***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[IATT]

Seems like a smart thing to do when it comes to polling.

I mean he's pretty consistently been the best election forecaster.


You can not like his political hot takes, but you can't front on his model.

it’s not hard to google the many things he has been wrong about

And like way too many white men who have been called out for being wrong and get defensive, that seems to have led to some of “his political hot takes”

Let’s call it pulling a joe rogan or an Aaron Rodgers

 

[nonnative]

I generally avoid hyperbole but I really can't see this as anything but the end.

As they say, the devil is in the details and in this case, the detail that really seals the deal is the simple but very measured maneuver by the SC to avoid specifying what an 'official act' is and isn't.

So what does that mean? That means that the president is free to do whatever they want with their new immunity but all it takes is a lawsuit and a couple appeals and guess who gets to decide what is an 'official act' and therefore legal? The SC itself.

They've setup the executive to be a tyrant but they hold the keys to unchecked power. That's why they don't even care that they've given Joe immunity. They know Joe won't do anything crazy but even if he did, they'd check his power when whatever he does inevitably makes it to their court.

And unless there's a big change in the makeup of the SC, this isn't even a Trump problem. The next time a repub takes the white house with a repub court (I refuse to call them conservative), that'll be the end for US democracy because they're all taking notes from Trump on what you can get away with.

The only way to put this off at least for our lifetimes is if Joe wins and really does get 2 appointments.

That's why everyone has to vote and Joe has to win.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

it’s not hard to google the many things he has been wrong about

And like way too many white men who have been called out for being wrong and get defensive, that seems to have led to some of “his political hot takes”

Let’s call it pulling a joe rogan or an Aaron Rodgers

.yes there are very stupid people on the internet who don't understand probabilities, who likr to pretend like Nate Silver's election model is bad


The problem is it's not true. He's been the best forecaster.

You just don't like his takes on politics. Which is fine.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Wanna see a dead body?

Marc Lamont Hill getting receipts pulled for his Jill Stein support. You love to see it.

 

[RustyShackleford]

.yes there are very stupid people on the internet who don't understand probabilities, who likr to pretend like Nate Silver's election model is bad


The problem is it's not true. He's been the best forecaster.

You just don't like his takes on politics. Which is fine.

Dude I sorry but I your defenses of Silver ignore the fact that Silver plays dumb too and he relies on people lack of knowledge of probability as a "get out of jail, everyone is an idiot's card except me" card.

He runs his model, he then writes tons of articles about what the model is showing, hedging that is going to happen. If it does, he takes a victory lap. If it doesn't, he calls people stupid for not understanding probability.

Nate Silver is a self aggrandizing internet brain rot having ******* with a temper. Maybe he should be better on how he discusses his model.

Because most people interaction with him is not reading his long form work or his lectures. It is his hot head tweets and his mainstream media appearances.

 

[RustyShackleford]

As someone that as constructed and ran his share of Econometric models (albeit no where as complex as Silver's election model) I wouldn't talk about my work the way Silver talks about his sometimes.

His own lack of professionalism helps drives
the backlash he swears he can't stand.

 

[RustyShackleford]

And someone not understanding probability, that by itself, doesn't make anyone stupid

That is a stupid thing to say

 

[IATT]

You just don't like his takes on politics. Which is fine.

I don’t pay enough attention to Nate silver’s politics to know or care

When I did pay attention to Nate silver to a very small degree, my expectations were the math and that is not what I was getting, so I stopped caring on the whole especially when his math was wrong several times in succession

If I want entertainment with math, I’ll just watch moneyball

 

[aepps20]

ninjahood what's your statistical model say about making da Vegas and Canada trips?

 

[aepps20]

I will say Nathan's model was more predictive when polling was more accurate and his model filtered out less reputable polls. Just looking through the cross tabs on some of these polls it's clear the old adage garbage in and garbage out is more true than ever. I still insist that Nate and many others massively overcorrected since 2016 and we haven't had solid polling ever since

 

[IATT]

I will say Nathan's model was more predictive when polling was more accurate and his model filtered out less reputable polls. Just looking through the cross tabs on some of these polls it's clear the old adage garbage in and garbage out is more true than ever. I still insist that Nate and many others massively overcorrected since 2016 and we haven't had solid polling ever since

Polling on the whole is broken because of the mechanism itself and it’s unrealistic to think in current times you’ll get a true representation of the electorate

That’s why I’d argue now more than ever your ground game is extremely important, as far as candidates themselves go

But pollsters got a business model and news networks still haven’t shifted.. but they also don’t do their homework when it comes time for focus groups after town halls and/or debates

I’d argue doing legit ongoing studies of the numbers would be your best indicators instead of the majority of this BS.. look at the various results since 2016 and look at the shifts various, keeping in mind the numbers/locations needed to actually succeed and then you can look at the actual results of the primaries.. there is a a lot of information that is readily available

And I don’t fault silver for being wrong in 2016 given an investigation was announced last minute.. but that don’t excuse other mistakes and as RustyShackleford mentioned dude comes off as a know it all and that only works when you’re wrong in exceptional circumstances

 

[atlsfinest]

Wanna see a dead body?

