Official 2012 San Francisco 49ers Offseason Thread

[dland24]

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.

http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936

When is this nightmare going to end?

 

[kingjames23]

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.



http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936



When is this nightmare going to end?

All you guys acting like you know more about QBs than Harbaugh. I'll trust Harbaugh's opinion on QBs. His track record speaks for itself.

If Alex sucks **** again then we're back in the top 10 taking Luck, Barkley, Landry who are all better than any QB in this year's draft.

Ya'll are so cynical.

 

[kingjames23]

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.



http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936



When is this nightmare going to end?

All you guys acting like you know more about QBs than Harbaugh. I'll trust Harbaugh's opinion on QBs. His track record speaks for itself.

If Alex sucks **** again then we're back in the top 10 taking Luck, Barkley, Landry who are all better than any QB in this year's draft.

Ya'll are so cynical.

 

[acidicality]

I don't want Alex here as much as the next guy. But...if we have to go with him, so be it. Especially with the lockout the circumstances are a little different. I think Harbaugh is just leaving all options open....and that's a wise thing to do.


In other news, the 49ers seem to be pretty high on Gabbert, Harbaugh recruited him when he was at Stanford so he's a definite possibility. Personally, I prefer Kaepernick in round 2.

 

[acidicality]

I don't want Alex here as much as the next guy. But...if we have to go with him, so be it. Especially with the lockout the circumstances are a little different. I think Harbaugh is just leaving all options open....and that's a wise thing to do.


In other news, the 49ers seem to be pretty high on Gabbert, Harbaugh recruited him when he was at Stanford so he's a definite possibility. Personally, I prefer Kaepernick in round 2.

 

[dland24]

Originally Posted by KingJames23

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.



http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936



When is this nightmare going to end?

All you guys acting like you know more about QBs than Harbaugh. I'll trust Harbaugh's opinion on QBs. His track record speaks for itself.

If Alex sucks **** again then we're back in the top 10 taking Luck, Barkley, Landry who are all better than any QB in this year's draft.

Ya'll are so cynical.

What exactly do you know about Harbaugh's track record that speaks for itself?  His days at Stanford?  His one year of NFL experience as  QB coach?  Just curious. 

(And just FTR, you say that we dont know more about QBs that Harbaugh....fine, I agree.  But EVERYONE said that Singletary didnt know a god damn thing about QBs, yet he had the same opinion as Harbaugh does.  Cant have it both ways bro)

 

[dland24]

Originally Posted by KingJames23

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.



http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936



When is this nightmare going to end?

All you guys acting like you know more about QBs than Harbaugh. I'll trust Harbaugh's opinion on QBs. His track record speaks for itself.

If Alex sucks **** again then we're back in the top 10 taking Luck, Barkley, Landry who are all better than any QB in this year's draft.

Ya'll are so cynical.

What exactly do you know about Harbaugh's track record that speaks for itself?  His days at Stanford?  His one year of NFL experience as  QB coach?  Just curious. 

(And just FTR, you say that we dont know more about QBs that Harbaugh....fine, I agree.  But EVERYONE said that Singletary didnt know a god damn thing about QBs, yet he had the same opinion as Harbaugh does.  Cant have it both ways bro)

 

[kwh3]

Originally Posted by dland24

Originally Posted by KingJames23

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.



http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936



When is this nightmare going to end?

All you guys acting like you know more about QBs than Harbaugh. I'll trust Harbaugh's opinion on QBs. His track record speaks for itself.

If Alex sucks **** again then we're back in the top 10 taking Luck, Barkley, Landry who are all better than any QB in this year's draft.

Ya'll are so cynical.

What exactly do you know about Harbaugh's track record that speaks for itself?  His days at Stanford?  His one year of NFL experience as  QB coach?  Just curious. 

(And just FTR, you say that we dont know more about QBs that Harbaugh....fine, I agree.  But EVERYONE said that Singletary didnt know a god damn thing about QBs, yet he had the same opinion as Harbaugh does.  Cant have it both ways bro)

Just because Singletary liked Alex Smith doesn't mean Smith can't be a viable quaterback. To say someone doesn't know a thing about QBs does not mean he is always 100% wrong in his assessment. Given the climate of the offseason, if Harbaugh thinks Smith is the best option available, though I haven't see anything from Smith to show that he is, than I would trust opinion of the man that has spent time playing and coaching the position at a high level.

 

[kwh3]

Originally Posted by dland24

Originally Posted by KingJames23

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.



http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936



When is this nightmare going to end?

All you guys acting like you know more about QBs than Harbaugh. I'll trust Harbaugh's opinion on QBs. His track record speaks for itself.

If Alex sucks **** again then we're back in the top 10 taking Luck, Barkley, Landry who are all better than any QB in this year's draft.

Ya'll are so cynical.

What exactly do you know about Harbaugh's track record that speaks for itself?  His days at Stanford?  His one year of NFL experience as  QB coach?  Just curious. 

(And just FTR, you say that we dont know more about QBs that Harbaugh....fine, I agree.  But EVERYONE said that Singletary didnt know a god damn thing about QBs, yet he had the same opinion as Harbaugh does.  Cant have it both ways bro)

Just because Singletary liked Alex Smith doesn't mean Smith can't be a viable quaterback. To say someone doesn't know a thing about QBs does not mean he is always 100% wrong in his assessment. Given the climate of the offseason, if Harbaugh thinks Smith is the best option available, though I haven't see anything from Smith to show that he is, than I would trust opinion of the man that has spent time playing and coaching the position at a high level.

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

 

[kingjames23]

Originally Posted by dland24

Originally Posted by KingJames23

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.





http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936





When is this nightmare going to end?

All you guys acting like you know more about QBs than Harbaugh. I'll trust Harbaugh's opinion on QBs. His track record speaks for itself.



If Alex sucks **** again then we're back in the top 10 taking Luck, Barkley, Landry who are all better than any QB in this year's draft.



Ya'll are so cynical.

What exactly do you know about Harbaugh's track record that speaks for itself?  His days at Stanford?  His one year of NFL experience as  QB coach?  Just curious. 

(And just FTR, you say that we dont know more about QBs that Harbaugh....fine, I agree.  But EVERYONE said that Singletary didnt know a god damn thing about QBs, yet he had the same opinion as Harbaugh does.  Cant have it both ways bro)

Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck. Look at what he did for those guys. His evaluations of Romo, Harrington, Garrard were dead on.

Your logic about Sing and Harbaugh is flawed. You can get the right answer for something but don't know why it's right.
Person A: Gets the correct answer and can explain why that answer is correct
Person B: Gets the correct answer but cannot justify their answer

Is Person B as knowledgeable as Person A?

 

[kingjames23]

Originally Posted by dland24

Originally Posted by KingJames23

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.





http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936





When is this nightmare going to end?

All you guys acting like you know more about QBs than Harbaugh. I'll trust Harbaugh's opinion on QBs. His track record speaks for itself.



If Alex sucks **** again then we're back in the top 10 taking Luck, Barkley, Landry who are all better than any QB in this year's draft.



Ya'll are so cynical.

What exactly do you know about Harbaugh's track record that speaks for itself?  His days at Stanford?  His one year of NFL experience as  QB coach?  Just curious. 

(And just FTR, you say that we dont know more about QBs that Harbaugh....fine, I agree.  But EVERYONE said that Singletary didnt know a god damn thing about QBs, yet he had the same opinion as Harbaugh does.  Cant have it both ways bro)

Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck. Look at what he did for those guys. His evaluations of Romo, Harrington, Garrard were dead on.

Your logic about Sing and Harbaugh is flawed. You can get the right answer for something but don't know why it's right.
Person A: Gets the correct answer and can explain why that answer is correct
Person B: Gets the correct answer but cannot justify their answer

Is Person B as knowledgeable as Person A?

 

[dland24]

Originally Posted by KingJames23

Originally Posted by dland24

Originally Posted by KingJames23

All you guys acting like you know more about QBs than Harbaugh. I'll trust Harbaugh's opinion on QBs. His track record speaks for itself.



If Alex sucks **** again then we're back in the top 10 taking Luck, Barkley, Landry who are all better than any QB in this year's draft.



Ya'll are so cynical.

What exactly do you know about Harbaugh's track record that speaks for itself?  His days at Stanford?  His one year of NFL experience as  QB coach?  Just curious. 

(And just FTR, you say that we dont know more about QBs that Harbaugh....fine, I agree.  But EVERYONE said that Singletary didnt know a god damn thing about QBs, yet he had the same opinion as Harbaugh does.  Cant have it both ways bro)

Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck. Look at what he did for those guys. His evaluations of Romo, Harrington, Garrard were dead on.

Your logic about Sing and Harbaugh is flawed. You can get the right answer for something but don't know why it's right.
Person A: Gets the correct answer and can explain why that answer is correct
Person B: Gets the correct answer but cannot justify their answer

Is Person B as knowledgeable as Person A?

What exactly did Harbaugh do for Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck?  Josh Johnson hasnt really had much of an opportunity in the NFL, so there is no measurable success that you can credit Harbaugh for.  And Luck?  He was a highly recruited QB out of high school, and he has yet to play a snap in the NFL.  So where is this proven track record you speak of?

Just to be clear, I am NOT anti-Harbaugh or have expectations of failure.  I just like to hold my expectations in check.  Harbaugh has never accomplished anything on the NFL level, yet people are so quick to anoint him as the next Bill Walsh.  I hope he will be a great coach and I think he knows what he is talking about.  But his high praise of Alex Smith makes me wonder.

 

[dland24]

Originally Posted by KingJames23

Originally Posted by dland24

Originally Posted by KingJames23

All you guys acting like you know more about QBs than Harbaugh. I'll trust Harbaugh's opinion on QBs. His track record speaks for itself.



If Alex sucks **** again then we're back in the top 10 taking Luck, Barkley, Landry who are all better than any QB in this year's draft.



Ya'll are so cynical.

What exactly do you know about Harbaugh's track record that speaks for itself?  His days at Stanford?  His one year of NFL experience as  QB coach?  Just curious. 

