1. Homecourt vs. Trendlines: The central mystery of Game 5 is whether what we've seen so far is simply about homecourt advantage or whether the series is evolving in a more linear way. The Clipper optimist would say both teams have merely held serve on their home floor. That these two teams are fairly evenly matched, that homecourt has been the tipping point, and that now the Clippers have a 2-to-1 homecourt advantage in a best 2-of-3 series. Could be.
But the Grizzlies optimist would counter that what we've really seen is a solid, direct trend, with the Grizzlies growing stronger each game. Consider these trendlines:
Outcome:
Game 1 — Clippers +21
Game 2 — Clippers +2
Game 3 — Grizzlies +12
Game 4 — Grizzlies +21
Rebound Differential/Second-Chance Points:
Game 1 — Clippers +24/+20
Game 2 — Clippers +2/Grizzlies +4
Game 3 — Grizzlies +12/+18
Game 4 — Grizzlies +17/+20
Marc Gasol/Zach Randolph Production:
Game 1 — 29-6-8
Game 2 — 30-15-2
Game 3 — 43-19-4
Game 4 — 48-22-6
Part of this is how well Randolph has played, but another part of it is usage. Randolph is leading the team in scoring so far in the series, but the offense is primarily moving through Conley and Gasol, and that's the best path for the Grizzlies. This means getting the ball to Randolph in close, in positions to quikcly catch and shoot or drive rather than a heavy diet of pause-button isolations.