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Some scenarios to look forward to.
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Originally Posted by nicefro
reign, who is that?
Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo
nikefligtposite-- the 1929 market highs were not reached again until 1956. there's an analagous example.
basically. we wont get out of a depression until around 2010-2012 and yes we are already in a depressionOriginally Posted by realmc
so basically you saying in the next 4 years our entire economy is going to collapse?
way to rain on my parade.
Do you also think things should pick up in 2010-2012?Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo
the rest of the world is much more doomed than america. BOE cut rates to 1.5%, all time low. ZIRP ahead.
well its going to get better but we just have to see. this is all part of the business cycle and if your low on cash donate sperm cause thats whatim trying to do. sperm=cash=gold therefore sperm=gold.Originally Posted by NikeFlightposite
Do you also think things should pick up in 2010-2012?Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo
the rest of the world is much more doomed than america. BOE cut rates to 1.5%, all time low. ZIRP ahead.
You're joking...Originally Posted by andycrazn
well its going to get better but we just have to see. this is all part of the business cycle and if your low on cash donate sperm cause thats what im trying to do. sperm=cash=gold therefore sperm=gold.Originally Posted by NikeFlightposite
Do you also think things should pick up in 2010-2012?Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo
the rest of the world is much more doomed than america. BOE cut rates to 1.5%, all time low. ZIRP ahead.
depends on the location and if you have a degree or not. a bachelors degree would rack in 500+ per deposit. but yea just do research with yourlocal sperm banks and if they pay or not and the requirementsOriginally Posted by nicefro
How much $$ for donating sperm?
interesting piece. ironic that the two currencies i hold right now are dollars and yen and both are at incredibly low interest rates.Originally Posted by CruThik3
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vFxGybnAJsiA.asfhttp://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vFxGybnAJsiA.asfhttp://www.bloomberg.com/...om/cache/vFxGybnAJsiA.asf
What Is Going On With Gold?
by: The Pragmatic Capitalist January 08, 2009 | about stocks: CNY / FXE / GLD / IAU / UUP
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Gold (ETF:GLD) is one of the most fascinating and talked about assets on the planet. There are more conspiracy theories and story lines behind gold than just about anything on earth. Heck, the followers of the asset even have their own club: the goldbugs. You can't go a day without seeing a commercial about gold. If you google "buy gold" you get almost as many results as if you search "buy real estate" (15.4MM vs 16MM).
But gold has been acting funny lately. The conspiracy theories have been running even crazier than usual (from government conspiracy to backwardation) and the goldbugs are angry. As the world economy deteriorates and the U.S. prints money like it's going out of style, gold has not appreciated. If you had told me in December of 2007 that the global stock market would fall 40% in 2008 I would have told you to buy gold and nothing else because of its safehaven characteristics. But a funny thing happened on the way to the demise of the global economy: Gold fell.
After rallying into the second quarter of 2008, gold went on a gut wrenching 6 month decline of over 30% - all in the midst of one of the greatest financial collapses ever. It was, if nothing else, quite a paradox. Even crazier, the US dollar stabilized and then rallied into the end of 2008. Why did this happen? How could gold fall in such an environment?
Gold remains an anti-dollar investment. It's as simple as that. When you buy gold you're essentially buying a hard asset currency with the hope that one day it will become the world's choice of currency again. If the dollar (UUP) weakens or one day fails the likelihood of a gold based currency increases. In essence, buying gold is a way of betting against the greenback and U.S. economic dominance. You can argue the extent of my argument, but you can't really argue with the inverse correlation in the two assets:
Click to enlarge
The correlation is clear. If you're betting on a rise in gold you're betting on a falling dollar. I've been banking on a higher dollar for over 6 months for one reason: it's the best currency in a bad lot. Jim Cramer should change his area of expertise to currencies, because while there isn't always a bull market in stocks and commodities, there is always a bull market somewhere in the currency market. Trades are paired in Forex and unfortunately, it's hard at this time to make an argument in favor of other currencies over the greenback. And as long as the greenback remains strong it's unlikely that gold will make any sustainable run.
So why is the dollar the best of the worst? It's quite simple in my mind. Two major currencies on the planet now effectively bear zero interest: the dollar and the Yen. Of the two, the U.S. is the far superior economy. In essence, neither country can really devalue their currency all that much more unless they decide to print money to the point of insanity and although I believe the U.S. is printing wildly I am not incredibly alarmed as of yet simply because the destructive deflationary forces at work are so much greater than the inflationary response by the Fed. Inflation is certain to rear its ugly head in the coming years, but I suspect it will be relatively mild as the economic rebound is slow and the overall monetary destruction of this deflationary phase proves to be incredible.
So, getting back to the greenback - the U.S. was first to enter a recession and it now looks like the world is catching pneumonia from our cold. Unfortunately Europe and Asia still have relatively high interest rates (read: room for currency devaluation) and simply don't carry the same status as the U.S. - we are the reserve currency and the only true AAA nation. Yes, you can certainly make the argument that the U.S. is no longer a AAA rated country, but if we're AA then what does that make Japan (the world's second largest economy) or Germany? Much worse, in my opinion.
So what we're seeing is essentially a flight to quality in a time of financial distress? Yes, that's right, the U.S. dollar is a higher quality asset right now than just about any currency on the planet. And if you're a U.S. citizen you should be thanking your lucky stars it's THE reserve currency because this crisis would likely be even worse if that wasn't the case.
So, before you go placing bets on gold it might be better to research the greenback first.