(And just FTR, you say that we dont know more about QBs that Harbaugh....fine, I agree.  But EVERYONE said that Singletary didnt know a god damn thing about QBs, yet he had the same opinion as Harbaugh does.  Cant have it both ways bro)

Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck. Look at what he did for those guys. His evaluations of Romo, Harrington, Garrard were dead on.

Your logic about Sing and Harbaugh is flawed. You can get the right answer for something but don't know why it's right.
Person A: Gets the correct answer and can explain why that answer is correct
Person B: Gets the correct answer but cannot justify their answer

Is Person B as knowledgeable as Person A?

What exactly did Harbaugh do for Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck?  Josh Johnson hasnt really had much of an opportunity in the NFL, so there is no measurable success that you can credit Harbaugh for.  And Luck?  He was a highly recruited QB out of high school, and he has yet to play a snap in the NFL.  So where is this proven track record you speak of?

Just to be clear, I am NOT anti-Harbaugh or have expectations of failure.  I just like to hold my expectations in check.  Harbaugh has never accomplished anything on the NFL level, yet people are so quick to anoint him as the next Bill Walsh.  I hope he will be a great coach and I think he knows what he is talking about.  But his high praise of Alex Smith makes me wonder.

 

[kingjames23]

Originally Posted by dland24

What exactly did Harbaugh do for Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck?  Josh Johnson hasnt really had much of an opportunity in the NFL, so there is no measurable success that you can credit Harbaugh for.  And Luck?  He was a highly recruited QB out of high school, and he has yet to play a snap in the NFL.  So where is this proven track record you speak of?

What did he do for Luck and Johnson? You've got to be $*%!%@# kidding me. If you're seriously asking that, my response won't even matter. I'm done.

 

[kingjames23]

Originally Posted by dland24

What exactly did Harbaugh do for Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck?  Josh Johnson hasnt really had much of an opportunity in the NFL, so there is no measurable success that you can credit Harbaugh for.  And Luck?  He was a highly recruited QB out of high school, and he has yet to play a snap in the NFL.  So where is this proven track record you speak of?

What did he do for Luck and Johnson? You've got to be $*%!%@# kidding me. If you're seriously asking that, my response won't even matter. I'm done.

 

[deuce king]

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.

http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936

When is this nightmare going to end?

Agreed.  Everytime I enter this thread and see his name I get depressed.  I just want him gone from the team permanently!!  It's BEEN time to move on.

  

 

[deuce king]

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.

http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936

When is this nightmare going to end?

Agreed.  Everytime I enter this thread and see his name I get depressed.  I just want him gone from the team permanently!!  It's BEEN time to move on.

  

 

[ThaxbyChamblis]

Long read on two of the QB's discussed lately, Ponder and Kaepernick:

Kaepernick:

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/hyde/blog/2011/03/draft_winds.html

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler [+]

Spoiler

Dave Hyde


<< Previous entry: Hyde5: Time to see if Bibby can play defense

>> Next entry: Hyde5: Is Bosh the key to Heat's success?

[h2]Draft Winds: Breaking down QB Colin Kaepernick[/h2]

By Dave Hyde March 15, 2011 10:26 AM

Draft Winds is an impeccably researched, refreshingly thorough and immeasurably long look at the upcoming draft through the prism of the Dolphins by Simon Clancy, Chris Kouffman and Richard Lines of UniversalDraft.com . You can follow them on Twitter at @siclancy and @ckparrot.

Hello again. Many thanks for continuing to support us and reading our weekly offerings. Whilst the issues with the CBA look set for the court room, we’re full steam ahead for the end of April. And for the next two weeks we’re going to look very hard at two quarterbacks we think the Dolphins will be showing a lot of interest in. We know that the coaching staff has met and interviewed both since the start of this Draft run and we’re going to look critically and analytically at what they offered at the college level and how we think that translates to the 2011 Dolphins if indeed they decide that drafting a passer high is the plan.

Next week we’re going to discuss one of the fastest climbing quarterbacks in the 2011 selection meeting, Florida State’s Christian Ponder who it seems could well end up in the first round and perhaps even in the middle of the first if what we’re hearing is to be believed. But this week it’s Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick and Chris has been doing the heavy lifting with the senior from the desert.

The Colin Kaepernick file:

The fifth-year senior and four-year starter is one of the more intriguing prospects in this year's quarterbacks class. Not highly recruited coming out of high school because he was figured to be a baseball star, he redshirted his first season at Nevada but went on to become the only player in NCAA history to rush for 4,000+ yards while also passing for 10,000+ yards. Those hailing from the Bill Parcells school of profile drafting will appreciate Kaepernick's experience level (about 49 games with significant playing time), the fact that he's a college graduate, and the fact that he's a winner (32 wins, including a 13-1 record as a senior).

Combining with his unique production, his experience level, and winning record at Nevada, is an extremely fascinating blend of size and physical tools. Measuring in at just under 6'5" and 233 lbs, Colin ran in the low 4.5's at the NFL Combine, with a 32.5" vertical, 4.18 second short shuttle and 6.85 second cone drill. Those numbers would be considered good on a wide receiver prospect, let alone a quarterback.

He carries a howitzer on his shoulders that officially clocked the fastest ball velocity at the Combine, at 59 mph on the radar gun. And, if all that doesn't intrigue you enough, he has a squeaky clean record off the field and is by all accounts a hard working, humble, good-natured and well-grounded kid.

So, what's the catch? The catch is that, not unlike Tim Tebow a year ago, Colin has some funky throwing mechanics that may not translate at the next level. Also like Tebow, he comes from a very non-pro-style offense, and will have to work heavily on his pro timing, anticipation, and field vision. Essentially, he's a quarterback that you have to build from the ground up, even though he's already a four-year starter with 1,200+ college throws under his belt.

Colin has a lanky build, with extremely long arms, long legs and big feet. There is some school of thought that the best combination for a quarterback is to have a tall guy with short arms, which keeps his delivery nice and short. Kaepernick can fall into taking long strides into his throws and generating the necessary torque with the ball in a wide orbit away from his core.

I know from talking to Richard here at Universal that he believes that his stride is likely going to keep him from ever being a highly accurate quarterback much like a Donavan McNabb. Kaepernick has a loop like Tebow did and I believe he is even more prone than Tebow to giving away his intended target with his head, shoulders and motion. The tremendous velocity he achieves on intermediate throws helps to counter-balance some of the length in his targeting and drawback, but then his shorter touch passes can fall victim to remnants of the same motion, with the delivery looking too long and drawn out, giving defenders time to get a jump on the receiver and prevent yards after the catch.

If one were to watch closely his games against Boise State and Boston College, two of the more respectable defenses he faced this season, one would clearly see defenders getting a little bit of a jump on the ball due to Colin's build-up and delivery. Additionally, he can get some balls batted down at the line when kept in the pocket, because he gives defensive linemen a little extra time to react to the ball.

Nevada did not ask Kaepernick to become a true pocket passer. I found that only about 2 out of 5 of his pass attempts in the games I graded involved him sitting in the pocket and delivering. For perspective on this, both Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett sat in the pocket and delivered the football a higher percentage of their throws than Colin, and Newton's percentage was much closer to Mallett's than it was Kaepernick's. About 1 in 3 of Colin's pass attempts were designed roll-outs or screen passes. This was a much higher portion (a difference of +10%) of Kaepernick's passing than that of Cam Newton, who is more often accused of playing out of a gimmick offense where decision-making is minimized by screens and roll-outs. I didn't see Colin coming under as much pressure as guys like Newton and Ryan Mallett, as Nevada's playbook with all of the screen passes and roll-outs tended to keep defenders out of Kaepernick's face.

He is at his absolute best when moving out of the pocket, creating better angles and sight lines, and throwing the ball with impressive accuracy on the run. However, I did not necessarily find that Colin beat the blitz or dealt with pressure consistently. Boise State blitzed him very aggressively while Boston College sat back and played his eyes more. Both teams occasionally dropped an extra defender or two into coverage to try and confuse him.

What I found is on these plays where defenses tried to put pressure on the quarterback by blitzing him or by surprising him with extra defenders in coverage, Colin was just 13 of 26 passing for 153 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception. He had 2 rushes for 20 yards with a TD, but also a lost fumble, and was sacked 2 times for -19 yards in losses. The touchdown he got during this subset of plays was the scramble against Boise State where a blitzing corner lost contain, and Colin spun outside of him. It was an excellent play by Colin, but you wonder if he will be able to do that sort of thing against pro athletes like Vontae Davis.

Overall, a net 5.1 yards per play with 1 TD and 2 turnovers against two of the only good defenses his Nevada Wolfpack faced this year, has to be concerning when it comes to reading complicated blitz and drop defenses, and beating them. It definitely lends credibility to the theory that his extended throwing motion impacts the versatility of his arm, the ability to flick the ball to a short receiving option without tipping off the defense. It also shows that Nevada's offense was so simplistic, relying so heavily on roll-outs and simplified reads, that he doesn't necessarily read the blitz pre-snap very well to where he can hit the defense where it'll hurt.

Another thing you notice the more you watch him under fire by blitzing and pressure is that his speed and athleticism is a very long striding speed that must be built up with at least 15 to 20 yards of space. He lacks a lot of the quick twitch elusiveness and lower body explosion that one might expect out of a guy that runs in the low 4.5's as he does. This translates to elusiveness in the pocket and in short spaces that is actually not on par with some of the quarterbacks in this Draft that possess more agility and lower body explosion, such as Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton and Christian Ponder. If Kaepernick is kept in a relatively small box, his elusiveness and ability to make a rusher miss is not much, if any better than passers in this Draft that look far less athletic running the 40 yard dash.

Kaepernick's accuracy has been spotty over his college career. He averaged 58% completion for his four years as a starter. That improved to 65% as a senior, but as I mentioned before, he had a significantly higher percentage of passes that were roll-out and screen plays, which tend to be higher percentage passes, especially as he tended not to aggressively throw the ball down the field on his roll-outs, which is something you would see a Cam Newton or Ryan Mallett do much more frequently. When you watch enough of his throws you start to build a view of Colin's accuracy. He does not lose accuracy on the move, which is an impressive quality. However, his ball placement from inside the pocket tends to be very inconsistent, often throwing the ball high or wide.

