**OFFICIAL** 2018 FANTASY FOOTBALL THREAD

[macbk]

wanted to snag him late

Same here. Njoku too I'm sure will go earlier than expected.

TE seems pretty deep this season tho.

 

[gtmorgan23]

Who all has their draft this weekend?

 

[buc em]

Who all has their draft this weekend?

Have both of mine on Sunday. One at 2PM, the other at 9:30PM.

Told my girl don’t bother me at all on that day

 

[Bert.]

Who all has their draft this weekend?

Main league, live in person draft. $500 league

im scared

 

[macbk]

Waiting to find out the date for my work league. My main league that I commish, we're drafting 9/5. Reminds me, I need to order our board.

Main league, live in person draft. $500 league

im scared

Damn I could never.

 

[Bert.]

nah not scared of the money, we usually draft the Sunday before the season starts, now we have to draft earlier.

just feel unprepared this year, although I didn't go in too deep last year and did well enough to go 11-2 just to lose in the finals but came away with a little over 2k

just too many under the radar players and rookies to keep up with and its kinda overwhelming

 

[nick.]

Sounds like Jamaal Williams is the Packers RB to own

 

[buc em]

Sounds like Jamaal Williams is the Packers RB to own

I just don’t know how early he’ll possibly go.

How early is Sony Michel going now?

 

[nick.]

I just don’t know how early he’ll possibly go.

How early is Sony Michel going now?

Williams goes in the late 7th & Michel goes in the early 8th.

Much rather have Williams at those prices. One is in line to be a 3 down back in a good offense while the other has a history of fumbles & knee injuries with a difficult path to consistent touches.

 

[stick]

Exactly. Rodgers can literally get you close to 30 points per week and a bad week for him is like 16-18. Most other QB’s are getting you that 16-18 per week on average and mixing in 2-3 of those big 30 point or so performances.

I’d have Kamara and Howard/McCoy/McKinnon locked in as my two RB starters each week then Tyreek and some combo of Sanders/Hogan/Marvin/Goodwin/Crabtree/Woods/Edelman/Crowder as my WR2 and flex.

Value can be had later in the draft at RB with guys like Peyton Barber, Chris Carson, James White/Sony Michel if he’s dropping, Chris Thompson, CJ Anderson, Kerryon Johnson, etc.

Ehhh I don't know about that. The top QB off the board rarely finishes as the top QB at the end of the season. And the top 12 is always littered with late round guys or undrafted guys.

Here's last season's top 12 in one of my 6pt/pass TD, 1pt/25 pass yds leagues. No bonus points or anything like that:

The only highly drafted QB who was "worth" his draft price was Tom Brady, who finished at #2 overall. However he only presented a 3.5 ppg difference over the 12th ranked guy. The rest of the list is almost exclusively filled with players who could've been drafted in the later rounds or picked up as free agents. Here's 2017 QB ADP for reference.

Granted, Rodgers was hurt last year and this is only one year of data etc etc. But this trend is something that has been happening for years. This is a pretty old article and it's a long read, but it's still very relevant.

There's always this myth that having a top QB that you drafted early is a humongous advantage. It's not true.

 

[jonwin]

No NT money leagues (PPR) that need some team spots to fill lol?

I have my main leagues set but like playing in a NT league b/c I have a FF problem.

 

[junglejim]

Ehhh I don't know about that. The top QB off the board rarely finishes as the top QB at the end of the season. And the top 12 is always littered with late round guys or undrafted guys.

Here's last season's top 12 in one of my 6pt/pass TD, 1pt/25 pass yds leagues. No bonus points or anything like that:

The only highly drafted QB who was "worth" his draft price was Tom Brady, who finished at #2 overall. However he only presented a 3.5 ppg difference over the 12th ranked guy. The rest of the list is almost exclusively filled with players who could've been drafted in the later rounds or picked up as free agents. Here's 2017 QB ADP for reference.

Granted, Rodgers was hurt last year and this is only one year of data etc etc. But this trend is something that has been happening for years. This is a pretty old article and it's a long read, but it's still very relevant.

There's always this myth that having a top QB that you drafted early is a humongous advantage. It's not true.

This is a little misleading since Rodgers got hurt last year, so here is my thing with this. For the most part it is correct, your numbers are a little different due to 6 points for a TD. But in Rodgers last full healthy year in 2016, he scored 380 points in standard scoring. Last year using those same stats, the best QB was Russell Wilson at 350, then a combo of Cam newton, Tom Brady, and Alex smith right at about 300.

Then you have your next tier of guys with Brees, Roethlesberger, and Rivers at about 270 points.

Depending on how you feel on Russell Wilson, I dont think he replicates those numbers from last year given the amount of receivers the seahawks let go. So if Rodgers scores 80 more points than the next tier of guys, thats an extra 5 points per game. If he scores almost 100 more than your Brees and Rivers tier, thats 6.3 ppg (damn near a starting TE position). Thats a huge advantage if you already have your RBs set and a decent WR. Rodgers is the only quarterback that I feel this way about taking early, because when he he is on, he is a head and shoulders above everyone else.

