School Me On This Russia/Ukraine Kerfuffle

[keko jones]

Like I said, it sucks that innocent people on both sides are suffering.

On one side, the sanctions are hitting folks hard on the other side the bombs are destroying homes, lives and what free people worked for.

However, I would say this ... i believe, regardless of propaganda ... that the Russian youth have a vast amount of knowledge at their hand. The can understand whats going on. Reagrdless if they cant have an immediate impact on the current situation. Going forward or in the future to come when they can make changes, they would refer back to whats happening and choose a leader that instead of being a dictator is reasonable and doesnt want conflicts unless provoke.

But who knows. Propaganda is a mug and there are a lot of Russians that hate Americans/West just like vice ...

 

[dmbrhs]

TL;DR Russia wants resources, and Ukraine has a lot of said resources. Also, it's the physically dominant land barrier to the EU. If Russia takes Ukraine, there's nothing stopping them from continuing, just for ****s and giggles.

 

[ballinsam23]

I love when people say this, but DON'T have a resolution on this matter.

We get it, Russians are in a **** situation because there leader, but it's there leader that put them in this situation, not Ukraine, not Nato, not the US. What would be the right solution to the matter bro, please tell us, and, then email Nato. I'm sure they're waiting to hear it.

Like I said theres a reason these people are in their position and we’re posting about a war on a sneaker forum. I don’t have a solution.

Has Putin or those with power in Russia flinched yet with these sanctions? No.

 

[keko jones]

Like I said theres a reason these people are in their position and we’re posting about a war on a sneaker forum. I don’t have a solution.

Has Putin or those with power in Russia flinched yet with these sanctions? No.

So sanctions are the only options ... especially since he continues to threat Nuke usage.

This will either cripple the supporters, have Russians fleeing and distancing themselves from Putin and or a revolt. It might not be immediate, but thats the end game.

Having them do nothing will give others an idea of invasion without consequences.

 

[gry60]

The only way to squeeze Putin financially is to squeeze Russia as a whole.

Iraq disagrees:

International sanctions against Iraq - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It took a war to get rid of Saddam Hussein, even though his country was sanctioned for decades.

Iran has been under sanctions since 1979, and their country is still under the same leadership.

Lybia under Gaddafi, North Korea ... let's not even talk about them

You bet Russia has looked around and has been taking measures against being targeted economically by the west, which dominates and controls the global financial system. While the rich Russians Putin needs to protect for his own sake will be taken care of, the general public, who bears the brunt of sanctions and has no impact on the policies enacted by their leaders, will turn against the West the longer sanctions stay in place (like they ALWAYS do).

There are a couple more aspects to this: Russia is the largest country on Earth and there exists an alternative currency system that wasn't a thing 10-15 years ago. Ukraine and Russia are among the largest producers of wheat in the world, and the conflict is already affecting prices on the market; shortages will bring about hunger and unrest in the middle east and Africa (regions that are not fond of western sanctions to begin with). Ukraine supplies most of the neon necessary for chip manufacturing, so there goes the electronics market.

Sanctions are useful, bit only if they are appropriately applied. They don't work if the goal is to get the population to get rid of their tyrant.

 

[John Wick]

TL;DR Russia wants resources, and Ukraine has a lot of said resources. Also, it's the physically dominant land barrier to the EU. If Russia takes Ukraine, there's nothing stopping them from continuing, just for ****s and giggles.

I really don't see how this continues past Ukraine and Belarus but we will see. Its a slippery slope argument.


just saw this on what they oil firms are doing in russia

Russian oil firms move bank accounts to keep business running- sources

Some Russian oil companies have stopped banking with sanctioned lenders including VTB and Sberbank and switched to those that do not face restrictions, including Rosbank, Unicredit and Raiffeisen, five people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

seems the sanctions only really target the regular populations corporations and oligarchs seem to be getting out thru loop holes

sanctioning the whole country that is not in support of the war seems to be a tactic to get the population to flip on Putin.

 

[D Double]

I love the petty stuff

As for sanctions. I'm no expert so someone correct me if I'm wrong but I would assume that certain sanctions are going to hit Russia more than countries like North Korea and Iraq because Russia is a lot more intertwined with the west in many aspects than those other countries.

I doubt North Korea would care if AMD and Intel stop selling them chip for data centers but for Russia that's a big deal since Russia are not making their own chips.

 

[Mr Dink]

TL;DR Russia wants resources, and Ukraine has a lot of said resources. Also, it's the physically dominant land barrier to the EU. If Russia takes Ukraine, there's nothing stopping them from continuing, just for ****s and giggles.

I don’t see Russia going past Ukraine and Belarus because anything past that would basically be the NATO countries, and there’s no way Russia has the balls to go up against all 30 of them even if China were to join.

 

[frshstunna]

Yea let’s cut off money supply, electronics, basic needs in todays world that’ll sure teach Putin to not try to conquer Ukraine!

Its a dumb strategy. Won’t work. Will actually ruin more lives.

I get NATO countries are clearly choosing their sides for the media to see but this isn’t the way.