His biggest weakness from an accuracy standpoint is one that is shared by Blaine Gabbert of Missouri. That is to say, his accuracy tends to break down significantly on the deep ball. He has no feel for throwing a consistent deep ball with correct touch, distance and ball placement. This showed on tape, on the rare occasions when Colin would throw deep, and it also reared its head at the NFL Combine on deep ball drills.

It should have been relatively easy, on three consecutive throws with the same timing and no coverage, nobody to jam the receiver, to get into a rhythm make your deep throws look uniform. Kaepernick's trajectory, timing and distance were all over the place on his deep throws, as if even with all his four years of starting experience, he still can't decide how he's going to throw that ball.

The question becomes, how big of a deal is bad deep accuracy at the next level? It's impossible to answer that without discussing Kaepernick's biggest issue translating to the next level, his lack of timing and ability to process the field quickly. He does not necessarily throw with anticipation, nor does he read the field in a timely manner. Mike Mayock did a good job pointing out on one of his throws at the Senior Bowl how Colin rolled out and had the look he wanted, had a receiver with separation, but he just couldn't see the play. One usually is not as concerned about a 6'5" quarterback's ability to see the field from the pocket, but considering how much Nevada wanted to get Colin out of the pocket with better sight lines, that becomes more of a question mark.

The accuracy he loses in the pocket, but seems to gain back when moving outside the pocket, could be due to an inability to process information on the field quickly. On the move, with clear sight lines a passer gets the chance to be an athlete. In the pocket, a passer is forced to be a quarterback, and there's a difference.

The deep ball (or lack thereof) comes back into play in the type of offense that fits him at the next level. An offensive coordinator is going to want to utilize his mobility, accuracy on the run, and safe decision-making much as Nevada did, getting him outside the pocket with play action and designed roll-outs. This way, you can open up his vision and let him be an athlete. When he stays in the pocket, the kinds of passes he will be asked to make will be a little more on the predictable side. This type of offense generally requires you to be able to throw the ball deep, off the play action and on the run. Can he do that? This is an area where someone like a Jake Locker differentiates himself from a Colin Kaepernick. Though both have issues with reading the field in a timely manner from inside the pocket, which will lead to both playing in similar offenses, Locker's ability to throw the ball deep and make "wow" plays with his arm from outside the pocket is much more established.

Seeing all of the above, I have to conclude that any talk of Colin Kaepernick rising into the late 1st round (as you may have heard lately) is very difficult to support. My primary problem with Colin Kaepernick as a draft prospect is that the three things that make him unique, are not things I value at the next level.

The first element of his story that makes him unique is rushing production that he has managed to layer on top of his passing production in college. That's a very unique accomplishment, and indeed he holds NCAA records to that effect. However, I do not find this to be a key trait at the next level. His NFL coaches are not going to ask him to run the ball 200 times in a season. Contrarily, you'll notice that his passing production while good, is not very unique in the WAC. Ryan Colburn of Fresno State was able to achieve similar-looking passing production facing mostly the same defenses.

The second element of his story that makes him unique, which is somewhat related to the first, is the straight line build-up speed he is able to achieve when running distances. A 40 yard dash in the low 4.5's at his height and size is very unique and it sparks a lot of intrigue. However, I don't value the straight line build-up speed at the next level nearly as much as I value elusiveness, agility and lower body explosion, none of which are at unique levels on a Colin Kaepernick.

The third and final element of Kaepernick's story which I find to be unique is his arm strength. He can really drive the football like few others. However, I view arm strength to be a requirement, not an incremental benefit. In the NFL, passers tend to need a requisite amount of arm strength to have the versatility to complete the passes they'll need to make (i.e. 'make all the throws'), but nobody has ever shown me that once you're beyond that requirement, incremental increases in arm strength lead to increases in production. Driving the football as fast as Colin Kaepernick is capable is definitely a tool in his toolbox, but not one he can make significantly better use of on a large number of throws, especially if he lacks accuracy on deep verticals.

Arm versatility, which in my book includes things like the quickness of your release and ability to get the ball out at different platforms, is more of a benefit than arm strength. Incremental increases in arm versatility will benefit you at the next level as they help you stay one step ahead of the defense. Whereas Colin's arm strength increases his arm versatility, his elongated mechanics contrarily detract from it.

Once you get beyond the three elements of Colin's story that make him a unique, interesting prospect, none of which I value at the next level, what is left? Pretend for a moment that everything about Kaepernick's story was exactly the same except for three things: 1) Kaepernick showed up at the Combine and had all of the same jump and agility measures but ran a 4.7 instead of a 4.5, 2) His rushing statistics in his senior year (and other years) looked more like 95 runs for 200 yards, and 3) Instead of leaving smoke trails on his intermediate passes, he had 'good' velocity.

What makes him significantly better than a Jeff Van Camp of Florida Atlantic, Ryan Colburn of Fresno State, or Taylor Potts of Texas Tech? This is what bothers me about Colin Kaepernick as a draft prospect, and it is the reason why ultimately I would be hard pressed to draft him before the 3rd or 4th round come April.

So that’s Kaepernick in the bag, although one footnote is that he’ll be coming to Davie for a private workout in late March. But it’s not just the QB position Miami are looking to upgrade. Who else have they been showing an interest in during the past seven days?

Players Dolphins Have Met

Pro day season is well under way. The Dolphins will be on hand in Gainesville later today for the Florida Gators event but they’ve been very busy since last we spoke.

Scouts were on hand at the FIU pro day and Miami was well represented at the Auburn workout to see amongst others Heisman winner Cam Newton. Meanwhile on the same day strong-armed Ryan Mallett was also throwing for the NFL and the Dolphins were on hand there as well.
(Just a footnote to the Razorbacks pro day because the non-eligible juniors also ran for the scouts. A WR that we’re all very high on for 2012 is Joe Adams and he blazed the track with a 4.30 forty. And he may not even be the best Arkansas WR available next year! )

There was also a good turnout at the Alabama event and it was interesting to watch just how closely the Dolphins paid attention to everything that Mark Ingram did. Front row for the forty yard dash which was much quicker and ranged anywhere from the mid 4.4’s to the mid 4.5’s but a solid improvement on what he achieved in Indianapolis. However it was during the drill portions that the Dolphins scouts were really prominent, paying close attention and making copious notes at every catch, cut and jump that the 2009 Heisman winner made during a very, very strong workout.

The Dolphins were also keeping a close eye on OT Gabe Carimi and DE JJ Watt at the Wisconsin pro day. Watt is the ideal five technique end although it may be that he comes off the board before Miami goes on the clock at 15. The San Diego Chargers are noted to be very interested in the relentless underclassman and it could be that Miami listens to phone calls from AJ Smith for the second year running if Watt is there when our pick comes around, especially as the Chargers will be keen to get in front of New England which would seem another great landing spot for the talented Badger.

Jeff Ireland made his annual stop off at the University of Miami day but adverse weather conditions called a halt to it before it had really got under way and has been rescheduled. However Ireland did get some face time with one of Chris’s favourite offensive linemen, G/T Orlando Franklin.

Looking for acorns at the Kent State pro day the Dolphins were keen on slightly undersized OLB Monte Simmons who measured in at 6’1, 234lbs but flashed a remarkable 84 inch wingspan. Both the Steelers and the Ravens – 34 defenses also - who were also on hand paid great interest to Simmons who is scheme diverse and registered 21.5 sacks and 38.5 TFL in his career at KSU.

The Dolphins also kept an eye on Penn State transfer Cobrani Mixon who is an excellent LB and had a terrific workout but has some pretty serious off field issues. One of those issues relates to an arrest in 2008 with free safety Brian Lainhart who Miami also ran the rule over. Both were charged with felony burglary. Lainhart is fairly talented at 6-foot 1/4, 211 pounds. He ran the 40 in 4.64, had a 4.32 short shuttle and 6.63 three-cone drill, as well as a 37 ½-inch vertical, a 10-5 broad jump and 23 reps on the bench press. He’s had issues with neck and shoulder injuries in the past but he’s often around the football.

Miami was one of 29 teams on hand a the Northwestern pro day to see the Wildcat players but also 34 players who either attended high school in the area or attended a smaller school in the state. They were also on hand to see the Oklahoma event and spent time at the Cal pro day with TB Shane Vereen who’s flying under the radar a little bit. He’s flashed some big time talent at times for the Bears and seems to have been stereotyped as purely a 3rd down back but I think there’s more to his game than just 3rd downs.

The Dolphins also attended the Nebraska pro day and saw Niles Paul, an excellent receiver who we reported last week met with Miami at the Combine, run under 4.40. And they were one of 27 teams on hand at the Rutgers pro day.

Miami was also in Bloomington, Indiana last week to watch the Hoosiers prospects work out including QB Ben Chappell and OT/G James Brewer. One Indiana player who hasn’t been able to work out either at the Combine or at the pro day is WR/KR Tandon Doss, a junior who I thought might squeak into the late first round if he’d have run well. I’m unsure as to whether he’s going to be able to work out at all before the draft as he recovers from groin surgery but this is a kid with real talent. Weighing in at 6’3, 205lbs, he has the ability to press the boundary corner down the field and has excellent – mid 4.4 – speed.

Another wideout with excellent speed is Kentucky’s Randall Cobb who has done a really nice job since the end of the season in raising his draft stock. Both he and TB Derrick Locke stood on their Combine numbers but interested Dolphins scouts watched Cobb closely as he looked fantastic catching the ball from Brian Hartline’s brother Mike. Cobb, who can play outside, in at the slot and as a running back even participated in a few TB drills under the direction of Bengals running backs coach Jim Anderson. He has the position and return versatility that Miami likes. Does he have enough deep speed for what the Dolphins truly desire?

Miami had two scouts on hand at the TCU pro day to see amongst others QB Andy Dalton and WR/KR Jeremy Kerley and they were at the Tennessee pro day on Friday where vastly under the radar WR Denarius Moore blazed a 4.37 and MLB Nick Reviez, son of former Dolphins kicker Faud tried out at FB. They were also on hand to see Ohio State’s cadre of players work out and paid particular attention to OG/C Justin Boren.

