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Random, but this has got to be one of the greatest scoring performances ever. Randomly popped up on my feed.
2025 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by addict4sneakers,
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HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
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Kuminga's the real deal. Inching closer to 3rd on my board.
HOU$TON
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Wrong thread
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Might as well get familiar with this thread with the way the rockets been looking
HOU$TON
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I been researching but this is new for me. Harden had us spoiled
Really hoping for a top 4 pick so we can keep it. The obvious pick is Cade but I’ll take kuminga right after.
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Anything in the Top 5 is a banger of a pick.I been researching but this is new for me. Harden had us spoiled
Really hoping for a top 4 pick so we can keep it. The obvious pick is Cade but I’ll take kuminga right after.
Good year to suck.
HOU$TON
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That’s what everyone is saying which is why I’m so nervous. Our pick only top 4 protected so it’s basically 50/50 we keep our pick or if it lands at 5 we gift Okc a star and I’ll be sick.
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MIKE LOWERY
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Really makes me sad Detroit, twolves, and cavs will prolly be the top 3. Franchises are never going anywhere.
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HEY THANKS AGAIN FOR RUSS! HERE'S JALEN SUGGS OR JALEN GREEN AS A TOKEN OF APPRECIATION!
Oof.
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My undervalued NBA draft prospects: On Queta, Jones, Mathurin and Mayer
The draft hype cycle can be a really interesting ride sometimes.
Take Neemias Queta, for instance. As a freshman at Utah State freshly arrived from Portugal, the 7-footer was seen by many as a late first-round pick in 2019. His skill level was a concern, but he was productive at the college level from the word go, flashed obvious potential to get better, and checked the physical boxes for an NBA center.
Queta ended up pulling his name from that draft after a poor performance at the Combine. Still, with a 7-4 wingspan and 9-4 standing reach, one figured he had a chance to move up in the draft prospect world his sophomore season. Instead, he was injured early, his play leveled off, and really, who wants to make a special trip to Logan, Utah to see an old-school center? Queta’s draft stock never gained traction.
Entering this season, he’s been all but forgotten in Draftworld. He didn’t stop playing or get injured or get worse. He just kind of faded from the spotlight and people stopped talking about him.
Except there’s the thing: He’s been awesome this year. With nearly the entire regular season complete, Queta leads the Mountain West Conference in PER, Block %, Rebound %, BPM, EFG, and ZfX$. (OK, I made up the last abbreviation. But he does seriously lead in the other five).
Queta’s counting stats don’t blow you away because the Aggies play relatively slowly and he only plays 28 minutes a game. But per 100 possessions he’s averaging 29.0 points, 18.8 boards, 5.6 assists and 6.0 blocks. The eye test shows an improved player who has developed an array of moves on the low block.
Those last two numbers are especially noteworthy. Queta is the only major college player in the last decade to average at least 2.5 assists and 2.5 blocks per game. Yes, this is a random combination of two stats, but in his case, it underscores a larger truth: You don’t see shot-blocking fives who can distribute like this. Queta has become a legitimately good passer, to the point that opponents are rewriting the previous strategy of always double-teaming him on the block.
He’s only picking up steam, too. In this past weekend’s two-game series against MWC-leading Boise State, he posted back-to-back 30-10 games against one of the few teams with the stones to single-cover him. Instead of getting burned by 3s from Queta passing out of the post, Boise State opted to live with an assortment of jump hooks and baseline spins. Choose your poison. (Side note: If you only think of blue-turf football when you think of Boise State, guess again: the Broncos are 18-4, have a sleeper draft prospect of their own in Derrick Alston Jr., and had players selected in two of the past three drafts).
Nonetheless, I haven’t seen Queta get much attention as an NBA prospect. I can’t truly call him a “Bad Geography Guy” anymore since nobody is traveling to games this year, but he’s at the very least in the wrong time zone for his TV highlights to make many sparks.
There are some concerns here, to be sure. Queta is more of an old-school five, which automatically diminishes his value, and while his perimeter game is slowly coming around he won’t be bombing 3s any time soon. Some of his movement is a bit awkward too, and so it’s fair to ask whether he can defend in space as well as he defends around the rim. Offsetting that, however, is the fact that he came to Utah State from Portugal as a raw project, and is still pretty clearly on an upward trajectory.
Right now he’s the star of my “undervalued draft guys” list: Players I think have a good chance of landing in the top 40 on draft night, but haven’t received a lot of ink just yet. I should point out that this state of affairs is completely normal — the draft isn’t for another five months, and you don’t get extra credit for having the right answers in February. All the game tape will be available and inevitably, the cream will rise.
Nonetheless, as fans start watching late-season college games, I wanted to get ahead of the curve and shine a light on some prospects who may be lurking below the radar. A year ago when I did this exercise we saw several of these players move up in the process, and if I’m any good at this the same thing will happen this year.
Note that I’ve intentionally avoided the usual lottery suspects here, for two reasons. First, I like most of the same one-and-dones everyone else does at the top. Second, my hottest takes in the top 20 of this draft are on the internationals, and we’ll get to them later.
Overall, I’m not sure any of the collegians on this list are quite good enough to crash the lottery (Important side note: I reserve the right to change my mind). But, like Queta, I think these next several players have a great chance to be in that next tier of late first-round and early second-round talent, and deserve more attention:
Matthew Mayer, Baylor, 6-9 SF, Jr.
Hiding in plain sight on the best team in the country, I find it odd that Mayer has largely been ignored as a draft prospect. Playing time is a big reason: He only plays 14.7 minutes a game after playing just over 11 in each of his two seasons in Waco.
Nonetheless, Mayer is one of the few guys getting absolutely zero buzz right now who I could see surging into the first round, especially with a strong NCAA Tournament. He might have more NBA upside than the two star guards on Baylor (Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler) who get all the attention.
Mayer’s stock gets hurt by the wide range of outcomes we see in his minutes. Put simply, the Mayer experience can be a wild ride. He’ll overdribble, take questionable shots and make crazy turnovers, and can be inconsistent from one game to the next. It’s like if Aleksej Pokusevski played college ball.
But the big-picture outcome still sizzles. Mayer’s overall stats are unbelievable. He’s shooting 46.2 percent from 3 and has 27.0 PER. He can a bit upright defensively, but he guards perimeter players and bigs interchangeably and is disruptive as hell — he’s averaging 4.5 steals per 100! That puts him in the company of two other massively underdrafted recent players, Jae Crowder and Robert Covington.
Mayer isn’t just a 3-and-D guy, though. He can handle the ball and create off the dribble, he shoots 54.5 percent on 2s and he rebounds. Draft-wise, he may be better off sticking around for his senior year and being The Man after Butler and Mitchell leave, but teams should be doing their homework on him.
Colby Jones, Xavier, 6-5 SG, Fr.
While I think Jones might be more of a “next year” guy, he reminds me a lot of watching Tyrese Haliburton as a freshman at Iowa State. Jones is more filled out than Haliburton (who isn’t?) but shows the same combination of length, passing and quickness.
Amazingly, Jones wasn’t ranked as a top-100 recruit and had nonexistent draft buzz entering the season. It’s been hard for him to generate much traction until recently, because between an early injury and Xavier’s COVID-related cancellations, he’s only played in eleven games this season, and only four in the last month.
Anybody who saw his 13-point, 11-rebound, four-assist, four-steal performance against Butler on Sunday immediately swooned. Jones flashed NBA-caliber quickness and leaping ability combined with plus length, a real feel for passing, and enough ball skills to confidently plug him in at the off-guard spot. While he followed that game up with a clunker against Providence on Wednesday, the talent is real.
Jones needs to show as more as a shooter — his 3-for-5 against St. John’s a week ago was an encouraging sign, but we only have an 18-shot sample for the season here — and put more games on his resume to prove the recent outburst wasn’t a fluke. Scouts will also want to see more impact as a scorer and more left-hand drives and finishes.
Nonetheless, his recent play has been exclamation-point worthy. He’s also young for his class, with a May 2022 birthdate. I’m pretty excited to see what he can do the rest of the way for the Musketeers, because he’s somebody whose draft stock could rocket upward in the next few weeks.
Josiah Jordan-James, Tennessee, 6-6 SF, So.
I love sophomores. Historically, the draft has undervalued them because they’re still really young but don’t have the luster of a one-and-done. Recent late-lottery examples include Tyrese Haliburton, P.J. Washington and Donovan Mitchell, for instance.
This particular sophomore class isn’t great, especially compared to the unusually fertile 2020 draft crop, and I’ve already written about the two that I would put a late-lottery grade on (Michigan’s Franz Wagner here and Connecticut’s James Bouknight here).
Nonetheless, we always got some values from the sophomore class, and Jordan-James is the sleeper that I’ve got my eye on. He arrived at Tennessee with first-round, one-and-done hype but didn’t have a great freshman year. Now, on a Tennessee team that has two other one-and-done lottery candidates, he’s been a bit forgotten.
But quietly, Jordan-James has been a much-improved player. He isn’t a big-time scorer — in fact, he doesn’t have a 20-point game all season – but he has size, defends, and has the ability to get to a pull-up off the dribble and shoot on-balance. That latter skill is why I don’t fret too much about his shaky 3-point shooting (34.2 percent this year), especially since he shoots 81.6% from the line.