What’s the way ?

 

[John Wick]

What’s the way ?

no one knows the answers to this war. we all just speculating. I don't see no good ending to all this no matter how many diff ways we analyze this.

I do like this tho

 

[D Double]

This war really showing what a lot of people think

 

[fargin]

Sanctions will merely test whether Russians are loyal to Russia or Putin.

 

[getback]

Sanctions will merely test whether Russians are loyal to Russia or Putin.

If it's anything like the loyalty we've seen Americans have towards Trump......

 

[gry60]

This war really showing what a lot of people think

Yep.

 

[Blake P]

I see people speculating that sanctions won’t hurt Russian elites, Putin specifically, because they’re “rich” but while they may have a ton of Rubles (now worthless), lots of gold (mostly on paper, but some physical), and oil, all of that won’t buy you anything if you are unable to participate in the global economy. Russia is largely an importer and even China doesn’t want to trade with them and get Rubles in return. They can trade oil for Chinese goods, but the new pipeline won’t even be complete for several years. China alone can’t fully insulate Putin, even if they wanted to. I’m no expert in this, but the longer this continues it’s much worse for Putin and oligarchs than most imagine. The world called his bluff, IMHO.

 

[ballinsam23]

Very few elite actually have hundreds of millions in cash. Especially when it comes to a currency (the ruble) that has been depreciating for decades.

A lot of it is in assets throughout the world or in off shore accounts. You would have to be an idiot to have these sanctions actually affect you the way it affects the ordinary citizen there. These guys are steps ahead of any of us, probably knew exactly when Putin would invade.

 

[8tothe24]

Iraq disagrees:

International sanctions against Iraq - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It took a war to get rid of Saddam Hussein, even though his country was sanctioned for decades.

Iran has been under sanctions since 1979, and their country is still under the same leadership.

Lybia under Gaddafi, North Korea ... let's not even talk about them

You bet Russia has looked around and has been taking measures against being targeted economically by the west, which dominates and controls the global financial system. While the rich Russians Putin needs to protect for his own sake will be taken care of, the general public, who bears the brunt of sanctions and has no impact on the policies enacted by their leaders, will turn against the West the longer sanctions stay in place (like they ALWAYS do).

There are a couple more aspects to this: Russia is the largest country on Earth and there exists an alternative currency system that wasn't a thing 10-15 years ago. Ukraine and Russia are among the largest producers of wheat in the world, and the conflict is already affecting prices on the market; shortages will bring about hunger and unrest in the middle east and Africa (regions that are not fond of western sanctions to begin with). Ukraine supplies most of the neon necessary for chip manufacturing, so there goes the electronics market.

Sanctions are useful, bit only if they are appropriately applied. They don't work if the goal is to get the population to get rid of their tyrant.

Difference being that those other nations have not embedded themselves into the world financial trade systems the way Russia has. Closest would be Iraq but that is only due to oil. Even then they are more aligned to the geopolitical powers of the Middle East. And I don’t see anyone cutting off the oil from Russia as we speak. Their population has become accustomed to living the western lifestyle to the extent they are allowed. And the oligarchs who can bring about change are greatly impacted. The world just needs one of these oligarchs still in the inner circle to crack and pay a military leader who crack a very large sum of money with a promise out of the country. And magically Putin has suicided himself. There is a reason he won’t let anyone near him and is rumored to be living in a bunker with his family.

 

[Blake P]

Very few elite actually have hundreds of millions in cash. Especially when it comes to a currency (the ruble) that has been depreciating for decades.

A lot of it is in assets throughout the world or in off shore accounts. You would have to be an idiot to have these sanctions actually affect you. These guys are steps ahead of any of us, probably knew exactly when Putin would invade.

Some are already having their western assets seized. It will be interesting to see whether that pressure is turned up, as it should. They are more likely to distance themselves than try to help, IMO.

Ikea and the owner of T.J. Maxx are the latest retailers to halt Russia operations. (Published 2022)

More European and American businesses have been ceasing sales and other operations in Russia and expressing their support for the Ukrainian people.

www.nytimes.com

Russia's war spurs corporate exodus, exposes business risks

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown business plans into disarray and forced a growing number of the world’s best known brands to pull out of a country that’s become a global outcast.

apnews.com

 

[iheartboost]

Iraq disagrees:

International sanctions against Iraq - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It took a war to get rid of Saddam Hussein, even though his country was sanctioned for decades.

Iran has been under sanctions since 1979, and their country is still under the same leadership.

Lybia under Gaddafi, North Korea ... let's not even talk about them

You bet Russia has looked around and has been taking measures against being targeted economically by the west, which dominates and controls the global financial system. While the rich Russians Putin needs to protect for his own sake will be taken care of, the general public, who bears the brunt of sanctions and has no impact on the policies enacted by their leaders, will turn against the West the longer sanctions stay in place (like they ALWAYS do).

