The Official NBA Season Thread: Season Starts Now



In NBA free agency, cap space isn’t cool anymore

I’m old enough to remember when cap space meant something, when the words “max room” were enough to get your team’s fans titillated about the possibility of All-NBA superstars striding onto the court for the home squad the next season.

At the very least, there was the momentary excitement of being in the game, right? Just being one of the teams picked to have a July 1 meeting in some beachfront hideaway felt special.

Now? We only had one All-Star change teams this summer in free agency — one-time All-Star Fred VanVleet. Only two players — Kyrie Irving and VanVleet — got the max. James Harden, a Hall of Fame player who scored 42 points in a road playoff game six weeks ago, generated so little interest that he opted into the final year of his deal. So did Kristaps Porziņģis, for that matter.

It wasn’t for a lack of money sloshing around. Eight teams entered the offseason with max or near-max money to spend in free agency: Detroit, Houston, Indiana, Orlando, Oklahoma City, Sacramento, San Antonio and Utah. Three others (Charlotte, Washington and the Lakers) also could have jumped in if they wished by renouncing their own free agents. That’s more than a third of the league! While several of those teams were rebuilding, they also had ambitions of taking large steps forward this summer.

And yet the net result of all that cap space was one truly jarring free-agent move (VanVleet to Houston), followed by … some stuff. Let’s just say when the word “max cap space” came up this spring, Detroit fans weren’t imagining Joe Harris.

I must emphasize what a change this represents.

As recently as 2019, seven All-Stars changed teams in free agency in a single summer. Kawhi Leonard jumped from the Raptors to the Clippers with cap space. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving did the rare and spectacular “double max” to team up in Brooklyn. Kemba Walker left Charlotte for Boston’s cap space. Jimmy Butler left Philly, although not into cap space, but once he did the Sixers had enough room to sign Al Horford away from Boston and into the void. D’Angelo Russell may not be your idea of an All-Star, but the was the seventh when he left the Nets as the outbound part of a sign-and-trade for Durant.

The initial instinct is to blame the Big Bad New CBA for this, but the actual culprit is the last CBA. The loosened restrictions on contract extensions and, especially, the arrival of the supermax extension, have massively reduced the pool of star talent that ever hits free agency in the first place. That summer of 2019 — which also featured Paul George, Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook getting traded — was sort of a last gasp for the old-world model of free agency.

With that in mind, take a look at what our friends with cap space have done this summer. I get that we’re not quite done yet, and in particular a couple of restricted free agents remain on the market and could receive offer sheets. Nonetheless, there isn’t a player in that group who could hold a candle to our class of 2019, so I think the point will hold regardless.

• Houston was the only team that pursued the “old model,” launching into a feeding frenzy that saw the Rockets sign VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Jeff Green while trading three former first-round picks. Everyone else went a different direction.

• Detroit, with near-max room and clear marching orders to improve, turned its nearly $30 million in cap room into Harris and Monte Morris while netting one second-round pick.

• Oklahoma City had even more room than Detroit; the Thunder used it to A) pay $33 million to move up two spots in the draft by taking on Davis Bertans, B) take on a second-round pick for Victor Oladipo, and C) sign Vasa Micic to a contract that would fit in the room exception if they ever actually used the rest of their cap space.

• Indiana turned its cap room into a short-term overpay on Bruce Brown — at least this one had some on-court oomph — and a trade for Obi Toppin. We’ll talk more about the Brown deal in a minute.

• Orlando would have had to waive players such as Gary Harris or Markelle Fultz to have max room and opted not to; even so, the Magic’s only real move was filling the space with Joe Ingles for a year.

• Sacramento broke new ground by using cap space to overpay its own player rather than somebody else’s, with a $192 million renegotiate-and-extend for Domantas Sabonis that I would describe as, um, player-friendly.

• San Antonio volunteered itself as a dumping ground for Cedi Osman and maintains significant cap room to absorb whatever flotsam the inevitable trades of James Harden and Damian Lillard produce.

• Utah used the bulk of its room to take on somebody else’s problem contract, turning Rudy Gay into John Collins. The Jazz still have enough room left to renegotiate-and-extend Jordan Clarkson or take on another bad contract.

• Charlotte and Washington could have entered the fray but never really had any stomach for jumping in. The Wizards somewhat oddly opted to (over)pay Kyle Kuzma; the Hornets’ situation is still unclear pending restricted free agents P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges, but they haven’t been a player in unrestricted free agency thus far.

• Even the Lakers — the Lakers, people, the free-agent destination par excellence for decades now – took one look at the options and decided “Nah, we’re good.”

So, in the aggregate, $30 million or so in cap room gets you … a couple of seconds? That’s it???

It seems things really have changed. You’re just not getting an elite player for free anymore; teams have become too savvy and extending players has become too easy. On the flip side, nobody is foolish enough to just spend the money on randoms because they have the money; Deng-Mozgov summers are likely a thing of the past.

In fact, the smartest plays I’ve seen on the board have come from teams such as Orlando and Indiana, who have adopted something of a hybrid strategy by essentially turning their cap room into both a useful player and a trade exception.