Otherwise, he fills the stat sheet. He’s a handsy, pesky defender with good size and high rates of stocks — 3.1 steals, 2.1 blocks per 100. This isn’t quite Matisse Thybulle territory, but it’s really good. You don’t see many perimeter players break either the 3-steal or 2-block threshold, let alone both.
Jordan-James isn’t a freak athlete, but he has pretty good bounce and punches above his weight on the glass (12.4 boards per 100). He makes the right play and has a high assist rate for a forward (4.2 dimes per 100).
Historically, players who don’t score at a high rate but fill out the rest of the stat sheet have been massively underdrafted. This is particularly true for those like Jordan-James who seem like they’ll be able to shoot decently. Overall, he’s the exact right package of productivity and unsexiness that makes for a good late draft pick. His upside is probably more role player than starter, but he deserves more attention.
Chris Duarte, Oregon, 6-6 SG, Sr.
While Gonzaga’s Cory Kispert is a lock to be the first senior picked, Duarte would be my next choice after him. Duarte has one giant red flag that almost automatically disqualifies him from the top 20: He’ll be 24 years old on draft night, after a long and winding path to Eugene.
That’s a bummer that limits Duarte’s upside. The good news is that he’s a plug-and-play wing who can almost certainly get into an NBA lineup right away. Duarte’s steal rate immediately gets your attention (3.6 per 100, and he’s not some 5-9 scatback doing this), and he’s done it with a very low foul rate.
More importantly, he has massively improved his shooting percentages this season. The 42.0 percent from 3 on 10.2 attempts per 100 is proof of concept that he can be an NBA-caliber floor-spacer, but it’s the 64.3 percent mark inside the arc that underscores his ability to get bucks in multiple ways.
In addition to his age, Duarte also needs to show more chops creating plays for others. He’s quick but he’s not a high-wire athlete, so that could diminish his draft-night sex appeal as well. Nonetheless, he’s been the second-best player in the Pac 12 this year (after possible top pick Evan Mobley of USC) and is flying well under the draft radar.
Bennedict Mathurin, SF, Arizona, Fr.
Since the youngest players tend to produce the best draft outcomes, I couldn’t complete this list without going back to the well for another freshman with a notable birth certificate. Draft history shows that age matters and teams undervalue it, and Mathurin’s June 2002 birthdate makes him one of the youngest players in this draft – about a year younger than each of the likely top three picks, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs and Evan Mobley.
Of Haitian-Canadian extraction by way of the NBA’s development academy in Mexico City, Mathurin speaks four languages but it’s his shooting that speaks the loudest. He’s at 41.6 percent from 3 and 85.5 percent from the line in his freshman season, while drawing fouls at a surprisingly high rate for a player whose game is mostly 3s and straight-line drives.
Moreover, Mathurin is clearly an NBA-caliber athlete with his size and leaping ability. One hopes that we can see him use that athleticism more consistently on the court as he continues developing. Mathurin looks stiff moving at times – contrast him, for instance, with the loosey-goosey quickness of Jones above – and doesn’t impact the game as much athletically as you might think. He’s only blocked one shot all season, for instance, and his rebound and steal rates are nothing to write home about.
Similarly, Mathurin isn’t as threatening on the ball as he is from the corners or cutting behind plays for alley-oops. Nonetheless, he’s been genuinely good as a young freshman in a major conference (PER 20.6), has obvious pathways to getting better, and has a size and skill combo that is massively in demand around the league. He should be a late first-rounder, at least, although he may be better served by coming out in 2022.
Matt Mitchell, 6-6 SF, San Diego State, Sr.
A member of the Ethan Strauss Memorial Fat Is Potential in Disguise All-Star Team, Mitchell’s FIPID value isn’t quite as strong now that he’s got himself in better shape, but predictably it’s helped his numbers. The San Diego State senior is a lethal pull-up jump shooter (I know: Right skill, wrong decade) who is also a master of drawing fouls without getting all the way to the basket. Mitchell is drawing 12 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions, which is absolutely insane for a guy who mostly shoots jumpers.
Defensively, he has surprisingly quick feet and hands for such a stout frame, and rebounds far above his size profile. Mitchell can struggle with ball pressure and picks up offensive fouls by relying on push-offs to generate space for his shot. However, he’s cut a previously sky-high foul rate to something more reasonable this year. You’d also like to see a bit more playmaking from him, and his shooting profile is more “good” than “knockdown” at 36.2 percent career from 3 and 80.7 percent from the line.
Between his age and mid-major profile, Mitchell almost certainly goes in the second round. But once there, I think he has a much better chance to stick as a role-playing wing than several other players who are currently rated much higher … especially if he can keep improving his body.
The draft hype cycle can be a really interesting ride sometimes.
Take Neemias Queta, for instance. As a freshman at Utah State freshly arrived from Portugal, the 7-footer was seen by many as a late first-round pick in 2019. His skill level was a concern, but he was productive at the college level from the word go, flashed obvious potential to get better, and checked the physical boxes for an NBA center.
Queta ended up pulling his name from that draft after a poor performance at the Combine. Still, with a 7-4 wingspan and 9-4 standing reach, one figured he had a chance to move up in the draft prospect world his sophomore season. Instead, he was injured early, his play leveled off, and really, who wants to make a special trip to Logan, Utah to see an old-school center? Queta’s draft stock never gained traction.
Entering this season, he’s been all but forgotten in Draftworld. He didn’t stop playing or get injured or get worse. He just kind of faded from the spotlight and people stopped talking about him.
Except there’s the thing: He’s been awesome this year. With nearly the entire regular season complete, Queta leads the Mountain West Conference in PER, Block %, Rebound %, BPM, EFG, and ZfX$. (OK, I made up the last abbreviation. But he does seriously lead in the other five).
Queta’s counting stats don’t blow you away because the Aggies play relatively slowly and he only plays 28 minutes a game. But per 100 possessions he’s averaging 29.0 points, 18.8 boards, 5.6 assists and 6.0 blocks. The eye test shows an improved player who has developed an array of moves on the low block.
Those last two numbers are especially noteworthy. Queta is the only major college player in the last decade to average at least 2.5 assists and 2.5 blocks per game. Yes, this is a random combination of two stats, but in his case, it underscores a larger truth: You don’t see shot-blocking fives who can distribute like this. Queta has become a legitimately good passer, to the point that opponents are rewriting the previous strategy of always double-teaming him on the block.
He’s only picking up steam, too. In this past weekend’s two-game series against MWC-leading Boise State, he posted back-to-back 30-10 games against one of the few teams with the stones to single-cover him. Instead of getting burned by 3s from Queta passing out of the post, Boise State opted to live with an assortment of jump hooks and baseline spins. Choose your poison. (Side note: If you only think of blue-turf football when you think of Boise State, guess again: the Broncos are 18-4, have a sleeper draft prospect of their own in Derrick Alston Jr., and had players selected in two of the past three drafts).
Nonetheless, I haven’t seen Queta get much attention as an NBA prospect. I can’t truly call him a “Bad Geography Guy” anymore since nobody is traveling to games this year, but he’s at the very least in the wrong time zone for his TV highlights to make many sparks.
There are some concerns here, to be sure. Queta is more of an old-school five, which automatically diminishes his value, and while his perimeter game is slowly coming around he won’t be bombing 3s any time soon. Some of his movement is a bit awkward too, and so it’s fair to ask whether he can defend in space as well as he defends around the rim. Offsetting that, however, is the fact that he came to Utah State from Portugal as a raw project, and is still pretty clearly on an upward trajectory.
Right now he’s the star of my “undervalued draft guys” list: Players I think have a good chance of landing in the top 40 on draft night, but haven’t received a lot of ink just yet. I should point out that this state of affairs is completely normal — the draft isn’t for another five months, and you don’t get extra credit for having the right answers in February. All the game tape will be available and inevitably, the cream will rise.
Nonetheless, as fans start watching late-season college games, I wanted to get ahead of the curve and shine a light on some prospects who may be lurking below the radar. A year ago when I did this exercise we saw several of these players move up in the process, and if I’m any good at this the same thing will happen this year.
Note that I’ve intentionally avoided the usual lottery suspects here, for two reasons. First, I like most of the same one-and-dones everyone else does at the top. Second, my hottest takes in the top 20 of this draft are on the internationals, and we’ll get to them later.
Overall, I’m not sure any of the collegians on this list are quite good enough to crash the lottery (Important side note: I reserve the right to change my mind). But, like Queta, I think these next several players have a great chance to be in that next tier of late first-round and early second-round talent, and deserve more attention:
Matthew Mayer, Baylor, 6-9 SF, Jr.
Hiding in plain sight on the best team in the country, I find it odd that Mayer has largely been ignored as a draft prospect. Playing time is a big reason: He only plays 14.7 minutes a game after playing just over 11 in each of his two seasons in Waco.
Nonetheless, Mayer is one of the few guys getting absolutely zero buzz right now who I could see surging into the first round, especially with a strong NCAA Tournament. He might have more NBA upside than the two star guards on Baylor (Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler) who get all the attention.
Mayer’s stock gets hurt by the wide range of outcomes we see in his minutes. Put simply, the Mayer experience can be a wild ride. He’ll overdribble, take questionable shots and make crazy turnovers, and can be inconsistent from one game to the next. It’s like if Aleksej Pokusevski played college ball.
