Official Stock Market & Economy Thread

[banks2pierce]

I strongly feel there will be no rally next week. I'm betting the house on FAZ and I will pick up HGSI after the crash on the cheap.

 

[nicefro]

Originally Posted by reigndrop

Originally Posted by nicefro

Tomorrow will probably be a down day with a serious rally coming next week. Will load up on FAZ before end of after-hours.

You literally reiterated what DKY just said. Thanks for the great analysis though.

I realize that, it was meant to be more of a bump.

 

[dey know yayo]

just got off the phone with a guy on wall street... private equity firms only have to write their books once a year, they havent since the last cycle in feb08, even before bear stearns. theyve been posting profits and spending recklessly since then... masssssive writedowns coming in the next few weeks in privateequity firms, wont affect the market too much but should really do damage to new york city... stocks like blackrock are toast.

 

[dey know yayo]

banks2pierce- i feel like your strategy is going to lose you a lot of money.

 

[reigndrop]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

just got off the phone with a guy on wall street... private equity firms only have to write their books once a year, they havent since the last cycle in feb 08, even before bear stearns. theyve been posting profits and spending recklessly since then... masssssive writedowns coming in the next few weeks in private equity firms, wont affect the market too much but should really do damage to new york city... stocks like blackrock are toast.

DKY, don't take my word for it but I'm not sure if you should be posting this...

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by reigndrop

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

just got off the phone with a guy on wall street... private equity firms only have to write their books once a year, they havent since the last cycle in feb 08, even before bear stearns. theyve been posting profits and spending recklessly since then... masssssive writedowns coming in the next few weeks in private equity firms, wont affect the market too much but should really do damage to new york city... stocks like blackrock are toast.

DKY, don't take my word for it but I'm not sure if you should be posting this...

Why not?

 

[mftioa]

Originally Posted by reigndrop

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

just got off the phone with a guy on wall street... private equity firms only have to write their books once a year, they havent since the last cycle in feb 08, even before bear stearns. theyve been posting profits and spending recklessly since then... masssssive writedowns coming in the next few weeks in private equity firms, wont affect the market too much but should really do damage to new york city... stocks like blackrock are toast.

DKY, don't take my word for it but I'm not sure if you should be posting this...

there's no private info in there..

I used to be an analyst for a pe firm, the firm (as well as other large pe firms) decided to buy large chunks of high yield debt from investment banks at adiscount to market in Q308 because they couldn't get ideal financing for LBO's. Now that debt is trading at 75% of what they bought it for. That pluslower valuation for private companies means that writedowns for pe firms may be coming. However mark to market is still an issue.

 

[dey know yayo]

like they said, it was no insider info. i just wasn't aware that PE firms still havent written in their books yet. so this crisis hasn't come close tohitting their market caps yet.

the dow jones is worth the same now as it was in 1930, in inflation-adjusted terms (using the pre-clinton methodology for calculating CPI). that means owningthe dow jones industrial average bought you the same amount of goods in 1930 as it does now.

 

[nicefro]

What are some private equity firms worth shorting?

 

[dey know yayo]

well, most of them arent publicly traded.

bx acas ald kcap ainv gain arcc come to mind, but bx is the only real big one and it's already broken down quite a bit.

private equity is part of many big financials, including goldman, jpmorganchase, aig, etc... could spell trouble for weaker financials.

 

[dey know yayo]

BOE cut rates... approaching ZIRP nominally, already there on real yields.... GBP toast.

 

[nicefro]

Decided against FAZ, copped FAS @ $8.58, I shouldn't have hesitated around $7.90.

 

[nicefro]

Good choice!

 

[ieternalv]

DKY - can you recommend other gold stocks/bonds/etc... other than GLD?

 

[nicefro]

And what happened, you guessed it, I got burned by a 3.5% trailing stop. Cool!

 

[vjetti]

DKY - I'm wondering when to get in on TBT. Do you see it as more of a long term trade waiting for Treasury prices to fall? It's already had a good 1month, 15% return. Solid reasoning behind this trade, but what if there's another big drop in the Dow, won't TBT take a big hit with ppl running backto treasuries?

Still watching SRS too, it doesn't seem to be -2X the IYR etf at all today..SRS is down 1.3% and IYR is up 1.3% so at least the direction is right (as of2:30)

AIPC was a good pick btw

, making decent gains unlike most of my otherstocks.

 

[dey know yayo]

people were never running to treasuries. the fed was the biggest buyer of american debt. people will run to gold to preserve wealth. equities declined 35% in2008, gold was up 6%. but the dow probably wont drop big for a while. treasuries are offering negative real yields.

it is clear that trying to play this market short will only result in getting whipsawed. nasdaq broke out today on strong volume and other indices seem posiedfor a big move, waiting for something, most likely stimulus passing the senate. the dow has touched my support line EIGHT times in the last three weeks. thisis not a usual support. this is the fed putting in a price floor.

gold/silver, steel, fert, and oil stocks look best. commodities. oil looks to be bottomed.

some tech stocks look nice too. aapl goog rimm palm bidu

tbt, wait for a pullback, but thats theeee best etf to own. just wait, 3x ultrashort treasuries will start showing up lol.

 

[dey know yayo]

though intraday we look like well pullback a little, maybe sell off into close.

 

[nicefro]

dky, do you set trailing stops, and if so, how loose?

 

[dey know yayo]

no i do everything manually.

last thursday the $500 billion treasury auction was saved with a last minute indirect anonymous masssive volume bid. clearly the fed purchasing its ownnation's debt with printed money.

a US dollar is an IOU from the federal reserve to the taxpayer. when the govt prints money, it is just increasing the amount it owes (which is why dollars insupply are called fed "liabilities"), because there is no goods expansion to back the monetary supply. when the fed purchases treasuries with printedmoney, it is buying debt (us treasuries) with debt (us dollars not backed by goods expansion). this is what is referred to as a PONZI SCHEME.

what does this all mean? two things:
1. the dollar is going to get rocked
2. the flight to safety/liquidity is going to shift to gold (already has started, in fact) from US treasuries.

how do you make money on this? BUY GOLD.

 

[nicefro]

I will resort to the manual method from here on out. I lessened profits on SKF (sold @ 140 opposed to 190+) and FAS, out at $8.83 opposed to $9.50; using thesedamned trailing stops.

Piss me the I need to read NikeTalk's rules. off.

 

[ishmikeyaheard]

DKY what do you think about NVDA? the nvidia stock?

 

[dey know yayo]

it's an ehhhhh.

there are very few equities i'd even consider to trade, on long or short side.

 

[dey know yayo]

i'm 100% bullish now, will not be trading ultrashort ETFs or put options.

buying has returned with VOLUME. very important.

 

[gordon gekko 979]

Dey Know Yayo, you should look into cybersecurity stocks. despite how obama may appear towards the defense budget, he will increase spending on cybersecurity.I'm going to buy stock in ManTech International(MANT). been analyzing it for awhile now, time to make the move.