***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[Nike Jordan]

Great painting

Trump has never looked leaner

Looks like John Candy to me.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

osh kosh bosh even your OG has woken up to what I have been saying for a while...




Me right now...

well to be fair I jumped off the Ron train when he did the 6 week. abortion ban.
he's making the same mistake every Republican makes going against Trump.

people criticize the left for letting activists meme them into unpopular policies

but Ron Desantis is unironically the perfect example of this.
he's let weirdo right wing culture war activists kill his chance against Trump.

I thought he showed solid political instincts early, but he's totally burned up all that good will.d

 

[WASPS ANDD ASPS]

Yeah, it’s patently ridiculous that they’re no longer using legal precedent to make rulings - they’re imagining theoretical scenarios and deciding based on how that makes them feel.

That’s not how it works - that’s not how anything works.

Nah forreal this **** is spooky.

The cheers and applause after El Trumpito said he gwtting rid of Diversity Equity and Inclusion programs is

 

[osh kosh bosh]

His heel turn has been amazing. His model has been off since 2016 so he had to get a new flow. This is his scumbag flow.

people keep saying this, but its wrong, his model has not been "off"

it's been by far the best election forecasting model.
He gave Trump the best shot at winning in 2016, constantly warned people when other models were giving hillary 95%+ shot at winning

Nate Silver hopped on Substack and is letting the salt flow...


"I really hope ABC will stops using the brand they paid me ton of money for, and helped market for years, so I don't get associated with it. This is coming from the guys the basically fired" is an interesting request.

tbh I sympathize with Nate,

I would be unbelievably salty every time some innumerate pundit who makes predictions at a rate worse than chance tries to get on him about his model.

I would literally turn into the joker if that happened to me.

 

[Wargames]

well to be fair I jumped off the Ron train when he did the 6 week. abortion ban.
he's making the same mistake every Republican makes going against Trump.

people criticize the left for letting activists meme them into unpopular policies

but Ron Desantis is unironically the perfect example of this.
he's let weirdo right wing culture war activists kill his chance against Trump.

I thought he showed solid political instincts early, but he's totally burned up all that good will.d

I’m assuming it’s because he is deep in a Florida echo chamber. Plus I would put money on the fact that if he makes it to the general he’ll try to paint Biden as old and weak which is also a view based on being in the echo chamber. Biden has enough policy wins it could backfire into “what have you done besides be a nasty little ****?” but its the only thing that makes sense, try to out right Trump on policy and then try to go after Biden’s character and ability to lead in a general election.

Keep in mind I also think he might be trying to set himself up to run in 2028, but that if a lifetime in politics, and Trump might neuter him on a national level if a insult goes viral so it’s just a hunch.

 

[Wargames]

Nah forreal this **** is spooky.

The cheers and applause after El Trumpito said he gwtting rid of Diversity Equity and Inclusion programs is

Time to update DEI to JEDI Justice, Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion and start working on the return of our rights.

 

[1995]

His heel turn has been amazing. His model has been off since 2016 so he had to get a new flow. This is his scumbag flow.

I have the secret code to unlock this in Street Fighter 6

PM if interested

 

[RustyShackleford]

tbh I sympathize with Nate,

I would be unbelievably salty every time some innumerate pundit who makes predictions at a rate worse than chance tries to get on him about his model.

I would literally turn into the joker if that happened to me.

Elliot Morris is not an innumerate pundit though. He is a data scientist and built the Economist's model. He is Nate's replacement at 538.

Nate has been taking shots at him for a while, and they had a blow-up on Twitter. He says subtweeting dude.

Also, Nate sold the 538 brand. If I remember correctly there was a bidding war for him when he blew up after 2012, he had offers to him the brand, but Disney was writing the fattest check.

It seems like a bit bad faith of him to take a shot at a dude he doesn't like, for asking a fair question, and taking issue with a situation regarding 538 that he created with his decisions.

Mans gets zero sympathy from me. He just sounds salty and petty.

 

[Belgium]

So I binge listened to the entire “New York State of Crime” series by the American Scandal podcast yesterday…

Bruh New York politicians are wild
Governor Cuomo obstructed his own anti-corruption Moreland commission and then prematurely shut it down when the commission got a bit too close to home.

Then proceeds to still stay in office until 2021, only getting oustered due to the sexual misconduct allegations

Did New Yorkers just not pay attention to the period around the Moreland commission? Or were the other governor candidates somehow worse?

 

[biggie62]

So I binge listened to the entire “New York State of Crime” series by the American Scandal podcast yesterday…

Bruh New York politicians are wild
Governor Cuomo obstructed his own anti-corruption Moreland commission and then prematurely shut it down when the commission got a bit too close to home.

Then proceeds to still stay in office until 2021, only getting oustered due to the sexual misconduct allegations

Did New Yorkers just not pay attention to the period around the Moreland commission? Or were the other governor candidates somehow worse?

A combo of both.

 

[Wargames]

So I binge listened to the entire “New York State of Crime” series by the American Scandal podcast yesterday…

Bruh New York politicians are wild
Governor Cuomo obstructed his own anti-corruption Moreland commission and then prematurely shut it down when the commission got a bit too close to home.

Then proceeds to still stay in office until 2021, only getting oustered due to the sexual misconduct allegations

Did New Yorkers just not pay attention to the period around the Moreland commission? Or were the other governor candidates somehow worse?

I am pretty knowledgeable about NY politics and I never heard about it until Sheldon Silver was arrested for what they found out when the federal investigators looked into why the commission was shut down. By then Cuomo involvement wasn’t part of the headlines because Silver taking bribes became the story.

