it's very difficult to have such glaring red flags and succeed as a wing or a point guard -- there are too many other people of the same size and too many skills required that can be developed with only a certain level of dedication.

For big men it's a different game, however, especially at the college level. The biggest and most athletic ones can dominate the glass and shoot 65 percent on dunks and layups without developing much of anything else in the way of basketball skills.

[h4]Top-rated point guards, 2002-2011[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rate[/th][/tr][tr][td]Chris Paul[/td][td]15.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kyrie Irving[/td][td]15.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Farmar[/td][td]14.80[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jrue Holiday[/td][td]14.04[/td][/tr][tr][td]T.J. Ford[/td][td]13.65[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jay Williams[/td][td]13.38[/td][/tr][tr][td]Russell Westbrook[/td][td]13.24[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Conley[/td][td]13.07[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jameer Nelson[/td][td]13.05[/td][/tr][tr][td]Derrick Rose[/td][td]12.99[/td][/tr][tr][td]John Wall[/td][td]12.89[/td][/tr][/table]

Second, I believe the stats translate better for perimeter players because it's very hard to get true one-on-one post-up chances at the college level, but this is a major part of the diet for most NBA big men -- especially the ones that are drafted in the lottery. So for perimeter players, the college stats are a much more apples-to-apples translation.

• It skews higher for big men. This, in retrospect, is not a "problem" as much as something to keep in mind. In any draft, most of the early picks are big men, and there's a good reason for this -- first because size is rare, and second because bigs in general have a greater disparity between good and bad.

Second, historically power forwards have had the easiest time racking up a solid PER, and most of the big men on the board on draft day are power forwards rather than centers. As a result, in any given season there will be more highly rated bigs than perimeter players.

So, to review, it ain't perfect. But we can still learn a ton from it. Let's take a look at this year's Rater and see what it says about the top college prospects:
[h3]Kyrie Irving is the one sure thing[/h3]
If I had to put my money on one player in the draft becoming a star, it would be Kyrie Irving.

OK, no shock there.

But here's the logic -- Irving's rating of 15.12 is the best of any perimeter player. While he compiled that in just 312 minutes, his low minute total actually hurts him in the Draft Rater (minutes played are a positive indicator of future success). And he's in pretty exclusive company. The other perimeter players to post a rating of more than 15 all became stars -- since 2002, the six perimeter players to do so are Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Dwyane Wade, Danny Granger and Rudy Gay. Based on those comparables, I like my chances if I'm Cleveland.

[h4]Top-rated point guards, 2002-2011[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Chris Paul[/td][td]15.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kyrie Irving[/td][td]15.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Farmar[/td][td]14.80[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jrue Holiday[/td][td]14.04[/td][/tr][tr][td]T.J. Ford[/td][td]13.65[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jay Williams[/td][td]13.38[/td][/tr][tr][td]Russell Westbrook[/td][td]13.24[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Conley[/td][td]13.07[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jameer Nelson[/td][td]13.05[/td][/tr][tr][td]Derrick Rose[/td][td]12.99[/td][/tr][tr][td]John Wall[/td][td]12.89[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Two more perimeter players to like[/h3]
If I had to peg two other perimeter players that I would guarantee to at least become solid rotation players, it would be Kemba Walker and Kawhi Leonard. While this year's draft doesn't project to have a lot of star talent at the perimeter positions, Walker and Leonard are the two who rate above 12 -- which, historically, has been a guarantee of at least being decent.

Of the 13 point guards to rate above 12, the list includes Paul, Jordan Farmar, T.J. Ford, Jay Williams, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Jameer Nelson, Derrick Rose, John Wall, Frank Williams, Ty Lawson, Ray Felton and Darren Collison. Jay Williams had a bad injury, of course, but of those 12 only Frank Williams couldn't play. The others were all decent-to-great, which means Walker, at 12.75, looks fairly bust-proof.

