- 360
- 10
- Joined
- Mar 17, 2004
damn Yuku sucks my bad
NEW YORK METS 2010 SEASON POST: Collins named New Manager
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by mez 0ne,
- Start date
- 1,768
- 10
- Joined
- Apr 2, 2003
Wow...when was the last time anyone shut out the Phillies over a 3 game series? That was incredible.
- 74,655
- 24,060
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
We're back.
- 1,132
- 27
- Joined
- Nov 23, 2008
BROOMS!!!! Mets are playing Amazin
- 11,980
- 18
- Joined
- Feb 21, 2005
Sweeeeeeeeeeppppppppppppppp
#*+% the Phillies. We go as Jose goes, always has been that way.
When is Murphy coming back, I would like to see him and Castillo in a platoon at second.
- 6,796
- 24
- Joined
- Jul 5, 2007
where are those smoking hat faces with the Phillies hats?... I don't seem to see any right now.
- 3,689
- 631
- Joined
- Jun 25, 2002
Time to get it done on the road?
First time Mets swept Philly in shutout fashion since 1969 I believe. Great omen.
First time Mets swept Philly in shutout fashion since 1969 I believe. Great omen.
- 20,249
- 14,780
- Joined
- Apr 1, 2008
Another shutout.. Loving it..
- 21,948
- 1,377
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2003
3 shutouts in a row for a sweep is pretty amazing stuff especially for an offense like the Phils, but I will not allow myself to get too overly excited because they [Mets] need to continue this on the road and vs lesser opponents. Brewers have ZERO pitching.
- 13,094
- 2,121
- Joined
- Jan 27, 2001
That was definitely impressive. Phils have had their offensive struggles recently. But in no way does that take away from what the Mets just did to them.
- 1,768
- 10
- Joined
- Apr 2, 2003
From the Mets ESPN NY Blog:
[h3]The WAR over Angel Pagan[/h3]
May, 28, 2010 11:29 AM ET
By Mark Simon
One of my colleagues in our research department, Ryan McCrystal, and I have had an ongoing conversation the last six months over the statistic Wins Above Replacement, known in most statistical circles as WAR.
Ryan sent me a note, referencing who the leaders in the NL All-Star race would be, if WAR was the determining factor.
He was disturbed to see that the NL's starting outfielders included Angel Pagan.
Yes, that's the same guy patrolling center field for the Mets.
Ryan's a smart guy (he's written a couple of pieces for our TMI blog worth checking out), so I felt his comments were worth a closer look.
Let's put the stats aside for a second. The thought of Pagan as an All-Star, all things considered, feels like a reach ... a rather significant one.
But let's take a closer look at why the numbers are making this suggestion.
For one thing, WAR is not like batting average. There are multiple versions. There's the version on Baseball-Reference.com, there's a version on Baseball Prospectus, and there's a version on Fangraphs.
In principle, each version of WAR is the same thing. It's a measurement that attempts to take multiple aspects of a player's contribution (hitting, defense, and in some cases, baserunning) and combine them into one all-encompassing number.
Sounds like the kind of stat that would be worth having, right?
Well, we're not quite all the way there yet. There's no full-fledged agreement on the proper way to smush everything together.
In practice, the methods of WAR calculation are different. Without getting into the specifics, there are differences of opinion on how to value certain aspects of offense and most notably, defense.
The version of WAR on Baseball-Reference.com uses a means of evaluation that places a premium on players' putout and assist totals. The other sites take those into account too, but do so differently.
Baseball-Reference's and Baseball Prospectus's version of WAR say Pagan is about 10 runs above a "replacement-level" player (think: Gary Matthews Jr. or someone of that ilk).
The Fangraphs version of defensive evaluation doesn't just look at putouts and assists. It looks at where balls were hit, and how difficult they were to get outs on (the stat is referred to as Ultimate Zone Rating, or UZR). It says Pagan is only about three runs above a "replacement-level" player.
Both give credit to Pagan for something he's doing well. Pagan has four assists this season. That, in the small sample that is 2010, is an excellent total. If he maintains that rate and gets this kind of playing time all season, he'll finish with 14 or 15 assists, and you'll probably have a totally different perception of him than you do now.