But the big-picture outcome still sizzles. Mayer’s overall stats are unbelievable. He’s shooting 46.2 percent from 3 and has 27.0 PER. He can a bit upright defensively, but he guards perimeter players and bigs interchangeably and is disruptive as hell — he’s averaging 4.5 steals per 100! That puts him in the company of two other massively underdrafted recent players, Jae Crowder and Robert Covington.
Mayer isn’t just a 3-and-D guy, though. He can handle the ball and create off the dribble, he shoots 54.5 percent on 2s and he rebounds. Draft-wise, he may be better off sticking around for his senior year and being The Man after Butler and Mitchell leave, but teams should be doing their homework on him.
Colby Jones, Xavier, 6-5 SG, Fr.
While I think Jones might be more of a “next year” guy, he reminds me a lot of watching Tyrese Haliburton as a freshman at Iowa State. Jones is more filled out than Haliburton (who isn’t?) but shows the same combination of length, passing and quickness.
Amazingly, Jones wasn’t ranked as a top-100 recruit and had nonexistent draft buzz entering the season. It’s been hard for him to generate much traction until recently, because between an early injury and Xavier’s COVID-related cancellations, he’s only played in eleven games this season, and only four in the last month.
Anybody who saw his 13-point, 11-rebound, four-assist, four-steal performance against Butler on Sunday immediately swooned. Jones flashed NBA-caliber quickness and leaping ability combined with plus length, a real feel for passing, and enough ball skills to confidently plug him in at the off-guard spot. While he followed that game up with a clunker against Providence on Wednesday, the talent is real.
Jones needs to show as more as a shooter — his 3-for-5 against St. John’s a week ago was an encouraging sign, but we only have an 18-shot sample for the season here — and put more games on his resume to prove the recent outburst wasn’t a fluke. Scouts will also want to see more impact as a scorer and more left-hand drives and finishes.
Nonetheless, his recent play has been exclamation-point worthy. He’s also young for his class, with a May 2022 birthdate. I’m pretty excited to see what he can do the rest of the way for the Musketeers, because he’s somebody whose draft stock could rocket upward in the next few weeks.
Josiah Jordan-James, Tennessee, 6-6 SF, So.
I love sophomores. Historically, the draft has undervalued them because they’re still really young but don’t have the luster of a one-and-done. Recent late-lottery examples include Tyrese Haliburton, P.J. Washington and Donovan Mitchell, for instance.
This particular sophomore class isn’t great, especially compared to the unusually fertile 2020 draft crop, and I’ve already written about the two that I would put a late-lottery grade on (Michigan’s Franz Wagner here and Connecticut’s James Bouknight here).
Nonetheless, we always got some values from the sophomore class, and Jordan-James is the sleeper that I’ve got my eye on. He arrived at Tennessee with first-round, one-and-done hype but didn’t have a great freshman year. Now, on a Tennessee team that has two other one-and-done lottery candidates, he’s been a bit forgotten.
But quietly, Jordan-James has been a much-improved player. He isn’t a big-time scorer — in fact, he doesn’t have a 20-point game all season – but he has size, defends, and has the ability to get to a pull-up off the dribble and shoot on-balance. That latter skill is why I don’t fret too much about his shaky 3-point shooting (34.2 percent this year), especially since he shoots 81.6% from the line.
Otherwise, he fills the stat sheet. He’s a handsy, pesky defender with good size and high rates of stocks — 3.1 steals, 2.1 blocks per 100. This isn’t quite Matisse Thybulle territory, but it’s really good. You don’t see many perimeter players break either the 3-steal or 2-block threshold, let alone both.
Jordan-James isn’t a freak athlete, but he has pretty good bounce and punches above his weight on the glass (12.4 boards per 100). He makes the right play and has a high assist rate for a forward (4.2 dimes per 100).
Historically, players who don’t score at a high rate but fill out the rest of the stat sheet have been massively underdrafted. This is particularly true for those like Jordan-James who seem like they’ll be able to shoot decently. Overall, he’s the exact right package of productivity and unsexiness that makes for a good late draft pick. His upside is probably more role player than starter, but he deserves more attention.
Chris Duarte, Oregon, 6-6 SG, Sr.
While Gonzaga’s Cory Kispert is a lock to be the first senior picked, Duarte would be my next choice after him. Duarte has one giant red flag that almost automatically disqualifies him from the top 20: He’ll be 24 years old on draft night, after a long and winding path to Eugene.
That’s a bummer that limits Duarte’s upside. The good news is that he’s a plug-and-play wing who can almost certainly get into an NBA lineup right away. Duarte’s steal rate immediately gets your attention (3.6 per 100, and he’s not some 5-9 scatback doing this), and he’s done it with a very low foul rate.
More importantly, he has massively improved his shooting percentages this season. The 42.0 percent from 3 on 10.2 attempts per 100 is proof of concept that he can be an NBA-caliber floor-spacer, but it’s the 64.3 percent mark inside the arc that underscores his ability to get bucks in multiple ways.
In addition to his age, Duarte also needs to show more chops creating plays for others. He’s quick but he’s not a high-wire athlete, so that could diminish his draft-night sex appeal as well. Nonetheless, he’s been the second-best player in the Pac 12 this year (after possible top pick Evan Mobley of USC) and is flying well under the draft radar.
Bennedict Mathurin, SF, Arizona, Fr.
Since the youngest players tend to produce the best draft outcomes, I couldn’t complete this list without going back to the well for another freshman with a notable birth certificate. Draft history shows that age matters and teams undervalue it, and Mathurin’s June 2002 birthdate makes him one of the youngest players in this draft – about a year younger than each of the likely top three picks, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs and Evan Mobley.
Of Haitian-Canadian extraction by way of the NBA’s development academy in Mexico City, Mathurin speaks four languages but it’s his shooting that speaks the loudest. He’s at 41.6 percent from 3 and 85.5 percent from the line in his freshman season, while drawing fouls at a surprisingly high rate for a player whose game is mostly 3s and straight-line drives.
Moreover, Mathurin is clearly an NBA-caliber athlete with his size and leaping ability. One hopes that we can see him use that athleticism more consistently on the court as he continues developing. Mathurin looks stiff moving at times – contrast him, for instance, with the loosey-goosey quickness of Jones above – and doesn’t impact the game as much athletically as you might think. He’s only blocked one shot all season, for instance, and his rebound and steal rates are nothing to write home about.
Similarly, Mathurin isn’t as threatening on the ball as he is from the corners or cutting behind plays for alley-oops. Nonetheless, he’s been genuinely good as a young freshman in a major conference (PER 20.6), has obvious pathways to getting better, and has a size and skill combo that is massively in demand around the league. He should be a late first-rounder, at least, although he may be better served by coming out in 2022.
Matt Mitchell, 6-6 SF, San Diego State, Sr.
A member of the Ethan Strauss Memorial Fat Is Potential in Disguise All-Star Team, Mitchell’s FIPID value isn’t quite as strong now that he’s got himself in better shape, but predictably it’s helped his numbers. The San Diego State senior is a lethal pull-up jump shooter (I know: Right skill, wrong decade) who is also a master of drawing fouls without getting all the way to the basket. Mitchell is drawing 12 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions, which is absolutely insane for a guy who mostly shoots jumpers.
Defensively, he has surprisingly quick feet and hands for such a stout frame, and rebounds far above his size profile. Mitchell can struggle with ball pressure and picks up offensive fouls by relying on push-offs to generate space for his shot. However, he’s cut a previously sky-high foul rate to something more reasonable this year. You’d also like to see a bit more playmaking from him, and his shooting profile is more “good” than “knockdown” at 36.2 percent career from 3 and 80.7 percent from the line.
Between his age and mid-major profile, Mitchell almost certainly goes in the second round. But once there, I think he has a much better chance to stick as a role-playing wing than several other players who are currently rated much higher … especially if he can keep improving his body.
2021 NBA five-team mock draft: Who gets Cade Cunningham, other potential stars?
The NBA season is nearing its midway point. And for some teams, the 2021 NBA Draft is already the focus.
Due to the change in lottery odds, the draft order is as unpredictable as ever. However, teams like the Pistons and Timberwolves have positioned themselves nicely to land the grand prize of Oklahoma State guard Cade Cunningham. Other teams like the Wizards, Rockets and Cavaliers are in that sweet spot where the lottery odds could catapult one of them into the top spot.
Let the ping-pong balls fall how they may!
Here, The Athletic did one single Tankathon simulation to determine how the top five might shake out if the season ended today, and the beat writers for those respective teams made selections. Now, we know what you’re thinking: It’s way too early. Things can change. And you’re correct. But life won’t get much rosier for some of those teams stuck at the bottom over the next few months.
With all that said, here is the top-five draft order and selections for The Athletic’s way-too-early 2021 NBA Mock Draft.