As for specific player workouts, Portland State TE Julius Thomas was at the facility yesterday and met with the coaches including new TE coach Dan Campbell and GM Jeff Ireland. Miami have already been to see Thomas play during the season and he’s a kid we’ve talked about extensively in this years Draft Winds already.

Sticking with tight ends, there’s another workout scheduled for Arkansas’s DJ Williams who it appears Miami, according to sources, have a significant interest in. I would think Williams should come off the board in the 2nd to early 3rd round area so unless the Dolphins can get back in that 2nd round then they seem destined to miss out on the Mackey Award winner who might just be the seam busting threat that the team has been crying out for.

Miami is also going to have a visit from Auburn QB Cam Newton. Our position has been made very clear on Newton in one of our earlier pieces, suffice to say that nothing has really changed since the end of the season and no amount of throws in shorts and t-shirts is going to change our minds from what we saw on tape at Auburn and indeed in a handful of games at Blinn Community College. Newton’s situation remains precarious in terms of his final draft position although it would seem doubtful that he will last into double figures. With no CBA and hence no trades, it would make it very difficult for the Dolphins to move up.

One of the most controversial prospects in the draft process is Washington’s Jake Locker who some teams believe is a mid-first-round pick and others feel is well short of the required talent. Remember, this was a kid who was touted as the No. 1 overall selection last year had he declared but who decided to stay with the Huskies and despite a poor individual campaign, led his team to a Bowl win. He has some serious accuracy issues at times but when outside the pocket, he can be deadly. He’s very athletic, tough, a tremendous leader and an equally tremendous kid. I know that Chris wouldn’t draft him before the 4th round and I don’t think drafting him in round 1 helps Ireland and Sparano who need success now, because he’s a project. But they’re keen to see more of him after speaking to him in Mobile and he’ll be at the facility in Davie soon.

People are always trying to find the next someone. The next Clay Matthews is apparently Arizona OLB Brooks Reed whose star is very much in the ascendancy. Here’s a kid at around 6’2, 260 who has great instincts and an edge rush ability, plus the flowing locks that remind people of Matthews. He’s not as good as the Packer standout but he is another who’s moving up a la Christian Ponder and could eventually find himself in the top 32 picks come draft day. Miami will also have him in for a private workout.

LB coach Bill Sheridan conducted a private workout for Reed’s team mate LB Ricky Elmore yesterday. The 6’4, 257 pounder ran a 4.79 forty at the Wildcats pro day on Saturday and led the PAC 10 in sacks the past 2 seasons, compiling 21.5 take downs in that time. I’m not sure Elmore’s going to be anything more than a situational rusher and special teamer at the next level as he has a tendency to struggle when defenders get their hands on him and he can get washed out in the run game. However he has proven that he can consistently get to the passer off the edge.

Whether he has the ability in space to drop back in coverage remains to be seen.
The Dolphins have an interest in New Mexico left tackle Byron Bell who at 6’5 and 348lbs commands respect. He’s been one of the more consistent tackles in the country and possesses a terrific wingspan and excellent football strength. He’s had some off the field concerns but could be an interesting late round developmental type. He recorded more than 100 knockdown blocks this season alone.

The Dolphins have also had meetings with two more linebackers, Mike Mohammed of Cal who Richard talked about a couple of weeks ago and can play in a 3-4 and Bruce Carter of North Carolina who’s coming off a serious injury but could be the most athletic LB in the draft when healthy. He has questionable instincts and his stock may fall some due to the situation surrounding many of the Tar Heels and the injury, but he has top 20 talent on his day.

And finally, Miami also met with East Carolina WR Dwayne Harris at the Combine. Harris is smaller at 5’9, 200lbs. He’s an interesting player for Miami to have met with because he really doesn’t offer a great deal more than what we actually have. He’s not blessed with great size, he doesn’t look overly quick on tape and in many respects he’s a poor mans Davone Bess; he’s an excellent route runner who isn’t going to beat anyone deep down the field. He has return capabilities, but there are much better players than Harris in terms of return potential with regards the 2011 Draft.

That’s it for this week. Remember, next week we’ll be breaking down Christian Ponder and hearing what it’s like to play against him and how you defend him from someone whose defense dominated the Seminoles in 2010. Until then, have a great week.

Ponder:

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/spo...g/2011/03/draft_winds_the_christian_pond.html

This one has multiple vids so I didn't post them. You can go to the site and view them.

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[h2]Draft Winds: The Christian Ponder Special[/h2]

By Dave Hyde March 22, 2011 11:25 AM

Draft Winds is an impeccably researched, refreshingly thorough and immeasurably long look at the upcoming draft through the prism of the Dolphins by Simon Clancy, Chris Kouffman and Richard Lines of UniversalDraft.com . This week's entry gives us a great look at Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder, including some insight from an opponent. You can follow the boys of Universal Draft on Twitter at @siclancy and @ckparrot.

Hello again. Straight to it this week as there’s a lot to get through. This is the second part of quarterback analysis following on from Chris’s evaluation of Colin Kaepernick seven days ago. This week it’s another quarterback who we all firmly believe to be on Miami’s radar and that’s Florida State’s Christian Ponder who will be in Davie before the end of the month for a private workout. Richard’s done the backbreaking work on this one. We’ll also get an insight into what it’s like to face the former Seminole signal caller from an interview I conducted with Oklahoma All American linebacker Tom Wort and there’ll be a collection of Miami Meets information to wrap it all up at the end. Ready? Let’s go ...

The road Christian Ponder has taken to the 2011 NFL Draft can hardly be described as an easy one. Coming out of Colleyville Heritage High School in Texas, he wasn’t considered to be an upper echelon talent – which may have been related to him being a Wing T quarterback until his senior season.

Coach Chris Cunningham decided to switch philosophies to a more wide open offensive attack. Ponder responded to the change by throwing 20 touchdowns his senior season and he received offers from 18 universities, including Arizona, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State. However, Ponder wanted to play for Florida State where his father David had played defensive end from 1980-83. So when he received a scholarship offer from FSU, many thought it was simply nepotism at work, especially given that the offer didn’t come until late in the process. The truth was that Christian wanted Florida State more than Florida State wanted him to begin with.

Ponder’s scholarship offer was late as the Noles were holding an allotted scholarship for future Florida quarterback Tim Tebow, who they had been recruiting. When Tebow decided he would play for the Gators, Ponder received his offer. So, if not for Tebow’s decision, Ponder may have been plying his wares at Oklahoma State or Georgia Tech.

Not the auspicious start most recruits would look for. He redshirted 2006, and only saw action in one game in 2007 after Drew Weatherford was knocked out of the Virginia Tech game. 2007 was also the year Jimbo Fisher joined the FSU staff as Offensive Coordinator. During the offseason, Ponder beat out the incumbent Weatherford and never looked back. However, the timing of his ascension was intertwined with what was likely the worst offensive line at the school in recent memory. Ponder threw for 2,006 yards 14TD’s, 13INT’s with a 55.7% completion rate in 2008.

The offense did not play well as a whole, but even this was not the low point of Ponder’s collegiate career. That came in the 2009 season, which was highlighted by a fist fight between members of the coaching staff on the flight home following the loss to Boston College and midseason coaching changes. To top it off, one coach was accused of being a racist.

Christian showed some moxy during this turbulent time, throwing 12 TD’s to 1INT through the first 7 games of 2009. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to avoid the black cloud that hung over the team as he broke his ribs against North Carolina State. He played through the injury the next week against Clemson (a game we feature on the videos), only to throw 4 INT’s and then separate his shoulder trying to tackle safety DeAndre McDaniel; thus ending his season. Ponder threw 6 of his season total 7 interceptions during the final two games he played in 2009. Even with those 2 poor showings to end the season, he totalled 2,717 yards, 14TD’s and 7INT’s with a 68.8% completion percentage.

Ponder’s 2010 season again saw him deal with injuries as he hurt his forearm/elbow against Oklahoma (again featured on the videos). The injury was subsequently misdiagnosed for two weeks, which lead to the injury lingering more than it should have. Combined with a brutal hit he received against Boston College, Ponder’s arm just wasn’t the same for the rest of the year. Christian played through the injury (he did miss 2 games) and probably shouldn’t have played against either Maryland or Florida.

The word is that he only played in either game due to a wrist injury to backup, E.J. Manuel. His numbers dropped from averaging 301.9 yards per game to 185.3, but his 20 touchdowns were a career high, to go along with only 8 INT’s. His completion percentage also dropped to 61.5% as well. The drop in Ponder’s numbers is not directly correlated to a decreased level of play: in 2009, Ponder averaged 36.66 attempts per game, in 2010, that number dropped to 24.91 attempts per game.

Basically, he was asked to throw the ball about one-third less than the previous year, yet his touchdown total increased. Such numbers would tend to suggest that Ponder had become a more efficient passer his senior year. Here are some more: for the year, Ponder had 16 TD’s to 1 int in the red zone, and of his 45 third-down attempts, 41 resulted in either a first down or a touchdown.

The Florida State offense made running the football much more of a priority this past season, getting good production from a stable of backs. Ponder did benefit from the added production in the running game as he was no longer the offensive bell cow.

While the 2010 season saw nothing close to the turmoil during Bobby Bowden’s last days, there were still issues for Ponder to work through. His receivers were for the most part young, inexperienced or poor route runners – sometimes all three. It was said that the one with the most experience with Jimbo Fisher’s offense was Ponder himself. That in of itself is not an issue, the fact that neither the backs nor receivers were the next group in line is.

Obviously there were instances of miscommunication; some of them produced interceptions or poor decisions. This is not to lay all of the blame for some of Christian’s poor showings at the feet of either injury or his teammates, as in the end the quarterback did make some bad decisions on where to go with the football. It only suggests that in the end, he didn’t do all of the damage to himself, by himself.

Staying along those lines it should be noted that while Ponder does get credit for playing in more of a pro-style offense than some of his counterparts this April, the Florida State offense is in reality, somewhat simplistic. The offense is more of a pro-style system when compared to the spread option, one read and go offenses that have proliferated college football in recent years. But, in reality the reads and progressions within the offense are not very complex.