Cuomo was notorious for doing stuff like that though. He was very efficient at using bureaucratic Moves to cover himself. It’s why sexual harassment took him down, you can hide that in paper work.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Elliot Morris is not an innumerate pundit though. He is a data scientist and built the Economist model. He is Nate's replacement at 538.

Nate has been taking shots at him for a while, and they had a blow-up on Twitter. He says subtweeting dude.

Also, Nate sold the 538 brand. If I remember correctly there was a bidding war for him when he blew up after 2012, he had offers to him the brand, but Disney was righting the fattest check.

It seems like a bit bad faith of him to take a shot at a dude he doesn't like, for asking a fair question, and taking issue with a situation regarding 538 that he created with his decisions.

Mans gets zero sympathy from me. He just sounds salty and petty.

To be clear I was talking about Nate attitude in general not about the specifics of this guys criticism.

I'm just saying I'd have a bad attitude in general about everything, rational or irrational.

 

[Belgium]

I am pretty knowledgeable about NY politics and I never heard about it until Sheldon Silver was arrested for what they found out when the federal investigators looked into why the commission was shut down. By then Cuomo involvement wasn’t part of the headlines because Silver taking bribes became the story.

Cuomo was notorious for doing stuff like that though. He was very efficient at using bureaucratic Moves to cover himself. It’s why sexual harassment took him down, you can hide that in paper work.

Idk if or how much you and others here listen to podcasts but this series in particular was really interesting imo.
Sheldon Silver was the most flagrantly crooked but I was kinda shocked that I hadn't heard about all this corruption, given my extensive interest in US politics and scandals.
I can't drive due to my epilepsy, which forces me to spend many hours on public transport, so I have lots of time to consume a ton of podcasts. I usually have one on when working from home too.

The New York State of Crime series is 4 episodes.


Speaking of politics and podcasts, I figured I'd share my list of politics-related podcasts. In case anyone ever wonders if I listen to domestic political podcasts, the answer is no.

Serious Trouble
https://www.serioustrouble.show/podcast
Hosted by Ken White (goes by Popehat on Twitter) and Josh Barro. It's pretty lighthearted, easily digestible and Ken White is a funny dude.
This one's paid (with free episodes). During the Trump presidency, they hosted the All The President's Lawyers podcast.

The Lawfare Podcast

Bit of everything here, largely focused on law and/or US national security/intelligence. Generally hosted by Benjamin Wittes.
I'd say this is moderately digestible, some episodes definitely require at least a mild understanding of the topic and/or underlying subjects.
Example:

The National Security Law Podcast

Title speaks for itself really. It's hosted by Steve Vladeck and Bobby Chesney, both law professors and legal scholars.
You've probably seen tweets by Steve Vladeck in this thread regarding Supreme Court news etc.
I wouldn't describe this as easily digestible but for the topic, I think this is about as easy as it's going to get.
At minimum you definitely need a basic understanding of the US judicial system (particularly the federal court system) and relatively common judicial/court terms (standing, certiorari/cert, ... etc).
Given that I'm neither a lawyer or American and I don't have the google stuff, it's not that difficult to get into.

 

[IATT]

dwalk31 show back up yet?

 

[Mark Antony]

The view some black Republicans take that simply because “dems didn’t do anything for” to voting for those that actively don’t want you to have anything assuming they’ll give you something is so stupid. The Clarence Thomas philosophy. Take a moment, take a breath and assess situations outside yourself and stop letting your vote swing so wildly from side to side. Doesn’t make sense for a rational person.

 

[IATT]

 

[gry60]

Take a moment, take a breath and assess situations outside yourself

Lol

That's what makes them conservative, being unable to put themselves in other people's shoes. You always have to remind them that other people are not like them.

 

[IATT]

 

[aepps20]

people keep saying this, but its wrong, his model has not been "off"

it's been by far the best election forecasting model.
He gave Trump the best shot at winning in 2016, constantly warned people when other models were giving hillary 95%+ shot at winning

If I recall and please correct me if I’m wrong, but his model still had Hillary at 70+% in 16 so yes it was better than others but 70% in politics is still high and IMO played into some of the apathy people had in 16 about voting on the dem side. Back in 08 his model called 49 of 50 states correctly and I think in 12 he called them 50 of 50 correctly.


The most recent performance by 538 in the last midterms was terrible. Predicted that Republicans would have a 17 house seat advantage which in reality became 4 and if not for Clownmo and the NY Supremes on the NY gerrymandering case the house and Senate remain in our hands.

I understand that modeling of this type will miss because I think polling in America has gotten harder, more tribal and less accurate but as his prestine record has become less prestine he's revealed himself and his actual political takes are not good. He once described his views as in between Gary Johnson and Mitt Romney.

 

[dacomeup]

The view some black Republicans take that simply because “dems didn’t do anything for” to voting for those that actively don’t want you to have anything assuming they’ll give you something is so stupid. The Clarence Thomas philosophy. Take a moment, take a breath and assess situations outside yourself and stop letting your vote swing so wildly from side to side. Doesn’t make sense for a rational person.

As much as I detest Clarence, his philosophy is a bit more complicated than this.

 

[Mark Antony]

As much as I detest Clarence, his philosophy is a bit more complicated than this.

I'm aware.

 

[Armada]

dwalk31 show back up yet?

This was obviously the next play some people really tricked themselves into thinking this was really about merit and fairness

 

[Based Jesus]

Just existing is divisive to these people

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]