Official Stock Market & Economy Thread

[nycballer]

Reign - You still believing in the "W" pattern you drew out the other day? Past two days with lower then usual volume, and with pretty much mediocregains (with financial doing alot of the leading), doesn't seem to follow suite with your "W" pattern (unless there is a major drop off tomorrowor Thursday).

 

[reigndrop]

Originally Posted by nycballer

Reign - You still believing in the "W" pattern you drew out the other day? Past two days with lower then usual volume, and with pretty much mediocre gains (with financial doing alot of the leading), doesn't seem to follow suite with your "W" pattern (unless there is a major drop off tomorrow or Thursday).

I'm gonna have to call that one off. The low volume along with what's happening in Washington, people are just on the sidelines right nowwaiting to snatch up shares. It's still a bit premature though, we'll clearly know by Friday. If it falls off a cliff by Friday, then the W patternis back in effect, if it's flat til Friday, there should be a big rally next week when the government does announce the bad bank plan.

 

[nycballer]

Originally Posted by reigndrop

Originally Posted by nycballer

Reign - You still believing in the "W" pattern you drew out the other day? Past two days with lower then usual volume, and with pretty much mediocre gains (with financial doing alot of the leading), doesn't seem to follow suite with your "W" pattern (unless there is a major drop off tomorrow or Thursday).

I'm gonna have to call that one off. The low volume along with what's happening in Washington, people are just on the sidelines right now waiting to snatch up shares. It's still a bit premature though, we'll clearly know by Friday. If it falls off a cliff by Friday, then the W pattern is back in effect, if it's flat til Friday, there should be a big rally next week when the government does announce the bad bank plan.

You pretty much wrote out my exact feelings on the "W" pattern. If its flat for the next couple days, I'll get out of my short etfpositions (if i don't do so tomorrow) and start to look at some gold positions going into next week if we see a pullback at any point this week.

 

[joe mcknight is ballin]

my fas holdings and faz shorts are looking good for tomorrow.

 

[destination kicks]

My man andre with the Ed Cota avy... Classic.

 

[btonnt]

just wanted to say this is a pretty amazing thread
even though most of it's over my head read through several pages this morning
will be getting in gold over here

 

[banks2pierce]

I have 2 things to add:

1. Hope everyone is either short or sells before February 9th. 2/9/09 is gonna be a crazy day. I am thinking a major healthcare issue comes to a peak orsomething, but I am 99 percent sure the market will take another significant dip.

2. Short AAPL. The SEC probe into Jobs' health was weird, and I think that Apple will be debased. I see this stock dipping like crazy.

 

[qpitfighter]

i was on the short apple bandwagon a week ago, but now i wouldn't short it.

 

[dey know yayo]

okay so i'm back with a thorough post again.

dow won't let 8000 be broken apparently. huge intraday futures buying when we near dow 8000 and an imminent economic stimulus suggests the fed has put anominal price floor on the dow. this is PURE MANIPULATION. plunge protection team at its finest. we don't have a free market, folks.

so, judging by current charts, we won't break down anymore and the best thing to do is play gold. i am waiting for some nice charts to develop in goldstocks. RGLD is probably in the beginning stages of an ascending triangle, a $50 breakout would be huge for it. A lot of other names need to pullback afterhuge recent upswings. RGLD GOLD GG ABX AEM IAG JAG AU EGO are my favorite gold stocks. Watch them daily.

other commodities will also do well from here, but probably not as well as gold in real terms. however, there are definitely some great commodity-basedequities that are developing into terrific future longs. X, SCHN, EOG, DVN, CHK, CLR, FSLR, ENER, MON, POT, which are all previous huuuge winners, look prettybullish. SCHN especially. Great round 50DMA bounce.

PALM is another stock that looks terrific. it should break out big soon.

playing FAS and other ultralongs here is stupid in my opinion-- specific equities and their derivatives will go up a lot more than ultralong ETFs. the only ETFworth playing is TBT, which shorts US Treasuries, a great play as the bond bubble collapses.

my analysis for the past two months so far has been pretty much dead on. i thought we would break dow 8000 temporarily and then jump right above after bouncingat november lows, but we didn't break 8000. i've been pointing out 8000 on the dow as a very significant support level. people who played FAZ and myshort plays from the beginning of when I said to go in (January 6) are up huge. people late to the game who got whipsawed and tried chasing are probably downhuge.

the gold and bond markets are acting exactly as i've been calling for them, too. gold equities are the best and safest plays here.

i'm 100% cash but will be buying into gold equities and options soon, as well as PALM equity and options and some of those oil & gas, steel, fert, andenergy equities and their options.

just browsed through last few pages-- reigndrop and wawaweewa seem to be pretty dead on.

i'll post charts and stuff on my blog tonight.

let me know if you have any questions.