While at FSU Ponder was required to line up under center, albeit mostly to hand off to the back. The majority of the time Ponder dropped back to pass from under center, he did so off of play action – which will in the videos. Otherwise, Christian spent much of his time in either a Pistol or Shotgun look. In short, this is no Norm Chow offense. Much of the offense is based on the smash concept which is explained in this article for those that are interested (thanks to Alen Dumondjic) which was written by Jimbo Fisher himself.

Aside from the Smash concept, the Florida State offense relied quite heavily on short crossing routes as outlets/options underneath. This simplicity, while good for the players who operate it, can also be beneficial for the opposing defenses. As you’ll discover In our interview with Tom Wort, he mentions that the FSU offense didn’t show them anything different than what they had seen on film and this helped them to make plays during the game. This simplistic repetition does bear out, especially in the clips against Clemson from 2009 and indeed Oklahoma in 2010. I highlight this point as one critique of Christian Ponder’s talents; that he had a fair percentage of his boundary throws broken up by defenders getting a good break on the football.

An obvious cause for this could be that Ponder stares down his man – which he does do, albeit not as badly as I first anticipated. Another option may be as Wort implies; that the offense is rather simplified, allowing defenses to ‘know’ what’s coming. Jimbo Fisher’s offense is not the only relatively simplistic offense in college football, now or ever. Much of Steve Spurrier’s offensive success at Florida was predicated on running flats and curls.

A simple offense works in college football a majority of the time. Unfortunately, when this simplified offense comes up against a good defense filled with athletes, or one which features a fundamentally strong scheme, that same offense can struggle to gain traction. Two defenses Florida State struggled with this season were Boston College and Oklahoma. Both teams are known for playing zone coverage, keeping plays in front of them and allowing secondary players to make tackles. Oklahoma may be a more diverse scheme, but BC has long been known as a fundamentally sound defensive system under Frank Spaziani, one which requires an offense to continually execute in order to win.

Again, this does not absolve the quarterback from questions surrounding his own poor decision making. But moving forward one has to wonder how much the offensive system contributed to its own struggles rather than placing blame solely on Christian Ponder.

So, background information aside, what does Ponder bring to the table for prospective teams and fans this April?

Whenever he’s discussed the conversation quickly turns to question regarding his arm strength. It is no secret that Ponder lost time at the end of 2009 to a Grade 3 separation of his throwing shoulder and two elbow surgeries in 2010. These injuries did affect his arm strength, but Ponder’s performance at the Senior Bowl quelled any large scale concerns about that moving forward – at least in my mind. I have included film from games versus Clemson (2009), Oklahoma, Boston College, North Carolina and Miami (2010) and the 2011 Senior Bowl. The videos highlight specific elements of Ponder’s game and are as follows:

1). Throws of 15 yards or greater
2). Throws under 15 yards
3). Play Action 15 yards or greater
4). Play Action 15 yards or under
5). Rollouts
6). Interceptions
7). Pocket Presence (Scrambling & Sacks)

Throws 15 yards or greater

As noted, any discussion of Ponder automatically turns to this aspect of his abilities. Ponder does not possess the same type of arm strength as current Dolphins quarterback, Chad Henne. However, Ponder does possess enough arm strength to make the majority of throws required in the NFL and what his arm lacks in bravado, it more than makes up for in accuracy. In my opinion, this issue is largely overblown. As the video will hopefully illustrate, Ponder can drive the ball down the field, especially in the 15-25 yard area. His throws display the delicate touch and proper arc necessary to drop the ball over defenders, hitting his receiver in stride. His passes feature a tight spiral and exceptional trajectory. In layman’s terms, he throws a nice ball.

There are two areas where I think Ponder stands apart from other quarterbacks in the 2011 draft class; his accuracy in this range and his anticipation. One element to his accuracy is that the ball gets there on time for the most part, which speaks to his ability to anticipate the throw. If a quarterback needs to see his man open before he makes the throw at the pro level, I think he is doomed to be a marginal player. The windows are simply too small to wait until your man ‘is’ open. The quarterback must throw his man open and for my money Christian Ponder has the ability to do just that. He’s capable capable of placing the ball where only his man can make a play on the ball, such as on the receiver’s outside shoulder on deeper sideline passes.

When Ponder does miss, the ball will likely be high and behind his receiver by just a hair. The player doesn’t typically have to stop and reach back for the pass, but his lack of a dominant arm does cause the ball to sail from time to time. Although I think he has a live arm, I do not think one can count on Ponder’s throws beating a defensive back to the spot on a deep out consistently. If he is late on the throw, he doesn’t have the ability to make up the difference during it with his velocity.

While Christian can heave the ball over 40 yards, his most effective range maybe a little short of that distance. When he does throw the ball over 40 yards he will require the receiver to work back for the ball more often than not, although he does let loose some 50 yard plus throws on occasion. Outside of this scenario, Ponder typically delivers the ball in a position where his man can gain yardage after the catch. As the video shows, he cannot throw the ball deep, late as he simply doesn’t have the calibre of arm required, although he doesn’t appear to labour in attempting such distances. In my mind, a good comparison in terms of arm strength may be Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck.

Throws under 15 yards

This area of the field is where Ponder’s accuracy and anticipation can really shine as he has the necessary qualities to drive the ball into tight windows in zone coverage, while also having the accuracy to lead receivers on slant routes. Again, he typically hits his receiver in stride, allowing him to make yardage after the catch. In short, he throws a catchable ball and throwing a catchable ball on shorter routes is often overlooked and is one reason Ponder is likely to top the list of West Coast passers this April.

Being consistently accurate speaks to a quarterback’s balance in his set up. Some quarterbacks drop back too fast, putting too much weight on his back foot. Some rely on taking big strides as they throw the ball which helps to make them less accurate – Colin Kaepernick for example. Quarterbacks that can drop back, hit their back foot, shift their weight forward while keep their shoulders level; staying balanced, are typically very accurate.

Ponder’s drop reminds me of John Wooden when he said “be quick, but don’t hurry.

 

[ThaxbyChamblis]

Long read on two of the QB's discussed lately, Ponder and Kaepernick:

Kaepernick:

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/hyde/blog/2011/03/draft_winds.html

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[h2]Draft Winds: Breaking down QB Colin Kaepernick[/h2]

By Dave Hyde March 15, 2011 10:26 AM

Draft Winds is an impeccably researched, refreshingly thorough and immeasurably long look at the upcoming draft through the prism of the Dolphins by Simon Clancy, Chris Kouffman and Richard Lines of UniversalDraft.com . You can follow them on Twitter at @siclancy and @ckparrot.

Hello again. Many thanks for continuing to support us and reading our weekly offerings. Whilst the issues with the CBA look set for the court room, we’re full steam ahead for the end of April. And for the next two weeks we’re going to look very hard at two quarterbacks we think the Dolphins will be showing a lot of interest in. We know that the coaching staff has met and interviewed both since the start of this Draft run and we’re going to look critically and analytically at what they offered at the college level and how we think that translates to the 2011 Dolphins if indeed they decide that drafting a passer high is the plan.

Next week we’re going to discuss one of the fastest climbing quarterbacks in the 2011 selection meeting, Florida State’s Christian Ponder who it seems could well end up in the first round and perhaps even in the middle of the first if what we’re hearing is to be believed. But this week it’s Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick and Chris has been doing the heavy lifting with the senior from the desert.

The Colin Kaepernick file:

The fifth-year senior and four-year starter is one of the more intriguing prospects in this year's quarterbacks class. Not highly recruited coming out of high school because he was figured to be a baseball star, he redshirted his first season at Nevada but went on to become the only player in NCAA history to rush for 4,000+ yards while also passing for 10,000+ yards. Those hailing from the Bill Parcells school of profile drafting will appreciate Kaepernick's experience level (about 49 games with significant playing time), the fact that he's a college graduate, and the fact that he's a winner (32 wins, including a 13-1 record as a senior).

Combining with his unique production, his experience level, and winning record at Nevada, is an extremely fascinating blend of size and physical tools. Measuring in at just under 6'5" and 233 lbs, Colin ran in the low 4.5's at the NFL Combine, with a 32.5" vertical, 4.18 second short shuttle and 6.85 second cone drill. Those numbers would be considered good on a wide receiver prospect, let alone a quarterback.

He carries a howitzer on his shoulders that officially clocked the fastest ball velocity at the Combine, at 59 mph on the radar gun. And, if all that doesn't intrigue you enough, he has a squeaky clean record off the field and is by all accounts a hard working, humble, good-natured and well-grounded kid.

So, what's the catch? The catch is that, not unlike Tim Tebow a year ago, Colin has some funky throwing mechanics that may not translate at the next level. Also like Tebow, he comes from a very non-pro-style offense, and will have to work heavily on his pro timing, anticipation, and field vision. Essentially, he's a quarterback that you have to build from the ground up, even though he's already a four-year starter with 1,200+ college throws under his belt.

Colin has a lanky build, with extremely long arms, long legs and big feet. There is some school of thought that the best combination for a quarterback is to have a tall guy with short arms, which keeps his delivery nice and short. Kaepernick can fall into taking long strides into his throws and generating the necessary torque with the ball in a wide orbit away from his core.

I know from talking to Richard here at Universal that he believes that his stride is likely going to keep him from ever being a highly accurate quarterback much like a Donavan McNabb. Kaepernick has a loop like Tebow did and I believe he is even more prone than Tebow to giving away his intended target with his head, shoulders and motion. The tremendous velocity he achieves on intermediate throws helps to counter-balance some of the length in his targeting and drawback, but then his shorter touch passes can fall victim to remnants of the same motion, with the delivery looking too long and drawn out, giving defenders time to get a jump on the receiver and prevent yards after the catch.

If one were to watch closely his games against Boise State and Boston College, two of the more respectable defenses he faced this season, one would clearly see defenders getting a little bit of a jump on the ball due to Colin's build-up and delivery. Additionally, he can get some balls batted down at the line when kept in the pocket, because he gives defensive linemen a little extra time to react to the ball.