1. Washington Wizards: Cade Cunningham, point guard, Oklahoma State. You draft the best overall player at No. 1. There’s no other way to do it — even if there would be obvious positional conflicts for Washington if they select Cunningham with the first pick. The Wizards’ highest-paid players are their guards, but Cunningham is special. You don’t pass on special. Bradley Beal will have only one year remaining on his contract at this point. Russell Westbrook, meanwhile, will be going into his age-33 season with two more years left on his deal. You can’t choose your second- or third-favorite because both are already there. You find a way to make it work with a prospect as talented as Cunningham. And I’m imagining the Wizards would, even if there might be challenges with Westbrook’s playing style. Think of how a duo of Cunningham and Beal could work together in the backcourt. Beal is the league’s leading scorer. Cunningham can engineer buckets from anywhere. If Washington has to trade Beal, fine. You already have your franchise player to usher in a new era. -Fred Katz
2. Detroit Pistons: Evan Mobley, C, USC. Part of me really wanted to take Jonathan Kuminga here. The 6-foot-8 18-year-old has been really impressive against grown men in the G League and would fit in nicely between Jerami Grant and Saddiq Bey going forward (and, from all accounts, he seems like a Troy Weaver guy). But Mobley is just too good to pass up. Offensively, the center can finish above the rim, attack close-outs, hit pull-up jumpers, turnarounds … he can do a lot of things. Defensively, it gets even better. Mobley is a premier rim protector currently averaging 3.0 blocks per game. He can hold his own on the perimeter, too. He’s long and active and just a natural disruptor. Usually, I wouldn’t draft a center this high in today’s game, but if it all clicks for Mobley, he has the potential to be a special two-way big for a long time. The fluidity, skills and IQ for his size are irresistable. -James L. Edwards III
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jalen Suggs, G, Gonzaga. Let’s start by just saying the Wolves are happy to be here. The roll of the Tankathon lotto played out in their favor; had they fallen one more spot, my guy Anthony Slater from the Golden State beat would be making this pick. This one is still up in the air, depending on how D’Angelo Russell comes back from knee surgery in a few weeks. But even if he plays well down the stretch, I still think the Wolves go with the dynamic playmaker from the Twin Cities. Gersson Rosas has doubled down on the wide-open philosophy by hiring Chris Finch, so they need as many offensive threats as possible. Suggs has great size and strength as well as a great feel for the game. He would really help get the Minnesota offense moving and give the Wolves another option should Russell’s health or fit in the system continue to be an issue. -Jon Krawczynski
4. Houston Rockets: Jonathan Kuminga, W, G League Ignite. It’s been a while! The first thing that jumps off the page from Kuminga is his size. He has a legit NBA wing body, measuring in at 6-foot-8, 210 pounds. One of Houston’s underlying issues for years has been the lack of a bonafide explosive forward. Kuminga has a good chance to be just that. Head coach Stephen Silas has put defense first, and with a 7-foot-plus wingspan, Kuminga’s versatility fits right in with what the Rockets are doing. From all accounts and by watching him live, the 18-year-old Kuminga has been really impressive against the grown men in the G League. He’s utilized his nice blend of size, versatility and shot creation at a position that NBA teams covet. Kuminga would slot right in with the Rockets’ style of play like a glove. Victor Oladipo could be gone next season, which would leave Houston in immediate need of some top-end scoring chops in the short- and long-term. Among the players available, Kuminga appears to have the highest upside in that regard. Rockets fans would salivate at the prospect of developing Kuminga and Jae’Sean Tate at their forward positions for years to come. -Kelly Iko
5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Jalen Green, G, G League Ignite. Do you choose based on positional fit or best player available? If you’re looking for the best player available, Jalen Green, the 6-foot-5, 19-year-old guard, is the name at this spot. There’s obviously positional overlap here with Darius Garland and Collin Sexton as the Cavs’ starting guard duo, but Damyean Dotson as the only true guard behind Garland and Sexton with Matthew Dellavedova still sidelined due to injury and on a one-year deal. They would have to sort out the combinations of playing their guards together – especially with Dotson taking on responsibilities as a backup point guard in certain situations – yet, through eight games with Ignite, Green is averaging 17.6 points per game in 30.9 minutes. He’s also shooting 50.5 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from 3. While Green is averaging four defensive rebounds per game with Ignite, his defensive effort will have to continue to develop in order to fit the style of play that the Cavs are building as their identity. But if he can refine his defense, he has immense potential. -Kelsey Russo
The NBA season is nearing its midway point. And for some teams, the 2021 NBA Draft is already the focus.
Due to the change in lottery odds, the draft order is as unpredictable as ever. However, teams like the Pistons and Timberwolves have positioned themselves nicely to land the grand prize of Oklahoma State guard Cade Cunningham. Other teams like the Wizards, Rockets and Cavaliers are in that sweet spot where the lottery odds could catapult one of them into the top spot.
Let the ping-pong balls fall how they may!
Here, The Athletic did one single Tankathon simulation to determine how the top five might shake out if the season ended today, and the beat writers for those respective teams made selections. Now, we know what you’re thinking: It’s way too early. Things can change. And you’re correct. But life won’t get much rosier for some of those teams stuck at the bottom over the next few months.
With all that said, here is the top-five draft order and selections for The Athletic’s way-too-early 2021 NBA Mock Draft.
1. Washington Wizards: Cade Cunningham, point guard, Oklahoma State. You draft the best overall player at No. 1. There’s no other way to do it — even if there would be obvious positional conflicts for Washington if they select Cunningham with the first pick. The Wizards’ highest-paid players are their guards, but Cunningham is special. You don’t pass on special. Bradley Beal will have only one year remaining on his contract at this point. Russell Westbrook, meanwhile, will be going into his age-33 season with two more years left on his deal. You can’t choose your second- or third-favorite because both are already there. You find a way to make it work with a prospect as talented as Cunningham. And I’m imagining the Wizards would, even if there might be challenges with Westbrook’s playing style. Think of how a duo of Cunningham and Beal could work together in the backcourt. Beal is the league’s leading scorer. Cunningham can engineer buckets from anywhere. If Washington has to trade Beal, fine. You already have your franchise player to usher in a new era. -Fred Katz
2. Detroit Pistons: Evan Mobley, C, USC. Part of me really wanted to take Jonathan Kuminga here. The 6-foot-8 18-year-old has been really impressive against grown men in the G League and would fit in nicely between Jerami Grant and Saddiq Bey going forward (and, from all accounts, he seems like a Troy Weaver guy). But Mobley is just too good to pass up. Offensively, the center can finish above the rim, attack close-outs, hit pull-up jumpers, turnarounds … he can do a lot of things. Defensively, it gets even better. Mobley is a premier rim protector currently averaging 3.0 blocks per game. He can hold his own on the perimeter, too. He’s long and active and just a natural disruptor. Usually, I wouldn’t draft a center this high in today’s game, but if it all clicks for Mobley, he has the potential to be a special two-way big for a long time. The fluidity, skills and IQ for his size are irresistable. -James L. Edwards III
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jalen Suggs, G, Gonzaga. Let’s start by just saying the Wolves are happy to be here. The roll of the Tankathon lotto played out in their favor; had they fallen one more spot, my guy Anthony Slater from the Golden State beat would be making this pick. This one is still up in the air, depending on how D’Angelo Russell comes back from knee surgery in a few weeks. But even if he plays well down the stretch, I still think the Wolves go with the dynamic playmaker from the Twin Cities. Gersson Rosas has doubled down on the wide-open philosophy by hiring Chris Finch, so they need as many offensive threats as possible. Suggs has great size and strength as well as a great feel for the game. He would really help get the Minnesota offense moving and give the Wolves another option should Russell’s health or fit in the system continue to be an issue. -Jon Krawczynski
4. Houston Rockets: Jonathan Kuminga, W, G League Ignite. It’s been a while! The first thing that jumps off the page from Kuminga is his size. He has a legit NBA wing body, measuring in at 6-foot-8, 210 pounds. One of Houston’s underlying issues for years has been the lack of a bonafide explosive forward. Kuminga has a good chance to be just that. Head coach Stephen Silas has put defense first, and with a 7-foot-plus wingspan, Kuminga’s versatility fits right in with what the Rockets are doing. From all accounts and by watching him live, the 18-year-old Kuminga has been really impressive against the grown men in the G League. He’s utilized his nice blend of size, versatility and shot creation at a position that NBA teams covet. Kuminga would slot right in with the Rockets’ style of play like a glove. Victor Oladipo could be gone next season, which would leave Houston in immediate need of some top-end scoring chops in the short- and long-term. Among the players available, Kuminga appears to have the highest upside in that regard. Rockets fans would salivate at the prospect of developing Kuminga and Jae’Sean Tate at their forward positions for years to come. -Kelly Iko
5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Jalen Green, G, G League Ignite. Do you choose based on positional fit or best player available? If you’re looking for the best player available, Jalen Green, the 6-foot-5, 19-year-old guard, is the name at this spot. There’s obviously positional overlap here with Darius Garland and Collin Sexton as the Cavs’ starting guard duo, but Damyean Dotson as the only true guard behind Garland and Sexton with Matthew Dellavedova still sidelined due to injury and on a one-year deal. They would have to sort out the combinations of playing their guards together – especially with Dotson taking on responsibilities as a backup point guard in certain situations – yet, through eight games with Ignite, Green is averaging 17.6 points per game in 30.9 minutes. He’s also shooting 50.5 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from 3. While Green is averaging four defensive rebounds per game with Ignite, his defensive effort will have to continue to develop in order to fit the style of play that the Cavs are building as their identity. But if he can refine his defense, he has immense potential. -Kelsey Russo
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What we learned in the G League bubble: Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Green and the NBA's next stars
The 2021 NBA G League schedule tipped off in Orlando on Feb. 10, with 17 G League teams joining the G League Ignite program -- launched to offer players who are not yet eligible for the NBA draft a domestic path to the league -- for a 135-game regular season followed by a single-elimination playoff tournament that will begin March 8. ESPN was in Orlando to evaluate the four Ignite players who are part of the G League's Pathway program and are eligible for the 2021 NBA draft -- potential top-5 picks Jonathan Kuminga and Jalen Green along with possible first-rounders Daishen Nix and Isaiah Todd.
