Official Stock Market & Economy Thread

[nicefro]

We're still in a sucker's rally, if the deal doesn't go through, it's a wrap for my account and the US economy.

 

[andre3001]

Originally Posted by Banks2Pierce

Dow < 3000 at some point this yr.

Really not sure why you feel that way... the fed has been pretty obvious in showing they will not allow the DOW to fall under around 7800-7900. It'sreached that point a half dozen times and jumped. What makes you think it's going to fall that hard without the gov intervening even more? Seems ot methat Obama and the rest of the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the market at this level.

 

[reigndrop]

Originally Posted by Banks2Pierce

Dow < 3000 at some point this yr.

You need to cut the bull, if that were to happen, there'd be riots. That might be what it's going to be worth sometime this year, but with inflatedprices by the Fed, it'll be around 8000.

 

[dey know yayo]

FAZ may be good for monday, we'll probably sell off a little on the news of the stimulus passing. who knows.

but i highly doubt the Dow falls to below 7500. in today's dollars, it surely will, but the fed is inflating our way out of it.

look at TBT. the treasury bubble is collapsing and with tax rates and revenues decreasing and government spending exponentially increasing, it is clearlyevident we will have very high inflation.

i don't think this is a bull trap. volume is confirming price, i think this could be the start of a nice sideways to uptrending market. in nominal terms.

90% of the dow jones's ascent since 1963 has been INFLATION. gold gold gold gold.

oil is bottomed imo.

i have a watch list of 24 equities, nine of them gold stocks, and i now have a position in all 24 of them. yesterday, 23 of those 24 had up days.

 

[dey know yayo]

on any pullback in the indices, i will be buying big positions in SKF FAZ SRS FXP put options.

 

[joe mcknight is ballin]

Originally Posted by Banks2Pierce

Dow < 3000 at some point this yr.

just stop. im waiting for 6800 on monday like youpredicted.

 

[banks2pierce]

I definitely do like DKY's call to buy gold. Dollar's going to crap. Scoop up some value while you can. Still worried it may be called in again, butit's a safer bet than dollar bills.

Awful to see that this country is the reincarnation of Rome. Rome didn't fall, it was outsourced.

 

[banks2pierce]

Originally Posted by Joe McKnight Is BALLIN

Originally Posted by Banks2Pierce

Dow < 3000 at some point this yr.

just stop. im waiting for 6800 on monday like you predicted.

Sry. Do i still get credit if its 7100?

 

[dey know yayo]

banks2pierce- first of all, outsourcing is not america's problem. this is a global crisis, the entire world was financed by american consumption for htelast 20 odd years. america goes down, the rest of the world goes down. what's happening here is we are witnessing the beginning of a change of theinternational reserve currency, from the US dollar to the historical global reserve currency, gold.

i agree with you that our financial system is worthless and that a lot more destruction should justifiably occur to our equities. however, you agree with methat the dollar is going to be devalued. how can you agree with my gold hypothesis (inflation) and still think the market is headed much lower (deflation)concurrently?

the value destruction will not occur through capital destruction (deflation-- nominal price loss), but purchasing power destruction (inflation- nominal pricegain, real price loss). that is why your dow 3k belief holds no water if you also think gold is headed higher.

the argument is inflation vs deflation. looking at some gold equity charts, it looks like i was right-- inflation is definitely seeming to win over already.gold has outpaced the s&p greatly since the november lows. you know what that means? in real terms (inflation-adjusted), the s&p has gone DOWN sinceour november lows, but not in nominal terms. that is inflation.

even clearer and more obvious evidence to support my beliefs can be found by analyzing the federal reserve's balance sheet.

 

[dey know yayo]

another argument against outsourcing is the fact that the dollar is going to depreciate. this makes production cheaper domestically, which inhibitsoursourcing.

our economy and markets are being micro-managed by our federal reserve and government. there will be no market crashes or black swan events, just little tripsup and little trips down.

 

[armenexchange]

srs done for? been takin hits with that 1.
rgld has also been down a bit. holdin on for long term is what i should be doin right?