Nevada did not ask Kaepernick to become a true pocket passer. I found that only about 2 out of 5 of his pass attempts in the games I graded involved him sitting in the pocket and delivering. For perspective on this, both Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett sat in the pocket and delivered the football a higher percentage of their throws than Colin, and Newton's percentage was much closer to Mallett's than it was Kaepernick's. About 1 in 3 of Colin's pass attempts were designed roll-outs or screen passes. This was a much higher portion (a difference of +10%) of Kaepernick's passing than that of Cam Newton, who is more often accused of playing out of a gimmick offense where decision-making is minimized by screens and roll-outs. I didn't see Colin coming under as much pressure as guys like Newton and Ryan Mallett, as Nevada's playbook with all of the screen passes and roll-outs tended to keep defenders out of Kaepernick's face.

He is at his absolute best when moving out of the pocket, creating better angles and sight lines, and throwing the ball with impressive accuracy on the run. However, I did not necessarily find that Colin beat the blitz or dealt with pressure consistently. Boise State blitzed him very aggressively while Boston College sat back and played his eyes more. Both teams occasionally dropped an extra defender or two into coverage to try and confuse him.

What I found is on these plays where defenses tried to put pressure on the quarterback by blitzing him or by surprising him with extra defenders in coverage, Colin was just 13 of 26 passing for 153 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception. He had 2 rushes for 20 yards with a TD, but also a lost fumble, and was sacked 2 times for -19 yards in losses. The touchdown he got during this subset of plays was the scramble against Boise State where a blitzing corner lost contain, and Colin spun outside of him. It was an excellent play by Colin, but you wonder if he will be able to do that sort of thing against pro athletes like Vontae Davis.

Overall, a net 5.1 yards per play with 1 TD and 2 turnovers against two of the only good defenses his Nevada Wolfpack faced this year, has to be concerning when it comes to reading complicated blitz and drop defenses, and beating them. It definitely lends credibility to the theory that his extended throwing motion impacts the versatility of his arm, the ability to flick the ball to a short receiving option without tipping off the defense. It also shows that Nevada's offense was so simplistic, relying so heavily on roll-outs and simplified reads, that he doesn't necessarily read the blitz pre-snap very well to where he can hit the defense where it'll hurt.

Another thing you notice the more you watch him under fire by blitzing and pressure is that his speed and athleticism is a very long striding speed that must be built up with at least 15 to 20 yards of space. He lacks a lot of the quick twitch elusiveness and lower body explosion that one might expect out of a guy that runs in the low 4.5's as he does. This translates to elusiveness in the pocket and in short spaces that is actually not on par with some of the quarterbacks in this Draft that possess more agility and lower body explosion, such as Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton and Christian Ponder. If Kaepernick is kept in a relatively small box, his elusiveness and ability to make a rusher miss is not much, if any better than passers in this Draft that look far less athletic running the 40 yard dash.

Kaepernick's accuracy has been spotty over his college career. He averaged 58% completion for his four years as a starter. That improved to 65% as a senior, but as I mentioned before, he had a significantly higher percentage of passes that were roll-out and screen plays, which tend to be higher percentage passes, especially as he tended not to aggressively throw the ball down the field on his roll-outs, which is something you would see a Cam Newton or Ryan Mallett do much more frequently. When you watch enough of his throws you start to build a view of Colin's accuracy. He does not lose accuracy on the move, which is an impressive quality. However, his ball placement from inside the pocket tends to be very inconsistent, often throwing the ball high or wide.

His biggest weakness from an accuracy standpoint is one that is shared by Blaine Gabbert of Missouri. That is to say, his accuracy tends to break down significantly on the deep ball. He has no feel for throwing a consistent deep ball with correct touch, distance and ball placement. This showed on tape, on the rare occasions when Colin would throw deep, and it also reared its head at the NFL Combine on deep ball drills.

It should have been relatively easy, on three consecutive throws with the same timing and no coverage, nobody to jam the receiver, to get into a rhythm make your deep throws look uniform. Kaepernick's trajectory, timing and distance were all over the place on his deep throws, as if even with all his four years of starting experience, he still can't decide how he's going to throw that ball.

The question becomes, how big of a deal is bad deep accuracy at the next level? It's impossible to answer that without discussing Kaepernick's biggest issue translating to the next level, his lack of timing and ability to process the field quickly. He does not necessarily throw with anticipation, nor does he read the field in a timely manner. Mike Mayock did a good job pointing out on one of his throws at the Senior Bowl how Colin rolled out and had the look he wanted, had a receiver with separation, but he just couldn't see the play. One usually is not as concerned about a 6'5" quarterback's ability to see the field from the pocket, but considering how much Nevada wanted to get Colin out of the pocket with better sight lines, that becomes more of a question mark.

The accuracy he loses in the pocket, but seems to gain back when moving outside the pocket, could be due to an inability to process information on the field quickly. On the move, with clear sight lines a passer gets the chance to be an athlete. In the pocket, a passer is forced to be a quarterback, and there's a difference.

The deep ball (or lack thereof) comes back into play in the type of offense that fits him at the next level. An offensive coordinator is going to want to utilize his mobility, accuracy on the run, and safe decision-making much as Nevada did, getting him outside the pocket with play action and designed roll-outs. This way, you can open up his vision and let him be an athlete. When he stays in the pocket, the kinds of passes he will be asked to make will be a little more on the predictable side. This type of offense generally requires you to be able to throw the ball deep, off the play action and on the run. Can he do that? This is an area where someone like a Jake Locker differentiates himself from a Colin Kaepernick. Though both have issues with reading the field in a timely manner from inside the pocket, which will lead to both playing in similar offenses, Locker's ability to throw the ball deep and make "wow" plays with his arm from outside the pocket is much more established.

Seeing all of the above, I have to conclude that any talk of Colin Kaepernick rising into the late 1st round (as you may have heard lately) is very difficult to support. My primary problem with Colin Kaepernick as a draft prospect is that the three things that make him unique, are not things I value at the next level.

The first element of his story that makes him unique is rushing production that he has managed to layer on top of his passing production in college. That's a very unique accomplishment, and indeed he holds NCAA records to that effect. However, I do not find this to be a key trait at the next level. His NFL coaches are not going to ask him to run the ball 200 times in a season. Contrarily, you'll notice that his passing production while good, is not very unique in the WAC. Ryan Colburn of Fresno State was able to achieve similar-looking passing production facing mostly the same defenses.

The second element of his story that makes him unique, which is somewhat related to the first, is the straight line build-up speed he is able to achieve when running distances. A 40 yard dash in the low 4.5's at his height and size is very unique and it sparks a lot of intrigue. However, I don't value the straight line build-up speed at the next level nearly as much as I value elusiveness, agility and lower body explosion, none of which are at unique levels on a Colin Kaepernick.

The third and final element of Kaepernick's story which I find to be unique is his arm strength. He can really drive the football like few others. However, I view arm strength to be a requirement, not an incremental benefit. In the NFL, passers tend to need a requisite amount of arm strength to have the versatility to complete the passes they'll need to make (i.e. 'make all the throws'), but nobody has ever shown me that once you're beyond that requirement, incremental increases in arm strength lead to increases in production. Driving the football as fast as Colin Kaepernick is capable is definitely a tool in his toolbox, but not one he can make significantly better use of on a large number of throws, especially if he lacks accuracy on deep verticals.

Arm versatility, which in my book includes things like the quickness of your release and ability to get the ball out at different platforms, is more of a benefit than arm strength. Incremental increases in arm versatility will benefit you at the next level as they help you stay one step ahead of the defense. Whereas Colin's arm strength increases his arm versatility, his elongated mechanics contrarily detract from it.

Once you get beyond the three elements of Colin's story that make him a unique, interesting prospect, none of which I value at the next level, what is left? Pretend for a moment that everything about Kaepernick's story was exactly the same except for three things: 1) Kaepernick showed up at the Combine and had all of the same jump and agility measures but ran a 4.7 instead of a 4.5, 2) His rushing statistics in his senior year (and other years) looked more like 95 runs for 200 yards, and 3) Instead of leaving smoke trails on his intermediate passes, he had 'good' velocity.

What makes him significantly better than a Jeff Van Camp of Florida Atlantic, Ryan Colburn of Fresno State, or Taylor Potts of Texas Tech? This is what bothers me about Colin Kaepernick as a draft prospect, and it is the reason why ultimately I would be hard pressed to draft him before the 3rd or 4th round come April.

So that’s Kaepernick in the bag, although one footnote is that he’ll be coming to Davie for a private workout in late March. But it’s not just the QB position Miami are looking to upgrade. Who else have they been showing an interest in during the past seven days?

Players Dolphins Have Met

Pro day season is well under way. The Dolphins will be on hand in Gainesville later today for the Florida Gators event but they’ve been very busy since last we spoke.

Scouts were on hand at the FIU pro day and Miami was well represented at the Auburn workout to see amongst others Heisman winner Cam Newton. Meanwhile on the same day strong-armed Ryan Mallett was also throwing for the NFL and the Dolphins were on hand there as well.
(Just a footnote to the Razorbacks pro day because the non-eligible juniors also ran for the scouts. A WR that we’re all very high on for 2012 is Joe Adams and he blazed the track with a 4.30 forty. And he may not even be the best Arkansas WR available next year! )

There was also a good turnout at the Alabama event and it was interesting to watch just how closely the Dolphins paid attention to everything that Mark Ingram did. Front row for the forty yard dash which was much quicker and ranged anywhere from the mid 4.4’s to the mid 4.5’s but a solid improvement on what he achieved in Indianapolis. However it was during the drill portions that the Dolphins scouts were really prominent, paying close attention and making copious notes at every catch, cut and jump that the 2009 Heisman winner made during a very, very strong workout.

The Dolphins were also keeping a close eye on OT Gabe Carimi and DE JJ Watt at the Wisconsin pro day. Watt is the ideal five technique end although it may be that he comes off the board before Miami goes on the clock at 15. The San Diego Chargers are noted to be very interested in the relentless underclassman and it could be that Miami listens to phone calls from AJ Smith for the second year running if Watt is there when our pick comes around, especially as the Chargers will be keen to get in front of New England which would seem another great landing spot for the talented Badger.

Jeff Ireland made his annual stop off at the University of Miami day but adverse weather conditions called a halt to it before it had really got under way and has been rescheduled. However Ireland did get some face time with one of Chris’s favourite offensive linemen, G/T Orlando Franklin.

