***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[osh kosh bosh]

I agree that there should be a more thoughtful analysis before crying “invalid”, but I also think that Thiel’s presence in a politically related activity should invite more of that thoughtful analysis than his involvement in PayPal. I stopped reading Murdoch publications years ago because it just got too tiring to try to identify, isolate, and ignore the way editorial bias wormed it’s way in so i understand the temptation to throw out all things Thiel.

Anyways, I think the relevant part of his criticism wasn’t the Thiel bit, but rather that the punters skew right. If true, this is a pretty significant source of bias that should probably be dealt with if you want to escalate the data point “markets moved like blah” into some relevant piece of information. To be fair, triangulating against a separate market is a good first step in dealing with it.

Silver “advising” the platform and publishing what is essentially investment newsletters vis a vis this market is a questionable look. Usually the standard for these things in mature markets is impropriety or the appearance of impropriety. That said, I’m not sure where the money is here in market manipulation unless these guys are on the other side of trades which itself would be far, far more problematic.

Osh, do you happen to know if there’s any regulatory framework for the prediction markets?

The markets are all offshore so im sure there is zero regulation.

but again just think about this logically, let's say he's manipulating the market somehow for political purposes.
wouldn't that be incredibly easy to sniff out? and doesn't that create really obvious arbitrage opportunities that would bankrupt this entire venture?

remember there are multiple, prediction markets.

and to what end, the people who follow these markets are political junkies, and degenerate gamblers what is the point of bumping trump or fading Kamala, what does that do to help or hurt either candidate?


my point is saying "PETER THIEL FUNDED" isn't enough for me to care, you at least have to have some theory of the case.

also
all the people who accuse Nate Silver of bias inevitably end up looking stupid.
They were mad at him when he said Biden was cooked early.
They are mad at him when he said Kamala's post convention polls were weak.

in the end it's his accuser who always end up looking hopelessly biased.

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

2. Having a large prediction market where you purposely manipulating the numbers is a path to financial ruin.
There are other prediction markets. if your numbers are way off you are just creating arbitrage opportunities.

remember the people who bet on these things are the exact type of people who are searching for inefficient markets. if polymarket was off in a clear and predictable way.
you would have heard about it. there be tons of people exploiting it, skewing the numbers even further.

The last time I looked at these markets -and it’s admittedly been a while- anything but the most egregious discrepancy couldn’t be arbed because the spreads are gigantic. Plus you had the issue of execution timing.

I wonder if there are liquidity providers / market makers? Do you know if there are?

 

[heelsandeers]

They always try to play up PA fracking like 95% of that industry aren't auto-republican votes

She barred him up with the quick 800,000 PA Poles reference

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

my point is saying "PETER THIEL FUNDED" isn't enough for me to care, you at least have to have some theory of the case.

Yeah, I thought it was clear that I mostly agree with you on this point.

 

[trappedintime]

Thiel is a schmuck but this same dumbass argument about Silver got trotted out by the psychotic Dems who believed Biden could still win when Silver showed with data he was done and buried by Trump.

His data, freely available to anyone here on Silver Bullet, is in line with 538 and most other aggregators and analytical models. There’s nothing to suggest he’s skewing anything toward Trump and there’s nothing to suggest Thiel has participated in this election cycle at all. Nor that polymarket is any worse than the dozens of other worthless prediction markets idiots toss their money at.

Move on, this is all ridiculously stupid.

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

I guess where I’m going in general is that efficient market hypothesis requires… efficient markets. There’s more safeguards than anyone outside the industry could begin to imagine to protect the edición efficiency of modern financial markets.

Lifting and shifting EMH without demonstrating that you’re applying it to markets that are “sufficiently efficient” is inviting model risk.

I got super excited about these markets like a decade ago, did a bunch of reading up, and walked away pretty disillusioned.

My line of questioning here is basically (and selfishly) trying to determine if they deserve another look.

