***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[Nike Jordan]

 

[dmbrhs]

JD gonna get washed in the debate.

 

[essential1]

They are doing great work.

 

[Nike Jordan]

 

[osh kosh bosh]

It's amazing that everything conservatives accuse the media of doing,
They are doing the same thing but like 100000x worse.


They freaked out for years about progressive partisan influence over social media moderation.
...Elon buys twitter that and explitley spits out and promotes conservative propaganda.

They accuse the media of being "the enemy of the people"
...meanwhile prominent conservative commentators are just straight up being paid by the russian government to destabilize American society.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

somehow this is Kamalas fault.

 

[essential1]

Tim Pool been clutching onto his emergency skully all day.

 

[Rootin4EverybodyBlack]

It's amazing that everything conservatives accuse the media of doing,
They are doing the same thing but like 100000x worse.


They freaked out for years about progressive partisan influence over social media moderation.
...Elon buys twitter that and explitley spits out and promotes conservative propaganda.

They accuse the media of being "the enemy of the people"
...meanwhile prominent conservative commentators are just straight up being paid by the russian government to destabilize American society.

All they do is project because they have zero policy proposals that’ll help people.

Secretly they know the jig is up, at least on a national scale, but they’re in too deep at this point. When you listen to some of them speak it’s obvious they don’t even fully believe the nonsense they be saying

 

[swendro]

 

[Public Enemy]

 

[aepps20]

somehow this is Kamalas fault.

Glad certain Nters are on da come up

 

[Frankie Blue]

 

[Public Enemy]

 

[essential1]

Having watch Silver all cycle. Including the last when he was unbearable.

1 of 2 things are going on, hell maybe both.
1. Peter Thiel has put the squeeze onto Nate.
2. Nate is trying to twist his model as much as possible to make it look as close as possible because if it’s like 55-45 Trump odds, and Kamala wins he can do the same thing he did in 2016 “I gave Trump a 28% chance; see I told you it could happen.”
And if Trump wins he can say, I called it.

Here is why.

Trump couldn’t capture 47% in 2016 or 2020. But somehow when he runs his model 10,000 times… Trump gets to 50% or better 3,170 times.
He’s like 10x or better what the true odds of something like that is.

I love analytics. But in 3 election cycles, I watched Nate Silver create a methodology that is essentially data noise personified.

Going to get a “Hey I was right” because if I was wrong I said it was a 55% chance of happening which leaves 45% chance of the opposite result.

 

[Cashflow]

 

[Cashflow]

 

[jshortt]

It's amazing that everything conservatives accuse the media of doing,
They are doing the same thing but like 100000x worse.


They freaked out for years about progressive partisan influence over social media moderation.
...Elon buys twitter that and explitley spits out and promotes conservative propaganda.

They accuse the media of being "the enemy of the people"
...meanwhile prominent conservative commentators are just straight up being paid by the russian government to destabilize American society.

Let's not forget accusing teachers of "indoctrinating" kids, while trying to force religion into classes and the 10 commandments into PUBLIC schools.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

damn i didn't know he was this deep in on the russian propaganda.

the end is just *chefs kiss

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

 

[Betonblck]

Having watch Silver all cycle. Including the last when he was unbearable.

1 of 2 things are going on, hell maybe both.
1. Peter Thiel has put the squeeze onto Nate.
2. Nate is trying to twist his model as much as possible to make it look as close as possible because if it’s like 55-45 Trump odds, and Kamala wins he can do the same thing he did in 2016 “I gave Trump a 28% chance; see I told you it could happen.”
And if Trump wins he can say, I called it.

Here is why.

Trump couldn’t capture 47% in 2016 or 2020. But somehow when he runs his model 10,000 times… Trump gets to 50% or better 3,170 times.
He’s like 10x or better what the true odds of something like that is.

I love analytics. But in 3 election cycles, I watched Nate Silver create a methodology that is essentially data noise personified.

Going to get a “Hey I was right” because if I was wrong I said it was a 55% chance of happening which leaves 45% chance of the opposite result.

He has Trump with 40% chance of winning the popular vote?

 

[Sharpshoeter13]

damn i didn't know he was this deep in on the russian propaganda.

the end is just *chefs kiss

He’s fuming in his шапочка

Spoiler

beanie

 

[IATT]

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Having watch Silver all cycle. Including the last when he was unbearable.

1 of 2 things are going on, hell maybe both.
1. Peter Thiel has put the squeeze onto Nate.
2. Nate is trying to twist his model as much as possible to make it look as close as possible because if it’s like 55-45 Trump odds, and Kamala wins he can do the same thing he did in 2016 “I gave Trump a 28% chance; see I told you it could happen.”
And if Trump wins he can say, I called it.

Here is why.

Trump couldn’t capture 47% in 2016 or 2020. But somehow when he runs his model 10,000 times… Trump gets to 50% or better 3,170 times.
He’s like 10x or better what the true odds of something like that is.

I love analytics. But in 3 election cycles, I watched Nate Silver create a methodology that is essentially data noise personified.

Going to get a “Hey I was right” because if I was wrong I said it was a 55% chance of happening which leaves 45% chance of the opposite result.

He had Biden as a 75% favorite in 2020, had Obama as a 70+ favorite in 2012, had hilary at 63%
but somehow he's manipulating his model so it's always 55%?

and you think this because in 30% of outcome Trump gets 50% of the vote?
47 is perfectly plausible...but 50.000001% Nate MUST be manipulating his model?

Trump got 47 despite getting handling COVID horribly.
No covid, Kamala does bad in the debates? In that scenario it's impossible for Trump to get 50%?

AND Peter Thiel has given Nate enough money to torch his reputation...for what purpose exactly?


This is what I mean this feels like 2016 overconfidence


THE ELECTION IS CLOSE. KAMALA'S RECENT POLLS HAVEN'T BEEN THAT GOOD.
SHE'S WEAK IN PENNSYLVANIA, TRUMP IS POLLING BETTER WITH BLACK AND LATINO MEN.

TRUMP CAN WIN, YOU NEED TO COME TO TERMS WITH THIS.

 

[IATT]