Mavericks vs. Thunder: What to watch
We don’t have the Lakers, Spurs or the upstart Grizzlies, but we do get an aging and (in some circles) under-appreciated superstar gunning for another chance at a title against the league’s scoring champion, Kevin Durant, who also happens to be perhaps the closest thing to Dirk Nowitzki that American basketball has ever produced. We get to watch a passing-oriented club that
assisted on a higher percentage of its baskets than any other team against an opponent that ranked just 24th in assist rate, in part because of its ridiculous talent and young legs. We get a team that might be ahead of schedule against one that wasn’t on the schedule at all six months ago.
In a series full of enough subplots to fill two previews, here are some key storylines to watch:
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Who will guard Durant?
This is single biggest issue in the series, and the lack of a perfect answer for Dallas is grounds enough to lean toward a Thunder win. Durant averaged 29 points per game on 52 percent shooting in three games against Dallas. The first name to pop into your head might be Shawn Marion, but the Mavs’ starting small forward was not Dallas’ preferred option on Durant in the regular season; Marion defended Durant on only nine of the 48 shot attempts Durant took in the half-court,
according to Synergy Sports, which catalogs video of every shot.
Marion was not quite quick enough to keep up with Durant off the dribble or when chasing him around screens. Still, Marion brings a quality mix of speed and strength, and he’ll get his chances against Durant.
The bulk of the assignment actually went to DeShawn Stevenson, who held Durant to 8-of-20 shooting in half-court situations, per Synergy. This is obviously not ideal for Dallas as Stevenson is a bit player, and the Mavs’ offense functions best when he is on the bench. Stevenson also gives up about five inches in height, and Durant was very comfortable shooting over Stevenson and posting him up. The Mavs often send aggressive help when Durant took Stevenson to the block, and they’ll have to do so in this series.
But who else is there? Jason Kidd was on Russell Westbrook duty in all three matchups, and don’t even mention Peja Stojakovic or Jason Terry. It’s tempting to think about Corey Brewer, a rangy defender nearly as tall as Durant and a capable spot-up three-point shooter if he’s wide open. But Brewer has played a total of 18 minutes so far in the playoffs, and if he’s cold from the outside, he’s just as much a downgrade on offense as Stevenson. Even so, this could be Brewer’s chance to start earning his money in Dallas.
There is no good answer here – there never is with Durant – but the options are especially unappealing for Dallas, unless Marion can turn back time about five years. Dallas will send a lot of help in Durant’s direction, and if it can manage to do that in a way that frees up Oklahoma City’s less-accomplished offensive players (its big men), it might be able to overload on Durant without getting burned. Expect Tyson Chandler, one of the league’s great defenders, to rove and jump out on Durant as Marc Gasol did in the conference semis. Gasol isn’t a great defender, but his movement — and the struggles of his mark, Kendrick Perkins — was often enough to blow up the Thunder’s primary option. The Thunder didn’t have the patience or creativity to adapt — until Game 7, when they executed at another level.
Regardless, Dallas’ defense is in for a unique challenge, one that could hamstring their rotations.
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The backcourt battle
James Harden doesn’t start, but he and Westbrook form the Thunder’s crunch-time backcourt, and they represent the most dynamic two-man backcourt the Mavs have faced in the playoffs. There will be no one like Derek Fisher playing 35 minutes a game in this series.
Kidd’s old-man legs have no chance against Westbrook, right? Maybe. But the Mavs held Westbrook to 14-of-44 shooting (32 percent) from the floor in the regular season, and they did so with Kidd defending Westbrook and going under nearly every pick, daring Westbrook to hit mid-range shots. Kidd obviously can’t contain Westbrook off the dribble, but if he sags back and gets help, the Mavs might be able to at least keep Westbrook away from the rim and in the trickier floater range.
The Blazers successfully bullied Terry for stretches of their first-round series with Dallas, but the Lakers really didn’t have the personnel to do so in the second round. Harden isn’t a back-to-the-basket threat like Brandon Roy, Andre Miller or Nicolas Batum, but he’s strong and quick, and he should be able to take Terry off the dribble. But Terry always seems to get it back — and more — on the other end, and Harden loves to rove off his man on defense. The Grizzlies couldn’t hurt him that way, but Terry can.
