**OFFICIAL** 2018 FANTASY FOOTBALL THREAD

[nick.]

You playing in a 32 team league?

 

[651akathepaul]

You playing in a 32 team league?

Not at all...Like I said, it was an ego thing. He's going to see the field and if there are any injuries to their backfield, his volume could increase quite a bit. He does it all.

 

[651akathepaul]

Out of Calvin Ridley and Courtland Sutton, who would want and why?

 

[buc em]

Round 13, 147th pick. Wonder if i should try to flip RoJo off to one of my homeboys who is pretty high on him.

That’s crazy man. I praaay he’s still available that late in my leagues.

 

[macbk]

What's everyones boldest take for the fantasy season?

 

[651akathepaul]

What's everyones boldest take for the fantasy season?

I kinda already went there with Phillip Lindsay. I think he will have some good numbers.

I think McCaffery will be a top 3 PPR player...a beast.

 

[ozboi]

Jimmy Gesus with the 4s

 

[nick.]

I think McCaffery will be a top 3 PPR player...a beast.

I have 7th pick in a 10 team PPR league. Strongly considering taking CMC 14th overall if Fournette, Gordon, and Cook are picked.

 

[promac]

I have 7th pick in a 10 team PPR league. Strongly considering taking CMC 14th overall if Fournette, Gordon, and Cook are picked.

Good luck, he went 9th in my 12 team league

 

[651akathepaul]

Fournette and Gordon will bust out.

CMC and Cook should be your first two options, if PPR.

 

[nick.]

You think so?

Volume is king, especially for RB's, and they're each in line for 20+ touches a week.

 

[buc em]

Marquise Goodwin is a top 15 WR in fantasy if he stays healthy for the full season.

 

[flyerthandelta]

Need 2 more players for the League on ESPN...draft is on Sunday

 

[gtmorgan23]

I pick 11th in a 12 team PPR league.

I plan on taking M Gordon at the 11th and then CMC with my second pick.

 

[gtmorgan23]

It seems to work everytime in mock drafts. If gordon gets snagged then Ill take Cook with my first pick.

 

[stick]

Had my first draft last night. Here's how it went.

It's a 12 teamer, scoring is PPR with 6pt/pass TD. Lineup is 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX, 1K. Key thing to note is the 2 FLEX positions. This makes it ripe for Zero RB. I drafted out of the 8 slot.

1 - Odell Beckham
2 - Rob Gronkowski
3 - Jarvis Landry
4 - Doug Baldwin
5 - Royce Freeman
6 - Will Fuller
7 - Tevin Coleman
8 - Tarik Cohen
9 - DJ Moore
10 - Ronald Jones
11 - Chris Godwin
12 - Marcus Mariota
13 - Matt Breida
14 - Mike Wallace
15 - Eric Ebron
16 - Philip Rivers
17 - Matt Bryant

Nice Zero RB squad here. Beckham/Landry/Baldwin are perennial top-15 at the position and Will Fuller gives me a nice homerun option with big breakout potential as my FLEX2. Gronk should feast this year with how shallow the NE receiving corps is, especially early in the season while Edelman is suspended. DJ Moore and Chris Godwin are lottery tickets.

I grabbed Royce Freeman as my first RB because I really like his workhorse potential in DEN. However to start the season I'll probably deploy Coleman and Cohen as my RBs. They should hopefully supply a solid 10ppg while I wait to see how the situations with Royce Freeman and Ronald Jones play out. And if anything were to happen to Devonta Freeman I have a locked and loaded RB1 in Coleman. I do wish I landed some more of my RB targets but I was sniped a few times (namely Aaron Jones and Latavius Murray both going the pick before I was set to take them). I'll just have to be extra active on the waiver wire, which I would need to be anyway with a Zero RB squad.

Really happy with this team, but I know you guys won't like the RBs .

 

[getback]

Yeah unless it's Antonio Brown in the later pick of the 1st round, I always draft a RB. Surprised you didn't end up with someone like Fournette, Gordon, Barkley, Freeman, McCaffrey at the 8th spot.