(Edited typo)

 

[dragicon]

Do we have a source on this? It’s be hilarious if true.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

The last time I looked at these markets -and it’s admittedly been a while- anything but the most egregious discrepancy couldn’t be arbed because the spreads are gigantic. Plus you had the issue of execution timing.

I wonder if there are liquidity providers / market makers? Do you know if there are?

My understanding is polymarket provide liquidity in a decentralized way. Basically there are incentives to provide liquidity to a market where you can make money of each share traded. More liquidity you provide more money you can make off each trade. Other prediction markets may have different ways of doing it.

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

My understanding is polymarket provide liquidity in a decentralized way. Basically there are incentives to provide liquidity to a market where you can make money of each share traded. More liquidity you provide more money you can make off each trade. Other prediction markets may have different ways of doing it.

Sounds a bit like this

https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/markets/nyse/designated_market_makers.pdf

I wonder what the relevant data looks like.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

I guess where I’m going in general is that efficient market hypothesis requires… efficient markets. There’s more safeguards than anyone outside the industry could begin to imagine to protect the edición efficiency of modern financial markets.

Lifting and shifting EMH without demonstrating that you’re applying it to markets that are “sufficiently efficient” is inviting model risk.

I got super excited about these markets like a decade ago, did a bunch of reading up, and walked away pretty disillusioned.

My line of questioning here is basically (and selfishly) trying to determine if they deserve another look.

(Edited typo)

for me I think of it like prediction market vs pundit.

are the markets as efficient as we would like? I would assume not.


but if I were to post prediction from the median political pundit
or current price of a well funded prediction market


which data point would have more predictive value? I think the prediction market and the pundit are at the very least equal. (and i think this is being generous to pundits)
so if we are going to post tweets from pundits, I don't see why we wouldn't post the result of a prediction market?

seems to me the data point is useful.

 

[trappedintime]

We should probably ignore pundits on social media AND prediction markets if we had any sense

 

[had pants]

 

[B Sox]

Gotta be a tad awkward.

 

[Public Enemy]

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

for me I think of it like prediction market vs pundit.

Damning with faint praise. I tend to ignore pundits, but I admittedly don’t usually call out reposts here either.

Anyway, thanks for your replies.

 

[aepps20]

 

[dblplay1212]

1. I go hard on all dumb arguments.

2. there is no "line" in a prediction markets. its more like a stock market than a sports book.
your gambling comparison doesn't apply.

please make better arguments.

Polymarket is literally a gambling market. You can call it what you want but people are gambling my guy. They literally take bets.

 

[dblplay1212]

Fanduel is a sports prediction market.

- an unserious person

 

[TooOlfForThisIsh]

Speaking of efficient markets, the wisdom of the crowds, and Truth Social…

Some schadenfreude…

I really wanted to make money on this trade, but the cost to borrow made any negative delta position way too expensive to finance.

Still… love to see it.

I hope the market can stay rational long enough for Trump to be insolvent…

 

[05fordgt]

Hey MAGA ilk, what was that you all were saying? That she was "terrified" of him?

He's such a ******* snowflake!!

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Polymarket is literally a gambling market. You can call it what you want but people are gambling my guy but they literally take bets.

again please read.

for sports betting the line is set by the bookmaker to ensure action is equal on both sides.

prediction markets work more like the stock market where the prices are set dynamically based on trading activity.

a sports line is literally set by the sports book,
a prediction market is not and thus is harder to manipulate.

 

[aepps20]

What I appreciate is how Kam shook DJT's hand. He didn't know what to do after that

 

[aepps20]

Hard to see the left hook coming when you're shaking my hand

 

[dblplay1212]

again please read.

for sports betting the line is set by the bookmaker to ensure action is equal on both sides.

prediction markets work more like the stock market where the prices are set dynamically based on trading activity.

a sports line is literally set by the sports book,
a prediction market is not and thus is harder to manipulate.

lol these things are all offshore so they have no oversight and you just assume they are on the up and up. I can't take you seriously. Have a good day, man.

 

[Public Enemy]