2009: BUY GOLD. NOW.

[wawaweewa]

Some scenarios to look forward to.

 

[reigndrop]

Originally Posted by nicefro

reign, who is that?

Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter. It's a daily newsletter that comes out every morning.

 

[nikeflightposite]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

nikefligtposite-- the 1929 market highs were not reached again until 1956. there's an analagous example.

is there a slight chance that a miracle might happen andeverything is back to what it normally was? What would need to happen for this to occur?

 

[dey know yayo]

nikeflightposite- nope. wealth that never existed can't suddenly appear in the world.

up 100k today so far on a currency trade i posted in the econmics/stock market thread.

 

[dey know yayo]

scratc that up over 155k on it.

 

[dey know yayo]

scratch that up 230k.

 

[kix4kix]

I cannot believe I slept on this thread....

@ people second guessing OP...Since when has gold not been a good investment?
I will finish browsing thread until further notice but some interesting things said in this thread.

Living liquid is the worst way to live Ben I don't see how you are giving advice with that lifestyle but hey "to each his own" .....I have beenfortunate to have doubled my trust in spite of the poor markets. I am in school though, and apart of the stipulation is I must graduate. I am buying in thePetroleum markets specifically American Owned, as they hold most of the patents on alternative technology initiatives. Low Prices for Big payoffs in midterm.

 

[realmc]

so basically you saying in the next 4 years our entire economy is going to collapse?

way to rain on my parade.

 

[andycrazn]

DKY i read an article that said if gold were adjusted to inflation it would cost around 6k right now but government intervention kept it at the price it isnow. do you agree?

 

[patmc13]

this thread is

 

[andycrazn]

Originally Posted by realmc

so basically you saying in the next 4 years our entire economy is going to collapse?

way to rain on my parade.

basically. we wont get out of a depression until around 2010-2012 and yes we are already in a depression

 

[dey know yayo]

the rest of the world is much more doomed than america. BOE cut rates to 1.5%, all time low. ZIRP ahead.

 

[nikeflightposite]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

the rest of the world is much more doomed than america. BOE cut rates to 1.5%, all time low. ZIRP ahead.

Do you also think things should pick up in 2010-2012?

 

[nicefro]

Up!

 

[cruthik3]

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vFxGybnAJsiA.asfhttp://www.bloomberg.com/...om/cache/vFxGybnAJsiA.asf


What Is Going On With Gold?
by: The Pragmatic Capitalist January 08, 2009 | about stocks: CNY / FXE / GLD / IAU / UUP
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Gold (ETF:GLD) is one of the most fascinating and talked about assets on the planet. There are more conspiracy theories and story lines behind gold than justabout anything on earth. Heck, the followers of the asset even have their own club: the goldbugs. You can't go a day without seeing a commercial aboutgold. If you google "buy gold" you get almost as many results as if you search "buy real estate" (15.4MM vs 16MM).

But gold has been acting funny lately. The conspiracy theories have been running even crazier than usual (from government conspiracy to backwardation) and thegoldbugs are angry. As the world economy deteriorates and the U.S. prints money like it's going out of style, gold has not appreciated. If you had told mein December of 2007 that the global stock market would fall 40% in 2008 I would have told you to buy gold and nothing else because of its safehavencharacteristics. But a funny thing happened on the way to the demise of the global economy: Gold fell.

After rallying into the second quarter of 2008, gold went on a gut wrenching 6 month decline of over 30% - all in the midst of one of the greatest financialcollapses ever. It was, if nothing else, quite a paradox. Even crazier, the US dollar stabilized and then rallied into the end of 2008. Why did this happen?How could gold fall in such an environment?