Keep in mind that there are some very good center fielders -- Matt Kemp among them -- who have not done what Pagan has done defensively. WAR knocks them down a peg for that.
Getting back to comparing the WARs, while Baseball-Reference.com's WAR had Pagan as the third-best NL outfielder as of Thursday, Fangraphs rated him eighth, and Baseball Prospectus charted him ninth-best.
So one version is basically saying he's an All-Star starter. Two other versions say he's having a pretty good season.
Is that a fair assessment?
Well, let's combine some stats that we think are important to determine that.
Pagan is hitting .296 with a .361 on-base percentage and a .426 slugging percentage. He doesn't hit for power. We know that. But he makes up for that in other ways. His .787 OPS sounds rather blah, but consider where he's playing most of his home games -- Citi Field.
Factor the ballpark in and Pagan is hitting a little more than 10 percent above what an average player would do. That's actually pretty good.
And remember this: Pagan is the kind of guy who maximizes his talent by doing the little things well. As my colleague in research, Katie Sharp, said, he's the kind of player for whom you have to look beyond the back of his baseball card to appreciate.
That starts with his baserunning, which is factored into some versions of WAR (the ones at Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference) more than others (Fangraphs)
* He's 8-for-11 in steal attempts (a stellar 73 percent).
* He's gone first-to-third seven times in 12 opportunities to do so. That's way above-average performance.
* And he's scored from second on a single four times in six opportunities (he held at third base twice). That's also way above-average performance.
Take all of the baserunning opportunities Pagan has had this season into account and you'll see he's taking the extra-base 55 percent of the time.
That's really good. Average players advance about 43 percent of the time. The difference between 43 percent and 55 percent is a big deal (he's not 12 percent better. You don't subtract one from the other). He's actually more than 20 percent better at baserunning than the average player.
We mentioned Pagan's defense already. The numbers say he's been pretty good, and as an added bonus, tell you he has a skill unlike a lot of other players (the assists).
So when you take an above-average batter, mix that with a way above-average baserunner, and combine that with an excellent (to this point) defender, what do you get?
You get someone about whom it's worth arguing, statistically or otherwise. Some might call Pagan an All-Star. Some might not. But he's at least someone worth checking out.
CLIFF NOTES: Angel Pagan's statistical analysis defensively, offensively and on the basepath shows he's a pretty solid player. Creating runs and opportunities while taking them away from the opposition.
[h3]The WAR over Angel Pagan[/h3]
May, 28, 2010 11:29 AM ET
By Mark Simon
One of my colleagues in our research department, Ryan McCrystal, and I have had an ongoing conversation the last six months over the statistic Wins Above Replacement, known in most statistical circles as WAR.
Ryan sent me a note, referencing who the leaders in the NL All-Star race would be, if WAR was the determining factor.
He was disturbed to see that the NL's starting outfielders included Angel Pagan.
Yes, that's the same guy patrolling center field for the Mets.
Ryan's a smart guy (he's written a couple of pieces for our TMI blog worth checking out), so I felt his comments were worth a closer look.
Let's put the stats aside for a second. The thought of Pagan as an All-Star, all things considered, feels like a reach ... a rather significant one.
But let's take a closer look at why the numbers are making this suggestion.
For one thing, WAR is not like batting average. There are multiple versions. There's the version on Baseball-Reference.com, there's a version on Baseball Prospectus, and there's a version on Fangraphs.
In principle, each version of WAR is the same thing. It's a measurement that attempts to take multiple aspects of a player's contribution (hitting, defense, and in some cases, baserunning) and combine them into one all-encompassing number.
Sounds like the kind of stat that would be worth having, right?
Well, we're not quite all the way there yet. There's no full-fledged agreement on the proper way to smush everything together.
In practice, the methods of WAR calculation are different. Without getting into the specifics, there are differences of opinion on how to value certain aspects of offense and most notably, defense.
The version of WAR on Baseball-Reference.com uses a means of evaluation that places a premium on players' putout and assist totals. The other sites take those into account too, but do so differently.
Baseball-Reference's and Baseball Prospectus's version of WAR say Pagan is about 10 runs above a "replacement-level" player (think: Gary Matthews Jr. or someone of that ilk).
