Sounds like he might have miscalculated Ukraine’s resilience
That's my reading as well. He didn't expect this level of resistance from Ukrainian Babushka and her gang.
I think Russia will win the war, but it will lose so much more:
1. Internal resistance to Putin will only grow. Remember, a lot of Russians have family and friends in Ukraine.
2. Ukrainians will forever resist an occupation.
3. The West ain't ******* with them anymore.
4. The Oligarchs will eventually abandon Putin because there is no honor among thieves. When is gets real, they'll choose their money and the comfort it buys them in the West than go down with Putin's burning ship. In the age of globalization, only class identity matters. These oligarchs are more bound to the global elite than their poor brethren in Russia.
5. And Russia is about to lose its future to China. Putin's imperial desires will eventually clash with China's own imperialist goals. Also, with the West turning it's back on Russia, Putin now more than ever will need the backing and support of China, and knowing this, China will eventually start to put the squeeze on them. Think of the recent relationship between Russia and Belarus for a like comparison.
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