Similarly, of the 14 wings to rate better than 12, the list includes Durant, Wade, Anthony, Granger, Gay, Luol Deng, Josh Childress, Mike Dunleavy, Dajuan Wagner, Rashad McCants, Evan Turner, Delonte West, Caron Butler and Ben Gordon. Only Wagner and McCants failed, and each pretty clearly had NBA talent. So Leonard, at 13.21 with no injury or character red flags, looks like a very, very safe play.

[h4]Top 10 wings, 2002-2011[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Kevin Durant[/td][td]17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dwyane Wade[/td][td]17.05[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carmelo Anthony[/td][td]16.63[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Granger[/td][td]15.43[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rudy Gay[/td][td]15.10[/td][/tr][tr][td]Luol Deng[/td][td]14.46[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Childress[/td][td]13.37[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kawhi Leonard[/td][td]13.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Dunleavy[/td][td]12.95[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dajuan Wagner[/td][td]12.72[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]The mystery man[/h3]
Tyler Honeycutt of UCLA is the player I'm most interested in watching in this draft (and this coming season). His rating of 12.56 rates him as a quality rotation player on the wing and a lottery pick.

However, much of his rating stems from the fact that he's a Howland product; eliminating that fact from the database knocked him down several pegs. Again, if we're guilty of overfitting the model to past results, he shouldn't be this high. He's projected to go late in the first round right now and could represent good value based on the overachieving history of other players from his school. Since I'm still apprehensive about the UCLA adjustment I have him 13th on my board.
[h3]Two Euros to watch[/h3]
My Euroleague translations say two players in this year's draft, Jonas Valanciunas and Nikola Mirotic, would be rotation players immediately if they came to the States. Valanciunas rated higher, with a translated PER of 14.70 (albeit in limited minutes) compare to 13.66 for Mirotic. Of perhaps more importance is that Mirotic is contractually bound to stay in Europe for a few more years. He'd be a top-10 pick on my board if it weren't for that; as it is, I've dropped him behind all the players I consider relatively safe bets.

[h4]Translated PER from Euroleague games[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jonas Valanciunas[/td][td]14.70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Giorgi Shermadini[/td][td]14.63[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nikola Mirotic[/td][td]13.66[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jan Vesely[/td][td]10.72[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bojan Bogdanovic[/td][td]10.40[/td][/tr][/table]

The other top European prospect, Czech forward Jan Vesely, doesn't grade out nearly as well. His first-year PER translates to 10.72; while one supposes he would improve further from that point given his youth and athleticism, it still makes him somewhere south of a sure thing. I've listed him as a top-20 pick based on potential and the general weakness of this draft, but taking him in the top five or 10 would be a mistake.

Two other internationals who warrant mentioning are Giorgi Shermadini and Bojan Bogdanovic. Shermadini, a 7-footer from the Republic of Georgia, forecasts as a sleeper with a 14.63 translated PER; however, he played in just 249 minutes, so we should take that with a grain of salt. He's an intriguing second-round play nonetheless. Bogdanovic is a more traditional second-round hopeful -- probably not good enough to play in the NBA now, but maybe he improves on somebody else's dime over the next few years.
[h3]No numbers here[/h3]
There are four international men of mystery in this draft who did not play in the Euroleague last season and thus have no translated stats for me to discuss: Bismack Biyombo, Enes Kanter, Donatas Motiejunas, and Davis Bertans.

Fortunately, I've seen all three at the Hoop Summit the past two seasons. Biyombo has scouts worried because he can't shoot at all, but he's a dominating defensive force in the paint; at the absolute worst he's going to be better than Ekpe Udoh. I slotted him 11th on my board, behind all the players the Draft Rater is really gung-ho about. He's going to be a rotation player based on defense and rebounding alone; the question is if he can finish enough plays at the basket to start.

Kanter is sort of the anti-Biyombo; He's not much of an athlete and will be suspect at the defensive end, but has such a high skill level offensively that he's going to score relatively easily. A good comparable might be fellow Turk Mehmet Okur, except Kanter is probably more skilled with the ball.