 

[dey know yayo]

SRS has been done for since jan 21 or 23, i forget which day exactly i said i'm done with that stock. RGLD could break out any day although i do expect aslight pullback in gold first, we will see. if you own RGLD, it is definitely a hold, not a sell.

 

[dey know yayo]

"By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is nosubtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law onthe side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." - John Maynard Keynes

Keynes was a very influential economist who asserted governments could spur long-term economic growth through interventionist fiscal and monetary policy. He isone of the premier big government, pro-spending, pro-inflation economists of all time. And even he recognized the dangers of leaving monetary policy completelyto a centralized force. I always relate to the fact that inflation is a hidden tax-- this is what Keynes was referring to in his quote.

 

[wawaweewa]

J.P. Morgan's Abusive Excutives Bonuses
http://optionsforemployees.com/articles/article.php?id=146http://optionsforemployee...ticles/article.php?id=146

As readers will recall, J.P. Morgan received the first large bail-out from the New York FED of $55 Billion, guaranteed by Bear Stearns' worthless assets, to prop up its own liquidity position and buy Bear Stearns stock.
J.P. Morgan also recently received another $25 Billion in TARP payments from the Treasury.

This article is about how J.P. Morgan's executives , instead of receiving easy to detect cash bonuses, received very large bonuses in the form of Stock Appreciation Rights (SARs) and Restricted Stock Units. These equity compensation securities are not easy to understand or value by other than experts in the field.

SARs are very similar to employee stock options and Restricted Stock Units are very similar to Restricted Stock.

These SARs were granted on January 20, 2009, the day that the J.P.Morgan stock reached its lowest in five years. The stock quickly rebounded as illustrated in the graph below. The arrow indicates the day and the price of the stock when the grant was made.

On January 22, 2008 we see a repetition of the grants of SARs with the stock hitting a low point followed by a substantial rebound in the next days.

Let's examine the size of the bonuses of the top 15 executives, at J.P. Morgan, that were granted on January, 20, 2009 and reported two days later.

See the link below:

http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/19617.htmhttp://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/19617.htm


Stock Appreciation Rights Granted

SARs Amounts Name of Exercise Value 2/4/09
Granted Grantee Price

700,000 Winters 19.49 $11,300,000
700,000 Black 19.49 $11,300,000
500,000 Staley 19.49 $8,100,000
300,000 Scharf 19.49 $4,890,000
250,000 Drew 19.49 $4,075,000
200,000 Miller 19.49 $3,260,000
200,000 Rauchenberger 19.49 $3,260,000
200,000 Smith 19.49 $3,260,000
200,000 Zubrow 19.49 $3,260,000
200,000 Bisignano 19.49 $3,260,000
200,000 Mandelbaum 19.49 $3,260,000
200,000 Cavanaugh 19.49 $3,260,000
200,000 Cutler 19.49 $3,260,000
200,000 Maclin 19.49 $3,260,000
100,000 Daley 19.49 $1,630,000
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total value (2/6/09) of SARs Granted = $81,405,000




Restricted Stock Units Granted

RSUs Amounts Name of Market Value RSUs Value
Granted Grantee of stock 2/4/09 2/4/09

115,474 Staley 24.10 $2,782,923
102,644 Miller 24.10 $2,473,720
102,644 Scharf 24.10 $2,473,720
102,644 Smith 24.10 $2,473,720
102,644 Bisignano 24.10 $2,473,720
102,644 Cavanaugh 24.10 $2,473,720
102,644 Drew 24.10 $2,473,720
102,644 Maclin 24.10 $2,473,720
89,813 Zubrow 24.10 $2,164,493
89,813 Cutler 24.10 $2,164,493
59,662 Daley 24.10 $1,364,542
35,926 Rauchenberger 24.10 $865,816
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total value (2/6/09) of RSUs Granted = $30,500,000

Total value (2/6/09)of Grants to top 15 executives= $111,905,000

These totals are far more than the top executives of Merrill Lynch were to receive as their year end bonuses in cash and equity. The New York Attorney General is supposedly investigating Merrill's executives for criminal wrong doing
Merrill CEO, Thain was granting himself just $10 million whereas at least three Morgan executives exceeded that in equity compensation alone.