Here's the latest on all four Ignite stars, including inside intel from NBA executives we spoke to in Orlando, Kuminga's growing No. 1 pick case and the next steps for Green. ESPN also looked ahead to the future of the G League Ignite program, identifying some of the names from the 2022 NBA draft class who could be targets for the second edition of the Ignite squad, including potential 2022 No. 1 NBA draft pick Chet Holmgren.
Ignite team arrives ahead of schedule ... in an improved league
The NBA's introduction to the G League Ignite team came in a pair of December scrimmages in which five teenage starters played against a mostly anonymous group of G League backups in their mid-to-late 20s.
"A good old fashioned butt-whooping," coach Brian Shaw said of the scrimmages, the second of which saw his Ignite team fall behind by 25 points at halftime. "It was good for us."
NBA executives told ESPN at the time that they didn't expect Ignite -- the new entity highlighted by Jalen Green and others who passed up college basketball to prepare for the draft in a professional setting -- to win a single game in the regular season.
Fast-forward to February, and a very different situation has emerged in the G League bubble outside of Orlando.
Shaw is now staggering the minutes of Green and the younger prospects -- mostly playing only two of them together at a time -- alongside rock-solid veterans Jarrett Jack, Donta Hall and Brandon Ashley. The Ignite find themselves at 6-3 and right in the thick of the playoff race, in a tie for fourth ahead of the G League's eight-team, single-elimination tournament to be played March 8-11.
Outside of one ugly blowout to the Erie Bayhawks (127-87), the Ignite have been competitive in every game they have played, rarely looking overmatched in a league that has taken tangible steps to improve its quality.
Reducing the number of teams from 28 to 18 has eliminated roughly 100 players from the bottom end of the league that lowered the level of past competition. In Orlando, there are 66 former NBA draft picks scattered about the 17 rosters (not including those on Ignite), including 28 of 60 players picked in the 2020 NBA Draft. That's in addition to the roughly 25 players on two-way contracts who have been on assignment in the G League. Eliminating commercial travel and having all teams in a single location has gone a long way in helping keep teams fresh.
While the intensity level of the G League fluctuates from game to game due to its fast-paced, 3-point heavy, small-ball nature, there is no question that the Ignite get every team's best shot due to the huge amount of NBA eyeballs on their every game.
NBA executives I talked to in Orlando almost uniformly agreed that watching the Ignite's draft prospects play under NBA rules and against high-level professionals was extremely helpful for their assessments. Evaluators can now worry less about how college or international prospects will translate their skills to the NBA. Can a player extend his range to the NBA 3-point line? How will he deal with the 3-second defensive violation rules? How does his size and athleticism compare with NBA players? The answers are right here.
How that translates on draft night is yet to be decided, but there's a good case to be made that all four prospects have helped themselves significantly thus far.
Here's a closer look at those future stars and others who have made an impression in Orlando, as well as a look ahead to what 2022 could bring for the Ignite squad:
Jonathan Kuminga: A case for the No. 1 pick?
NBA executive attendance peaked in the first week of the G League bubble, which happened to coincide with Kuminga's best stretch of play and caused many in the group to openly ponder his candidacy as the potential No. 1 pick in the draft. Kuminga averaged 22 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists per game in his first three contests -- though he's struggled to score efficiently at times since. His jump shot has been streaky, his decision-making questionable at times and his defensive lapses more frequent.
Kuminga is perhaps the most physically gifted prospect in this draft class, something that was noticeable even against current and former NBA players, whom he mostly towers over from the small forward position. At 6-foot-8 with long arms and a tremendous frame, Kuminga is quick, powerful and explosive with outstanding balance, fluidity and body control. He has a chance to dominate his position in the NBA from a physical standpoint thanks to his superior tools and rapidly improving ball skills.
Kuminga's potential as a shot-creator has stood out, be it in isolation, post-ups or out of pick-and-roll. He's shifty with the ball, has polished footwork and long strides changing speeds out of hesitation moves and is highly instinctual using shot-fakes, step-throughs, spin moves and other advanced moves that are difficult to contain considering his size, strength and skill finishing creatively with either hand.
"He's a nightmare -- if they put a smaller guy on him, he takes advantage of that. If you put a bigger guy on him, he drives around him," Shaw said.
Kuminga struggles when his initial move is contained, as he's an average passer who doesn't see the floor very well and settles too often for difficult, low-percentage pull-up jumpers. Kuminga hasn't gotten to the free throw line very often and is shooting just 49% from 2-point range, a poor mark.
While improving his decision making and playing less of a catch-and-hold style will go a long way in making him a more efficient offensive player, Kuminga's jump shot has plenty of room to grow as well, partially due to his shot selection. He's just 12-of-47 (26%) from beyond the 3-point line thus far, struggling equally with his feet set and off the dribble. NBA executives seem to have mixed opinions on how good of a shooter they see Kuminga developing into long-term.
Some note the quantity of makes (over one 3-pointer per game), his deep range, the confidence he demonstrates in his stroke and the fact that the ball comes out of his hand nicely with a consistent release point, even off movement. Others are concerned about his historically low percentages from the free throw line (67% in the G League, in line with the rest of his career) and the fact that he sprays his misses in all different directions, including frequently not hitting the rim.
"The more experience he gets, the better feel for the game he's going to get," Shaw said. "If anything, trusting that if he gives the ball up he's going to get it back. That's the case with all our young guys."
Defensively, Kuminga has drawn mixed reactions as well. This side of the floor is where the transition from high school to the pro game is usually the steepest, and that's been the case for Kuminga. His focus and intensity level has fluctuated in the G League as it has for much of his career, and his awareness off the ball leaves a lot to be desired as well. Navigating screens, biting on fakes and gambling in passing lanes are some of the issues he'll have to clean up long-term.
"He's the one guy from the young guys that has the physicality, the body to be physical already at the next level," Shaw said.
With that said, Kuminga will be as good a defender as he wants to be when it's all said and done, as he has the physical tools of an All-NBA defender when evaluating his combination of size, length, strength, quickness and agility.
When Kuminga is locked in and competing to his full potential he's an absolute marvel with his ability to sit down and contain smaller players, cover ground seamlessly on closeouts, or switch onto bigger players and hold them off in the post. Playing the small forward position has been good experience for Kuminga in terms of learning how to guard smaller, quicker players and operate in larger spaces off the ball, something that has yielded mixed results but should pay off long term.
NBA teams will want to see how much Kuminga is able to grow over the remainder of the G League season in terms of his understanding of the game on both ends of the floor and ability to put his phenomenal tools to use more consistently. He has already solidified himself as one of the best prospects in the draft, drawing comparisons to the likes of Jaylen Brown and DeMar DeRozan, and could further improve his candidacy for the No. 1 pick with a strong finish.
Jalen Green: Dangerous in transition, half-court game incomplete
While Kuminga got off to the stronger start, Green has been the Ignite's most consistent player overall, leading the team in scoring and doing so on strong percentages (54% on 2s and 37% on 3s) while demonstrating growth as a playmaker as the season has moved on.
Green's highlights speak for themselves, as his explosiveness and track-meet-style quickness are arguably the best in this draft. That has manifested itself most notably in transition, where Green has been an absolute terror in the wide-open G League, turning defense to offense in the blink of an eye and getting deep in the paint regularly for show-stopping finishes.
"He understands that he's a target," Shaw said. "Probably the highest-paid player here. He gets the most recognition. Every single game I can feel that the other team is targeting him. He's used to that -- not on this level, but he's always had a target on his back. He's never backed down from that."
The half court has been more of a mixed bag for Green, which is not unexpected considering his thin frame, lack of polish and experience. Green's ballhandling, passing and overall decision-making still aren't at the level they need to be in order to consistently play efficient basketball against this level of competition, but the NBA executives who are highest on his long-term potential believe it's only a matter of time until this comes because of his scoring instincts and quick-twitch ability to change gears powerfully and get himself to the rim.
Green's shot-making has been a revelation in the bubble thus far, as he's proven to be a major weapon pulling up off the dribble, progressing from what he had shown in his senior year of high school. The fact that defenses need to respect his jumper coming off a ball screen, even from beyond the NBA line, has opened up quite a few options for him operating in pick-and-roll.
As he continues to get stronger and is able to handle contact better in the lane, Green has some real equity as the type of big, playmaking guard every NBA team covets, something he has shown flashes of inconsistently.
In the meantime, the fact that Green is such a dangerous transition scorer, as well as a capable spot-up shooter off the ball, should allow him to be productive early in his career as his ball skills continue to progress.