Motiejunas and Bertans are worthwhile choices later in the first round; each is high on skill but suspect in terms of strength and athleticism. An American who was last seen in Europe, Jeremy Tyler, falls into the same category.
[h3]Two point guards on the fence[/h3]
Brandon Knight could go as high as the third pick, while Jimmer Fredette is also a likely lottery selection. Draft Rater is pretty lukewarm on both of them. Knight rates at 10.02 and Fredette rates at 10.45; unheralded Norris Cole of Cleveland State has a better rating than both. Each projects to have a career, but probably as a third guard or marginal starter.

[h4]Draft Rater top-rated perimeter players[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Kyrie Irving[/td][td]15.14[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kawhi Leonard[/td][td]13.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kemba Walker[/td][td]12.75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyler Honeycutt[/td][td]12.56[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Hamilton[/td][td]11.90[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alec Burks[/td][td]11.87[/td][/tr][tr][td]Klay Thompson[/td][td]10.88[/td][/tr][tr][td]Norris Cole[/td][td]10.85[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jimmer Fredette[/td][td]10.45[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Singleton[/td][td]10.15[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Knight[/td][td]10.02[/td][/tr][tr][td]Darius Morris[/td][td]9.57[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Wanamaker[/td][td]9.57[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reggie Jackson[/td][td]9.45[/td][/tr][tr][td]Damian Saunders[/td][td]9.20[/td][/tr][/table]

In Knight's case, as a one-and-done we have to acknowledge that the system hasn't rated players like him as accurately, although it has done very well with guards as a whole. Fredette has a slightly better rating in a larger body of work.

Among point guards to rate between 10 and 11, the historical comps aren't great: One All-Star (Rajon Rondo), one really good player (Kyle Lowry), several halfway decent players (Luke Ridnour, .J. Augustin, Jerryd Bayless, Mario Chalmers), and some end-of-bench filler (Darius Washington, Marcus Banks).

I moved Knight up to 12th on my board to reflect that his one-and-done status may result in his being undervalued; on sheer rating he'd be in the 20s. Fredette I've left at 19 ... two spots behind Cole.
[h3]Guards who don't make the cut[/h3]
Probably the most suspect candidate, according to Draft Rater, is Marshon Brooks; his 7.88 rating was 27th among perimeter players. The Providence guard put up huge stats, but his average is hugely padded by two factors: First, the Friars played the fastest pace of any major Division I team; second, Brooks played nearly every minute of every game, averaging 36.5 per game -- remember, they play only 40 in college. Let all the air out and his numbers look a lot more ordinary -- his usage rate, which is his most alluring stat, ranks only ninth among prospects. Given his age (22 and five months) and his relative inefficiency, I'm not sure there's a ton to see here. Draft Rater sees him as a second rounder.

Kansas' Josh Selby rated even worse -- 7.69, 30th among perimeter players. I moved him up my board a bit to account for his one-and-done status, but his raw numbers were rather poor. In particular, a point guard with a -1.11 pure point rating should send talent evaluators shrieking. It was easily the worst of any point guard prospect, and worse than all but five wings as well.
[h3]The big man conundrum[/h3]
As I noted above, the Draft Rater has been really solid on perimeter players. On interior players, the results have been a bit more scattered. The problem has been "false positives." It has picked out all the guys who could play; it has just picked out a lot of other guys a long with them.

