Kershaw is the great X factor
Wednesday, October 14, 2009 |
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The first inning that
Clayton Kershaw threw in the major leagues
lasted 32 pitches. He was 20 years old at the time, working too quickly, and learning an important lesson right away: If you throw the ball down the middle of the plate in the major leagues, you're not necessarily going to beat the hitters the way you would in the minors.
No, major league hitters will usually foul off a pitch down the middle, or drive it, and in that first inning,
Albert Pujols mashed a double against Kershaw, driving in the first run the lefty allowed in the big leagues.
But that first inning also hinted at Kershaw's remarkable talent, because all three of the outs he registered came on strikeouts. He demonstrated then, as now, that on any given day, he has the ability to shut down any hitter in any lineup, or any collection of hitters. And in the 17 months since his debut, Kershaw has developed swiftly, learning, and making adjustments.
This is why Kershaw is the great X factor in this series against the Phillies, and perhaps in this entire postseason. Forget his 8-8 win-loss record -- he is capable of being the best pitcher in the next two rounds. "He gets it now," said one veteran evaluator, who has seen Kershaw pitch in person recently. "He has just matured. Nothing really surprises him anymore. He knows what to expect and he embraces it, and there is a comfort zone there that wasn't before."
He has made tangible changes, as well, sharpening his curveball. And gradually, his command of his fastball has improved. Millimeter by millimeter, he has taken his fastball to the corners of the strike zone, rather than just firing it over the middle of the plate, and the stats of opposing hitters reflect how tough he can be.
Some examples:
- Hitters batted .200 against him, the lowest average against any starting pitcher (100 innings pitched minimum) in either league.
- Hitters generated a slugging percentage of .282 against Kershaw, the lowest among all pitchers in the majors (100 IP minimum).
- The OPS against Kershaw: .588, which is the third-lowest (100 IP minimum).
- Kershaw allowed just 7 homers.
Kershaw's greatest challenge, in pitching against the extraordinarily patient veterans of the Phillies, is to be efficient, to not get into a situation in which he throws 50 pitches in the first two innings and is out of the game sometime in the fifth inning. The left-hander averages 17.7 pitches per inning, a very high rate.
"The efficiency question is probably the same [for all of the Dodgers' starters]," said the evaluator.
When he gets into a jam now, you will see Kershaw do something he didn't do in those first innings in the big leagues. He'll step back from the rubber, take some deep breaths and assess the situation -- and then get back to work.
---
These are Kershaw's regular-season numbers against the Phillies' hitters, who managed only one homer in 60 at-bats:
Phillies Lineup versus Kershaw | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Hitter | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
Jimmy Rollins | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .273 | .333 | .364 | .697 |
Jayson Werth | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .300 | .364 | .300 | .664 |
Chase Utley | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | .300 | .417 | .700 | 1.117 |
Shane Victorino | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .125 | .125 | .125 | .250 |
Ryan Howard | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | .125 | .333 | .250 | .583 |
Raul Ibanez | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | .400 | .500 | .800 | 1.300 |
Pedro Feliz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .500 | .667 | .750 | 1.417 |
Carlos Ruiz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .000 | .500 | .000 | .500 |
Ben Francisco | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | .333 |
Totals | 60 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 15 | .250 | .378 | .400 | .778 |
[h3]Around the playoffs[/h3]
Kershaw is one of
a bunch of lefties whom the Dodgers will throw at the core left-handers in the Phillies' lineup, Ben Bolch writes. Joe Torre says he doesn't anticipate managing
beyond the 2010 season. He has made similar comments through the years, only to re-sign; we'll see if he walks away this time.
Confidence gives
the Phillies an edge when they play, writes Andy Martino. The Phillies are already in
rare company, writes Phil Sheridan. Flying from Colorado to Los Angeles, the Phillies
made a pit stop in Philadelphia.
Fans have embraced
Raul Ibanez's
blue-collar style.
Angels-Yankees
It appears that the Angels will
go with a lefty in Game 1 or Game 2, Jim Peltz and Mike DiGiovanna write.
Chone Figgins is extremely dangerous, and the Yankees
know this first-hand. Closers
have struggled this postseason, writes Mark Whicker.