The Fangraphs version of defensive evaluation doesn't just look at putouts and assists. It looks at where balls were hit, and how difficult they were to get outs on (the stat is referred to as Ultimate Zone Rating, or UZR). It says Pagan is only about three runs above a "replacement-level" player.
Both give credit to Pagan for something he's doing well. Pagan has four assists this season. That, in the small sample that is 2010, is an excellent total. If he maintains that rate and gets this kind of playing time all season, he'll finish with 14 or 15 assists, and you'll probably have a totally different perception of him than you do now.
Keep in mind that there are some very good center fielders -- Matt Kemp among them -- who have not done what Pagan has done defensively. WAR knocks them down a peg for that.
Getting back to comparing the WARs, while Baseball-Reference.com's WAR had Pagan as the third-best NL outfielder as of Thursday, Fangraphs rated him eighth, and Baseball Prospectus charted him ninth-best.
So one version is basically saying he's an All-Star starter. Two other versions say he's having a pretty good season.
Is that a fair assessment?
Well, let's combine some stats that we think are important to determine that.
Pagan is hitting .296 with a .361 on-base percentage and a .426 slugging percentage. He doesn't hit for power. We know that. But he makes up for that in other ways. His .787 OPS sounds rather blah, but consider where he's playing most of his home games -- Citi Field.
Factor the ballpark in and Pagan is hitting a little more than 10 percent above what an average player would do. That's actually pretty good.
And remember this: Pagan is the kind of guy who maximizes his talent by doing the little things well. As my colleague in research, Katie Sharp, said, he's the kind of player for whom you have to look beyond the back of his baseball card to appreciate.
That starts with his baserunning, which is factored into some versions of WAR (the ones at Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference) more than others (Fangraphs)
* He's 8-for-11 in steal attempts (a stellar 73 percent).
* He's gone first-to-third seven times in 12 opportunities to do so. That's way above-average performance.
* And he's scored from second on a single four times in six opportunities (he held at third base twice). That's also way above-average performance.
Take all of the baserunning opportunities Pagan has had this season into account and you'll see he's taking the extra-base 55 percent of the time.
That's really good. Average players advance about 43 percent of the time. The difference between 43 percent and 55 percent is a big deal (he's not 12 percent better. You don't subtract one from the other). He's actually more than 20 percent better at baserunning than the average player.
We mentioned Pagan's defense already. The numbers say he's been pretty good, and as an added bonus, tell you he has a skill unlike a lot of other players (the assists).
So when you take an above-average batter, mix that with a way above-average baserunner, and combine that with an excellent (to this point) defender, what do you get?
You get someone about whom it's worth arguing, statistically or otherwise. Some might call Pagan an All-Star. Some might not. But he's at least someone worth checking out.
CLIFF NOTES: Angel Pagan's statistical analysis defensively, offensively and on the basepath shows he's a pretty solid player. Creating runs and opportunities while taking them away from the opposition.
- 74,655
- 24,060
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
Real talk, I could have told you all that watching Angel play 3 games. Some of these stats and overanalyses are unnecessary.
- 1,768
- 10
- Joined
- Apr 2, 2003
True, but Angel's still somewhat of an unknown commodity so it's nice to see an outside source give a breakdown of his value.
I don't know how many of you read Metsblog, I visit it just about every day and it's a good resource for Mets info...but apparently Mike Francesa made some comments about Matt Cerrone, the main writer behind Metsblog. I RARELY listen to him aside from last week when I didn't have my iPod hooked up in my car and caught some of the interview with Prokhorov, "I have question for you. Where is Mad Dog?" He's just not entertaining to me since Mad Dog left and I don't value his opinion. Now he comes across as a jealous loser.
I don't know how many of you read Metsblog, I visit it just about every day and it's a good resource for Mets info...but apparently Mike Francesa made some comments about Matt Cerrone, the main writer behind Metsblog. I RARELY listen to him aside from last week when I didn't have my iPod hooked up in my car and caught some of the interview with Prokhorov, "I have question for you. Where is Mad Dog?" He's just not entertaining to me since Mad Dog left and I don't value his opinion. Now he comes across as a jealous loser.
