[h2]If Warriors are waiting out the F/A storm… who'll be left for them?[/h2]
Posted by
Tim Kawakami on July 2nd, 2009 at 1:16 pm | Categorized as
NBA,
Warriors
So the Warriors' pursuit of Amare Stoudemire is on the back-back-backburner/nearly dead and Chris Bosh is not on the market and Hedo Turkoglu was never an option and Charlie Villanueva was gobbled up by Detroit.
What's next for a poor, gritty, conspired-against 29-53 team, yearning to vault itself back into relevancy and build around Anthony Randolph, Stephen Jackson, Stephen Curry and Anthony Morrow?
By all appearances, Warriors GM Larry Riley and Kahuna Don Nelson are going to wait it out a bit, see how many teams over-spend during the irrational exhuberance of July 1-2-3-4-5, then maybe pounce on an under-valued leftovers, preferably a shooting big man but maybe also another wing or two.
There's some logic to that: Let the antsy teams destroy their cap situations by bidding against themselves for Villanueva, Ben Gordon, Turkoglu, Trevor Ariza, Marcin Gortat and David Lee.
The Warriors aren't one player away from title contention. They're already committed to large money-Jackson, Andris Biedrins, Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette-and don't need to keep adding it every year just to sign another non-difference-maker.
If a Paul Millsap or a Brandon Bass or a Marvin Williams should slip through the cracks the first week of free agency… the Warriors could try to swoop in with a decent-but-not-crazy offer and see what happens.
But the waiting-it-out-for-smarter-deals scenario also could be just an over-optimistic spin on the potential much tougher two-toned reality:
* The players who are getting signed now, as the Warriors sit and groan at the asking prices, are the players who can make a difference. That's why they're in high demand. Now. Not in a week.
If you sit out of the high-demand period, you aren't involved with the best players.
* The best players always have options-even in tough economic times and with teams bidding themselves to the luxury-tax line-and players who have options will not and do not generally consider the Warriors a likely destination.
If you're restricted F/A Millsap, for instance, and the offers are about the same, would you rather join Nelson's ragged crew or end up playing next to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in OKC or lining up with Deron Williams in Salt Lake for years and years?
(To further put the kibosh on Millsap-to-the-Warriors: If you're Utah, you'd just probably match anything offered up to the mid-level exception, which is the most the Warriors can offer, anyway.)
Riley and Nelson may not like it, but already know this, probably, from their dabblings with Stoudemire, who would much rather sign a long-term deal with the Suns than consider such a concept with the Warriors.
Which is why the Warriors may be not be sitting out the frenzy by choice. They probably just can't get in with the VIllanueva/Millsap/Ron Artest/Lee class of player if they wanted to.
After blowing their post-Baron cap room on Corey Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike and Ronny Turiaf last season (and not successfully trading Al Harrington for an expiring contract), the Warriors are over the salary cap and can offer no more than the MLE (starting at about $5.8M) to any free agent.
That's the same as any other over-the-cap team, like the Lakers, Cavaliers, Magic… you know, winning teams that don't have reputations for going to war with their best players and haphazardly hazing young players.
Let's take a run through some of the free agents and maybe even trade-eligible players who might be of interest to the Warriors over the next few days or weeks…
*
Utah RFA Paul Millsap: Young, rough, versatile scorer and proven rebounder. Yeah, he'd fit on the Warriors, as he would anywhere. MLE for five years would not be an over-payment. Which everybody in the league knows.
Carlos Boozer's opt-in with Utah muddied up the Jazz's situation-they're probably still set on matching any Millsap offer, but now they've got to be careful of the price. OKC could go nuts here, if that fits the Thunder plans.
-Warriors' likelihood: Low.
*
Utah PF Carlos Boozer, via trade: Opted-in for $17.7M, but will now be a UFA next summer and may want out, especially if Millsap is the anointed PF. Problem for the Warriors or anybody: You'd have to hammer out an extension with Boozer before trading for him, and he's a notorious money-grabber. Also, Jazz would start by asking for Anthony Randolph, and if the Warriors even contemplate that, they'd have to weigh Boozer's injury problems.
-Warriors' likelihood: Very low.
*
NY Knicks RFA David Lee: A young running PF, but a non-shooter, so he's not a Nelson-style player and duplicative of Biedrins and Randolph. Lee's chances of an above-MLE offer were damaged by Memphis' idiotic cap-eating acquisition of Zach Randolph, but somebody with room will probably try to toss him a long-term offer.