Gold remains an anti-dollar investment. It's as simple as that. When you buy gold you're essentially buying a hard asset currency with the hope thatone day it will become the world's choice of currency again. If the dollar (UUP) weakens or one day fails the likelihood of a gold based currencyincreases. In essence, buying gold is a way of betting against the greenback and U.S. economic dominance. You can argue the extent of my argument, but youcan't really argue with the inverse correlation in the two assets:

Click to enlarge



The correlation is clear. If you're betting on a rise in gold you're betting on a falling dollar. I've been banking on a higher dollar for over 6months for one reason: it's the best currency in a bad lot. Jim Cramer should change his area of expertise to currencies, because while there isn'talways a bull market in stocks and commodities, there is always a bull market somewhere in the currency market. Trades are paired in Forex and unfortunately,it's hard at this time to make an argument in favor of other currencies over the greenback. And as long as the greenback remains strong it's unlikelythat gold will make any sustainable run.

So why is the dollar the best of the worst? It's quite simple in my mind. Two major currencies on the planet now effectively bear zero interest: the dollarand the Yen. Of the two, the U.S. is the far superior economy. In essence, neither country can really devalue their currency all that much more unless theydecide to print money to the point of insanity and although I believe the U.S. is printing wildly I am not incredibly alarmed as of yet simply because thedestructive deflationary forces at work are so much greater than the inflationary response by the Fed. Inflation is certain to rear its ugly head in the comingyears, but I suspect it will be relatively mild as the economic rebound is slow and the overall monetary destruction of this deflationary phase proves to beincredible.

So, getting back to the greenback - the U.S. was first to enter a recession and it now looks like the world is catching pneumonia from our cold. UnfortunatelyEurope and Asia still have relatively high interest rates (read: room for currency devaluation) and simply don't carry the same status as the U.S. - we arethe reserve currency and the only true AAA nation. Yes, you can certainly make the argument that the U.S. is no longer a AAA rated country, but if we're AAthen what does that make Japan (the world's second largest economy) or Germany? Much worse, in my opinion.

So what we're seeing is essentially a flight to quality in a time of financial distress? Yes, that's right, the U.S. dollar is a higher quality assetright now than just about any currency on the planet. And if you're a U.S. citizen you should be thanking your lucky stars it's THE reserve currencybecause this crisis would likely be even worse if that wasn't the case.

So, before you go placing bets on gold it might be better to research the greenback first.

 

[andycrazn]

Originally Posted by NikeFlightposite

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

the rest of the world is much more doomed than america. BOE cut rates to 1.5%, all time low. ZIRP ahead.

Do you also think things should pick up in 2010-2012?

well its going to get better but we just have to see. this is all part of the business cycle and if your low on cash donate sperm cause thats whatim trying to do. sperm=cash=gold therefore sperm=gold.

 

[superantigen]

Originally Posted by andycrazn

Originally Posted by NikeFlightposite

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

the rest of the world is much more doomed than america. BOE cut rates to 1.5%, all time low. ZIRP ahead.

Do you also think things should pick up in 2010-2012?

well its going to get better but we just have to see. this is all part of the business cycle and if your low on cash donate sperm cause thats what im trying to do. sperm=cash=gold therefore sperm=gold.

You're joking...

 

[nicefro]

How much $$ for donating sperm?

 

[andycrazn]

Originally Posted by nicefro

How much $$ for donating sperm?

depends on the location and if you have a degree or not. a bachelors degree would rack in 500+ per deposit. but yea just do research with yourlocal sperm banks and if they pay or not and the requirements

 

[nicefro]

SKF and SRS both up!

When's the real SKF rally start though?

 

[nicefro]

Now!!!

 

[finnns2003]

Originally Posted by CruThik3

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vFxGybnAJsiA.asfhttp://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vFxGybnAJsiA.asfhttp://www.bloomberg.com/...om/cache/vFxGybnAJsiA.asf


What Is Going On With Gold?
by: The Pragmatic Capitalist January 08, 2009 | about stocks: CNY / FXE / GLD / IAU / UUP
The Pragmatic Capitalist
Add to Your WatchlistAbout this author:

* Profile & More Articles
* Visit: The Pragmatic Capitalist

Become a Contributor Submit an Article
back to yahoo finance add to my yahoo back to cake

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Gold (ETF:GLD) is one of the most fascinating and talked about assets on the planet. There are more conspiracy theories and story lines behind gold than just about anything on earth. Heck, the followers of the asset even have their own club: the goldbugs. You can't go a day without seeing a commercial about gold. If you google "buy gold" you get almost as many results as if you search "buy real estate" (15.4MM vs 16MM).