- 74,655
- 24,060
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
Maddog is on Sirus, they got into a huge falling out a couple of years ago and went separate ways. I heard Francesca bring up MetsBlog as well, which came as a total surprise and unnecessary. I'm on that site at least three times a day, even when I'm not by the computer I check it on my phone.
Joe Beningo and the Schmooze > Francesca
Joe Beningo and the Schmooze > Francesca
- 6,796
- 24
- Joined
- Jul 5, 2007
Francesa is a pompous know-it-all... ever since Mad Dog left that show sucked.
- 21,948
- 1,377
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2003
Pagan is individually one of our more talented players, hope he can remain healthy for the long haul.
Once Beltran is actually cleared for baseball activities, it will take about 4-6 weeks AFTER that before he can play in an actual game, so give or take he'll be back by August. Hopefully the Mets will be in the race and add a # 2 starter, and we can have Pagan in RF with Franc as a late inning defensive replacement.
As for Pelf, if he can cut down on those balls/walks just slightly, he will develop into an ace.
As for tonight, Brewers have just 6 home wins and have ZERO pitching, but Gallardo is still one of those guys who can have a good game so this first win is key.
Once Beltran is actually cleared for baseball activities, it will take about 4-6 weeks AFTER that before he can play in an actual game, so give or take he'll be back by August. Hopefully the Mets will be in the race and add a # 2 starter, and we can have Pagan in RF with Franc as a late inning defensive replacement.
As for Pelf, if he can cut down on those balls/walks just slightly, he will develop into an ace.
As for tonight, Brewers have just 6 home wins and have ZERO pitching, but Gallardo is still one of those guys who can have a good game so this first win is key.
- 2,654
- 57
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2007
- 2,654
- 57
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2007
- 74,655
- 24,060
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
I'm not blaming Igarashi or Manuel, I'm blaming the entire Mets offense, that's Jose Reyes, David Wright, Jason Bay, Angel Pagan and Ike Davis for striking out looking in key spots that would have put us ahead. Inexcusable.Originally Posted by Rudemiester
@ Manuel. Everyone knows and can clearly see that Igarishi is not all the way back yet but yet you use him after a brilliant outing by Santana. THIS is the $#!& that gets me mad....How many games have the stupid bullpen moves costed this guy Santana...
- 21,948
- 1,377
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2003
Gallardo pitches his damn *+% off though, jesus he had me shaking my head at those pitch locations. Fastball count he would throw a viuscious curve inside to lefties and a slider to righties.
He's owned us, that's why this 1st game was key. Last thing I wanted to see was Santana out there up to 120-130 pitches after 9 innings. The onyl move I disagreed with is taking Feliciano out for the righties, he is our best reliever.
Offense was 1-7 with RISP, Gallardo was tough and got a lot of double play breaks.
He's owned us, that's why this 1st game was key. Last thing I wanted to see was Santana out there up to 120-130 pitches after 9 innings. The onyl move I disagreed with is taking Feliciano out for the righties, he is our best reliever.
Offense was 1-7 with RISP, Gallardo was tough and got a lot of double play breaks.
- 8,406
- 41
- Joined
- Dec 1, 2009
Yeah, its like dudes 4th 10K game.
- 74,655
- 24,060
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
Yeah I'm not underestimating Gallardo's ability. He did a fantastic job manipulating counts and situations, but I just cannot get over how many looking strike 3 calls we had. And I know that's Gallardo's strongest point (he leads the majors in backward k's), but our big bats need to swing at those pitches and at the least, fight them off. I hate the backwards K and it killed us last night.
On to today's game...I have no confidence in Nieve. I think we'll see a 9-8, 11-13 type game tonight.
On to today's game...I have no confidence in Nieve. I think we'll see a 9-8, 11-13 type game tonight.
- 74,655
- 24,060
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2008
And this dude had the balls to say that he was going to stay in the rotation. Nieve is a %%!%+$$ bum. He hasn't even pitched well in relief since the first three weeks of the year.
- 1,132
- 27
- Joined
- Nov 23, 2008
OUCH another 2 out HR.... Nieve belongs in the pen not in the rotation
