2017 FANTASY FOOTBALL THREAD VOL. ZERO RB IS STILL KING

[junglejim]

Yeah I agree with this. At the 1st/2nd round turn I want somebody who's a potential overall WR1 and I don't see him having that ceiling. He should be a safe pick though imo.

Last year he finished WR9 in standard scoring as a Rookie and WR8 was brandin Cooks. He had the 5th most receptions in the league last year with Cooks still having 78. I have to believe that he is going to be a high end WR1 and I think that is where I disagree with people here.

You look at Mike Evans who is going 7. He was way up their in receptions, but they added Godwin, Desean Jackson, OJ Howard, and Sims is back. Same story with AJ green. He was solid last year but had a decent drop off once Eifert came back in week 6 and they drafted Ross and Mixon.

 

[bxbadboy90]

Im picking 11 in my 12 man ppr league.

All the options around that turn are real shakeyy.

Think I may eventually go M.Thomas/Melvin or Demarco

 

[アミーゴ]

Yeah, I have 10. We've been talking about that.

 

[macbk]

Unless a combo like AJ Green (one mock he fell to me), Jordy, Michael Thomas, Cooks* (up in the air) is there for me at 12 & 13, I may bite the bullet and go WR/RB with my b2b picks.

 

[buc em]

I think you also have to take in the fact that every team in the league had to game plan for Cooks. He was the one guy I worried about on the Saints whenever we played them. Without teams having to worry about him as the deep threat and putting their #1 corner on him every week we'll see how open Thomas and Snead are.

 

[stick]

Last year he finished WR9 in standard scoring as a Rookie and WR8 was brandin Cooks. He had the 5th most receptions in the league last year with Cooks still having 78. I have to believe that he is going to be a high end WR1 and I think that is where I disagree with people here.

You look at Mike Evans who is going 7. He was way up their in receptions, but they added Godwin, Desean Jackson, OJ Howard, and Sims is back. Same story with AJ green. He was solid last year but had a decent drop off once Eifert came back in week 6 and they drafted Ross and Mixon.

Check my comment below regarding Thomas.

But as for Mike Evans, I agree with you there. I don't think he repeats his performance last year. There will probably much fewer targets for him this year.

I don't agree with you regarding AJ though. After week 6 he went for 169, 121, and 68 yards with 8, 9, and 7 receptions respectively. As well as two TDs. The only thing in his way is injury as he's missed several games each of the last few years. Bernard has always garnered a lot of targets out of that backfield so I don't see Mixon cutting into AJ's targets that much. And while Ross does figure to take some targets, I think more will be siphoned away from Tyler Boyd than AJ.

(As an aside - draft Andy Dalton)

I think you also have to take in the fact that every team in the league had to game plan for Cooks. He was the one guy I worried about on the Saints whenever we played them. Without teams having to worry about him as the deep threat and putting their #1 corner on him every week we'll see how open Thomas and Snead are.

This. We'll see how he fares while being the number one weapon which in turn will mean stronger coverage against him.

Also, he had something crazy like a 75+% catch rate last year. If that drops towards the league average of ~60%, he'd need a lot more targets, or more touchdowns (which is unlikely - he had 9 last year), just to come close to last year's production.

So he'd need to remain ultra-efficient, against stronger coverage, while still maintaining a high target share on a team that traditionally likes to spread the ball around, just to repeat his numbers from last season. To be better he'd need a lot more targets, or more TDs.

I'd be more comfortable buying him towards the back end of the 2nd round. But like I said he's not necessarily a bad pick where he's going now. I just don't think the upside is there.

 

[アミーゴ]

I would love AJ or Shady at 10. Probably taking Jordy at 10, hopefully Martellus doesn't take looks from him.

 

[buc em]

I just look at Mike Thomas as a possession type of receiver. He doesn't have crazy speed or measurables or anything special to him really. He's just really solid and was the most talented guy besides Cooks on a team that passed the ball more than just about everyone last year. If he fell to me and I HAD to take him then it still just wouldn't really excite me.