Bruce Brown is overpaid at $45 million over two years, but with a second-year team option he basically operates as a trade exception. If any deal comes up to get the Pacers a truly difference-making player, they have the large expiring deal they need …and that’s true at any point in the next two years if they pick up the option. In the meantime, they landed a genuinely useful player to help in the backcourt; this is way higher up the food chain than absorbing a salary dump.

Orlando had a similar concept with half the money; Ingles isn’t on Brown’s level, but having his deal on the books lets the Magic quickly pivot if a trade opportunity presents itself.

For teams like the Magic and Pacers that are still figuring out what they have, I thought this was a particularly clever use of their cap room, and I was a bit surprised more teams didn’t go for the short-term overpay as a means of rolling over cap space.

One thing is for sure: Cap space isn’t cool anymore. The dream of an All-Star free-agent signing is impossible if none of them ever become free agents in the first place. As a result, teams will need to think a lot more strategically about what max-type cap room even means anymore, and what options are truly viable for franchises in that position. Many of them got 50 cents on their cap room dollar this year, and with so few genuine stars hitting free agency, I’m not sure the ROI is going to improve much in coming seasons.
 
You dont even know what you truly have with Green, Sengun, Amen, Jabari, Cam yet

It's been a solid 2 years. Ime coming in acting like they gotta win right away asap.

Its w.e I gave my 2 cents about w.e the Rockets FO thinks they're doing.
A vet presence is huge with that young team. So what would you have done? Had to spend somewhere and you suggest wait it out for a trade?

CBA is different now with salaries to trade as well. All 3 deals they did, the pieces are moveable. FVV is a 2+1 TO - he’s betting on himself again and hoping for one more payday, Brooks is front loaded and Ime hopefully will get him into his role 3+D but is a moveable piece IMO - check the other players around his salary, and Jock is pretty much a 1 yr deal.
 
sole searchin sole searchin

I would’ve offered a contract to a cheaper PG (ex: tre Jones, gabe Vincent, something along those lines). Gone after cheaper vets like Derrick Rose.

Then taken back bad contracts on teams looking to clear cap for picks.

It’s year 3. Im missing the playoffs regardless. I’m ok with seeing what I have with all my young guys, including all the new additions. My pick is top 4 protected. I’d roll the dice.
 
I would’ve offered a contract to a cheaper PG (ex: tre Jones, gabe Vincent, something along those lines). Gone after vets like Derrick Rose, etc.

Then taken back bad contracts for picks.

It’s year 3. Im missing the playoffs regardless. I’m ok with seeing what I have with all my young guys. My pick
is top 4 protected. I’d roll the dice.
Tre jones and gabe aren’t stabilizing your youth movement at all. Neither likely start over KPJ

A former all star PG that’s seen almost every thing in the league besides being a superstar is perfect for your young guys.
 
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This Rockets slander is all over the place. They set the franchise back, they lowered the value of young guys, they will win 20 games next year, should have traded for picks and tanked, Jabari and Green might get the max during DB’s deal, they should have signed better bets to win more games, they don’t know what they have, they might win 35 game, etc. Got damn :lol:

Who knows what Green, Sengun, Jabari, Amen, Tari and even Whitmore are going to be in the end but the fact is that internal rebuilds take time. Historically speaking when you look at today’s current allstars there are only a few exceptions like Embiid, Tatum, Luka, etc who became allstars early which was in part because of team success. Most of them have developed through rebuilds on lottery/low-seeded teams. About that 4-5 season mark is when we have seen players brought into those environments blossom into all star level talent like Giannis, Steph, Klay, Joker, Jaylen Brown, Ingram, Wall, Beal, etc.

Even if we limit it to the regular season, the team success isn’t overnight either with the rare exceptions of Golden State (23 wins to 46 wins in a season) and Philly (28 wins to 52 wins in a season). But even during their rebuilds and to get to where they did they signed vets, traded players, missed on some picks and found some surprises along the way but that all took at least 5 seasons from their first big draft (Curry, Embiid) and progression.

I can not definitively said if the Rockets will find the championship success of the Warriors or become a perennial contender like the 76ers but bringing in Ime and signing FVV and Brooks are pushing the franchise in the right direction by beginning to help the locker room develop a winning mentality. Their contracts also lineup with the 4-5 year leap mark that the Rockets and fans hope the young core takes. These moves may scream “win now” but that’s purely based on numbers which isn’t indicative of the reality of what they are doing and building IMO.

Bolded part says it all.
 
Ok so this is a 1-2 year experiment? How do you build after this? Do you have any flexibility the next 2 years?

Or is the plan to continue winning 30 games in the chance none of your young guys are an all star.
 
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It’s too early for this. We’ll see where the rockets are in 2 years and how much of the culture Dillon Brooks changed.
 
Ok so this is a 1-2 year experiment? How do you build after this? Do you have any flexibility the next 2 years?

Or is the plan to continue winning 30 games in the chance none of your young guys are an all star.
2 years from now

Thompson
Green
Brooks/whitmore
Smith jr/Eason
Sengun

Hopefully Green is a borderline all star. Sengun is as good as sabonis. You look like todays kings. It’s a win
 
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