"The growth has come in the confidence in knowing that he belongs," Shaw said. "That comes with getting a better understanding of the physicality and speed of the game. Knowing when to pick and choose his spots."
Green's defense has been inconsistent in the bubble. He has seen a lot of minutes defending the opposing team's primary ball handler, where his lack of strength and average awareness navigating ball screens has led to some poor results. Green is still learning the nuances of pick-and-roll defense, and his at times inconsistent intensity has worked against him.
A welcome sign has been the fight he has shown as the season has progressed in terms of getting in a stance, sliding his feet and using his quickness to create turnovers or his explosiveness to contest shots at the rim or on the perimeter. The fact that Green is both tough and competitive should allow him to improve rapidly here as his frame evolves, but he'll surely have his struggles on the defensive end early in his career.
"He's really getting better on the defensive end," Shaw said. "Guys try to take advantage of him because of his slight build, but he's sliding his feet, holding his ground, getting better and better at negotiating his way through professional NBA sets that he's having to defend for the first time."
Green has done nothing to detract from his status as a projected top-five pick with his play in Orlando, and there are teams who believe he is deserving of consideration at No. 1 as well. Continuing to show that his jump shot is a real asset and that he can make good decisions on both ends of the floor as the stakes get higher will go a long way in solidifying his standing.
Daishen Nix: A physical guard, but concerns abound
Nix has been up-and-down as a scorer but has proven to be one of the best passers in the G League bubble, as well as the second-best rebounding guard in the league, a testament to the versatility and instincts the 19-year old possesses. At 6-5, 230 pounds, Nix has an advantage over virtually every guard he matches up with both in terms of size and physicality -- he has been extremely difficult for G League guards to handle attacking the paint.
Several NBA executives in Orlando expressed disappointment with the poor conditioning level that Nix came into the G League displaying, as he has gained more than 20 pounds of mostly bad weight since his high school days, raising questions whether he could have done a better of job taking care of his body. Getting Nix in better shape shouldn't be too big of a task, but teams have been left to ponder how he allowed this to happen considering the stakes of this shortened season and whether his off-court habits and approach are something to be concerned with long term.
Nix undoubtedly has the best feel for the game of any of the G League prospects, which when combined with his size and strength gives him an easy NBA skill to hang his hat on. He has looked quite natural running a team despite making the steep transition from high school to the pro game despite playing the most difficult position to master, which speaks to the instincts he possesses and how naturally the game comes to him. That manifests itself most vividly with the phenomenal creativity he displays as a passer, as Nix is a natural at manipulating ball screens, changing speeds and passing with either hand on the move.
He uses both sides of the floor, has phenomenal touch on his lobs and throws one or two magnificent outlet passes per game the full length of the floor to a teammate in full stride for an easy basket. That creativity can lead to some overconfidence in the difficulty of passes he delivers, as Nix has turned the ball over on 23% of his possessions thus far, a very high rate.
Nix has been a mixed bag as a scorer. While capable of bullying smaller guards en route to the rim, he is just an average finisher at this stage. Nix plays exclusively below the rim, relies heavily on floaters, runners and other touch shots in traffic, leading to mixed results (45% on 2s).
Nix's jump shot is undoubtedly his swing skill at the NBA level. G League teams don't think twice about going under ball screens, and Nix has struggled badly to punish them for doing so, hitting just 3-of-17 of the pull-up jumpers he has attempted in the bubble thus far, per Synergy Sports Technology. The fact that he's capable of making 3-pointers with his feet set does give him some flexibility in operating off the ball, but until he develops some semblance of a pull-up game -- at least operating in midrange spots -- it's going to be difficult to fully unlock his playmaking ability because he's not any kind of jet with the ball.
Nix's defense will also play a significant factor in how quickly he's able to carve out a niche at the NBA level. The results have been highly inconsistent so far, as Nix has struggled badly to stay in front of quicker guards in open spaces, not demonstrating the foot speed to avoid getting blown by off the dribble and forcing his teammates to scramble in rotation constantly. Getting in better shape should help, but playing with a higher intensity level will be imperative as well.
Nix is too often caught standing straight up out of a stance off the ball, wanting to gamble in the passing lanes instead. Nix's excellent reaction speed and overall terrific instincts -- as evidenced by his phenomenal rebounding numbers -- indicate there's some potential to improve as his technique, experience and effort evolves, but it's going to take patience and development to get to the point that he's not a negative on this end of the floor.
Perhaps more than any of the other Ignite prospects, Nix has a lot to gain from a strong finish to the G League season, and then a productive pre-draft process answering questions about his body type and approach to the game. His draft stock is all over the map depending on which NBA executive you ask, with some feeling he's comfortably showing he's worthy of a first-round selection and others seeing him as more of a second-round flier.
Isaiah Todd: From afterthought to first-rounder?
Todd has helped himself as much as any player in the bubble so far. After entering the G League season projected to go undrafted, he has dropped enough glimpses of potential that some executives are openly considering his candidacy as a first-round pick.
There aren't many big men in the G League who have shown better perimeter shooting ability than the 6-foot-10 Todd has thus far, hitting 39% of his 3-point attempts. He has picture-perfect mechanics both with his feet set and even off movement -- Todd can pull up off the dribble or come off a screen (mostly midrange curls) in small doses. There's a theoretical quality to Todd's game that doesn't fully translate to game settings just yet, but watching him in warm-ups or drill situations reveals a very high skill level that could potentially be honed into a real weapon over time.
For as interesting as Todd's shooting stroke is, he's a fairly limited offensive player at this time, as evidenced by his poor 40% 2-point percentage, and the fact that he has dished out just 3 assists in 202 minutes of action thus far, ranking dead last among all players in assist percentage in the ESPN top-100 prospect rankings. It's difficult to find many power forwards in the NBA who have such limited ability to make decisions on the fly and make plays out of simple actions -- this is by far the biggest thing he'll have to work on. Patterning his game on NBA players such as JaMychal Green and Bobby Portis will likely represent Todd's best path to success.
Defensively, Todd has unquestionably been the Ignite's hardest-working player so far. He's blessed with outstanding mobility that allows him to cover ground seamlessly on closeouts, get back in transition to challenge shots at the rim and even sit down in a stance and slide his feet against smaller players on switches much more effectively than you'd expect.
Todd isn't much of a playmaker on the defensive end, averaging a paltry 7.5 rebounds, 0.6 steals and 0.8 blocks per 40 minutes, which underscores his lack of length (7-foot-1 wingspan) and the fact that the game simply moves too fast for him at this stage -- something that has long been considered his biggest weakness. While he plays hard, he's not a very physical big man on top of that, partially due to his slender frame. While theoretically you'd like to see a big man his size slide up to the center position at times in smaller, stretchier lineups, there are real question marks about whether Todd's frame and lack of defensive rebounding will allow him to do so, which renders him less versatile than most teams want to see from a modern big man.
Many eyebrows were raised around the basketball industry when Todd opted to forgo a scholarship at Michigan for the G League Ignite program, but that decision appears to be paying off in a major way thus far. It's unclear what kind of role he would have had for a stacked Michigan frontcourt, or how well his style of play would have fit into its offense. There's no question that the uptempo style of play of the G League suits his game better, helping Todd solidify his standing as a potential draft pick, and possibly even as a first-round pick depending on how the rest of his season and the pre-draft process goes.
Looking ahead to the 2022 Ignite squad
With the G League Ignite program looking like a resounding success for both prospects and the NBA at these early stages, many around the industry are wondering what next season could bring. Will the league be able to shell out huge contracts to another crop of Ignite players?
Sources say the G League is being very aggressive approaching top recruits, including those who are committed to schools. Top-10 recruits Jaden Hardy and Michael Foster are considered G League "leans" right now, and a significant push to land potential 2022 No. 1 pick Chet Holmgren is underway as well. Five-star big man Efton Reid, who is in the midst of a postgraduate year at IMG Academy and is draft eligible in 2021, is another possibility for the G League if he doesn't like what he's hearing from the NBA regarding his draft prospects this spring and summer.
The big wild card is the potential progress the NCAA makes with name, image and likeness legislation. For example, Gonzaga's ability to counter a lucrative offer to Holmgren from the G League could hinge on his ability to cash in on NIL as a collegian. Would the new legislation allow Holmgren to land a sneaker deal while in college? Other endorsement opportunities? Unfortunately for college basketball fans, the snail's pace at which this legislation is moving along might end up making this a moot point.
The G League will surely want to find ways to make their program financially viable as well. Major sponsorship opportunities for naming rights, as well as trips abroad for barnstorming tours to places like the Philippines, never became a serious option due to the pandemic, sources say. The NBA surely will want to see a return on their investment at some point, which could begin to happen as early as next season if the right pieces are in place.
With an $8.8 billion dollar television contract for the NCAA tournament locked in until 2032, the NCAA likely won't feel much of a threat if Ignite continues to take only a handful of top prospects every year, something it openly encouraged the NBA to do via the Rice Commission recommendations.
The 2021 NBA G League schedule tipped off in Orlando on Feb. 10, with 17 G League teams joining the G League Ignite program -- launched to offer players who are not yet eligible for the NBA draft a domestic path to the league -- for a 135-game regular season followed by a single-elimination playoff tournament that will begin March 8. ESPN was in Orlando to evaluate the four Ignite players who are part of the G League's Pathway program and are eligible for the 2021 NBA draft -- potential top-5 picks Jonathan Kuminga and Jalen Green along with possible first-rounders Daishen Nix and Isaiah Todd.