The talent level of these two guards will present problems for Dallas, and the longer the Harden-Westbrook duo plays, the harder it will be for Rick Carlisle to find extended minutes for J.J. Barea — unless, of course, Barea gets it back on the other end via his beautiful two-man game with Nowitzki. That’s the thing about Dallas: It always seems at a disadvantage in the backcourt, but its system is so sound on both ends that it often comes out ahead anyway.
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The time for zone?
Dallas has played less matchup zone in the playoffs than it did in the regular season, but Carlisle might be ready to unleash it here for longer stretches. The zone could take the sting out of the individual matchup disadvantages Dallas faces, and the Mavs are smart about keeping defenders close to an opponent’s best three-point shooters even when they zone up. The Mavs played zone a bit more often than normal against the Thunder, and Durant shot just 2-of-8 against it, according to Synergy. (Hat tip:
Sebastian Pruiti).
The zone comes with its risks: open three-pointers for Durant and Harden, and offensive rebounding chances for Westbrook and the Thunder’s active frontline. But it presents a way for Dallas to survive defensively, especially when Barea and Terry are on the court.
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Who will guard Dirk?
Jeff Green got most of this horrid assignment, but he’s gone, and that leaves Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison to deal with the MVP of the playoffs so far. Ibaka played just 13 minutes in Game 7 against the Grizzlies, and he has not been quite right since injuring his knee in Game 2 of that series. Collison might be a better matchup for Nowitzki anyway, since Ibaka is prone to biting on pump fakes — a Dirk speciality.
But as we saw against the Blazers and Lakers, it’s not so much about who guards Dirk as it is about how your entire team handles pick-and-rolls where he acts as the screener. The Thunder haven’t been as switch-happy since the Green/Kendrick Perkins trade, but they still fall into that habit now and then, and Nowitzki will kill them if they switch guards onto him.
The other options aren’t appetizing, either. If you tell Nowitzki’s man to stay attached to him, you risk having Barea and Terry turn the corner and get into the paint at will — the very thing that killed the Lakers. If you ask Nowitzki’s man to jump off of him for just a second to contain the ball-handler, you’ve given Dirk all the space he needs to pop out for a jumper or roll into open territory.
Either option requires sending help, and Dallas smoked the Lakers by spreading the floor with shooters, watching the defense react and finding the open man. This is where the Durant factor looms large. If Durant’s presence means Dallas must have the Kidd/Stevenson, Kidd/Brewer or Kidd/Marion duos on the court more often, the Mavs won’t have the same level of shooting on the floor they’ve been able to use so far in the playoffs — and especially against the Lakers, when they appeared impossible to guard.
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Keep the Thunder off the line
Only one team shot more free throws, per field-goal attempt, than the Thunder, and Oklahoma City’s ability to get to the line might be the single most important component of its offense. On the flip side, only two teams allowed fewer free throws per shot attempt than the Mavs, who make you earn your points.
The Mavs won this battle in the regular season, and winning it again now would be a huge step toward the Finals. Dallas held the Thunder to 24 free throw attempts per game, five below Oklahoma City’s average, and that trend was not the result of the teams playing at a slower than normal pace.
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Stop the Thunder’s transition game
The Thunder are among the league’s most lethal fast-break teams (one version of Synergy ranks them No. 1 in points per possession on transition chances; another has them No. 4), and they hurt Memphis by running off both misses and turnovers. Westbrook is a menace on the break, and in the late stages of the Memphis series, he made the kinds of smart kick-out passes to Durant and Harden in transition he needs to make if he’s going to develop into an even better player.
The Mavs have to be careful here. They ranked in the bottom third of the league in points per possession allowed in transition, and they were surprisingly turnover-prone in the regular season. They’ve cleaned up the turnover issue a bit in the postseason, and they don’t crash the offensive glass much, meaning they aren’t going to compromise their transition defense by chasing offensive boards. The Thunder scored even more efficiently than normal in two of their three regular-season games against Dallas, and the Mavs will be in trouble if that trend repeats itself.
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PREDICTION: The Thunder present some very difficult matchup problems for the league’s oldest team, but the Mavs have been using smart basketball and a sound system to make up for their lack of explosiveness all season. No team is more comfortable in its own skin. No group of players is more certain of what they want to do and how they will do it on every possession. If the Mavs can take away the easy points — the free throws and fast-break chances — they can win this series. They can do that, and they’ll close on the road again.
Mavs in six.
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