***Official Political Discussion Thread***
- Thread in 'General' Thread starter Started by rico x hood,
- Start date
- May 14, 2013
- 14,966
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i think what he means by propensity is where a certain demographic falls on the likeliness to vote spectrum. Kamala doing better with older white men and women is a good thing because they have a high propensity to show up and vote. Even if trump carries that demographic, these types of gains are good when some counties will be determine by a few thousand votes. On the other hand, for black men, where is trump making his gains? black men as a whole vote less than other groups, but the ones that do vote, generally vote consistently and overwhelming vote democratic. Is trump making gains in favorability with black men that are less likely to vote anyway or in the demographic of black men that do vote consistently? My guess is the former and not the latter but we won't know for sure until exit polls come out.
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- May 3, 2009
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simple: because she's a woman.
- Jan 30, 2007
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- Dec 19, 2006
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I think I’m gonna stick to NT for results updates tonight, no tv for me dawg.
- Aug 23, 2019
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dblplay1212
Supporter
- May 23, 2016
- 20,367
- 40,455
Like I said, there's no magic line to get just enough turnout but not too much. Dems wants as much as they can bc overall that's good for them. Of course you can draw an imaginary line and say well this group will vote and this group won't but that's not realistic. Higher turnout = better for Kamala. Super low turnout just means a lot of old white people voted and we know how that goes.
dblplay1212
Supporter
- May 23, 2016
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- 40,455
- Jan 16, 2011
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Cool, cool, cool.
And this didn’t teach you anything? You think there’s ANYTHING that Kamala has ever done that can possibly compare to THIS? And you need us to say things nicely? My patience and empathy ran out this day. People are voting for a literal traitor, and instead of being upset with them, you’re upset with US for not kissing their butts. There’s insanity in this thread, indeed.
Remember how in Helsinki (2019), Trump requested that no American (not even a US translator) be present during that famous one on one with Putin?
Remember?
The guy had sensitive documents spread out on a bathroom floor in his club and other docs sitting in plain view with printers on the side.
But some people will vote for him over sports, and they'll get upset when the stupidity of their move is pointed out.
uncalled4boy
Supporter
- Oct 27, 2007
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- 3,750
- Jan 3, 2011
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Misleading ‘pro-Harris’ texts are bombarding swing state voters
“A lot of time passed before I realized it was fake.”
www.theverge.com
- Jan 3, 2011
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elpablo21
Supporter
- Feb 11, 2008
- 107,089
- 197,816
Seeing videos of ppl waiting in line for hours get propped up as stories of excitement and engagement is kinda sad
**** should not take that long for anyone to vote anywhere in this country
**** should not take that long for anyone to vote anywhere in this country
- Aug 2, 2006
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You're not understanding how the dem and republican has changed. you're just repeating things that used to be true but aren't currently true according to the polling.
Trump does well with lower propensity marginal voters OF ALL RACES.
OLD WHITE PEOPLE are not a monolith. Old white suburbanite is different than and old white rural voter is different than a and old white man/woman/ high propensity low propensity.
The non evangelical white female voter who votes every year has a college degree is not the same as an evangelical male who only votes in presidential elections.
the problem is you are taking these margins and assuming they apply evenly to every adition marginal voter when it doesn't work that way. marginal voters are more moderate in general.
The likely voting black vote could be 90/Kamala, and the marginal black voters could be 60/40 Trump. Thus Kamala would do better in an election where only the high propensity voters come out.
- May 14, 2013
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I don’t think anything we’ve said is contradictory to one another. Turn out matters. Especially with the electoral college set up the way it is. That said, understanding where gains come from how that translates into a definite +1 for Harris or an unreliable +1 for Trump is still valuable information imo. So much so hey campaigns and companies spend millions of dollars an election cycle on that data.
- May 1, 2011
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I didn't even know we had early voting in Cali until last week. I dont think I will ever vote on Election Day ever again.
- Aug 2, 2006
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We don't even need to use polling. Look at the election results. Trump has over performed his polling in higher turnout presidential elections.
and under performed it in lower turnout midterms.
This idea that higher turnout only helps dems, is a pre 2016 thing.
This hasn't been true for a nearly a decade.
Trump needs lots of young guys who have never voted before or rarely vote to show up.
and under performed it in lower turnout midterms.
This idea that higher turnout only helps dems, is a pre 2016 thing.
This hasn't been true for a nearly a decade.
Trump needs lots of young guys who have never voted before or rarely vote to show up.
kdawg
Staff member
- Jun 25, 2003
- 11,314
- 13,082
After my FiL was ranting about how Kamala didn’t say who she voted for because it was her business I asked him who he voted for - expecting some hypocrisy.
Instead I got:
Thankfully I’m confident the rest of the family voted for Kamala - so that’s 4:1 but that’s frustrating.
Instead I got:
Thankfully I’m confident the rest of the family voted for Kamala - so that’s 4:1 but that’s frustrating.
dblplay1212
Supporter
- May 23, 2016
- 20,367
- 40,455
But she's not 90% in high propensity so you're hypothetical makes no sense. Old white people are not a monolith but you can bank on them voting and you can bank on them voting Republican as a whole. They are the top of the food chain in likely voters. They are going to vote in every election, not just POTUS.
You can't draw a line where you get out the PR vote for Kamala but you don't get out some black men that haven't voted before that will vote for Trump. In a perfect world sure Dems would get out unlikely voters and Republicans don't and that may be what decides the election but us sitting on the couch we just have to root for high turnout bc overall that's better for Dems.
- Mar 25, 2021
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Nate don't know about the keys
- Jun 20, 2014
- 5,086
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I been voting absentee as long as I can recall. I think I went in person once and never again.
dblplay1212
Supporter
- May 23, 2016
- 20,367
- 40,455
And Kamala needs record turnout from PR and black voters. Low turnout means the old white vote carries more weight and that's bad for Kamala. There's no other way to spin it.
- Oct 13, 2001
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Legit no reason to wait until the day of.
Early polls are open to at least 7 pm daily and it generally takes less than 5 mins.
- Apr 30, 2011
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Delete
- Aug 22, 2012
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Sadly, if you live in an affluent area it's kind of cool to wait until the big day. No line.
That being said, I think going forward I will vote early then take a vacation the week of the election. Being on the beach while hearing good or bad news is a win-win.
