OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[promac]

Question about that $1200 payment via stimulus: if you havent filed 2019 taxes, then the government will use your 2018 numbers. If you earned more in 2019, wouldnt it make sense to hold off on filing?

doesn’t matter, when you file for 2020 the government will see if you qualified or not in 2019 and if you didn’t, they’ll take it back next year when you file

 

[shibadekobe]

GOLDMAN SACHS FORECASTS REAL Q1 US GDP GROWTH AT -9% ANNUALIZED, Q2 GROWTH -34% ANNUALIZED, LOWERING FROM -6% AND -24%, PREVIOUSLY


GOLDMAN SACHS SEES THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISING TO 15% BY MIDYEAR VS 9% PREVIOUSLY

 

[wballz]

Shorting pops and covering dips. Things don’t go straight up. Just needs a lot of touch and discipline in a green environment.

in a normal market I can see FB going to 170 tomorrow and would buy a weekly call to play that game. But I just don’t feel confident with this market to take any chances on longs up here. Bleh.

Yup.. if it was any other year q1 or q2, I am just following that sin/cos price pattern wave on high volume blue chips. Buying and selling calls and puts at the tangent of the wave.

However, this feeling reminds me of the 09 spring bull run where everything was going up after earnings regardless of results.

My gut tells me to stay away because my greed emotions are kicking in.

 

[tkthafm]

GOLDMAN SACHS FORECASTS REAL Q1 US GDP GROWTH AT -9% ANNUALIZED, Q2 GROWTH -34% ANNUALIZED, LOWERING FROM -6% AND -24%, PREVIOUSLY


GOLDMAN SACHS SEES THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISING TO 15% BY MIDYEAR VS 9% PREVIOUSLY

You know what that means.... all time highs coming !

 

[shibadekobe]

You know what that means.... all time highs coming !

Pamping as we speak

*next stop SPX 2800

 

[shibadekobe]

CONF. BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (MAR) 120 VS 110 EXPECTED

MNI CHICAGO PMI (MAR) 47.8 VS 40 EXPECTED
* "data"

U.S. HEALTH OFFICIAL FAUCI SAYS STARTING TO SEE "GLIMMERS" THAT SOCIAL DISTANCING DAMPENING SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS IN U.S. -CNN INTERVIEW

FAUCI SAYS HE IS CONFIDENT U.S. WILL BE MUCH BETTER PREPARED FOR ANY SECOND WAVE OF CORONAVIRUS -CNN INTERVIEW

 

[southernhospita]

I love when my price alerts are triggered when I have calls opened $SQ

 

[tkthafm]

Loaded more short. If this doesn't drop within 2 weeks I will take a break from trading for a while.

 

[goledensilence]

Keep an eye on Ally Financial
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/online-automotive-retailer-vroom-announces-130000100.html

 

[goledensilence]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/29/nows-the-time-to-buy-take-two-interactive.aspx

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...ll-apple-stock-to-buy-microsoft/#7f17d1ad1aed

 

[shibadekobe]

CUOMO: UNEMPLOYMENT LINE GOT 1.2M CALLS LAST WEEK; USUALLY 50K

*let's see them try to doctor this week's #s too

 

[degenerate423]

CUOMO: UNEMPLOYMENT LINE GOT 1.2M CALLS LAST WEEK; USUALLY 50K

*let's see them try to doctor this week's #s too

They just have to call up the guy who doctored China’s PMI numbers .

 

[Betonblck]

You know what that means.... all time highs coming !

Yep, bad news equals good news these days.

 

[pdino]

The idea that the market is going up baffles me.. Record/historic unemployment, we're all locked down, companies asking for bailouts, need stimulus checks.. Don't make sense

 

[shibadekobe]

The idea that the market is going up baffles me.. Record/historic unemployment, we're all locked down, companies asking for bailouts, need stimulus checks.. Don't make sense

 

[turbospartan]

The idea that the market is going up baffles me.. Record/historic unemployment, we're all locked down, companies asking for bailouts, need stimulus checks.. Don't make sense

I keep hearing people justify it with "that is already built into the price" but that doesn't make sense either. Things keep changing and the numbers are worse than most originally predicted (# of cases, # of deaths, # of ventilators needed, # of unemployment, etc).... and the market just keeps humming along. Major corporations are likely to default or go under, unless everyone is just blowing smoke. Can't imagine that is the case though, with the millions of service industry workers that are currently without a paycheck for going on weeks now...