Here's the latest on all four Ignite stars, including inside intel from NBA executives we spoke to in Orlando, Kuminga's growing No. 1 pick case and the next steps for Green. ESPN also looked ahead to the future of the G League Ignite program, identifying some of the names from the 2022 NBA draft class who could be targets for the second edition of the Ignite squad, including potential 2022 No. 1 NBA draft pick Chet Holmgren.
Ignite team arrives ahead of schedule ... in an improved league
The NBA's introduction to the G League Ignite team came in a pair of December scrimmages in which five teenage starters played against a mostly anonymous group of G League backups in their mid-to-late 20s.
"A good old fashioned butt-whooping," coach Brian Shaw said of the scrimmages, the second of which saw his Ignite team fall behind by 25 points at halftime. "It was good for us."
NBA executives told ESPN at the time that they didn't expect Ignite -- the new entity highlighted by Jalen Green and others who passed up college basketball to prepare for the draft in a professional setting -- to win a single game in the regular season.
Fast-forward to February, and a very different situation has emerged in the G League bubble outside of Orlando.
Shaw is now staggering the minutes of Green and the younger prospects -- mostly playing only two of them together at a time -- alongside rock-solid veterans Jarrett Jack, Donta Hall and Brandon Ashley. The Ignite find themselves at 6-3 and right in the thick of the playoff race, in a tie for fourth ahead of the G League's eight-team, single-elimination tournament to be played March 8-11.
Outside of one ugly blowout to the Erie Bayhawks (127-87), the Ignite have been competitive in every game they have played, rarely looking overmatched in a league that has taken tangible steps to improve its quality.
Reducing the number of teams from 28 to 18 has eliminated roughly 100 players from the bottom end of the league that lowered the level of past competition. In Orlando, there are 66 former NBA draft picks scattered about the 17 rosters (not including those on Ignite), including 28 of 60 players picked in the 2020 NBA Draft. That's in addition to the roughly 25 players on two-way contracts who have been on assignment in the G League. Eliminating commercial travel and having all teams in a single location has gone a long way in helping keep teams fresh.
While the intensity level of the G League fluctuates from game to game due to its fast-paced, 3-point heavy, small-ball nature, there is no question that the Ignite get every team's best shot due to the huge amount of NBA eyeballs on their every game.
NBA executives I talked to in Orlando almost uniformly agreed that watching the Ignite's draft prospects play under NBA rules and against high-level professionals was extremely helpful for their assessments. Evaluators can now worry less about how college or international prospects will translate their skills to the NBA. Can a player extend his range to the NBA 3-point line? How will he deal with the 3-second defensive violation rules? How does his size and athleticism compare with NBA players? The answers are right here.
How that translates on draft night is yet to be decided, but there's a good case to be made that all four prospects have helped themselves significantly thus far.
Here's a closer look at those future stars and others who have made an impression in Orlando, as well as a look ahead to what 2022 could bring for the Ignite squad:
Jonathan Kuminga: A case for the No. 1 pick?
NBA executive attendance peaked in the first week of the G League bubble, which happened to coincide with Kuminga's best stretch of play and caused many in the group to openly ponder his candidacy as the potential No. 1 pick in the draft. Kuminga averaged 22 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists per game in his first three contests -- though he's struggled to score efficiently at times since. His jump shot has been streaky, his decision-making questionable at times and his defensive lapses more frequent.
Kuminga is perhaps the most physically gifted prospect in this draft class, something that was noticeable even against current and former NBA players, whom he mostly towers over from the small forward position. At 6-foot-8 with long arms and a tremendous frame, Kuminga is quick, powerful and explosive with outstanding balance, fluidity and body control. He has a chance to dominate his position in the NBA from a physical standpoint thanks to his superior tools and rapidly improving ball skills.
Kuminga's potential as a shot-creator has stood out, be it in isolation, post-ups or out of pick-and-roll. He's shifty with the ball, has polished footwork and long strides changing speeds out of hesitation moves and is highly instinctual using shot-fakes, step-throughs, spin moves and other advanced moves that are difficult to contain considering his size, strength and skill finishing creatively with either hand.
"He's a nightmare -- if they put a smaller guy on him, he takes advantage of that. If you put a bigger guy on him, he drives around him," Shaw said.
Kuminga struggles when his initial move is contained, as he's an average passer who doesn't see the floor very well and settles too often for difficult, low-percentage pull-up jumpers. Kuminga hasn't gotten to the free throw line very often and is shooting just 49% from 2-point range, a poor mark.
While improving his decision making and playing less of a catch-and-hold style will go a long way in making him a more efficient offensive player, Kuminga's jump shot has plenty of room to grow as well, partially due to his shot selection. He's just 12-of-47 (26%) from beyond the 3-point line thus far, struggling equally with his feet set and off the dribble. NBA executives seem to have mixed opinions on how good of a shooter they see Kuminga developing into long-term.
Some note the quantity of makes (over one 3-pointer per game), his deep range, the confidence he demonstrates in his stroke and the fact that the ball comes out of his hand nicely with a consistent release point, even off movement. Others are concerned about his historically low percentages from the free throw line (67% in the G League, in line with the rest of his career) and the fact that he sprays his misses in all different directions, including frequently not hitting the rim.
"The more experience he gets, the better feel for the game he's going to get," Shaw said. "If anything, trusting that if he gives the ball up he's going to get it back. That's the case with all our young guys."
Defensively, Kuminga has drawn mixed reactions as well. This side of the floor is where the transition from high school to the pro game is usually the steepest, and that's been the case for Kuminga. His focus and intensity level has fluctuated in the G League as it has for much of his career, and his awareness off the ball leaves a lot to be desired as well. Navigating screens, biting on fakes and gambling in passing lanes are some of the issues he'll have to clean up long-term.
"He's the one guy from the young guys that has the physicality, the body to be physical already at the next level," Shaw said.
With that said, Kuminga will be as good a defender as he wants to be when it's all said and done, as he has the physical tools of an All-NBA defender when evaluating his combination of size, length, strength, quickness and agility.
When Kuminga is locked in and competing to his full potential he's an absolute marvel with his ability to sit down and contain smaller players, cover ground seamlessly on closeouts, or switch onto bigger players and hold them off in the post. Playing the small forward position has been good experience for Kuminga in terms of learning how to guard smaller, quicker players and operate in larger spaces off the ball, something that has yielded mixed results but should pay off long term.
NBA teams will want to see how much Kuminga is able to grow over the remainder of the G League season in terms of his understanding of the game on both ends of the floor and ability to put his phenomenal tools to use more consistently. He has already solidified himself as one of the best prospects in the draft, drawing comparisons to the likes of Jaylen Brown and DeMar DeRozan, and could further improve his candidacy for the No. 1 pick with a strong finish.
Jalen Green: Dangerous in transition, half-court game incomplete
While Kuminga got off to the stronger start, Green has been the Ignite's most consistent player overall, leading the team in scoring and doing so on strong percentages (54% on 2s and 37% on 3s) while demonstrating growth as a playmaker as the season has moved on.
Green's highlights speak for themselves, as his explosiveness and track-meet-style quickness are arguably the best in this draft. That has manifested itself most notably in transition, where Green has been an absolute terror in the wide-open G League, turning defense to offense in the blink of an eye and getting deep in the paint regularly for show-stopping finishes.
"He understands that he's a target," Shaw said. "Probably the highest-paid player here. He gets the most recognition. Every single game I can feel that the other team is targeting him. He's used to that -- not on this level, but he's always had a target on his back. He's never backed down from that."
The half court has been more of a mixed bag for Green, which is not unexpected considering his thin frame, lack of polish and experience. Green's ballhandling, passing and overall decision-making still aren't at the level they need to be in order to consistently play efficient basketball against this level of competition, but the NBA executives who are highest on his long-term potential believe it's only a matter of time until this comes because of his scoring instincts and quick-twitch ability to change gears powerfully and get himself to the rim.
Green's shot-making has been a revelation in the bubble thus far, as he's proven to be a major weapon pulling up off the dribble, progressing from what he had shown in his senior year of high school. The fact that defenses need to respect his jumper coming off a ball screen, even from beyond the NBA line, has opened up quite a few options for him operating in pick-and-roll.
As he continues to get stronger and is able to handle contact better in the lane, Green has some real equity as the type of big, playmaking guard every NBA team covets, something he has shown flashes of inconsistently.
In the meantime, the fact that Green is such a dangerous transition scorer, as well as a capable spot-up shooter off the ball, should allow him to be productive early in his career as his ball skills continue to progress.
"The growth has come in the confidence in knowing that he belongs," Shaw said. "That comes with getting a better understanding of the physicality and speed of the game. Knowing when to pick and choose his spots."
Green's defense has been inconsistent in the bubble. He has seen a lot of minutes defending the opposing team's primary ball handler, where his lack of strength and average awareness navigating ball screens has led to some poor results. Green is still learning the nuances of pick-and-roll defense, and his at times inconsistent intensity has worked against him.