 

[nick.]

I like Michael Thomas a lot more in the 15-18 range than the 10-13 range

 

[macbk]

I like Michael Thomas a lot more in the 15-18 range than the 10-13 range

Well **** me

 

[stick]

Well **** me

If you can go Jordy/Thomas that would be a great pairing imo. Jordy is a legitimate contender for overall WR1, and Thomas is a "safer" (I put that in quotes because Jordy isn't really an "unsafe" pick) bet for consistent production. Great duo to shore up your top WR slots.

 

[junglejim]

Is Thomas really going that high? Lol, I was asking because I had the 15th pick and assumed he was going to drop to me.

I ended up trading away my first, second, and fourth for my buddies first second, and sixth to move up and draft 2 to get David Johnson. Now I have no idea who the hell im going to take in round 2

 

[williamontana]

Got the 9th pick in a 12 team standard league, who should I target with the first two picks? Thinking Jordy or Shady at #9

 

[timelessflight]

Got the 9th pick in a 12 team standard league, who should I target with the first two picks? Thinking Jordy or Shady at #9

Shady

 

[jrp44]

How does everyone feel about Melvin Gordon?

 

[macbk]

How does everyone feel about Melvin Gordon?

Well we should all expect Keenan Allen to be hurt at some point. Mike Williams is already out. That leaves Inman and Tyrell Williams & I guess Benjamin. With no more Woodhead Gordon is definitely first-round fantasy talent if you wanna go RB.

If he's there for me at 13 I may not pass on him.

 

[buc em]

Hunter Henry may be in line for a big year. Not sure where he's gonna be drafted but he's somebody I'd want on my team this year.

 

[macbk]

Where are you guys seeing Tyreek Hill go?

buc em watching HK last night has me wanting to draft D Jax

 

[stick]

Where are you guys seeing Tyreek Hill go?

buc em watching HK last night has me wanting to draft D Jax

Mid-late 4th round, sometimes sneaking into the 5th in 12 team PPRs. I think he scores less TDs than last year but catches alot more passes and puts up more yards. He should also get a nice amount of rushes and maybe a return TD or two (if your league rewards those). Risk/reward type pick. I wouldn't wanna bank on him as my #2 WR but would be very happy with him as my 3rd or 4th. I'm actually keeping him in my keeper league (for an 18th rounder since he was acquired from free agency )

 

[stick]

Nice article on how undervalued Duke Johnson is.

http://rotoviz.com/2017/08/one-play...orkhorse-hero-looks-clear-as-day/?hvid=5gBFr5

Another one:
http://rotoviz.com/2017/08/rb-countdown-no-29-duke-johnson/

He may end up being my top RB target. Really hope his ADP doesn't push any further than the 8th round.

 

[junglejim]

I dont see it with Duke Johnson in a standard league. Without an injury to Crowell, he isn't going to get significant carries out of the backfield. The difference between the Melvin Gordon situation and this was Melvin Gordon was already the early down back, he just didn't get the short yardage work. Unless Crowell gets hurt, his utility is pretty much limited to passing downs and there will likely be a carousel of quarterbacks this year like there was last year (or at very minimum two after they find out Osweiller is terrible and they decide to give Kizer the reigns).

I see his value in PPR leagues, but in standard leagues I'm not sure I feel comfortable rolling into the season drafting a guy who will likely get me 800 total yards and like 2 touchdowns in a standard league as my RB1 or RB2 (without injury that is).

When I think of ZeroRB targets, I think of guys like Terrance West, Doug Martin, Fat Rob Kelley, Blount, Gillissee, and Jonathan Stewart. All of those guys should get the early down and goal line work and dont require injury luck to be more than a RB3.

 

[macbk]

Is Blount going early due to last seasons play? Or can he be had mid-rounds?

 

[junglejim]

Is Blount going early due to last seasons play? Or can he be had mid-rounds?