An interesting question arises from an examination of the fact that for the past two years grants were made on or around January 20. It just happened that the stock dropped prior to the grant and moved upward immediately after the grants. Its hard to accept the idea that those executives just got very lucky for two years in a row. Yes, I am suggesting collusion in the manipulation of the stock to accommodate the grants of options etc.

Some refer to this as spring-loading the options grants.

Is J.P. Morgan immune from investigation?

Now what we find is that bankers' errand boy extraordinaire CEO, James Dimon, is popping off about the ridiculous idea that J.P. Morgan does not need further bail-out money after Morgan grabbed $55 Billion in the Bear Sterns deal and another $25 Billion of TARP money in banker welfare payments. See

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=azVLk.22AkLIhttp://www.bloomberg.com/...1109&sid=azVLk.22AkLI


If they do not need the bail-outs, let Morgan and Goldman return the welfare payments.

Perhaps also an explanation is in order of why James Dimon is not prosecuted for violations of Title 18 Section 208 U.S.C. in his role as Director of the New York Federal Bank in approving the J.P. Morgan/Bear Stearns deal.


http://law.onecle.com/uscode/18/208.htmlhttp://law.onecle.com/uscode/18/208.html


Neither J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs or any other bank will return the TARP monies because the actual values of the Preferred Stock and Warrant packages were 50% lower than what the taxpayers were forced to pay. And the actual values of those packages have dropped considerably in every case since the welfare payments to Goldman, Morgan , Bank of America etc. were made.

In the case of Bank of America and Merrill, the warrants purchased by the Treasury are down over 88% since the bail-out.

John Olagues

P.S. A full reading of the SEC Form 4.com link above shows that there were sales of stock by most of the 15 executives and Mr. Jamie Dimon at 23.2 in the days following the grants of the SARs and RSUs when the stock was 19.49.

The sales and the grants are trades of equity securities within 6 months and are considered matching trades for Section 16 b of the Securities Act of 1934. Section 16 b requires those profits between the buy and sales to be short swing profits and are returnable to J.P. Morgan.

Now securities attorneys will say that the grants of the SARs and RSUs are exempt under SEC Rule 16b-3. However, the Rule effectively defeats the Statute and therefore is beyond the SEC's Rule making authority and is void. SEC Rule 16 b-3 is just another part of the SEC accommodating the executive compensation abuses including back-dating and spring loading.

If you are a holder of JP Morgan stock you can request that Jamie and his boys return their short swing profits. If they do not return the money, any share holder has a private right of action against Jamie and his boys to get the profits returned to the share holders.

 

[superantigen]

QUESTION:

Do I have to file this year's stock losses on this year's tax documents, or can I postpone and file them on nextyear's tax documents...

 

[nicefro]

DKY, you don't think the rally will continue until at least tuesday afternoon where there should be a sell off?

With announcing of the bailout postponed till Tuesday, there should be some volatility tomorrow but then I'd expect a rally on Tuesday.

 

[mnmballa2323]

DKY- is FAZ a good buy right now just to make a quick $10 on it?

 

[dey know yayo]

like i said, i'm not the one to ask for short term moves.

all i know is i'm bullish and i will be buying on pullbacks.

1. precious metals
2. steel & basic metals
3. ferts
4. oil&gas
5. techs

 

[nicefro]

makes sense man. you're looking in the long-term, i'm looking in the week-term. thanks.

 

[banks2pierce]

I'm nervous for this upcoming week, guys. Looks real bloody.

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by Banks2Pierce

I'm nervous for this upcoming week, guys. Looks real bloody.

B2P I know where you're getting your stuff from.

We shall see.

 

[banks2pierce]

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by Banks2Pierce

I'm nervous for this upcoming week, guys. Looks real bloody.

B2P I know where you're getting your stuff from.

We shall see.

Damn you. Wanted NT infamy. LOL.

 

[dey know yayo]

care to explain?

 

[dey know yayo]

Gold goes down $10/oz more and I'll be loadingggggg up

 

[c5a5d5a5]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

care to explain?

somethin about shadow CDO's that are gonna collapse the dollar. make cash useless...a real end of days scenario

It's serious though.