[h4]Top rated bigs, 2002-2011[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Kevin Love[/td][td]20.78[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Beasley[/td][td]18.36[/td][/tr][tr][td]Greg Oden[/td][td]17.69[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyrus Thomas[/td][td]17.25[/td][/tr][tr][td]Blake Griffin[/td][td]17.14[/td][/tr][tr][td]Andrew Bogut[/td][td]16.90[/td][/tr][tr][td]DeMarcus Cousins[/td][td]16.86[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Sweetney[/td][td]16.70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tristan Thompson [/td][td]16.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Curtis Borchardt[/td][td]16.01[/td][/tr][tr][td]Derrick Williams [/td][td]15.97[/td][/tr][tr][td]Greg Monroe[/td][td]15.77[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jared Jeffries[/td][td]15.65[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Bosh[/td][td]15.57[/td][/tr][tr][td]Derrick Favors[/td][td]15.51[/td][/tr][/table]

For that reason, we want to tread a little more carefully with the frontcourt players. However, two players in particular warrant our attention: Tristan Thompson and Derrick Williams.

Thompson and Williams had the highest ratings of any player in the Draft Rater this year, and while that doesn't come with the same assurances it does for Kyrie Irving, they both appear to be very solid prospects. Of the 13 players who rated at 15.5 or above in previous iterations, most were very successful as pros, and the ones that weren't tended to fail due to injuries and lack of professionalism -- issues that shouldn't be factors for Thompson and Williams. The one true miss was Jared Jeffries.

The other strong frontcourt prospect is Tobias Harris of Tennessee with a rating of 14.83. Of the 19 big men to rate between 13.5 and 15.5, a few were dogs, but two became All-Stars (Al Horford and Carlos Boozer) and most became quality players.

Things start getting more iffy at the next level, where we get into the Jon Leuers and Nikola Vucevicses. Also included in that group is unheralded Greg Smith from Fresno State, who could end up as a second-round steal.

[h4]Draft Rater: Top-rated big men[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][/tr][tr][td]Tristan Thompson[/td][td]16.21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Derrick Williams[/td][td]15.97[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tobias Harris[/td][td]14.83[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jon Leuer[/td][td]13.47[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nikola Vucevic[/td][td]13.32[/td][/tr][tr][td]Greg Smith[/td][td]12.93[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Williams[/td][td]11.87[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rick Jackson[/td][td]11.65[/td][/tr][tr][td]JaJuan Johnson[/td][td]11.54[/td][/tr][tr][td]Malcolm Thomas[/td][td]11.29[/td][/tr][tr][td]Marcus Morris[/td][td]10.93[/td][/tr][tr][td]Matt Howard[/td][td]10.49[/td][/tr][tr][td]Trey Thompkins[/td][td]10.44[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kenneth Faried[/td][td]10.25[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jamie Skeen[/td][td]10.17[/td][/tr][tr][td]Markieff Morris[/td][td]10.03[/td][/tr][tr][td]Justin Harper[/td][td]9.58[/td][/tr][/table]

Big men who rated between 12 and 14, as those three did, have been a mixed bag: Nearly all had careers and some were very good, but several were career backups and a few were just flat-out bad. Of the 29, two became All-Stars (LaMarcus Aldridge and David West), and 15 of the 29 became top-eight rotation players.

Similarly, those who rated between 11 and 12 -- as Malcolm Thomas, Jordan Williams, Rick Jackson and JaJuan Johnson do -- were very much a mixed bag. The takeaway here is to put more credence on scouting reports with players in this range; I've done that on my draft board. Lacking strong evidence one way or the other in this range, we'll go with the subjective opinions.

At the back end, two players who rate surprisingly weak are Marcus and Markieff Morris of Kansas. Historically, big men who rate between 10 and 11 are career backups. Of the 23 who did so, only David Lee became a star; five others became top-eight rotation players, and the rest were bench filler or didn't make the league at all. Based on that information, they're late first- or early second-round selections. On my board, I have the Morrises ahead of the other players in the 10-12 range, but it's tough to justify putting them ahead of similarly rated perimeter players.
[h3]Summing it up[/h3]
Which takes us to the final step -- my draft board. Based on all the information from Draft Rater, the projections of the Europeans, what I've seen in the past three Hoop Summits, and using the general consensus of draftniks as a tie-breaker with the close calls, here's how my board of the top 60 looks.

