Is 49ers' championship window closing?
February, 24, 2014
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Colin Kaepernick and Jim Harbaugh have been one of the NFL's most successful QB-coach tandems.
A high-ranking NFL personnel evaluator I ran across at the NFL scouting combine Thursday morning said he was hearing sensational stories about the San Francisco 49ers. He would not elaborate because the stories were unsubstantiated, but we can assume at least one of them found its way into the news over the weekend.
There is sensational, and then there is trade-the-head-coach sensational. Harbaugh to the Cleveland Browns by trade? The 49ers initially denied ever discussing such a transaction. The Browns issued a non-denial before their owner, Jimmy Haslam, confirmed that such discussions took place. The particulars matter less at this point than the gathering idea that Harbaugh might not be part of San Francisco's longer-term future. It's no secret that Harbaugh and the team's executives have been unable to make progress toward a contract extension amid rumblings of friction.
Here are the questions: Could the 49ers remain a contender without Harbaugh? And is their championship window closing regardless? It's a debate colleague John Clayton and I took up on his radio show at the combine, and one begging for a closer examination. The future of a flagship franchise is at stake.
Three years ago, we heralded Harbaugh's hiring as a "home run" for the 49ers. San Francisco had won just 21 games in the three seasons before Harbaugh took over, a total that ranked 21st when postseason games were counted. San Francisco has 41 regular-season and postseason victories in Harbaugh's first three seasons. That total ranks tied for first with New England. The net gain of 20 victories from the first three-year period to the next leads the NFL. Seattle (plus-1, Denver (plus-17), Detroit (plus-13), Cincinnati (plus-11) and St. Louis (plus-7) are next.
If you only consider those numbers, Harbaugh's long-term employment as 49ers coach should be a foregone conclusion. But if you've been following the 49ers, you know the situation feels tenuous and even volatile. Harbaugh and management have gotten nowhere in contract talks, and this has become known publicly. His name has perhaps conveniently come up in relation to college jobs at USC and Texas. We've heard about how Harbaugh and general manager Trent Baalke "butt heads" within a framework the team says remains healthy and professional. Most recently, 49ers CEO Jed York denied any serious talks with the Browns while insisting this was a one-way conversation. It's a lot to sort through.
Here are my five thoughts on where this team stands now and in the future:
1. The championship window can remain open even if Harbaugh leaves.
Nearly all of the 49ers' key players remain under contract for the coming season. The team is healthy from a salary-cap standpoint. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been a dynamic if inconsistent player; he should improve with additional experience. There's enough talent for this team to remain a championship contender even if Harbaugh isn't part of the long-term equation, though this assumes the 49ers would find a skilled replacement if the coach departed.
Colin Kaepernick will continue to improve as he gains more experience.
While it's easy to say the 49ers were nothing before Harbaugh arrived, most would agree that his predecessor, Mike Singletary, got far less from his players than a more skilled replacement for Harbaugh might get from them. Losing Harbaugh would hurt in a division featuring heavyweight coaches Pete Carroll, Bruce Arians and Jeff Fisher. But if the 49ers' division rivals could find highly skilled coaches, San Francisco could find another one as well. This is a prime job.
With or without Harbaugh, the 49ers will need to draft low-cost replacements for aging players such as Justin Smith and Frank Gore. Will they be able to pull it off? This is where Clayton and I differ some. We went back and forth on his Saturday radio show about whether the 49ers are doing a good enough job maximizing all of the draft choices they've acquired over the years. Clayton is not as sold as I am. We can agree that the 49ers' 2011 draft secured franchise building blocks in Aldon Smith and Kaepernick. Some of the other players selected that year -- Chris Culliver, Kendall Hunter and Bruce Miller -- have become key contributors.
The 2012 draft, however, was a disaster, especially when you consider how well the Seahawks fared in adding Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, Robert Turbin, Jeremy Lane, J.R. Sweezy and potential Red Bryant replacement Greg Scruggs. The 49ers did pretty well in 2013 with first-round choice Eric Reid, but the 10 other selections they made have yet to pay off much. That was by design. If you think the 2013 class will come to resemble the 2012 version, you'll be less optimistic about how the 49ers might fare with their league-high 11 choices this year. But it's too early to pass judgment on that 2013 class, and several of those guys could begin to play bigger roles this season.
2. Mistrust could be a problem.
The Harbaugh-to-Cleveland report from ProFootballTalk left the 49ers wondering where the information originated. Were people close to Harbaugh trying to paint the organization in a bad light as part of an attempt to leverage better contract terms? Were previous reports linking Harbaugh to college jobs part of something similar? Anonymously sourced reports such as the one from PFT and one from CBS Sports should have little impact if all parties are on the same page internally.