 

[Brownstone]

I keep hearing people justify it with "that is already built into the price" but that doesn't make sense either. Things keep changing and the numbers are worse than most originally predicted (# of cases, # of deaths, # of ventilators needed, # of unemployment, etc).... and the market just keeps humming along. Major corporations are likely to default or go under, unless everyone is just blowing smoke. Can't imagine that is the case though, with the millions of service industry workers that are currently without a paycheck for going on weeks now...

Stocks disproportionately skew towards large companies which are obviously more insulated from macro economic factors. Additionally companies that are cash heavy (APPLE, MSFT Etc...) Were already a disproportinaite portion of the market cap of the S&P

Which Major companies are likely to default? Companies you would expect to be hit hardest like Exxon for example- have enough cash to last several years of this.


I think the biggest risk is CC debt and the ripple through the housing market that is sure to come. What a time!

 

[shibadekobe]

I keep hearing people justify it with "that is already built into the price" but that doesn't make sense either. Things keep changing and the numbers are worse than most originally predicted (# of cases, # of deaths, # of ventilators needed, # of unemployment, etc).... and the market just keeps humming along. Major corporations are likely to default or go under, unless everyone is just blowing smoke. Can't imagine that is the case though, with the millions of service industry workers that are currently without a paycheck for going on weeks now...

Agreed.
How many times have we heard..."It's priced in"...."Trillions sitting on the sidelines"...."Banks & Funds have Trillions of Dry Powder to jump in"

 

[johnnyredstorm]

08 collapse took a whole year I imagine this will be the same ebb and flow

 

[Brownstone]

Agreed.
How many times have we heard..."It's priced in"...."Trillions sitting on the sidelines"...."Banks & Funds have Trillions of Dry Powder to jump in"

Imaginary money is the great equalizer!

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Stocks disproportionately skew towards large companies which are obviously more insulated from macro economic factors. Additionally companies that are cash heavy (APPLE, MSFT Etc...) Were already a disproportinaite portion of the market cap of the S&P

Which Major companies are likely to default? Companies you would expect to be hit hardest like Exxon for example- have enough cash to last several years of this.


I think the biggest risk is CC debt and the ripple through the housing market that is sure to come. What a time!

Ford, Macy’s, airlines, casinos, Boeing, etc. all those companies are not equipped to handle this financially and need either a bail out, chapter eleven or a buy out.

 

[HarlemShakeStory]

doesn’t matter, when you file for 2020 the government will see if you qualified or not in 2019 and if you didn’t, they’ll take it back next year when you file

Where’d you hear this? We were just below the cut off for a family in 2018, but above it for 2019. My accountant said she would hold off filing 2019 so we could receive the stimulus based off of 2018. It is my understanding that there are no additional stipulations.

 

[turbospartan]

Which Major companies are likely to default? Companies you would expect to be hit hardest like Exxon for example- have enough cash to last several years of this.

Johnny did a good job naming the ones that were coming to mind, here:

Ford, Macy’s, airlines, casinos, Boeing, etc. all those companies are not equipped to handle this financially and need either a bail out, chapter eleven or a buy out.

These are major companies that employ hundreds of thousands of people. Macy's, Kohl's, and JCPenney already "furloughed" like 100k each. GAP another 80k. Ford and GM not re-opening plants when they said they would, until further notice. Not to mention the millions of restaurant workers, and the restaurants themselves that won't be able to afford rent (Cheesecake Factory, Subway both already said they aren't paying April rent). The companies that own the malls - anchored by Macy's, Kohl's, JCP, etc - are gonna go hit hard, too (malls were already dying). Commercial real estate gonna get hammered, will that effect residential or lending?

 

[shibadekobe]

Citadel, Point72, Millennium, Capital One all got Bailout Money recently (Bloomberg) by making idiotic wrong way bets.
They allowed Ronin to fail and another smaller shop (forgot name).
I wonder why MSM isn't hyping that? Are they saving that for the Elections?

 

[tkthafm]

Severe reversal.

Lots of data coming out this week.