There are a couple more aspects to this: Russia is the largest country on Earth and there exists an alternative currency system that wasn't a thing 10-15 years ago. Ukraine and Russia are among the largest producers of wheat in the world, and the conflict is already affecting prices on the market; shortages will bring about hunger and unrest in the middle east and Africa (regions that are not fond of western sanctions to begin with). Ukraine supplies most of the neon necessary for chip manufacturing, so there goes the electronics market.

Sanctions are useful, bit only if they are appropriately applied. They don't work if the goal is to get the population to get rid of their tyrant.

I don't know man. Are we really comparing Russia, the second largest military in the world, a modern economic powerhouse to Lybia, Iraq, Iran and North Korea? Surely Russia is in a waaaaay better position then those countries, AND while sanctions have hurt those other countries over the years, Russians have been under the current sanctions for a week now and outrage is sparking all over social media. Somebody posted this earlier:



I believe there are many layers to the goal of sanctions against Russia. On the outside, to us, we see it as the people will use it to overthrow Putin, but I believe the Nato and the West sees it as far more complex. The sanctions are working against the people because a lot of them are reporting it, we just don't know how effective it is at the government level yet.I believe the people of Russia are way more smarter and stronger in thinking than those other countries. I don't know about people over throwing a leader, but the oligarchs continue to lose money, and I can see them putting a hit out on Putin.

 

[Coupé It]

 

[gry60]

Difference being that those other nations have not embedded themselves into the world financial trade systems the way Russia has. Closest would be Iraq but that is only due to oil. Even then they are more aligned to the geopolitical powers of the Middle East. And I don’t see anyone cutting off the oil from Russia as we speak. Their population has become accustomed to living the western lifestyle to the extent they are allowed. And the oligarchs who can bring about change are greatly impacted. The world just needs one of these oligarchs still in the inner circle to crack and pay a military leader who crack a very large sum of money with a promise out of the country. And magically Putin has suicided himself. There is a reason he won’t let anyone near him and is rumored to be living in a bunker with his family.

It sounds like you don't know the realities of living in an non-democratic society.

The fact is, oligarchs don't have the power you think they have. Trying to off Putin comes with its own set of negative consequences, chief among them the reality that your entire family is fair play if you miss. And I mean extended family: guys like Putin don't hesitate to eliminate entire genealogical trees to keep power.

In addition it doesn't even matter where oligarchs are on the planet: the assassinations orchestrated by Russian intelligence were a way to eliminate/get revenge on Putin's enemies, but they were also a way to send a message to those who think about betraying him, and that **** resonates.

Attempts to overthrow a president are never a lone wolf thing. The decision to do that has to be shared by the majority of the closest folks around him just to increase the chances of success, and Putin is extremely paranoid already.

The other way to get rid of him is to turn the legislature against him and his war. I think targeted sanctions can work there. I wouldn't expect the Russian people to do something other than beg the international community to turn down the heat.

 

[Coupé It]

They’re going to massacre the Ukrainians man.

 

[8tothe24]

It sounds like you don't know the realities of living in an non-democratic society.

The fact is, oligarchs don't have the power you think they have. Trying to off Putin comes with its own set of negative consequences, chief among them the reality that your entire family is fair play if you miss. And I mean extended family: guys like Putin don't hesitate to eliminate entire genealogical trees to keep power.

In addition it doesn't even matter where oligarchs are on the planet: the assassinations orchestrated by Russian intelligence were a way to eliminate/get revenge on Putin's enemies, but they were also a way to send a message to those who think about betraying him, and that **** resonates.

Attempts to overthrow a president are never a lone wolf thing. The decision to do that has to be shared by the majority of the closest folks around him just to increase the chances of success, and Putin is extremely paranoid already.

The other way to get rid of him is to turn the legislature against him and his war. I think targeted sanctions can work there. I wouldn't expect the Russian people to do something other than beg the international community to turn down the heat.

That’s the point. Crush them with enough economic sanctions that enough of the top people say enough of him. Let me clarify that I don’t literally mean 1 person. I mean it starts with one person talking to one person and coming to an agreement. It has to be between trusted people because as you say Putin would have them killed if he ever gets wind. Then it grows to more and more of a trusted inner circle. Will he get killed most likely not but a coup could happen. Does he deserve to be killed, **** yes. Also, I don’t think it is coincidence that Zelensky would reveal that they had insider sources within the FSB that tipped them on the Chechen kill squadron. I think it was directed, true or not, to drive Putins paranoia that someone within is out to get him. That only further isolates him from his closest confidants and degrades their trust of him as well.

To be honest I thought the sanctions idea was weak at best. I didn’t expect the worlds to come to gather with as much sanctions as they have. Without the EU leading it, it neve would have happened. And between the crypto market and Chinese relations, there are ways to skirt enough money to maintain his military infrastructure. There are going to be two factions of rich and powerful in Russia right now. Those who are afraid of losing their material things and will call for end of war and those who stand by Putin no matter what. I’m also a realist and know the USA connect get into a war with Russia. So we have a situation where our only tool is sanctions. Therefore we must use it.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Russian Finance bros down bad right now

 

[D Double]