In the 49ers' case, there's been enough chatter over a long enough period to fuel mistrust, which can cause imperfect relationships to deteriorate. I think Harbaugh's unrelenting intensity was going to limit his shelf life in San Francisco, anyway. That has been the feeling around the league for coaches with hard-charging styles. An AFC executive put it this way when I asked him early in the season about Harbaugh's staying power: "You don't really know those warts until they don't win. That is when that stuff shows up. It will not show up in the euphoria of back-to-back NFC Championship Games, getting the new stadium, getting the franchise quarterback right."
The surprising part with the 49ers is that warts seem to be showing even without any real adversity. If these are the sorts of things the team is working through after winning 41 games in three seasons, imagine what things will be like during a true down season. It shows just how much the 49ers have been reeling from the double whammy of losing to Seattle in the NFC title game and then watching the Seahawks win it all.
That is why it's even harder to see the relationship enduring in its current form. Having the coach and GM on the same page is critical for maximizing draft choices, one reason the Harbaugh-Baalke relationship is so important.
3. The 2014 season feels like championship or bust.
The 49ers have been reluctant to pay $8 million or more annually for Harbaugh in the absence of a Super Bowl victory. Ownership can rightly say the team has squandered prime opportunities by failing to win a Lombardi Trophy despite three consecutive trips to the NFC Championship Game. Losing at home to the New York Giants in the NFC title game (2011 season) and to the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl (2012 season) was frustrating enough. Losing to the division-rival Seahawks this past season was downright excruciating.
I believe the 49ers' leadership was obsessed with beating the Seahawks before that game, and that Seattle's subsequent victory over Denver in the Super Bowl has turned up the pressure in the short term. "We need to win a damn Super Bowl," is how one team official put it to me. Falling just short of that goal for three consecutive seasons has taken a toll. Having it happen a fourth consecutive time might be too much for the current leadership to bear.
4. The Seahawks aren't helping.
How Seattle won the Super Bowl could be illustrative for the 49ers. The Seahawks were the opposite of uptight. They played simple schemes very well instead of trying to do too much. The 49ers are a lot more complicated in their scheming. That has been one of their strengths, particularly in the running game.
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AP Photo/Elaine Thompson
The Seahawks rode their simpler schemes all the way to a Super Bowl championship.
But in this era of diminished practice time, a simpler approach also has its advantages. That will be additionally true for the 49ers as they move forward with young players acquired through the draft. That thought crystallized in my mind while I listened to Baalke answering a reporter's question about tight end Vance McDonald, a 2013 second-round pick who struggled some as a rookie.
"If you watched us play, you understand how complicated that position is, and how many different hats Vance had to wear this year as a rookie," Baalke explained. "It's a very difficult thing. When you have as much volume as we have and he's put in as many positions that he's put in, it’s such a learning curve. It takes away from your physicality, your physical traits because you're thinking your way through the game. So, I think there’s going to be a big jump with Vance next year and what he's able to bring to this football team."
Baalke wasn't necessarily saying the 49ers needed to simplify things to make better use of their draft choices, but it might not be a bad idea.
5. The 49ers remain in great shape this offseason.
I recently put San Francisco No. 1 on my list of teams in position to enjoy a tremendous offseason. The 49ers own five choices in the first three rounds of the 2014 draft. They will probably wind up with 12 total picks after the NFL hands out compensatory choices. The 49ers are close to re-signing receiver Anquan Boldin, their highest-priority free agent. They should get something from their "redshirt" draft class of 2013, which featured injured players Tank Carradine and Marcus Lattimore.
Last year, San Francisco used its stash of draft choices to move up higher in the first round for Reid. This year, the 49ers need to consider doing something similar at cornerback. They could use another receiver as well, but with so many of them available in a draft packed with underclassmen, there might be less urgency to trade up for one (besides, as one league exec put it, the 49ers could be "gun-shy" at receiver after whiffing on 2012 first-rounder A.J. Jenkins and failing to develop other young players at the position).
The biggest priority now should be to make sure the Harbaugh dynamic continues to be a positive one for the team. If that leads to a contract extension, great. But if Harbaugh's intensity makes him a relative short-timer wherever he goes, we cannot assume his continued employment in San Francisco would automatically keep the 49ers on their current trajectory. If Harbaugh leaves, the 49ers still have enough going for them to contend. The things they must do to succeed into the future -- such as drafting well -- remain pivotal no matter who is roaming the sideline.