But first, if you're looking for the CliffsNotes version of my Draft Rater, here are the five big takeaways:

• Marshon Brooks, Josh Selby and the two Morrises appear overvalued.
• Brandon Knight, Jimmer Fredette and Jan Vesely are overvalued, but not as strongly.
• Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams are, rightly, the top two players on the board.
• Tristan Thompson and Tobias Harris are undervalued.
• Jon Leuer, Norris Cole and Greg Smith are your sleepers.

And now, my top 60 heading into Wednesday:
[h3]My board[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Brendan Maloney/US PresswireTristan Thompson rises all the way to No. 3 in the Draft Rater.
1. Kyrie Irving
2. Derrick Williams
3. Tristan Thompson
4. Jonas Valuncianas
5. Kawhi Leonard
6. Enes Kanter
7. Kemba Walker
8. Tobias Harris
9. Alec Burks
10. Jordan Hamilton
11. Bismack Biyombo
12. Brandon Knight
13. Tyler Honeycutt
14. Jon Leuer
15. Nikola Vucevic
16. Chris Singleton
17. Jan Vesely
18. Klay Thompson
19. Norris Cole
20. Iman Shumpert
21. Nikola Mirotic
22. Jimmer Fredette
23. Donatas Motiejunas
24. Greg Smith
25. Marcus Morris
26. JaJuan Johnson
27. Markieff Morris
28. Davis Bertans
29. Kenneth Faried
30. Jeremy Tyler

[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/David RichardNorris Cole gets a good bump up the boards in Draft Rater's book.
31. Jordan Williams
32. Bojan Bogdanovic
33. Darius Morris
34. Giorgi Shermadini
35. Reggie Jackson
36. Rick Jackson
37. Brad Wanamaker
38. Damian Saunders
39. Nolan Smith
40. Malcolm Thomas
41. Travis Leslie
42. Trey Thompkins
43. Malcolm Lee
44. Charles Jenkins
45. Cory Joseph
46. E'Twaun Moore
47. Josh Selby
48. Jacob Pullen
49. Justin Harper
50. Jimmy Butler
51. Matt Howard
52. Jamie Skeen
53. Jereme Richmond
54. Keith Benson
55. D.J. Kennedy
56. Marshon Brooks
57. Isaiah Thomas
58. Andrew Goudelouck
59. Lavoy Allen
60. Shelvin Mack

 

[kevin cleveland]

19. Norris Cole

 

[kevin cleveland]

19. Norris Cole

 

[big j 33]

4. Jonas Valuncianas

 

[big j 33]

4. Jonas Valuncianas

 

[RyGuy45]

Love the Kahn analysis. Dude is a unique guy I know that 

As a Wolves follower I put Kahn at "okay" so far. And not anywhere close to where the national media puts him because they can't critically think for themselves and they just google what the latest trends are and pile on the same guys no matter how pathetic they sound. This Rambis situation though is getting close to absurd to me.

Bottom line though David Kahn is not unlike most other NBA GM's.....you can rip almost all of them for their decisions. And he's as "smart" as his draft standing, which for him hasn't been that great as the Wolves continue to drop lottery positions based on their ping pong balls.

With that said he has to hit a home run this week and figure this out because this team has to start winning some games. The rest of the crap he was brought in for is about over.

 

[RyGuy45]

Love the Kahn analysis. Dude is a unique guy I know that 

As a Wolves follower I put Kahn at "okay" so far. And not anywhere close to where the national media puts him because they can't critically think for themselves and they just google what the latest trends are and pile on the same guys no matter how pathetic they sound. This Rambis situation though is getting close to absurd to me.

Bottom line though David Kahn is not unlike most other NBA GM's.....you can rip almost all of them for their decisions. And he's as "smart" as his draft standing, which for him hasn't been that great as the Wolves continue to drop lottery positions based on their ping pong balls.

