***Official Political Discussion Thread***

Based on 538's polls plus, if you were to give each candidate the state if they have over 75% probability

It leaves ME (1 Local EV), NH, OH, NC, FL, IA, NE (1 Local EV), CO, NV

Clinton up 259 - 190 with 89 EV left.

And of those left, while Trump is doing well in OH with a 70% chance to win the state, Hillary has a 72% in Colorado

That puts you at 268-208. Trump would have to run the board in NC, FL, IA, NH, NV and win at least one of the 2 local EV between ME & NE

So Hilary needs to win one more state to win it all..

Somehow I don't feel reassured. All GS needed was one more win...and look who ended up becoming defending Champs :rolleyes
 
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Based on 538's polls plus, if you were to give each candidate the state if they have over 75% probability

It leaves ME (1 Local EV), NH, OH, NC, FL, IA, NE (1 Local EV), CO, NV

Clinton up 259 - 190 with 89 EV left.

And of those left, while Trump is doing well in OH with a 70% chance to win the state, Hillary has a 72% in Colorado

That puts you at 268-208. Trump would have to run the board in NC, FL, IA, NH, NV and win at least one of the 2 local EV between ME & NE

All GS needed was one more win...and look who ended up becoming defending Champs :rolleyes
between Cavs coming back, Cubs coming back, missed chip shot FGs, and NFL games ending in ties, anything is possible.

my only solace right now if trump wins is that i can spend the next 4 years blaming 50% of the population for all the ensuing problems this country will face.
 
Let's not forget that the forecasts are based on who voted, not how they did. As much as I like to pile on Republicans, many among them seem to realize that the cancer is within their own party, and we might be in for some surprises come election day.
 
How's this for a thesis:

WikiLeaks, which actually furthers the freedom and circulation of information, has become desecrated. Once trump latched on to WikiLeaks, it offered an occasion for Clinton and her acolytes to discredit what is essential to a healthy democracy. Now you can't engage with the WikiLeaks archive without being seen as in bed with trump.
Blame Julian.
 
1000
 
Sounds like early voting in NV and FL is leaning towards the Dems.  Record numbers in Clark County, NV. 
nerd.gif
 
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/trump-tower-goes-bust-canada-214412
On Tuesday, a Canadian bankruptcy judge placed the glass-and-granite building into receivership, just four years after Trump and his children cut the ribbon at its grand opening. Once it’s auctioned off, whether or not Trump is the leader of the free world by then, his name may well vanish from its marquee.
Trump is not the project’s developer or even an investor; one of his partners, a Russian-born billionaire who got rich in Ukraine’s steel industry, controls the firm that’s in default. The Trump Toronto is still a posh hotel, and even though nearly two thirds of the tower’s condo units remain unsold, they’re still upscale residences. Still, the saga of the property’s glittering rise and rapid fall is classic Trump, featuring a tsunami of litigation and bitterness, money with a Russian accent, and a financial wreck that probably won’t hit its namesake particularly hard.
 
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Can't stand this guy, but when you are right, you're right 
lol Bill's cool, love his show, smart guy, would love to see him Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert sit at a roundtable, discussing the stupidity we are currently witnessing in this election.
 


I'm going to miss Obama :(
Voted for him twice and I don't regret it
We had class in the White House for the past eight years. They are going to be missed simply on appearance alone. People may not remember what a joke the United States had become due to the classless, clueless regime that occupied the oval office pre the Obama's. The Obama's returned respectabilty to the White House, of which the right wing wished, and then want to tear right back down. How dare a black family, one that would have been not allowed to even live free just one hundred years ago, behave in a fashion and then become more respected than those who would have held them in captivity?! This President was so cool that Donald Trump felt that this black man could not possibly have been born in the United States, because "america" does not produce black people, black men in general, who do not have a criminal record. This is so that white america can not only prevent them from running for office, but also prevent them from voting as well! Then this family has had the sheer audacity to be embraced by heads of state around the world, debunking all stereotypes while doing so. Who did they think they are? I recommend that everyone watch the interview the best President of The United States we've had in modern times which aired on Real Time with Bill Maher this past evening. This is just to see what a real global leader looks like, sounds like, before the pretenders come back in and begin to piss on the white house floors.
 