 

[junglejim]

Yeah unless it's Antonio Brown in the later pick of the 1st round, I always draft a RB. Surprised you didn't end up with someone like Fournette, Gordon, Barkley, Freeman, McCaffrey at the 8th spot.

Thats kind of the point of zero rb though. You basically solidify all your other positions first, then hammer our running backs with high upside potential like Coleman and Freeman.

But my bold prediction is Chris Carson ends up as a top 15 RB. Loved the guy last year, dude looks like an absolute savage in camp and preseason this year.

Marquise Goodwin is a top 15 WR in fantasy if he stays healthy for the full season.

I absolutely love goodwin where he is drafted, but my problem with him is he doesnt really score touchdowns. He had damn near a 1,000 yards receiving last year but only had 2 TDs. When they get in the red zone it seems like it either goes to a TE or they do a pick type play for Trent Taylor, but if he can scored 5 or 6 TDs somehow, I could see this happening.

 

[getback]

Yeah I definitely get the concept, I even tried it last year in an auction league I ended up with Antonio and Julio. Just not for me.

 

[junglejim]

Yeah I definitely get the concept, I even tried it last year in an auction league I ended up with Antonio and Julio. Just not for me.

Yeah im not a fan either unless its a deeper league. I tried it in a 10 man league last year and got demolished. When everyone has stud rbs and pretty good wrs it makes for a real ****** start to the season before people get hurt. I started 0-5 in one league, but ended up finishing 4th. It also highly depends on how your waivers are set up. This league was a rolling waiver pick up system, so it was hard as hell to get a top waiver pick up if someone gets hurt.

The only way I would ever do it again is if I had a top pick for one rb that I know is going to be a stud like Gurley. Then I would feel comfortable hammering out WRs and TEs the next few rounds.

On a side note, does anyone have a good list of team beat writers to follow on twitter? I've got a good 10 or so teams I havent really done much research on and want to know who is looking good in their camps.

 

[macbk]

I pick 11th in a 12 team PPR league.

I plan on taking M Gordon at the 11th and then CMC with my second pick.

I'm in the same exact spot as you. Leaning Gordon if he's there, but didn't think to consider CMC. What are your plans for WR then?

 

[eracism]

Offensive line rankings

https://www.profootballfocus.com/ne...ine-rankings-all-32-teams-units-entering-2018

 

[stick]

Yeah unless it's Antonio Brown in the later pick of the 1st round, I always draft a RB. Surprised you didn't end up with someone like Fournette, Gordon, Barkley, Freeman, McCaffrey at the 8th spot.

Yeah my objective was to ignore the RB position until round 6 or so. I'd rather grab sure fire WRs early and chase the upside of mid-late round RBs later.

Thats kind of the point of zero rb though. You basically solidify all your other positions first, then hammer our running backs with high upside potential like Coleman and Freeman.

But my bold prediction is Chris Carson ends up as a top 15 RB. Loved the guy last year, dude looks like an absolute savage in camp and preseason this year.



I absolutely love goodwin where he is drafted, but my problem with him is he doesnt really score touchdowns. He had damn near a 1,000 yards receiving last year but only had 2 TDs. When they get in the red zone it seems like it either goes to a TE or they do a pick type play for Trent Taylor, but if he can scored 5 or 6 TDs somehow, I could see this happening.

Wish I could've gotten Carson as well but he went a few picks before me in the 6th round.

Here's an interesting article on positive TD regression candidates at WR. Scroll to #4 for Goodwin.

Spoiler

Wide Receivers Who Should Have Scored More: Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates
June 5, 2018 | By Michael Dubner

Due to the variance in wide receiver touchdowns year-to-year and other stats only weakly predicting next-season receiving TDs, regression can be used to identify wide receivers whose 2017 receiving touchdowns didn’t align with their expected touchdown total.

WR Touchdown Regression Equation
You can see my methodology behind this equation here. But the jist of it is:

Expected reTDS = 0.139 + (-0.015 * Total reRTGS) + (0.008 * Total reYDS)

• For positive touchdown regression: look for WRs with a lot of yards, but few touchdowns.
• For negative touchdown regression: look for WRs with more touchdowns than their total receiving yards would predict, even if they have a lot of targets.