Probably depends which system you are using, but on ESPN he is getting drafted 85

http://games.espn.com/ffl/livedraftresults

 

[buc em]

Where are you guys seeing Tyreek Hill go?

buc em watching HK last night has me wanting to draft D Jax

I've tried to tell everyone that would listen to draft D-Jax this year in fantasy. I legitimately think he's going to have his best year ever this year. He's going to be playing with the best receiver that's ever been beside him to take attention away and the best QB he's ever had throwing to him. And he's back playing in warm weather again which he hasn't had since college. That's going to help a speed guy like him as he gets a lil bit older. And as I've said on here before....Jameis was an Eagle fan growing up and D-Jax was his favorite player ever. He's going to get fed.

 

[stick]

I dont see it with Duke Johnson in a standard league. Without an injury to Crowell, he isn't going to get significant carries out of the backfield. The difference between the Melvin Gordon situation and this was Melvin Gordon was already the early down back, he just didn't get the short yardage work. Unless Crowell gets hurt, his utility is pretty much limited to passing downs and there will likely be a carousel of quarterbacks this year like there was last year (or at very minimum two after they find out Osweiller is terrible and they decide to give Kizer the reigns).

I see his value in PPR leagues, but in standard leagues I'm not sure I feel comfortable rolling into the season drafting a guy who will likely get me 800 total yards and like 2 touchdowns in a standard league as my RB1 or RB2 (without injury that is).

When I think of ZeroRB targets, I think of guys like Terrance West, Doug Martin, Fat Rob Kelley, Blount, Gillissee, and Jonathan Stewart. All of those guys should get the early down and goal line work and dont require injury luck to be more than a RB3.

I agree with you regarding him in standard leagues. I don't play in standard leagues though so my opinions are always PPR-biased .

But the Crowell/Johnson situation is more akin to the Tevin Coleman/Devonta Freeman situation from two years ago imo. Going into the season Coleman was the de-facto starter while Freeman was going to be pegged with the change of pace and receiving roles. Coleman got hurt in week 2 so Freeman stepped in and went on to torch the league and win fantasy championships for those who drafted him. Not that that's a likely scenario to happen this year with the Browns, but it can happen.

From the article:

Spoiler

"While publications across the land have appropriated the RotoViz term “Zero RB” to mean essentially not drafting any, the North remembers. It’s more complicated than just not drafting RBs in the first several rounds. Quite a bit more complicated.

They seem to specifically be missing this part:

“focus on selecting potential breakout players, the receiving back in timeshares, and backups in good offenses.

You can see fairly easily how Zero RB benefits from randomness. Whenever a starting RB gets hurt, my lineup gets better. It gets better in relation to my opponents because I didn’t have the player in question, and it gets better in the sense that I either own the backup or I have a shot to acquire the backup in free agency.”

Last season, Melvin Gordon had the fifth-highest RB win rate and eighth-highest overall at an ADP of RB28. That was despite missing the final three games. Devonta Freeman was RB33 in 2015 and had the best win rate of any player in 2015. Both were potential breakout players, receiving backs in timeshares, and backups in good offenses."

(I highly recommend reading both of the articles linked in there if you haven't already. They're the two main pieces written by the guy who coined the term "Zero RB")

You have a fair assessment with your Zero RB targets, and for the most part those guys are cheap to acquire. But in most other instances the COP/pass-catching back is drafted alot later than their early down counterpart, and if an injury were to occur, have much more upside than the starter themselves. And it's fair to assume that those early down type guys will get hurt more often than the backups, whether it be due to their running style or just for the fact that they're getting more touches/chances to get hurt. It literally happens every year. Not to mention guys sometimes just lose the job outright (which is possible with both Rob Kelley and Doug Martin this year [Martin is already suspended for the first 4 games of the season and isn't guaranteed the starting job when he returns; give me Jacquizz Rodgers in the 14th round instead]).

The thing with Zero RB is that you're hoping to take advantage of the inevitable randomness of injury/poor play of starters. While you can draft a starter in the late rounds and hope he breaks out, it'll most likely be the backups who reap the rewards when that randomness strikes.