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Not sure if this was posted but minus whale:

great video. Maher nailed it -- it is a false equivalency and often just a lazy attempt to sound above it all. it works if you're actually right, like "mcd's isn't great but hey neither is burger King. they serve the same junk. I'm gonna grab something at Panera." but if you're obviously wrong, like "mcd's isn't great but hey neither is french laundry. I'm gonna grab something at taco bell," then you just sound like an idiot.

the difference this election is as clear as ever. to say they're about the same means that either a) you're uninformed, in which case that's honest but lazy and factual information is not hard to find, b) you're unable to process information, in which case god bless you Forrest Gump. we hope your mom helps you vote, or c) you're trolling
 
http://www.wsj.com/articles/nationa...m-playboy-models-affair-allegation-1478309380

The company that owns the National Enquirer, a backer of Donald Trump, agreed to pay $150,000 to a former Playboy centerfold model for her story of an affair a decade ago with the Republican presidential nominee, but then didn’t publish it, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and people familiar with the matter.

The tabloid-newspaper publisher reached an agreement in early August with Karen McDougal, the 1998 Playmate of the Year. American Media Inc., which owns the Enquirer, hasn’t published anything about what she has told friends was a consensual romantic relationship she had with Mr. Trump in 2006. At the time, Mr. Trump was married to his current wife, Melania.

someone the christian conservatives can really believe in! they spent the past 20 years attacking bill Clinton for degrading the white house with affairs and now they are voting for trump. i think that's in the same sermon where Jesus said the church and government should be one and that's it's noble to make lots of money and get lots of possessions.
 
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http://www.wsj.com/articles/nationa...m-playboy-models-affair-allegation-1478309380
someone the christian conservatives can really believe in! they spent the past 20 years attacking bill Clinton for degrading the white house with affairs and now they are voting for trump. i think that's in the same sermon where Jesus said the church and government should be one and that's it's noble to make lots of money and get lots of possessions.
Lol, that's pretty funny. Once I realized that White christianity had nothing to do with the Christ Consciousness, the hypocrisy became even clearer. They have hijacked the message that Christ lived, then made it white. So much so that as many say that if Yeshua showed up today doing what he did, Trump and Guliani would scream to deport him, or throw him in jail.
 
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So trump has the FBI in his pocket.... so all these conspiracy theory folks and tinfoil fashionistas are gonna get dumped out by trump law and order regime
 
Lol, that's pretty funny. Once I realized that White christianity had nothing to do with the Christ Consciousness, the hypocrisy became even clearer. They have hijacked the message that Christ lived, then made it white. So much so that as many say that if Yeshua showed up today doing what he did, Trump and Guliani would scream to deport him, or throw him in jail.
selective hearing/ reading
 
just watched bill Maher from last night. best part was when he said that this election is different, that he disagreed with bush, McCain, and Romney, but at least they were honorable men. and that he and the rest of the country went too far in their attacks on them at times.

the guest in the show made a good point though that didn't really register with Maher. the idea is that this all started when we first started eroding institutions that are really the safeguards of truth and democracy. things like the NY times or political negotiations. and the blame, while it mostly falls on stuff coming from the right wing, also falls on some on the left.

part of it is the parroting of conspiracy theories, which trump has owned this year, but in the past the left has been guilty of pushing non-scientific ideas. anti-vaccination or anti-GMO wasn't a purely right wing thing in the past. true, this year trump has managed to consolidate most of these lunatics on his side, but that lunacy is not traditionally a purely Republican or right-leaning phenomenon. if anything, Republicans in my lifetime have been the party against that, at least before Obama became president.

anyway, the whole point of my long rant is that institutions are key safeguards. and, while we can disagree on liberal/progressive/conservative ideas and what direction to go in, the real danger with trump and the current climate is this legitimization of conspiracies and the fringe. the Republicans are to blame for making their party permissive to the fringe in 2009. but in general both the right and the left need to recognize how dangerous it is and be willing to reject it.
 
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People need to get on the right side of history, not white revisionist history, but the one observed through the ancestors.
 
^^It might've been one of the better Real Times in a while,not in part due to Bill though. Dude was hammered :lol,the Obama interview was worth the wait though :hat

I found myself pretty surprised at how a neocon like David Frum's views on the elections lowkey lined up with my own :lol. On the issue of loss of trust in the media/certain institutions though, tbh, a lot of the concerns many folks were passing off, especially folks on the left, as "conspiracies" and such regarding the DNC, collusion, and the media has eventually been validated by many of the subsequent leaks :lol :{. There's a good reason why trust in a lot of these institutions has eroded and is almost at an all time low across both sides of the aisle,that scale of public disillusionment didn't just come overnight or out of nowhere,it's come after years of taking the public's trust for granted in their actions.

I also agree that veering off on the side that says we need to get rid of all those institutions is also extreme and definitely dangerous in the long run but that shouldn't mean that we shouldn't be trying to hold those same institutional safeguards accountable, imo. It only strengthens our so called democracy when institutions like the media act as watchdogs for the powerful
 
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