Marc Lamont Hill getting receipts pulled for his Jill Stein support. You love to see it.

They really caught him lying when there is literal video footage of him saying these exact words. People act like 2016 didn't happen.

"Morally I can't vote for Hillary, I'm not voting at all"

"I'd rather Trump win than Hillary"

"I'm voting for Jill Stein"

Conservatives, for all of their flaws, play the game a lot better. Liberals and leftists envision their perfect candidate and if the current slate of candidates doesn't fit that ideal then they will either not vote or vote third party.

Conservatives will vote in mass murders if those mass murderers will pass the legislation they want and the point that judges they want.

It's incredible how many liberals have The mindset of "let the Republicans win to teach the Democrats a lesson". Republicans would never have to foolish mindset.

 

[Cashflow]

Democrats need to stop trying to take the moral high ground. Play from the same playbook and run it up.

 

[Rootin4EverybodyBlack]

Wanna see a dead body?

Marc Lamont Hill getting receipts pulled for his Jill Stein support. You love to see it.

Glad somebody finally called him out because I absolutely remember him saying that on a breakfast club interview. The context doesn’t change anything.

 

[IATT]

They really caught him lying when there is literal video footage of him saying these exact words. People act like 2016 didn't happen.

"Morally I can't vote for Hillary, I'm not voting at all"

"I'd rather Trump win than Hillary"

"I'm voting for Jill Stein"

Conservatives, for all of their flaws, play the game a lot better. Liberals and leftists envision their perfect candidate and if the current slate of candidates doesn't fit that ideal then they will either not vote or vote third party.

Conservatives will vote in mass murders if those mass murderers will pass the legislation they want and the point that judges they want.

Liberals have strong "I'm not getting what I want so I will take my ball and go home" energy.

 

[IATT]

Speaking of joe rogan and Aaron Rodgers..

 

[Wargames]

Hillary Clinton was talking a lot of BS during her campaign but on several occasions she highlighted just how important the election was because she foresaw 2-3 supreme Court Justice openings. I know a lot of liberals thought they were accomplishing something by not voting for Hillary. Welp...

One of my best friends was a Bernie bro. He regrets it. Deep down they all regret it or there a step away from being a libertarian at this point.

Things like this still makes me think the rumors that he was sick during the debate might be true. We see him all the time and that was the worst time yet.

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

Glad somebody finally called him out because I absolutely remember him saying that on a breakfast club interview. The context doesn’t change anything.

Don’t forget this guy

 

[IATT]

 

[Platinum State]

One of my best friends was a Bernie bro. He regrets it. Deep down they all regret it or there a step away from being a libertarian at this point.

Things like this still makes me think the rumors that he was sick during the debate might be true. We see him all the time and that was the worst time yet.

Definitely looked and sounded at least 10 years younger here

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Dude I sorry but I your defenses of Silver ignore the fact that Silver plays dumb too and he relies on people lack of knowledge of probability as a "get out of jail, everyone is an idiot's card except me" card.

He runs his model, he then writes tons of articles about what the model is showing, hedging that is going to happen. If it does, he takes a victory lap. If it doesn't, he calls people stupid for not understanding probability.

Nate Silver is a self aggrandizing internet brain rot having ******* with a temper. Maybe he should be better on how he discusses his model.

Because most people interaction with him is not reading his long form work or his lectures. It is his hot head tweets and his mainstream media appearances.

sure that's fine, if someone said man i hate Nate Slivers hot takes I wouldn't say anything.


but people if you say Nate Silver is wrong about xyz, or he was wrong about hillary or biden or whatever.
im going to say that's not true. im not defending his personal character or personality. just the model.

 

[sonoftony]

Wanna see a dead body?

Marc Lamont Hill getting receipts pulled for his Jill Stein support. You love to see it.

Thanks for posting this bc Chris Evans b*tch *** blocked me

 

[RustyShackleford]

Polling on the whole is broken because of the mechanism itself and it’s unrealistic to think in current times you’ll get a true representation of the electorate

That’s why I’d argue now more than ever your ground game is extremely important, as far as candidates themselves go

But pollsters got a business model and news networks still haven’t shifted.. but they also don’t do their homework when it comes time for focus groups after town halls and/or debates

I’d argue doing legit ongoing studies of the numbers would be your best indicators instead of the majority of this BS.. look at the various results since 2016 and look at the shifts various, keeping in mind the numbers/locations needed to actually succeed and then you can look at the actual results of the primaries.. there is a a lot of information that is readily available

And I don’t fault silver for being wrong in 2016 given an investigation was announced last minute.. but that don’t excuse other mistakes and as RustyShackleford mentioned dude comes off as a know it all and that only works when you’re wrong in exceptional circumstances

Dude I think polling has its place, but it has its clear shortcomings. It shouldn't be dismissed.

And Nate Silver's model is solid for what it is, and probably the best one in the business

I just think Silver a massive jackass, and that if he behaved differently people would not get nearly as much backlash as he gets.

 

[RustyShackleford]

I can't put into words how much I dislike this woman