Teams that should be in: Dayton
Work left to do: Utah State, Creighton, Saint Mary's, Rhode Island, Davidson
It was a rough weekend for several at-large candidates from the so-called "non-BCS" conferences. UAB lost to Memphis 71-60 at home Thursday night. Siena lost at Niagara 100-85 on Friday night. Temple lost at Dayton 70-65 on Saturday, and Utah State lost at Nevada 84-71 later that night. As a result, the Blazers, Saints and Owls have been dropped from the bubble page. Utah State would probably be gone, too, if not for its gaudy computer profile. But the Aggies will have to win the upcoming WAC tournament to feel remotely confident on Selection Sunday.
Dayton [24-5 (10-4), RPI: 27, SOS: 108] The Flyers ended a two-game losing streak by beating Temple 70-65 at home Saturday, a loss that all but eliminated the Owls from at-large consideration. Dayton is 3-1 against RPI top-50 opponents, also beating Marquette 89-75 on Nov. 29 (neutral court) and Xavier 71-58 on Feb. 11 (home). The Flyers play at Xavier on Thursday, a game that might determine the Atlantic-10 regular-season champion. Dayton closes the regular season at home against Duquesne on Saturday. Dayton has three sub-100 losses, losing at RPI No. 112 Saint Louis, No. 162 Massachusetts and No. 176 Charlotte.
Utah State [26-4 (13-2), RPI: 31, SOS: 126] The Aggies' at-large hopes were probably slim at best, even before they lost at Nevada 84-71 on Saturday night. Utah State simply doesn't have enough meat on its resume. It has one RPI-top 50 victory, beating Utah 66-64 at home on Dec. 22. The Aggies have lost three of their past five games and, worse, 20 of their 25 victories came against opponents ranked outside the RPI top 100. Utah State closes the regular season at home against San Jose State on Saturday. It will probably have to win the upcoming WAC tournament in Reno, Nev., to make the NCAA's 65-team field.
Creighton [25-6 (14-4), RPI: 39, SOS: 113] The Bluejays beat Illinois State 74-70 on Saturday to earn a share of the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season championship. Creighton is the No. 2 seed in this week's MVC tournament in St. Louis, and will play the winner of an opening-round game between Wichita State and Missouri State on Friday night. The Bluejays have won 10 games in a row, but might need a victory or two in St. Louis to lock up an at-large bid. They have only one victory over an RPI top-50 opponent, beating Dayton 77-59 at home on Dec. 10. The Bluejays also have victories over George Mason (home), New Mexico (home) and Northern Iowa (road). They'll also get help from their stellar 8-4 record in road games.
Saint Mary's [24-5 (10-4), RPI: 53, SOS: 186] The Gaels beat two of college basketball's worst teams this past week, winning 62-49 at Pepperdine on Thursday night and 70-57 at Loyola Marymount on Saturday night. Saint Mary's takes a five-game winning streak into the upcoming West Coast Conference tournament, where it will receive a bye until the March 9 semifinals as the No. 2 seed. The Gaels did a decent job of enduring the loss of star point guard Patty Mills, who broke his right hand during their 72-70 loss at Gonzaga on Feb. 12. Saint Mary's went 5-3 in its next eight games without Mills, who hopes to return for the WCC tournament. Saint Mary's has two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, beating Utah State 75-64 at home on Feb. 21 and San Diego State 67-64 on a neutral court on Dec. 13. The selection committee will consider Mills' injury when it evaluates Saint Mary's. The Gaels will have a much better chance of making the 65-team field if Mills is back.
Rhode Island [22-8 (11-4), RPI: 60, SOS: 136] After beating Dayton 93-91 on a buzzer beater in overtime Wednesday, the Rams won at Duquesne 73-71 on Sunday. They trail Xavier by one game in the loss column of the Atlantic 10 standings with an 11-4 record. Rhode Island closes the regular season at home against Massachusetts on Saturday. Rhode Island has two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, beating Dayton and Temple. The Rams also beat Penn State 77-72 on a neutral court on Nov. 28 and beat Virginia Commonwealth 92-86 at home on Nov. 22. The Rams are 2-5 against RPI top-50 opponents and 5-6 against the top 100.
Davidson [24-6 (17-2), RPI: 67, SOS: 157] The Wildcats continue to demolish their Southern Conference foes, beating Georgia Southern by 43 points at home Saturday. But Davidson might need to win the upcoming Southern Conference tournament in Chattanooga, Tenn., to return to the NCAA tournament, where it advanced to the region finals in 2008. Davidson has only one victory over an RPI top-50 opponent, beating West Virginia 68-65 on a neutral court on Dec. 9. The Wildcats lost at Duke by 12 points, at Oklahoma by four, against Purdue by 18 (neutral court) and against Butler by 12 (home). Davidson closes the regular season at Elon on Monday.
| Locks
|