With that said he has to hit a home run this week and figure this out because this team has to start winning some games. The rest of the crap he was brought in for is about over.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Saw the Tristan Thompson workout in toronto, looks like he gained mucle mass and cut off all the baby fat he was carrying, jumpers still not falling but looks far less broke, I don't think he's the most sure thing in the draft, but I think he can block shots and play defense so at worst I think he is the first big off the bench/borderline starter, Ie Amir Johnson.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Saw the Tristan Thompson workout in toronto, looks like he gained mucle mass and cut off all the baby fat he was carrying, jumpers still not falling but looks far less broke, I don't think he's the most sure thing in the draft, but I think he can block shots and play defense so at worst I think he is the first big off the bench/borderline starter, Ie Amir Johnson.

 

[pmatic]

Probably important to Bobcat, Buck and Warrior fans.

Who's the best shooting guard in the draft?

The consensus top shooting guard prospects in the 2011 NBA draft are Colorado sophomore Alec Burks and Washington State junior Klay Thompson.

So ... which is the better bet?

Burks generated 120 points per 100 possessions in 2010-11, while Thompson contributed 95. Both used 32 percent of their team's possessions, but Burks produced 118 points per 100 possessions while Thompson produced 109.

One differentiating element in the Burks/Thompson debate is age. In his second year with the Buffs, Burks, who doesn't turn 20 years old until after the draft, scored 20.5 points per game. Thompson scored about a point more per game but the junior is already 21 years old and has three college seasons under his belt.

[h4]Head-To-Head Comparison[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
[/th][th=""]Burks[/th][th=""]Thompson[/th][/tr][tr][td]Age[/td][td]X[/td][td] [/td][/tr][tr][td]Scoring efficiency[/td][td]X[/td][td] [/td][/tr][tr][td]3-point efficiency[/td][td] [/td][td]X[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ability to get to FT line[/td][td]X[/td][td] [/td][/tr][tr][td]Rebounding Rate[/td][td]X[/td][td] [/td][/tr][tr][td]Turnover Rate[/td][td]X[/td][td] [/td][/tr][/table]
Burks' ability to get to the free throw line also sets him apart. Nearly 31 percent of the points Burks scored at Colorado were from the charity stripe, while Thompson scored just 18 percent of his there. Burks' rebound rate was also much higher than Thompson's, and his turnover rate was much lower.

Burks had a better field-goal percentage (46.9 to 43.6), but Thompson’s real strength was as a deep shooter. In fact, in his career at Washington State, almost 44 percent of Thompson’s total field goal attempts were from 3. Burks, meanwhile, shot about 18 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc and connected less of the time (39 percent for Thompson to 32 for Burks).

Thompson’s game is predicated on shooting; he may be the best pure shooter in the draft. He shoots a lot of 3-pointers, and at a high rate. But Burks has a better effective field goal percentage.

Both have defensive issues, with neither getting a lot of steals or blocks to suggest that they will be significant contributors on that end.

Overall, Burks shows more to his game that will get him through down shooting days. This is not to say Thompson won’t be a good player. He deserves to be in the league, but he won't be the kind of player who will shoot efficiently enough to help a good team, except off the bench.
Link

Bobcats' resolve to draft a forward at No. 9 may be cracking 

One of the teams to keep an eye on in Thursday’s NBA draft is the Charlotte Bobcats, who own the Nos. 9 and 19 picks. They are unlikely to make a draft-day deal, a source says, but instead will choose to keep building by filling needs through the draft.

For much of the run-up to the draft, it seemed the Bobcats were likely to take a forward with the No. 9 pick and opt for a perimeter player with their later pick. That thinking may be cracking, though.

The Bobcats have shown significant interest in Kansas forward Marcus Morris, and he’s the pick at No. 9 in many mock drafts (including Sporting News’). One problem with that, though, is that Morris doesn’t quite envision himself the way the Bobcats do.