But gold has been acting funny lately. The conspiracy theories have been running even crazier than usual (from government conspiracy to backwardation) and the goldbugs are angry. As the world economy deteriorates and the U.S. prints money like it's going out of style, gold has not appreciated. If you had told me in December of 2007 that the global stock market would fall 40% in 2008 I would have told you to buy gold and nothing else because of its safehaven characteristics. But a funny thing happened on the way to the demise of the global economy: Gold fell.

After rallying into the second quarter of 2008, gold went on a gut wrenching 6 month decline of over 30% - all in the midst of one of the greatest financial collapses ever. It was, if nothing else, quite a paradox. Even crazier, the US dollar stabilized and then rallied into the end of 2008. Why did this happen? How could gold fall in such an environment?

Gold remains an anti-dollar investment. It's as simple as that. When you buy gold you're essentially buying a hard asset currency with the hope that one day it will become the world's choice of currency again. If the dollar (UUP) weakens or one day fails the likelihood of a gold based currency increases. In essence, buying gold is a way of betting against the greenback and U.S. economic dominance. You can argue the extent of my argument, but you can't really argue with the inverse correlation in the two assets:

Click to enlarge



The correlation is clear. If you're betting on a rise in gold you're betting on a falling dollar. I've been banking on a higher dollar for over 6 months for one reason: it's the best currency in a bad lot. Jim Cramer should change his area of expertise to currencies, because while there isn't always a bull market in stocks and commodities, there is always a bull market somewhere in the currency market. Trades are paired in Forex and unfortunately, it's hard at this time to make an argument in favor of other currencies over the greenback. And as long as the greenback remains strong it's unlikely that gold will make any sustainable run.

So why is the dollar the best of the worst? It's quite simple in my mind. Two major currencies on the planet now effectively bear zero interest: the dollar and the Yen. Of the two, the U.S. is the far superior economy. In essence, neither country can really devalue their currency all that much more unless they decide to print money to the point of insanity and although I believe the U.S. is printing wildly I am not incredibly alarmed as of yet simply because the destructive deflationary forces at work are so much greater than the inflationary response by the Fed. Inflation is certain to rear its ugly head in the coming years, but I suspect it will be relatively mild as the economic rebound is slow and the overall monetary destruction of this deflationary phase proves to be incredible.

So, getting back to the greenback - the U.S. was first to enter a recession and it now looks like the world is catching pneumonia from our cold. Unfortunately Europe and Asia still have relatively high interest rates (read: room for currency devaluation) and simply don't carry the same status as the U.S. - we are the reserve currency and the only true AAA nation. Yes, you can certainly make the argument that the U.S. is no longer a AAA rated country, but if we're AA then what does that make Japan (the world's second largest economy) or Germany? Much worse, in my opinion.

So what we're seeing is essentially a flight to quality in a time of financial distress? Yes, that's right, the U.S. dollar is a higher quality asset right now than just about any currency on the planet. And if you're a U.S. citizen you should be thanking your lucky stars it's THE reserve currency because this crisis would likely be even worse if that wasn't the case.

So, before you go placing bets on gold it might be better to research the greenback first.

interesting piece. ironic that the two currencies i hold right now are dollars and yen and both are at incredibly low interest rates.

 

[joegolfdad]

DKY nice calls on SRS and SKF

 

[finnns2003]

i second that.

 

[dey know yayo]

aint seen nothin yet.. wait for monday, big down day in the market, SPG VNO gonna go down big, SRS SKF gonna skyrocket. at least that's what i'mexpecting. market should be heading back to its novemebr lows in coming weeks.