The Yankees' decision to go with a three-man rotation -- which is all but locked in -- is a no-brainer, in light of the fact that
CC Sabathia has been well-rested down the stretch, and given his strong history last year in pitching on short rest.
Johnny Damon is struggling, but
Joe Girardi is
keeping the faith, writes Mark Feinsand. Girardi has some ideas
for slowing down the Angels, writes Mark Hale. Ken Davidoff thinks the Yankees will win the series
in seven games.
• Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has long been friends with Kevin Towers, who was recently released from his duties as GM of the Padres, and given that relationship, there would appear to be excellent odds that Towers will land with the Yankees as a special assistant sometime in the months ahead. Towers could serve as an evaluator for Cashman, taking on responsibilities like looking for pitching -- which is considered to be Towers' specialty -- or scouting minor leaguers, or helping to prepare the Yankees as they consider options before the trade deadline.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Heard this: There are major changes looming within the structure of the Dodgers' organization, changes that will be dictated by the direction that ownership takes in the months ahead. One of the first moves: Charles Steinberg, who had come to the Dodgers from the Red Sox, is out the door, and headed back to Boston.
[h4]Mailbag[/h4]I'm going to dip into the mailbag more often, so please be involved. On occasion, I'll ask team officials or GMs the questions you send in. So send questions or start well-reasoned debates, and I'll try to get to them.
The mailbag
2. The Reds are
not going to get Tony La Russa or Dave Duncan, writes Hal McCoy.
3. Dave Duncan tells Joe Strauss he
likely will return to the Cardinals, if Tony La Russa does.
4. Some
major decisions loom for the Rockies, writes Troy Renck.
5. The Giants
locked up Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy, but the Giants probably
don't have a lot of leeway to make big moves, writes Ray Ratto.
6. Former Mets catcher Gary Carter has been
hired to coach at Palm Beach Atlantic University, writes Rachel Ullrich.
7. The Astros
fired club icon Jose Cruz from the coaching staff, and Cruz was stunned by the decision.
8. Al Pedrique and Dave Clark will be the first through the door as the Astros
interview managerial candidates, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz.
9. The Braves lost their
scouting director to the
Washington Nationals, writes David O'Brien.
10. The Jays hired a
new special assistant, Jeremy Sandler writes. The Jays want to
return to basics, writes Bob Elliott.
11. The Diamondbacks are
not expected to make major changes, writes Nick Piecoro.
12. Oakland is bringing back its
coaching staff.
13. The Minneapolis Star Tribune ponders
the trade value of
Joe Nathan.
14. The Indians are working the phones in their
search for a manager.
15. The Red Sox haven't
made a lot of progress with
Jason Bay in negotiations, writes Sean McAdam.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1.
Mike MacDougal, the Nationals closer, had
hip surgery, Ben Goessling writes.
2. Mariners catcher
Rob Johnson faces
multiple surgeries.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• A lieutenant colonel will be rooting
for his Angels, Bill Shaikin writes.
• The Hall of Fame
came asking for
Kevin Kouzmanoff's glove, writes Bill Center.
• October can be
a cruel month, writes Bruce Jenkins.
• The Red Sox are on
the same page with
Daisuke Matsuzaka, finally, writes Nick Cafardo.
• A Mets prospect is on
the fast track, writes Adam Rubin.
•
Rocco Baldelli's time with the Red Sox
could be over.
• The Mariners think that reliever Phillippe Aumont
has great makeup, Geoff Baker writes. He pitched in the WBC, and he was one of those guys whose high-power talent jumped out at you when you saw him on the mound.
• The Mariners' TV ratings were up a whopping
25 percent this year, writes Larry Stone.
• The Indians' TV ratings
plummeted, writes Paul Hoynes.
• A new film
examines Josh Gibson, writes Sean Hamill.
• I am a Vikings fan and I would love to see this: They should make a deal with the Bills for Terrell Owens. He would give them another weapon, working out of the slot, and he would give them some veteran depth at wide receiver. They are one Bernard Berrian injury away from have some issues at wide receiver, because while the other receivers are talented, they are very inexperienced.
• A bunch of Georgians have committed to play at Vanderbilt
next year. A Commodores running back was
suspended indefinitely.
• A happy
99th birthday to John Wooden, writes Jill Painter