***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[dacomeup]

It’s really big well funded prediction market. So I think it's reasonable to use it as a crowd sourced data point

Yea, funded by Peter Thiel and basically a right wing Crypto betting platform. I can’t remember what it was you were citing their betting for a few weeks ago that they were way wrong on. I don’t think it’s reputable at this stage, regardless of its funding

 

[Cashflow]

 

[pmatic]

 

[Grine]

Trump says he doesn't trust the media, then his proof was "I saw it on television.”

 

[DaKidFromHaiti]

Trump says he doesn't trust the media, then his proof was "I saw it on television.”

He's not the brightest and his followers aren't either.

 

[Cashflow]

Everything is Wrestling!

 

[ALNotSure]

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Yea, funded by Peter Thiel and basically a right wing Crypto betting platform. I can’t remember what it was you were citing their betting for a few weeks ago that they were way wrong on. I don’t think it’s reputable at this stage, regardless of its funding

"This when funded by Peter thiel" is like George Soros for left wingers. Give it a rest.

By this definition I shouldn't use Paypal because it's "funded by Peter thiel"

Prediction markets are literally just the wisdom of crowds in action, it's not an infallible magic box. It's just an aggregation of what the betting public thinks is going to happen.

Sometimes the public is wrong sometimes they are right. But there's plenty of research that they do pretty well aggregating publically available information and giving good predictions.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1516179112#:~:text=The%20prediction%20markets%20predict%20the,reproducibility%20of%20published%20scientific%20results.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Narrator: It's Peter Thiel

I literally do not care.

the hyperventilating over peter theil is just sad at this point. treating this right wing crank like he's lex luthor.



if you're so triggered by peter Theil you can look at manifold markets,
the odds tend to be pretty similar.

 

[Lee And His Sneaks]

 

[IATT]

He's not the brightest and his followers aren't either.

dwalk31

 

[IATT]

 

[dacomeup]

By this definition I shouldn't use Paypal because it's "funded by Peter thiel"

Whataboutism that is totally unrelated here. Handwaiving the reputability of an unregulated, right wing funded betting market that’s primarily used by offshore bettors because it isn’t legal here is not the same as PayPal.

I’ll take a look at the study, but there are many valid criticisms of Polymarket. Including the lack of regulation, ability for it to be manipulated, etc. it’s not some left wing conspiracy to be skeptical of it.

 

[rolaholic]

 

[dblplay1212]

I literally do not care.

idk man seems like you care a lot about this subject.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Whataboutism that is totally unrelated here. Handwaiving the reputability of an unregulated, right wing funded betting market that’s primarily used by offshore bettors because it isn’t legal here is not the same as PayPal.

I’ll take a look at the study, but there are many valid criticisms of Polymarket. Including the lack of regulation, ability for it to be manipulated, etc. it’s not some left wing conspiracy to be skeptical of it.

1. ??? How is it whataboutism when YOU brought up Peter Thiel. Im responding to the claim you brought up.
The fact that is peter theil funded is not a reason to dismiss it out of hand without actual evidence. it's not a whataboutism.


2. Having a large prediction market where you purposely manipulating the numbers is a path to financial ruin.
There are other prediction markets. if your numbers are way off you are just creating arbitrage opportunities.

remember the people who bet on these things are the exact type of people who are searching for inefficient markets. if polymarket was off in a clear and predictable way.
you would have heard about it. there be tons of people exploiting it, skewing the numbers even further.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

idk man seems like you care a lot about this subject.

reading comprehension is an important skill.

i said I don't care about peter thiel's investment in polymarket.


and I don't, I do care about bad arguments, and dumb conspiracies.

 

[dblplay1212]

reading comprehension is an important skill.

i said I don't care about peter thiel's investment in polymarket.


and I don't, I do care about bad arguments, and dumb conspiracies.

You going hard for a Thiel backed gambling market is pretty weird but you do you man.

Pro tip: Gambling markets are not a good prediction market. They aren't setting the lines based on who they think will win, they are just trying to get even money on each side so they can walk with the juice.

 

[Public Enemy]

 

[Public Enemy]

 

[Public Enemy]

 

[osh kosh bosh]

You going hard for a Thiel backed gambling market is pretty weird but you do you man.

Pro tip: Gambling markets are not a good prediction market. They aren't setting the lines based on who they think will win, they are just trying to get even money on each side so they can walk with the juice.

1. I go hard on all dumb arguments.

2. there is no "line" in a prediction markets. its more like a stock market than a sports book.
your gambling comparison doesn't apply.

please make better arguments.

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

"This when funded by Peter thiel" is like George Soros for left wingers. Give it a rest.

I agree that there should be a more thoughtful analysis before crying “invalid”, but I also think that Thiel’s presence in a politically related activity should invite more of that thoughtful analysis than his involvement in PayPal. I stopped reading Murdoch publications years ago because it just got too tiring to try to identify, isolate, and ignore the way editorial bias wormed it’s way in so i understand the temptation to throw out all things Thiel.

Anyways, I think the relevant part of his criticism wasn’t the Thiel bit, but rather that the punters skew right. If true, this is a pretty significant source of bias that should probably be dealt with if you want to escalate the data point “markets moved like blah” into some relevant piece of information. To be fair, triangulating against a separate market is a good first step in dealing with it.

Silver “advising” the platform and publishing what is essentially investment newsletters vis a vis this market is a questionable look. Usually the standard for these things in mature markets is impropriety or the appearance of impropriety. That said, I’m not sure where the money is here in market manipulation unless these guys are on the other side of trades which itself would be far, far more problematic.

Osh, do you happen to know if there’s any regulatory framework for the prediction markets?

 

[osh kosh bosh]

What can we learn from scoring different election forecasts?

Analyzing the accuracy of different prediction platforms on the US 2022 midterm elections

firstsigma.substack.com

^this is from one elections cycle

I look at prediction markets as an aggregation of all the publicly available information.
538 does better than prediction markets, but that's based on polling, for questions that you can't poll or don't have time to poll...

I think prediction markets are a useful data point, i think they are at least (probably more) predictive than looking at some random pundit's analysis.

 

[heelsandeers]

She covered the spread for sure last night. Must be a huge pressure lifted

Did not expect Trump to come off that openly crazy