A welcome sign has been the fight he has shown as the season has progressed in terms of getting in a stance, sliding his feet and using his quickness to create turnovers or his explosiveness to contest shots at the rim or on the perimeter. The fact that Green is both tough and competitive should allow him to improve rapidly here as his frame evolves, but he'll surely have his struggles on the defensive end early in his career.
"He's really getting better on the defensive end," Shaw said. "Guys try to take advantage of him because of his slight build, but he's sliding his feet, holding his ground, getting better and better at negotiating his way through professional NBA sets that he's having to defend for the first time."
Green has done nothing to detract from his status as a projected top-five pick with his play in Orlando, and there are teams who believe he is deserving of consideration at No. 1 as well. Continuing to show that his jump shot is a real asset and that he can make good decisions on both ends of the floor as the stakes get higher will go a long way in solidifying his standing.
Daishen Nix: A physical guard, but concerns abound
Nix has been up-and-down as a scorer but has proven to be one of the best passers in the G League bubble, as well as the second-best rebounding guard in the league, a testament to the versatility and instincts the 19-year old possesses. At 6-5, 230 pounds, Nix has an advantage over virtually every guard he matches up with both in terms of size and physicality -- he has been extremely difficult for G League guards to handle attacking the paint.
Several NBA executives in Orlando expressed disappointment with the poor conditioning level that Nix came into the G League displaying, as he has gained more than 20 pounds of mostly bad weight since his high school days, raising questions whether he could have done a better of job taking care of his body. Getting Nix in better shape shouldn't be too big of a task, but teams have been left to ponder how he allowed this to happen considering the stakes of this shortened season and whether his off-court habits and approach are something to be concerned with long term.
Nix undoubtedly has the best feel for the game of any of the G League prospects, which when combined with his size and strength gives him an easy NBA skill to hang his hat on. He has looked quite natural running a team despite making the steep transition from high school to the pro game despite playing the most difficult position to master, which speaks to the instincts he possesses and how naturally the game comes to him. That manifests itself most vividly with the phenomenal creativity he displays as a passer, as Nix is a natural at manipulating ball screens, changing speeds and passing with either hand on the move.
He uses both sides of the floor, has phenomenal touch on his lobs and throws one or two magnificent outlet passes per game the full length of the floor to a teammate in full stride for an easy basket. That creativity can lead to some overconfidence in the difficulty of passes he delivers, as Nix has turned the ball over on 23% of his possessions thus far, a very high rate.
Nix has been a mixed bag as a scorer. While capable of bullying smaller guards en route to the rim, he is just an average finisher at this stage. Nix plays exclusively below the rim, relies heavily on floaters, runners and other touch shots in traffic, leading to mixed results (45% on 2s).
Nix's jump shot is undoubtedly his swing skill at the NBA level. G League teams don't think twice about going under ball screens, and Nix has struggled badly to punish them for doing so, hitting just 3-of-17 of the pull-up jumpers he has attempted in the bubble thus far, per Synergy Sports Technology. The fact that he's capable of making 3-pointers with his feet set does give him some flexibility in operating off the ball, but until he develops some semblance of a pull-up game -- at least operating in midrange spots -- it's going to be difficult to fully unlock his playmaking ability because he's not any kind of jet with the ball.
Nix's defense will also play a significant factor in how quickly he's able to carve out a niche at the NBA level. The results have been highly inconsistent so far, as Nix has struggled badly to stay in front of quicker guards in open spaces, not demonstrating the foot speed to avoid getting blown by off the dribble and forcing his teammates to scramble in rotation constantly. Getting in better shape should help, but playing with a higher intensity level will be imperative as well.
Nix is too often caught standing straight up out of a stance off the ball, wanting to gamble in the passing lanes instead. Nix's excellent reaction speed and overall terrific instincts -- as evidenced by his phenomenal rebounding numbers -- indicate there's some potential to improve as his technique, experience and effort evolves, but it's going to take patience and development to get to the point that he's not a negative on this end of the floor.
Perhaps more than any of the other Ignite prospects, Nix has a lot to gain from a strong finish to the G League season, and then a productive pre-draft process answering questions about his body type and approach to the game. His draft stock is all over the map depending on which NBA executive you ask, with some feeling he's comfortably showing he's worthy of a first-round selection and others seeing him as more of a second-round flier.
Isaiah Todd: From afterthought to first-rounder?
Todd has helped himself as much as any player in the bubble so far. After entering the G League season projected to go undrafted, he has dropped enough glimpses of potential that some executives are openly considering his candidacy as a first-round pick.
There aren't many big men in the G League who have shown better perimeter shooting ability than the 6-foot-10 Todd has thus far, hitting 39% of his 3-point attempts. He has picture-perfect mechanics both with his feet set and even off movement -- Todd can pull up off the dribble or come off a screen (mostly midrange curls) in small doses. There's a theoretical quality to Todd's game that doesn't fully translate to game settings just yet, but watching him in warm-ups or drill situations reveals a very high skill level that could potentially be honed into a real weapon over time.
For as interesting as Todd's shooting stroke is, he's a fairly limited offensive player at this time, as evidenced by his poor 40% 2-point percentage, and the fact that he has dished out just 3 assists in 202 minutes of action thus far, ranking dead last among all players in assist percentage in the ESPN top-100 prospect rankings. It's difficult to find many power forwards in the NBA who have such limited ability to make decisions on the fly and make plays out of simple actions -- this is by far the biggest thing he'll have to work on. Patterning his game on NBA players such as JaMychal Green and Bobby Portis will likely represent Todd's best path to success.
Defensively, Todd has unquestionably been the Ignite's hardest-working player so far. He's blessed with outstanding mobility that allows him to cover ground seamlessly on closeouts, get back in transition to challenge shots at the rim and even sit down in a stance and slide his feet against smaller players on switches much more effectively than you'd expect.
Todd isn't much of a playmaker on the defensive end, averaging a paltry 7.5 rebounds, 0.6 steals and 0.8 blocks per 40 minutes, which underscores his lack of length (7-foot-1 wingspan) and the fact that the game simply moves too fast for him at this stage -- something that has long been considered his biggest weakness. While he plays hard, he's not a very physical big man on top of that, partially due to his slender frame. While theoretically you'd like to see a big man his size slide up to the center position at times in smaller, stretchier lineups, there are real question marks about whether Todd's frame and lack of defensive rebounding will allow him to do so, which renders him less versatile than most teams want to see from a modern big man.
Many eyebrows were raised around the basketball industry when Todd opted to forgo a scholarship at Michigan for the G League Ignite program, but that decision appears to be paying off in a major way thus far. It's unclear what kind of role he would have had for a stacked Michigan frontcourt, or how well his style of play would have fit into its offense. There's no question that the uptempo style of play of the G League suits his game better, helping Todd solidify his standing as a potential draft pick, and possibly even as a first-round pick depending on how the rest of his season and the pre-draft process goes.
Looking ahead to the 2022 Ignite squad
With the G League Ignite program looking like a resounding success for both prospects and the NBA at these early stages, many around the industry are wondering what next season could bring. Will the league be able to shell out huge contracts to another crop of Ignite players?
Sources say the G League is being very aggressive approaching top recruits, including those who are committed to schools. Top-10 recruits Jaden Hardy and Michael Foster are considered G League "leans" right now, and a significant push to land potential 2022 No. 1 pick Chet Holmgren is underway as well. Five-star big man Efton Reid, who is in the midst of a postgraduate year at IMG Academy and is draft eligible in 2021, is another possibility for the G League if he doesn't like what he's hearing from the NBA regarding his draft prospects this spring and summer.
The big wild card is the potential progress the NCAA makes with name, image and likeness legislation. For example, Gonzaga's ability to counter a lucrative offer to Holmgren from the G League could hinge on his ability to cash in on NIL as a collegian. Would the new legislation allow Holmgren to land a sneaker deal while in college? Other endorsement opportunities? Unfortunately for college basketball fans, the snail's pace at which this legislation is moving along might end up making this a moot point.
The G League will surely want to find ways to make their program financially viable as well. Major sponsorship opportunities for naming rights, as well as trips abroad for barnstorming tours to places like the Philippines, never became a serious option due to the pandemic, sources say. The NBA surely will want to see a return on their investment at some point, which could begin to happen as early as next season if the right pieces are in place.
With an $8.8 billion dollar television contract for the NCAA tournament locked in until 2032, the NCAA likely won't feel much of a threat if Ignite continues to take only a handful of top prospects every year, something it openly encouraged the NBA to do via the Rice Commission recommendations.
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- Jul 8, 2013
Cade seems like the safest pick but all of the top guys to me are around the same tier.
Cade
Suggs
Mobley
Kuminga
Green
Cade
Suggs
Mobley
Kuminga
Green
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- Apr 5, 2017
I need for the T-Wolves to keep their pick this year...and suck again...so that the Warriors can draft the heir apparent in Hardy.
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- Sep 5, 2010
Hardy gave me Beal vibes when I watched him play a few months ago.
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- Apr 5, 2017
I can see it. Same elite shotmaking ability that you know will translate from prep to the next level.
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- Jul 13, 2005
Does anyone remember if CP3 was considered a “safe pick” when drafted? I’m pretty sure Dame was.
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- Sep 18, 2003
there was some risk with dame being a mid major guard