Looking for acorns at the Kent State pro day the Dolphins were keen on slightly undersized OLB Monte Simmons who measured in at 6’1, 234lbs but flashed a remarkable 84 inch wingspan. Both the Steelers and the Ravens – 34 defenses also - who were also on hand paid great interest to Simmons who is scheme diverse and registered 21.5 sacks and 38.5 TFL in his career at KSU.

The Dolphins also kept an eye on Penn State transfer Cobrani Mixon who is an excellent LB and had a terrific workout but has some pretty serious off field issues. One of those issues relates to an arrest in 2008 with free safety Brian Lainhart who Miami also ran the rule over. Both were charged with felony burglary. Lainhart is fairly talented at 6-foot 1/4, 211 pounds. He ran the 40 in 4.64, had a 4.32 short shuttle and 6.63 three-cone drill, as well as a 37 ½-inch vertical, a 10-5 broad jump and 23 reps on the bench press. He’s had issues with neck and shoulder injuries in the past but he’s often around the football.

Miami was one of 29 teams on hand a the Northwestern pro day to see the Wildcat players but also 34 players who either attended high school in the area or attended a smaller school in the state. They were also on hand to see the Oklahoma event and spent time at the Cal pro day with TB Shane Vereen who’s flying under the radar a little bit. He’s flashed some big time talent at times for the Bears and seems to have been stereotyped as purely a 3rd down back but I think there’s more to his game than just 3rd downs.

The Dolphins also attended the Nebraska pro day and saw Niles Paul, an excellent receiver who we reported last week met with Miami at the Combine, run under 4.40. And they were one of 27 teams on hand at the Rutgers pro day.

Miami was also in Bloomington, Indiana last week to watch the Hoosiers prospects work out including QB Ben Chappell and OT/G James Brewer. One Indiana player who hasn’t been able to work out either at the Combine or at the pro day is WR/KR Tandon Doss, a junior who I thought might squeak into the late first round if he’d have run well. I’m unsure as to whether he’s going to be able to work out at all before the draft as he recovers from groin surgery but this is a kid with real talent. Weighing in at 6’3, 205lbs, he has the ability to press the boundary corner down the field and has excellent – mid 4.4 – speed.

Another wideout with excellent speed is Kentucky’s Randall Cobb who has done a really nice job since the end of the season in raising his draft stock. Both he and TB Derrick Locke stood on their Combine numbers but interested Dolphins scouts watched Cobb closely as he looked fantastic catching the ball from Brian Hartline’s brother Mike. Cobb, who can play outside, in at the slot and as a running back even participated in a few TB drills under the direction of Bengals running backs coach Jim Anderson. He has the position and return versatility that Miami likes. Does he have enough deep speed for what the Dolphins truly desire?

Miami had two scouts on hand at the TCU pro day to see amongst others QB Andy Dalton and WR/KR Jeremy Kerley and they were at the Tennessee pro day on Friday where vastly under the radar WR Denarius Moore blazed a 4.37 and MLB Nick Reviez, son of former Dolphins kicker Faud tried out at FB. They were also on hand to see Ohio State’s cadre of players work out and paid particular attention to OG/C Justin Boren.

As for specific player workouts, Portland State TE Julius Thomas was at the facility yesterday and met with the coaches including new TE coach Dan Campbell and GM Jeff Ireland. Miami have already been to see Thomas play during the season and he’s a kid we’ve talked about extensively in this years Draft Winds already.

Sticking with tight ends, there’s another workout scheduled for Arkansas’s DJ Williams who it appears Miami, according to sources, have a significant interest in. I would think Williams should come off the board in the 2nd to early 3rd round area so unless the Dolphins can get back in that 2nd round then they seem destined to miss out on the Mackey Award winner who might just be the seam busting threat that the team has been crying out for.

Miami is also going to have a visit from Auburn QB Cam Newton. Our position has been made very clear on Newton in one of our earlier pieces, suffice to say that nothing has really changed since the end of the season and no amount of throws in shorts and t-shirts is going to change our minds from what we saw on tape at Auburn and indeed in a handful of games at Blinn Community College. Newton’s situation remains precarious in terms of his final draft position although it would seem doubtful that he will last into double figures. With no CBA and hence no trades, it would make it very difficult for the Dolphins to move up.

One of the most controversial prospects in the draft process is Washington’s Jake Locker who some teams believe is a mid-first-round pick and others feel is well short of the required talent. Remember, this was a kid who was touted as the No. 1 overall selection last year had he declared but who decided to stay with the Huskies and despite a poor individual campaign, led his team to a Bowl win. He has some serious accuracy issues at times but when outside the pocket, he can be deadly. He’s very athletic, tough, a tremendous leader and an equally tremendous kid. I know that Chris wouldn’t draft him before the 4th round and I don’t think drafting him in round 1 helps Ireland and Sparano who need success now, because he’s a project. But they’re keen to see more of him after speaking to him in Mobile and he’ll be at the facility in Davie soon.

People are always trying to find the next someone. The next Clay Matthews is apparently Arizona OLB Brooks Reed whose star is very much in the ascendancy. Here’s a kid at around 6’2, 260 who has great instincts and an edge rush ability, plus the flowing locks that remind people of Matthews. He’s not as good as the Packer standout but he is another who’s moving up a la Christian Ponder and could eventually find himself in the top 32 picks come draft day. Miami will also have him in for a private workout.

LB coach Bill Sheridan conducted a private workout for Reed’s team mate LB Ricky Elmore yesterday. The 6’4, 257 pounder ran a 4.79 forty at the Wildcats pro day on Saturday and led the PAC 10 in sacks the past 2 seasons, compiling 21.5 take downs in that time. I’m not sure Elmore’s going to be anything more than a situational rusher and special teamer at the next level as he has a tendency to struggle when defenders get their hands on him and he can get washed out in the run game. However he has proven that he can consistently get to the passer off the edge.

Whether he has the ability in space to drop back in coverage remains to be seen.
The Dolphins have an interest in New Mexico left tackle Byron Bell who at 6’5 and 348lbs commands respect. He’s been one of the more consistent tackles in the country and possesses a terrific wingspan and excellent football strength. He’s had some off the field concerns but could be an interesting late round developmental type. He recorded more than 100 knockdown blocks this season alone.

The Dolphins have also had meetings with two more linebackers, Mike Mohammed of Cal who Richard talked about a couple of weeks ago and can play in a 3-4 and Bruce Carter of North Carolina who’s coming off a serious injury but could be the most athletic LB in the draft when healthy. He has questionable instincts and his stock may fall some due to the situation surrounding many of the Tar Heels and the injury, but he has top 20 talent on his day.

And finally, Miami also met with East Carolina WR Dwayne Harris at the Combine. Harris is smaller at 5’9, 200lbs. He’s an interesting player for Miami to have met with because he really doesn’t offer a great deal more than what we actually have. He’s not blessed with great size, he doesn’t look overly quick on tape and in many respects he’s a poor mans Davone Bess; he’s an excellent route runner who isn’t going to beat anyone deep down the field. He has return capabilities, but there are much better players than Harris in terms of return potential with regards the 2011 Draft.

That’s it for this week. Remember, next week we’ll be breaking down Christian Ponder and hearing what it’s like to play against him and how you defend him from someone whose defense dominated the Seminoles in 2010. Until then, have a great week.

Ponder:

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/spo...g/2011/03/draft_winds_the_christian_pond.html

This one has multiple vids so I didn't post them. You can go to the site and view them.

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[h2]Draft Winds: The Christian Ponder Special[/h2]

By Dave Hyde March 22, 2011 11:25 AM

Draft Winds is an impeccably researched, refreshingly thorough and immeasurably long look at the upcoming draft through the prism of the Dolphins by Simon Clancy, Chris Kouffman and Richard Lines of UniversalDraft.com . This week's entry gives us a great look at Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder, including some insight from an opponent. You can follow the boys of Universal Draft on Twitter at @siclancy and @ckparrot.

Hello again. Straight to it this week as there’s a lot to get through. This is the second part of quarterback analysis following on from Chris’s evaluation of Colin Kaepernick seven days ago. This week it’s another quarterback who we all firmly believe to be on Miami’s radar and that’s Florida State’s Christian Ponder who will be in Davie before the end of the month for a private workout. Richard’s done the backbreaking work on this one. We’ll also get an insight into what it’s like to face the former Seminole signal caller from an interview I conducted with Oklahoma All American linebacker Tom Wort and there’ll be a collection of Miami Meets information to wrap it all up at the end. Ready? Let’s go ...

The road Christian Ponder has taken to the 2011 NFL Draft can hardly be described as an easy one. Coming out of Colleyville Heritage High School in Texas, he wasn’t considered to be an upper echelon talent – which may have been related to him being a Wing T quarterback until his senior season.

Coach Chris Cunningham decided to switch philosophies to a more wide open offensive attack. Ponder responded to the change by throwing 20 touchdowns his senior season and he received offers from 18 universities, including Arizona, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State. However, Ponder wanted to play for Florida State where his father David had played defensive end from 1980-83. So when he received a scholarship offer from FSU, many thought it was simply nepotism at work, especially given that the offer didn’t come until late in the process. The truth was that Christian wanted Florida State more than Florida State wanted him to begin with.

Ponder’s scholarship offer was late as the Noles were holding an allotted scholarship for future Florida quarterback Tim Tebow, who they had been recruiting. When Tebow decided he would play for the Gators, Ponder received his offer. So, if not for Tebow’s decision, Ponder may have been plying his wares at Oklahoma State or Georgia Tech.

Not the auspicious start most recruits would look for. He redshirted 2006, and only saw action in one game in 2007 after Drew Weatherford was knocked out of the Virginia Tech game. 2007 was also the year Jimbo Fisher joined the FSU staff as Offensive Coordinator. During the offseason, Ponder beat out the incumbent Weatherford and never looked back. However, the timing of his ascension was intertwined with what was likely the worst offensive line at the school in recent memory. Ponder threw for 2,006 yards 14TD’s, 13INT’s with a 55.7% completion rate in 2008.

The offense did not play well as a whole, but even this was not the low point of Ponder’s collegiate career. That came in the 2009 season, which was highlighted by a fist fight between members of the coaching staff on the flight home following the loss to Boston College and midseason coaching changes. To top it off, one coach was accused of being a racist.

