OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[アミーゴ]

Reading is fundamental sorry my brain is fried today are you saying you wished you would have held on to more shares?

Been buying and getting crushed

 

[Rj4147]

So I read that it only costs like 30k to start a hedge fund lol. I guess getting clients is the hard part? I don’t know much about the regulations, but leveraging other ppls money to make your own sounds like a W

 

[Brownstone]

Been buying and getting crushed

I liked the Iron Source acquisition did you not?

I think it's more Macro driven but who knows....

 

[アミーゴ]

I liked the Iron Source acquisition did you not?

I think it's more Macro driven but who knows....

No - entire industry didn’t honestly. Why double down on advertising when you are supposed to be driving your tech?

I was just with a board member of theirs who was dunking on them/disappointed

 

[antidope]

Fun day. RIP SVB and probably First Republic

 

[noskey]

Fun day. RIP SVB and probably First Republic

Think any contagion risk exists here?

 

[cragmatic]

I work in banking…. What is going on

I don’t work for any of those companies but looking accross the board, all banks are having a rough week.

 

[antidope]

Think any contagion risk exists here?

100%. The Fed needs to step in today. Every regional bank is gonna have this problem on a massive scale. Big banks too.

It's totally their fault anyways

 

[noskey]

100%. The Fed needs to step in today. Every regional bank is gonna have this problem on a massive scale. Big banks too.

It's totally their fault anyways

Ah, so the dominoes are finally starting to fall. First Republic has been growing too fast to not be overleveraged, no matter what they say. There's been a brand new under-construction retail branch up the road from me that's been sitting for years without being finished. Liquidity and cash flow problems have to be real if they can't finish building a flagship branch in this city.


Let em fail.

 

[アミーゴ]

Let ‘em fail like they did in 08 and don’t bail ‘em out this time

 

[antidope]

I do not agree. Banks are Systemically important institutions. We don't need to do this again.

SVB provides a service that few other banks would do. They are the bank of choice for Venture.

 

[superantigen]

So what's the play gents? How do we profit from this... in theory, of course, if you are wary of giving "advice" that may be construed as investment advice?


...

 

[アミーゴ]

So what's the play gents? How do we profit from this... in theory, of course, if you are wary of giving "advice" that may be construed as investment advice?


...

Yeah I can’t get caught up

Regulators on the move

 

[noskey]

So what's the play gents? How do we profit from this... in theory, of course, if you are wary of giving "advice" that may be construed as investment advice?


...

Short or buy puts against KBE? I wouldn't touch single stock equities atm since an SVB situation might **** you over too.

Or we wait for the news over the weekend and buy for the Monday bounce.

 

[アミーゴ]

Bet on the biggest banks in the world ^^

 

[noskey]

Bet on the biggest banks in the world ^^

Instructions unclear. All in on Credit Suisse.

 

[アミーゴ]

Lol most of YC is with SVB - just had a company I advise for tell me

 

[executive76]

 

[antidope]

Exactly man. Add in Keybank, Valley National, you name it.

The Fed has to come out post market close and let every bank post their treasuries and paper instruments as collateral and guarantee all bank deposits for no interest.

These banks are an important part of the economic system. It's not even a solvency issue, it's a liquidity issue. These are all money good products the Fed just needs to backstop this. This is silly.

Not to mention all the venture firms that would go under along with portfolio companies. And the people who would all lose their jobs. Statement by Monday at the latest. Not a thing to mess around with here

Yall are rooting for the dark ages.

 

[antidope]

Bet on the biggest banks in the world ^^

Yup look at JPM Citi and Wells right now. Cause they're the ports in the storm, the too big to fail guys and where the money will go. Not for everyone but a lot of people will flock even post resolution

 

[WASHED KING]

Can any one of this cause housing prices to crumble

 

[turbospartan]

Can any one of this cause housing prices to crumble

Hopefully not for a few months, listing mine next week!

 

[WASHED KING]

Hopefully not for a few months, listing mine next week!

Just need another 2 years for me. Wishing you the best in your new endeavors sir.

 

[アミーゴ]

Can any one of this cause housing prices to crumble

Not currently

 

[noskey]

Can any one of this cause housing prices to crumble

Not likely in the near term. It takes a pretty widespread contagion for housing markets to really get hit hard. 08 was the outlier of all black swans; we probably won't see that again. We could see strong corrections in overpriced markets if more banks fail i.e. KPMG released a report estimating an 8% drop this year (2008 had an 11% drop).

If antidope is right about contagion risk and this hits more massive banks, combined with rising interest rates, we could definitely see some specific housing market fire sales by end of year. If Zillow or Redfin go under we'll see some attractive opportunities. If Blackrock dies, the world might end.