You wont get me to take Brady or Brees early for the extra 1 or 2 points per week they will get, but for 5-6 points per week, im willing to take the chance on Rodgers as my 4th player off the board. I still wouldnt take him in the first 3 rounds, but if he falls to me in the fourth, im taking him every time because of the advantage he gives you.

Every year Rodgers has played 16 games, he has had anywhere from 350-400 points. Thats a big leg up if you dont want to stream QBs

 

[stick]

This is a little misleading since Rodgers got hurt last year, so here is my thing with this. For the most part it is correct, your numbers are a little different due to 6 points for a TD. But in Rodgers last full healthy year in 2016, he scored 380 points in standard scoring. Last year using those same stats, the best QB was Russell Wilson at 350, then a combo of Cam newton, Tom Brady, and Alex smith right at about 300.

Then you have your next tier of guys with Brees, Roethlesberger, and Rivers at about 270 points.

Depending on how you feel on Russell Wilson, I dont think he replicates those numbers from last year given the amount of receivers the seahawks let go. So if Rodgers scores 80 more points than the next tier of guys, thats an extra 5 points per game. If he scores almost 100 more than your Brees and Rivers tier, thats 6.3 ppg (damn near a starting TE position). Thats a huge advantage if you already have your RBs set and a decent WR. Rodgers is the only quarterback that I feel this way about taking early, because when he he is on, he is a head and shoulders above everyone else.

You wont get me to take Brady or Brees early for the extra 1 or 2 points per week they will get, but for 5-6 points per week, im willing to take the chance on Rodgers as my 4th player off the board. I still wouldnt take him in the first 3 rounds, but if he falls to me in the fourth, im taking him every time because of the advantage he gives you.

Every year Rodgers has played 16 games, he has had anywhere from 350-400 points. Thats a big leg up if you dont want to stream QBs

We'll agree to disagree .

 

[jayt1202]

I'm with the notion of drafting QB's later on since you definitely risk a guy like Rodgers either under performing or getting hurt. Would much rather take a low tier 1-2 guy later after I've already established 75% of my starting RB/WRs.

 

[fatpat1251]

RB's are flying early.... I have auction draft coming up where i gonna snag at least a top back.... hope Zeke is discounted due to Frederick news... Hope he comes back real life...

 

[ozboi]

Who all has their draft this weekend?

Sunday 4 PM PST for me

 

[buc em]

I'm with the notion of drafting QB's later on since you definitely risk a guy like Rodgers either under performing or getting hurt. Would much rather take a low tier 1-2 guy later after I've already established 75% of my starting RB/WRs.

You run the risk of any player getting hurt. But underperforming? This is Aaron ****ing Rodgers.

 

[junglejim]

You run the risk of any player getting hurt. But underperforming? This is Aaron ****ing Rodgers.

Historically speaking, an underperforming year for Aaron Rodgers is 300 points. That is still more than everyone other than Wilson scored last year and I dont see him doing that again.

 

[Liquid Swords]

I don't mind drafting Rodgers early at all especially if stacked with Adams. I did that yesterday in a draft, Took Gurley at the 2nd pick

 

[atransta]

Worried. I probably won’t be taking him in either of my leagues cause Peyton Barber isn’t spectacular but he doesn’t **** up and unless he ****s up or gets hurt I don’t particularly see RoJo seizing control of the backfield anytime soon this season.

Thanks for the input bro. DAMNIT SHOOT ME NOW, oh well at least I drafted Dion Lewis for hte flex spot just in case RoJo didn't pan out. But probably couldn't have gotten a quality player in the 5th round.

 

[Bert.]

I don't mind drafting Rodgers early at all especially if stacked with Adams. I did that yesterday in a draft, Took Gurley at the 2nd pick

I myself can't draft QB early man

only time when I didn't know **** was when I took Peyton early but that was the year he threw for 50+ TD I went 11-2 that year

 

[buc em]

Thanks for the input bro. DAMNIT SHOOT ME NOW, oh well at least I drafted Dion Lewis for hte flex spot just in case RoJo didn't pan out. But probably couldn't have gotten a quality player in the 5th round.

What round did Peyton Barber go in?

 

[promac]

I felt a lot more confident in my team last year (which I won). 12 team ppr, I had the 8th pick. Not sure how I feel about this draft. I was lit by round 9

 

[atransta]

What round did Peyton Barber go in?

Round 13, 147th pick. Wonder if i should try to flip RoJo off to one of my homeboys who is pretty high on him.

 

[651akathepaul]

Here's a name for a deep deep PPR sleeper: Phillip Lindsay. He was horribly underrated in college and went undrafted, but from what I've been reading, he went from a player not likely to make the cut, straight to a guy that Denver wants to use in many different aspects and a virtual lock to make the team. He may not play for a while (as a lead back. Sounds like he's going to make an immediate impact on STs), but if RB depth becomes a concern for Denver after an injury or two, this guy could sneak up on people. Maybe just keep an eye on him and the Denver RB situation, but don't draft him. I did, just so I can tell folks in my league that I knew about him from day 1...but don't let your ego get in the way like me.