Christian showed some moxy during this turbulent time, throwing 12 TD’s to 1INT through the first 7 games of 2009. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to avoid the black cloud that hung over the team as he broke his ribs against North Carolina State. He played through the injury the next week against Clemson (a game we feature on the videos), only to throw 4 INT’s and then separate his shoulder trying to tackle safety DeAndre McDaniel; thus ending his season. Ponder threw 6 of his season total 7 interceptions during the final two games he played in 2009. Even with those 2 poor showings to end the season, he totalled 2,717 yards, 14TD’s and 7INT’s with a 68.8% completion percentage.

Ponder’s 2010 season again saw him deal with injuries as he hurt his forearm/elbow against Oklahoma (again featured on the videos). The injury was subsequently misdiagnosed for two weeks, which lead to the injury lingering more than it should have. Combined with a brutal hit he received against Boston College, Ponder’s arm just wasn’t the same for the rest of the year. Christian played through the injury (he did miss 2 games) and probably shouldn’t have played against either Maryland or Florida.

The word is that he only played in either game due to a wrist injury to backup, E.J. Manuel. His numbers dropped from averaging 301.9 yards per game to 185.3, but his 20 touchdowns were a career high, to go along with only 8 INT’s. His completion percentage also dropped to 61.5% as well. The drop in Ponder’s numbers is not directly correlated to a decreased level of play: in 2009, Ponder averaged 36.66 attempts per game, in 2010, that number dropped to 24.91 attempts per game.

Basically, he was asked to throw the ball about one-third less than the previous year, yet his touchdown total increased. Such numbers would tend to suggest that Ponder had become a more efficient passer his senior year. Here are some more: for the year, Ponder had 16 TD’s to 1 int in the red zone, and of his 45 third-down attempts, 41 resulted in either a first down or a touchdown.

The Florida State offense made running the football much more of a priority this past season, getting good production from a stable of backs. Ponder did benefit from the added production in the running game as he was no longer the offensive bell cow.

While the 2010 season saw nothing close to the turmoil during Bobby Bowden’s last days, there were still issues for Ponder to work through. His receivers were for the most part young, inexperienced or poor route runners – sometimes all three. It was said that the one with the most experience with Jimbo Fisher’s offense was Ponder himself. That in of itself is not an issue, the fact that neither the backs nor receivers were the next group in line is.

Obviously there were instances of miscommunication; some of them produced interceptions or poor decisions. This is not to lay all of the blame for some of Christian’s poor showings at the feet of either injury or his teammates, as in the end the quarterback did make some bad decisions on where to go with the football. It only suggests that in the end, he didn’t do all of the damage to himself, by himself.

Staying along those lines it should be noted that while Ponder does get credit for playing in more of a pro-style offense than some of his counterparts this April, the Florida State offense is in reality, somewhat simplistic. The offense is more of a pro-style system when compared to the spread option, one read and go offenses that have proliferated college football in recent years. But, in reality the reads and progressions within the offense are not very complex.

While at FSU Ponder was required to line up under center, albeit mostly to hand off to the back. The majority of the time Ponder dropped back to pass from under center, he did so off of play action – which will in the videos. Otherwise, Christian spent much of his time in either a Pistol or Shotgun look. In short, this is no Norm Chow offense. Much of the offense is based on the smash concept which is explained in this article for those that are interested (thanks to Alen Dumondjic) which was written by Jimbo Fisher himself.

Aside from the Smash concept, the Florida State offense relied quite heavily on short crossing routes as outlets/options underneath. This simplicity, while good for the players who operate it, can also be beneficial for the opposing defenses. As you’ll discover In our interview with Tom Wort, he mentions that the FSU offense didn’t show them anything different than what they had seen on film and this helped them to make plays during the game. This simplistic repetition does bear out, especially in the clips against Clemson from 2009 and indeed Oklahoma in 2010. I highlight this point as one critique of Christian Ponder’s talents; that he had a fair percentage of his boundary throws broken up by defenders getting a good break on the football.

An obvious cause for this could be that Ponder stares down his man – which he does do, albeit not as badly as I first anticipated. Another option may be as Wort implies; that the offense is rather simplified, allowing defenses to ‘know’ what’s coming. Jimbo Fisher’s offense is not the only relatively simplistic offense in college football, now or ever. Much of Steve Spurrier’s offensive success at Florida was predicated on running flats and curls.

A simple offense works in college football a majority of the time. Unfortunately, when this simplified offense comes up against a good defense filled with athletes, or one which features a fundamentally strong scheme, that same offense can struggle to gain traction. Two defenses Florida State struggled with this season were Boston College and Oklahoma. Both teams are known for playing zone coverage, keeping plays in front of them and allowing secondary players to make tackles. Oklahoma may be a more diverse scheme, but BC has long been known as a fundamentally sound defensive system under Frank Spaziani, one which requires an offense to continually execute in order to win.

Again, this does not absolve the quarterback from questions surrounding his own poor decision making. But moving forward one has to wonder how much the offensive system contributed to its own struggles rather than placing blame solely on Christian Ponder.

So, background information aside, what does Ponder bring to the table for prospective teams and fans this April?

Whenever he’s discussed the conversation quickly turns to question regarding his arm strength. It is no secret that Ponder lost time at the end of 2009 to a Grade 3 separation of his throwing shoulder and two elbow surgeries in 2010. These injuries did affect his arm strength, but Ponder’s performance at the Senior Bowl quelled any large scale concerns about that moving forward – at least in my mind. I have included film from games versus Clemson (2009), Oklahoma, Boston College, North Carolina and Miami (2010) and the 2011 Senior Bowl. The videos highlight specific elements of Ponder’s game and are as follows:

1). Throws of 15 yards or greater
2). Throws under 15 yards
3). Play Action 15 yards or greater
4). Play Action 15 yards or under
5). Rollouts
6). Interceptions
7). Pocket Presence (Scrambling & Sacks)

Throws 15 yards or greater

As noted, any discussion of Ponder automatically turns to this aspect of his abilities. Ponder does not possess the same type of arm strength as current Dolphins quarterback, Chad Henne. However, Ponder does possess enough arm strength to make the majority of throws required in the NFL and what his arm lacks in bravado, it more than makes up for in accuracy. In my opinion, this issue is largely overblown. As the video will hopefully illustrate, Ponder can drive the ball down the field, especially in the 15-25 yard area. His throws display the delicate touch and proper arc necessary to drop the ball over defenders, hitting his receiver in stride. His passes feature a tight spiral and exceptional trajectory. In layman’s terms, he throws a nice ball.

There are two areas where I think Ponder stands apart from other quarterbacks in the 2011 draft class; his accuracy in this range and his anticipation. One element to his accuracy is that the ball gets there on time for the most part, which speaks to his ability to anticipate the throw. If a quarterback needs to see his man open before he makes the throw at the pro level, I think he is doomed to be a marginal player. The windows are simply too small to wait until your man ‘is’ open. The quarterback must throw his man open and for my money Christian Ponder has the ability to do just that. He’s capable capable of placing the ball where only his man can make a play on the ball, such as on the receiver’s outside shoulder on deeper sideline passes.

When Ponder does miss, the ball will likely be high and behind his receiver by just a hair. The player doesn’t typically have to stop and reach back for the pass, but his lack of a dominant arm does cause the ball to sail from time to time. Although I think he has a live arm, I do not think one can count on Ponder’s throws beating a defensive back to the spot on a deep out consistently. If he is late on the throw, he doesn’t have the ability to make up the difference during it with his velocity.

While Christian can heave the ball over 40 yards, his most effective range maybe a little short of that distance. When he does throw the ball over 40 yards he will require the receiver to work back for the ball more often than not, although he does let loose some 50 yard plus throws on occasion. Outside of this scenario, Ponder typically delivers the ball in a position where his man can gain yardage after the catch. As the video shows, he cannot throw the ball deep, late as he simply doesn’t have the calibre of arm required, although he doesn’t appear to labour in attempting such distances. In my mind, a good comparison in terms of arm strength may be Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck.

Throws under 15 yards

This area of the field is where Ponder’s accuracy and anticipation can really shine as he has the necessary qualities to drive the ball into tight windows in zone coverage, while also having the accuracy to lead receivers on slant routes. Again, he typically hits his receiver in stride, allowing him to make yardage after the catch. In short, he throws a catchable ball and throwing a catchable ball on shorter routes is often overlooked and is one reason Ponder is likely to top the list of West Coast passers this April.

Being consistently accurate speaks to a quarterback’s balance in his set up. Some quarterbacks drop back too fast, putting too much weight on his back foot. Some rely on taking big strides as they throw the ball which helps to make them less accurate – Colin Kaepernick for example. Quarterbacks that can drop back, hit their back foot, shift their weight forward while keep their shoulders level; staying balanced, are typically very accurate.

Ponder’s drop reminds me of John Wooden when he said “be quick, but don’t hurry.

 

[livemyreality]

So do some of you believe the Niners will use their first pick for a QB?

 

[livemyreality]

So do some of you believe the Niners will use their first pick for a QB?

 

[westcoastsfinest]

Originally Posted by Deuce King

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.

http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936

When is this nightmare going to end?

Agreed.  Everytime I enter this thread and see his name I get depressed.  I just want him gone from the team permanently!!  It's BEEN time to move on.

  

QFT! 

seeing his name wants me to go outside in this rain shawshank redemption style and scream from the top of my lungs in anger! 

 

what makes my day worse? we just hired a guy that from seattle whos a huge seahawks fan and we're already going back and forth

 

  

 

[westcoastsfinest]

Originally Posted by Deuce King

Originally Posted by dland24

Looks like the 49ers are about to get fined for Harbaugh's workouts with Alex Smith.

http://www.csnbayarea.com...ockID=468004&feedID=5936

When is this nightmare going to end?

Agreed.  Everytime I enter this thread and see his name I get depressed.  I just want him gone from the team permanently!!  It's BEEN time to move on.

  

QFT! 

seeing his name wants me to go outside in this rain shawshank redemption style and scream from the top of my lungs in anger! 

 

what makes my day worse? we just hired a guy that from seattle whos a huge seahawks fan and we're already going back and forth