-Warriors' likelihood: Very low.
*
Dallas UFA Brandon Bass: A lesser version of Millsap and a potential over-value for the MLE. He'd fit in Warriors system, but Bass is no difference-maker. He's also on the radar of New Orleans and Orlando.
-Warriors' likelihood: Not high, but rises if Orlando and NO go in different directions. Warriors would have to over-pay, in a Maggette-like scenario.
*
Toronto UFA Shawn Marion: Interesting candidate-he's 31, so has some prime years left, he can rebound and run, and he may miss out on the big-money whirlwind. So Marion would be a tremendous two- or three-year MLE pick-up for a winner. But maybe not so easy for a losing team that does not value defense, that wants a playmaker, and that has a chilly relationship with his agent, Dan Fegan.
-Warriors' likehood: Possible only if Marion gets desperate, which isn't the best situation for either side.
*
Cleveland UFA Anderson Varejao: Non-shooting defensive-minded PF, represented by Fegan. In other words: Not exactly your perfect Warriors candidate.
-Warriors' likelihood: None.
*
Lakers' UFA Lamar Odom: Who wouldn't want this guy if the price is right? That, of course, is the issue for the Warriors, who love Odom but can only offer him the MLE, and he'll get more than that from the Lakers, who win titles. The Warriors could try a sign-and-trade, which would pay Odom more, but why would the Lakers do that?
-Warriors' likelihood: Very low.
*
Denver RFA Linas Kleiza: Deep-shooting combo F, would work nicely in Warriors' system, certainly not as a game-changer, however. Probably won't be leaving Denver unless there's some serious money issues-say, if the Nuggets have to pay Chris Andersen more than they expected or if they have a sudden shot at Ron Artest.
*
Houston UFA Ron Artest: Not a big man, not a great character role model for the young players, but yes, definitely a potential game-changer. He's a defensive game-changer, however, and that's never a big emphasis for Nelson.
Plus Artest plays the same position as SJax/Azubuike/Maggette. Plus-plus Artest is openly chasing a title-whether it's in Cleveland, LA or staying in Houston.
(By the way, I cannot see any team taking Maggette's contract-4 more years, $39.7M-in order to facilitate a trade with the Warriors, unless the Warriors are getting back an even worse contract. And there aren't many worse contracts out there. Hello, Baron Davis and Elton Brand!)
*
Atlanta RFA Marvin Williams: Interesting scoring tall forward, so that fits with Nelson. But he's not a decision-maker or much of a rebounder-basically a young Al Harrington, and we saw how that worked out. Hawks will probably match anything up to the MLE, anyway.
*
Boston UFA Leon Powe: Good guy, Cal guy, hurt guy. Definitely not a difference-maker, not a Nelson-style big man and probably won't be healthy until February at the earliest.
For the Warriors, maybe as a late-July fan-pleasing afterthought, with an eye towards 2010-2011. But the Warriors, who have a roster already loaded with not-quite-good-enough players, can't sign another one and wait a year.
*
Portland UFA Channing Frye: Decent shooting C/PF, so Nelson could be semi-interested. Certainly could be had cheap. A back-up, nothing more. Possible for W's.
*
Detroit UFA Rasheed Wallace: No.
*
Detroit UFA Antonio McDyess: No.
*
Miami RFA Jamario Moon: Springy, shooting tall forward. I guess a possibility.
*
Boston RFA Glen Davis: Thick decent-shooting PF. Over-pay possibility for a few teams. Should stay with Celtics.
*
Indiana UFA Marquis Daniels: Proven Nelson-style player. A wing, of course. Not worth the MLE, especially for a team that has many, many wings. But a possibility for the Warriors.
*
Milwaukee RFA Ramon Sessions: Scoring lead guard, just like Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry. No. Unless Nelson/Riley are trading Ellis.
*
Atlanta RFA Josh Childress: Played in Greece last season, but talking about returning to the NBA, particularly with Milwaukee. A wing. Defensive-minded poor-shooter. So not likely for the Warriors, I'd think.
*
Sacramento UFA Ike Diogu: Gotta give Hollinger credit-he supported the Ikester in '06 with zero to show for it, and he's still listing Diogu as a good bargain-pick this year with even less to show for it. And I'm chuckling the whole way. That's one thing Nelson and I will ALWAYS agree about. See, there is one thing.
*
NY Knicks UFA Chris Wilcox, Memphis UFA Hakim Warrick, Phoenix UFA Stromile Swift: Bleah.
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