As Morris told Sporting News: “I am a small forward. A lot of people see me as a 4, but I don’t think that is my natural position. For me, my natural spot is at the 3. I know I can put it on the floor, I know I can shoot. I think the major question about me is whether I can guard the 3, and I think what people have to understand is that I never really got a chance to learn to guard the 3.

 

[pmatic]

Probably important to Bobcat, Buck and Warrior fans.

Who's the best shooting guard in the draft?

The consensus top shooting guard prospects in the 2011 NBA draft are Colorado sophomore Alec Burks and Washington State junior Klay Thompson.

So ... which is the better bet?

Burks generated 120 points per 100 possessions in 2010-11, while Thompson contributed 95. Both used 32 percent of their team's possessions, but Burks produced 118 points per 100 possessions while Thompson produced 109.

One differentiating element in the Burks/Thompson debate is age. In his second year with the Buffs, Burks, who doesn't turn 20 years old until after the draft, scored 20.5 points per game. Thompson scored about a point more per game but the junior is already 21 years old and has three college seasons under his belt.

[h4]Head-To-Head Comparison[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
[/th][th=""]Burks[/th][th=""]Thompson[/th][/tr][tr][td]Age[/td][td]X[/td][td] [/td][/tr][tr][td]Scoring efficiency[/td][td]X[/td][td] [/td][/tr][tr][td]3-point efficiency[/td][td] [/td][td]X[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ability to get to FT line[/td][td]X[/td][td] [/td][/tr][tr][td]Rebounding Rate[/td][td]X[/td][td] [/td][/tr][tr][td]Turnover Rate[/td][td]X[/td][td] [/td][/tr][/table]
Burks' ability to get to the free throw line also sets him apart. Nearly 31 percent of the points Burks scored at Colorado were from the charity stripe, while Thompson scored just 18 percent of his there. Burks' rebound rate was also much higher than Thompson's, and his turnover rate was much lower.

Burks had a better field-goal percentage (46.9 to 43.6), but Thompson’s real strength was as a deep shooter. In fact, in his career at Washington State, almost 44 percent of Thompson’s total field goal attempts were from 3. Burks, meanwhile, shot about 18 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc and connected less of the time (39 percent for Thompson to 32 for Burks).

Thompson’s game is predicated on shooting; he may be the best pure shooter in the draft. He shoots a lot of 3-pointers, and at a high rate. But Burks has a better effective field goal percentage.

Both have defensive issues, with neither getting a lot of steals or blocks to suggest that they will be significant contributors on that end.

Overall, Burks shows more to his game that will get him through down shooting days. This is not to say Thompson won’t be a good player. He deserves to be in the league, but he won't be the kind of player who will shoot efficiently enough to help a good team, except off the bench.
Link

Bobcats' resolve to draft a forward at No. 9 may be cracking 

One of the teams to keep an eye on in Thursday’s NBA draft is the Charlotte Bobcats, who own the Nos. 9 and 19 picks. They are unlikely to make a draft-day deal, a source says, but instead will choose to keep building by filling needs through the draft.

For much of the run-up to the draft, it seemed the Bobcats were likely to take a forward with the No. 9 pick and opt for a perimeter player with their later pick. That thinking may be cracking, though.

The Bobcats have shown significant interest in Kansas forward Marcus Morris, and he’s the pick at No. 9 in many mock drafts (including Sporting News’). One problem with that, though, is that Morris doesn’t quite envision himself the way the Bobcats do.

As Morris told Sporting News: “I am a small forward. A lot of people see me as a 4, but I don’t think that is my natural position. For me, my natural spot is at the 3. I know I can put it on the floor, I know I can shoot. I think the major question about me is whether I can guard the 3, and I think what people have to understand is that I never really got a chance to learn to guard the 3.

 

[ex carrabba fan]

You gotta be @$%!%%$% me 

The Warriors are so intrigued by Thompson that co-owner Joe Lacob, new coach Mark Jackson and the entire front office attended Friday’s workout.