* Note: a WR underperforming his receiving TDs expectation in 2017 doesn’t mean he’s going to overcompensate with even more touchdowns in 2018 to correct that deficit. Rather, he should score at a rate1 closer to what his opportunity suggests.2

Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates
1. Julio Jones: Actual: 3; Expected: 9.5; Difference: -6.5

Jones’ -6.5 TD difference is the third largest underperformance over the past decade, behind only Calvin Johnson‘s -7.9 and Andre Johnson‘s -6.5 2012 seasons. Scoring just three TDs on 1,444 receiving yards is an even greater outlier considering he saw 19 red-zone targets (eighth among WRs). Additionally, the WR TD expectation equation suggests that when given an equal number of targets, a WR with a higher yards per target (YPT) is expected to score more TDs — Jones ranked eighth in YPT (9.. If Jones and Matt Ryan (whose 2017 TD rate of 3.8 percent was well below his career average of 4.6 percent) both positively regress in the touchdown department, Jones could be a massive value at the Rounds 1-2 turn.

2. Michael Thomas: Actual: 5; Expected 7.9; Difference: -2.9

Thomas’ underachieving touchdown total is highly correlated with Drew Brees’ low touchdown total. Brees threw his fewest touchdown passes (24) over the last 15 seasons, while still leading the league in yards per attempt (8.1) and completion percentage (an NFL record 72 percent). Even if the Saints continue to have a strong running game, their 23 rushing TDs should negatively regress, as they had five more rushing scores than any other team. And even if the Saints defense remains strong, we shouldn’t expect them to play with a lead during 55.5 percent of game time (third) or a multi-score lead during 28.5 percent of their offensive snaps. More negative or neutral game scripts would lead to an increase in pass attempts, as the Saints’ pass-to-run ratio dipped from 59 percent in neutral game scripts to 42 percent when playing with a multi-score lead.

3. Adam Thielen: Actual: 4; Expected: 8.2; Difference: -4.24

Despite nearly identical targets and yards, Thielen scored just one TD before the Vikings’ Week 9 bye, but found the end zone three times in the second half of the season. While Case Keenum played well, new QB Kirk Cousins is still an improvement. Expect Thielen to score at a rate closer to the second half of 2017.

4. Pierre Garcon: Actual: 0; Expected: 3.1; Difference -3.1 and Marquise Goodwin: Actual: 2; Expected: 6.3; Difference: -4.3

I’m not projecting a 32-year old Garcon recovering from a neck injury with a career high six receiving TDs or a 5-foot-9-inch, 183-pound Goodwin with eight receiving TDs in five NFL seasons to suddenly catch double-digit scores. But the 49ers threw just 15 passing TDs in 2017, and they look to be an ascending offense captained by Jimmy Garoppolo.

5. DeVante Parker: ActuaL 1; Expected: 4.1; Difference: -3.1

Parker hasn’t lived up to his first-round draft pedigree, but should see positive touchdown regression and increased opportunity with Jarvis Landry‘s 161 targets (27 percent target share) up for grabs.

Bonus: Status Quo Candidate
1. Antonio Brown: Actual: 9; Expected 10; Difference -1

Brown had the highest receiving touchdown expectation (10) in 2017, and of the 14 WRs to score eight or more receiving touchdowns, Brown is the only one that actually underperformed his expected touchdown total. Therefore, Brown (the No. 1 WR in points per game) should have actually scored more points. Since 2013, Brown has averaged 10.4 TDs per year, and a ridiculous 10.9 expected TDs per year.

Conclusion
Regression isn’t the end all be all, as we must account for opportunity changes, team situation, and Average Draft Position (ADP). But regression is a quick way to identify WRs who over- or underperformed in the touchdown department. Stay tuned for a look at which players overperformed in 2017, and will likely see their touchdown totals decrease in 2018.

 

[flyerthandelta]

One more slot open...ESPN Standard

 

[junglejim]

I think someone in here drafted Hurst. I would think 4 weeks with a screw in the foot is being extremely optimistic.