 

[dey know yayo]

http://www.dormroomderivatives.com/http://www.dormroomderivatives.com/

Blog has been updated with lots of insight and charts.

 

[dunkman23]

DKY - what you think about SRS... is it still a good play ? or pretty much dead, it dropped during todays afterhours.

 

[truth 15]

DKY-

Good to see you back. I panicked and I thought you were gone for good.

I held FAZ and SKF too long and am losing profits really quickly. I'm going to sell immediately and put that money towards something else. If you had torecommend me two or three equities ($6000 total to invest), which ones should I go with? I was thinking of throwing it all in FAS or UYG tomorrow morning andthen sell around noon but that's probably not the best strategy.

I also have the same question as Dunkman, hold or sell SRS?

 

[dey know yayo]

SRS SKF FAZ don't look bullish here. If the market breaks down below Dow 8000 theyll be good, but if we break above about SPY 86 consider them dead.

 

[truth 15]

whats the best way to go? TBT, GLD?

 

[dey know yayo]

those are ETFs. i dont like ETFs unless the markets going down big and youre trading ultrashort ETFs short term.

 

[truth 15]

got it, I'll just stick to my regular plays aka X, SCHN, GG, SLW, and FCX. Good to see you back

 

[andre3001]

Originally Posted by reigndrop

Originally Posted by andre3001

Originally Posted by nicefro

I know what you mean man, you heavy in the ultrashorts?

You know it man. I'm really second guessing them lately though. Tough thing to stay in for this long due to the volatility.... yet the volatility is what also makes em so great if ya know what I mean. What's the point of being in them if the gov won't allow them to reach their peak???

Rather than worrying about the government, why don't you think about how you can make money when the government intervenes?

Reign - You know you're right about that. I just re-upped into SRS at the wrong time and I am a bit irked about it. Time to take advantage of somethingelse though. Good lookin' out.

Destination Kicks- You know it! Easy Ed all day!

Nice - Keeping the post alive! Nice work sir.

DKY- once you open that fund this summer if you need an operations specialist holler at me! Thanks for the blog update as well. Nice info. Your gold play islooking stronger and stronger.

 

[nycballer]

DKY - What would you say is a good entry point for RGLD (given the current charts)? From what I've gathered on the charts is a good entry for calls wouldbe in the 41 range and after reading through William O'Neal's book, it would seem that getting into the actual equity would make sense at about 50-51 -after it breaks that pivot point. Let me know if I am wrong on any of my graph analysis.

 

[urbenyouth]

Noob question: How would I go about setting up an account? Do I just go into an AmeriTrade and talk to a rep or something?

 

[dey know yayo]

RGLD is a buy if and when it bounces off its 50 DMA, which will be above $40. If it breaks below its 50DMA it's a neutral stock. Buying at a $50 breakoutis the conservative way to buy equities and works at a good success rate but you miss a lot of profit.

 

[nicefro]

Originally Posted by UrbenYouth

Noob question: How would I go about setting up an account? Do I just go into an AmeriTrade and talk to a rep or something?

I think everyone in this thread is working with online trading.

thinkorswim, etrade, scottrade, interactive brokers, etc.

 

[nicefro]

DKY, I know you said FAS is a foolish play, but I think that's only true if you're a long term player. Any ETF should only be played for a short timeand then you take your profits or your losses and run. I was in it lightly last week from wednesday afterhours @ 10.45 after the huge rally, then panicked andsold thursday pre-market @ 9.02. It was like an $80 loss but a loss nonetheless. The problem comes when people try to hold their position from $25 in FAS andthink it'll ever get back.

Had I held my position for a week, I'd be in the green. Anyway, I'm all liquid right now and looking to get back in Monday, we'll see what themarket sentiment is then.

Also, FAS has already crossed it's average volume and it's only 10:40

 

[joe mcknight is ballin]

financials rallying like i thought it would after earnings. srs getting hammered today.

 

[nicefro]

FAS hit $12.50 (32.5%)+ earlier.

Big guys probably gonna take profits soon.

 

[nicefro]

FAS finished @ 12.33, 32.65% higher than yesterday's close. I think we should see a small correction tomorrow, and then a healthy rally for the rest of theday, but not quite as dramatic as it was today.

Keep in mind that with FAs up ~33%, the djusfn was up 11%.

DJIA- 8375.45, 2.46%

SP500- 874.11, 3.36%