The case for Tim Scott is mainly an innocuous political take of a more mainstream non-Trumpy conservative with more moderate rhetoric being a tougher opponent to beat than Trump. Mainly because of them being better at winning swing voters.
But Osh's Tim Scott-specific argument relies on some significant assumptions.
-First, the argument for Scott in a general election seems to be based on the assumption that he replicates Trump's numbers and trends and does better with swing conservative-leaning voters.
So white rural voters are going to be as excited for Scott as Trump? Will Scott replicate the splits in educated vs. non-educated,? Will he be able to replicate Trump's numbers with Latinos?
Even if he makes inroads with black men, are they gonna be in the right places? He needs to flip the black men In WI, PA, MI (we have a recent example of a black moderate not being enough to flip a Senate seat), and GA.
Hillary Clinton thought she could replicate the Obama coalition, and her slipping in a few places cost her big.
I think the same worries should apply to Tim Scott. That him not being Trump will help in some areas, and hurt in others, and it is hard to say how things shake out given the margins for victory are razor thin.
I think a more normie conservative without the baggage of Trump would claw back some Trump-hating moderate conservatives. But that might not be enough on aggregate.
-This whole VP angel seems like even more of a reach. Who is he going to be VP to, Trump? If so that will make him a well-known far-right conservative reactionary. He has a positive net rating right now mainly because he is unknown.
Trump will be his identity after four years of trying to sugarcoat his bull****.
The 2028 Republican primary will be tough on him because he can either run under the Trump banner to protect his right flank which makes him toxic for the general.
Or try to moderate which hurts him with far-right primary voters.
Also, he is not gonna be facing Joe Biden in 2028. That article
osh kosh bosh
posted specifically talked about his prospect vs. 2024 Biden.
In 2028 after four more years of Trump, he will be facing a fresh face on the Dem ticket that will be younger, more dynamic, with an activated Dem base behind them. All the on-paper positives with his identity get washed away if he has to face some like Warnock. Someone younger, also from the deep South, and seemingly a better political talent.
One of my Econometric professors said that a good economics paper depends on the assumptions made at the beginning. How plausible they are, and how to set the framework for what is coming. A good economist that writes good papers knows how to do the right amount of world-building with the right assumptions.
But if you make too many assumptions, and have to do too much world-building, you become a fiction writer.
At this point, the case for Tim Scott seems based on too many stars aligning, and too much hand waving. If things change, my opinion will change.
But to me, it seems like Tim Scott needs to start praying to Ronald Regan and the white God he worships on some Uncle Ruckus steez if he wants to be president
He gonna be all the help he can get