Warriors general manager Larry Riley continues to dismiss rumors that guard Monta Ellis is being shopped and likes the idea of a three-guard rotation with Thompson, Ellis and Stephen Curry.

“He’s an offensive talent,

 

[ex carrabba fan]

You gotta be @$%!%%$% me 

The Warriors are so intrigued by Thompson that co-owner Joe Lacob, new coach Mark Jackson and the entire front office attended Friday’s workout.

Warriors general manager Larry Riley continues to dismiss rumors that guard Monta Ellis is being shopped and likes the idea of a three-guard rotation with Thompson, Ellis and Stephen Curry.

“He’s an offensive talent,

 

[airmaxbuckeye]

Cavs looking to get a third 1st round pick.

 

[airmaxbuckeye]

Cavs looking to get a third 1st round pick.

 

[ex carrabba fan]

Originally Posted by Mitchellicious

Originally Posted by DubA169

Originally Posted by ex carrabba fan


Stop it. Amare was never on the table for Hickson

he might of been you never know. Amare was on the trading block the last few years
suns knew they weren't going to give him a fully guaranteed contract and that there was a huge possibility that he would leave. who knows

i remember reading an article saying that lebron wanted Antoine Walker instead of Amare because he spread the floor more lol. If so that was sabotage on lebron's part and stupidity on the cavs org by listening to lebron so much like he's a GM

I hope you meant Antawn Jamison 

Steve Kerr has repeatedly said post Suns job, on air that Amare was never on the table. I believe him.

If you really believe LeBron said that he wants Jamison over Amare well, have at it.

 

[ex carrabba fan]

Originally Posted by Mitchellicious

Originally Posted by DubA169

Originally Posted by ex carrabba fan


Stop it. Amare was never on the table for Hickson

he might of been you never know. Amare was on the trading block the last few years
suns knew they weren't going to give him a fully guaranteed contract and that there was a huge possibility that he would leave. who knows

i remember reading an article saying that lebron wanted Antoine Walker instead of Amare because he spread the floor more lol. If so that was sabotage on lebron's part and stupidity on the cavs org by listening to lebron so much like he's a GM

I hope you meant Antawn Jamison 

Steve Kerr has repeatedly said post Suns job, on air that Amare was never on the table. I believe him.

If you really believe LeBron said that he wants Jamison over Amare well, have at it.

 

[skip0011]

Originally Posted by Essential1

Haven't read the thread, but just had this thought, don't know if someone else had it already..I think Cavs should take Derrick Williams at #1...

Reason being is that if you take Kyrie at #1.. It is likely that Williams then Kanter are #2

 

[skip0011]

Originally Posted by Essential1

Haven't read the thread, but just had this thought, don't know if someone else had it already..I think Cavs should take Derrick Williams at #1...

Reason being is that if you take Kyrie at #1.. It is likely that Williams then Kanter are #2

 

[caerus]

Originally Posted by airmaxpenny1

Originally Posted by DaComeUP

Originally Posted by Caerus

Tristan Thompson, possibly safest pick of draft?

Huh? Safe in terms of what? Tristan Thompson and safe are not 2 words that go together at all.

Why respond to Rook's stupidity?

I guarantee dude hasn't ever seen Alec Burks play more than once

You guys are so quick to throw shots

It's cool though.

Forgot this board is full of Pro Scouts...

 

[caerus]

Originally Posted by airmaxpenny1

Originally Posted by DaComeUP

Originally Posted by Caerus

Tristan Thompson, possibly safest pick of draft?

Huh? Safe in terms of what? Tristan Thompson and safe are not 2 words that go together at all.

Why respond to Rook's stupidity?

I guarantee dude hasn't ever seen Alec Burks play more than once

You guys are so quick to throw shots

It's cool though.

Forgot this board is full of Pro Scouts...

 

[ValarMorghulis]

DIE JewSeeJay DIEEEEEEE